Field of 68 - Seed List, February 28, 2013

After Wednesday's Action:

1 - Duke, Indiana, Gonzaga, Miami, FL
2 - Kansas, Georgetown, Florida, New Mexico
3 - Louisville, Michigan, Michigan State, Arizona
4 - Syracuse, Kansas State, Wisconsin, Marquette
5 - UNLV, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, St. Louis
6 - Colorado State, Butler, Notre Dame, Minnesota
7 - Illinois, Pittsburgh, UCLA, Memphis
8 - San Diego State, NC State, Colorado, VCU
9 - Oregon, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Missouri
10 - Wichita State, Cincinnati, California, Temple
11 - Creighton, Iowa State, Belmont, Villanova
12 - LaSalle, St. Mary's/Kentucky, Virginia/Tennessee, Middle Tennessee
13 - Louisiana Tech, Akron, Bucknell, South Dakota State
14 - Valparaiso, Harvard, Stephen F Austin, Davidson
15 - Stony Brook, Montana, Robert Morris, Niagara
16 - Long Beach State, Northeastern, Mercer/Norfolk State, Southern/Charleston Southern

• Lots of movement after an interesting night of basketball.  Michigan had the most surprising loss, one that has derailed their quest for a #1 seed.  They could still sweep Michigan State and Indiana at home to close the regular season, which would get them back in the discussion entering the Big 10 tournament.
• Arizona's loss to USC was less surprising, but they are now hanging onto a thread on the 3-line.  The disheartening part of this from a bracketing standpoint is that it brings San Jose all that much closer to taking up 2 of the 4 spots on the 4-line and making the seeding of the First Round games all the more difficult.
• Wichita State potentially got their last mulligan.  The winner Saturday in their game with Creighton is a lock, while the loser has to at least win one in "Arch Madness".
• Thursday's best game is Duke at Virginia.  The Cavaliers need this one to improve their RPI and get a little more comfortable come Selection Sunday.  The only other game I find interesting is whether Gonzaga can avoid a slip-up in Provo against BYU. 

East
(1) Duke vs (16) Northeastern
Philadelphia, PA
(8) San Diego State vs (9) Oregon

(5) Oklahoma State vs (12) LaSalle
San Jose, CA
(4) Marquette vs (13) South Dakota State

(6) Notre Dame vs (11) Creighton
Auburn Hills, MI
(3)  Michigan State vs (14) Harvard

(7) Memphis vs (10) Wichita State
Austin, TX
(2) Florida vs (15) Niagara

South
(1) Miami, FL vs (16) Norflok State/Charleston Southern
Lexington, KY
(8) VCU vs (9) Missouri

(5) UNLV vs (12) Middle Tennessee
Austin, TX
(4) Wisconsin vs (13) Akron

(6) Minnesota vs (11) Belmont
Dayton, OH
(3) Louisville vs (14) Stephen F Austin

(7) UCLA vs (10) Cincinnati
Kansas City, MO
(2) Kansas vs (15) Robert Morris

Midwest
(1) Indiana vs (16) Mercer/Southern
Dayton, OH
(8) NC State vs (9) Oklahoma

(5) St. Louis vs (12) Tennessee/St. Mary's
Lexington, KY
(4) Syracuse vs (13) Bucknell

(6) Colorado State vs (11) Iowa State
San Jose, CA
(3) Arizona vs (14) Valparaiso

(7) Illinois vs (10) Temple
Philadelphia, PA
(2) Georgetown vs (15) Stony Brook

West
(1) Gonzaga vs (16) Long Beach State
Salt Lake City, UT
(8) Colorado vs (9) North Carolina

(5) Ohio State vs (12) Kentucky/Virginia
Kansas City, MO
(4) Kansas State vs (13) Louisiana Tech

(6) Butler vs (11) Villanova
Auburn Hills, MI
(3) Michigan vs (14) Davidson

(7) Pittsburgh vs (10) California
Salt Lake City, UT
(2) New Mexico vs (15) Montana

Field of 68 - Seed List, Feburary 27, 2013

After Tuesday's Action:

1 - Duke, Indiana, Gonzaga, Miami, FL
2 - Kansas, Michigan, Georgetown, Florida
3 - Louisville, Arizona, New Mexico, Michigan State
4 - Syracuse, Kansas State, Wisconsin, Marquette
5 - UNLV, Oklahoma State, Colorado State, Ohio State
6 - St. Louis, Butler, Notre Dame, Minnesota
7 - Illinois, Pittsburgh, San Diego State, Oklahoma
8 - Memphis, NC State, Wichita State, UCLA
9 - Oregon, VCU, Colorado, North Carolina
10 - Missouri, Cincinnati, California, Temple
11 - Creighton, Iowa State, Belmont, Villanova
12 - LaSalle, St. Mary's, Kentucky, Virginia, Tennessee, Middle Tennessee
13 - Louisiana Tech, Akron, Bucknell, South Dakota State
14 - Valparaiso, Harvard, Stephen F Austin, Davidson
15 - Stony Brook, Montana, Robert Morris, Niagara
16 - Long Beach State, Northeastern, Mercer/Norfolk State, Southern/Charleston Southern

• Tough losses for Indiana and Florida last night, but the two home teams, Minnesota and Tennessee were desperate for a victory.  I had a feeling at least one would fall last night.  I chose to leave both Indiana and Florida in their spots, but Florida has definitely moved to the end of the 2-line and could be surpassed by Louisville or New Mexico at any point. 
• More on the #1 seeds - my current struggle is that I have teams with RPI's of 8 and 10 as #1 seeds.  In recent history that I have data on, teams have received #1 seeds with these RPI's, but not two this low in the same season. (Neither of these teams lost to TCU though)
• Tennessee has earned their way into the Field of 68 with a hot streak that hit its high point with a victory over Florida last night.
• Wednesday night brings us quality match-ups in Georgetown at Connecticut and San Diego State at New Mexico, as well as Bubblicious games with Kentucky, Ole Miss, St. Mary's, Arizona State, Arkansas, Iowa, Boise State, Indiana State and Charlotte all in action.

Field of 68 - Seed List, February 26, 2013

After Monday's Action:

1 - Indiana, Duke, Gonzaga, Miami, FL
2 - Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Georgetown
3 - Louisville, Arizona, New Mexico, Michigan State
4 - Syracuse, Kansas State, Wisconsin, Marquette
5 - UNLV, Oklahoma State, Colorado State, Ohio State
6 - St. Louis, Butler, Illinois, Notre Dame
7 - Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Memphis, San Diego State
8 - NC State, Oklahoma, UCLA, Wichita State
9 - Oregon, VCU, Colorado, North Carolina
10 - Missouri, Cincinnati, California, Temple
11 - Creighton, Iowa State, Belmont, Villanova
12 - LaSalle, St. Mary's, Kentucky, Virginia, Boise State, Middle Tennessee
13 - Louisiana Tech, Akron, Bucknell, South Dakota State
14 - Valparaiso, Harvard, Stephen F Austin, Davidson
15 - Stony Brook, Montana, Robert Morris, Niagara
16 - Long Beach State, Northeastern, Mercer/Norfolk State, Southern/Charleston Southern

• Marquette with the big win of the night, moving them back to the #4 line and sending UNLV back to #5, which is probably correct anyway. 
• Villanova with the big loss of the night, blowing a 4 point lead in the last 20 seconds against Seton Hall.  Their quality wins keep them in the Field, but they need to split their remaining games and get at least a win in the Big East Tourney to solidify their positioning.
• Tuesday brings us Indiana at Minnesota, Memphis at Xavier, and Florida at Tennessee.  The most important result is for the Vols, who can push their way into the field with a win tonight.  With a loss, they might be left without a signature win to impress the committee.

