Wednesday, October 30, 2013

College Football Week 10 - Jabesblog Picks

Season Record: 185-149-4 (ATS) 257-81 (Straight-Up)
Last Week: 25-26-2 (ATS)  40-13 (Straight-Up)

I apologize for my Week 9 performance.  A lot of close losses, but that is no excuse.  Just for that my Week 10 Picks will all be free.

WEEK 10 PICKS
Cincinnati (-2)  27, Memphis 21  (W)
I am shedding the Bearcats road struggles and going with the better team.
Trend:  Cincinnati is 0-3 ATS on the road this season
*Houston (-17.5) 44, South Florida 10  (L)
Houston is +20 in turnover margin this season, which gives USF little chance on the road
Trends:  Houston is 7-0 ATS this season and 10-2 ATS the last 3 seasons in games played on turf.
Rice (+4.5) 24, North Texas 20  (L)
Another toss-up game in my mind, but I think Rice is starting to roll
Trend:  North Texas is 2-6 ATS the last 3 years against a team with a winning record
ULM (+3) 34, Troy 31  (W)
Trends:  ULM is 7-0 ATS since 1993 as a road underdog of 3 points or less.  Troy is 4-10 ATS the last 3 seasons as a favorite.
Arizona State 38, Washington State (+11.5) 34  (L)
Trends:  Arizona State is 1-5 ATS the last 3 seasons in games played on turf.  WSU is 7-2 since 1993 as a home underdog of 10.5 to 14 points.
Oregon State (-3) 24, USC 17  (L)
Trends:  USC is 1-5 ATS the last 3 seasons in games played on turf.  The Beavers are 6-2 ATS the past 3 years after a conference loss.
Clemson (-18) 41, Virginia 20  (W)
I still believe in Clemson, even in another road spot
Trends:  Clemson is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. 
*Virginia Tech (-4) 24, Boston College 10  (L)
I will take the shift in points the Duke loss had on this game
Trends:  The Hokies are 3-7 ATS the past 3 years as a road favorite
Toledo 45, Eastern Michigan (+30.5) 21  (L)
Last year Toledo won by 5, 2 years ago it was by 38, but the Rockets offense was more explosive in 2011
Trend:  Eastern Michigan is 3-3 ATS as a road underdog the past 3 seasons of more than 21.5 points
*Northern Illinois (-25.5) 51, Massachusetts 17  (W)
Classic game of MAC elite vs MAC 2nd Class
Trends:  UMass is 5-0 ATS all-time as an underdog of 21.5 to 31 points.  NIU is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 road games.
Kent State (+1.5) 26, Akron 21  (L)
Trends:  Kent State is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games, Akron is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games
Rutgers 28, Temple (+12.5) 20  (W)
Who would think Temple has the more stable quarterback situation?
Trends:  Temple is 5-1 ATS as an underdog in 2013.  Rutgers is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 overall.
Penn State (-11) 38, Illinois 20  (L)
Illinois is being outscored 39-19 in the road, Penn State is outscoring opponents 38-20 at home
Trends:  Illinois is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 against teams with winning records.  Penn State is 4-1 ATS the last 3 seasons after a conference loss
*Georgia Tech (-10.5) 42, Pittsburgh 28  (W)
Trends:  The Yellow Jackets are 8-2-1 ATS in conference games
Syracuse (-4.5) 34, Wake Forest 21  (W)
After some thought, I am guessing Wake Forest will be out of gas after the Miami, FL heartbreak
Trends:  Syracuse is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 at home.
Western Kentucky 38, Georgia State (+18.5) 22  (W)
Trend:  The Hilltoppers are 0-4 since 1993 when favored by between 10.5 and 21 points
Missouri (-10) 41, Tennessee 17  (W)
Trends:  Missouri is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 after a conference loss.  The Vols are 3-8 ATS the last 3 season on the road.
*Kansas State (-17) 48, Iowa State 21  (W)
Trends:  Kansas State is 5-2 ATS the past 3 seasons when favored by between 10.5 and 21.  Conversely, Iowas State is 2-5 ATS as an underdog between those same numbers.
Marshall (-31.5) 55, Southern Miss 14  (W)
Trends:  Southern Miss is 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games on turf
Texas A&M 59, UTEP (+47.5) 14  (L)
I really want to give the points, but the UTEP QB change provides an additional unknown.  Crazy if you bet this one.
Trends:  UTEP is 0-5 ATS against SEC opponents, Texas A&M is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against C-USA
*Middle Tennessee (-3.5) 38, UAB 27  (L)
Trends:  MTSU is 5-0 as a road favorite the past 3 seasons.
UTSA (+3.5) 30, Tulsa 27  (W)
The line is pretty fair, but I don't love Tulsa this year
Trends:  UTSA is 7-2 ATS the past 3 seasons on the road
Air Force (PK) 28, Army 21  (W)
Trends:  Army is 1-12 ATS the past 3 seasons on the road.  Air Force is 3-15 ATS the past 3 seasons at home.  Yikes!!
TCU 27, *West Virginia (+12.5) 23  (W)
Trends:  TCU is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games
