Friday, February 28, 2014

College Basketball Field of 68 - Bracket (Feb 28, 2014)

It was supposed to be a quiet night, but St. Louis,  Kentucky,  Ohio State,  UCLA,  Iowa and Memphis did not get the memo.   Louisville did, and I can no longer ignore how good they look.  Despite the resume flaws, keep in mind it is humans that ultimately determine the field, not computers.  Arkansas joins the fray, but the bubble is still fickle.

SOUTH (Memphis) THUR/SAT

(1) Florida
(16) Alabama State/High Point
ORLANDO (THUR/SAT)
(8) Stanford
(9) George Washington

(5) St. Louis
(12) Green Bay
SAN DIEGO (FRI/SUN)
(4) Louisville
(13) Belmont

(6) Ohio State
(11) Oregon/Missouri
RALEIGH (FRI/SUN)
(3) Duke
(14) Mercer

(7) New Mexico
(10) Oklahoma State
MILWAUKEE (THUR/SAT)
(2) Creighton
(15) North Carolina Central

WEST (Anaheim) THUR/SAT

(1) Arizona
(16) Utah Valley
SAN DIEGO (FRI/SUN)
(8) SMU
(9) Baylor

(5) North Carolina
(12) BYU*
SPOKANE (THUR/SAT)
(4) San Diego State
(13) Stephen F. Austin

(6) UCLA
(11) Minnesota/Arkansas
SAN ANTONIO (FRI/SUN)
(3) Iowa State
(14) Delaware

(7) VCU
(10) Gonzaga
MILWAUKEE (THUR/SAT)
(2) Wisconsin
(15) Georgia State

MIDWEST (Indy) FRI/SUN

(1) Wichita State
(16) Robert Morris/Weber State
ST. LOUIS (FRI/SUN)
(8) Kansas State
(9) Colorado

(5) Kentucky
(12) Southern Miss
ORLANDO (THUR/SAT)
(4) Virginia
(13) Harvard

(6) Massachusetts
(11) Xavier
BUFFALO (THUR/SAT)
(3) Michigan
(14) Iona

(7) Arizona State
(10) Pittsburgh
ST. LOUIS (FRI/SUN)
(2) Kansas
(15) UC-Irvine

EAST (New York City) FRI/SUN

(1) Syracuse
(16) Davidson
BUFFALO (THUR/SAT)
(8) Iowa
(9) Memphis

(5) Texas
(12) North Dakota State
SPOKANE (THUR/SAT)
(4) Cincinnati
(13) Western Michigan

(6) Oklahoma
(11) California
SAN ANTONIO (FRI/SUN)
(3) Michigan State
(14) Boston U.

(7) Connecticut
(10) St. Joseph’s
RALEIGH (FRI/SUN)
(2) Villanova
(15) Vermont


*BYU moved to a 12 seed to accommodate their Thursday/Saturday request

Thursday, February 27, 2014

College Basketball Field of 68 - Bracket (Feb 27, 2014)

A few changes and tweaks, still don't love it and have the BYU Sunday site issue.

SOUTH (Memphis) THUR/SAT

(1) Florida
(16) Alabama State/High Point
ORLANDO (THUR/SAT)
(8) VCU
(9) Baylor

(5) North Carolina
(12) North Dakota State
SPOKANE (THUR/SAT)
(4) Cincinnati
(13) New Mexico State

(6) Ohio State
(11) California
RALEIGH (FRI/SUN)
(3) Duke
(14) Boston U.

(7) Iowa
(10) Oklahoma State
MILWAUKEE (THUR/SAT)
(2) Creighton
(15) Vermont

WEST (Anaheim) THUR/SAT

(1) Arizona
(16) Davidson
SAN DIEGO (FRI/SUN)
(8) Kansas State
(9) SMU

(5) Kentucky
(12) Green Bay
SPOKANE (THUR/SAT)
(4) San Diego State
(13) Western Michigan

(6) UCLA
(11) Minnesota
SAN ANTONIO (FRI/SUN)
(3) Iowa State
(14) Stephen F. Austin

(7) New Mexico
(10) St. Joseph’s
MILWAUKEE (THUR/SAT)
(2) Wisconsin
(15) Georgia State

MIDWEST (Indy) FRI/SUN

(1) Wichita State
(16) Robert Morris/Weber State
ST. LOUIS (FRI/SUN)
(8) Memphis
(9) Colorado

