Tuesday, November 1, 2011

College Football Rewind - Week 9

Last week, I was Clemson's kiss of death.  This week, its Oklahoma State.  I have had the Cowboys beating the Sooners in the season finale from day 1 and now I no longer see a trip up before that date for Oklahoma State.  I also had Alabama in my pre-season National Title Game, so I am sticking with them over LSU, although LSU might be the slightly more talented of the two.

This week I look at Conference Races and Bowl Bubble Teams.

Overall Pick Record:  398-132, 75% (36-18 Last Week)

Conference            Week      Overall     Non-Conf     BCS Non-Conf
ACC                         6-6          59-41           29-11                 6-7
Big East                     3-3          37-25           25-13                 4-9
Big 12                       5-5          51-27           27-3                   6-3
Big 10                       6-6          60-39           34-13                 6-5
PAC-12                    6-6          53-44           22-13                 6-8
SEC                          5-5          62-35           31-4                   6-2
C-USA                     6-6          48-51           21-24                 5-16
MWC                       4-3          31-29           20-18                 2-7
MAC                        4-4          50-59           21-30                 3-26
WAC                        3-3          26-37           12-23                 2-12
Sun Belt                    4-4          31-40           11-20                 2-15
Independent              2-2          16-17           15-16                 5-7

Conference Race:  The ACC Atlantic will come down to the November 12th game with Wake Forest at Clemson, assuming Wake Forest takes care of lowly Maryland the next week.  The ACC Coastal will likely be decided two days earlier on November 10th with Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech.  If the home teams win, Clemson would get another shot at Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship Game.
Bowl Bubble Teams:  NC State's (2 more wins) route to bowl-eligibility is a win at Boston College plus a home win vs either North Carolina, or more likely, Maryland.  Miami (2 more wins) has very winnable home games vs Duke and Boston College, plus a road game at South Florida.  Both project to be bowl-eligible.
Bowl Changes: Virginia back in, Georgia Tech moves up.  My Current Bowl Order:  Clemson, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Miami, Virginia, Wake Forest, NC State.
My record: 47-23
This Week:  Florida State over Boston College, Virginia over Maryland, North Carolina over North Carolina State, Miami(FL) over Duke, Notre Dame over Wake Forest

Big East
Conference Race:  While many scenarios can still play out, the November 12th game with West Virginia at Cincinnati appears like it will decide the Big East Champion.
Bowl Bubble Teams:  South Florida (2 more wins) has a key road game at Syracuse, plus home dates vs Louisville and Miami(FL) as their best bets to bowl-eligibility.  Syracuse (1 more win) needs to take care of Connecticut this week, or the South Florida game might become a bowl-elimination game.  Pittsburgh (2 more wins) has to deal with a Ray Graham injury, the two Big East front-runners, a home game vs Syracuse and a potential bowl-elimination game at Louisville.  Louisville (2 more wins) only has Pittsburgh at home, with road tilts at Connecticut and South Florida .
Bowl Changes:  My current Bowl Order:  Cincinnati, West Virginia, Rutgers, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, South Florida.
My Record: 33-17
This Week:  Cincinnati over Pittsburgh, Rutgers over South Florida, West Virginia over Louisville, Syracuse over Connecticut

Big 12
Conference Race:  Anything can happen in a deep, defensively-challenged conference.  The Big 12 race in all likelihood will come down to December 3rd when Oklahoma visits Oklahoma State.
Bowl Bubble Teams:  Texas Tech (one more win) likely needs a road win at Texas or Missouri or a neutral field win vs Baylor.  Missouri (two more wins) has a home game vs Kansas, as well as visits from Texas and Texas Tech.  Baylor (two more wins) plays at Kansas, and then must win one out of their other four, with home games vs Missouri and Texas and a neutral site game with Texas Tech.  Iowa State (2 more wins) has a home game with Kansas to get to 5, but must beat Oklahoma, Oklahoma State or Kansas State to get 6 (ouch).
Bowl Changes: My current Bowl Order:  Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Missouri, Texas Tech, Baylor.
My Record: 42-12
This Week:  Texas over Texas Tech, Iowas State over Kansas, Oklahoma over Texas A&M, Missouri over Baylor, Oklahoma State over Kansas State