Field of 68 - Seed List, February 25, 2013

After This Weekend's Action:

1 - Indiana, Duke, Gonzaga, Miami, FL
2 - Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Georgetown
3 - Louisville, Arizona, New Mexico, Michigan State
4 - Syracuse, Kansas State, Wisconsin, UNLV
5 - Marquette, Oklahoma State, Colorado State, Ohio State
6 - St. Louis, Butler, Illinois, Notre Dame
7 - Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Memphis, San Diego State
8 - NC State, Oklahoma, UCLA, Wichita State
9 - Oregon, VCU, Colorado, North Carolina
10 - Missouri, Cincinnati, California, Villanova
11 - Creighton, Temple, Iowa State, Belmont
12 - LaSalle, St. Mary's, Kentucky, Virginia, Boise State, Middle Tennessee
13 - Louisiana Tech, Akron, Bucknell, South Dakota State
14 - Valparaiso, Harvard, Stephen F Austin, Davidson
15 - Stony Brook, Montana, Robert Morris, Niagara
16 - Long Beach State, Northeastern, Mercer/Norfolk State, Southern/Charleston Southern

Field of 68 - Seed List, February 22, 2013

After Thursday's Action (Green=Moved Up, Red=Moved Down, Blue=Moved In):

1 - Miami, FL, Indiana, Duke, Gonzaga
2 - Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Michigan State
3 - Syracuse, Arizona, New Mexico, Louisville
4 - Georgetown, Kansas State, Marquette, Butler
5 - Oklahoma State, Wisconsin, Colorado State, Illinois
6 - NC State, UNLV, Pittsburgh, Ohio State
7 -  Minnesota, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, St. Louis
8 - San Diego State, UCLA, Memphis, Oregon
9 - Wichita State, VCU, Missouri, Cincinnati
10 - Colorado, Creighton, North Carolina, LaSalle
11 - California, Iowa State, Belmont, Temple
12 - Villanova, St. Mary's, Virginia, Charlotte, Arizona State, Middle Tennessee
13 - Louisiana Tech, Akron, Bucknell, South Dakota State
14 - Valparaiso, Harvard, Stephen F Austin, Davidson
15 - Stony Brook, Montana, Long Beach State, Robert Morris
16 - Niagara, Northeastern, Mercer/Norfolk State, Southern/High Point

Quick Hits:

• A quiet night in Bracketville results in only a few minor tweaks.  Although I don't love Ohio State's body of work, the 6-line came open for them and warranted a move upward.  I did a slight adjustment for St. Louis who has had injuries and the obvious other obstacles they have overcome in getting to 20-5. 
• Kentucky hosts Missouri and St. John's hosts Pittsburgh this weekend.  A win by either would put them next in line to rejoin the field.

East Region
(1)  Miami, FL vs (16) Mercer/Norfolk State
Lexington, KY
(8)  San Diego State vs (9) Missouri

(5)  Colorado State vs (12)  Virginia/Arizona State
Lexington. KY
(4)  Georgetown vs (13)  Bucknell

(6)  Pittsburgh vs (11)  Iowa State
San Jose, CA
(3)  Arizona vs (14)  Stephen F Austin

(7)  St. Louis vs (10)  North Carolina
Auburn Hills, MI
(2)  Michigan State vs (15)  Montana

West Region
(1)  Gonzaga vs (16)  Niagara
Salt Lake City, UT
(8)  Memphis vs (9)  Wichita State

(5)  Wisconsin vs (12)  Villanova
Austin, TX
(4)  Butler vs (13)  Akron

(6)  NC State vs (11)  Belmont
Philadelphia, PA
(3)  Syracuse vs (14)  Davidson

(7)  Minnesota vs (10)  Colorado
Kansas City, MO
(2)  Kansas vs (15)  Long Beach State

Midwest Region
(1)  Indiana vs (16)  Southern/High Point
Dayton, OH
(8)  UCLA vs (9)  VCU

(5)  Oklahoma State vs (12)  Middle Tennessee
San Jose, CA
(4)  Marquette vs (13)  South Dakota State

(6)  Ohio State vs (11)  California
Salt Lake City, UT
(3)  New Mexico vs (14)  Valparaiso

(7)  Notre Dame vs (10)  LaSalle
Dayton, OH
(2)  Florida vs (15)  Stony Brook

South Region
(1)  Duke vs (16)  Northeastern
Philadelphia, PA
(8)  Oregon vs (9)  Cincinnati

(5)  Illinois vs (12)  St. Mary's/Charlotte
Kansas City, MO
(4)  Kansas State vs (13)  Louisiana Tech

(6)  UNLV vs (11)  Temple
Austin, TX
(3)  Louisville vs (14)  Harvard

(7)  Oklahoma vs (10)  Creighton
Auburn Hills, MI
(2)  Michigan vs (15)  Robert Morris

Field of 68 - This Year's Bid Stealers

As the Bracketology world puts together their brackets this time of year, we all talk about the soft bubble and compare the mediocre resumes of the teams vying for those last at-large spots.  All brackets right now are completed assuming the maximum number of at-large spots are available, which could very-well hold true, but there is always the chance for "Bid Stealers" or "Bubble Shrinkers".  They are the worst nightmare for teams on the Bubble, teams who may have only done almost enough to earn a bid.  So where might those potential bid stealers come from this year?  Who are the most likely bubble shrinkers?  For teams like Ole Miss, Virginia, Arizona State, Charlotte, etc...do your part, but root against these guys as well!!

A team other than Gonzaga from the West Coast Conference
With St. Mary's squarely on the Bubble pending games against BYU and Creighton, any team other than Gonzaga that wins the West Coast Conference Tourney would be in theory stealing a bid.  St. Mary's and BYU would be the most likely candidates.

A team other than Memphis from Conference-USA
Memphis is doing enough to lock down an at-large berth, so barring a late February/early March swoon, the Tigers will be in the Field of 68.  Southern Miss and UTEP might be candidates to upend Memphis in the C-USA Tourney.

A 3rd team from the Missouri Valley
While Creighton and Wichita State are closer to the Bubble than they were a month ago, both would appear safe at this time.  The Missouri Valley has provided some bubble shrinking in the past, and Indiana State, Northern Iowa, Illinois State and Evansville have proven they can beat the Blue Jays and Shockers.

An SEC team on the outside-looking-in
As of today, Jabesblog has the SEC as a two-bid league.  Kentucky or Ole Miss can earn their way onto the Bubble, but will be nervous come Selection Sunday unless they win the SEC Tourney.  If Florida is knocked off, Missouri is hardly unbeatable away from home.  Tennessee would be a great darkhorse here.

An Atlantic 10 team from out-of-nowhere
Think St. Bonaventure last season.  The Atlantic 10 is deep and while a team would have to carve their way through 2 or maybe 3 NCAA Tourney teams, it does not seem unfathomable in this league.  When Xavier gets hot, they can beat anyone.  Same goes for St. Joseph's.  Or Massachusetts.  Richmond or George Washington.  And don't forget Charlotte or Temple might need it by that time too.

A 2nd team from the Ohio Valley
It all depends on how Belmont is perceived by the committee, but if they can win-out to the OVC Final from this point, it might be tough to keep them out of the dance, leaving Murray State or Eastern Kentucky in position to burst someones bubble.

Stanford, Washington or USC
The separation between the PAC-12 leaders and these two is not that great.  Any of the 3 could rip through the PAC-12 Tourney without much notice.

