Alright, here are the picks for the tournament. I used no scientific studies for this, just had some fun. Keep in mind that it is no fun to go chalk...
MIDWEST REGION
(1) Louisville over (16) North Carolina A&T
(9) Missouri over (8) Colorado State
(5) Oklahoma State over (12) Oregon
(4) Saint Louis over (13) New Mexico State
(11) St. Mary's (CA) over (6) Memphis
(3) Michigan State over (14) Valparaiso
(7) Creighton over (10) Cincinnati
(2) Duke over (15) Albany
(1) Louisville over (9) Missouri
(4) Saint Louis over (5) Oklahoma State
(3) Michigan State over (11) St. Mary's (CA)
(2) Duke over (7) Creighton
(1) Louisville over (4) Saint Louis
(2) Duke over (3) Michigan State
(2) Duke over (1) Louisville
WEST REGION
(1) Gonzaga over (16) Southern
(8) Pittsburgh over (9) Wichita State
(5) Wisconsin over (12) Mississippi
(4) Kansas State over (13) Boise State/LaSalle
(11) Belmont over (6) Arizona
(3) New Mexico over (14) Harvard
(10) Iowa State over (7) Notre Dame
(2) Ohio State over (15) Iona
(1) Gonzaga over (8) Pittsburgh
(5) Wisconsin over (4) Kansas State
(3) New Mexico over (11) Belmont
(10) Iowa State over (2) Ohio State
(1) Gonzaga over (5) Wisconsin
(3) New Mexico over (10) Iowa State
(1) Gonzaga over (3) New Mexico
SOUTH REGION
(1) Kansas over (16) Western Kentucky
(9) Villanova over (8) North Carolina
(5) VCU over (12) Akron
(4) Michigan over (13) South Dakota State
(11) Minnesota over (6) UCLA
(3) Florida over (14) Northwestern State
(7) San Diego State over (10) Oklahoma
(2) Georgetown over (15) Florida Gulf Coast
(1) Kansas over (9) Villanova
(5) VCU over (4) Michigan
(3) Florida over (11) Minnesota
(2) Georgetown over (7) San Diego State
(1) Kansas over (5) VCU
(2) Georgetown over (3) Florida
(1) Kansas over (2) Georgetown
EAST REGION
(1) Indiana over (16) James Madison/Long Island
(8) NC State over (9) Temple
(5) UNLV over (12) California
(4) Syracuse over (13) Montana
(11) Bucknell over (6) Butler
(14) Davidson over (3) Marquette
(10) Colorado over (7) Illinois
(2) Miami FL over (15) Pacific
(1) Indiana over (8) NC State
(4) Syracuse over (5) UNLV
(11) Bucknell over (14) Davidson
(2) Miami FL over (10) Colorado
(4) Syracuse over (1) Indiana
(2) Miami FL over (11) Bucknell
(4) Syracuse over (2) Miami FL
FINAL FOUR
(2) Duke over (1) Gonzaga
(1) Kansas over (4) Syracuse
CHAMPIONSHIP
(2) Duke over (1) Kansas
Every few years Coach K. reminds is why he is Coach K.
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Wednesday, March 20, 2013
Tuesday, March 19, 2013
3 Point FG % and 3 Point FG per game
Minimum Five 3 Point FG per game
Creighton 42.1 8.8
Indiana 41.1 7.3
Duke 40.6 7.8
Harvard 40.1 6.4
South Dakota St. 39.4 7.8
North Carolina St. 39.3 5.3
Boise St. 39.1 7.8
Belmont 38.6 8.5
Montana 38.5 6.9
Michigan 38.3 7.5
Pacific 38.3 6.4
Florida 38 8.4
Memphis 37.9 6.2
Middle Tenn. 37.8 5.4
Valparaiso 37.6 7.5
St. Mary's (CA) 37.5 7.9
North Carolina 37.4 7.5
Notre Dame 37.3 6.6
Iona 37.3 8.4
Liberty 37.3 6.9
Gonzaga 37.1 6.4
La Salle 37.1 7.6
Iowa St. 37 9.8
Davidson 36.9 7.6
Kansas 36.7 6
Albany (NY) 36.4 6
Arizona 36.3 7.7
Kansas St. 36.3 6.9
Southern U. 36.2 6.8
Pittsburgh 36 5.1
Miami (FL) 35.8 6.8
Georgetown 35.8 5.9
New Mexico 35.4 6.4
VCU 35.2 7.9
Ohio St. 35.1 6
Butler 34.8 6.6
Saint Louis 34.7 6.2
Colorado 34.7 5.4
Missouri 34 6.3
FGCU 33.9 6.8
Wichita St. 33.7 6.6
Akron 33.7 7.1
Villanova 33.6 6.1
Syracuse 33.4 6.1
Wisconsin 33.4 7.4
Temple 33.4 7.3
James Madison 33.3 5.7
Colorado St. 33.2 5.1
Louisville 33.1 5.8
UNLV 33 6.5
Ole Miss 33 6.8
Minnesota 32.6 5.2
Illinois 32.5 7.8
San Diego St. 32.4 5.9
Western Ky. 32.4 6.4
Oregon 32.3 5
Cincinnati 31.7 6.8
Northwestern St. 31.7 6
Oklahoma St. 31.6 5.6
N.C. A&T 29.9 5.7
Creighton 42.1 8.8
Indiana 41.1 7.3
Duke 40.6 7.8
Harvard 40.1 6.4
South Dakota St. 39.4 7.8
North Carolina St. 39.3 5.3
Boise St. 39.1 7.8
Belmont 38.6 8.5
Montana 38.5 6.9
Michigan 38.3 7.5
Pacific 38.3 6.4
Florida 38 8.4
Memphis 37.9 6.2
Middle Tenn. 37.8 5.4
Valparaiso 37.6 7.5
St. Mary's (CA) 37.5 7.9
North Carolina 37.4 7.5
Notre Dame 37.3 6.6
Iona 37.3 8.4
Liberty 37.3 6.9
Gonzaga 37.1 6.4
La Salle 37.1 7.6
Iowa St. 37 9.8
Davidson 36.9 7.6
Kansas 36.7 6
Albany (NY) 36.4 6
Arizona 36.3 7.7
Kansas St. 36.3 6.9
Southern U. 36.2 6.8
Pittsburgh 36 5.1
Miami (FL) 35.8 6.8
Georgetown 35.8 5.9
New Mexico 35.4 6.4
VCU 35.2 7.9
Ohio St. 35.1 6
Butler 34.8 6.6
Saint Louis 34.7 6.2
Colorado 34.7 5.4
Missouri 34 6.3
FGCU 33.9 6.8
Wichita St. 33.7 6.6
Akron 33.7 7.1
Villanova 33.6 6.1
Syracuse 33.4 6.1
Wisconsin 33.4 7.4
Temple 33.4 7.3
James Madison 33.3 5.7
Colorado St. 33.2 5.1
Louisville 33.1 5.8
UNLV 33 6.5
Ole Miss 33 6.8
Minnesota 32.6 5.2
Illinois 32.5 7.8
San Diego St. 32.4 5.9
Western Ky. 32.4 6.4
Oregon 32.3 5
Cincinnati 31.7 6.8
Northwestern St. 31.7 6
Oklahoma St. 31.6 5.6
N.C. A&T 29.9 5.7
Created Possession Margin - 2013 Tournament Teams
Created Possession Margin = Rebound Margin + Turnover Margin = How many more possessions do you get than your opponent
Colorado St. 12.4
Gonzaga 10
Pittsburgh 9.7
Louisville 9.6
Indiana 9.1
Wichita St. 8.8
Missouri 8.4
St. Mary's (CA) 8.4
VCU 8.1
Middle Tenn. 8.1
Florida 7.7
Minnesota 7.2
Cincinnati 6.9
Syracuse 6.9
Oregon 6.8
Arizona 6.7
Ohio St. 6.3
Akron 6.2
Michigan St. 6
Kansas St. 5.9
Memphis 5.8
Michigan 5.8
Kansas 5.8
Boise St. 5.7
UNLV 5.7
Butler 5.6
North Carolina 5.5
Bucknell 5.5
Ole Miss 5.3
Wisconsin 5.2
South Dakota St. 4.9
Iowa St. 4.6
Vermont 4.5
New Mexico St. 4.4
San Diego St. 4.3
Saint Louis 4.2
Miami (FL) 4.2
Oklahoma St. 4.1
Davidson 3.8
Marquette 3.7
Northwestern St. 3.4
Oklahoma 3.4
Notre Dame 3.4
New Mexico 3.3
Creighton 3.2
Colorado 3.1
Belmont 3.1
Georgetown 2.7
Valparaiso 2.7
Southern U. 2.6
Duke 2.5
Villanova 2.5
FGCU 2.4
North Carolina St. 2.2
Albany (NY) 2.2
Iona 2.1
Western Ky. 2.1
Pacific 2
California 1.7
Illinois 1.6
Temple 1.3
UCLA 1.2
James Madison 1.1
La Salle 0.2
N.C. A&T -0.5
Harvard -0.7
Montana -1
Liberty -3.3
Colorado St. 12.4
Gonzaga 10
Pittsburgh 9.7
Louisville 9.6
Indiana 9.1
Wichita St. 8.8
Missouri 8.4
St. Mary's (CA) 8.4
VCU 8.1
Middle Tenn. 8.1
Florida 7.7
Minnesota 7.2
Cincinnati 6.9
Syracuse 6.9
Oregon 6.8
Arizona 6.7
Ohio St. 6.3
Akron 6.2
Michigan St. 6
Kansas St. 5.9
Memphis 5.8
Michigan 5.8
Kansas 5.8
Boise St. 5.7
UNLV 5.7
Butler 5.6
North Carolina 5.5
Bucknell 5.5
Ole Miss 5.3
Wisconsin 5.2
South Dakota St. 4.9
Iowa St. 4.6
Vermont 4.5
New Mexico St. 4.4
San Diego St. 4.3
Saint Louis 4.2
Miami (FL) 4.2
Oklahoma St. 4.1
Davidson 3.8
Marquette 3.7
Northwestern St. 3.4
Oklahoma 3.4
Notre Dame 3.4
New Mexico 3.3
Creighton 3.2
Colorado 3.1
Belmont 3.1
Georgetown 2.7
Valparaiso 2.7
Southern U. 2.6
Duke 2.5
Villanova 2.5
FGCU 2.4
North Carolina St. 2.2
Albany (NY) 2.2
Iona 2.1
Western Ky. 2.1
Pacific 2
California 1.7
Illinois 1.6
Temple 1.3
UCLA 1.2
James Madison 1.1
La Salle 0.2
N.C. A&T -0.5
Harvard -0.7
Montana -1
Liberty -3.3
NCAA Tournament 2013 - Bold Predictions
Many are saying that the crazy regular season in College Basketball will lead to one of the craziest NCAA Tournaments ever, a la 2000, 2006 and 2011 in recent memory. I certainly hope so, it makes it more fun to watch a few of the underdogs take out the Goliaths, even at the expense of your bracket. So if chaos ensues, what might we see? Let me look into my Crystal Ball....
