Thursday, October 24, 2013

College Football 2013 - Week 9 Jabesblog Picks

Season Record: 160-123-2 (ATS)  217-68 (Straight-Up)
Last Week:  28-17 (ATS)  31-14 (Straight-Up)

62% for Week 8, not sure what is good.   It was another one of those crazy weeks where my ATS was very close to my SU.  Here is what I have for Week 9.

Louisiana-Lafayette (-2.5) 34, Arkansas State 30  (W)
This game is a toss-up game to me, but I went against ULL on the road last week, so I will try them this week
Mississippi State 30, Kentucky (+10.5) 21  (W)
It is uncanny how the offensive vs defensive statistics line-up for both teams
Marshall (-8.5) 30, Middle Tennessee 17  (L)
The Marshall run defense takes away what the Blue Raiders do best
BYU 28, Boise State (+7.5) 24  (L)
Even though Boise State is on a back-up QB, it feels like these two teams are evenly matched
Georgia Tech (-10) 31, Virginia 13  (T)
Virginia supported their coach even if he doesn;t win another game this that is confidence
UCF (-22.5) 45, Connecticut 14  (W)
UConn's average road defeat is 41-14 against teams worse than UCF
Ball State (-10) 38, Akron 20  (W)
Akron has done some nice things, but Ball State is way to explosive for them
Ohio (-25) 44, Miami, OH 10  (T)
Rivalry games scare me, but the Miami, OH offense is scary bad
Buffalo (-2) 31, Kent State 17  (W)
I love the Bulls this year and will even take them as a road favorite
Western Michigan (+3) 14, Massachusetts 12  (W)
The weekly MAC stinker, give me the points
Rutgers 34, Houston (+7) 33  (W)
Eventually Houston will not cover, but give me the 6-0 ATS Cougars
North Carolina 31, Boston College (+7.5) 26  (L)
I really like that extra half point, especially since UNC has disappointed the entire season
Clemson (-14) 45, Maryland 14  (L)
Your QB isn't right, you lose your starting WR to broken legs in the same game and you get an angry Clemson team...uh oh
Virginia Tech 23, Duke (+13.5) 13  (W)
Duke showed me something last week and this is a lot for a defensive team like the Hokies to cover
Pittsburgh (-6) 35, Navy 21  (L)
Navy is great at home, but my Paul Chryst bias says he has the Panthers headed in the right direction
UTSA 28, UAB (+7) 26  (L)
I think these teams are fairly evenly matched, so give me the points
SMU 34, Temple (+13) 24  (W)
The Owls have found a productive QB and the Mustangs turn the ball over too much
Northern Illinois (-30) 59, Eastern Michigan 21  (W)
You never know where the emotions of a team like Eastern Michigan will take them
Arizona (-14) 42, Colorado 19  (W)
The duo of Carey and Denker will run wild on the Buffaloes
Texas A&M 44, Vanderbilt (+17.5) 37  (L)
This A&M defense makes it impossible for me to take these double-digit spreads
Auburn 35, Florida Atlantic (+23.5) 20  (L)
Auburn should run, run, run, but their defense isn't exactly staunch
Alabama (-27.5) 41, Tennessee 10  (W)
Alabama is 7-0 ATS the last 3 years with similar lines
Oregon (-23.5) 50, UCLA 21  (W)
After last week's craziness, I feel like the top teams are going to roll this week
USC 16, Utah (+6.5) 13  (L)
Tough for me to give that many with a banged-up Trojan squad
Tulane (+2.5) 29, Tulsa 24  (W)
Sometimes you have to shed past perceptions or expectations and realize Tulane is better than Tulsa in 2013
Washington (-24.5) 45, California 16  (L)
Cal will cover one of these weeks, but I won't pick it when it does
Kansas State 31, West Virgina (+10) 27  (L)
That is a lot of points for a team winless in the Big 12...both teams are desperate
Michigan State (-10) 26, Illinois 13  (W)
A lot of momentum toward the Illini here, but the numbers say Sparty...not the strongest play of the week
Miami, FL 37, Wake Forest (+23.5) 19  (W)
My gut says this is too many points against a confident Demon Deacons team
Florida State (-31.5) 56, NC State 6  (W)
I love the talk of a trap game...FSU is beating teams at home by an average of 60-4.  Have you met Jameis yet?
Texas Tech (+6.5) 27, Oklahoma 21  (L)
Oklahoma's defense isn't the same without injured players so it is time for an upset special
Texas (+2.5) 23, TCU 17  (W)
Consecutive Big 12 'dogs, I like the Longhorns in a slugfest
Northwestern (+3.5) 24, Iowa 23  (L)
The Wildcats always have played the Hawkeyes tough and need to save their season
Nevada (-6) 45, UNLV 35  (L)
Two teams that can be run all over, but the Wolfpack are a decent home cover
San Jose State (-7.5) 43, Wyoming 27  (L)
This one looks to me like two teams headed in opposite directions
Stanford (-3.5) 30, Oregon State 20  (W)
Vegas is respecting Stanford less than the polls and pundits, but I am actually a Beaver disbeliever
Western Kentucky 35, Troy (+10.5) 31  (W)
The Hilltoppers are too turnover prone and Troy has kept it close except for one oops game
Notre Dame 30, Air Force (+20) 17  (L)
I don't believe in the Irish offense enough to give 20 points
ULM 20, Georgia State (+11.5) 17  (L)
All the trends say Georgia State and ULM is very limited offensively
South Alabama (-1.5) 27, Texas State 20  (L)
Texas State has been good at home, so this one scares me a bit
Ole Miss 48, Idaho (+41) 17  (L)
When has Ole Miss had to cover a spread this big? 
North Texas (-11.5) 34, Southern Miss 3  (W)
The North Texas defense is really good and Southern Miss is really bad
Louisiana Tech (-6) 28, FIU 17  (W)
I don't love Louisiana Tech, but in Kenneth Dixon I will trust
Missouri (-2.5) 31, South Carolina 21  (L)
Why stop picking Missouri now?
Oklahoma State 27, Iowa State (+13) 22  (L)
Baylor can do strange things to you, otherwise the Cyclones have been competitive
Baylor (-34.5) 62, Kansas 14  (W)
Baylor will do strange things to the Jayhawks
Nebraska (-10.5) 35, Minnesota 17  (L)
The Cornhuskers are starting to get it rolling
Louisville (-20) 38, South Florida 10  (W)
I would expect Teddy Bridgewater to atone for last week's disappointment
Bowling Green (-3.5) 27, Toledo 21  (L)
David Fluellen is too important a loss for the Rockets against a better team
Ohio State 37, Penn State (+14.5) 28  (L)
The Nittany Lions can expose the Buckeyes biggest weakness in pass defense
Rice 38, UTEP (+17.5) 27  (L)
Rice is the better team, but that is a lot of points in the strange C-USA world
Fresno State (-8) 42, San Diego State 26  (L)
Fresno is rolling, but struggles some on grass...still going with them
Colorado State (-3) 48, Hawaii 35  (W)
The island travel aside, Colorado State is a much better team

Record This Week:  25-26-2 (ouch!!)
Record This Season:  185-149-4

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