Big Ten
Conference Race:  This is the one conference that is clear as mud, in both divisions.  In the Legends Division, the November 19th tilt between Nebraska and Michigan in Ann Arbor looms as the key game.  Michigan State will be Wolverine fans that day as they can make the title game by winning out and Nebraska losing once.  In the Leaders division, Penn State has a two-game lead, but hosts Nebraska before playing at both Ohio State and Wisconsin.  The November 26th game at Wisconsin will likely determine the Leaders division, with Ohio State still being a player if they can win out.
Bowl Bubble Teams:  Purdue (2 more wins) finishes at Indiana, and needs to beat either Iowa or Ohio State at home for the Hoosier game to have meaning.  Iowa (one more win) would not be here if they beat lowly Minnesota, but now must beat either Michigan school at home or Purdue or Nebraska on the road.  The Iowa at Purdue game may be a bowl-elimination game.
Bowl Changes: Current Bowl Order:  Nebraska, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Michigan, Penn State, Ohio State, Illinois, Iowa, Purdue.
My Record: 55-18
This Week:  Michigan State over Minnesota, Ohio State over Indiana, Michigan over Iowa, Nebraska over Northwestern, Wisconsin over Purdue

Conference Race:  The PAC-12 North showdown between Oregon and Stanford in Palo Alto November 12th will likely determine Arizona State's opponent in the inaugural PAC-12 Championship Game.
Bowl Bubble Teams:  Utah (2 more wins) has home games vs UCLA and Colorado, plus winnable road games at Arizona and Washington State.  California (2 more wins) has home games vs Washington State and Oregon State that are likely must-wins for bowl-eligibility.  UCLA (two more wins) needs to take care of Colorado at home and upset Arizona State (home), Utah (road) or USC (road).
Bowl Changes:  Current Bowl Order:  Oregon, Stanford, Arizona State, Washington, Utah, California.
My Record: 50-16
This Week: USC over Colorado, Stanford over Oregon State, California over Washington State, Arizona over Utah, Arizona State over UCLA, Oregon over Washington

Conference Race:  You may have heard that Alabama and LSU play on Saturday.  That's this Saturday at 7 PM CST if you had not heard.  You may also not be aware that there is an SEC East.  Georgia has home games with Auburn and Kentucky to finish with one conference loss.  South Carolina would win the tie-breaker with Georgia, but must win at Arkansas or home vs Florida to finish at one loss.
Bowl Bubble Teams:  Mississippi State (2 more wins) has home games vs Tennessee-Martin and Ole Miss to get to bowl-eligibility.  Florida (2 more wins) has home games with Vanderbilt and Furman, or will need to beat South Carolina or Florida State.  Vanderbilt (2 more wins) has a home game vs Kentucky, plus must win at Tennessee, Florida or Wake Forest.  Tennessee (3 more wins) has Middle Tennessee this week to get to 4.  They then must likely win vs Vandy and at Kentucky to get to 6.
Bowl Changes: Tennessee out.  Current Bowl Order:  Alabama, LSU, Arkansas, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, Auburn, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt.
My Record: 54-12
This Week:  Florida over Vanderbilt, Georgia over New Mexico State, Ole Miss over Kentucky, Tennessee over Middle Tennessee, Arkansas over South Carolina, Mississippi State over Tennessee-Martin, Alabama over LSU

Conference USA
Conference Race:  Southern Miss has established themselves as the favorite in the East, and all but lock-up a spot in the C-USA Championship Game by winning at East Carolina this week and vs Central Florida next week.  The West is shaping up as a season finale showdown on November 25th when Houston visits Tulsa.
Bowl Bubble Teams:  Central Florida (2 more wins) is 4-0 at home, and has Tulsa and UTEP visiting in the final 4 weeks.  They are 0-4 away from home and may need to win at East Carolina to qualify for a bowl.  East Carolina (2 more wins) has their tougher games at home, with Southern Miss and UCF.  Trips to UTEP and Marshall, two other Bowl Bubble Squads, might be crucial.  Marshall (2 more wins) needs a road win at Memphis to set-up a Bowl Showdown with East Carolina at home in their finale.  The next two weeks are big for UTEP (2 more wins) with a road game at Rice and then ECU at home.  If they only garner a split, the finale against UCF could be another Bowl Showdown.
Bowl Changes:  Current Bowl Order:  Tulsa, Houston, Southern Mississippi, SMU, UTEP, Marshall, East Carolina.
My Record: 59-13
This Week:  Tulsa over Central Florida, SMU over Tulane, UTEP over Rice, Southern Miss over East Carolina, Houston over UAB