- #15 seeds were so 2012, #14 is the new 15. Two fifteen seeds winning last year was about as improbable as it gets, and with the upsets in the Conference Tourneys weakening the 15-line this year, the 2's are pretty safe this year. The 14's on the other hand have the experience and exhibit certain qualities for an upset-victimizer. I say at least one 14-seed upsets a 3 in the 2nd Round this year.
- Speaking of the 14's, whichever 14 wins will meet an 11 seed in the annual double-digit game. Are you ready for Davidson-Bucknell on Saturday?
- A 10-seed will survive the 1st weekend. Xavier did in 2012. Florida State in 2011. St. Mary's in 2010 and Davidson in 2008. Only in the boring tournament of 2009 did a 10 fail in the past 5 years. Before you put Ohio State or Miami FL in the Final Four, just think hard about Iowa State and Colorado. Just think about it.
- For the third-straight season, a First Round winner will also advance to the Second Round. Yes, Memphis, you are in trouble. The St. Mary's/Middle Tennessee winner matches favorably with Memphis in the KenPom rankings. (Could also be another spot for that 11-14 game between St. Mary's and Valpo)
- With all the other chaos, the 5 seeds will all win and avoid the 5-12 curse.
- A 7 seed or lower will play in the Elite Eight. San Diego State? Pittsburgh? Colorado?
- Villanova will beat North Carolina because we are tired of Roy Williams vs Kansas.
- Indiana will not cut down anymore nets this year. Its karma. You can't cut them down after a loss and cut them down again. Book it.
Monday, March 18, 2013
Field of 68 - The Day After
Here is what I learned from the committee after the Field of 68 was revealed yesterday.
1. With all the tools available to them, they have actually done a very good job the past couple years in selecting and seeding the field. I think there are fewer complaints than ever. This is a great thing because it shifts the focus to the teams that are in and not dwell on the 18-12 teams that are not.
2. That being said, the committee can justify any selection or seeding by concentrating on only one part of a team's equation.
3. Middle Tennessee - the committe really liked how they went and won on the road. That is fine, but 9 of their 11 road wins were against teams with sub 149 RPI's and their best was 103. Yes, Tennessee was 4-7 on the road, but they were 2-0 against teams with sub 149 RPI's. They just played better teams, so you can't look at road records in a vaccuum. I understand the inclusion of the Blue Raiders, but I wanted to point that out.
4. Clearly, the PAC-12 sent some bad food into the room.
5. My biggest seeding gripe is actually between Ohio State and New Mexico. I realize that with the strength of the Big 10, the committee wanted to award a #2 seed to at least one of the Big 10 teams. The problem I have, is the inconsistency of their message. New Mexico had a non-conference SOS of 3 and overall of 2. Ohio State had a non-conference SOS of 134 and overall of 11. New Mexico lost two fewer games. The Lobos had 19 top 100 victories, the Buckeyes had 10. New Mexico played only one team with an RPI over 200, Portland at 231. Ohio State played 6 over 200, 4 of those over 250. New Mexico won the Mountain West regular season and tournament titles, essentially playing the tournament final on the road. Ohio State won the Big 10 Tourney Title, but did not have to beat the #1 seed in order to do so. Oh yeah, and the Buckeyes were 5-5 on the road. What message did this send to the Mountain West, who is actually rated #1 by the committee's very own RPI?
6. I don't find the regions to be very balanced.
7. It was bad luck for Indiana that the team that passed them up was in the same geographic preference. That said, I would take Indiana's draw over Louisville's at first glance.
8. Stop trying to feed us Roy Williams vs Kansas. We have been there!!
9. Good luck on the next step...filling these brackets out!!
1. With all the tools available to them, they have actually done a very good job the past couple years in selecting and seeding the field. I think there are fewer complaints than ever. This is a great thing because it shifts the focus to the teams that are in and not dwell on the 18-12 teams that are not.
2. That being said, the committee can justify any selection or seeding by concentrating on only one part of a team's equation.
3. Middle Tennessee - the committe really liked how they went and won on the road. That is fine, but 9 of their 11 road wins were against teams with sub 149 RPI's and their best was 103. Yes, Tennessee was 4-7 on the road, but they were 2-0 against teams with sub 149 RPI's. They just played better teams, so you can't look at road records in a vaccuum. I understand the inclusion of the Blue Raiders, but I wanted to point that out.
4. Clearly, the PAC-12 sent some bad food into the room.
5. My biggest seeding gripe is actually between Ohio State and New Mexico. I realize that with the strength of the Big 10, the committee wanted to award a #2 seed to at least one of the Big 10 teams. The problem I have, is the inconsistency of their message. New Mexico had a non-conference SOS of 3 and overall of 2. Ohio State had a non-conference SOS of 134 and overall of 11. New Mexico lost two fewer games. The Lobos had 19 top 100 victories, the Buckeyes had 10. New Mexico played only one team with an RPI over 200, Portland at 231. Ohio State played 6 over 200, 4 of those over 250. New Mexico won the Mountain West regular season and tournament titles, essentially playing the tournament final on the road. Ohio State won the Big 10 Tourney Title, but did not have to beat the #1 seed in order to do so. Oh yeah, and the Buckeyes were 5-5 on the road. What message did this send to the Mountain West, who is actually rated #1 by the committee's very own RPI?
6. I don't find the regions to be very balanced.
7. It was bad luck for Indiana that the team that passed them up was in the same geographic preference. That said, I would take Indiana's draw over Louisville's at first glance.
8. Stop trying to feed us Roy Williams vs Kansas. We have been there!!
9. Good luck on the next step...filling these brackets out!!
Sunday, March 17, 2013
Field of 68 - FINAL BRACKET
Midwest Regional (Overall #1)
(1) Louisville vs (16) Southern/North Carolina A&T
Lexington, KY
(8) Colorado State vs (9) North Carolina State
(5) Oklahoma State vs (12) Akron
San Jose, CA
(4) Wisconsin vs (13) New Mexico State
(6) VCU vs (11) Boise State/St. Mary's
Dayton, OH
(3) Ohio State vs (14) Northwestern State
(7) Oregon vs (10) Cincinnati
Salt Lake City, UT
(2) New Mexico vs (15) Iona
West Regional (Overall #4)
(1) Miami, FL vs (16) James Madison
Lexington, KY
(8) San Diego State vs (9) Missouri
(5) Syracuse vs (12) LaSalle/Tennessee
Auburn Hills, MI
(4) Michigan vs (13) Bucknell
(6) UCLA vs (11) Iowa State
Austin, TX
(3) Marquette vs (14) Montana
(7) Creighton vs (10) Minnesota
Salt Lake City, UT
(2) Gonzaga vs (15) Pacific
East Regional
(1) Indiana vs (16) Liberty/Long Island
Dayton, OH
(8) Pittsburgh vs (9) Temple
(5) Kansas State vs (12) Mississippi
San Jose, CA
(4) Arizona vs (13) South Dakota State
(6) Butler vs (11) California
Austin, TX
(3) Florida vs (14) Florida Gulf Coast
(7) Notre Dame vs (10) Wichita State
Philadelphia, PA
(2) Duke vs (15) Albany
South Regional
(1) Kansas vs (16) Western Kentucky
Kansas City, MO
(8) Illinois vs (9) Villanova
(5) UNLV vs (12) Belmont
Kansas City, MO
(4) St. Louis vs (13) Valparaiso
(6) Memphis vs (11) Oklahoma
Auburn Hills, MI
(3) Michigan State vs (14) Davidson
(7) North Carolina vs (10) Colorado
Philadelphia, PA
(2) Georgetown vs (15) Harvard
(1) Louisville vs (16) Southern/North Carolina A&T
Lexington, KY
(8) Colorado State vs (9) North Carolina State
(5) Oklahoma State vs (12) Akron
San Jose, CA
(4) Wisconsin vs (13) New Mexico State
(6) VCU vs (11) Boise State/St. Mary's
Dayton, OH
(3) Ohio State vs (14) Northwestern State
(7) Oregon vs (10) Cincinnati
Salt Lake City, UT
(2) New Mexico vs (15) Iona
West Regional (Overall #4)
(1) Miami, FL vs (16) James Madison
Lexington, KY
(8) San Diego State vs (9) Missouri
(5) Syracuse vs (12) LaSalle/Tennessee
Auburn Hills, MI
(4) Michigan vs (13) Bucknell
(6) UCLA vs (11) Iowa State
Austin, TX
(3) Marquette vs (14) Montana
(7) Creighton vs (10) Minnesota
Salt Lake City, UT
(2) Gonzaga vs (15) Pacific
East Regional
(1) Indiana vs (16) Liberty/Long Island
Dayton, OH
(8) Pittsburgh vs (9) Temple
(5) Kansas State vs (12) Mississippi
San Jose, CA
(4) Arizona vs (13) South Dakota State
(6) Butler vs (11) California
Austin, TX
(3) Florida vs (14) Florida Gulf Coast
(7) Notre Dame vs (10) Wichita State
Philadelphia, PA
(2) Duke vs (15) Albany
South Regional
(1) Kansas vs (16) Western Kentucky
Kansas City, MO
(8) Illinois vs (9) Villanova
(5) UNLV vs (12) Belmont
Kansas City, MO
(4) St. Louis vs (13) Valparaiso
(6) Memphis vs (11) Oklahoma
Auburn Hills, MI
(3) Michigan State vs (14) Davidson
(7) North Carolina vs (10) Colorado
Philadelphia, PA
(2) Georgetown vs (15) Harvard
Field of 68 - Final Seed List, March 17, 2013
Time to go final with the projected tournament seeds. I am comfortable enough on Wisconsin at a #4 to just get this done. I will follow with my bracket. Thanks to everyone who has been following.
