Friday, February 8, 2013

College Basketball 2012-13 - WCC Progress Report

Gonzaga (21-2, 9-0, RPI=12, Sag=11)
Top 25 Wins:  Oklahoma, Kansas State
26-50 Wins:  Baylor, Oklahoma State, BYU
51-100 Wins:  West Virginia, Santa Clara, St. Mary's
Losses: Illinois, Butler
Road/Neutral:  11-1
Margin:  +16.0
Bottom Line:  Gonzaga legitimately belongs with the top teams from the traditional power conferences, but will still need to overcome the slight drag the West Coast Conference has on a teams seed.  If they win out, no easy task for any team, a #2 seed could be in the cards.  Otherwise, a 3-seed akin to their current RPI standing would seem more appropriate.

St. Mary's (19-4, 9-1, RPI=55, Sag=36)
Top 25 Wins: None
26-50 Wins: BYU
51-100 Wins: Harvard, Santa Clara
Losses: Pacific, Georgia Tech, Northern Iowa, Gonzaga
Road/Neutral: 7-4
Margin:  +13.5
Bottom Line:  The Gaels are almost guaranteed to be sweating out Selection Sunday if they don't win the WCC Tourney.  For right now, Valentine's Day has to be sweet to St. Mary's with a home win over Gonzaga.  It would be the signature win a resume devoid of top 100 wins might need.  Even so, other teams are going to have more opportunities to strengthen their resumes, so St. Mary's current standing as last team in is shaky.  Note:  St. Mary's had top 50 RPI's in both 2009 and 2011, but missed the dance each year with only 3 top 100 wins in each season.  Note 2:  Santa Clara currently sits at 99 in the RPI, so one of the Gaels current 3 is potentially going away.

BYU (17-7, 8-3, RPI=46, Sag=50)
Top 25 Wins:  None
26-50 Wins:  None
51-100 Wins:  Santa Clara, Santa Clara
Losses:  Florida State, Notre Dame, Iowa State, Baylor, St. Mary's, Gonzaga, San Diego
Road/Neutral:  7-6
Bottom Line:  Win the WCC tournament, especially if those Santa Clara wins disappear from the Top 100.  Even victories over St. Mary's and Gonzaga are probably going to leave this resume a little light.  Nice RPI though, but too many losses and not enough good wins.

NOTE:  Only teams with a top 75 RPI or Sagarin are listed

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