Wednesday, February 13, 2013

College Basketball 2012-13 - PAC 12 Progress Report

Arizona (20-3, 8-3, RPI=8, Sag=15)
Top 25 Wins:  Florida, Miami, FL, Colorado, San Diego State
26-50 Wins:  Southern Miss
51-100 Wins:  UTEP, Long Beach State, Arizona State, Washington, Stanford
Losses: Oregon, UCLA, California
Road/Neutral:  9-1
Margin:  +11.9
Bottom Line:  The Wildcats seem a lock for a top 3 seed, but need to avoid more performances like the one against Cal.  The remaining schedule isn't daunting, but a PAC-12 Title would be helpful in nailing down a 2 seed.

UCLA (18-6, 8-3, RPI=40, Sag=45)
Top 25 Wins: Colorado, Arizona
26-50 Wins: Missouri
51-100 Wins: Indiana State, Long Beach State, Stanford, California, Washington
Losses: Georgetown, Cal Poly, San Diego State, Oregon, Arizona State, USC
Road/Neutral: 5-3
Margin:  +7.6
Bottom Line:  The Bruins can feel fairly safe, needing to notch just a couple more wins down the stretch to secure a berth.  5 of the final 7 are on the road, so nothing is for certain, but this could be a dangerous draw in the Field of 68.

Oregon (19-5, 8-3, RPI=42, Sag=47)
Top 25 Wins:  UNLV, Arizona
26-50 Wins:  UCLA
51-100 Wins:  Nebraska, Arizona State, Washington
Losses:  UTEP, Cincinnati, Stanford, California, Colorado
Road/Neutral:  4-4
Margin:  +10.2
Bottom Line:  A recent skid coincided with the loss of PG Dominic Artis.  His unknown status with a foot injury may factor into the seeding of the Ducks either positively or negatively depending on if he gets back before the Tourney.  The Ducks, like UCLA, are fairly safe and just need to win the games they should to be dancing this year.

Colorado (16-7, 6-5, RPI=18, Sag=46)
Top 25 Wins:  Colorado State
26-50 Wins:  Oregon
51-100 Wins:  Baylor, Murray State, Air Force, Stanford, California
Losses:  Wyoming, Kansas, Arizona, Arizona State, UCLA, Washington, Utah
Road/Neutral:  7-6
Margin:  +5.2
Bottom Line:  An RPI darling, the Buffaloes are not quite as good as that metric might say, but similar to UCLA and Oregon, they just need to take care of business and they will be in the Field.  With 5 of 7 remaining against RPI top 67 teams, the lofty RPI will likely remain barring an 0-7 collapse.

Arizona State (18-6, 7-4, RPI=67, Sag=75)
Top 25 Wins:  Colorado
26-50 Wins:  UCLA
51-100 Wins:  Arkansas, California
Losses:  Creighton, DePaul, Oregon, Arizona, Washington, Stanford
Road/Neutral:  4-3
Margin:  +6.8
Bottom Line:  The Sun Devils resume lacks meat and the dangerously low RPI make them a longshot.  Their top 3 wins are all home wins.  They do travel to Colorado and UCLA to go for season sweeps, as well as a trip to Arizona, so there are some road opportunities.  They need to capitalize on those and have some PAC-12 Tourney success to be in the Bubble discussion.

California (14-9, 6-5, RPI=59, Sag=54)
Top 25 Wins:  Arizona
26-50 Wins:  Oregon
51-100 Wins:  None
Losses:  Wisconsin, UNLV, Creighton, Harvard, UCLA, Washington, Stanford, Colorado, Arizona State
Road/Neutral:  7-5
Margin:  +2.7
Bottom Line:  The win over Arizona got them back into the discussion, but the under-achieving Bears still have a lot of work to be done.  With a 2-9 record against the Top 100, Cal needs to secure more quality wins to close the regular season and potentially make a PAC-12 Tourney final run.

Stanford (15-9, 6-5, RPI=56, Sag=44)
Top 25 Wins:  None
26-50 Wins:  Oregon
51-100 Wins:  Northern Iowa, California, Arizona State
Losses:  Belmont, Missouri, Minnesota, NC State, USC, UCLA, Washington, Colorado, Arizona
Road/Neutral:  5-7
Margin:  +5.4
Bottom Line:  Stanford and California are of similar resumes, but with Cal having a signature win and the Cardinal just having a few more overall quality wins.  So what I said about Cal applies to Stanford.  Plus the two meet in the season finale. 

Washington, USC, Washington State, Oregon State, and Utah are not under consideration at this time.

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