1 - LOUISVILLE, Indiana, KANSAS, MIAMI, FL
2 - GONZAGA, DUKE, NEW MEXICO, Georgetown
3 - Ohio State, Florida, Michigan State, Marquette
4 - ST. LOUIS, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin
5 - Kansas State, Syracuse, UNLV, Oklahoma State
6 - UCLA, VCU, MEMPHIS, Butler
7 - North Carolina, CREIGHTON, OREGON, Notre Dame
8 - Pittsburgh, San Diego State, Illinois, Colorado State
9 - Missouri, NC State, Villanova, Temple
10 - Minnesota, Colorado, Cincinnati, Wichita State
11 - Iowa State, California, Oklahoma, Boise State/St. Mary's
12 - MISSISSIPPI, AKRON, BELMONT, LaSalle/Tennessee
13 - BUCKNELL, NEW MEXICO STATE, SOUTH DAKOTA STATE, VALPARAISO
14 - DAVIDSON, FLORIDA GULF COAST, NORTHWESTERN STATE, MONTANA
15 - HARVARD, IONA, PACIFIC, ALBANY
16 - JAMES MADISON, WESTERN KENTUCKY, NORTH CAROLINA A&T/SOUTHERN, LONG ISLAND/LIBERTY
1 - LOUISVILLE, Indiana, KANSAS, MIAMI, FL
2 - GONZAGA, DUKE, NEW MEXICO, Georgetown
3 - Ohio State, Florida, Michigan State, Marquette
4 - ST. LOUIS, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin
5 - Kansas State, Syracuse, UNLV, Oklahoma State
6 - UCLA, VCU, MEMPHIS, Butler
7 - North Carolina, CREIGHTON, OREGON, Notre Dame
8 - Pittsburgh, San Diego State, Illinois, Colorado State
9 - Missouri, NC State, Villanova, Temple
10 - Minnesota, Colorado, Cincinnati, Wichita State
11 - Iowa State, California, Oklahoma, Boise State/St. Mary's
12 - MISSISSIPPI, AKRON, BELMONT, LaSalle/Tennessee
13 - BUCKNELL, NEW MEXICO STATE, SOUTH DAKOTA STATE, VALPARAISO
14 - DAVIDSON, FLORIDA GULF COAST, NORTHWESTERN STATE, MONTANA
15 - HARVARD, IONA, PACIFIC, ALBANY
16 - JAMES MADISON, WESTERN KENTUCKY, NORTH CAROLINA A&T/SOUTHERN, LONG ISLAND/LIBERTY
- Tough Call between Duke and Miami, FL for the final #1. Miami, FL double dipped the ACC regular season and tournament championships, so I am going out on a limb that they will nab the final #1. Duke was 18-1 with Ryan Kelly, but failed in the ACC Quarters with Kelly in the line-up.
- I wanted to put St. Louis as a #3, but there is not much historical context for an A-10 team with a 16 RPI and a bad loss to take that slot. I instead went with Marquette, but I don't feel great about it, despite their share of the Big East championship.
- The quality of Wisconsin's wins has vaulted them past Kansas State.
- I have penalized Notre Dame and Pitt a seed line for their horrific Non-Conference schedules. Let's see if the committee does the same.
- I wanted to put Butler lower, but you can't take away wins over Indiana, Gonzaga, Marquette and North Carolina. They just can't beat St. Louis.
- Memphis as a 6? At 30-4, it seemed like the right spot, but I over-seed them every year now.
- I went with my gut on Villanova as a 9 based on quality wins.
- Finally, I am giving Tennessee the last spot over Middle Tennessee.
Saturday, March 16, 2013
Field of 68 - Seed List, March 16, 2013
The eve of Selection Sunday and the Bubble just opened up.
1 - Indiana, Duke, Louisville, GONZAGA
2 - Kansas, Georgetown, New Mexico, Miami, FL
3 - Florida, Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan
4 - Marquette, Kansas State, St. Louis, Arizona
5 - Syracuse, UCLA, UNLV, Oklahoma State
6 - Wisconsin, Butler, VCU, Notre Dame
7 - Memphis, Colorado State, CREIGHTON, Pittsburgh
8 - North Carolina, San Diego State, Illinois, NC State
9 - Missouri, Minnesota, Cincinnati, Oregon
10 - Villanova, Colorado, Iowa State, Temple
11 - Wichita State, California, Oklahoma, BELMONT
12 - Tennessee/St. Mary's, Kentucky/LaSalle, Boise State, Bucknell
13 - New Mexico State, Ohio, SOUTH DAKOTA STATE, Stephen F Austin
14 - HARVARD, VALPARAISO, DAVIDSON, FLORIDA GULF COAST
15 - Montana, IONA, Pacific, Vermont
16 - JAMES MADISON, LONG ISLAND, Morgan State/Southern, WESTERN KENTUCKY/LIBERTY
1 - Indiana, Duke, Louisville, GONZAGA
2 - Kansas, Georgetown, New Mexico, Miami, FL
3 - Florida, Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan
4 - Marquette, Kansas State, St. Louis, Arizona
5 - Syracuse, UCLA, UNLV, Oklahoma State
6 - Wisconsin, Butler, VCU, Notre Dame
7 - Memphis, Colorado State, CREIGHTON, Pittsburgh
8 - North Carolina, San Diego State, Illinois, NC State
9 - Missouri, Minnesota, Cincinnati, Oregon
10 - Villanova, Colorado, Iowa State, Temple
11 - Wichita State, California, Oklahoma, BELMONT
12 - Tennessee/St. Mary's, Kentucky/LaSalle, Boise State, Bucknell
13 - New Mexico State, Ohio, SOUTH DAKOTA STATE, Stephen F Austin
14 - HARVARD, VALPARAISO, DAVIDSON, FLORIDA GULF COAST
15 - Montana, IONA, Pacific, Vermont
16 - JAMES MADISON, LONG ISLAND, Morgan State/Southern, WESTERN KENTUCKY/LIBERTY
- Remaining Bid-Stealers -
UTEP, Tulsa, Southern Miss,Charlotte,St. Joseph's,Boston College, Maryland,Florida State, Nebraska, Utah,LSU, Vanderbilt - Bid Stealers Lite (may need only to get to Championship Game and get help) - Massachusetts, Alabama, Ole Miss,
Iowa - 69th Team -
Virginia
- Kansas can put a lot of pressure on the committee with a win over Kansas State tonight. Should they be a #1 seed?
- Michigan State and Ohio State play for a possible #2 seed should New Mexico or Miami FL slip-up.
- If Kansas State defeats Kansas, they should supplant a Big Ten team on the #3 line, probably Michigan.
- What does the committee do with UCLA? They will only have one game to judge them without second leading scorer Jordan Adams.
- If Syracuse wins the Big East tournament, they will make a case for the #4 line.
- The Atlantic 10 semis will have seeding implications.
- I know the committee awards bids to teams, not conferences, but doesn't it seem like UMass is playing for LaSalle's bid and that Ole Miss and Alabama are competing directly with Tennessee and Kentucky?
- I am holding firm on my field until the results of today's games are in. I don't know if beating Missouri vaults Ole Miss into the field like Joe Lunardi says.
- I really want to say Villanova will be a #9 seed.
- North Carolina or NC State can move-up to a #7 yet, with Colorado State and Pitt the ones likely to move down.
Friday, March 15, 2013
Field of 68 - Friday Updates
Friday afternoon thoughts...
- The losses by Tennessee, LaSalle and Virginia open up the field to the next wave of teams. I believe Virginia is out no matter what. Some will disagree, but I am sticking to it.
- I still think Alabama needs to beat Florida tomorrow to be under full consideration.
- Same story for Iowa if they beat Michigan State this evening.
- Kentucky is in with a win over Vanderbilt, otherwise they join the Volunteers, Explorers and Cavaliers wondering who is the most vulnerable.
- Did Michigan fall to a #4 today? A lot will depend on some other results, but it is a real possibility.
- NC State might have solidified an 8-9 seed and looked very good today.
- Wisconsin has a strange resume.
Top Seeds - Records vs Top Seeds
Here is just a quick look at how the top seeds have fared against one another. I used my projected Top 5 seed lines as the cut-off, which includes 20 teams. Not sure what it means, but I thought it would be interesting to look at.
Duke 3-1
Indiana 6-1
Louisville 2-3
Gonzaga 2-0
Kansas 5-2
Georgetown 5-2
Miami FL 2-2
New Mexico 1-2
Michigan State 3-5
Florida 1-2
Michigan 3-4
Ohio State 3-5
Arizona 2-2
Marquette 2-3
Kansas State 2-5
St. Louis 1-1
Oklahoma State 2-3
Syracuse 1-4
UCLA 2-1
UNLV 1-1
Duke 3-1
Indiana 6-1
Louisville 2-3
Gonzaga 2-0
Kansas 5-2
Georgetown 5-2
Miami FL 2-2
New Mexico 1-2
Michigan State 3-5
Florida 1-2
Michigan 3-4
Ohio State 3-5
Arizona 2-2
Marquette 2-3
Kansas State 2-5
St. Louis 1-1
Oklahoma State 2-3
Syracuse 1-4
UCLA 2-1
UNLV 1-1
Field of 68 - Seed List, March 15, 2013
Three days to go until this all becomes real. Today will be a big game in bubble land and for the elimination of most of the Bid-stealers. I will try to bracket this up later to check out locations and potential match-ups.
