College Football Week 10 - Jabesblog Picks

Season Record: 185-149-4 (ATS) 257-81 (Straight-Up)
Last Week: 25-26-2 (ATS)  40-13 (Straight-Up)

I apologize for my Week 9 performance.  A lot of close losses, but that is no excuse.  Just for that my Week 10 Picks will all be free.

WEEK 10 PICKS
Cincinnati (-2)  27, Memphis 21  (W)
I am shedding the Bearcats road struggles and going with the better team.
Trend:  Cincinnati is 0-3 ATS on the road this season
*Houston (-17.5) 44, South Florida 10  (L)
Houston is +20 in turnover margin this season, which gives USF little chance on the road
Trends:  Houston is 7-0 ATS this season and 10-2 ATS the last 3 seasons in games played on turf.
Rice (+4.5) 24, North Texas 20  (L)
Another toss-up game in my mind, but I think Rice is starting to roll
Trend:  North Texas is 2-6 ATS the last 3 years against a team with a winning record
ULM (+3) 34, Troy 31  (W)
Trends:  ULM is 7-0 ATS since 1993 as a road underdog of 3 points or less.  Troy is 4-10 ATS the last 3 seasons as a favorite.
Arizona State 38, Washington State (+11.5) 34  (L)
Trends:  Arizona State is 1-5 ATS the last 3 seasons in games played on turf.  WSU is 7-2 since 1993 as a home underdog of 10.5 to 14 points.
Oregon State (-3) 24, USC 17  (L)
Trends:  USC is 1-5 ATS the last 3 seasons in games played on turf.  The Beavers are 6-2 ATS the past 3 years after a conference loss.
Clemson (-18) 41, Virginia 20  (W)
I still believe in Clemson, even in another road spot
Trends:  Clemson is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. 
*Virginia Tech (-4) 24, Boston College 10  (L)
I will take the shift in points the Duke loss had on this game
Trends:  The Hokies are 3-7 ATS the past 3 years as a road favorite
Toledo 45, Eastern Michigan (+30.5) 21  (L)
Last year Toledo won by 5, 2 years ago it was by 38, but the Rockets offense was more explosive in 2011
Trend:  Eastern Michigan is 3-3 ATS as a road underdog the past 3 seasons of more than 21.5 points
*Northern Illinois (-25.5) 51, Massachusetts 17  (W)
Classic game of MAC elite vs MAC 2nd Class
Trends:  UMass is 5-0 ATS all-time as an underdog of 21.5 to 31 points.  NIU is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 road games.
Kent State (+1.5) 26, Akron 21  (L)
Trends:  Kent State is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games, Akron is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games
Rutgers 28, Temple (+12.5) 20  (W)
Who would think Temple has the more stable quarterback situation?
Trends:  Temple is 5-1 ATS as an underdog in 2013.  Rutgers is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 overall.
Penn State (-11) 38, Illinois 20  (L)
Illinois is being outscored 39-19 in the road, Penn State is outscoring opponents 38-20 at home
Trends:  Illinois is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 against teams with winning records.  Penn State is 4-1 ATS the last 3 seasons after a conference loss
*Georgia Tech (-10.5) 42, Pittsburgh 28  (W)
Trends:  The Yellow Jackets are 8-2-1 ATS in conference games
Syracuse (-4.5) 34, Wake Forest 21  (W)
After some thought, I am guessing Wake Forest will be out of gas after the Miami, FL heartbreak
Trends:  Syracuse is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 at home.
Western Kentucky 38, Georgia State (+18.5) 22  (W)
Trend:  The Hilltoppers are 0-4 since 1993 when favored by between 10.5 and 21 points
Missouri (-10) 41, Tennessee 17  (W)
Trends:  Missouri is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 after a conference loss.  The Vols are 3-8 ATS the last 3 season on the road.
*Kansas State (-17) 48, Iowa State 21  (W)
Trends:  Kansas State is 5-2 ATS the past 3 seasons when favored by between 10.5 and 21.  Conversely, Iowas State is 2-5 ATS as an underdog between those same numbers.
Marshall (-31.5) 55, Southern Miss 14  (W)
Trends:  Southern Miss is 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games on turf
Texas A&M 59, UTEP (+47.5) 14  (L)
I really want to give the points, but the UTEP QB change provides an additional unknown.  Crazy if you bet this one.
Trends:  UTEP is 0-5 ATS against SEC opponents, Texas A&M is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against C-USA
*Middle Tennessee (-3.5) 38, UAB 27  (L)
Trends:  MTSU is 5-0 as a road favorite the past 3 seasons.
UTSA (+3.5) 30, Tulsa 27  (W)
The line is pretty fair, but I don't love Tulsa this year
Trends:  UTSA is 7-2 ATS the past 3 seasons on the road
Air Force (PK) 28, Army 21  (W)
Trends:  Army is 1-12 ATS the past 3 seasons on the road.  Air Force is 3-15 ATS the past 3 seasons at home.  Yikes!!
