1. Arizona – PAC-12 is deep, but Wildcats may not have been properly tested in 2014 going into March.
2. Syracuse – ACC teams, meet the Syracuse zone. Good luck.
3. Wichita State – As long as they are undefeated and bolster a top 10 RPI, they deserve this spot.
4. Florida – Florida beat Kansas, plus both losses came at less than full strength
5. Michigan State – The injury to Payne will be considered once he is back – great win at Iowa
6. Kansas – With losses to teams #4, #7 and #9 on this list, hard to put them in front of them all when best team they beat is #12
7. Villanova – Don’t read much into a loss to a team that had a historic shooting night.
8. Michigan - Road wins @Minnesota, @Wisconsin and @Michigan State are unmatched
9. San Diego State – A 3 seed seems more appropriate based on RPI and other ratings
10. Creighton – Doug McDermott - POY
11. Duke – Filled in the last resume hole with a great road win at Pittsburgh. Next up - at Syracuse
12. Cincinnati – Big road win at Louisville proves Bearcats are for real. I believe SOS is deceptively low.
13. Wisconsin – Woeful shooting night in surprise home loss to Northwestern, profile still strong enough, for now
14. Oklahoma State – Something is keeping this team from being elite
15. Iowa State – Swept by Kansas, but almost every Big 12 team will say that
16. Oklahoma – There is not much discernible difference between OK State, Iowa State, the Sooners and even Texas
17. Iowa – The Hawkeyes are now 0-5 vs the Top 13 on this list
18. Texas – After comparing resumes, it was hard to keep Texas below Kentucky
19. Virginia – Still lack that elite win, but sweep of Florida State and no bad losses is still a good start.
20. UCLA – Another riser in the Field, the Bruins are staking claim as 2nd best in a deep PAC-12
21. Louisville – The loss at home to Cincinnati is a step backwards for a team lacking opportunities
22. Connecticut – Revenge is nice, but it was still only Houston
23. Kentucky – How do they have a top 5 SOS playing only 3 games against the top 50? 4 losses outside the top 50 seem to be ignored?