1 - Duke, Indiana, Louisville, GONZAGA
2 - Kansas, Georgetown, New Mexico, Miami, FL
3 - Michigan, Florida, Michigan State, Ohio State
4 - Marquette, Arizona, Kansas State, St. Louis
5 - Oklahoma State, Syracuse, UCLA, UNLV
6 - Wisconsin, Butler, VCU, Notre Dame
7 - Memphis, Colorado State, CREIGHTON, Pittsburgh
8 - North Carolina, Missouri, San Diego State, Illinois
9 - Minnesota, Temple, Cincinnati, Oregon
10 - NC State, Villanova, Colorado, Iowa State
11 - Wichita State, Boise State, Oklahoma, BELMONT
12 - Tennessee/St. Mary's, Kentucky/LaSalle, California, Bucknell
13 - New Mexico State, Ohio, SOUTH DAKOTA STATE, Stephen F Austin
14 - HARVARD, VALPARAISO, DAVIDSON, FLORIDA GULF COAST
15 - Montana, IONA, Long Beach State, Vermont
16 - JAMES MADISON, LONG ISLAND, Morgan State/Southern, WESTERN KENTUCKY/LIBERTY
1 - Duke, Indiana, Louisville, GONZAGA
2 - Kansas, Georgetown, New Mexico, Miami, FL
3 - Michigan, Florida, Michigan State, Ohio State
4 - Marquette, Arizona, Kansas State, St. Louis
5 - Oklahoma State, Syracuse, UCLA, UNLV
6 - Wisconsin, Butler, VCU, Notre Dame
7 - Memphis, Colorado State, CREIGHTON, Pittsburgh
8 - North Carolina, Missouri, San Diego State, Illinois
9 - Minnesota, Temple, Cincinnati, Oregon
10 - NC State, Villanova, Colorado, Iowa State
11 - Wichita State, Boise State, Oklahoma, BELMONT
12 - Tennessee/St. Mary's, Kentucky/LaSalle, California, Bucknell
13 - New Mexico State, Ohio, SOUTH DAKOTA STATE, Stephen F Austin
14 - HARVARD, VALPARAISO, DAVIDSON, FLORIDA GULF COAST
15 - Montana, IONA, Long Beach State, Vermont
16 - JAMES MADISON, LONG ISLAND, Morgan State/Southern, WESTERN KENTUCKY/LIBERTY
- Remaining Bid-Stealers - UTEP, Tulsa, Southern Miss,
Charlotte, St. Joseph's,Boston College, Maryland, Florida State, Nebraska, Utah,LSU, Vanderbilt - Bid Stealers Lite (may need only to get to Championship Game and get help) - Massachusetts, Alabama, Ole Miss, Iowa
- 69th Team - Virginia
Field of 68 - The Bracket, March 15, 2013
(1) East Region (to play West Region in Final Four)
(1) Duke vs (16) Long Island
Philadelphia, PA
(8) San Diego State vs (9) Minnesota
(5) UCLA vs (12) Tennessee/LaSalle
Lexington, KY
(4) Marquette vs (13) Stephen F. Austin
(6) Notre Dame vs (11) Oklahoma
Auburn Hills, MI
(3) Michigan vs (14) Valparaiso
(7) Creighton vs (10) NC State
Salt Lake City, UT
(2) New Mexico vs (15) Long Beach State
(4) West Region (to play East Region in Final Four)
(1) Gonzaga vs (16) James Madison
Salt Lake City, UT
(8) Missouri vs (9) Temple
(5) Syracuse vs (12) Boise State
San Jose, CA
(4) Arizona vs (13) South Dakota State
(6) VCU vs (11) California
Austin, TX
(3) Ohio State vs (14) Davidson
(7) Colorado State vs (10) Villanova
Kansas City, MO
(2) Kansas vs (15) Montana
(2) Midwest Region (to play South Region in Final Four)
(1) Indiana vs (16) Western Kentucky/Liberty
Dayton, OH
(8) North Carolina vs (9) Cincinnati
(5) Oklahoma State vs (12) Bucknell
San Jose, CA
(4) St. Louis vs (13) New Mexico State
(6) Wisconsin vs (11) Wichita State
Dayton, OH
(3) Florida vs (14) Florida Gulf Coast
(7) Memphis vs (10) Iowa State
Philadelphia, PA
(2) Georgetown vs (15) Vermont
(3) South Region (to play Midwest Region in Final Four)
(1) Louisville vs (16) Southern/Morgan State
Lexington, KY
(8) Illinois vs (9) Oregon
(5) UNLV vs (12) Kentucky/St. Mary's
Kansas City, MO
(4) Kansas State vs (13) Ohio
(6) Butler vs (11) Belmont
Auburn Hills, MI
(3) Michigan State vs (14) Harvard
(7) Pittsburgh vs (10) Colorado
Austin, TX
(2) Miami, FL vs (15) Iona
(1) Duke vs (16) Long Island
Philadelphia, PA
(8) San Diego State vs (9) Minnesota
(5) UCLA vs (12) Tennessee/LaSalle
Lexington, KY
(4) Marquette vs (13) Stephen F. Austin
(6) Notre Dame vs (11) Oklahoma
Auburn Hills, MI
(3) Michigan vs (14) Valparaiso
(7) Creighton vs (10) NC State
Salt Lake City, UT
(2) New Mexico vs (15) Long Beach State
(4) West Region (to play East Region in Final Four)
(1) Gonzaga vs (16) James Madison
Salt Lake City, UT
(8) Missouri vs (9) Temple
(5) Syracuse vs (12) Boise State
San Jose, CA
(4) Arizona vs (13) South Dakota State
(6) VCU vs (11) California
Austin, TX
(3) Ohio State vs (14) Davidson
(7) Colorado State vs (10) Villanova
Kansas City, MO
(2) Kansas vs (15) Montana
(2) Midwest Region (to play South Region in Final Four)
(1) Indiana vs (16) Western Kentucky/Liberty
Dayton, OH
(8) North Carolina vs (9) Cincinnati
(5) Oklahoma State vs (12) Bucknell
San Jose, CA
(4) St. Louis vs (13) New Mexico State
(6) Wisconsin vs (11) Wichita State
Dayton, OH
(3) Florida vs (14) Florida Gulf Coast
(7) Memphis vs (10) Iowa State
Philadelphia, PA
(2) Georgetown vs (15) Vermont
(3) South Region (to play Midwest Region in Final Four)
(1) Louisville vs (16) Southern/Morgan State
Lexington, KY
(8) Illinois vs (9) Oregon
(5) UNLV vs (12) Kentucky/St. Mary's
Kansas City, MO
(4) Kansas State vs (13) Ohio
(6) Butler vs (11) Belmont
Auburn Hills, MI
(3) Michigan State vs (14) Harvard
(7) Pittsburgh vs (10) Colorado
Austin, TX
(2) Miami, FL vs (15) Iona
Wednesday, March 13, 2013
Field of 68 - Seed List, March 13, 2013
Just a small update to account for the automatic bids won the past two nights (and a flip between UNLV and Pittsburgh for now). Things get busier starting today and really take-off tomorrow in the conference tournaments.
1 - Duke, Indiana, Louisville, GONZAGA
2 - Kansas, Georgetown, New Mexico, Miami, FL
3 - Michigan, Florida, Marquette, Michigan State
4 - Ohio State, Arizona, Kansas State, St. Louis
5 - Oklahoma State, Syracuse, UCLA, UNLV
6 - Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, Butler, VCU
7 - Memphis, Colorado State, CREIGHTON, Notre Dame
8 - North Carolina, Missouri, Minnesota, Temple
9 - Illinois, San Diego State, Villanova, Cincinnati
10 - Boise State, NC State, Oregon, Colorado
11 - Wichita State, California, Oklahoma, BELMONT
12 - Tennessee/St. Mary's, Kentucky/LaSalle, Iowa State, Bucknell
13 - Denver, Ohio, SOUTH DAKOTA STATE, Stephen F Austin
14 - HARVARD, VALPARAISO, DAVIDSON, FLORIDA GULF COAST
15 - Montana, IONA, Long Beach State, Vermont
16 - JAMES MADISON, LONG ISLAND, Norfolk State/Southern, WESTERN KENTUCKY/LIBERTY
I will end with the great Gonzaga debate today. The season is done for the "Zags", so besides the shuffling of RPI's based on other results, we at least have the quantitative aspect of their season complete. First the positives...Gonzaga looks really, really good. I would not want to play them in the early rounds of the tournament. They finished with just 2 losses and one of those was an amazing buzzer-beater that should never have happened. But it is still a loss. They have no bad losses, which Kansas, Miami and Michigan cannot attest to. So they are a slam dunk for a #1 seed? Here is where I pause. I have accumulated data on the past 12 NCAA tournaments and Gonzaga's 10 Top 100 wins would be the fewest of any #1 seed in that time. Granted their have been a couple with 11, but it is just to show out of the past 48 #1 seeds, none have had that few. Their 2 top 25 and 6 top 50 wins are on the low side. SOS of 72 is not usually that of a #1 seed.
My recent comparison is San Diego State from two years ago. Co-Champions of the Mountain West with BYU and MWC Tournament Champions that season, the Aztecs finished 31-2, with both losses coming to BYU who had an RPI of 5. SDSU had 4 Top 25 RPI wins, 7 top 50, and 13 top 100, all greater than that of Gonzaga. The SOS I have for those Aztecs was 22. Their final RPI of 3 is higher than where Gonzaga currently sits. San Diego State received a #2 seed in the West region, behind a 5-loss Pittsburgh team with an RPI of 10.
So what will the committee do this year? If Kansas wins the Big 12 tournament title, I can see them being #1 in the West with Gonzaga a #2. Miami FL could also do the same with a sweep through the ACC tournament. Otherwise, Gonzaga seems safe as the 4th #1, with Duke in the East, Indiana in the Midwest and either Louisville or Georgetown in the South.
1 - Duke, Indiana, Louisville, GONZAGA
2 - Kansas, Georgetown, New Mexico, Miami, FL
3 - Michigan, Florida, Marquette, Michigan State
4 - Ohio State, Arizona, Kansas State, St. Louis
5 - Oklahoma State, Syracuse, UCLA, UNLV
6 - Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, Butler, VCU
7 - Memphis, Colorado State, CREIGHTON, Notre Dame
8 - North Carolina, Missouri, Minnesota, Temple
9 - Illinois, San Diego State, Villanova, Cincinnati
10 - Boise State, NC State, Oregon, Colorado
11 - Wichita State, California, Oklahoma, BELMONT
12 - Tennessee/St. Mary's, Kentucky/LaSalle, Iowa State, Bucknell
13 - Denver, Ohio, SOUTH DAKOTA STATE, Stephen F Austin
14 - HARVARD, VALPARAISO, DAVIDSON, FLORIDA GULF COAST
15 - Montana, IONA, Long Beach State, Vermont
16 - JAMES MADISON, LONG ISLAND, Norfolk State/Southern, WESTERN KENTUCKY/LIBERTY
I will end with the great Gonzaga debate today. The season is done for the "Zags", so besides the shuffling of RPI's based on other results, we at least have the quantitative aspect of their season complete. First the positives...Gonzaga looks really, really good. I would not want to play them in the early rounds of the tournament. They finished with just 2 losses and one of those was an amazing buzzer-beater that should never have happened. But it is still a loss. They have no bad losses, which Kansas, Miami and Michigan cannot attest to. So they are a slam dunk for a #1 seed? Here is where I pause. I have accumulated data on the past 12 NCAA tournaments and Gonzaga's 10 Top 100 wins would be the fewest of any #1 seed in that time. Granted their have been a couple with 11, but it is just to show out of the past 48 #1 seeds, none have had that few. Their 2 top 25 and 6 top 50 wins are on the low side. SOS of 72 is not usually that of a #1 seed.