Field of 68 - Seed List, February 21, 2013

After Wednesday's Action (Green=Moved Up, Red=Moved Down, Blue=Moved In):

1 - Miami, FL, Indiana, Duke, Gonzaga
2 - Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Michigan State
3 - Syracuse, Arizona, New Mexico, Louisville
4 - Georgetown, Kansas State, Marquette, Butler
5 - Oklahoma State, Wisconsin, Colorado State, Illinois
6 - Oregon, NC State, UNLV, Pittsburgh
7 -  Ohio State, Minnesota, Notre Dame, Oklahoma
8 - Cincinnati, San Diego State, UCLA, Memphis
9 - Wichita State, VCU, St. Louis, Missouri
10 - Colorado, Creighton, North Carolina, LaSalle
11 - California, Iowa State, Belmont, Temple
12 - Villanova, St. Mary's, Virginia, Charlotte, Arizona State, Middle Tennessee
13 - Louisiana Tech, Akron, Bucknell, South Dakota State
14 - Valparaiso, Harvard, Stephen F Austin, Davidson
15 - Stony Brook, Montana, Long Beach State, Robert Morris
16 - Niagara, Northeastern, Mercer/Norfolk State, Southern/High Point

Quick Hits:

• If you didn't see the Oklahoma State-Kansas game, it was like a heavyweight fight where neither team led by more than 5 points at any time.  It pains me to move the Cowboys down after such an effort, but it is still a home loss and knocks them out of the conference lead.  It will be interesting how the committee sees the TCU loss, because Kansas just notched their 10th top 50 win (Florida has 5, Gonzaga 3 in comparison) to lead the nation.
• Minnesota has fallen on hard times and needed to take a fall in the bracket. 
• Ole Miss lost to South Carolina last night and is not included in today's field.  It is at least like a time-out you give to your child, but it might end up being a permanent punishment.  I think Alabama is surpassing them in resume now from the SEC.
• Baylor is also in big trouble after losing at home to Iowa State.  With a tough finishing schedule, I am also removing the Bears from the field based on the fact that I think they end up with at least 14 losses.
• Charlotte gets to move back in by not laying a weekday game, but must win at Temple Sunday to solidify consideration.  Arizona State is also back in, but just like Virginia, they still have a lot to prove.
• Kentucky hosts Missouri and St. John's hosts Pittsburgh this weekend.  A win by either would put them next in line to rejoin the field.

Field of 68, Seed List - February 20, 2013

After Tuesday's Action (Green=Moved Up, Red=Moved Down, Blue=Moved In):

1 - Miami, FL, Indiana, Duke, Gonzaga
2 - Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Michigan State
3 - Syracuse, Arizona, New Mexico, Louisville
4 - Georgetown, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Butler
5 - Marquette, Wisconsin, Colorado State, Minnesota
6 - Illinois, Oregon, NC State, UNLV
7 -  Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Oklahoma
8 - Cincinnati, San Diego State, UCLA, Wichita State
9 - VCU, St. Louis, Missouri, Memphis
10 - Colorado, Creighton, North Carolina, LaSalle
11 - California, Ole Miss, Iowa State, Belmont
12 - Baylor, Villanova, Temple, St. Mary's, Virginia, Middle Tennessee
13 - Louisiana Tech, Akron, Bucknell, South Dakota State
14 - Valparaiso, Harvard, Stephen F Austin, Davidson
15 - Stony Brook, Montana, Long Beach State, Robert Morris
16 - Niagara, Northeastern, Mercer/Norfolk State, Southern/High Point
Quick Hits:

• I have gone back and forth all morning on the 4th #1 seed and have given in to Gonzaga at this point, but it is in pencil and not pen.  I struggle with a team that has an RPI of 12 from the West Coast Conference getting a #1 seed, but right now the next group of teams is in prove it mode.
• I have also finally corrected for Memphis.  I was taking the easy route with 1-bid leagues, but the Tigers are worthy of a better seed.
• The 68th team for now is Virginia, despite two consecutive losses.  They have more work to do, but their wins are better than the next group of bubble contenders, which inlcudes Kentucky, Charlotte, Arizona State, Alabama and St. John's.

Field of 68 - February 17, 2013

After a fairly calm weekend, I thought I'd throw a bracket on my seed list and see where everyone might be headed...

Midwest - Indianapolis, IN
1.    Indiana
16.  Southern U./Mercer
Dayton, OH
8.    UCLA
9.    Notre Dame

5.    Colorado State
12.  Memphis
Austin, TX
4.    Oklahoma State
13.  Akron

6.    NC State
11.  Ole Miss
Philadelphia, PA
3.    Syracuse
14.  Valparaiso

7.    Ohio State
10.  Creighton
Salt Lake City, UT
2.    Gonzaga
15.  Long Beach State

East - Washington D.C.
1.    Miami, FL
16.  Northeastern
Austin, TX
8.    Oklahoma
9.    Missouri

5.    Minnesota
12.  Middle Tennessee
San Jose, CA
4.    Butler
13.  South Dakota State

6.    Oregon
11.  Temple/Villanova
Lexington, KY
3.    Louisville
14.  Harvard

7.    UNLV
10.  Iowa State
Auburn Hills, MI
2.   Michigan
15. Stony Brook

South - Arlington, TX
1.    Florida
16.  Norfolk State/High Point
Lexington, KY
8.    Wichita State
9.    St. Louis

5.    Wisconsin
12.  St. Mary's/Arizona State
Dayton, OH
4.    Georgetown
13.  Bucknell

6.    Illinois
11.  California
Salt Lake City, UT
3.    New Mexico
14.  Davidson

7.    Cincinnati
10.  LaSalle
Kansas City, MO
2.    Kansas
15.  Montana

West
1.    Duke
16.  Niagara
Philadelphia, PA
8.    San Diego State
9.    Colorado

5.    Marquette
12.  Belmont
Kansas City, MO
4.    Kansas State
13.  Louisiana Tech

6.    Pittsburgh
11.  Baylor
San Jose, CA
3.    Arizona
14.  Stephen F Austin

7.    VCU
10.  North Carolina
Auburn Hills, MI
2.    Michigan State
15.  Robert Morris

Field of 68 - Seed List, February 15, 2013

After Thursday's Action (Green=Moved Up, Red=Moved Down, Blue=Moved In):

1 - Duke, Miami, FL, Indiana, Florida
2 - Michigan State, Michigan, Gonzaga, Kansas
3 - Syracuse, Arizona, New Mexico, Louisville
4 - Georgetown, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Butler
5 - Pittsburgh, Ohio State, Minnesota, Marquette
6 - Wisconsin, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Colorado State
7 -  NC State, Illinois, Oklahoma, Colorado
8 - Missouri, San Diego State, Oregon, VCU
9 - Wichita State, UNLV, UCLA, LaSalle
10 - Creighton, North Carolina, Baylor, Iowa State
11 - Kentucky, St. Louis, Ole Miss, Indiana State/California
12 - St. John's/Charlotte, Belmont, Middle Tennessee, Memphis
13 - Louisiana Tech, Akron, Bucknell, Valparaiso
14 - Valparaiso, Harvard, Stephen F Austin, Long Beach State, Davidson
15 - Stony Brook, Montana, Florida Gulf Coast, Western Illinois
16 - Niagara, Northeastern, Bryant/Norfolk State, Southern/UNC-Asheville

Quick Hits:

• California and Charlotte are new to the Field this morning, rewarded for recent quality wins that have strengthened their resumes.  Temple had a brutal home loss to Duquesne dropping them from the Field.  The Owls have a remaining schedule that will allow them to play their way back in.  St. Mary's also dropped out, and it now looks like they need to beat Creighton in the Bracket Busters to even warrant consideration.
• A little shuffle in the PAC-12 as well...I had been over-seeding UCLA based on talent and the mini-hot streak they had back in January.  And Arizona falls back to a 3-seed after a second straight conference loss.

