Wednesday, February 6, 2013

College Basketball 2012-13 - SEC Progress Report

Florida (18-3, 8-1, RPI=5, Sag=3)
Top 25 Wins:  Marquette
26-50 Wins:  Wisconsin, Middle Tennessee, Missouri, Ole Miss
51-100 Wins:  Florida State, Air Force, Texas A&M
Losses: Arizona, Kansas State, Arkansas
Road/Neutral:  8-3
Margin:  +21.3
Bottom Line:  Florida looks like a top seed, with all 18 of their wins coming by 13 points or more, but last night's loss to Arkansas and the weak SEC are going to make that an uphill climb now. 

Missouri (16-5, 5-3, RPI=34, Sag=30)
Top 25 Wins: None
26-50 Wins: VCU, Illinois
51-100 Wins: Tennessee State, Bucknell, Stanford, Alabama
Losses: Louisville, UCLA, Ole Miss, Florida, LSU
Road/Neutral: 3-5
Margin:  +9.8
Bottom Line:  There is still some work to do, but the Tigers are a good team playing for seeding at this point.  They lack a signature win and only have Florida at home and a potential match-up with the Gators in the SEC tournament to get that.  On the plus side, they lost games without Lawrence Bowers, so if they can get on a roll now that he is back, the Committee will consider that.

Kentucky (16-6, 7-2, RPI=44, Sag=17)
Top 25 Wins:  None
26-50 Wins:  Ole Miss
51-100 Wins:  Maryland, Tennessee, Texas A&M
Losses:  Duke, Notre Dame, Baylor, Louisville, Texas A&M, Alabama
Road/Neutral: 5-4
Margin:  +13.7
Bottom Line:  Winning 6 of 7 has the Wildcats back on the right side of the Bubble, but they shouldn't get comfortable.  They still lack a signature win and only have 4 Top 100 wins total.  5 more Top 100 games remain before the SEC tournament, including two with Florida and a home game against Missouri.  An 0-3 record in those games will have Calipari sweating it a little as Selection Sunday approaches.

Ole Miss (17-4, 6-2, RPI=45, Sag=31)
Top 25 Wins:  None
26-50 Wins:  Missouri
51-100 Wins:  Rutgers, Tennessee, Arkansas, Tennessee
Losses:  Middle Tennessee, Indiana State, Kentucky, Florida
Road/Neutral:  6-3
Margin:  +13.5
Bottom Line:  The Rebels resume is highlighted by their 17-4 record, but fairly unimpressive otherwise.  Besides a trip to Missouri, the remaining schedule is soft, so the RPI is going to have a hard time climbing.  They also can't afford to lose too many more, or the RPI will take a devastating hit.  Safe for now, but this is a team worth monitoring.

Arkansas (14-8, 5-4, RPI=82, Sag=53)
Top 25 Wins:  Oklahoma, Florida
26-50 Wins:  None
51-100 Wins:  Tennessee
Losses:  Arizona State, Wisconsin, Syracuse, Michigan, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Alabama
Road/Neutral:  0-7
Margin:  +8.7
Bottom Line:  Last night's win at Florida gives them 2 quality wins.  Errmmmm, that's it though.  The Razorbacks are an example of a maddening team that can lose to South Carolina but beat Florida.  Look closer...Arkansas is 0-7 away from home, but 14-1 when sleeping in their own beds.  If they can reel off a 7-2 finish, we can talk.

Alabama (13-7, 6-2, RPI=60, Sag=56)
Top 25 Wins:  None
26-50 Wins:  Kentucky
51-100 Wins:  Villanova, South Dakota State, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Arkansas
Losses:  Cincinnati, Dayton, VCU, Mercer, Tulane, Missouri, Tennessee
Road/Neutral:  5-4
Margin:  +4.3
Bottom Line:  They lack the top wins of say Arkansas, but have 6 top 100 RPI wins to stay in the conversation.  The bad news is that only two games remain against the Top 100, so Alabama's best chance is an 8-2 or 9-1 finish and win at Ole Miss or Florida to add to the resume.  Remember, Washington was left out last year after a 14-4 season in the PAC-12 and the 2012-13 SEC is eerily similar to the 2011-12 PAC-12 in strength.

NOTE:  Only teams with a top 75 RPI or Sagarin are listed

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