My recent comparison is San Diego State from two years ago. Co-Champions of the Mountain West with BYU and MWC Tournament Champions that season, the Aztecs finished 31-2, with both losses coming to BYU who had an RPI of 5. SDSU had 4 Top 25 RPI wins, 7 top 50, and 13 top 100, all greater than that of Gonzaga. The SOS I have for those Aztecs was 22. Their final RPI of 3 is higher than where Gonzaga currently sits. San Diego State received a #2 seed in the West region, behind a 5-loss Pittsburgh team with an RPI of 10.
So what will the committee do this year? If Kansas wins the Big 12 tournament title, I can see them being #1 in the West with Gonzaga a #2. Miami FL could also do the same with a sweep through the ACC tournament. Otherwise, Gonzaga seems safe as the 4th #1, with Duke in the East, Indiana in the Midwest and either Louisville or Georgetown in the South.
Monday, March 11, 2013
Field of 68 - Seed List, March 11, 2013
I did a "seed scrub" yesterday as action was unfolding, so there are some adjustments where teams may have been moved more than expected from my last update. The Field is also solidifying, with very few spots up for grabs.
1 - Duke, Indiana, Gonzaga, Louisville
2 - Kansas, Georgetown, New Mexico, Miami, FL
3 - Michigan, Florida, Marquette, Michigan State
4 - Ohio State, Arizona, Kansas State, St. Louis
5 - Oklahoma State, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, UCLA
6 - Wisconsin, Butler, VCU, UNLV
7 - Memphis, Colorado State, CREIGHTON, Notre Dame
8 - North Carolina, Missouri, Minnesota, Temple
9 - Illinois, San Diego State, Villanova, Cincinnati
10 - Boise State, NC State, Oregon, Colorado
11 - Wichita State, California, Oklahoma, BELMONT
12 - Tennessee/St. Mary's, Kentucky/LaSalle, Iowa State, Akron
13 - Denver, Bucknell, South Dakota State, Valparaiso
14 - HARVARD, Stephen F Austin, Davidson, FLORIDA GULF COAST
15 - Montana, Iona, Florida International, Northeastern
16 - Long Beach State, Long Island, Vermont/Southern, Norfolk State/LIBERTY
1 - Duke, Indiana, Gonzaga, Louisville
2 - Kansas, Georgetown, New Mexico, Miami, FL
3 - Michigan, Florida, Marquette, Michigan State
4 - Ohio State, Arizona, Kansas State, St. Louis
5 - Oklahoma State, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, UCLA
6 - Wisconsin, Butler, VCU, UNLV
7 - Memphis, Colorado State, CREIGHTON, Notre Dame
8 - North Carolina, Missouri, Minnesota, Temple
9 - Illinois, San Diego State, Villanova, Cincinnati
10 - Boise State, NC State, Oregon, Colorado
11 - Wichita State, California, Oklahoma, BELMONT
12 - Tennessee/St. Mary's, Kentucky/LaSalle, Iowa State, Akron
13 - Denver, Bucknell, South Dakota State, Valparaiso
14 - HARVARD, Stephen F Austin, Davidson, FLORIDA GULF COAST
15 - Montana, Iona, Florida International, Northeastern
16 - Long Beach State, Long Island, Vermont/Southern, Norfolk State/LIBERTY
Friday, March 8, 2013
Bubble Mania (will keep adding as time permits)
By my count, it is down to 10 days until selection Sunday. It seems this year, the Field is solidifying better than in the past, with more teams all but locking down spots at this point than in the past few years. Seeding is a different story, as teams will use these 10 days to try and add quality victories that will enhance their resumes for the committee. So where do we stand right now? Let's take a look.
Locks (59)
ACC - Duke, Miami FL, North Carolina, North Carolina State
Atlantic 10 - St. Louis, VCU, Butler
Big East - Louisville, Georgetown, Marquette, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
Big Ten - Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois
Big 12 - Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma
Conference USA - Memphis
Missouri Valley - Creighton, Wichita State
Mountain West - New Mexico, UNLV, Colorado State, San Diego State
PAC 12 - Arizona, UCLA, Oregon, California, Colorado
SEC - Florida, Missouri
WCC - Gonzaga
20 Automatic Qualifiers from Conferences not listed above
Should Be In (3)
Villanova (18-12) - I will start with the Wildcats, who have completed their Big East regular season with a 10-8 conference mark. The resume now includes 4 Top 25 wins, a mark that almost guarantees a bid unless your RPI is unsightly, which Villanova's is not at 53 due to a SOS of 19. They will face off against St. John's or Cincinnati in the first round of the Big East tournament, neither of which would be a bad loss. Do I think they are in? Yes. Win one game in the Big East Tourney and its a lock.
Cincinnati (20-10) - The Bearcats finish the Big East season at home vs South Florida. The Bearcats actually compiled a decent non-conference resume this year, so a .500 conference record should be good enough to earn a bid this year. Things get trickier if they lose to the Bulls, which may then require a victory over Villanova in the Big East Tourney.
Temple (22-8) - The Owls have won 5 in a row after the Duquesne debacle and close the year with VCU at home. A win their is a trip to the NCAA's, but a loss there and another loss to a bottom-division team in the First Round of the A-10 Tourney would put them square on the Bubble, despite their win over Syracuse and 9 overall Top 100 wins.
Bubble (6 spots available)
St. Mary's (25-5) - The Gaels will have an interesting resume to compare to if they fail to earn the WCC automatic bid. If that loss is to Gonzaga, their RPI should not take much of a hit, putting them in solid position. The big question is, can a resume that includes a victory over Creighton and 3 over BYU but not much else get you into the dance?
Boise State (18-9) - Yes, the Broncos do play more than football. Have they played it well enough to dance? With an RPI of 44, a road win at Creighton and victories over UNLV and Colorado State, there is a lot to like about this resume. The losses to Nevada and Utah are what is holding it back a little. Their regular season finale is San Diego State at home, which is likely a win and get in scenario. Should they lose, they will see those same Aztecs on a neutral floor next week. If they get swept, it will come down to what has happened around them.
Iowa State (20-10) - The Cyclones have beaten Kansas State, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, but have some holes in their resume. More specifically, a 3-8 road record and a loss to Texas Tech, combined with just 6 Top 100 victories. They close at West Virginia, and given their road woes, that is no gimme. It looks like Oklahoma or Oklahoma State in the first round of the Big 12, so if they trip up in Morgantown, they have a tough one right away next week. It would be nice to see another quality victory here, but just getting that additional road win might be enough.
LaSalle (21-7) - The Explorers sit with just 5 Top 100 victories, a mark that typically does not get an Atlantic 10 team into the tournament. They have the big road win at VCU and home win vs Butler, as well as beating Villanova. The other black mark is the loss to Central Connecticut State. LaSalle closes at St. Louis, a tough game but one that won't do much damage to their RPI of 41. They could still secure a top 4 seed in the A-10 Tourney with a loss, landing them an initial game against Temple, UMass or Xavier. All those teams would provide an additional top 100 win
Tennessee (18-11) - The Volunteers have emerged in February, positioning them to be part of the March conversation. They have a signature win over Florida, coupled with 8 Top 100 wins. Their worst losses were a sweep by Georgia (RPI of 122) , but their best road win is Texas A&M (RPI of 93). Tennessee also has a 200 +/- of 1, so two losses to end the season would put them at -1, a mark few have gained an at-large berth with. They can probably put a bid to rest by beating Missouri at home on Saturday. If they lose, the SEC is too jumbled to have any clue how the conference tourney will look, but the Vols would need to secure one, maybe two wins their to gain comfortable status.
Virginia (20-10) - What to do about the Cavaliers? It is probably the most controversial part of the Bubble Talk right now. 7-3 vs the Top 100, with wins over Duke, North Carolina, NC State, at Wisconsin and over fellow bubbler Tennessee. 13-7 against the 101+, including a loss to Old Dominion (RPI of 318). On one hand, you want a team in the tournament capable of beating the likes that UVA has defeated, but on the other hand, can you reward a team that has lost so many bad games? The Cavs finish the regular season at home against Maryland, an opportunity for another top 100 win. With a win, they can possibly get to the #4 seed in the ACC, which would help them avoid the 5-12 game which could prove disastrous.
Iowa (19-11) - The Hawkeyes host Nebraska this weekend, a win would give them a .500 record in the Big 10 and 20 wins on the season. They have wins against Minnesota, Illinois and Wisconsin, but their best road win is Penn State (RPI of 176). The non-conference SOS of 308 brings their RPI in at 75, so there is work left to do. A win over Nebraska would give Iowa the 6 or 7 seed and a match-up with Nebraska or Northwestern. They would then have one last shot at an Ohio State or Michigan State to get that real signature win on a neutral floor.
Locks (59)
ACC - Duke, Miami FL, North Carolina, North Carolina State
Atlantic 10 - St. Louis, VCU, Butler
Big East - Louisville, Georgetown, Marquette, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
Big Ten - Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois
Big 12 - Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma
Conference USA - Memphis
Missouri Valley - Creighton, Wichita State
Mountain West - New Mexico, UNLV, Colorado State, San Diego State
PAC 12 - Arizona, UCLA, Oregon, California, Colorado
SEC - Florida, Missouri
WCC - Gonzaga
20 Automatic Qualifiers from Conferences not listed above
Should Be In (3)
Villanova (18-12) - I will start with the Wildcats, who have completed their Big East regular season with a 10-8 conference mark. The resume now includes 4 Top 25 wins, a mark that almost guarantees a bid unless your RPI is unsightly, which Villanova's is not at 53 due to a SOS of 19. They will face off against St. John's or Cincinnati in the first round of the Big East tournament, neither of which would be a bad loss. Do I think they are in? Yes. Win one game in the Big East Tourney and its a lock.
Cincinnati (20-10) - The Bearcats finish the Big East season at home vs South Florida. The Bearcats actually compiled a decent non-conference resume this year, so a .500 conference record should be good enough to earn a bid this year. Things get trickier if they lose to the Bulls, which may then require a victory over Villanova in the Big East Tourney.
