Friday, February 1, 2013

College Basketball 2012-13 - Atlantic 10 Progress Report

Butler (16-4, 4-2, RPI=13, Sag=33)
Top 25 Wins:  Marquette, Indiana, Gonzaga
26-50 Wins:  North Carolina, Temple
51-100 Wins:  Northwestern, St. Joseph's, Richmond
Losses: Xavier, Illinois, LaSalle, St. Louis
Road/Neutral:  7-4
Bottom Line:  Barring an unforeseen collapse, Butler is playing for seed right now.  Not many teams can match those Top 25 wins.

VCU (17-5, 5-2, RPI=43, Sag=31)
Top 25 Wins: Belmont
26-50 Wins: Memphis
51-100 Wins: Alabama, Lehigh, St. Joseph's
Losses: Wichita State, Duke, Missouri, Richmond, LaSalle
Road/Neutral: 7-3
Bottom Line:  VCU's recent struggles have them closer to the bubble than lock status.  7 games remain against the RPI top 100, including a showdown with Butler.  4 more wins getting them to 9-7 in conference should lock up a bid.

Temple (14-6, 3-3, RPI=50, Sag=54)
Top 25 Wins:  Syracuse
26-50 Wins:  None
51-100 Wins:  Villanova, St. Louis, Richmond
Losses:  Duke, Canisius, Kansas, Xavier, St. Bonaventure, Butler
Road/Neutral:  5-4
Bottom Line:  Temple also has had recent struggles placing them squarely on the bubble.  The win over Syracuse only carries weight if the rest of the resume stacks up.  6 games remain against the RPI top 100.  2 wins in those are a must and quite possibly 3 would be necessary.  If I was Temple, 10-6 in conference would be my target line.

St. Louis (15-5, 4-2, RPI=56, Sag=40)
Top 25 Wins:  New Mexico, Butler
26-50 Wins:  Massachusetts
51-100 Wins:  Texas A&M, Valparaiso
Losses:  Santa Clara, Kansas, Washington, Temple, Rhode Island
Road/Neutral: 3-3
Bottom Line:  HUGE win for St. Louis last night, giving them two impressive victories on their resume.  7 of the final 8 are against the RPI top 100 and the only one that is not is against surging George Washington.  The Billikens RPI is back at a tolerable level and they would be back in my Field of 68 if I produced a bracket today.  A 6-4 finish with 3 more top 100 wins would likely sew up a bid.

LaSalle (14-6, 4-3, RPI=31, Sag=59)
Top 25 Wins:  Butler
26-50 Wins:  VCU
51-100 Wins:  Villanova, Iona, Richmond
Losses:  Central Connecticut, Bucknell, Miami, FL, Charlotte, Xavier, Massachusetts
Road/Neutral:  5-4
Bottom Line:  Currently, the good RPI and 2 big wins have them in the Field of 68.  Unlike the teams above, LaSalle only has 3 of their final 9 against RPI top 100 teams, meaning the RPI is likely to fall and will take a big hit if they lose to anyone other than George Washington outside the top 100.  The Explorers might need to finish 7-2 or the A-10 Tourney, which should be wild anyway, could loom very important for them.

Charlotte (16-4, 4-2, RPI=62, Sag=110)
Top 25 Wins:  None
26-50 Wins:  LaSalle
51-100 Wins:  Xavier
Losses:  Miami FL, Florida State, Richmond, George Washington
Road/Neutral:  6-3
Bottom Line:  Gaudy record, lack of good wins. Next 6 games against the RPI Top 56.  If they can go 4-2 in those games, we'll talk.

Massachusetts (14-5, 4-2, RPI=48, Sag=101)
Top 25 Wins:  None
26-50 Wins:  LaSalle
51-100 Wins:  Harvard, Ohio, Richmond
Losses:  NC State, Tennessee, Miami, FL, St. Louis, George Washington
Road/Neutral:  8-3
Bottom Line:  See Charlotte as far as record and wins.  Also has 6 more cracks at the RPI top 100, starting with a showdown against Charlotte on Saturday.  Despite the RPI, a long shot at this point.

St. Joseph's (12-7, 3-3, RPI=90, Sag=58)
Top 25 Wins: None
26-50 Wins: Notre Dame
51-100 Wins: Harvard, Iona, Xavier
Losses: Florida State, Creighton, Villanova, Fairfield, Butler, VCU, St. Bonaventure
Road/Neutral: 6-4
Bottom Line:  The RPI needs to go from 90 to 55, and that might take an 8-2 finish.

Xavier (12-8, 5-2, RPI=70, Sag=78)
Top 25 Wins:  Butler
26-50 Wins:  LaSalle, Temple
51-100 Wins:  None
Losses:  Pacific, Vanderbilt, Cincinnati, Wofford, Tennessee, Wake Forest, Charlotte, St. Joseph's
Road/Neutral:  4-6
Bottom Line:  The quality wins are there, but so are the typical bad losses.  Xavier is tied for the A-10 lead, but is a long shot for a bid as we stand today.  The Good News:  The final 5 games are against the RPI top 56.  The Bad News:  They can't trip up in the next 5 against lesser opponents, something they can't seem to avoid.  An 8-2 finish and 12-4 in the A-10 should at least put them on the bubble.

NOTE:  Only teams with a top 75 RPI or Sagarin are listed

No comments:

Post a Comment

Let me know your feedback...