Wednesday, November 9, 2011

College Football Rewind - Week 10

Overall Pick Record:  436-147, 75% (38-15 Last Week)

Conference Race:  The ACC Atlantic will come down to the November 12th game with Wake Forest at Clemson, assuming Wake Forest takes care of lowly Maryland the next week.  The ACC Coastal will likely be decided two days earlier on November 10th with Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech.  If the home teams win, Clemson would get another shot at Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship Game.
Bowl Bubble Teams:  NC State's (2 more wins due to two FCS wins) route to bowl-eligibility is a win at Boston College plus a home win vs Maryland.  Miami (1 more win) has a very winnable home game vs Boston College, plus a road game at South Florida.  Both project to be bowl-eligible.
Bowl Changes: My Current Bowl Order:  Clemson, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Virginia, North Carolina, NC State, Wake Forest.
My record: 51-24, 68%
This Week:  Virginia Tech over Georgia Tech, Clemson over Wake Forest, NC State over Boston College, Virginia over Duke, Florida State over Miami(FL), Notre Dame over Maryland

Big East
Conference Race:  Cincinnati has a one game lead over Louisville, who they have already defeated.  The Bearcats host West Virginia and go to Rutgers the next two weeks.  A split of those games will likely send them to the BCS.
Bowl Bubble Teams:  South Florida (2 more wins) has a key road game at Syracuse, plus home dates vs Louisville and Miami(FL) as their best bets to bowl-eligibility.  Syracuse (1 more win) has South Florida at home this week, otherwise they must win vs Cincinnati or at Pittsburgh.  Pittsburgh (2 more wins) needs to win at either Louisville or West Virginia, plus in their home finale vs Syracuse for bowl-eligibility.  Louisville (1 more win) has Pittsburgh at home and road tilts at Connecticut and South Florida.  Connecticut (2 more wins) hosts Louisville and Rutgers before finishing at Cincinnati.
Bowl Changes:  My current Bowl Order:  Cincinnati, West Virginia, Rutgers, Louisville, South Florida.
My Record: 35-19, 65%
This Week:  South Florida over Syracuse, Louisville over Pittsburgh, West Virginia over Cincinnati, Rutgers over Army

Big 12
Conference Race:  Anything can happen in a deep, defensively-challenged conference.  The Big 12 race in all likelihood will come down to December 3rd when Oklahoma visits Oklahoma State.
Bowl Bubble Teams:  Texas Tech (one more win) needs a road win at Texas or Missouri or a neutral field win vs Baylor.  Missouri (two more wins) has a home game vs Kansas, as well as visits from Texas and Texas Tech.  Iowa State (1 more win) must beat Oklahoma, Oklahoma State or Kansas State to get 6 (ouch).
Bowl Changes: My current Bowl Order:  Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Baylor, Missouri, Texas Tech.
My Record: 46-13, 78%
This Week:  Missouri over Texas, Oklahoma State over Texas Tech, Baylor over Kansas, Kansas State over Texas A&M

Big Ten
Conference Race:  This is the one conference that is clear as mud, in both divisions.  In the Legends Division, this weeks Michigan State at Iowa and the November 19th tilt between Nebraska and Michigan in Ann Arbor loom as the first key games.  In the Leaders division, Penn State has a two-game lead, but hosts Nebraska before playing at both Ohio State and Wisconsin.  The November 26th game at Wisconsin will likely determine the Leaders division, with Ohio State still being a player if they can win out.
Bowl Bubble Teams:  Purdue (2 more wins) finishes at Indiana, and needs to beat either Iowa or Ohio State at home for the Hoosier game to have meaning.  Northwestern (2 more wins) has home games with Rice and Minnesota the next two weeks to gain bowl-eligibility.
Bowl Changes: Purdue out, Northwestern in.  Current Bowl Order:  Michigan State, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa, Illinois, Northwestern.
My Record: 58-20, 74%
This Week:  Northwestern over Rice, Nebraska over Penn State, Iowa over Michigan State, Ohio State over Purdue, Wisconsin over Minnesota, Michigan over Illinois

Conference Race:  The PAC-12 North showdown between Oregon and Stanford in Palo Alto on Saturday will likely determine Arizona State's opponent in the inaugural PAC-12 Championship Game.
Bowl Bubble Teams:  Utah (1 more win) has home games vs UCLA and Colorado, plus a winnable road game at Washington State.  California (1 more win) has a home game vs Oregon State that is likely a must-win for bowl-eligibility.  UCLA (one more win) needs to take care of Colorado at home or upset Utah or USC on the road.
Bowl Changes:  UCLA in.  Current Bowl Order:  Oregon, Stanford, Arizona State, Washington, Utah, UCLA, California.
My Record: 54-18, 75%
This Week:  Arizona over Colorado, USC over Washington, California over Oregon State, Utah over UCLA, Oregon over Stanford, Arizona State over Washington State

Conference Race:  LSU wins the SEC West with a win at home vs Arkansas November 25th (assuming they beat Ole Miss).  Georgia has home games with Auburn and Kentucky to finish with one conference loss and the SEC Championship. 
Bowl Bubble Teams:  Mississippi State (1 more win) has a home game vs Ole Miss to get to bowl-eligibility.  Florida (1 more win) should get there with a victory over Furman.  Vanderbilt (2 more wins) has a home game vs Kentucky, plus must win at Tennessee or Wake Forest.  Tennessee (2 more wins) has to win vs Vandy and at Kentucky to get to 6.  Kentucky (2 more wins) can steal bowl-eligibility by winning at Vandy and at home vs Tennessee.
Bowl Changes: Tennessee out.  Current Bowl Order:  LSU, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, South Carolina, Auburn, Florida, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt.
My Record: 59-14, 81%
This Week:  South Carolina over Florida, Vanderbilt over Kentucky, Georgia over Auburn, Arkansas over Tennessee, LSU over Western Kentucky, Louisiana Tech over Ole Miss, Alabama over Mississippi State