Temple (22-8) - The Owls have won 5 in a row after the Duquesne debacle and close the year with VCU at home. A win their is a trip to the NCAA's, but a loss there and another loss to a bottom-division team in the First Round of the A-10 Tourney would put them square on the Bubble, despite their win over Syracuse and 9 overall Top 100 wins.
Bubble (6 spots available)
St. Mary's (25-5) - The Gaels will have an interesting resume to compare to if they fail to earn the WCC automatic bid. If that loss is to Gonzaga, their RPI should not take much of a hit, putting them in solid position. The big question is, can a resume that includes a victory over Creighton and 3 over BYU but not much else get you into the dance?
Boise State (18-9) - Yes, the Broncos do play more than football. Have they played it well enough to dance? With an RPI of 44, a road win at Creighton and victories over UNLV and Colorado State, there is a lot to like about this resume. The losses to Nevada and Utah are what is holding it back a little. Their regular season finale is San Diego State at home, which is likely a win and get in scenario. Should they lose, they will see those same Aztecs on a neutral floor next week. If they get swept, it will come down to what has happened around them.
Iowa State (20-10) - The Cyclones have beaten Kansas State, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, but have some holes in their resume. More specifically, a 3-8 road record and a loss to Texas Tech, combined with just 6 Top 100 victories. They close at West Virginia, and given their road woes, that is no gimme. It looks like Oklahoma or Oklahoma State in the first round of the Big 12, so if they trip up in Morgantown, they have a tough one right away next week. It would be nice to see another quality victory here, but just getting that additional road win might be enough.
LaSalle (21-7) - The Explorers sit with just 5 Top 100 victories, a mark that typically does not get an Atlantic 10 team into the tournament. They have the big road win at VCU and home win vs Butler, as well as beating Villanova. The other black mark is the loss to Central Connecticut State. LaSalle closes at St. Louis, a tough game but one that won't do much damage to their RPI of 41. They could still secure a top 4 seed in the A-10 Tourney with a loss, landing them an initial game against Temple, UMass or Xavier. All those teams would provide an additional top 100 win
Tennessee (18-11) - The Volunteers have emerged in February, positioning them to be part of the March conversation. They have a signature win over Florida, coupled with 8 Top 100 wins. Their worst losses were a sweep by Georgia (RPI of 122) , but their best road win is Texas A&M (RPI of 93). Tennessee also has a 200 +/- of 1, so two losses to end the season would put them at -1, a mark few have gained an at-large berth with. They can probably put a bid to rest by beating Missouri at home on Saturday. If they lose, the SEC is too jumbled to have any clue how the conference tourney will look, but the Vols would need to secure one, maybe two wins their to gain comfortable status.
Virginia (20-10) - What to do about the Cavaliers? It is probably the most controversial part of the Bubble Talk right now. 7-3 vs the Top 100, with wins over Duke, North Carolina, NC State, at Wisconsin and over fellow bubbler Tennessee. 13-7 against the 101+, including a loss to Old Dominion (RPI of 318). On one hand, you want a team in the tournament capable of beating the likes that UVA has defeated, but on the other hand, can you reward a team that has lost so many bad games? The Cavs finish the regular season at home against Maryland, an opportunity for another top 100 win. With a win, they can possibly get to the #4 seed in the ACC, which would help them avoid the 5-12 game which could prove disastrous.
Iowa (19-11) - The Hawkeyes host Nebraska this weekend, a win would give them a .500 record in the Big 10 and 20 wins on the season. They have wins against Minnesota, Illinois and Wisconsin, but their best road win is Penn State (RPI of 176). The non-conference SOS of 308 brings their RPI in at 75, so there is work left to do. A win over Nebraska would give Iowa the 6 or 7 seed and a match-up with Nebraska or Northwestern. They would then have one last shot at an Ohio State or Michigan State to get that real signature win on a neutral floor.
Thursday, March 7, 2013
Field of 68 - Seed List and Bracket, March 7, 2013
After Wednesday's Action:
1 - Duke, Gonzaga, Indiana, Kansas
2 - Louisville, New Mexico, Michigan, Georgetown
3 - Miami, FL, Florida, Marquette, Michigan State
4 - Arizona, Kansas State, Ohio State, UNLV
5 - Syracuse, Oklahoma State, St. Louis, Pittsburgh
6 - Wisconsin, Butler, VCU, UCLA
7 - Memphis, Oregon, North Carolina, Minnesota
8 - NC State, Notre Dame, Colorado State, Missouri
9 - San Diego State, Oklahoma, Illinois, Creighton
10 - Colorado, California, Cincinnati, Temple
11 - Wichita State, St. Mary's, Belmont, Villanova
12 - Tennessee/LaSalle, Iowa State/Virginia, Louisiana Tech, Boise State
13 - Middle Tennessee, Akron, Bucknell, South Dakota State
14 - Valparaiso, Princeton, Stephen F Austin, Davidson
15 - Stony Brook, Montana, Robert Morris, Niagara
16 - Long Beach State, Northeastern, Mercer/Southern, Norfolk State/Charleston Southern
East
(1) Duke vs (16) Norfolk State/Charleston Southern
Philadelphia, PA
(8) Colorado State vs (9) Illinois
(5) Syracuse vs (12) LaSalle/Tennessee
Kansas City, MO
(4) Kansas State vs (13) Middle Tennessee
(6) VCU vs (11) Belmont
Dayton, OH
(3) Marquette vs (14) Stephen F Austin
(7) Memphis vs (10) Colorado
Auburn Hills, MI
(2) Michigan vs (15) Robert Morris
South
(1) Kansas vs (16) Northeastern
Kansas City, MO
(8) Notre Dame vs (9) San Diego State
(5) St. Louis vs (12) Virginia/Iowa State
Lexington, KY
(4) Ohio State vs (13) Bucknell
(6) Wisconsin vs (11) Wichita State
Austin, TX
(3) Miami, FL vs (14) Valparaiso
(7) Oregon vs (10) Temple
Dayton, OH
(2) Louisville vs (15) Stony Brook
Midwest
(1) Indiana vs (16) Mercer/Southern
Lexington, KY
(8) NC State vs (9) Creighton
(5) Oklahoma State vs (12) Louisiana Tech
San Jose, CA
(4) UNLV vs (13) Akron
(6) UCLA vs (11) St. Mary's
Austin, TX
(3) Florida vs (14) Davidson
(7) Minnesota vs (10) Cincinnati
Philadelphia, PA
(2) Georgetown vs (15) Niagara
West
(1) Gonzaga vs (16) Long Beach State
Salt Lake City, UT
(8) Missouri vs (9) Oklahoma
(5) Pittsburgh vs (12) Boise State
San Jose, CA
(4) Arizona vs (13) South Dakota State
(6) Butler vs (11) Villanova
Auburn Hills, MI
(3) Michigan State vs (14) Princeton
(7) North Carolina vs (10) California
Salt Lake City, UT
(2) New Mexico vs (15) Montanta
1 - Duke, Gonzaga, Indiana, Kansas
2 - Louisville, New Mexico, Michigan, Georgetown
3 - Miami, FL, Florida, Marquette, Michigan State
4 - Arizona, Kansas State, Ohio State, UNLV
5 - Syracuse, Oklahoma State, St. Louis, Pittsburgh
6 - Wisconsin, Butler, VCU, UCLA
7 - Memphis, Oregon, North Carolina, Minnesota
8 - NC State, Notre Dame, Colorado State, Missouri
9 - San Diego State, Oklahoma, Illinois, Creighton
10 - Colorado, California, Cincinnati, Temple
11 - Wichita State, St. Mary's, Belmont, Villanova
12 - Tennessee/LaSalle, Iowa State/Virginia, Louisiana Tech, Boise State
13 - Middle Tennessee, Akron, Bucknell, South Dakota State
14 - Valparaiso, Princeton, Stephen F Austin, Davidson
15 - Stony Brook, Montana, Robert Morris, Niagara
16 - Long Beach State, Northeastern, Mercer/Southern, Norfolk State/Charleston Southern
- Wednesday night was a dream and a nightmare in the bracketology world. The nightmare was some strange losses by teams toward the top of the bracket, including 3 of my projected 5 seeds. The dream was the work done by the Bubble squads, including huge wins for Villanova and Iowa State, plus necessary wins for LaSalle and Tennessee. So while the field got stronger, the seeding becomes a little more tricky at this point.
