Wednesday, February 29, 2012

NCAA Field of 68 - February 29, 2012 Edition

  • Kentucky overall #1, followed by Syracuse, Duke and Kansas
  • Last 4 In - Mississippi State, Texas, St. Joseph's and Colorado State
  • Next 6 - Xavier, Miami, FL, Arizona, South Florida, Illinois,
  • One First Four game moved to 11 line to accomodate travel, Dayton, BYU and Cincinnati moved to 12 line, but ahead of these teams in my S-curve (although I go back and forth on BYU)
  • I decided to go into the prognostication business and have moved VCU in my field, but as Colonial Tourney champ over Drexel.  Just trying to liven the bottom of the bracket up
West Regional
Omaha
(1)  Kansas (16) Texas-Arlington
(8)  New Mexico vs (9) California
Albuquerque
(5)  Florida vs (12) Dayton
(4)  Wichita State vs (13)  Middle Tennessee
Columbus
(6)  Gonzaga vs (11) Iona
(3)  Georgetown vs (14)  Belmont
Columbus
(7)  Kansas State vs (10)  Connecticut
(2)  Michigan State vs (15)  Valparaiso

Midwest Regional
Louisville
(1)  Kentucky vs (16)  Mississippi Valley State/UNC-Asheville
(8)  Memphis vs (9)  St. Mary's
Portland
(5)  Temple vs (12) Cincinnati
(4)  UNLV vs (13)  Washington
Pittsburgh
(6)  Florida State vs (11)  Mississippi State/St. Joseph's
(3)  Ohio State vs (14)  Davidson
Omaha
(7)  Purdue vs (10) West Virginia
(2)  Missouri vs (15) Montana

South Regional
Greensboro
(1)  Duke vs (16)  Stony Brook/Savannah State
(8)  Alabama vs (9)  Southern Miss
Nashville
(5)  Louisville vs (12)  Texas/Colorado State
(4)  Michigan vs (13)  VCU
Albuquerque
(6)  San Diego State vs (11)  St. Louis
(3)  Baylor vs (14)  Nevada
Louisville
(7)  Creighton  vs (10)  Northwestern
(2)  Marquette vs (15)  Akron

East Regional
Pittsburgh
(1)  Syracuse vs (16)  Long Island
(8)  Virginia vs (9)  Iowa State
Portland
(5)  Vanderbilt vs (12)  BYU
(4)  Wisconsin vs (13)  Long Beach State
Nashville
(6)  Murray State vs (11)  Seton Hall
(3)  Indiana vs (14)  Oral Roberts
Greensboro
(7)  Notre Dame vs (10)  Harvard
(2)  North Carolina vs (15)  Bucknell

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Bubble Smack

I did a little research on the at-large teams from the past 4 years who were seeded 10 or lower.  There were 30 such teams, 22 from power conferences, 8 from mid-majors.  I looked at the Nitty Gritty details that the committee received and looked for trends.  Here is what I found.

29 of the 30 teams had at least 6 combined road/neutral wins.  Bubble teams currently at 5 include Connecticut, Mississippi State, Washington, Miami, FL and Central Florida.  Bubble teams currently at 4 include Texas, Illinois, South Florida and Colorado State.

20 of the 22 power conference teams had at least 3 top 50 RPI wins.  7 of the 8 non-power conference teams had at least 2 RPI top 50 wins.  Bubble teams currently short of this criteria include Northwestern(2), Miami, FL(2), Mississippi State(2), LSU(2), BYU(1), South Florida(1), Arizona(1), St. Louis(1), VCU(1), Iona(1), NC State(1), California(0), Washington(0), Oregon(0), Drexel(0).  In 2011, UAB and Clemson each had zero, so the expansion to 68 teams may have loosened this criteria.

28 of the 30 teams had at least 6 RPI top 100 wins, 29 of the 30 had 5, all had 4.  Bubble teams less than 6 include St. Mary's(5), BYU(5), South Florida(5), LSU(5), Iona(5), Iowa State(4), Texas(4), Arizona(4), NC State(4), VCU(4), Drexel(4), Washington(3), Miami, FL(3), Central Florida(3), Oregon(2).

The RPI of 51 for VCU was the lowest in the last 4 years by a mid-major, with 44 being the 2nd lowest.

Major conference teams with RPI's of 61, 63, 64 and 67 have made it in the last 4 years, essentially one above 60 each year.  Coincidentally, no major conference team with an RPI in the top 50 has not been selected in the past 4 years, although there were 3 the year before and 4 the year before that, all higher than 38th.

Although top 25 RPI wins are not on the Nitty Gritty, 25 of 30 teams had at least 1 of those.

I know this isn't a huge sample size, but it gives some guidance.  It appears a team with a higher RPI can get in if they meet or excel in all other categories.  A team with a lower RPI can usually have one category slip-up.

Still a long way to go, but for some, time is running out.

Modified Tourney Tracker - Record vs Teams Under Consideration

Due to a family vacay and brief illness, I apologize for the lack of updates.  Time to get back at it!!

Here is a modified version of the Tourney Tracker stripping away those teams no longer in serious consideration for the Field of 68.  This can be a factor the committee looks at when evaluating Bubble Teams.  For the purposes of this schedule, I am a one-man committee and will do my best to determine which teams are still under consideration.  For one-bid leagues, the first place team is considered part of the field.  Right now, I have it at 79 teams for 68 spots.