(5) Texas
(12) Harvard
SAN DIEGO (FRI/SUN)
(4) Virginia
(13) Middle Tennessee

(6) Massachusetts
(11) Xavier
BUFFALO (THUR/SAT) 
(3) Michigan
(14) Iona

(7) Arizona State
(10) Gonzaga
ST. LOUIS (FRI/SUN)
(2) Kansas
(15) UCSB

EAST (New York City) FRI/SUN

(1) Syracuse
(16) North Carolina Central
BUFFALO (THUR/SAT)
(8) Stanford
(9) George Washington

(5) Louisville
(12) Oregon/Providence
SAN ANTONIO (FRI/SUN)
(4) St. Louis
(13) Belmont

(6) Oklahoma
(11) BYU/Missouri
ORLANDO (THUR/SAT)
(3) Michigan State
(14) Mercer

(7) Connecticut
(10) Pittsburgh
RALEIGH (FRI/SUN)
(2) Villanova
(15) Delaware

Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Bracket questions?

I would love to answer any and all bracket questions.  Comment, email or tweet @jabesblog3000 them to me and I will answer them all!!

College Basketball Field of 68 - Bracket (Feb 26, 2014)

All changes in the 11 and seeds today.

SOUTH (Memphis) THUR/SAT

(1)  Florida
(16)  Southern/VMI
ORLANDO (THUR/SAT)
(8)  VCU
(9)  Colorado

(5)  North Carolina
(12)  Toledo
SPOKANE (THUR/SAT)
(4)  Cincinnati
(13)  Middle Tennessee

(6)  Oklahoma
(11)  Minnesota
RALEIGH (FRI/SUN)
(3)  Duke
(14)  UCSB

(7)  Iowa
(10)  Gonzaga
MILWAUKEE (THUR/SAT)
(2)  Creighton
(15)  Vermont

WEST (Anaheim)  THUR/SAT

(1)  Arizona
(16)  Davidson
SAN DIEGO (FRI/SUN)
(8)  SMU
(9)  Baylor

(5)  Kentucky
(12)  North Dakota State
SPOKANE (THUR/SAT)
(4)  San Diego State
(13)  Belmont

(6)  Ohio State
(11)  Xavier
SAN ANTONIO (FRI/SUN)
(3)  Iowa State
(14)  Stephen F. Austin

(7)  Memphis
(10)  St. Joseph’s
MILWAUKEE (THUR/SAT)
(2)  Wisconsin
(15)  Boston U.

MIDWEST (Indy)  FRI/SUN

(1)  Wichita State
(16)  Robert Morris/Weber State
ST. LOUIS (FRI/SUN)
(8)  Kansas State
(9)  Arizona State

(5)  UCLA
(12)  Green Bay
SAN DIEGO (FRI/SUN)
 (4)  Virginia
(13)  New Mexico State

(6)  Massachusetts
(11)  Oklahoma State
BUFFALO (THUR/SAT) 
(3)  Michigan
(14)  Iona

(7)  New Mexico
(10)  California
ST. LOUIS (FRI/SUN)
(2)  Kansas
(15)  Georgia State

EAST (New York City) FRI/SUN

(1)  Syracuse
(16)  North Carolina Central
BUFFALO (THUR/SAT)
(8)  Stanford
(9)  George Washington

(5)  Louisville
(12)  Oregon/Nebraska
SAN ANTONIO (FRI/SUN)
(4)  St. Louis
(13)  Harvard

(6)  Texas
(11)  BYU/Missouri
ORLANDO (THUR/SAT)
(3)  Michigan State
(14)  Mercer

(7)  Connecticut
(10)  Pittsburgh
RALEIGH (FRI/SUN)
(2)  Villanova
(15)  Delaware

Monday, February 24, 2014

College Basketball Field of 68 - Bid Stealers Edition

It is the last week of the regular season for some conferences and all others will end the regular season less than two weeks from today.  As bubble teams try to enhance their resumes, they also have to keep an eye on the "Bid Stealers" as conference tournaments get underway next week.  Bid Stealers are teams that would likely not be an at-large selection that earn automatic bids in conferences with at least 1 at-large team.

The following 21 conferences will qualify only the conference tournament champion (barring a huge surprise). While these conferences do not possess potential bid thieves, the results of the conference tournaments will effect the quality and depth of the NCAA Tournament.  The more upsets that happen in these tournaments, the weaker the overall Field will be.

1 Bid Leagues - America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Colonial, Conference USA, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Summit, Sun Belt and WAC.

The next group of 5 conferences will likely produce a Conference Tournament Champion that is already an at-large quality team.  There have been a few exceptions over the years, but the percentage is very low to produce a Bid Stealer from these conferences.