*Georgia (-3) 26, Florida 21  (T)
Trends:  The Gators are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games in November and 0-7 ATS the last 3 seasons after a conference loss
*Arizona (-15.5) 45, California 24  (L)
Trends:  Cal is 1-11 ATS in their last 12 home games
Florida State 44, Miami, FL (+21) 28  (L)
I love FSU and have been with them all along, but eventually someone tests them, right?
Trends:  The underdog is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings
Michigan State 23, Michigan (+4.5) 20 (L)
Before I did my trend reserach, I felt this is the makings of a FG game
Trends:  Road team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Sparty is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games
Ohio State (-31.5) 56, Purdue 7  (W)
It is all about style points for the Buckeyes
Trends:  Purdue is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games
*Indiana (-8) 37, Minnesota 24  (L)
Trends:  Home team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.  Minnesota is 1-9 ATS since 1993 when an underdog of between 7.5 and 10 points
UCLA (-28) 45, Colorado 10  (L)
Trends:  UCLA is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games
Notre Dame 31, Navy (+14.5) 21  (W)
Trends:  Road team is 15-3 ATS in their last 18 meetings
Auburn (-7.5) 34, Arkansas 20  (W)
Trends:  Arkansas is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 against a team with a winning record
Nebraska (-5.5) 35, Northwestern 23  (L)
Trends:  Nebraska is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 at home
South Alabama (-3) 31, Arkansas State 24  (L)
I am going with recent play over trends in this one
Trends:  South Alabama is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games (but 2-1 this year)
Utah State 34, Hawaii (+24) 17  (L)
I don't expect Hawaii to win, but even good offenses haven't beat Hawaii by 24 this year.  The game is at like 9 AM Honolulu time though.
Trends: Hawaii is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall 
*San Jose State (-4) 41, UNLV 28  (W)
Trends:  San Jose State is 16-3 ATS since 1993 as a road favorite and 17-5 ATS in their last 22 on the road
UL Lafayette (-31.5) 59, New Mexico State 14  (L)
New Mexico State is being outscored 60-12 on the road, ULL is outscoring teams 59-16 at home
Trends:  NMSU is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games
Texas State (-11) 30, Idaho 13  (W)
Trends:  Idaho is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 against a team with a winning record
*NC State (+5.5) 27, North Carolina 24  (L)
Trends:  The Tar Heels are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games.  The underdog is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 meetings.
Texas 34, Kansas (+28) 14  (W)
Texas doesn't seem explosive enough to cover a spread like this
Trends:  The Jayhawks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 on field turf and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Longhorns
*Tulane (+2.5) 26, Florida Atlantic 20  (L)
Another game to buck the trends, Tulane is going to be in the C-USA championship game
Trends:  The Green Wave is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 on grass and FAU is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games overall.
*Oklahoma State (+1) 41, Texas Tech 34  (W)
Oklahoma State has won 4 in a row against Texas Tech by an average margin of 46-15.
Trends:  Oklahoma State is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games.
East Carolina (-25.5) 45, Florida International 16  (L)
Trends:  FIU is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games
Fresno State (-20.5) 51, Nevada 21  (L)
Trends:  Nevada is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games.  Nevada is being outscored 51-22 on the road this season
South Carolina 30, Mississippi State (+12) 24  (L)
All the trends say South Carolina, but besides the LSU game, the Bulldogs have been in everything and besides Arkansas, the Gamecocks have not really dominated
Trends:  Mississippi State is 3-9 ATS in the last 3 seasons as an underdog
Colorado State (+7) 33, Boise State 31  (L)
This one is all gut, but the Boise State defense is struggling and they are on their back-up quarterback
Trends:  Boise State is 11-0 SU as a road favorite the past 3 seasons.
San Diego State 35, New Mexico (+14) 31  (W)
Trends:  New Mexico is 14-2 ATS in the last 16 meetings


This week:  22-25-1
This season:  207-174-5











Thursday, October 24, 2013

College Football 2013 - Week 9 Jabesblog Picks

Season Record: 160-123-2 (ATS)  217-68 (Straight-Up)
Last Week:  28-17 (ATS)  31-14 (Straight-Up)

62% for Week 8, not sure what is good.   It was another one of those crazy weeks where my ATS was very close to my SU.  Here is what I have for Week 9.