ACC (6)
North Carolina (12-4) - Michigan State(N), Wisconsin(H), UNC-Asheville(A), Mississippi Valley State(H), Long Beach State(H), Texas(H), Miami, FL(H), NC State(H), Virginia(H), Miami, FL(A), NC State(A), Virginia(A)
Duke (11-4) - Belmont(H), Michigan State(N), Davidson(H), Michigan(N), Kansas(N), Washington(N), Colorado State(H), Virginia(H), North Carolina(A), NC State(H), Florida State(A)
Virginia (6-4) - Michigan(H), Drexel(N), Oregon(A), LSU(A), Miami, FL(H), NC State(A)
Florida State (6-6) - Central Florida(H), North Carolina(H), Duke(A), Virginia(H), Miami, FL(H), NC State(A)

North Carolina State (3-8) - Texas(N), UNC-Asheville(H), Miami, FL(A)

Miami (2-8) - Duke(A), Florida State(H)

Big 12 (6)
Baylor (11-5) - San Diego State(H), Texas-Arlington(H), Northwestern(A), BYU(A), St. Mary's(N), West Virginia(N), Mississippi State(N), Kansas State(A), Texas(H), Iowa State(H), Texas(A)

Missouri (9-3) - Notre Dame (N), California(N), Illinois(H), Iowa State(A), Texas(H), Baylor(A), Texas(A), Kansas(H), Baylor(H)
Kansas (11-5) - Georgetown(N), Long Beach State(H), South Florida(H), Ohio State(H), Kansas State(H), Iowa State(H), Baylor(H), Texas(A), Baylor(A), Kansas State(A), Missouri(H)
Texas (4-9) - Temple(H), Texas-Arlington(H), Iowa State(H), Kansas State(H)
Kansas State (6-7) - Alabama(H), Long Beach State(N), Missouri(H), Texas(H), Baylor(A), Missouri(A)

Iowa State (5-5) - Mississippi Valley State(H), Texas(H), Kansas(H), Kansas State(H), Kansas State(A)

Big East (10)
Syracuse (13-1) - Florida(H), Bucknell(H), Marshall(H), NC State(A), Seton Hall(H), Marquette(H), Cincinnati(A), West Virginia(H), Georgetown(H), Connecticut(H), Louisville(A), South Florida(H), Connecticut(A)
Connecticut (7-9) - Florida State(N), Harvard(H), UNC-Asheville(N), West Virginia(H), South Florida(A), Notre Dame(A), Seton Hall(H)
Marquette (8-5) - Wisconsin(A), Washington(N), Louisville(H), South Florida(H), Seton Hall(H), Cincinnati(H), Connecticut(A), West Virginia(A)

Georgetown (9-5) - Memphis(N), Alabama(A), Savannah State(H), Memphis(H), Louisville(A), Marquette(H), Connecticut(H), South Florida(H)
West Virginia (7-9) - Akron(H), Oral Roberts(H), Kansas State(A), Miami,FL(H), Georgetown(H), Marshall(H), Cincinnati(H)
Seton Hall (6-8) - VCU(H), St. Joseph's(A), Dayton(A), West Virginia(H), Connecticut(H), Georgetown(H)

Louisville (6-6) - Long Beach State(H), Vanderbilt(H), Memphis(H), Seton Hall(A), Connecticut(H), West Virginia(A)
Cincinnati (5-6) - Notre Dame(H), Georgetown(A), Connecticut(A), Seton Hall(H), Louisville(H)
Notre Dame (9-6) - Mississippi Valley State(H), South Florida(H), Louisville(A), Syracuse(H), Seton Hall(A), Connecticut(A), Marquette(H), West Virginia(A), West Virginia(H)

South Florida (2-8) - Seton Hall(H), Cincinnati(H)

Big Ten (8)
Ohio State (9-6) - Florida(H), Duke(H), Valparaiso(H), Northwestern(H), Indiana(H), Michigan(H), Wisconsin(A), Purdue(H), Illinois(H)
Michigan State (9-5) - Florida State(H), Gonzaga(A), Indiana(H), Wisconsin(A), Purdue(H), Michigan(H), Ohio State(A), Wisconsin(H), Purdue(A)

Indiana (10-4) - NC State(A), Kentucky(H), Notre Dame(A), Stony Brook(H), Savannah State(H), Ohio State(H), Michigan(H), Purdue(A), Illinois(H), Northwestern(H)
llinois (4-9) - Gonzaga(H), Northwestern(A), Ohio State(H), Michigan State(H)
Wisconsin (9-6) - BYU(N), UNLV(H), Mississippi Valley State(H), Savannah State(H), Purdue(A), Northwestern(H), Illinois(A), Indiana(H), Ohio State(A)
Purdue (8-8) - Iona(N), Temple(N), MiamiFL(H), Illinois(H), Northwestern(A), Northwestern(H), Illinois(A), Michigan(A)

Michigan (10-6) - Memphis(N), Iowa State(H), Wisconsin(H), Northwestern(H), Michigan State(H), Purdue(A), Indiana(H), Illinois(H), Ohio State(H), Northwestern(A)
Northwestern (6-10) - LSU(H), Mississippi Valley State(H), Stony Brook(H), Seton Hall(A), Michigan State(H), Illinois(A)