East
(1) Duke vs (16) Norfolk State/Charleston Southern
Philadelphia, PA
(8) Colorado State vs (9) Illinois
(5) Syracuse vs (12) LaSalle/Tennessee
Kansas City, MO
(4) Kansas State vs (13) Middle Tennessee
(6) VCU vs (11) Belmont
Dayton, OH
(3) Marquette vs (14) Stephen F Austin
(7) Memphis vs (10) Colorado
Auburn Hills, MI
(2) Michigan vs (15) Robert Morris
South
(1) Kansas vs (16) Northeastern
Kansas City, MO
(8) Notre Dame vs (9) San Diego State
(5) St. Louis vs (12) Virginia/Iowa State
Lexington, KY
(4) Ohio State vs (13) Bucknell
(6) Wisconsin vs (11) Wichita State
Austin, TX
(3) Miami, FL vs (14) Valparaiso
(7) Oregon vs (10) Temple
Dayton, OH
(2) Louisville vs (15) Stony Brook
Midwest
(1) Indiana vs (16) Mercer/Southern
Lexington, KY
(8) NC State vs (9) Creighton
(5) Oklahoma State vs (12) Louisiana Tech
San Jose, CA
(4) UNLV vs (13) Akron
(6) UCLA vs (11) St. Mary's
Austin, TX
(3) Florida vs (14) Davidson
(7) Minnesota vs (10) Cincinnati
Philadelphia, PA
(2) Georgetown vs (15) Niagara
West
(1) Gonzaga vs (16) Long Beach State
Salt Lake City, UT
(8) Missouri vs (9) Oklahoma
(5) Pittsburgh vs (12) Boise State
San Jose, CA
(4) Arizona vs (13) South Dakota State
(6) Butler vs (11) Villanova
Auburn Hills, MI
(3) Michigan State vs (14) Princeton
(7) North Carolina vs (10) California
Salt Lake City, UT
(2) New Mexico vs (15) Montanta
Wednesday, March 6, 2013
Field of 68 - Seed List and Bracket, March 6, 2013
After Tuesday's Action:
1 - Duke, Gonzaga, Indiana, Kansas
2 - Georgetown, New Mexico, Miami, FL, Louisville
3 - Florida, Michigan, Marquette, Michigan State
4 - Arizona, Kansas State, Ohio State, UNLV
5 - Syracuse, Oklahoma State, St. Louis, UCLA
6 - Wisconsin, Butler, Pittsburgh, Minnesota
7 - Memphis, VCU, Oregon, North Carolina
8 - NC State, Notre Dame, Colorado State, Missouri
9 - San Diego State, Oklahoma, California, Illinois
10 - Colorado, Creighton, Cincinnati, Temple
11 - Wichita State, Boise State, St. Mary's, Belmont
12 - Iowa State, Virginia/LaSalle, Villanova/Tennessee, Louisiana Tech
13 - Middle Tennessee, Akron, Bucknell, South Dakota State
14 - Valparaiso, Princeton, Stephen F Austin, Davidson
15 - Stony Brook, Montana, Robert Morris, Niagara
16 - Long Beach State, Northeastern, Mercer/Texas Southern, Norfolk State/Charleston Southern
East
(1) Duke vs (16) Norfolk State/Charleston Southern
Philadelphia, PA
(8) Notre Dame vs (9) Illinois
(5) Oklahoma State vs (12) Louisiana Tech
San Jose, CA
(4) UNLV vs (13) Middle Tennessee
(6) Butler vs (11) Belmont
Auburn Hills, MI
(3) Michigan vs (14) Davidson
(7) Oregon vs (10) Creighton
Dayton, OH
(2) Louisville vs (15) Robert Morris
South
(1) Kansas vs (16) Northeastern
Kansas City, MO
(8) NC State vs (9) California
(5) Syracuse vs (12) LaSalle/Tennessee
Lexington, KY
(4) Ohio State vs (13) Bucknell
(6) Minnesota vs (11) St. Mary's
Austin, TX
(3) Florida vs (14) Valparaiso
(7) VCU vs (10) Cincinnati
Salt Lake City, UT
(2) New Mexico vs (15) Montana
Midwest
(1) Indiana vs (16) Mercer/Texas Southern
Lexington, KY
(8) Missouri vs (9) San Diego State
(5) UCLA vs (12) Villanova/Virginia
Kansas City, MO
(4) Kansas State vs (13) Akron
(6) Wisconsin vs (11) Wichita State
Dayton, OH
(3) Marquette vs (14) Stephen F Austin
(7) Memphis vs (10) Temple
Austin, TX
(2) Miami, FL vs (15) Niagara
West
(1) Gonzaga vs (16) Long Beach State
Salt Lake City, UT
(8) Colorado State vs (9) Oklahoma
(5) St. Louis vs (12) Iowa State
San Jose, CA
(4) Arizona vs (13) South Dakota State
(6) Pittsburgh vs (11) Boise State
Auburn Hills, MI
(3) Michigan State vs (14) Princeton
(7) North Carolina vs (10) Colorado
Philadelphia, PA
(2) Georgetown vs (15) Stony Brook
1 - Duke, Gonzaga, Indiana, Kansas
2 - Georgetown, New Mexico, Miami, FL, Louisville
3 - Florida, Michigan, Marquette, Michigan State
4 - Arizona, Kansas State, Ohio State, UNLV
5 - Syracuse, Oklahoma State, St. Louis, UCLA
6 - Wisconsin, Butler, Pittsburgh, Minnesota
7 - Memphis, VCU, Oregon, North Carolina
8 - NC State, Notre Dame, Colorado State, Missouri
9 - San Diego State, Oklahoma, California, Illinois
10 - Colorado, Creighton, Cincinnati, Temple
11 - Wichita State, Boise State, St. Mary's, Belmont
12 - Iowa State, Virginia/LaSalle, Villanova/Tennessee, Louisiana Tech
13 - Middle Tennessee, Akron, Bucknell, South Dakota State
14 - Valparaiso, Princeton, Stephen F Austin, Davidson
15 - Stony Brook, Montana, Robert Morris, Niagara
16 - Long Beach State, Northeastern, Mercer/Texas Southern, Norfolk State/Charleston Southern
- I'll start with Indiana. It seems everyone thinks they are the best team, but they continue to give reasons to the contrary. Their RPI sits dangerously at 9 and they are in danger of losing out on Indianapolis. That being said, a road win at Michigan this weekend gives them the outright Big 10 Title and an 8th Top 25 win. That should lock up a #1 seed regardless of the Big 10 Tourney. Lose to Michigan, and its a whole different story.
- Ohio State was the beneficiary and filled the quality road win hole on their resume. The Buckeyes still only have 7 Top 100 wins, but the quality of those wins is better than the teams just below them. They can also share the Big 10 Title with a win and a Michigan win over Indiana, something that can not be discounted.
- I bumped Syracuse back to a 5 seed, but they can reclaim the #4 line with a win against Georgetown this weekend. Otherwise, the 5 line seems like where they should be.
East
(1) Duke vs (16) Norfolk State/Charleston Southern
Philadelphia, PA
(8) Notre Dame vs (9) Illinois
(5) Oklahoma State vs (12) Louisiana Tech
San Jose, CA
(4) UNLV vs (13) Middle Tennessee
(6) Butler vs (11) Belmont
Auburn Hills, MI
(3) Michigan vs (14) Davidson
(7) Oregon vs (10) Creighton
Dayton, OH
(2) Louisville vs (15) Robert Morris
South
(1) Kansas vs (16) Northeastern
Kansas City, MO
(8) NC State vs (9) California
(5) Syracuse vs (12) LaSalle/Tennessee
Lexington, KY
(4) Ohio State vs (13) Bucknell
(6) Minnesota vs (11) St. Mary's
Austin, TX
(3) Florida vs (14) Valparaiso
(7) VCU vs (10) Cincinnati
Salt Lake City, UT
(2) New Mexico vs (15) Montana
Midwest
(1) Indiana vs (16) Mercer/Texas Southern
Lexington, KY
(8) Missouri vs (9) San Diego State
(5) UCLA vs (12) Villanova/Virginia
Kansas City, MO
(4) Kansas State vs (13) Akron
(6) Wisconsin vs (11) Wichita State
Dayton, OH
(3) Marquette vs (14) Stephen F Austin
(7) Memphis vs (10) Temple
Austin, TX
(2) Miami, FL vs (15) Niagara
West
(1) Gonzaga vs (16) Long Beach State
Salt Lake City, UT
(8) Colorado State vs (9) Oklahoma
(5) St. Louis vs (12) Iowa State
San Jose, CA
(4) Arizona vs (13) South Dakota State
(6) Pittsburgh vs (11) Boise State
Auburn Hills, MI
(3) Michigan State vs (14) Princeton
(7) North Carolina vs (10) Colorado
Philadelphia, PA
(2) Georgetown vs (15) Stony Brook
Tuesday, March 5, 2013
Field of 68 - Seed List and Bracket, March 5, 2013
After Monday's Action:
1 - Indiana, Duke, Gonzaga, Kansas
2 - Georgetown, New Mexico, Miami, FL, Louisville
3 - Florida, Michigan, Marquette, Michigan State
4 - Arizona, Kansas State, Syracuse, Oklahoma State
5 - UNLV, Ohio State, St. Louis, UCLA
6 - Wisconsin, Butler, Pittsburgh, Minnesota
7 - Illinois, Memphis, VCU, Oregon
8 - NC State, Notre Dame, Colorado State, North Carolina
9 - San Diego State, Oklahoma, Missouri, California
10 - Colorado, Creighton, Cincinnati, Temple
11 - Wichita State, Boise State, St. Mary's, Belmont
12 - Iowa State, Virginia/LaSalle, Villanova/Tennessee, Louisiana Tech
13 - Middle Tennessee, Akron, Bucknell, South Dakota State
14 - Valparaiso, Princeton, Stephen F Austin, Davidson
15 - Stony Brook, Montana, Robert Morris, Niagara
16 - Long Beach State, Northeastern, Mercer/Texas Southern, Norfolk State/Charleston Southern
(1) Duke vs (16) Norfolk State/Charleston Southern
Philadelphia, PA
(8) Notre Dame vs (9) California
(5) UNLV vs (12) Louisiana Tech
San Jose, CA
(4) Oklahoma State vs (13) Middle Tennessee
(6) Butler vs (11) Belmont
Auburn Hills, MI
(3) Michigan vs (14) Davidson
(7) Oregon vs (10) Creighton
Dayton, OH
(2) Louisville vs (15) Robert Morris
South
(1) Kansas vs (16) Northeastern
Kansas City, MO
(8) NC State vs (9) San Diego State
(5) Ohio State vs (12) LaSalle/Virginia
Lexington, KY
(4) Syracuse vs (13) Bucknell
(6) Minnesota vs (11) St. Mary's
Austin, TX
(3) Florida vs (14) Valparaiso
(7) VCU vs (10) Cincinnati
Salt Lake City, UT
(2) New Mexico vs (15) Montana
Midwest
(1) Indiana vs (16) Mercer/Texas Southern
Lexington, KY
(8) Colorado State vs (9) Missouri
(5) UCLA vs (12) Villanova/Tennessee
Kansas City, MO
(4) Kansas State vs (13) Akron
(6) Wisconsin vs (11) Wichita State
Dayton, OH
(3) Marquette vs (14) Stephen F Austin
(7) Memphis vs (10) Temple
Austin, TX
(2) Miami, FL vs (15) Niagara
West
(1) Gonzaga vs (16) Long Beach State
Salt Lake City, UT
(8) North Carolina vs (9) Oklahoma
(5) St. Louis vs (12) Iowa State
San Jose, CA
(4) Arizona vs (13) South Dakota State
(6) Pittsburgh vs (11) Boise State
Auburn Hills, MI
(3) Michigan State vs (14) Princeton
(7) Illinois vs (10) Colorado
Philadelphia, PA
(2) Georgetown vs (15) Stony Brook
1 - Indiana, Duke, Gonzaga, Kansas
2 - Georgetown, New Mexico, Miami, FL, Louisville
3 - Florida, Michigan, Marquette, Michigan State
4 - Arizona, Kansas State, Syracuse, Oklahoma State
5 - UNLV, Ohio State, St. Louis, UCLA
6 - Wisconsin, Butler, Pittsburgh, Minnesota
7 - Illinois, Memphis, VCU, Oregon
8 - NC State, Notre Dame, Colorado State, North Carolina
9 - San Diego State, Oklahoma, Missouri, California
10 - Colorado, Creighton, Cincinnati, Temple
11 - Wichita State, Boise State, St. Mary's, Belmont
12 - Iowa State, Virginia/LaSalle, Villanova/Tennessee, Louisiana Tech
13 - Middle Tennessee, Akron, Bucknell, South Dakota State
14 - Valparaiso, Princeton, Stephen F Austin, Davidson
15 - Stony Brook, Montana, Robert Morris, Niagara
16 - Long Beach State, Northeastern, Mercer/Texas Southern, Norfolk State/Charleston Southern
- Two weeks to go and there is nothing settled. I believe the 4 teams on the #1 line will be there if they win out. The only question would be if Georgetown wins out, how their final resume would match-up with Gonzaga or Kansas. The ceiling for New Mexico is probably a 2, but has anyone noticed they have 4 more top 100 wins than any other team? Louisville is streaking and I count the loss to Duke as .5 because it was with out Gorgui Dieng. That is enough to get them ahead of Florida and Michigan.