WEEK 9 PICKS
Louisiana-Lafayette (-2.5) 34, Arkansas State 30  (W)
This game is a toss-up game to me, but I went against ULL on the road last week, so I will try them this week
Mississippi State 30, Kentucky (+10.5) 21  (W)
It is uncanny how the offensive vs defensive statistics line-up for both teams
Marshall (-8.5) 30, Middle Tennessee 17  (L)
The Marshall run defense takes away what the Blue Raiders do best
BYU 28, Boise State (+7.5) 24  (L)
Even though Boise State is on a back-up QB, it feels like these two teams are evenly matched
Georgia Tech (-10) 31, Virginia 13  (T)
Virginia supported their coach even if he doesn;t win another game this year...now that is confidence
UCF (-22.5) 45, Connecticut 14  (W)
UConn's average road defeat is 41-14 against teams worse than UCF
Ball State (-10) 38, Akron 20  (W)
Akron has done some nice things, but Ball State is way to explosive for them
Ohio (-25) 44, Miami, OH 10  (T)
Rivalry games scare me, but the Miami, OH offense is scary bad
Buffalo (-2) 31, Kent State 17  (W)
I love the Bulls this year and will even take them as a road favorite
Western Michigan (+3) 14, Massachusetts 12  (W)
The weekly MAC stinker, give me the points
Rutgers 34, Houston (+7) 33  (W)
Eventually Houston will not cover, but give me the 6-0 ATS Cougars
North Carolina 31, Boston College (+7.5) 26  (L)
I really like that extra half point, especially since UNC has disappointed the entire season
Clemson (-14) 45, Maryland 14  (L)
Your QB isn't right, you lose your starting WR to broken legs in the same game and you get an angry Clemson team...uh oh
Virginia Tech 23, Duke (+13.5) 13  (W)
Duke showed me something last week and this is a lot for a defensive team like the Hokies to cover
Pittsburgh (-6) 35, Navy 21  (L)
Navy is great at home, but my Paul Chryst bias says he has the Panthers headed in the right direction
UTSA 28, UAB (+7) 26  (L)
I think these teams are fairly evenly matched, so give me the points
SMU 34, Temple (+13) 24  (W)
The Owls have found a productive QB and the Mustangs turn the ball over too much
Northern Illinois (-30) 59, Eastern Michigan 21  (W)
You never know where the emotions of a team like Eastern Michigan will take them
Arizona (-14) 42, Colorado 19  (W)
The duo of Carey and Denker will run wild on the Buffaloes
Texas A&M 44, Vanderbilt (+17.5) 37  (L)
This A&M defense makes it impossible for me to take these double-digit spreads
Auburn 35, Florida Atlantic (+23.5) 20  (L)
Auburn should run, run, run, but their defense isn't exactly staunch
Alabama (-27.5) 41, Tennessee 10  (W)
Alabama is 7-0 ATS the last 3 years with similar lines
Oregon (-23.5) 50, UCLA 21  (W)
After last week's craziness, I feel like the top teams are going to roll this week
USC 16, Utah (+6.5) 13  (L)
Tough for me to give that many with a banged-up Trojan squad
Tulane (+2.5) 29, Tulsa 24  (W)
Sometimes you have to shed past perceptions or expectations and realize Tulane is better than Tulsa in 2013
Washington (-24.5) 45, California 16  (L)
Cal will cover one of these weeks, but I won't pick it when it does
Kansas State 31, West Virgina (+10) 27  (L)
That is a lot of points for a team winless in the Big 12...both teams are desperate
Michigan State (-10) 26, Illinois 13  (W)
A lot of momentum toward the Illini here, but the numbers say Sparty...not the strongest play of the week
Miami, FL 37, Wake Forest (+23.5) 19  (W)
My gut says this is too many points against a confident Demon Deacons team
Florida State (-31.5) 56, NC State 6  (W)
I love the talk of a trap game...FSU is beating teams at home by an average of 60-4.  Have you met Jameis yet?
Texas Tech (+6.5) 27, Oklahoma 21  (L)
Oklahoma's defense isn't the same without injured players so it is time for an upset special
Texas (+2.5) 23, TCU 17  (W)
Consecutive Big 12 'dogs, I like the Longhorns in a slugfest
Northwestern (+3.5) 24, Iowa 23  (L)
The Wildcats always have played the Hawkeyes tough and need to save their season
Nevada (-6) 45, UNLV 35  (L)
Two teams that can be run all over, but the Wolfpack are a decent home cover
San Jose State (-7.5) 43, Wyoming 27  (L)
This one looks to me like two teams headed in opposite directions
Stanford (-3.5) 30, Oregon State 20  (W)
Vegas is respecting Stanford less than the polls and pundits, but I am actually a Beaver disbeliever
Western Kentucky 35, Troy (+10.5) 31  (W)
The Hilltoppers are too turnover prone and Troy has kept it close except for one oops game
Notre Dame 30, Air Force (+20) 17  (L)
I don't believe in the Irish offense enough to give 20 points
ULM 20, Georgia State (+11.5) 17  (L)
All the trends say Georgia State and ULM is very limited offensively
South Alabama (-1.5) 27, Texas State 20  (L)
Texas State has been good at home, so this one scares me a bit
Ole Miss 48, Idaho (+41) 17  (L)
When has Ole Miss had to cover a spread this big? 
North Texas (-11.5) 34, Southern Miss 3  (W)
The North Texas defense is really good and Southern Miss is really bad
Louisiana Tech (-6) 28, FIU 17  (W)
I don't love Louisiana Tech, but in Kenneth Dixon I will trust
Missouri (-2.5) 31, South Carolina 21  (L)
Why stop picking Missouri now?
Oklahoma State 27, Iowa State (+13) 22  (L)
Baylor can do strange things to you, otherwise the Cyclones have been competitive
Baylor (-34.5) 62, Kansas 14  (W)
Baylor will do strange things to the Jayhawks
Nebraska (-10.5) 35, Minnesota 17  (L)
The Cornhuskers are starting to get it rolling
Louisville (-20) 38, South Florida 10  (W)
I would expect Teddy Bridgewater to atone for last week's disappointment
Bowling Green (-3.5) 27, Toledo 21  (L)
David Fluellen is too important a loss for the Rockets against a better team
Ohio State 37, Penn State (+14.5) 28  (L)
The Nittany Lions can expose the Buckeyes biggest weakness in pass defense
Rice 38, UTEP (+17.5) 27  (L)
Rice is the better team, but that is a lot of points in the strange C-USA world
Fresno State (-8) 42, San Diego State 26  (L)
Fresno is rolling, but struggles some on grass...still going with them
Colorado State (-3) 48, Hawaii 35  (W)
The island travel aside, Colorado State is a much better team