24. Massachusetts – While St. Bonaventure is not a bad loss, it continue to muddle a deceptive resume
25. Pittsburgh – At some point, the ratings mean nothing if you don’t really beat anyone of consequence
26. St. Louis – A Pitt-like resume…lacking good wins, but losses are to teams #3 and #10 above.
27. Memphis – Wins over Oklahoma State and at Louisville prop up the Tigers resume. All 4 losses to top 38.
28. Minnesota - Fell victim to Nebraska, but still have some really nice wins
29. Gonzaga – The WCC is a bit down this year, which isn’t helping the Zags.
30. Xavier – The Musketeers are Sooner-like in hype, but their 9 top-100 wins is only one behind the top total.
31. Kansas State – Like the Gophers, K-State has 2 top 25 wins, 4 in the top 30.
32. George Washington – The Colonials have that top-10 win vs Creighton and beat VCU.
33. New Mexico – A “nice” resume, but I actually thought they would be better this season.
34. VCU – All three top 100 wins are on the road. Have 5 home games remaining against top 100.
35. Ohio State – The best thing this resume had going for it was the lack of losses, now those are adding up
36. North Carolina – Have the Tar Heels turned the corner?
37. Providence – Not a terrible loss at Marquette, hardly negates a couple really good weeks of work for the Friars
38. Florida State – 7 losses makes this resume start to border on bubblicious
39. Colorado – The early-season success will fade if they can't finish well
40. Missouri – The Tigers have played a bad schedule and have bad losses to boot.
41. Tennessee – The Volunteers hang on for dear life based on their wins and SOS.
42. Arizona State – Beat Cal at their place, take their spot in the Field
43. Stanford – Sometimes showing well in a loss goes noticed as well
44. LSU – Reward the Tigers for a good win against Kentucky, must beat Arkansas this weekend to stay
45. Oregon – The victories are not that great to offset a 2-6 conference start.
46. Richmond – I will leave the Spiders in for now, but a loss at VCU will open this spot
47. SMU – South Florida is a bad loss, but the Mustangs hang on to the last spot
48. Southern Miss
49. Harvard
50. Toledo
51. Green Bay
52. North Dakota State
53. New Mexico State
54. Mercer
55. Belmont
56. UC-Santa Barbara
57. Boston U.
58. Delaware
59. Canisius
60. Stephen F. Austin
61. Georgia State
62. North Carolina Central
63. Weber State
64. Stony Brook
65. Robert Morris
66. Davidson
67. Southern U.
68. Coastal Carolina
Follow Jabesblog on twitter @jabesblog3000
Friday, January 31, 2014
Thursday, January 30, 2014
College Basketball 2013-14 Field of 68 (January 30, 2014)
1. Arizona – PAC-12 is deep, but Wildcats may not have been properly tested in 2014 going into March.
2. Syracuse – ACC teams, meet the Syracuse zone. Good luck.
3. Wichita State – As long as they are undefeated and bolster a top 10 RPI, they deserve this spot.
4. Florida – Florida beat Kansas, plus both losses came at less than full strength
5. Michigan State – The injury to Payne will be considered once he is back – great win at Iowa
6. Kansas – With losses to teams #4, #7 and #9 on this list, hard to put them in front of them all when best team they beat is #12
7. Villanova – Don’t read much into a loss to a team that had a historic shooting night.
8. Michigan - Road wins @Minnesota, @Wisconsin and @Michigan State are unmatched
9. San Diego State – A 3 seed seems more appropriate based on RPI and other ratings
10. Creighton – Doug McDermott - POY
11. Duke – Filled in the last resume hole with a great road win at Pittsburgh. Next up - at Syracuse
12. Wisconsin – Woeful shooting night in surprise home loss to Northwestern, profile still strong enough to stay a 3
13. Cincinnati – Bearcats play elite defense and have won 12 in a row, but last 6 against inferior teams. Louisville next.
14. Oklahoma State – Something is keeping this team from being elite
15. Iowa State – Swept by Kansas, but almost every Big 12 team will say that
16. Oklahoma – There is not much discernible difference between OK State, Iowa State, the Sooners and even Texas
17. Louisville – An adjustment was made back a line, but a victory over Cincinnati might make it moot
18. Iowa – The Hawkeyes are now 0-5 vs the Top 13 on this list
19. Virginia – Still lack that elite win, but sweep of Florida State and no bad losses is still a good start.
20. Texas – After comparing resumes, it was hard to keep Texas below Kentucky
21. Kentucky – How do they have a top 5 SOS playing only 3 games against the top 50? 4 losses outside the top 50 seem to be ignored?