SEC (6)
Kentucky (9-1) - Kansas(N), North Carolina(H), Louisville(H), Alabama(H), LSU(A), Florida(H), Vanderbilt(A), Mississippi State(A), Vanderbilt(H)
Vanderbilt (8-6) - Oregon(H), NC State(N), Bucknell(H), Davidson(A), Marquette(A), Alabama(A), Middle Tennessee(H), LSU(H)
Florida (7-3) - Arizona(H), Mississippi Valley State(H), Florida State(H), LSU(H), Mississippi State(H), Vanderbilt(H), Alabama(A)
Alabama (5-8) - Wichita State(N), Purdue(N), VCU(H), LSU(H), Mississippi State(H)
Mississippi State (5-6) - Arizona(N), West Virginia(H), Alabama(H), Vanderbilt(A), LSU(H)

LSU (3-7) - Marquette(H), Alabama(H), Mississippi State(H)

PAC-12 (4)
California (4-4) - Weber State(H), Oregon(A), Washington(A), Oregon(H)
Arizona (2-7) - Valparaiso(H), California(A)

Washington (3-6) - Oregon(H), Arizona(A), Arizona(H)
Oregon (2-6) - Arizona(A), Washington(H)


Atlantic 10 (5)
Xavier (5-7) - Vanderbilt(A), Purdue(H), Cincinnati(H), St. Joseph's(H), Dayton(H)
Temple (5-4) - Wichita State(N), Duke(H), St. Louis(A), St. Joseph's(H), Xavier(H)

St. Louis (4-3) - Washington(H), Xavier(A), Dayton(H), St. Joseph's(A)
Dayton (4-5) - Alabama(H), St. Louis(H), Temple(A), Xavier(H)

St. Joseph's (4-6) - Creighton(H), Drexel(H), Dayton(H), Temple(H)

Colonial (2)
VCU (2-3) - Akron(A), South Florida(H)

Drexel (1-2) - VCU(H)

Conference USA (4)
Memphis (6-7) - Belmont(H), Miami, FL(A), Southern Miss(H), Marshall(H), Xavier(H), Marshall(A)
Marshall (4-8) - Cincinnati(A), Iona(H), Belmont(H), Central Florida(H)
Central Florida (3-5) - Connecticut(N), Memphis(H), Marshall(H)

Southern Miss (6-2) - South Florida(H), Colorado State(A), Marshall(H), Central Florida(A), Memphis(H), Central Florida(H)

WCC (3)
Gonzaga (6-4) - Notre Dame(H), Oral Roberts(H), Arizona(H), Xavier(A), St. Mary's(H), BYU(H)
St. Mary's (4-3) - Weber State(H), BYU(H), Gonzaga(H), BYU(A)

BYU (4-5) - Oregon(H), Nevada(N), Weber State(H), Gonzaga(H)

Missouri Valley (2)
Creighton (23-5, 4-2) - San Diego State(A), Northwestern(H), Wichita State(A), Long Beach State(H)

Wichita State (24-4, 3-3) - UNLV(H), Creighton(A), Davidson(A)

Mountain West (4)
UNLV (7-4)North Carolina(N), Nevada(H), Illinois(A), California(H), New Mexico(H), Colorado State(H), San Diego State(H)
San Diego State (6-5)Long Beach State(H), Arizona(A), California(H), UNLV(H), New Mexico(A), Colorado State(H)

New Mexico (4-3) - St. Louis(H), Colorado State(H), San Diego State(A), UNLV(H)
Colorado State (2-5) - San Diego State(H), New Mexico(H)

One-Bid Leagues (19)
Harvard (3-1) - Florida State(N), Central Florida(N), St. Joseph's(H)

Murray State (4-0) - Dayton(H), Memphis(A), Southern Miss(H), St. Mary's(H)
Iona (3-2) - Long Island(H), St. Joseph's(A), Nevada(H)
Middle Tennesee (2-2) - Akron(H), Belmont(H)
Long Beach State (1-6) - Xavier(N)
Oral Roberts (2-2) - Xavier(A), Akron(H)
Belmont (2-4) - Middle Tennessee(A), Marshall(H)
Akron (2-5) - Mississippi State(A), Marshall(A)
Nevada (1-3) - Washington(H)
Weber State (1-3) - Texas-Arlington(H)
Davidson (1-3) - Kansas(A)
Bucknell (0-2)
Valparaiso (1-2) - Akron(H)
Long Island (0-2)
Texas-Arlington (0-3)
UNC-Asheville (0-3)
Mississippi Valley State (0-6)
Savannah State (0-3)
Stony Brook (0-2)

Monday, February 27, 2012

NCAA Field of 68 - February 27, 2012 Edition

  • Kentucky overall #1, followed by Syracuse, Michigan State and Duke
  • Last 4 In - Mississippi State, Texas, BYU and Washington
  • Next 6 - Colorado State, VCU, Miami, FL, Arizona, South Florida, Illinois
  • One First Four game moved to 11 line to accomodate travel, Dayton and Cincinnati moved to 12 line, but ahead of these teams in my S-curve
  • Current 1-8 seeds are tournament locks, the 9 seeds are locks barring absolute disaster.  The 14 teams on the 10-12 lines are all squarely on the bubble and have work left to do.
  • There are 5 Atlantic 10 teams in my bracket today, but I fully expect at least one of them to play their way out.  As of right now though, these teams have more wins and better wins than teams like Colorado State and VCU.
  • Washington should now win the PAC-12 regular season title, coupled with their head-to-head sweep, puts them ahead of Arizona on my selection board.
  • Miami got a huge win against Florida State, but with still only 3 top 100 wins, the profile is lacking.  South Florida also had a nice win, but also lacks in overall body of work.
West Regional
Greensboro
(1)  Duke vs (16) Texas-Arlington
(8)  Alabama vs (9) St. Mary's
Nashville
(5)  Temple vs (12) Washington/Texas
(4)  Indiana vs (13)  Iona
Albuquerque
(6)  Creighton vs (11) Seton Hall
(3)  Baylor vs (14)  Belmont
Louisville
(7)  Purdue vs (10)  Xavier
(2)  Marquette vs (15)  Akron


