Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Collage Basketball 2012-13 - Mountain West Progress Report

New Mexico (20-4, 7-2, RPI=3, Sag=36)
Top 25 Wins:  UNLV, Colorado State
26-50 Wins:  Connecticut, Cincinnati, Boise State
51-100 Wins:  Indiana State, Valparaiso, New Mexico State, New Mexico State, Wyoming, Air Force
Losses: South Dakota State, St. Louis, San Diego State, UNLV
Road/Neutral:  8-3
Margin:  +6.3
Bottom Line:  Sagarin's whipping boy team, the Lobos are penalized in that metric for blowing nobody out this year.  While their RPI may be a little high, they have amassed a lot of nice wins and have 5 more chances against the RPI top 72 to close the regular season.  The Mountain West has been right behind the Big 10 in Conference rating all season, so if the Lobos can pair a league championship with that high RPI, a top 3 seed is likely.

UNLV (17-6, 5-4, RPI=21, Sag=37)
Top 25 Wins: New Mexico, San Diego State
26-50 Wins: Iowa State
51-100 Wins: California, UTEP, Northern Iowa, Air Force, Wyoming
Losses: Oregon, North Carolina, New Mexico, Colorado State, Boise State, Fresno State
Road/Neutral:  4-5
Margin:  +8.9
Bottom Line:  The Runnin' Rebels uncharacteristic bad loss at Fresno dropped them a notch, but this team should be fine and will be another dangerous team seeded in the middle of the bracket.

San Diego State (16-5, 6-3, RPI=25, Sag=24)
Top 25 Wins:  Colorado State, New Mexico
26-50 Wins:  UCLA, Boise State
51-100 Wins:  Indiana State
Losses:  Syracuse, Arizona, UNLV, Wyoming, Air Force
Road/Neutral:  7-4
Margin:  +9.1
Bottom Line:  The Aztecs have 5 really good wins when put together, but could use a few more to strengthen their position with the committee.  6 of the final 7 are against the RPI top 72, so opportunity awaits, including road games this week at Colorado State and at UNLV.

Colorado State (17-4, 6-2, RPI=15, Sag=26)
Top 25 Wins:  UNLV
26-50 Wins:  Boise State
51-100 Wins:  Washington, UTEP, Air Force, Wyoming
Losses:  Colorado, Illinois-Chicago, San Diego State, New Mexico
Road/Neutral: 6-4
Margin:  +11.9
Bottom Line:  The Rams have figured out the RPI, going 9-1 vs teams rated 82-168.  Add two top 50 wins and you have a nice little package.  With 6 left against the RPI top 72, the Rams can further prove their RPI is not inflated and improve their seeding. 

Boise State (14-7, 4-5, RPI=45, Sag=78)
Top 25 Wins:  UNLV
26-50 Wins:  Creighton
51-100 Wins:  Wyoming, Wyoming
Losses:  Michigan State, Utah, New Mexico, Air Force, Nevada, Colorado State, San Diego State
Road/Neutral:  6-6
Margin:  +4.3
Bottom Line:  A serious Bubble team, Boise State needs to finish strong to state their case.  Despite the Mountain West's lofty standing as a conference, a .500 conference record would seem necessary to warrant consideration.  That would require winning at least 2 of the 5 remaining against the Top 100, which would bring their total to 6 at least give them a chance going into the Mountain West Tourney.

Wyoming (14-7, 2-7, RPI=61, Sag=85) - The Cowboys need to finish 6-1, giving them a .500 record in conference and 6 Top 100 wins.  I just don't see it happening.

Air Force (12-8, 5-4, RPI=72, Sag=106) - An outside chance if they can finish 5-2 or 6-1, but again, right now they are on fringe consideration.

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