Big 12, Big 10, PAC 12, ACC and American Athletic.

That leaves 6 conferences with Bid Stealing possibilities.  Let's take a closer look at these.

SEC - The least likely of the 6 due to the presence of Florida, but if the Gators accidentally mail it in at the Georgia Dome, the SEC becomes a wide-open tournament.  It happened last season when Ole Miss stole/secured a bid in the field by winning the SEC tournament.  With only Kentucky as a lock outside of Florida, teams like LSU, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt and Georgia could all make runs that would secure a bid that was headed elsewhere on Selection Sunday.

Atlantic 10 - I currently have the Atlantic 10 as a 6 bid league, but St. Joseph's and Dayton are far from locks.  The odds of a bid stealer are less likely than one or both of these teams solidifying the conference as a 5 or 6 bid league.  Richmond is right on the outside of the bubble as well and needs to be considered right along with St. Joe's and Dayton.  The longshots would be St. Bonaventure or LaSalle, keeping in mind the Bonnies run in 2012 to steal a bid.

Big East - Villanova and Creighton are locks, but I have wavered between the Big East being anywhere for a 3 to a 5 bid league over the past few weeks.  The mediocre nature of the league is making for an interesting finish to the regular season and could be an even more interesting Conference Tournament.  Villanova seems vulnerable, so it might just take a team knocking off Creighton.  Like the Atlantic 10, teams like Xavier, Providence, St. John's and Georgetown would more likely be solidifying a bid rather than stealing it, but without that automatic bid, all 4 teams would be sweating out Selection Sunday.  Marquette is the darkhorse that would be the true bid stealer at this point.

West Coast - Despite some recent struggles, Gonzaga is likely an at-large team in the field, although I say that with less certainty today than I did just a few days ago.  BYU was new to my Field yesterday, so they are hardly a lock.  A run through the WCC tournament by the Cougars would likely make this a two-bid league.  St. Mary's and San Francisco need to be watched as well with an outside chance of making the WCC a 3-bid league.

Mountain West - The first thing to know about the Mountain West Conference Tournament is that it is in Las Vegas.  With only San Diego State and New Mexico as locks for the NCAA Tournament, that alone makes UNLV a prime threat as a bid stealer.  Boise State and Wyoming can also not be discounted, but my eye is on the Runnin' Rebels.

Missouri Valley - With only one at-large lock in Wichita State, the Missouri Valley is the most likely to provide a bid stealer during Arch Madness.  Of course, nobody has defeated the Shockers so far this season.  All it takes is one game though and someones bid will go to an Indiana State, Missouri State or Northern Iowa.

College Basketball Field of 68 - Bracket (Feb 24, 2014)

A few tweaks from last night's seed list.

SOUTH (Memphis) THUR/SAT

(1)  Florida
(16)  Southern/VMI
ORLANDO (THUR/SAT)
(8)  VCU
(9)  Colorado

(5)  North Carolina
(12)  Toledo
SPOKANE (THUR/SAT)
(4)  Cincinnati
(13)  Middle Tennessee

(6)  Oklahoma
(11)  Dayton*/Nebraska
RALEIGH (FRI/SUN)
(3)  Duke
(14)  UCSB

(7)  Iowa
(10)  Gonzaga
MILWAUKEE (THUR/SAT)
(2)  Creighton
(15)  Vermont

WEST (Anaheim)  THUR/SAT

(1)  Arizona
(16)  Davidson
SAN DIEGO (FRI/SUN)
(8)  SMU
(9)  Baylor

(5)  Kentucky
(12)  North Dakota State
SPOKANE (THUR/SAT)
(4)  San Diego State
(13)  Belmont

(6)  Ohio State
(11)  Oregon
SAN ANTONIO (FRI/SUN)
(3)  Iowa State
(14)  Stephen F. Austin

(7)  Memphis
(10)  St. Joseph’s
MILWAUKEE (THUR/SAT)
(2)  Wisconsin
(15)  Boston U.