Record This Week:  25-26-2 (ouch!!)
Record This Season:  185-149-4

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

College Football 2013 - Week 8 Reset

Week 8 of the 2013 College Football season is complete.  Here is a conference-by-conference look that I will update throughout the season.

BIG TEN
CURRENT RECORD
PREDICTED RECORD
PROJECTED RECORD
BOWL
PROJECTION
Ohio State
3-0, 7-0
7-1, 12-1
7-1, 12-1
Rose Bowl
Wisconsin
3-1, 5-2
6-2, 9-3
7-1, 10-2
Outback Bowl
Penn State
1-1, 4-2
4-4, 8-4
4-4, 7-5
Indiana
1-2, 3-4
3-5, 6-6
4-4, 6-6
Little Caesars Bowl
Purdue
0-3, 1-6
1-7, 2-10
0-8, 1-11
Illinois
0-2, 3-3
0-8, 2-10
1-7, 4-8
Nebraska
2-0, 5-1
7-1, 11-2
7-1, 10-3
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl
Michigan
2-1, 6-1
6-2, 10-2
6-2, 10-2
Capital One Bowl
Northwestern
0-3, 4-3
6-2, 10-2
2-6, 6-6
Heart of Dallas Bowl
Michigan State
3-0, 6-1
5-3, 8-4
6-2, 9-3
Gator Bowl
Iowa
1-2, 4-3
2-6, 4-8
3-5, 6-6
Meineke Car Care Bowl
Minnesota
1-2, 5-2
1-7, 4-8
1-7, 5-7


 BIG TEN QUICK HITS: 
  • A promising season for Northwestern has been derailed by a combination of factors.  Injuries are never an excuse, but they are not helping the Wildcats.  They were probably over-hyped to begin with and are now fighting for their bowl life.  A loss this week at Iowa will make things very difficult with Nebraska, Michigan and Michigan State still on the schedule.
  • It looks like the Indiana-Minnesota game on November 2nd might be for the final Big 10 bowl slot.  The Hoosiers just need to take care of business at home, which is easier said than done for this program.
  • Michigan State was looking unstoppable on offense and then they played Purdue.  What?  Was that a bump in the road or the reason they will not win the Legends?
  • Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State are bowl-eligible.  The winner of the Nebraska/Minnesota game will become bowl-eligible this week.