South Regional
Louisville
(1)  Kentucky vs (16)  Mississippi Valley State/UNC-Asheville
(8)  New Mexico vs (9)  Memphis
Portland
(5)  Louisville vs (12) Dayton
(4)  Wisconsin vs (13)  Nevada
Columbus
(6)  Murray State vs (11)  Harvard
(3)  Michigan vs (14)  Davidson
Greensboro
(7)  Kansas State vs (10) West Virginia
(2)  North Carolina vs (15) Bucknell

Midwest Regional
Columbus
(1)  Michigan State vs (16)  Stony Brook/Savannah State
(8)  Iowa State vs (9)  Connecticut
Albuquerque
(5)  Vanderbilt vs (12)  Cincinnati
(4)  Wichita State vs (13)  Middle Tennessee
Nashville
(6)  Florida State vs (11)  St. Joseph's
(3)  Georgetown vs (14)  Oral Roberts
Omaha
(7)  San Diego State  vs (10)  Northwestern
(2)  Kansas vs (15)  Valparaiso

East Regional
Pittsburgh
(1)  Syracuse vs (16)  Long Island
(8)  Virginia vs (9)  Southern Miss
Portland
(5)  UNLV vs (12)  California
(4)  Florida vs (13)  Long Beach State
Pittsburgh
(6)  Notre Dame vs (11)  Mississippi State/BYU
(3)  Ohio State vs (14)  Drexel
Omaha
(7)  Gonzaga vs (10)  St. Louis
(2)  Missouri vs (15)  Weber State

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

NCAA Field of 68 - February 22, 2012 Edition

  • Kentucky overall #1, followed by Syracuse, Duke and Michigan State
  • Last 4 In - Northwestern, Colorado State, Washington, UCF
  • Next 6 - Cincinnati, Dayton, Arizona, Miami, FL, South Florida, LSU
  • One First Four game moved to 11 line to accomodate travel, BYU, Texas and St. Joseph's moved to 12 line, but ahead of these teams in my S-curve
West Regional
Greensboro
(1)  Duke vs (16) Stony Brook/Mississippi Valley State
(8)  Southern Miss vs (9) Iowa State
Nashville
(5)  Wisconsin vs (12) Washington/Colorado State
(4)  Louisville vs (13)  Iona
Louisville
(6)  New Mexico vs (11) Xavier
(3)  Michigan vs (14)  Drexel
Omaha
(7)  Gonzaga vs (10)  Connecticut
(2)  Missouri vs (15)  Weber State


South Regional
Louisville
(1)  Kentucky vs (16)  Savannah State/UNC-Asheville
(8)  Seton Hall vs (9)  St. Louis
Portland
(5)  UNLV vs (12) Texas
(4)  Indiana vs (13)  Long Beach State
Nashville
(6)  Murray State vs (11)  Mississippi State
(3)  Georgetown vs (14)  Belmont
Greensboro
(7)  Kansas State vs (10) Purdue
(2)  North Carolina vs (15) Akron

Midwest Regional
Columbus
(1)  Michigan State vs (16)  Texas-Arlington
(8)  San Diego State vs (9)  West Virginia
Albequerque
(5)  Florida State vs (12)  St. Joseph's
(4)  Wichita State vs (13)  Nevada
Columbus
(6)  Vanderbilt vs (11)  Northwestern/UCF
(3)  Marquette vs (14)  Davidson
Omaha
(7)  Virginia  vs (10)  California
(2)  Kansas vs (15)  Valparaiso

East Regional
Pittsburgh
(1)  Syracuse vs (16)  Long Island
(8)  St. Mary's vs (9)  Memphis
Portland
(5)  Temple vs (12)  BYU
(4)  Florida vs (13)  Middle Tennessee
Albequerque
(6)  Notre Dame vs (11)  Alabama
(3)  Baylor vs (14)  Oral Roberts
Pittsburgh
(7)  Creighton vs (10)  Harvard
(2)  Ohio State vs (15)  Bucknell

Monday, February 20, 2012

NCAA Field of 68 - February 20, 2012 Edition

  • Kentucky overall #1, followed by Syracuse, Missouri and Duke
  • Last 4 In - Miami, FL, St. Joseph's, Arizona, Colorado State
  • Next 6 - Cincinnati, Illinois, LSU, Washington, Minnesota, NC State
  • One First Four game moved to 11 line to accomodate travel, BYU and Xavier moved to 12 line, but ahead of these teams in my S-curve
  • I really don't love this bracket, but three weeks will fix that...balancing the first four seed lines between strength, geography and conference affiliations was not easy
  • The mid-majors had a rough week and their seeding is taking a hit (unless they are named Wichita State)
  • The mock selection exercise, while just a trial and not with actual committee members revealed a few things, namely nobody respects Southern Miss and their RPI of 11
West Regional
Greensboro
(1)  Duke vs (16) Norfolk State/Mississippi Valley State
(8)  Mississippi State vs (9) St. Louis
Nashville
(5)  Wisconsin vs (12) Arizona/Colorado State
(4)  Louisville vs (13)  Iona
Louisville
(6)  Gonzaga vs (11) Seton Hall
(3)  Michigan vs (14)  Drexel
Omaha
(7)  San Diego State vs (10)  Alabama
(2)  Kansas vs (15)  Weber State