MIDWEST (Indy)  FRI/SUN

(1)  Wichita State
(16)  Robert Morris/Weber State
ST. LOUIS (FRI/SUN)
(8)  Kansas State
(9)  Arizona State

(5)  UCLA
(12)  Green Bay
SAN DIEGO (FRI/SUN)
 (4)  Virginia
(13)  New Mexico State

(6)  Massachusetts
(11)  Xavier/BYU*
BUFFALO (THUR/SAT) 
(3)  Michigan
(14)  Iona

(7)  New Mexico
(10)  California
ST. LOUIS (FRI/SUN)
(2)  Kansas
(15)  Georgia State

EAST (New York City) FRI/SUN

(1)  Syracuse
(16)  North Carolina Central
BUFFALO (THUR/SAT)
(8)  Stanford
(9)  George Washington

(5)  Louisville
(12)  Oklahoma State*
SAN ANTONIO (FRI/SUN)
(4)  St. Louis
(13)  Harvard

(6)  Texas
(11)  Missouri
ORLANDO (THUR/SAT)
(3)  Michigan State
(14)  Mercer

(7)  Connecticut
(10)  Pittsburgh
RALEIGH (FRI/SUN)
(2)  Villanova
(15)  Delaware

*Oklahoma State moved from an 11 to a 12 for bracketing purposes
*BYU and Dayton moved from 12’s to 11 for bracketing purposes







Sunday, February 23, 2014

College Basketball Field of 68 - Seed List (Feb 23, 2014)

A little bit of a work in progress after a busy Saturday and Sunday.  Seed list is through completion of Creighton/Seton Hall game on 2/23.  Other Sunday results not yet included (Florida State/Pitt, Toledo/Ball State, 3 PAC 12 games).


*updated using Warren Nolan as of 6:20 PM CST
As of 2/23
As of 2/23
As of 2/23
As of 2/23
As of 2/23
As of 2/23
As of 2/23
As of 2/23
As of 2/23
Seed List
Team
Record
Conf. Record
Road Record
RPI (ESPN)
SOS (ESPN)
Vs Top 25
Vs Top 50
Vs Top 100
Vs Top 150
1.         
1
Florida
25-2
14-0
8-2
3
30
2-1
5-2
12-2
16-2
2.         
1
Arizona
25-2
12-2
7-2
2
9
4-0
9-2
14-2
17-2
3.         
1
Wichita State
28-0
16-0
11-0
9
112
1-0
2-0
7-0
17-0
4.         
1
Syracuse
25-2
12-2
6-1
8
70
3-1
8-1
13-1
17-1
5.         
2
Kansas
21-6
12-2
5-4
1
1
6-4
11-6
15-6
18-6
6.         
2
Villanova
24-3
12-2
9-2
4
22
1-3
3-3
12-3
18-3
7.         
2
Creighton
23-4
13-2
7-2
7*
20*
2-1
6-2
12-4
18-4
8.        
2
Wisconsin
22-5
9-5
7-2
5
2
5-2
8-3
14-4
18-5
9.         
3
Duke
22-6
11-4
4-4
6
6
4-4
5-4
9-5
15-6
10.      
3
Iowa State
21-5
9-5
4-4
12
35
3-4
8-4
9-5
13-5
11.       
3
Michigan
19-7
11-3
5-4
13*
3*
4-4
9-5
10-6
14-6
12.      
3
Michigan State
21-6
10-4
6-2
19*
19*
4-4
6-5
9-6
15-6
13.      
4
St. Louis
24-2
12-0
10-0
11
61
1-2
4-2
9-2
10-2
14.      
4
San Diego State
21-3
12-2
7-2
20
108
2-2
2-2
6-3
12-3
15.      
4
Virginia
23-5
14-1
7-3
15
46
1-3
3-3
9-5
14-5
16.      
4
Cincinnati
24-4
13-2
6-2
19
68
0-1
6-3
8-4
9-4
17.      
5
North Carolina
20-7
10-4
4-4
22
11
3-3
6-3
10-4
14-7
18.      
5
Louisville
23-4
12-2
8-1
29
103
1-3
4-4
5-4
7-4
19.      
5
UCLA
21-6
10-4
4-4
14
15
0-2
7-4
8-6
14-6
20.     
5
Kentucky
21-6
11-3
5-3
10
4
0-3
2-4
13-6
15-6
21.      
6
Ohio State
22-6
9-6
5-3
17
14
1-2
5-5
12-5
16-6
22.      
6
Texas
20-7
9-5
5-4
24
41
3-4
6-7
11-7
13-7
23.      
6
Oklahoma
20-7
9-5
4-3
23
18
2-3
7-4
9-6
13-7
24.      
6
Massachusetts
21-5
8-4
6-3
13
44
2-0
6-2
13-4
14-4
25.      
7
Iowa
19-7
8-5
4-3
34
54
2-7
4-7
7-7
11-7
26.      
7
New Mexico
21-5
12-2
7-1
21
32
2-2
2-2
7-4
14-5
27.      
7
Connecticut
20-6
8-5
4-3
31*
64*
1-1
3-5
8-5
9-5
28.     
8
Arizona State
19-8
8-6
4-4
32
55
1-3
4-5
7-6
11-7
29.      
9
Pittsburgh
20-7
8-6
4-2
44
57
0-6
1-6
5-7
10-7
30.     
7
Memphis
20-6
10-4
5-3
37
86
0-2
3-6
4-6
4-6
31.      
8
Kansas State
18-9
8-6
1-6
42
42
3-4
6-5
8-7
9-7
32.      
8
VCU
20-7
8-4
4-5
25
49
1-2
3-4
6-6
8-7
33.      
8
Stanford
17-8
8-5
6-3
41
51
1-3
5-6
6-8
9-8
34.      
9
SMU
22-6
11-4
6-5
37*
118*
1-2
4-3
5-4
7-4
35.      
9
Colorado
20-8
9-6
4-4
27
13
1-4
3-7
9-8
11-8
36.      
9
Geo. Washington
20-7
8-5
5-5
30
67
2-3
3-4
9-7
10-7
37.      
10
Gonzaga
22-6
13-3
5-4
31
99
0-0
1-3
7-4
11-5
38.     
10
California
17-9
8-5
5-4
49
47
1-4
3-6
7-7
11-8
39.      
10
St. Joseph’s
19-7
9-3
7-3
39
72
2-4
2-5
5-6
8-6
40.     
10
Baylor
16-9
6-8
3-4
39
7
1-7
5-7
7-8
8-9
41.      
11
Missouri
19-8
7-7
3-5
44
69
1-2
1-2
8-7
11-8
42.      
11
Oregon
17-8
5-8
3-5
38
31
0-2
1-6
8-8
10-8
43.      
11
Oklahoma State
17-10
5-9
2-6
47
24
1-5
3-9
6-9
10-10
44.      
11
Nebraska
16-10
8-6
2-7
49*
26*
2-6
3-7
6-7
11-10
45.      
11
Xavier       
18-9
8-6
3-5
57
91
1-2
1-3
6-7
13-8
46.      
12
Dayton
19-8
7-5
5-3
55
71
0-2
3-5
7-5
9-6
47.      
12
BYU
19-10
12-5
4-7
36
21
1-3
3-5
7-6
11-8
.     