    PAC 12
    CURRENT RECORD
    PREDICTED RECORD
    PROJECTED RECORD
    BOWL
    PROJECTION
    Oregon
    4-0, 7-0
    9-0, 13-0
    9-0, 13-0
    BCS National Championship
    Stanford
    4-1, 6-1
    7-2, 10-2
    7-2, 10-2
    Rose Bowl
    Washington
    1-3, 4-3
    5-4, 8-4
    5-4, 8-4
    Sun Bowl
    Oregon State
    4-0, 6-1
    5-4, 8-4
    5-4, 7-5
    New Mexico Bowl
    California
    0-4, 1-6
    2-7, 3-9
    1-8, 2-10
    Washington State
    2-3, 4-4
    1-8, 3-9
    2-7, 4-8
    Arizona State
    3-1, 5-2
    7-2, 9-4
    7-2, 9-3
    Holiday Bowl
    UCLA
    2-1, 5-1
    6-3, 8-4
    7-2, 10-3
    Alamo Bowl
    USC
    1-2, 4-3
    6-3, 9-4
    4-5, 7-6
    Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl 
    Arizona
    1-2, 4-2
    4-5, 7-5
    4-5, 7-5
    Las Vegas Bowl
    Utah
    1-3, 4-3
    2-7, 3-9
    3-6, 6-6
    Military Bowl
    Colorado
    0-3, 3-3
    0-9, 1-11
    0-9, 3-9


    PAC 12 QUICK HITS: 
    • Stanford, USC, Arizona State, Washington and Oregon.  In case you are wondering, that is the remaining schedule for the Beavers of Oregon State.  They are the opposite of Washington, who played the toughest part of the schedule first.  The game between Washington and Oregon State will likely decide a better bowl destination.
    • I thought Colorado would win a PAC-12 game, but now I don't believe that, although they do host Cal.
    • Somehow, some way, I think Utah scrapes out bowl-eligibility.  It is just what that program does.
    • Oregon, Stanford and Oregon State are bowl-eligible.  UCLA can become bowl-eligible this week.

    SEC
    CURRENT RECORD
    PREDICTED RECORD
    PROJECTED RECORD
    BOWL
    PROJECTION
    South Carolina
    3-2, 5-2
    7-1, 11-2
    5-3, 8-4
    Gator Bowl
    Georgia
    3-2, 4-3
    6-2, 9-3
    5-3, 8-4
    Chick Fil-A Bowl
    Florida
    3-2, 4-3
    5-3, 8-4
    4-4, 6-6
    Liberty Bowl
    Vanderbilt
    1-3, 4-3
    4-4, 8-4
    3-5, 7-5
    Advocare V100 Bowl
    Missouri
    3-0, 7-0
    2-6, 6-6
    7-1, 11-2
    Outback Bowl
    Tennessee
    1-2, 4-3
    2-6, 5-7
    3-5, 6-6
    BBVA Compass Bowl
    Kentucky
    0-3, 1-5
    0-8, 2-10
    0-8, 2-10
    Texas A&M
    2-2, 5-2
    8-0, 13-0
    5-3, 9-3
    Capital One Bowl
    Alabama
    4-0, 7-0
    7-1, 11-1
    7-1, 12-1
    Sugar Bowl
    Ole Miss
    2-3, 4-3
    5-3, 8-4
    4-4, 8-4
    Music City Bowl
    LSU
    3-2, 6-2
    4-4, 8-4
    6-2, 10-2
    Orange Bowl
    Auburn
    3-1, 6-1
    3-5, 7-5
    5-3, 9-3
    Cotton Bowl
    Mississippi State
    0-2, 3-3
    2-6, 5-7
    1-7, 4-8
    Arkansas
    0-4, 3-5
    1-7, 5-7
    1-7, 4-8


     SEC QUICK HITS: 
    • You would have won a lot of money if you had a parlay with South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, LSU and Texas A&M all losing on the same Saturday.  The effect on these teams is disappointing seasons that will in all likelihood end up outside of a BCS bowl.  Right now I have LSU sneaking into the Orange, but that is with the floundering chance they defeat Alabama.
    • Alabama is hoping Missouri and Auburn continue their surprising seasons so that those potential victories, along with one over LSU will cement the Tide in the BCS Title Game.  I am sure it will happen, I just won't put it in print.
    • Injuries have been a factor in the SEC this year, but Georgia's defense is young, Florida has no quarterback, A&M has no defense and Ole Miss is relying on freshman.  Some of this was to be expected, but these teams got the benefit of the doubt.
    • Missouri, Alabama, Auburn and LSU are bowl-eligible.  South Carolina and Texas A&M can become bowl-eligible this week.