Field of 68 - Seed List, February 14, 2013

After Wednesday's Action:

1 - Duke, Miami, FL, Indiana, Florida
2 - Arizona, Michigan State, Michigan, Gonzaga
3 - Syracuse, Kansas, New Mexico, Louisville
4 - Georgetown, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Butler
5 - Pittsburgh, Ohio State, Minnesota, Marquette
6 - Wisconsin, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, NC State
7 -  Illinois, Oklahoma, UCLA, Colorado State
8 - Missouri, San Diego State, Oregon, Colorado
9 - Wichita State, UNLV, VCU, LaSalle
10 - Creighton, North Carolina, Baylor, Iowa State
11 - Kentucky, Temple, St. Louis, St. Mary's/Ole Miss
12 - St. John's/Indiana State, Belmont, Middle Tennessee, Memphis
13 - Louisiana Tech, Akron, Bucknell, Valparaiso
14 - Valparaiso, Harvard, Stephen F Austin, Long Beach State, Davidson
15 - Stony Brook, Montana, Florida Gulf Coast, Western Illinois
16 - Niagara, Northeastern, Bryant/Norfolk State, Southern/UNC-Asheville

Quick Hits:

• Tough loss for Syracuse at Connecticut, dropping them to a 3 and making me finally give in on Gonzaga.  Ultimately, I think Gonzaga is a 3 unless they win out.
• Butler's loss does not cost them a seed line yet, but they earned themselves a trip to San Jose for the time being.
• The Mountain West continues to be a minefield for road teams, but New Mexico did their usual survival dance.  Colorado State, San Diego State and UNLV will continue to battle until the end of the season for positioning.
• What has happened to Creighton?  I had to knock them down to a 10 with an RPI now of 50.  They need to turn it around now.
• In my SEC Progress report I put Ole Miss on watch and now I need to put them on danger alert.  That resume is starting to get passed up as the losses finally accumulate for the Rebels.
• Great win for Charlotte at Butler last night.  Win Saturday at St. Louis and they will be in the Field.
• Finally, the worst news came in on Nerlens Noel of Kentucky and we will see if the Wildcats rally or fold down the stretch without their most impactful player.

Collage Basketball 2012-13 - Mountain West Progress Report

New Mexico (20-4, 7-2, RPI=3, Sag=36)
Top 25 Wins:  UNLV, Colorado State
26-50 Wins:  Connecticut, Cincinnati, Boise State
51-100 Wins:  Indiana State, Valparaiso, New Mexico State, New Mexico State, Wyoming, Air Force
Losses: South Dakota State, St. Louis, San Diego State, UNLV
Road/Neutral:  8-3
Margin:  +6.3
Bottom Line:  Sagarin's whipping boy team, the Lobos are penalized in that metric for blowing nobody out this year.  While their RPI may be a little high, they have amassed a lot of nice wins and have 5 more chances against the RPI top 72 to close the regular season.  The Mountain West has been right behind the Big 10 in Conference rating all season, so if the Lobos can pair a league championship with that high RPI, a top 3 seed is likely.

UNLV (17-6, 5-4, RPI=21, Sag=37)
Top 25 Wins: New Mexico, San Diego State
26-50 Wins: Iowa State
51-100 Wins: California, UTEP, Northern Iowa, Air Force, Wyoming
Losses: Oregon, North Carolina, New Mexico, Colorado State, Boise State, Fresno State
Road/Neutral:  4-5
Margin:  +8.9
Bottom Line:  The Runnin' Rebels uncharacteristic bad loss at Fresno dropped them a notch, but this team should be fine and will be another dangerous team seeded in the middle of the bracket.

San Diego State (16-5, 6-3, RPI=25, Sag=24)
Top 25 Wins:  Colorado State, New Mexico
26-50 Wins:  UCLA, Boise State
51-100 Wins:  Indiana State
Losses:  Syracuse, Arizona, UNLV, Wyoming, Air Force
Road/Neutral:  7-4
Margin:  +9.1
Bottom Line:  The Aztecs have 5 really good wins when put together, but could use a few more to strengthen their position with the committee.  6 of the final 7 are against the RPI top 72, so opportunity awaits, including road games this week at Colorado State and at UNLV.

Colorado State (17-4, 6-2, RPI=15, Sag=26)
Top 25 Wins:  UNLV
26-50 Wins:  Boise State
51-100 Wins:  Washington, UTEP, Air Force, Wyoming
Losses:  Colorado, Illinois-Chicago, San Diego State, New Mexico
Road/Neutral: 6-4
Margin:  +11.9
Bottom Line:  The Rams have figured out the RPI, going 9-1 vs teams rated 82-168.  Add two top 50 wins and you have a nice little package.  With 6 left against the RPI top 72, the Rams can further prove their RPI is not inflated and improve their seeding. 

Boise State (14-7, 4-5, RPI=45, Sag=78)
Top 25 Wins:  UNLV
26-50 Wins:  Creighton
51-100 Wins:  Wyoming, Wyoming
Losses:  Michigan State, Utah, New Mexico, Air Force, Nevada, Colorado State, San Diego State
Road/Neutral:  6-6
Margin:  +4.3
Bottom Line:  A serious Bubble team, Boise State needs to finish strong to state their case.  Despite the Mountain West's lofty standing as a conference, a .500 conference record would seem necessary to warrant consideration.  That would require winning at least 2 of the 5 remaining against the Top 100, which would bring their total to 6 at least give them a chance going into the Mountain West Tourney.

Wyoming (14-7, 2-7, RPI=61, Sag=85) - The Cowboys need to finish 6-1, giving them a .500 record in conference and 6 Top 100 wins.  I just don't see it happening.

Air Force (12-8, 5-4, RPI=72, Sag=106) - An outside chance if they can finish 5-2 or 6-1, but again, right now they are on fringe consideration.

College Basketball 2012-13 - PAC 12 Progress Report

Arizona (20-3, 8-3, RPI=8, Sag=15)
Top 25 Wins:  Florida, Miami, FL, Colorado, San Diego State
26-50 Wins:  Southern Miss
51-100 Wins:  UTEP, Long Beach State, Arizona State, Washington, Stanford
Losses: Oregon, UCLA, California
Road/Neutral:  9-1
Margin:  +11.9
Bottom Line:  The Wildcats seem a lock for a top 3 seed, but need to avoid more performances like the one against Cal.  The remaining schedule isn't daunting, but a PAC-12 Title would be helpful in nailing down a 2 seed.

UCLA (18-6, 8-3, RPI=40, Sag=45)
Top 25 Wins: Colorado, Arizona
26-50 Wins: Missouri
51-100 Wins: Indiana State, Long Beach State, Stanford, California, Washington
Losses: Georgetown, Cal Poly, San Diego State, Oregon, Arizona State, USC
Road/Neutral: 5-3
Margin:  +7.6
Bottom Line:  The Bruins can feel fairly safe, needing to notch just a couple more wins down the stretch to secure a berth.  5 of the final 7 are on the road, so nothing is for certain, but this could be a dangerous draw in the Field of 68.

Oregon (19-5, 8-3, RPI=42, Sag=47)
Top 25 Wins:  UNLV, Arizona
26-50 Wins:  UCLA
51-100 Wins:  Nebraska, Arizona State, Washington
Losses:  UTEP, Cincinnati, Stanford, California, Colorado
Road/Neutral:  4-4
Margin:  +10.2
Bottom Line:  A recent skid coincided with the loss of PG Dominic Artis.  His unknown status with a foot injury may factor into the seeding of the Ducks either positively or negatively depending on if he gets back before the Tourney.  The Ducks, like UCLA, are fairly safe and just need to win the games they should to be dancing this year.

Colorado (16-7, 6-5, RPI=18, Sag=46)
Top 25 Wins:  Colorado State
26-50 Wins:  Oregon
51-100 Wins:  Baylor, Murray State, Air Force, Stanford, California
Losses:  Wyoming, Kansas, Arizona, Arizona State, UCLA, Washington, Utah
Road/Neutral:  7-6
Margin:  +5.2
Bottom Line:  An RPI darling, the Buffaloes are not quite as good as that metric might say, but similar to UCLA and Oregon, they just need to take care of business and they will be in the Field.  With 5 of 7 remaining against RPI top 67 teams, the lofty RPI will likely remain barring an 0-7 collapse.