Conference USA
Conference Race:  Southern Miss has all but locked-up a spot in the C-USA Championship Game if they win vs Central Florida this week.  The West is shaping up as a season finale showdown on November 25th when Houston visits Tulsa.
Bowl Bubble Teams:  Central Florida (2 more wins) is 4-1 at home, and has UTEP visiting, while they are 0-4 away from home and likely need to win at East Carolina to qualify for a bowl.  East Carolina (2 more wins) has one game remaining at home with UCF and two crucial trips to UTEP and Marshall, two other Bowl Bubble Squads.  Marshall (2 more wins) needs a road win at Memphis to set-up a Bowl Showdown with East Carolina at home in their finale.  UTEP (2 more wins) has ECU at home and a showdown in the finale at UCF.
Bowl Changes:  Current Bowl Order:  Tulsa, Houston, Southern Mississippi, SMU, Marshall, East Carolina.
My Record: 63-14, 82%
This Week:  Houston over Tulane, Northwestern over Rice, Tulsa over Marshall, SMU over Navy, Memphis over UAB, Southern Miss over Central Florida, East Carolina over UTEP

Mountain West
Conference Race:  Saturday's showdown between TCU and Boise State on the blue turf will decide the Mountain West.
Bowl Bubble Teams:  Air Force, San Diego State and Wyoming should all easily get the one win necessary for bowl-eligibility.
Bowl Changes:  Current Bowl Order:  Boise State, TCU, San Diego State, Air Force, Wyoming
My Record: 42-11, 79%
This Week: Air Force over Wyoming, Boise State over TCU, San Diego State over Colorado State, UNLV over New Mexico

Conference Race:  Northern Illinois controls the MAC West, while Ohio and Miami(OH) meet in the season finale to potentially decide the MAC East.
Bowl Bubble Teams:  With only 3 guaranteed spots, the MAC will fill their quota.  They should also qualify at least 4 other teams for any unfilled spots.
Bowl Changes:  Current Bowl Order:  Northern Illinois, Toledo, Ohio.  Temple, Eastern Michigan, Ball State and Western Michigan (alternates).
My Record: 63-22, 74%
This Week:  Northern Illinois over Bowling Green, Toledo over Western Michigan, Miami(OH) over Temple, Ohio over Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan over Buffalo, Kent State over Akron

Conference Race:  Nevada hosts Louisiana Tech on November 19th to likely decide the WAC.
Bowl Bubble Teams:  Hawaii (2 more wins) has home games with Fresno State, Tulane and BYU and appears squarely on the bubble.  Utah State (3 more wins) needs to beat San Jose State at home and then Idaho and New Mexico State on the road. 
Bowl Changes:  Current Bowl Order:  Nevada, Louisiana Tech, Hawaii, Utah State.
My Record: 37-16, 70%
This week:  Utah State over San Jose State, Louisiana Tech over Ole Miss, Fresno State over New Mexico State, BYU over Idaho, Nevada over Hawaii

Sun Belt
Conference Race:  Arkansas State hosts Louisiana-Lafayette on Saturday to decide the Sun Belt.
Bowl Bubble Teams:  With only 2 guaranteed spots, the Sun Belt will fill their quota.  An additional  2 teams should be available for any unfilled openings.
Bowl Changes:  Current Bowl Order:  Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette.  Florida International and Western Kentucky (alternates).
My Record: 43-13, 77%
This Week:  Troy over North Texas, Arkansas State over LA-Lafayette, LA-Monroe over Middle Tennessee, Florida International over Florida Atlantic, LSU over Western Kentucky

Bowl Changes:  Notre Dame and BYU all remain projected bowl-eligible.
My Record: 27-8, 77%
This Week: Rutgers over Army, SMU over Navy, BYU over Idaho, Notre Dame over Maryland

Updated Bowl Predictions
National Championship Game:  Oklahoma State vs LSU
Rose:  Wisconsin vs Oregon
Sugar:  Boise State vs Alabama
Fiesta:  Oklahoma vs Stanford
Orange:  Cincinnati vs Clemson
Capitol One:  Arkansas vs Nebraska
Gator:  Florida vs Michigan State
Cotton:  Texas vs Auburn
Alamo: Kansas State vs Arizona State
Outback:  Michigan vs Georgia
Chick Fil-A:  Virginia Tech vs South Carolina
Sun:  Georgia Tech vs Utah
Holiday:  Baylor vs Washington
Champs:  Notre Dame vs Florida State
Liberty:  Vanderbilt vs Tulsa
Belk:  Virginia vs West Virginia
Independence:  North Carolina State vs Air Force
Music City:  Miami(FL) vs Mississippi State
Pinstripe:  Rutgers vs Texas Tech
Kraft Fight Hunger:  California vs Utah State
Meineke Car Care:  Penn State vs Missouri
Insight:  Texas A&M vs Ohio State
Ticket City:  Iowa vs SMU
Little Caesars:  Illinois vs Northern Illinois
Humanitarian: Ohio vs Louisiana Tech
Hawaii:  Hawaii vs Marshall
Beef O'Bradys:  Louisville vs Houston
Armed Forces:  BYU vs Southern Miss
Las Vegas:  UCLA vs TCU
Poinsettia:  San Diego State vs Nevada  Toledo vs Louisiana-Lafayette
New Orleans:  Arkansas State vs East Carolina
BBVA Compass:  South Florida vs Florida International
New Mexico:  Wyoming vs Wake Forest
Military:  North Carolina vs Northwestern

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