South Regional
Louisville
(1)  Kentucky vs (16)  Vermont/UNC-Asheville
(8)  Kansas State vs (9)  Memphis
Portland
(5)  Notre Dame vs (12) Xavier
(4)  Indiana vs (13)  Long Beach State
Nashville
(6)  New Mexico vs (11)  Texas
(3)  Georgetown vs (14)  Belmont
Greensboro
(7)  Creighton vs (10) Harvard
(2)  North Carolina vs (15) Akron

Midwest Regional
Omaha
(1)  Missouri vs (16)  Texas-Arlington
(8)  West Virginia vs (9)  Purdue
Albequerque
(5)  Florida State vs (12)  BYU
(4)  Wichita State vs (13)  Nevada
Columbus
(6)  Vanderbilt vs (11)  Miami, FL/St. Joseph's
(3)  Marquette vs (14)  Davidson
Columbus
(7)  Murray State  vs (10)  Iowa State
(2)  Michigan State vs (15)  Valparaiso

East Regional
Pittsburgh
(1)  Syracuse vs (16)  Long Island
(8)  St. Mary's vs (9)  Southern Miss
Portland
(5)  Temple vs (12)  Northwestern
(4)  Florida vs (13)  Middle Tennessee
Albequerque
(6)  UNLV vs (11)  California
(3)  Baylor vs (14)  Oral Roberts
Pittsburgh
(7)  Virginia vs (10)  Connecticut
(2)  Ohio State vs (15)  Bucknell

Friday, February 17, 2012

NCAA Field of 68 - February 17, 2012 Edition

  • Kentucky overall #1, followed by Syracuse, Missouri and Duke
  • Last 4 In - Xavier, Texas, Arizona, NC State
  • Next 6 - St. Joseph's, Dayton, Northwestern, Cincinnati, Mississippi, LSU
West Regional
(1)  Duke vs (16) Texas-Arlington
(8)  Mississippi State vs (9) Seton Hall
(5)  Wichita State vs (12) Illinois
(4)  UNLV vs (13)  Xavier/Texas
(6)  Notre Dame vs (11) California
(3)  Michigan vs (14)  Drexel
(7)  St. Mary's vs (10)  Alabama
(2)  Kansas vs (15)  Weber State


South Regional
(1)  Kentucky vs (16)  Stony Brook/UNC-Asheville
(8)  Virginia vs (9)  Purdue
(5)  Temple vs (12)  Kansas State
(4)  Louisville vs (13)  Oral Roberts
(6)  Southern Miss vs (11)  Miami, FL
(3)  Georgetown vs (14)  Belmont
(7)  Murray State vs (10) Harvard
(2)  Ohio State vs (15) Valparaiso

Midwest Regional
(1)  Missouri vs (16)  Norfolk State/Miss Valley State
(8)  Memphis vs (9)  Connecticut
(5)  Florida State vs (12)  Iona
(4)  Indiana vs (13)  Long Beach State
(6)  Vanderbilt vs (11)  Iowa State
(3)  Marquette vs (14)  Davidson
(7)  New Mexico  vs (10)  BYU
(2)  Michigan State vs (15)  Akron


East Regional
(1)  Syracuse vs (16)  Long Island
(8)  San Diego State vs (9)  St. Louis
(5)  Wisconsin vs (12)  Middle Tennessee
(4)  Florida vs (13)  NC State/Arizona
(6)  Gonzaga vs (11)  Minnesota
(3)  Baylor vs (14)  Nevada
(7)  Creighton vs (10)  West Virginia
(2)  North Carolina vs (15)  Bucknell

Thursday, February 16, 2012

NCAA Field of 68 - February 16, 2012 Edition

  • Kentucky overall #1, followed by Syracuse, Missouri and Duke
  • Last 4 In - Xavier, Texas, Arizona, NC State
  • Next 6 - St. Joseph's, Dayton, Northwestern, Cincinnati, Mississippi, LSU
West Regional
(1)  Duke vs (16) Texas-Arlington
(8)  Mississippi State vs (9) Seton Hall
(5)  Wichita State vs (12) Illinois
(4)  UNLV vs (13)  Xavier/Texas
(6)  Notre Dame vs (11) California
(3)  Michigan vs (14)  Drexel
(7)  St. Mary's vs (10)  Alabama
(2)  Kansas vs (15)  Weber State


South Regional
(1)  Kentucky vs (16)  Stony Brook/UNC-Asheville
(8)  San Diego State vs (9)  Purdue
(5)  Florida State vs (12)  Kansas State
(4)  Louisville vs (13)  Oral Roberts
(6)  Southern Miss vs (11)  Miami, FL
(3)  Georgetown vs (14)  Belmont
(7)  Murray State vs (10) Harvard
(2)  Michigan State vs (15) Valparaiso

Midwest Regional
(1)  Missouri vs (16)  Norfolk State/Miss Valley State
(8)  Virginia vs (9)  Connecticut
(5)  Temple vs (12)  Iona
(4)  Wisconsin vs (13)  Long Beach State
(6)  Vanderbilt vs (11)  Iowa State
(3)  Marquette vs (14)  Davidson
(7)  New Mexico  vs (10)  BYU
(2)  Ohio State vs (15)  Akron