    Big 12
    CURRENT RECORD
    PREDICTED RECORD
    PROJECTED RECORD
    BOWL
    PROJECTION
    Oklahoma State
    2-1, 5-1
    8-1, 11-1
    6-3, 9-3
    Cotton Bowl
    Oklahoma
    3-1, 6-1
    7-2, 10-2
    6-3, 9-3
    Alamo Bowl
    Texas
    3-0, 4-2
    7-2, 10-2
    7-2, 8-4
    Holiday Bowl
    Baylor
    3-0, 6-0
    6-3, 9-3
    8-1, 11-1
    Fiesta Bowl
    Kansas State
    0-3, 2-4
    6-3, 9-3
    4-5, 6-6
    Pinstripe Bowl
    TCU
    1-3, 3-4
    5-4, 7-5
    4-5, 6-6
    Meineke Car Care Bowl
    Texas Tech
    4-0, 7-0
    3-6, 6-6
    6-3, 9-3
    Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl
    West Virginia
    1-3, 3-4
    2-7, 5-7
    2-7, 4-8
    Iowa State
    0-3, 1-5
    1-8, 3-9
    1-8, 2-10
    Kansas
    0-3, 2-4
    0-9, 1-11
    1-8, 3-9

     Big 12 Synopsis: 
    • If Texas finishes as projected, Mack Brown should get an apology.  Things are not perfect for the Longhorns, but a win over Oklahoma can save a season.
    • I am confused by the Sooners, but we will find out about them and Texas Tech this weekend.  If the Red Raiders pull the upset, it looks like Baylor and Texas Tech to the finish in the Big 12.  Just like everybody thought.
    • Oklahoma State can still have a say, but they better figure out their road problems with games at Texas Tech and at Texas looming.  The good news is that they can take care of all the teams in front of them yet.
    • Kansas State desperately needs a win over West Virginia this week.  Bill Snyder's magic may have left with Colin Klein.
    • Baylor, Oklahoma and Texas Tech are bowl-eligible.  Oklahoma State can become bowl-eligible this week.

    ACC
    CURRENT RECORD
    PREDICTED RECORD
    PROJECTED RECORD
    BOWL
    PROJECTION
    Florida State
    4-0, 6-0
    8-0, 13-0
    8-0, 13-0
    BCS National Championship
    Clemson
    4-1, 6-1
    7-1, 10-2
    7-1, 11-1
    Sugar Bowl
    Maryland
    1-2, 5-2
    4-4, 7-5
    3-5, 7-5
    Music City Bowl
    NC State
    0-3, 3-3
    3-5, 6-6
    2-6, 5-7

    Boston College
    1-2, 3-3
    2-6, 5-7
    2-6, 5-7
    Syracuse
    1-2, 3-4
    2-6, 4-8
    3-5, 5-7
    Wake Forest
    2-2, 4-3
    1-7, 3-9
    3-5, 5-7
    Virginia Tech
    3-0, 6-1
    7-1, 10-3
    7-1, 10-2
    Russell Athletic Bowl
    Miami FL
    2-0, 6-0
    6-2, 9-3
    7-1, 11-2
    Chick-Fil-A Bowl
    Georgia Tech
    3-2, 4-3
    5-3, 8-4
    5-3, 7-5
    Belk Bowl
    North Carolina
    0-3, 1-5
    6-2, 9-3
    3-5, 5-7

    Pittsburgh
    2-2, 4-2
    3-5, 6-6
    4-4, 7-5
    Sun Bowl
    Duke
    1-2, 5-2
    1-7, 4-8
    2-6, 6-6
    Advocare V100 Bowl
    Virginia
    0-3, 2-5
    1-7, 3-9
    0-8, 2-10

     ACC Synopsis:
    • Well, at least I have been correct about Florida State.  The Seminoles look awesome, but they must still navigate Miami, FL, Florida and then potentially Miami, FL again.  And doesn't it always seem they lose a low scoring game they were expected to cruise in?
    • Clemson will still have a very successful season, just not the one they ultimately hoped for after beating Georgia.
    • Injuries have likely put a damper on what looked like a really good season for Maryland.  When your two starting receivers both break their leg in the same game, you start wondering what the Terps ever did to the football gods.
    • I have 5 ACC teams at 5-7, so the odds are pretty good that another team gets bowl-eligible.  
    • Florida State, Miami, FL, Clemson and Virginia Tech are bowl-eligible.  Maryland and Duke can become bowl-eligible this week.