TCU 27, *West Virginia (+12.5) 23  (W)
Trends:  TCU is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games
*Georgia (-3) 26, Florida 21  (T)
Trends:  The Gators are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games in November and 0-7 ATS the last 3 seasons after a conference loss
*Arizona (-15.5) 45, California 24  (L)
Trends:  Cal is 1-11 ATS in their last 12 home games
Florida State 44, Miami, FL (+21) 28  (L)
I love FSU and have been with them all along, but eventually someone tests them, right?
Trends:  The underdog is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings
Michigan State 23, Michigan (+4.5) 20 (L)
Before I did my trend reserach, I felt this is the makings of a FG game
Trends:  Road team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Sparty is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games
Ohio State (-31.5) 56, Purdue 7  (W)
It is all about style points for the Buckeyes
Trends:  Purdue is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games
*Indiana (-8) 37, Minnesota 24  (L)
Trends:  Home team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.  Minnesota is 1-9 ATS since 1993 when an underdog of between 7.5 and 10 points
UCLA (-28) 45, Colorado 10  (L)
Trends:  UCLA is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games
Notre Dame 31, Navy (+14.5) 21  (W)
Trends:  Road team is 15-3 ATS in their last 18 meetings
Auburn (-7.5) 34, Arkansas 20  (W)
Trends:  Arkansas is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 against a team with a winning record
Nebraska (-5.5) 35, Northwestern 23  (L)
Trends:  Nebraska is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 at home
South Alabama (-3) 31, Arkansas State 24  (L)
I am going with recent play over trends in this one
Trends:  South Alabama is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games (but 2-1 this year)
Utah State 34, Hawaii (+24) 17  (L)
I don't expect Hawaii to win, but even good offenses haven't beat Hawaii by 24 this year.  The game is at like 9 AM Honolulu time though.
Trends: Hawaii is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall 
*San Jose State (-4) 41, UNLV 28  (W)
Trends:  San Jose State is 16-3 ATS since 1993 as a road favorite and 17-5 ATS in their last 22 on the road
UL Lafayette (-31.5) 59, New Mexico State 14  (L)
New Mexico State is being outscored 60-12 on the road, ULL is outscoring teams 59-16 at home
Trends:  NMSU is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games
Texas State (-11) 30, Idaho 13  (W)
Trends:  Idaho is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 against a team with a winning record
*NC State (+5.5) 27, North Carolina 24  (L)
Trends:  The Tar Heels are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games.  The underdog is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 meetings.
Texas 34, Kansas (+28) 14  (W)
Texas doesn't seem explosive enough to cover a spread like this
Trends:  The Jayhawks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 on field turf and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Longhorns
*Tulane (+2.5) 26, Florida Atlantic 20  (L)
Another game to buck the trends, Tulane is going to be in the C-USA championship game
Trends:  The Green Wave is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 on grass and FAU is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games overall.
*Oklahoma State (+1) 41, Texas Tech 34  (W)
Oklahoma State has won 4 in a row against Texas Tech by an average margin of 46-15.
Trends:  Oklahoma State is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games.
East Carolina (-25.5) 45, Florida International 16  (L)
Trends:  FIU is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games
Fresno State (-20.5) 51, Nevada 21  (L)
Trends:  Nevada is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games.  Nevada is being outscored 51-22 on the road this season
South Carolina 30, Mississippi State (+12) 24  (L)
All the trends say South Carolina, but besides the LSU game, the Bulldogs have been in everything and besides Arkansas, the Gamecocks have not really dominated
Trends:  Mississippi State is 3-9 ATS in the last 3 seasons as an underdog
Colorado State (+7) 33, Boise State 31  (L)
This one is all gut, but the Boise State defense is struggling and they are on their back-up quarterback
Trends:  Boise State is 11-0 SU as a road favorite the past 3 seasons.
San Diego State 35, New Mexico (+14) 31  (W)
Trends:  New Mexico is 14-2 ATS in the last 16 meetings


This week:  22-25-1
This season:  207-174-5