Arizona State (18-6, 7-4, RPI=67, Sag=75)
Top 25 Wins:  Colorado
26-50 Wins:  UCLA
51-100 Wins:  Arkansas, California
Losses:  Creighton, DePaul, Oregon, Arizona, Washington, Stanford
Road/Neutral:  4-3
Margin:  +6.8
Bottom Line:  The Sun Devils resume lacks meat and the dangerously low RPI make them a longshot.  Their top 3 wins are all home wins.  They do travel to Colorado and UCLA to go for season sweeps, as well as a trip to Arizona, so there are some road opportunities.  They need to capitalize on those and have some PAC-12 Tourney success to be in the Bubble discussion.

California (14-9, 6-5, RPI=59, Sag=54)
Top 25 Wins:  Arizona
26-50 Wins:  Oregon
51-100 Wins:  None
Losses:  Wisconsin, UNLV, Creighton, Harvard, UCLA, Washington, Stanford, Colorado, Arizona State
Road/Neutral:  7-5
Margin:  +2.7
Bottom Line:  The win over Arizona got them back into the discussion, but the under-achieving Bears still have a lot of work to be done.  With a 2-9 record against the Top 100, Cal needs to secure more quality wins to close the regular season and potentially make a PAC-12 Tourney final run.

Stanford (15-9, 6-5, RPI=56, Sag=44)
Top 25 Wins:  None
26-50 Wins:  Oregon
51-100 Wins:  Northern Iowa, California, Arizona State
Losses:  Belmont, Missouri, Minnesota, NC State, USC, UCLA, Washington, Colorado, Arizona
Road/Neutral:  5-7
Margin:  +5.4
Bottom Line:  Stanford and California are of similar resumes, but with Cal having a signature win and the Cardinal just having a few more overall quality wins.  So what I said about Cal applies to Stanford.  Plus the two meet in the season finale. 

Washington, USC, Washington State, Oregon State, and Utah are not under consideration at this time.

Field of 68 - Seed List, February 13, 2013

After Tuesday's Action:

1 - Duke, Miami, FL, Indiana, Florida
2 - Syracuse, Arizona, Michigan State, Michigan
3 - Gonzaga, Kansas, New Mexico, Louisville
4 - Butler, Georgetown, Kansas State, Oklahoma State
5 - Pittsburgh, Ohio State, Minnesota, Marquette
6 - Wisconsin, San Diego State, Cincinnati, Notre Dame
7 - NC State, Illinois, Oklahoma, UCLA
8 - Missouri, UNLV, Oregon, Creighton
9 - Colorado State, Wichita State, Colorado, Iowa State
10 - VCU, Kentucky, North Carolina, LaSalle
11 - Ole Miss, St. Louis, Baylor, St. Mary's/Temple
12 - St. John's/Indiana State, Belmont, Middle Tennessee, Memphis
13 - Louisiana Tech, Akron, Bucknell, Valparaiso
14 - Valparaiso, Harvard, Stephen F Austin, Long Beach State, Davidson
15 - Stony Brook, Montana, Florida Gulf Coast, Western Illinois
16 - Niagara, Northeastern, Bryant/Norfolk State, Southern/UNC-Asheville

Quick Hits:

• Michigan ran into the buzzsaw that is Sparty last night and has dropped from the #1 line.  Most of the Wolverines tough remaining games are at home now, so they could very well return to this spot down the line. 
• Their spot was assumed by Florida, who once again looked dominant over Kentucky.  Every team has had a blip, so the loss to Arkansas should not be read into any more than that.  These Gators are good.  On the Kentucky side, if Nerlens Noel is out and this team is mediocre down the stretch, will the Wildcats be NIT bound?
• The only saving grace might be the "Bubble", which really lacks many attractive options at this point.  I left Indiana State in the field due to their 4 strong victories, but that is the last slip-up they are allowed and could get passed up by another team without the bad losses that gets hot and can string a few good wins together.  Remember last year at this time, Colorado State was iffy and South Florida was off every one's radar.  And Cincinnati was trying to improve their RPI enough from 93at this point to support their quality wins (Sound familiar Virginia??).

Field of 68 - Seed List, February 12, 2013

A lot of clarity still needed after last week's action.  Looking forward to another week of the bracket shuffle.
1 - Duke, Michigan, Miami, FL, Indiana
2 - Florida, Syracuse, Arizona, Michigan State
3 - Gonzaga, Kansas, New Mexico, Louisville
4 - Butler, Georgetown, Kansas State, Oklahoma State
5 - Pittsburgh, Ohio State, Minnesota, Marquette
6 - Wisconsin, San Diego State, Cincinnati, Notre Dame
7 - NC State, Illinois, Oklahoma, UCLA
8 - Missouri, UNLV, Oregon, Creighton
9 - Colorado State, Wichita State, Colorado, Iowa State
10 - VCU, Kentucky, North Carolina, LaSalle
11 - Ole Miss, St. Louis, Indiana State, Baylor/Temple
12 - St. John's/St. Mary's, Belmont, Middle Tennessee, Memphis
13 - Louisiana Tech, Akron, Bucknell, Valparaiso
14 - Valparaiso, Harvard, Stephen F Austin, Long Beach State, Davidson
15 - Stony Brook, Montana, Florida Gulf Coast, Western Illinois
16 - Niagara, Northeastern, Bryant/Norfolk State, Southern/UNC-Asheville

College Basketball 2012-13 - WCC Progress Report

Gonzaga (21-2, 9-0, RPI=12, Sag=11)
Top 25 Wins:  Oklahoma, Kansas State
26-50 Wins:  Baylor, Oklahoma State, BYU
51-100 Wins:  West Virginia, Santa Clara, St. Mary's
Losses: Illinois, Butler
Road/Neutral:  11-1
Margin:  +16.0
Bottom Line:  Gonzaga legitimately belongs with the top teams from the traditional power conferences, but will still need to overcome the slight drag the West Coast Conference has on a teams seed.  If they win out, no easy task for any team, a #2 seed could be in the cards.  Otherwise, a 3-seed akin to their current RPI standing would seem more appropriate.

St. Mary's (19-4, 9-1, RPI=55, Sag=36)
Top 25 Wins: None
26-50 Wins: BYU
51-100 Wins: Harvard, Santa Clara
Losses: Pacific, Georgia Tech, Northern Iowa, Gonzaga
Road/Neutral: 7-4
Margin:  +13.5
Bottom Line:  The Gaels are almost guaranteed to be sweating out Selection Sunday if they don't win the WCC Tourney.  For right now, Valentine's Day has to be sweet to St. Mary's with a home win over Gonzaga.  It would be the signature win a resume devoid of top 100 wins might need.  Even so, other teams are going to have more opportunities to strengthen their resumes, so St. Mary's current standing as last team in is shaky.  Note:  St. Mary's had top 50 RPI's in both 2009 and 2011, but missed the dance each year with only 3 top 100 wins in each season.  Note 2:  Santa Clara currently sits at 99 in the RPI, so one of the Gaels current 3 is potentially going away.

BYU (17-7, 8-3, RPI=46, Sag=50)
Top 25 Wins:  None
26-50 Wins:  None
51-100 Wins:  Santa Clara, Santa Clara
Losses:  Florida State, Notre Dame, Iowa State, Baylor, St. Mary's, Gonzaga, San Diego
Road/Neutral:  7-6
Bottom Line:  Win the WCC tournament, especially if those Santa Clara wins disappear from the Top 100.  Even victories over St. Mary's and Gonzaga are probably going to leave this resume a little light.  Nice RPI though, but too many losses and not enough good wins.

NOTE:  Only teams with a top 75 RPI or Sagarin are listed

Field of 68 - Seed List, February 8, 2013

As we have hit February, I will attempt to provide frequent updates to my seed list on days where I m unable to "bracket it up".  After Tuesday night's action, here is where my seeds stand.

