Season Record: 233-196-6 (ATS) 333-102 (Straight-Up)
Last Week: 26-22-1 (ATS) 38-11 (Straight-Up)
I was rolling along last week until Saturday Night, missing on the last 7 games of the night to ruin a really good week. Time to pay more attention to those games.
WEEK 12 PICKS
Bowling Green (-9.5) 31, Ohio 17 (W)
Buffalo (+3.5) 35, Toledo 34 (L)
Northern Illinois (-6.5) 41, Ball State 31 (W)
Kent State (-17.5) 38, Miami, OH 13 (W)
Central Michigan (-2) 34, Western Michigan 27 (W)
Akron (-6.5) 27, Massachusetts 17 (L)
Interesting week in the MAC, where the match-ups are better than usual. The favorite is 26-9 in MAC conference games, a 74% clip. I am picking Buffalo as my one underdog. The Bulls look like the best team in the MAC East and Toledo is horrible on both Tuesdays and off bye weeks. No slam dunks here this week in the MAC though.
Clemson 34, Georgia Tech (+11) 31 (L)
Duke (+3.5) 31, Miami, FL 27 (W)
Virginia Tech 27, Maryland (+16) 14 (W)
Boston College (-7.5) 34, NC State 20 (W)
Pittburgh (-1) 31, North Carolina 26 (L)
Florida State (-37.5) 52, Syracuse 10 (W)
If it wasn't Thursday Night, I might have gone with Clemson, but Georgia Tech often gives them fits as it is. Virginia Tech exploded offensively last week, but can they prove it two weeks in a row? I will continue to go with Florida State until they prove otherwise, but the potential Jameis Winston distraction would be a reason to go with the 'Cuse.
Marshall 38, Tulsa (+12.5) 31 (W)
Florida Atlantic (-17) 35, Southern Miss 13 (W)
East Carolina 41, UAB (+28) 20 (L)
Rice (-15.5) 34, Lousiana Tech 14 (W)
UTEP 14, FIU (+5.5) 13 (L)
Big numbers for Rice and FAU to cover, but I like both this week. Conversely, the C-USA top teams in Marshall and Eat Carolina may have a tough time covering their number. Marshall is not a good road team and has to prove it to me. Finally, when two really really bad teams play, I have to take the points.
UCLA (-2.5) 35, Washington 23 (W)
California (+2) 30, Colorado 24 (L)
Arizona State (-14) 44, Oregon State 20 (L)
Oregon 43, Utah (+26) 21 (W)
Stanford (-3.5) 24, USC 17 (L)
Arizona 33, Washington State (+11) 27 (W)
Arizona State owes me and is really good at home. Washington has struggled on the road and thus that seems like a small number for UCLA. How can you go wrong with Stanford at this point? Marcus Mariota's injury takes a little explosiveness out of the Ducks.
Vanderbilt (-11.5) 37, Kentucky 17 (W)
South Carolina (-12.5) 31, Florida 9 (L)
Auburn (-3) 38, Georgia 28 (W)
Alabama (-23) 49, Mississippi State 17 (L)
All favorites in the SEC this week. Vandy has recovered nicely this year and should handle Kentucky. Florida's offense is in further shambles. Auburn and Alabama are cruising toward their meeting.
Louisville 38, Houston (+16) 33 (W)
Cincinnati (pick 'em) 27, Rutgers 21 (W)
UCF 34, Temple (+17) 24 (W)
SMU (-15.5) 45, Connecticut 21 (W)
Memphis (-1.5) 24, South Florida 20 (W)
Houston seems to get no respect. I will respect them. I buy Cincinnati more than I do Rutgers. Temple has been much better lately and could be overlooked by UCF. Connecticut is just not good, especially on the road.
Penn State 27, Purdue (+21.5) 10 (L)
Northwestern (-3) 29, Michigan 21 (L)
Michigan State (-6) 23, Nebraska 10 (W)
Ohio State 44, Illinois (+33.5) 19 (W)
I am banking on the State of Michigan trends...Michigan State up, Michigan down. I am also crazy for wanting points with both Purdue and Illinois.
Louisiana-Lafayette 34, Georgia State (+21.5) 19 (W)
Navy 35, South Alabama (+7) 31 (L)
Arkansas State (-7) 33, Texas State 17 (W)
Ole Miss 48, Troy (+28) 28 (L)
I was 0-fer on the Sun Belt last week, so be warned. Georgia State has an uncanny way of just covering the point spread. I also feel like Arkansas State has re-established themselves as one of the best in the Belt after a slow start.
Boise State 41, Wyoming (+23) 26 (L)
San Jose State (-7) 35, Nevada 24 (L)
Colorado State 38, New Mexico (+6.5) 35 (L)
San Diego State (-4) 41, Hawaii 34 (W)
In the high-flying Mountain West, it seems anything can happen. With 3 lines right around a TD, these games could go either way. I like all the favorites to win, but was least confident with CSU on the road this week. I also still don't love Boise State's defense enough to cover the higher number.
West Virginia (-6.5) 31, Kansas 16 (L)
Baylor (-28) 66, Texas Tech 31 (W)
Oklahoma State (-3) 37, Texas 27 (W)
Oklahoma 31, Iowas State (+23.5) 13 (L)
Kansas State (-10) 30, TCU 10 (L)
Some feel West Virginia will lay an egg, but with bowl-eligibility on the line, I think they take care of Kansas. Oklahoma's quarterback issues make their line a little high for me. Kansas State is rolling along and TCU is not. Finally, I don't love Oklahoma State on the road in this spot, but sometimes you have to pick a game the way you want it to go.
Record this week: 28-21 ATS (40-9 SU)
Record this season: 261-217-6 ATS (373-111 SU)