22. Connecticut – I like the Huskies more than others right now. They have a nice group of wins.
23. Massachusetts – While St. Bonaventure is not a bad loss, it continue to muddle a deceptive resume
24. Pittsburgh – At some point, the ratings mean nothing if you don’t really beat anyone of consequence
25. UCLA - Warming up a little more to the Bruins and the PAC-12 has to have a 2nd best
26. St. Louis – A Pitt-like resume…lacking good wins, but losses are to teams #3 and #10 above.
27. Memphis – Wins over Oklahoma State and at Louisville prop up the Tigers resume. All 4 losses to top 38.
28. Minnesota - Fell victim to Nebraska, but still have some really nice wins
29. Gonzaga – The WCC is a bit down this year, which isn’t helping the Zags.
30. Xavier – The Musketeers are Sooner-like in hype, but their 9 top-100 wins is only one behind the top total.
31. Kansas State – Like the Gophers, K-State has 2 top 25 wins, 4 in the top 30.
32. George Washington – The Colonials have that top-10 win vs Creighton and beat VCU.
33. New Mexico – A “nice” resume, but I actually thought they would be better this season.
34. VCU – All three top 100 wins are on the road. Have 5 home games remaining against top 100.
35. Ohio State – The best thing this resume had going for it was the lack of losses, now those are adding up
36. Providence – Another nice win vs Xavier makes them more comfortable.
37. North Carolina – Have the Tar Heels turned the corner?
38. Florida State – 7 losses makes this resume start to border on bubblicious
39. Colorado – The early-season success will fade if they can't finish well
40. Oregon – The victories are not that great to offset a 1-5 conference start.
41. Missouri – The Tigers have played a bad schedule and have bad losses to boot.
42. Tennessee – The Volunteers hang on for dear life based on their wins and SOS.
43. Stanford – Sometimes showing well in a loss goes noticed as well
44. LSU – Reward the Tigers for a good win against Kentucky, must beat Arkansas this weekend to stay
45. Arizona State – Beat Cal at their place, take their spot in the Field
46. Richmond – I will leave the Spiders in for now, but a loss at VCU will open this spot
47. SMU – South Florida is a bad loss, but the Mustangs hang on to the last spot
48. Southern Miss
49. Harvard
50. Toledo
51. Green Bay
52. North Dakota State
53. New Mexico State
54. Mercer
55. Belmont
56. Boston U.
57. Delaware
58. Canisius
59. Stephen F. Austin
60. Georgia State
61. UC-Irvine
62. Northern Colorado
63. North Carolina Central
64. Stony Brook
65. Robert Morris
66. Southern U.
67. Coastal Carolina
68. Chattanooga
2. Syracuse – ACC teams, meet the Syracuse zone. Good luck.
3. Wichita State – As long as they are undefeated and bolster a top 10 RPI, they deserve this spot.
4. Florida – Florida beat Kansas, plus both losses came at less than full strength
5. Michigan State – The injury to Payne will be considered once he is back – great win at Iowa
6. Kansas – With losses to teams #4, #7 and #9 on this list, hard to put them in front of them all when best team they beat is #12
7. Villanova – Don’t read much into a loss to a team that had a historic shooting night.
8. Michigan - Road wins @Minnesota, @Wisconsin and @Michigan State are unmatched
9. San Diego State – A 3 seed seems more appropriate based on RPI and other ratings
10. Creighton – Doug McDermott - POY
11. Duke – Filled in the last resume hole with a great road win at Pittsburgh. Next up - at Syracuse
12. Wisconsin – Woeful shooting night in surprise home loss to Northwestern, profile still strong enough to stay a 3
13. Cincinnati – Bearcats play elite defense and have won 12 in a row, but last 6 against inferior teams. Louisville next.
14. Oklahoma State – Something is keeping this team from being elite
15. Iowa State – Swept by Kansas, but almost every Big 12 team will say that
16. Oklahoma – There is not much discernible difference between OK State, Iowa State, the Sooners and even Texas
17. Louisville – An adjustment was made back a line, but a victory over Cincinnati might make it moot
18. Iowa – The Hawkeyes are now 0-5 vs the Top 13 on this list
19. Virginia – Still lack that elite win, but sweep of Florida State and no bad losses is still a good start.
20. Texas – After comparing resumes, it was hard to keep Texas below Kentucky
21. Kentucky – How do they have a top 5 SOS playing only 3 games against the top 50? 4 losses outside the top 50 seem to be ignored?