1 - Duke, Michigan, Miami, FL, Arizona
2 - Indiana, Kansas, Florida, Syracuse
3 - Gonzaga, New Mexico, Louisville, Michigan State
4 - Butler, Ohio State, Kansas State, Marquette
5 - Cincinnati, Georgetown, Minnesota, Oklahoma State
6 - Pittsburgh, San Diego State, Creighton, NC State
7 - Notre Dame, UCLA, Oregon, Wisconsin
8 - Missouri, Colorado State, UNLV, Iowa State
9 - North Carolina, VCU, Wichita State, Colorado
10 - Illinois, Ole Miss, Kentucky, LaSalle
11 - St. Louis, Oklahoma, Baylor, Indiana State/St. John's
12 - Temple/St. Mary's, Belmont, Middle Tennessee, Memphis
13 - Louisiana Tech, Akron, Bucknell, South Dakota State
14 - Valparaiso, Harvard, Stephen F Austin, Long Beach State
15 - Stony Brook, Montana, Davidson, Florida Gulf Coast
16 - Niagara, Northeastern, Bryant/Norfolk State, Southern/UNC-Asheville

Quick Hits:

• Another night, another switch on the top lines with Indiana losing at Illinois in a thriller.  While the top 3 lines are taking shape as a group, it looks like it will be a constant shuffling down the stretch as the hot teams try to emerge in a year without any dominant teams.
• BYU did what it couldn't do.  They lost to somebody in conference not named Gonzaga or St. Mary's.  I have replaced the Cougars with the Gaels, but with only 3 Top 100 wins, it is going to be tough for St. Mary's without beating Gonzaga at some point.
• Good wins by Colorado and Illinois gave them some breathing room after they were squandering quality non-conference seasons.  Missouri continues to slide and looks more like a 10 seed at this point.  NC State and Oregon are on similar skids as the middle of the bracket is one big jumble.

Field of 68 - Seed List, February 7, 2013

As we have hit February, I will attempt to provide frequent updates to my seed list on days where I m unable to "bracket it up".  After Tuesday night's action, here is where my seeds stand.

1 - Duke, Michigan, Indiana, Miami, FL
2 - Arizona, Kansas, Florida, Syracuse
3 - Gonzaga, New Mexico, Louisville, Michigan State
4 - Butler, Ohio State, Kansas State, Marquette
5 - Cincinnati, Georgetown, Minnesota, Oregon
6 - Oklahoma State, NC State, Pittsburgh, Missouri
7 - Creighton, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, San Diego State
8 - UCLA, Colorado State, UNLV, Iowa State
9 - North Carolina, VCU, Wichita State, Ole Miss
10 - St. Louis, Kentucky, LaSalle, Oklahoma
11 - Baylor, Colorado, Indiana State, Illinois/St. John's
12 - Temple/BYU, Belmont, Middle Tennessee, Memphis
13 - Louisiana Tech, Akron, Bucknell, North Dakota State
14 - Valparaiso, Harvard, Stephen F Austin, Long Beach State
15 - Stony Brook, Montana, Davidson, Florida Gulf Coast
16 - Niagara, Northeastern, Bryant/Norfolk State, Southern/UNC-Asheville

Quick Hits:

• I'll start with the "Bubble", where Indiana State, St. John's and Temple all had big wins last night and strengthened my Field of 68 by solidifying their shaky positioning for the moment.  BYU now currently sits as the weak link, but there is not much behind them threatening at this moment other than conference foe St. Mary's.
• What the heck was that Kansas? 
• Miami, FL is undefeated with both Reggie Johnson and Durand Scott in the line-up and now has a #1 seed to show for it.  The way this season has gone, the spot will be short-lived, but who would have ever thought Miami, FL and #1 seed would be said in concert.
• Creighton, Wichita State and UNLV have hit the skids and need to right the ship before the goodwill they built up early in the season is completely squandered.

College Basketball 2012-13 - SEC Progress Report

Florida (18-3, 8-1, RPI=5, Sag=3)
Top 25 Wins:  Marquette
26-50 Wins:  Wisconsin, Middle Tennessee, Missouri, Ole Miss
51-100 Wins:  Florida State, Air Force, Texas A&M
Losses: Arizona, Kansas State, Arkansas
Road/Neutral:  8-3
Margin:  +21.3
Bottom Line:  Florida looks like a top seed, with all 18 of their wins coming by 13 points or more, but last night's loss to Arkansas and the weak SEC are going to make that an uphill climb now. 

Missouri (16-5, 5-3, RPI=34, Sag=30)
Top 25 Wins: None
26-50 Wins: VCU, Illinois
51-100 Wins: Tennessee State, Bucknell, Stanford, Alabama
Losses: Louisville, UCLA, Ole Miss, Florida, LSU
Road/Neutral: 3-5
Margin:  +9.8
Bottom Line:  There is still some work to do, but the Tigers are a good team playing for seeding at this point.  They lack a signature win and only have Florida at home and a potential match-up with the Gators in the SEC tournament to get that.  On the plus side, they lost games without Lawrence Bowers, so if they can get on a roll now that he is back, the Committee will consider that.

Kentucky (16-6, 7-2, RPI=44, Sag=17)
Top 25 Wins:  None
26-50 Wins:  Ole Miss
51-100 Wins:  Maryland, Tennessee, Texas A&M
Losses:  Duke, Notre Dame, Baylor, Louisville, Texas A&M, Alabama
Road/Neutral: 5-4
Margin:  +13.7
Bottom Line:  Winning 6 of 7 has the Wildcats back on the right side of the Bubble, but they shouldn't get comfortable.  They still lack a signature win and only have 4 Top 100 wins total.  5 more Top 100 games remain before the SEC tournament, including two with Florida and a home game against Missouri.  An 0-3 record in those games will have Calipari sweating it a little as Selection Sunday approaches.

Ole Miss (17-4, 6-2, RPI=45, Sag=31)
Top 25 Wins:  None
26-50 Wins:  Missouri
51-100 Wins:  Rutgers, Tennessee, Arkansas, Tennessee
Losses:  Middle Tennessee, Indiana State, Kentucky, Florida
Road/Neutral:  6-3
Margin:  +13.5
Bottom Line:  The Rebels resume is highlighted by their 17-4 record, but fairly unimpressive otherwise.  Besides a trip to Missouri, the remaining schedule is soft, so the RPI is going to have a hard time climbing.  They also can't afford to lose too many more, or the RPI will take a devastating hit.  Safe for now, but this is a team worth monitoring.

Arkansas (14-8, 5-4, RPI=82, Sag=53)
Top 25 Wins:  Oklahoma, Florida
26-50 Wins:  None
51-100 Wins:  Tennessee
Losses:  Arizona State, Wisconsin, Syracuse, Michigan, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Alabama
Road/Neutral:  0-7
Margin:  +8.7
Bottom Line:  Last night's win at Florida gives them 2 quality wins.  Errmmmm, that's it though.  The Razorbacks are an example of a maddening team that can lose to South Carolina but beat Florida.  Look closer...Arkansas is 0-7 away from home, but 14-1 when sleeping in their own beds.  If they can reel off a 7-2 finish, we can talk.

Alabama (13-7, 6-2, RPI=60, Sag=56)
Top 25 Wins:  None
26-50 Wins:  Kentucky
51-100 Wins:  Villanova, South Dakota State, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Arkansas
Losses:  Cincinnati, Dayton, VCU, Mercer, Tulane, Missouri, Tennessee
Road/Neutral:  5-4
Margin:  +4.3
Bottom Line:  They lack the top wins of say Arkansas, but have 6 top 100 RPI wins to stay in the conversation.  The bad news is that only two games remain against the Top 100, so Alabama's best chance is an 8-2 or 9-1 finish and win at Ole Miss or Florida to add to the resume.  Remember, Washington was left out last year after a 14-4 season in the PAC-12 and the 2012-13 SEC is eerily similar to the 2011-12 PAC-12 in strength.