    AAC
    CURRENT RECORD
    PREDICTED RECORD
    PROJECTED RECORD
    BOWL
    PROJECTION
    Louisville
    2-1, 6-1
    7-1, 11-1
    7-1, 11-1
    Russell Athletic Bowl
    Cincinnati
    2-1, 5-2
    6-2, 10-2
    5-3, 8-4
    Pinstripe Bowl
    UCF
    2-0, 5-1
    6-2, 8-4
    8-0, 11-1
    Orange Bowl
    Rutgers
    1-1, 4-2
    5-3, 7-5
    6-2, 9-3
    Belk Bowl
    Houston
    2-0, 5-1
    4-4, 6-6
    4-4, 7-5
    BBVA Compass Bowl
    South Florida
    2-0, 2-4
    3-5, 5-7
    3-5, 3-9
    Connecticut
    0-2, 0-6
    3-5, 4-8
    0-8, 0-12
    SMU
    1-1, 2-4
    3-5, 4-8
    4-4, 5-7
    Memphis
    0-3, 1-5
    2-6, 4-8
    2-6, 4-8
    Temple
    0-3, 1-6
    1-7, 4-8
    1-7, 2-10

     AAC Synopsis:
    • I pointed toward the UCF game for Louisville and the Golden Knights did not disappoint.  Do you think playing in close games against Penn State and South Carolina helped more than derailing Florida International?  We will never know, but UCF is now in the drivers seat for a BCS bowl.
    • Louisville is bowl-eligible.  UCF and Houston can become bowl-eligible this week.
    Mountain West
    CURRENT RECORD
    PREDICTED RECORD
    PROJECTED RECORD
    BOWL
    PROJECTION
    Boise State
    3-1, 5-2
    6-2, 9-4
    6-2, 8-5
    Poinsettia Bowl
    Utah State
    3-1, 4-4
    6-2, 9-3
    5-3, 6-6
    New Mexico Bowl
    Wyoming
    2-1, 4-3
    4-4, 7-5
    4-4, 6-6
    Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
    Air Force
    0-5, 1-6
    4-4, 6-6
    2-6, 4-8

    Colorado State
    1-1, 3-4
    2-6, 5-8
    5-3, 7-6
    Armed Forces Bowl
    New Mexico
    0-3, 2-5
    1-7, 3-9
    1-7, 3-9
    Fresno State
    3-0, 6-0
    7-1, 12-1
    8-0, 12-0*
    Fiesta Bowl
    San Jose State
    2-1, 3-3
    6-2, 9-3
    5-3, 7-5
    Las Vegas Bowl
    San Diego State
    2-0, 3-3
    5-3, 7-5
    5-3, 6-6
    Hawaii Bowl
    Nevada
    2-2, 3-4
    4-4, 5-7
    4-4, 5-7

    UNLV
    2-1, 4-3
    2-6, 4-8
    3-5, 5-7
    Hawaii
    0-4, 0-6
    1-7, 1-11
    0-8, 0-12
    *No make-up game has been scheduled for the Colorado-Fresno State cancellation.

     Mountain West Synopsis:
    • Fresno State still looks like the best BCS buster from the non AQ conferences.  Injuries and disappointments have taken away many of the top contenders.  Plus the Bulldogs are starting to get it rolling.
    • It is hard to trust many of these teams, but it looks like they will at least fill their bowl allotment.
    • Fresno State is bowl-eligible.  Boise State can become bowl-eligible this week.

    C-USA
    CURRENT RECORD
    PREDICTED RECORD
    PROJECTED RECORD
    BOWL
    PROJECTION
    East Carolina
    3-1, 5-2
    7-1, 10-3
    7-1, 11-2
    Liberty Bowl
    Marshall
    2-0, 4-2
    6-2, 8-4
    7-1, 9-3
    Heart of Dallas Bowl
    Middle Tennessee
    1-2, 3-4
    5-3, 7-5
    4-4, 6-6
    Military Bowl
    UAB
    1-1, 2-4
    4-4, 6-6
    4-4, 5-7
    Southern Miss
    0-2, 0-6
    3-5, 4-8
    1-7, 1-11
    FAU
    1-4, 2-5
    2-6, 3-9
    3-5, 5-7
    FIU
    1-1, 1-5
    0-8, 0-12
    1-7, 1-11
    Tulsa
    1-1, 2-4
    7-1, 9-4
    5-3, 6-6
    Hawaii Bowl
    Rice
    3-0, 5-2
    6-2, 9-3
    7-1, 9-4
    New Orleans Bowl
    Louisiana Tech
    1-2, 2-5
    5-3, 7-5
    3-5, 5-7