22. Connecticut – I like the Huskies more than others right now. They have a nice group of wins.
23. Massachusetts – While St. Bonaventure is not a bad loss, it continue to muddle a deceptive resume
24. Pittsburgh – At some point, the ratings mean nothing if you don’t really beat anyone of consequence
25. UCLA - Warming up a little more to the Bruins and the PAC-12 has to have a 2nd best
26. St. Louis – A Pitt-like resume…lacking good wins, but losses are to teams #3 and #10 above.
27. Memphis – Wins over Oklahoma State and at Louisville prop up the Tigers resume. All 4 losses to top 38.
28. Minnesota - Fell victim to Nebraska, but still have some really nice wins
29. Gonzaga – The WCC is a bit down this year, which isn’t helping the Zags.
30. Xavier – The Musketeers are Sooner-like in hype, but their 9 top-100 wins is only one behind the top total.
31. Kansas State – Like the Gophers, K-State has 2 top 25 wins, 4 in the top 30.
32. George Washington – The Colonials have that top-10 win vs Creighton and beat VCU.
33. New Mexico – A “nice” resume, but I actually thought they would be better this season.
34. VCU – All three top 100 wins are on the road. Have 5 home games remaining against top 100.
35. Ohio State – The best thing this resume had going for it was the lack of losses, now those are adding up
36. Providence – Another nice win vs Xavier makes them more comfortable.
37. North Carolina – Have the Tar Heels turned the corner?
38. Florida State – 7 losses makes this resume start to border on bubblicious
39. Colorado – The early-season success will fade if they can't finish well
40. Oregon – The victories are not that great to offset a 1-5 conference start.
41. Missouri – The Tigers have played a bad schedule and have bad losses to boot.
42. Tennessee – The Volunteers hang on for dear life based on their wins and SOS.
43. Stanford – Sometimes showing well in a loss goes noticed as well
44. LSU – Reward the Tigers for a good win against Kentucky, must beat Arkansas this weekend to stay
45. Arizona State – Beat Cal at their place, take their spot in the Field
46. Richmond – I will leave the Spiders in for now, but a loss at VCU will open this spot
47. SMU – South Florida is a bad loss, but the Mustangs hang on to the last spot
48. Southern Miss
49. Harvard
50. Toledo
51. Green Bay
52. North Dakota State
53. New Mexico State
54. Mercer
55. Belmont
56. Boston U.
57. Delaware
58. Canisius
59. Stephen F. Austin
60. Georgia State
61. UC-Irvine
62. Northern Colorado
63. North Carolina Central
64. Stony Brook
65. Robert Morris
66. Southern U.
67. Coastal Carolina
68. Chattanooga
Wednesday, January 29, 2014
College Basketball 2013-14 Field of 68 (January 29, 2014 edition)
Updated Seed List after Tuesday's games....
1. Arizona – PAC-12 is deep, but Wildcats may not have been properly tested in 2014 going into March.
2. Syracuse – ACC teams, meet the Syracuse zone. Good luck.
3. Wichita State – As long as they are undefeated and bolster a top 10 RPI, they deserve this spot.
4. Florida – Florida beat Kansas, plus both losses came at less than full strength
5. Michigan State – The injury to Payne will be considered once he is back – great win at Iowa
6. Kansas – With losses to teams #4, #7 and #9 on this list, hard to put them in front of them all when best team they beat is #12
7. Villanova – Don’t read much into a loss to a team that had a historic shooting night.
8. Michigan - Road wins @Minnesota, @Wisconsin and @Michigan State are unmatched
9. San Diego State – A 3 seed seems more appropriate based on RPI and other ratings
10. Wisconsin – Despite the 3 straight losses and horrid defense, the Badgers still have a top profile.
11. Creighton – Doug McDermott - POY
12. Duke – Filled in the last resume hole with a great road win at Pittsburgh. Next up - at Syracuse
13. Iowa State – Need to stop the bleeding vs Kansas State Saturday or the losing streak might not end.
14. Cincinnati – Bearcats play elite defense and have won 12 in a row, but last 6 against inferior teams.
15. Oklahoma State – Something is keeping this team from being elite
16. Louisville – I jumped UMass with the Cardinals, but my gut says the committee would lean this way
17. Massachusetts – Best win is New Mexico, likely headed further down the seed list as gaudy RPI drops
18. Oklahoma – A team nobody is talking about, the Sooners continue to rise.
19. Iowa – The Hawkeyes are now 0-5 vs the Top 13 on this list
20. Virginia – Still lack that elite win, but sweep of Florida State and no bad losses is still a good start.
21. Texas – After comparing resumes, it was hard to keep Texas below Kentucky
22. Kentucky – How do they have a top 5 SOS playing only 3 games against the top 50? 4 losses outside the top 50 seem to be ignored?