NOTE:  Only teams with a top 75 RPI or Sagarin are listed

College Basketball 2012-13 - Big Ten Progress Report

Michigan (20-2, 8-2, RPI=3, Sag=2)
Top 25 Wins:  Kansas State, NC State, Minnesota, Ohio State
26-50 Wins:  Pittsburgh, Illinois
51-100 Wins:  Western Michigan, Arkansas, West Virginia, Northwestern, Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern
Losses: Ohio State, Indiana
Road/Neutral:  7-2
Margin:  +16.5
Bottom Line:  Michigan has put themselves in great position for a #1 seed, but winning the Big Ten Title would make that a formality.  Their schedule is easier than the Hoosiers and Spartans, but 3 head-to-head games remain against those foes.  A two-game road trip at Wisconsin and Michigan State is up next.  Conquer that, and every remaining tough game is at home.

Indiana (20-2, 8-1, RPI=12, Sag=1)
Top 25 Wins: Minnesota, Michigan State, Michigan
26-50 Wins: Georgetown, North Carolina
51-100 Wins: North Dakota State, Iowa, Northwestern
Losses: Butler, Wisconsin
Road/Neutral:  6-1
Margin:  +22.8
Bottom Line:  Indiana is an interesting case of the Committee's use and faith in the RPI.  A team with an RPI of 12 does not usually warrant a spot on the first line.  Fortunately for Indiana, that RPI should improve if they continue to navigate their way to a Big 10 Title.  Road games at Ohio State, Michigan State, Minnesota and Michigan remain.  It just happens that all four of those teams currently reside within the RPI top 25.  Indiana will earn a #1 seed if they can hang on for a conference title.

Minnesota (17-5, 5-4, RPI=9, Sag=12)
Top 25 Wins:  Michigan State
26-50 Wins:  Illinois, Memphis
51-100 Wins:  Tennessee State, Richmond, Stanford, Florida State, North Dakota State, South Dakota State, Northwestern, Nebraska, Iowa
Losses:  Duke, Indiana, Michigan, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Road/Neutral:  5-4
Margin:  +11.8
Bottom Line:  A 4-game losing streak had Gopher-nation in a frenzy, but they have taken baby steps to get back on track with wins over Nebraska and Iowa.  A stretch of 6 in a row against the RPI top 100 (5 vs the Top 50) will go along way in determining the seed for Minnesota.  Barring an epic meltdown, they are just playing for seed at this point.

Michigan State (17-4, 7-2, RPI=13, Sag=14)
Top 25 Wins:  Kansas, Ohio State
26-50 Wins:  Wisconsin, Illinois
51-100 Wins:  Boise State, Nebraska, Iowa
Losses:  Connecticut, Miami, FL, Minnesota, Indiana
Road/Neutral: 5-4
Margin:  +9.1
Bottom Line:  Sparty has 8 games remaining against the RPI top 100, including two with rival Michigan.  As usual, the Izzo-led squad has some quality wins and no bad losses.  Expect Michigan State to chug along and secure a top 4 seed.

Ohio State (17-5, 7-3, RPI=17, Sag=8)
Top 25 Wins:  Michigan
26-50 Wins:  Wisconsin
51-100 Wins:  Washington, Nebraska, Iowa, Nebraska
Losses:  Duke, Kansas, Illinois, Michigan State, Michigan
Road/Neutral:  5-4
Margin:  +13.8
Bottom Line:  There is some good in the Buckeyes resume, but not a lot of great.  All 8 remaining games are against the RPI top 100, so if the Buckeyes continue to play well, their resume will be stronger by season's end.  At least a split of the two remaining games with the Hoosiers would be a good starting point.

Illinois (14-8, 2-7, RPI=48, Sag=51)
Top 25 Wins:  Butler, Gonzaga, Ohio State
26-50 Wins:  None
51-100 Wins:  Eastern Kentucky, Nebraska
Losses:  Missouri, Purdue, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Road/Neutral:  5-4
Margin:  +4.3
Bottom Line:  The Fighting Illini will be a great test for "we consider the whole body of work" theory.  They also can't continue the current Big 10 tanking, but another tough week has them staring 2-9 straight in the face.  Their final 7 games provide 5 games against the RPI 87 and lower, and for a team that just needs wins, that is the stretch they must prosper in. 

Wisconsin (15-7, 6-3, RPI=42, Sag=15)
Top 25 Wins:  Indiana, Minnesota
26-50 Wins:  Illinois, Illinois
51-100 Wins:  Arkansas, California, Nebraska
Losses:  Florida, Creighton, Virginia, Marquette, Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State
Road/Neutral:  4-5
Margin:  +11.6
Bottom Line:  The Badgers may win ugly and their resume isn't the prettiest, but they continue to do enough to stay off the Bubble and in the "middle seed" mix.  The road win at Indiana carries a good amount of weight, but they could use a couple more quality wins to take place of the soon to be 51-100 wins that are Illinois.  A 5-4 finish likely locks down a bid, 4-5 and they might need a Big 10 Tourney win.

Iowa (14-8, 3-6, RPI=92, Sag=39)
Top 25 Wins:  None
26-50 Wins:  Iowa State, Wisconsin
51-100 Wins:  Northern Iowa, Northwestern
Losses:  Wichita State, Virginia Tech, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Minnesota
Road/Neutral:  3-6
Margin:  +8.5
Bottom Line:  The Hawkeyes are not even on the Bubble at this point and need something like a 7-2 finish to be back in consideration.  The schedule sets up alright if they can cure their road woes and take care of teams like Penn State and Nebraska away from home.  An upset at Wisconsin, a team they have owned recently, would be a great start.

NOTE:  Only teams with a top 75 RPI or Sagarin are listed

Field of 68 - Seed List - February 6, 2013

As we have hit February, I will attempt to provide frequent updates to my seed list on days where I m unable to "bracket it up".  After Tuesday night's action, here is where my seeds stand.

1 - Duke, Kansas, Michigan, Indiana
2 - Arizona, Miami, FL, Florida, Syracuse
3 - Gonzaga, New Mexico, Louisville, Michigan State
4 - Butler, Cincinnati, Minnesota, Ohio State
5 - Kansas State, Georgetown, Marquette, Oregon
6 - Oklahoma State, Creighton, NC State, Pittsburgh
7 - UNLV, Missouri, Wisconsin, Notre Dame
8 - UCLA, Colorado State, San Diego State, Iowa State
9 - North Carolina, VCU, Wichita State, Ole Miss
10 - St. Louis, Kentucky, LaSalle, Oklahoma
11 - Baylor, Illinois, Colorado, BYU/Indiana State
12 - Temple/St. John's, Belmont, Middle Tennessee, Memphis
13 - Louisiana Tech, Akron, Bucknell, North Dakota State
14 - Valparaiso, Harvard, Stephen F Austin, Long Beach State
15 - Stony Brook, Montana, Davidson, Florida Gulf Coast
16 - Niagara, Northeastern, Bryant/Norfolk State, Southern/Charleston Southern

Quick Hits:

• Florida's loss leaves the Big 10 with two number one seeds.  I won't get a lot of love from Indiana fans, but right now Michigan would be ahead of them on the curve and get Indianapolis.  It was luck of the draw to play them in Bloomington first.  Beat them in Ann Arbor and we have a different story.
• Ohio State stayed on the 4-line despite the loss last night.  It was a good road showing for the eye-test fans out there.  Partly this is projection, as the Buckeyes look to end up with more top 100 wins than the next grouping of teams.  So despite one more loss than 3 of the 5's, they will have an overall stronger body of work.  If they have two more losses than any of them, they will get dropped.  Finally, that was a Flagrant 1 on Aaron Craft last night and the officials thought they were making the right call not deciding the game at that point.  Instead they looked worse when they had to swallow their whistles again on Craft's final attempt.
• I might have Oregon higher than others, but they lost their last two without guard Dominic Artis, who is expected to return soon from a foot injury.  The committee will look at this if the Ducks finish strong with Artis in the line-up.
• The back-end of the bubble is pretty soft, so I am looking for a hot team or a bid-stealer to help that out.  The four teams that I have in the play-in games have flimsy parts of their resumes.  BYU has no top 50 wins.  Indiana State has 8 losses and some bad ones.  Temple is reeling and is hanging their hat on a win vs Syracuse.  St. John's has good wins, nothing great.  Lots of basketball to be played though.