Mountain West
Conference Race:  The November 12th showdown between TCU and Boise State on the blue turf will decide the Mountain West.
Bowl Bubble Teams:  Air Force, San Diego State and Wyoming should all easily get the requisite wins necessary for bowl-eligibility.
Bowl Changes:  Current Bowl Order:  Boise State, TCU, San Diego State, Air Force, Wyoming
My Record: 38-11
This Week: TCU over Wyoming, Air Force over Army, San Diego State over New Mexico, Boise State over UNLV

Conference Race:  It is showdown week in the MAC, as Northern Illinois visits Toledo for front-runner status in the West and Temple visits Ohio for the same status in the East.  Miami(OH) is on the outside looking in, but can change things with a road sweep of Temple and Ohio.
Bowl Bubble Teams:  With only 3 guaranteed spots, the MAC will fill their quota.  They should also qualify at least 3 other teams for any unfilled spots.
Bowl Changes:  Current Bowl Order:  Toledo, Northern Illinois, Eastern Michigan, Temple, Ohio.  Western Michigan (alternate).
My Record: 60-20
This Week:  Toledo over Northern Illinois, Ohio over Temple, Miami(OH) over Akron, Kent State over Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan over Ball State

Conference Race:  Nevada hosts Hawaii on November 12th to likely decide the WAC.
Bowl Bubble Teams:  Louisiana Tech and San Jose State have the best shot at a third WAC bid, but both must beat Fresno State to have the opportunity. 
Bowl Changes:  Current Bowl Order:  Nevada, Hawaii, Louisiana Tech.
My Record: 35-14
This week:  Louisiana Tech over Fresno State, San Jose State over Idaho, Georgia over New Mexico State, Hawaii over Utah State

Sun Belt
Conference Race:  Arkansas State hosts Louisiana-Lafayette on November 12th to decide the Sun Belt.
Bowl Bubble Teams:  With only 2 guaranteed spots, the Sun Belt will fill their quota.  An additional  2 teams should be available for any unfilled openings.
Bowl Changes:  Current Bowl Order:  Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette.  Florida International and Western Kentucky (alternates).
My Record: 38-13
This Week:  LA-Lafayette over LA-Monroe, Navy over Troy, Western Kentucky over Florida International, Arkansas State over Florida Atlantic, Tennessee over Middle Tennessee

Bowl Changes:  Notre Dame and BYU all remain projected bowl-eligible.
My Record: 24-8
This Week: Air Force over Army, Navy over Troy, Notre Dame over Wake Forest

Updated Bowl Predictions
National Championship Game:  Oklahoma State vs Alabama
Rose:  Nebraska vs Oregon
Sugar:  Boise State vs LSU
Fiesta:  Oklahoma vs Stanford
Orange:  Cincinnati vs Clemson
Capitol One:  Arkansas vs Michigan
Gator:  Florida vs Michigan State
Cotton:  Texas vs Auburn
Alamo: Kansas State vs Arizona State
Outback:  Wisconsin vs Georgia
Chick Fil-A:  Virginia Tech vs South Carolina
Sun:  Georgia Tech vs Utah
Holiday:  Missouri vs Washington
Champs:  Notre Dame vs Florida State
Liberty:  Vanderbilt vs Tulsa
Belk:  North Carolina vs West Virginia
Independence:  Virginia vs Air Force
Music City:  Miami(FL) vs Mississippi State
Pinstripe:  Rutgers vs Texas Tech
Kraft Fight Hunger:  Louisville vs North Carolina State
Meineke Car Care:  Ohio State vs Baylor
Insight:  Texas A&M vs Penn State
Ticket City:  Illinois vs SMU
Little Caesars:  Iowa vs Northern Illinois
Humanitarian: Eastern Michigan vs Louisiana Tech
Hawaii:  Hawaii vs Marshall
Beef O'Bradys:  South Florida vs Houston
Armed Forces:  BYU vs Southern Miss
Las Vegas:  California vs TCU
Poinsettia:  San Diego State vs Nevada
GoDaddy.com:  Toledo vs Louisiana-Lafayette
New Orleans:  Arkansas State vs UTEP
BBVA Compass:  Syracuse vs Florida International
New Mexico:  Wyoming vs Purdue
Military:  Wake Forest vs East Carolina

No comments:

Post a Comment

Let me know your feedback...