East Regional
(1)  Syracuse vs (16)  Long Island
(8)  Memphis vs (9)  St. Louis
(5)  Florida vs (12)  Middle Tennessee
(4)  Indiana vs (13)  NC State/Arizona
(6)  Gonzaga vs (11)  Minnesota
(3)  Baylor vs (14)  Nevada
(7)  Creighton vs (10)  West Virginia
(2)  North Carolina vs (15)  Bucknell

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

NCAA Field of 68 - Bubble Breakdown (I will continue adding teams)

Selection Sunday is 25 days away.  Between now and then, a few things are going to happen.  First, a random team is going to struggle mightily down the stretch.  Second, a random team is going to get hot and streak their way into the tournament.  Third, conference tournaments are going to help some resumes and hurt others.  Finally, there is the possibility of bid stealers who shrink the bubble even further.

In this edition of the Bubble Breakdown, I am going to assume teams will play at relatively the same level they have recently.  It seems futile to pick the teams that are going to fulfill the top 2 scenarios above, or even which conference might hit on the last note above.  With that, here are the teams that are a lock to make the tournament, teams almost in lock mode and then a little breakdown of the "bubble", including which teams I think are in real trouble.

LOCKS(26):  North Carolina(ACC), Duke(ACC), Florida State(ACC), Syracuse(Big East), Georgetown(Big East), Marquette(Big East), Louisville(Big East), Missouri(Big12), Baylor(Big12), Kansas(Big12), Ohio State(Big10), Michigan State(Big10), Michigan(Big10), Wisconsin(Big10), Indiana(Big10), Kentucky(SEC), Florida(SEC), Wichita State(MVC), Creighton(MVC), UNLV(MWC), San Diego State(MWC), St. Mary's(WCC), Gonzaga(WCC), Temple(A-10), Southern Miss(C-USA), Murray State(OVC)

SHOULD BE DANCING(13):  Virginia(ACC), West Virginia(Big East), Connecticut(Big East), Notre Dame(Big East), Seton Hall(BigEast), Vanderbilt(SEC), Mississippi State(SEC), Alabama(SEC), New Mexico(MWC), BYU(WCC), Memphis(C-USA), St. Louis(A-10), Harvard(Ivy)

LIKELY ONE-BID LEAGUES(18):  Valparaiso(Horizon), Iona(Metro Atlantic), Middle Tennessee(Sun Belt), Long Beach State(Big West), Oral Roberts(Summit), Drexel(Colonial), Nevada(WAC), Akron(Mid-American), Belmont(Atlantic Sun), Bucknell(Patriot), Davidson(Southern), Weber State(BigSky), Long Island(Northeast), UNC-Asheville(Big South), TX-Arlington(Southland), Norfolk State(MEAC), Stony Brook(A-East), Mississippi Valley State(SWAC)

BUBBLE(11 available spots, 1 will be absorbed by the PAC-12 Tourney Champion):

Illinois(Big10), 16-9, 5-7
RPI 49
3 (RPI Top25 W), 4 (RPI Top50 W), 7 (RPI Top100 W), 2 (+/- vs RPI Top200)
Best Win vs Michigan State (RPI 4)
Remaining Games:  Purdue(55), @Nebraska(126), @Ohio State(9), Iowa(131), Michigan(14), @Wisconsin(25)
Summary:  The Illini hit a crucial 2-game stretch starting tonight.  A sweep of these games does two things.  First, it ends a stretch of 6 losses in 7 games with back-to-back wins.  Second, it gives them a little more room for error down the stretch.  The 3 Top 25 wins are something no other bubble team has right now, but a 7-11 conference record would be an eyesore.

Kansas State(Big12) 17-8 (overall), 6-7 (conf)
RPI 63
1,4,4,3
Best Win vs Missouri (RPI 7)
Remaining Games: @Baylor(6), @Missouri(7), Iowa State(37), @Texas A&M(148), Oklahoma State(108)
Summary:  The Wildcats appeared to be safe, but 4 losses in 6 games have moved them into bubble territory.  That could easily turn into 6 losses in 8 games within the week, making the Iowa State game a huge tussle between bubblicious squads.  The RPI is getting dangerously low, and the 4 Top 100 wins are nothing special.

Iowa State(Big12), 18-8, 8-5
RPI 37
1,2,3,4
Best Win vs Kansas (RPI 5)
Remaining Games: Oklahoma(109), Texas Tech(236), @Kansas State(63), @Missouri(7), Baylor(6)
Summary:  A home sweep this week will ensure 10 wins and a likely 4th place finish in the Big 12 for the Cyclones.  The RPI is solid, but the 2 Top 50 and 3 Top 100 wins are not.  All of their quality wins are in conference and at home, with Iowa(131) being the best non-conference win and Oklahoma(109) being the best road win.

Xavier(A-10), 16-9, 7-4
RPI 56
0,2,7,2
Best Win at Vanderbilt (RPI 29)
Remaining Games: Dayton(74), @Massachusetts(71), Richmond(140), @St. Louis(23), Charlotte(135)
Summary:  A home sweep is almost a necessity for the Musketeers at this stage, which would add an 8th top 100 win.  A win over St. Louis would be even better.  I think 20-21 wins is the mark for Xavier, as long as the RPI remains in the Top 60.