- Teams that could use some additional top 100 wins to maintain their current spot would be Michigan State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Ohio State and Butler.
- Conference tournaments start today, so the watch for Bubble Shrinkers and the Annual Weakening of the 14-16 seeds starts.
(1) Duke vs (16) Norfolk State/Charleston Southern
Philadelphia, PA
(8) Notre Dame vs (9) California
(5) UNLV vs (12) Louisiana Tech
San Jose, CA
(4) Oklahoma State vs (13) Middle Tennessee
(6) Butler vs (11) Belmont
Auburn Hills, MI
(3) Michigan vs (14) Davidson
(7) Oregon vs (10) Creighton
Dayton, OH
(2) Louisville vs (15) Robert Morris
South
(1) Kansas vs (16) Northeastern
Kansas City, MO
(8) NC State vs (9) San Diego State
(5) Ohio State vs (12) LaSalle/Virginia
Lexington, KY
(4) Syracuse vs (13) Bucknell
(6) Minnesota vs (11) St. Mary's
Austin, TX
(3) Florida vs (14) Valparaiso
(7) VCU vs (10) Cincinnati
Salt Lake City, UT
(2) New Mexico vs (15) Montana
Midwest
(1) Indiana vs (16) Mercer/Texas Southern
Lexington, KY
(8) Colorado State vs (9) Missouri
(5) UCLA vs (12) Villanova/Tennessee
Kansas City, MO
(4) Kansas State vs (13) Akron
(6) Wisconsin vs (11) Wichita State
Dayton, OH
(3) Marquette vs (14) Stephen F Austin
(7) Memphis vs (10) Temple
Austin, TX
(2) Miami, FL vs (15) Niagara
West
(1) Gonzaga vs (16) Long Beach State
Salt Lake City, UT
(8) North Carolina vs (9) Oklahoma
(5) St. Louis vs (12) Iowa State
San Jose, CA
(4) Arizona vs (13) South Dakota State
(6) Pittsburgh vs (11) Boise State
Auburn Hills, MI
(3) Michigan State vs (14) Princeton
(7) Illinois vs (10) Colorado
Philadelphia, PA
(2) Georgetown vs (15) Stony Brook
Friday, March 1, 2013
Field of 68 - Seed List and Bracket, March 1, 2013
After Thursday's Action:
1 - Indiana, Gonzaga, Miami, FL, Duke
2 - Kansas, Georgetown, Florida, New Mexico
3 - Louisville, Michigan, Michigan State, Arizona
4 - Syracuse, Kansas State, Wisconsin, Marquette
5 - UNLV, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, St. Louis
6 - Colorado State, Butler, Notre Dame, Minnesota
7 - Illinois, Pittsburgh, UCLA, Memphis
8 - Oregon, NC State, Colorado, VCU
9 - San Diego State, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Missouri
10 - Wichita State, Cincinnati, California, Temple
11 - Creighton, Iowa State, Belmont, Villanova
12 - LaSalle, St. Mary's/Kentucky, Virginia/Tennessee, Middle Tennessee
13 - Louisiana Tech, Akron, Bucknell, South Dakota State
14 - Valparaiso, Harvard, Stephen F Austin, Davidson
15 - Stony Brook, Montana, Robert Morris, Niagara
16 - Long Beach State, Northeastern, Mercer/Norfolk State, Southern/Charleston Southern
(1) Duke vs (16) Northeastern
Philadelphia, PA
(8) Oregon vs (9) San Diego State
(5) Oklahoma State vs (12) LaSalle
San Jose, CA
(4) Marquette vs (13) South Dakota State
(6) Notre Dame vs (11) Creighton
Auburn Hills, MI
(3) Michigan State vs (14) Harvard
(7) Memphis vs (10) Wichita State
Austin, TX
(2) Florida vs (15) Niagara
South
(1) Miami, FL vs (16) Norflok State/Charleston Southern
Lexington, KY
(8) VCU vs (9) Missouri
(5) UNLV vs (12) Middle Tennessee
Austin, TX
(4) Wisconsin vs (13) Akron
(6) Minnesota vs (11) Belmont
Dayton, OH
(3) Louisville vs (14) Stephen F Austin
(7) UCLA vs (10) Cincinnati
Kansas City, MO
(2) Kansas vs (15) Robert Morris
Midwest
(1) Indiana vs (16) Mercer/Southern
Dayton, OH
(8) NC State vs (9) Oklahoma
(5) St. Louis vs (12) Tennessee/St. Mary's
Lexington, KY
(4) Syracuse vs (13) Bucknell
(6) Colorado State vs (11) Iowa State
San Jose, CA
(3) Arizona vs (14) Valparaiso
(7) Illinois vs (10) Temple
Philadelphia, PA
(2) Georgetown vs (15) Stony Brook
West
(1) Gonzaga vs (16) Long Beach State
Salt Lake City, UT
(8) Colorado vs (9) North Carolina
(5) Ohio State vs (12) Kentucky/Virginia
Kansas City, MO
(4) Kansas State vs (13) Louisiana Tech
(6) Butler vs (11) Villanova
Auburn Hills, MI
(3) Michigan vs (14) Davidson
(7) Pittsburgh vs (10) California
Salt Lake City, UT
(2) New Mexico vs (15) Montana
1 - Indiana, Gonzaga, Miami, FL, Duke
2 - Kansas, Georgetown, Florida, New Mexico
3 - Louisville, Michigan, Michigan State, Arizona
4 - Syracuse, Kansas State, Wisconsin, Marquette
5 - UNLV, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, St. Louis
6 - Colorado State, Butler, Notre Dame, Minnesota
7 - Illinois, Pittsburgh, UCLA, Memphis
8 - Oregon, NC State, Colorado, VCU
9 - San Diego State, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Missouri
10 - Wichita State, Cincinnati, California, Temple
11 - Creighton, Iowa State, Belmont, Villanova
12 - LaSalle, St. Mary's/Kentucky, Virginia/Tennessee, Middle Tennessee
13 - Louisiana Tech, Akron, Bucknell, South Dakota State
14 - Valparaiso, Harvard, Stephen F Austin, Davidson
15 - Stony Brook, Montana, Robert Morris, Niagara
16 - Long Beach State, Northeastern, Mercer/Norfolk State, Southern/Charleston Southern
- A quiet Thursday as far as any bracket shuffling, with only Oregon moving up. Dominic Artis returned for the Ducks last evening, although he did not start. The Ducks were 5-4 without Artis and are now 18-2 with him in the line-up. If they can win at Colorado and at Utah and at least share the PAC-12 Title, they should benefit from an injury-related seed bump.
- Virginia got a signature win and continues to have the most polarizing resume out there. If I am on the committee and it comes down to a team with a bunch of really good wins and some really bad losses vs a team with nothing special for wins and no bad losses, I take the team who has proven they can beat somebody when the tournament starts.
- This weekend is a beautiful weekend of College Basketball...Harvard at Princeton, Louisville at Syracuse, Butler at VCU, Iowa State at Oklahoma, Notre Dame at Marquette, Wichita State at Creighton, Connecticut at Cincinnati, Kentucky at Arkansas, Tennessee at Gerogia, Colorado at California, Miami, FL at Duke, Kansas State at Baylor, Colorado State at Boise State, Arizona at UCLA, Villanova at Pittsburgh and Michigan State at Michigan.
(1) Duke vs (16) Northeastern
Philadelphia, PA
(8) Oregon vs (9) San Diego State
(5) Oklahoma State vs (12) LaSalle
San Jose, CA
(4) Marquette vs (13) South Dakota State
(6) Notre Dame vs (11) Creighton
Auburn Hills, MI
(3) Michigan State vs (14) Harvard
(7) Memphis vs (10) Wichita State
Austin, TX
(2) Florida vs (15) Niagara
South
(1) Miami, FL vs (16) Norflok State/Charleston Southern
Lexington, KY
(8) VCU vs (9) Missouri
(5) UNLV vs (12) Middle Tennessee
Austin, TX
(4) Wisconsin vs (13) Akron
(6) Minnesota vs (11) Belmont
Dayton, OH
(3) Louisville vs (14) Stephen F Austin
(7) UCLA vs (10) Cincinnati
Kansas City, MO
(2) Kansas vs (15) Robert Morris
Midwest
(1) Indiana vs (16) Mercer/Southern
Dayton, OH
(8) NC State vs (9) Oklahoma
(5) St. Louis vs (12) Tennessee/St. Mary's
Lexington, KY
(4) Syracuse vs (13) Bucknell
(6) Colorado State vs (11) Iowa State
San Jose, CA
(3) Arizona vs (14) Valparaiso
(7) Illinois vs (10) Temple
Philadelphia, PA
(2) Georgetown vs (15) Stony Brook
West
(1) Gonzaga vs (16) Long Beach State
Salt Lake City, UT
(8) Colorado vs (9) North Carolina
(5) Ohio State vs (12) Kentucky/Virginia
Kansas City, MO
(4) Kansas State vs (13) Louisiana Tech
(6) Butler vs (11) Villanova
Auburn Hills, MI
(3) Michigan vs (14) Davidson
(7) Pittsburgh vs (10) California
Salt Lake City, UT
(2) New Mexico vs (15) Montana
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