49.      
12
Green Bay
19-5
12-2
7-2
56
149
1-1
1-1
4-3
6-4
50.     
12
Toledo
21-4
10-3
8-4
28
134
0-1
0-1
2-4
6-4
51.      
12
North Dakota St
18-6
10-2
10-5
43
115
0-1
0-2
2-3
7-5
52.      
13
Harvard
21-4
9-1
9-3
52
211
0-0
0-2
2-2
8-3
53.      
13
Belmont
21-8
13-2
7-7
61
133
1-2
1-3
3-4
8-7
54.      
13
New Mexico State
20-8
10-3
7-6
79
178
1-2
1-3
3-4
3-4
55.      
13
Middle Tennessee
19-7
11-2
7-4
69
140
0-2
1-2
1-6
4-6
56.      
14
Mercer
19-7
13-3
8-7
73*
210*
0-2
0-2
1-3
5-4
57.      
14
Iona
19-8
16-2
9-6
72*
154
0-1
0-1
2-5
4-8
58.     
14
Stephen F Austin
23-2
14-0
12-2
71
320
0-1
0-1
0-1
3-1
59.      
14
UCSB
16-7
9-3
7-4
103
235
0-1
1-2
1-2
5-4
60.     
15
Delaware
20-9
12-2
9-7
74*
153*
0-2
0-4
0-5
5-8
61.      
15
Boston U.
20-9
13-3
9-4
94*
169*
0-0
0-3
2-4
4-4
62.      
15
Georgia State
18-7
13-1
7-6
95
279
0-0
0-1
0-2
3-5
63.      
15
Vermont
17-9
13-1
8-7
105*
219*
0-1
0-2
0-6
2-6
64.      
16
NC Central
19-5
12-1
9-5
126
345
0-2
0-2
1-3
1-3
65.      
16
Davidson
16-11
13-1
9-3
150
204
0-5
0-5
1-6
1-9
66.      
16
Robert Morris
18-11
13-1
8-9
129
247
0-1
0-3
0-6
0-8
67.      
16
Weber State
13-9
12-4
4-8
172
280
0-1
0-2
0-2
0-3
68.     
16
Southern U.
13-11
12-2
7-8
186
262
0-2
0-3
0-6
0-7
69.      
16
VMI
13-10
10-4
4-8
222
314
0-0
0-0
0-1
0-4