Minnesota(Big10), 17-9, 5-8
RPI 64
1,3,5,3
Best Win at Indiana (RPI 15)
Remaining Games:  @Northwestern(43), Michigan State(4), Indiana(15), @Wisconsin(25), Nebraska(126)
Summary:  Minnesota is now losers of 4 of their past 6 and the next four are all against top 50 RPI teams.  The Gophers would appear to control their own destiny, needing 3 wins in the final 5 games to get to 8-10 in the Big 10.  That would also give them 5 top 50 and 7 top 100 wins, both very solid.  They could also play themselves right out of the discussion as well.

California(PAC12), 20-6, 10-3
RPI 36
0,0,6,7
Best Win at Washington (RPI 59)
Remaining Games: Oregon(68), Oregon State(145), @Utah(274), @Colorado(75), @Stanford(104)
Summary:  The Golden Bears are an odd case, but not dis-similar to Clemson/UAB a year ago.  Cal is probably safe if they avoid a stumbling finish, but their lack of quality wins has to hurt their seed at this point.  The only other quirk might be if they end up 2nd in the regular season and therefore would not be regular season or post-season champs in the PAC 12. 

Purdue(Big10), 16-9, 6-6
RPI 55
1,5,7,1
Best Win vs Temple (RPI 18)
Remaining Games: @Illinois(49), Michigan State(4), Nebraska(126), @Michigan(14), Penn State(133), @Indiana(15)
Summary:  How big is tonight's game in Champaign?  For Purdue, it would mean a home sweep of Nebraska and Penn State would get them to 9-9 and they would be assured of a positive 200 +/-.  A loss brings that negative +/- into play, unless of course they beat Michigan State at home, which would give them another really good win and make them almost a lock.  So I guess I am saying they need to split their next two, or split the Michigan/Indiana road games.

Miami, FL(ACC), 15-8, 6-4
RPI 33
1,1,3,3
Best Win at Duke (RPI 2)
Remaining Games: North Carolina(8), Wake Forest(146), @Maryland(92), Florida State(27), @NC State(50), Boston College(220)
Summary:  This is a resume almost exactly like Iowa State, except that Miami will have the Reggie Johnson injury as a potential help in the committee's eyes.  The Hurricanes have two great home opportunities for resume-enhancing wins, as well as a big road game vs fellow bubble team NC State.  They need to keep taking care of business and a 4-2 finish would be a big step in the right direction.

Northwestern(Big10), 15-9, 5-7
RPI 43
1,3,4,2
Best Win vs Michigan State (RPI 4)
Remaining Games: @Indiana(15), Minnesota(64), Michigan(14), @Penn State(133), Ohio State(9), @Iowa(131)
Summary:  The fourth Big 10 team on the bubble, Northwestern has a very similar resume to Minnesota, meaning Saturday's game in Evanston has added importance.  The Wildcats will determine their own fate, but a 2-4 finish with wins against only Penn State and Iowa are not going to improve this resume.

Washington(PAC12), 17-8, 10-3
RPI 59
0,0,2,2
Best win at Arizona (RPI 67)
Remaining Games: Arizona State(228), Arizona(67), @Washington State(153), @USC(232), @UCLA(122)
Summary: After splitting the Oregon road swing last week, the Huskies RPI actually went from 71 to 59.  That is the good news.  The bad news was they relinquished their sole possession of first in the PAC-12 and the rest of the resume lacks wins of significance.  Saturday's game with Arizona looms large, but probably more for Arizona.  This is just not an at-large profile, conference champion or not.

Arizona(PAC12), 18-8, 9-4
RPI 67
0,1,5,3
Best Win at California (RPI 47)
Remaining Games: @Washington State(153), @Washington(59), USC(232), UCLA(122), @Arizona State(228)
Summary:  Winners of 5 of their last 6, the Wildcats currently occupy the last spot in my field.  They have no margin for error though, and a loss at Washington on Saturday would squander their last resume building opportunity before the PAC-12 tournament. 

Colorado(PAC12), 15-8, 9-4, Oregon(PAC12), 18-7, 9-4
RPI 75, 68
Summary:  The at-large chances of these two are slim, but I include them as the last 2 of the 5 teams likely to win the PAC-12 tournament.

Arkansas(SEC), 17-8, 5-5
RPI 69
1,3,4,4
Best Win vs Michigan (RPI 14)
Remaining Games: @Tennessee(111), Florida(20), Alabama(35), @Auburn(134), Mississippi(52), @Mississippi State(48)
Summary:  I am guessing Razorback fans wish Tennessee wouldn't be playing their best basketball, because the Hogs need a road win.  Probably two, or at least one plus a neutral win in the SEC Tourney.  They also need to add more good wins, which are available at home.

Texas(Big12), 17-9, 7-6
RPI 42
1,2,3,3
Best Win vs Temple (RPI 18)
Remaining Games:  @Oklahoma State(108), Baylor(6), @Texas Tech(236), Oklahoma(109), @Kansas(5)
Summary:  A 4-game winning streak has Texas on the right side of the bubble, but they have the Iowas State/Miami profile that is a little short on Top 100 wins.  Monday's home tilt with Baylor is HUGE, as is the match-ups in the Big 12 tourney, as Texas could use Iowa State or Kansas State as a victim before a chance at the heavyweights.