College Basketball 2012-13 - Missouri Valley Progress Report

Keep in mind, a year ago a 28-5 Creighton with a 24 RPI got seeded 8th. 

Creighton (20-3, 9-2, RPI=28, Sag=15)
Top 25 Wins:  None
26-50 Wins:  Wisconsin
51-100 Wins:  Arizona State, St. Joseph's, Nebraska, Akron, California, Indiana State, Northern Iowa
Losses:  Boise State, Wichita State, Drake
Road/Neutral:  7-2
Bottom Line:  The Missouri Valley Champion will likely be a 5 or a 6 seed, depending on how strong they finish.  Right now, Creighton has the upper-hand and hosts Wichita State in the regular-season finale.

Wichita State (19-4, 8-3, RPI=26, Sag=42)
Top 25 Wins:  Creighton
26-50 Wins: VCU, Southern Miss
51-100 Wins: Iowa, Air Force, Northern Iowa
Losses: Tennessee, Evansville, Indiana State, Northern Iowa
Road/Neutral:  7-3
Bottom Line:  A bad week saw the Shockers fall out of first place in the Missouri Valley and to the middle of the bracket.  They still have the opportunity to win at Creighton and sweep the season series from the Blue Jays.

Indiana State (13-8, 7-4, RPI=53, Sag=89)
Top 25 Wins:  Miami, FL
26-50 Wins:  Ole Miss, Wichita State
51-100 Wins:  Northern Iowa, Northern Iowa
Losses:  UCLA, New Mexico, Morehead State, San Diego State, Creighton, Southern Illinois, Illinois State, Drake
Road/Neutral:  6-7
Bottom Line:  This is going to be an interesting team come Selection Sunday if they continue down their current path.  Not many bubble teams will be able to compare with their top 3 wins, but some of their losses are head-scratchers as well.  They have both Creighton and Wichita State remaining at home, so the opportunity exists for a 4th nice win.  They will also likely lose to someone they should not.  Teams with double-digit losses from non-major conferences typically go to the NIT.  The Sycamores need to beat either the Shockers or Blue Jays to try and offset all these losses.

NOTE:  Only teams with a top 75 RPI or Sagarin are listed

College Basketball 2012-13 - Atlantic 10 Progress Report

Butler (16-4, 4-2, RPI=13, Sag=33)
Top 25 Wins:  Marquette, Indiana, Gonzaga
26-50 Wins:  North Carolina, Temple
51-100 Wins:  Northwestern, St. Joseph's, Richmond
Losses: Xavier, Illinois, LaSalle, St. Louis
Road/Neutral:  7-4
Bottom Line:  Barring an unforeseen collapse, Butler is playing for seed right now.  Not many teams can match those Top 25 wins.

VCU (17-5, 5-2, RPI=43, Sag=31)
Top 25 Wins: Belmont
26-50 Wins: Memphis
51-100 Wins: Alabama, Lehigh, St. Joseph's
Losses: Wichita State, Duke, Missouri, Richmond, LaSalle
Road/Neutral: 7-3
Bottom Line:  VCU's recent struggles have them closer to the bubble than lock status.  7 games remain against the RPI top 100, including a showdown with Butler.  4 more wins getting them to 9-7 in conference should lock up a bid.

Temple (14-6, 3-3, RPI=50, Sag=54)
Top 25 Wins:  Syracuse
26-50 Wins:  None
51-100 Wins:  Villanova, St. Louis, Richmond
Losses:  Duke, Canisius, Kansas, Xavier, St. Bonaventure, Butler
Road/Neutral:  5-4
Bottom Line:  Temple also has had recent struggles placing them squarely on the bubble.  The win over Syracuse only carries weight if the rest of the resume stacks up.  6 games remain against the RPI top 100.  2 wins in those are a must and quite possibly 3 would be necessary.  If I was Temple, 10-6 in conference would be my target line.

St. Louis (15-5, 4-2, RPI=56, Sag=40)
Top 25 Wins:  New Mexico, Butler
26-50 Wins:  Massachusetts
51-100 Wins:  Texas A&M, Valparaiso
Losses:  Santa Clara, Kansas, Washington, Temple, Rhode Island
Road/Neutral: 3-3
Bottom Line:  HUGE win for St. Louis last night, giving them two impressive victories on their resume.  7 of the final 8 are against the RPI top 100 and the only one that is not is against surging George Washington.  The Billikens RPI is back at a tolerable level and they would be back in my Field of 68 if I produced a bracket today.  A 6-4 finish with 3 more top 100 wins would likely sew up a bid.

LaSalle (14-6, 4-3, RPI=31, Sag=59)
Top 25 Wins:  Butler
26-50 Wins:  VCU
51-100 Wins:  Villanova, Iona, Richmond
Losses:  Central Connecticut, Bucknell, Miami, FL, Charlotte, Xavier, Massachusetts
Road/Neutral:  5-4
Bottom Line:  Currently, the good RPI and 2 big wins have them in the Field of 68.  Unlike the teams above, LaSalle only has 3 of their final 9 against RPI top 100 teams, meaning the RPI is likely to fall and will take a big hit if they lose to anyone other than George Washington outside the top 100.  The Explorers might need to finish 7-2 or the A-10 Tourney, which should be wild anyway, could loom very important for them.

Charlotte (16-4, 4-2, RPI=62, Sag=110)
Top 25 Wins:  None
26-50 Wins:  LaSalle
51-100 Wins:  Xavier
Losses:  Miami FL, Florida State, Richmond, George Washington
Road/Neutral:  6-3
Bottom Line:  Gaudy record, lack of good wins. Next 6 games against the RPI Top 56.  If they can go 4-2 in those games, we'll talk.

Massachusetts (14-5, 4-2, RPI=48, Sag=101)
Top 25 Wins:  None
26-50 Wins:  LaSalle
51-100 Wins:  Harvard, Ohio, Richmond
Losses:  NC State, Tennessee, Miami, FL, St. Louis, George Washington
Road/Neutral:  8-3
Bottom Line:  See Charlotte as far as record and wins.  Also has 6 more cracks at the RPI top 100, starting with a showdown against Charlotte on Saturday.  Despite the RPI, a long shot at this point.

St. Joseph's (12-7, 3-3, RPI=90, Sag=58)
Top 25 Wins: None
26-50 Wins: Notre Dame
51-100 Wins: Harvard, Iona, Xavier
Losses: Florida State, Creighton, Villanova, Fairfield, Butler, VCU, St. Bonaventure
Road/Neutral: 6-4
Bottom Line:  The RPI needs to go from 90 to 55, and that might take an 8-2 finish.

Xavier (12-8, 5-2, RPI=70, Sag=78)
Top 25 Wins:  Butler
26-50 Wins:  LaSalle, Temple
51-100 Wins:  None
Losses:  Pacific, Vanderbilt, Cincinnati, Wofford, Tennessee, Wake Forest, Charlotte, St. Joseph's
Road/Neutral:  4-6
Bottom Line:  The quality wins are there, but so are the typical bad losses.  Xavier is tied for the A-10 lead, but is a long shot for a bid as we stand today.  The Good News:  The final 5 games are against the RPI top 56.  The Bad News:  They can't trip up in the next 5 against lesser opponents, something they can't seem to avoid.  An 8-2 finish and 12-4 in the A-10 should at least put them on the bubble.

NOTE:  Only teams with a top 75 RPI or Sagarin are listed