    North Texas
    2-1, 4-3
    4-4, 5-7
    4-4, 6-6

    Tulane
    3-0, 5-2
    3-5, 5-7
    6-2, 8-4
    Beef O'Brady's Bowl
    UTEP
    0-3, 1-5
    2-6, 4-8
    1-7, 2-10
    UTSA
    1-2, 2-5
    2-6, 3-9
    3-5, 4-8

     C-USA Synopsis:
    • I still like East Carolina, despite the loss at Tulane.  The season finale against Marshall should be for the C-USA East.  Tulane and Rice also meet in the finale, likely deciding the C-USA West.  How is that for a 4-team playoff? 
    • Rice and Tulane can become bowl-eligible this week.

    MAC
    CURRENT RECORD
    PREDICTED RECORD
    PROJECTED RECORD
    BOWL
    PROJECTION
    Ohio
    2-1, 5-2
    7-1, 10-3
    6-2, 9-3
    Beef O'Brady's Bowl
    Bowling Green
    3-0, 5-2
    6-2, 8-4
    7-1, 9-4
    Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
    Buffalo
    3-0, 5-2
    4-4, 6-6
    6-2, 8-4
    Kent State
    1-3, 2-6
    3-5, 5-7
    3-5, 4-8
    Miami OH
    0-3, 0-7
    3-5, 3-9
    0-8, 0-12
    Akron
    1-3, 2-6
    2-6, 3-9
    2-6, 3-9
    Massachusetts
    1-2, 1-6
    1-7, 2-10
    1-7, 1-11
    Northern Illinois
    3-0, 7-0
    7-1, 12-1
    8-0, 13-0
    GoDaddy.com Bowl
    Ball State
    4-0, 7-1
    6-2, 9-3
    7-1, 10-2
    Little Caesars Bowl
    Toledo
    2-1, 4-3
    6-2, 8-4
    5-3, 7-5
     
    Western Michigan
    0-4, 0-8
    4-4, 5-7
    1-7, 1-11
    Central Michigan
    2-2, 3-5
    3-5, 4-8
    5-3, 6-6
    Eastern Michigan
    0-3, 1-6
    0-8, 1-11
    1-7, 2-10

     MAC Synopsis:
    • Time to move Northern Illinois to the unbeaten season.  Now the question is whether they can beat out Fresno State for a potential BCS spot.  Ball State might also have a say on November 13th.
    • Buffalo is having a really good season, keeping in mind their two losses are against Ohio State and Baylor.  They are 71st in line for a bowl bid though, which leaves them home for the holidays.  Chances are one of the 6-6 teams gets upset, that is why they are 6-6 teams, but for now the Bulls are on the outside looking in.
    • Northern Illinois and Ball State are bowl-eligible.  Ohio, Bowling Green and Buffalo can become bowl-eligible this week.

    Sun Belt
    CURRENT RECORD
    PREDICTED RECORD
    PROJECTED RECORD
    BOWL
    PROJECTION
    Louisiana-Monroe
    1-1, 3-4
    6-1, 9-3
    2-5, 4-8

    Louisiana-Lafayette
    2-0, 4-2
    5-2, 8-4
    7-0, 10-2
    New Orleans Bowl
    Arkansas State
    1-0, 3-3
    5-2, 7-5
    5-2, 7-5

    Western Kentucky
    1-2, 4-3
    5-2, 8-4
    4-3, 8-4
    GoDaddy.com Bowl
    Troy
    2-1, 4-3
    4-3, 5-7
    4-3, 6-6

    South Alabama
    1-1, 3-3
    2-5, 3-9
    3-4, 5-7
    Texas State
    1-2, 4-3
    1-6, 3-9
    3-4, 7-5

    Georgia State
    0-0, 0-5
    0-7, 1-11
    0-7, 0-12

     Sun Belt Synopsis:
    • Louisiana-Lafayette is starting to separate themselves as the favorite as the defense has stepped forward to support a solid offense.  It looks like they will have back-to-back road wins over two of the top contenders before the night is out.
    • I am projecting five bowl-eligible teams, but not enough slots for everyone to fill.

    Independents
    CURRENT RECORD
    PREDICTED RECORD
    PROJECTED RECORD
    BOWL
    PROJECTION
    Notre Dame
    5-2
    9-3
    9-3
    Poinsettia Bowl
    Navy
    3-3
    7-5
    6-6
    Armed Forces Bowl
    BYU
    5-2
    6-6
    8-4
    Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
    Army
    3-5
    3-9
    4-8
    Idaho
    1-6
    1-11
    2-10
    New Mexico State
    0-7
    2-10
    1-11