Cincinnati(Big East), 17-8, 7-5
RPI 93
2,3,6,4
Best Win at Georgetown (RPI 13)
Remaining Games: Providence(157), Seton Hall(31), Louisville(24), @South Florida(60), Marquette(11), @Villanova(96)
Summary:  What do you do with an RPI of 93 and a loss to Presbyterian?  Wins over Georgetown, Connecticut and Notre Dame and a 6-4 road record all look very good.  But that RPI!!  The schedule is ahead of them to improve it, with 5 out of 6 remaining games vs the Top 100.  The mystery is how low the final RPI can be.  Colorado would be my example last year with 5 top 25 wins, but the Buffs RPI was just too low in the end.

North Carolina State(ACC), 18-7, 7-3
RPI 50
0,2,5,5
Best Win at Miami, FL (RPI 33)
Remaining Games: @Duke(2), Florida State(27), North Carolina(8), @Clemson(155), Miami, FL(33), @Virginia Tech(103)
Summary:  Three home games against top 33 teams, 3 chances to prove they should be in the field.  With similar resumes and a head-to-head win on a neutral court, NC State should probably be ahead of Texas right now.  It is exercises like this that remind us of those things.  That said, a three-game losing streak is very possible and would make all remaining games almost must-wins for the Wolfpack.

St. Joseph's(A10), 16-10, 6-5
RPI 47
0,1,7,2
Best win vs Creighton (RPI 30)
Remaining Games:  @Rhode Island(254), @George Washington(169), Richmond(140), Temple(18), @St. Bonaventure(91)
Summary:  A decent RPI and a now-only-decent win vs Creighton have St. Joe's squarely on the bubble.  A 3-7 road record gives little faith that they can run the road table against some of the weaker Atlantic 10 teams, but the next three games are critical.  A home win vs Temple would be even bigger going into the A-10 Tourney where more top 100 wins may be available.  As stated and true a year ago, I think the committee wants some mid-majors in the play-in games, and the Atlantic 10 is going to have a candidate or two perfect for that scenario.

Dayton(A10), 15-9, 5-5
RPI 74
2,3,7,3
Best Win at Temple (RPI 18)
Remaining Games:  Charlotte(135), @Xavier(56), @Duquesne(85), Massachusetts(71), @Richmond(140), George Washington(169)
Summary:  The Flyers ran out of gas finally after losing John Benson, but still have 7 Top 100 wins, including Temple, Alabama, St. Louis and Xavier.  The re-match with Xavier is big, but Dayton needs a big finish to improve their RPI and road record for the committee.

LSU(SEC), 15-10, 5-6
RPI 66
1,3,5,0
Best Win vs Marquette (RPI 11)
Remaining Games:  @South Carolina(177), Georgia(100), @Mississippi(52), Tennessee(111), @Auburn(134)
Summary:  LSU is still breathing for a few reasons.  They have a top 25 win, they have won 3 of  their last 4, with all wins coming against the Top 70 and the remaining schedule makes 19-11, 9-7 look like a realistic possibility.  The downside is that the remaining schedule is going to make a big leap in RPI almost impossible.

Mississippi(SEC), 15-9, 5-5
RPI 52
0,2,5,4
Best Win vs Miami, FL (RPI 33)
Remaining Games:  Vanderbilt(29), @Kentucky(3), @Tennessee(111), LSU(66), @Arkansas(69), Alabama(35)
Summary:  For disclosure purposes, two of the Top 100 victories are against number 99 and 100, which could go away if TCU and/or Georgia goes backward the rest of the way.  The good news is that 5 of the final 6 are against the RPI Top 70, so Mississippi, unlike LSU, has a chance to improve their RPI with a couple big wins, or at least gain separation from fellow bubble teams Arkansas and LSU with head-to-head victories.

Central Florida(C-USA), 16-7, 7-4
RPI 57
2,2,3,1
Best Win vs Memphis (RPI 19)
Remaining Games:  East Carolina(179), @Rice(165), UTEP(173), @Memphis(19), UAB(119)
Summary:  Honestly, anything less than a 5-0 finish may not get it done.  With wins over Memphis and Connecticut, UCF has part of the resume, but the 3 top 100 wins are usually not at-large worthy and another win over Memphis is the only way to change that before the C-USA tourney. 

Others
Pittsburgh (15-11, 4-9, 77, 1,2,5,-1) - A 4-1 finish plus 2 more in the Big East Tourney might get them in depending on everyone else.
Northern Iowa (16-10, 7-8, 53, 0,3,4,4) - Probably have to win out to the MVC final to be considered.  A mid-major with 11 or 12 losses is a tough sell without a few more quality wins.
Wyoming (16-6, 4-4, 65, 1,2,3,0) - The home win vs UNLV is nice, but they could use some more quality wins.  They have the chances, albeit all on the road.
Colorado State (14-8, 4-4, 28, 1,1,5,2) - San Diego State is the good win here, and four more opportunites exist for good wins, 3 of which are at home (keep in mind 3 of the Top 100 wins are against current 94, 97 and 99)
South Florida (14-10, 8-4, 60, 0,1,4,2)- The final 6 games for the Bulls are against the RPI Top 100, 3 vs the Top 50.  The conference record is not a problem, they just need to add top 50 and 100 wins. 
Marshall (14-10, 6-5, 62, 0,0,4,-1) - Both Memphis and Southern Miss still come to Marshall, so a sweep of those two would put Marshall back on the at-large map.
Massachusetts (18-7, 7-4, 71, 1,2,4,4) - UMass has 4 of the final 5 against RPI top 100 teams, so they could still be a player, especially head-to-head with Xavier and Dayton.
Team Currently Listed from a one-bid league - I just don't see an overall resume that would seem safe.