23. Connecticut – I like the Huskies more than others right now. They have a nice group of wins
24. Pittsburgh – At some point, the ratings mean nothing if you don’t really beat anyone of consequence
25. Ohio State – The Buckeyes finally got a win, hoping to start a new trend (although it wasn’t easy).
26. UCLA - Warming up a little more to the Bruins and the PAC-12 has to have a 2nd best
27. St. Louis – A Pitt-like resume…lacking good wins, but losses are to teams #3 and #10 above.
28. Memphis – Wins over Oklahoma State and at Louisville prop up the Tigers resume. All 4 losses to top 38.
29. Minnesota - Fell victim to Nebraska, but still have some really nice wins
30. Gonzaga – The WCC is a bit down this year, which isn’t helping the Zags.
31. Xavier – The Musketeers are Sooner-like in hype, but their 9 top-100 wins is only one behind the top total.
32. Kansas State – Like the Gophers, K-State has 2 top 25 wins, 4 in the top 30.
33. Florida State – All 5 losses are to teams in the top 25 of the RPI.
34. George Washington – The Colonials have that top-10 win vs Creighton and beat VCU.
35. New Mexico – A “nice” resume, but I actually thought they would be better this season.
36. VCU – All three top 100 wins are on the road. Have 5 home games remaining against top 100.
37. Providence – Another nice win vs Xavier makes them more comfortable
38. Colorado – The early-season success will fade if they can't finish well
39. North Carolina – The Tar Heels keep adding up the losses to go with their quality wins.
40. Oregon – The victories are not that great to offset a 1-5 conference start.
41. Missouri – The Tigers have played a bad schedule and have bad losses to boot.
42. California – Two nice road wins and 2nd Place in PAC-12 headline the Golden Bears resume.
43. Stanford – The Cardinals have the good road wins, but they need more.
44. Tennessee – The Volunteers hang on for dear life based on their wins and SOS.
45. Richmond - The Spiders are in, but have a tough week this week at St. Louis and at VCU
46. LSU – Reward the Tigers for a good win against Kentucky, must beat Arkansas this weekend to stay
47. SMU – South Florida is a bad loss, but the Mustangs hang on to the last spot
48. Southern Miss
49. Harvard
50. Green Bay
51. Toledo
52. North Dakota State
53. New Mexico State
54. Mercer
55. Belmont
56. Boston U.
57. Delaware
58. Canisius
59. Stephen F. Austin
60. Georgia State
61. UC-Irvine
62. Northern Colorado
63. North Carolina Central
64. Stony Brook
65. Robert Morris
66. Southern U.
67. Winthrop
68. Chattanooga
1. Arizona – PAC-12 is deep, but Wildcats may not have been properly tested in 2014 going into March.
2. Syracuse – ACC teams, meet the Syracuse zone. Good luck.
3. Wichita State – As long as they are undefeated and bolster a top 10 RPI, they deserve this spot.
4. Florida – Florida beat Kansas, plus both losses came at less than full strength
5. Michigan State – The injury to Payne will be considered once he is back – great win at Iowa
6. Kansas – With losses to teams #4, #7 and #9 on this list, hard to put them in front of them all when best team they beat is #12
7. Villanova – Don’t read much into a loss to a team that had a historic shooting night.
8. Michigan - Road wins @Minnesota, @Wisconsin and @Michigan State are unmatched
9. San Diego State – A 3 seed seems more appropriate based on RPI and other ratings
10. Wisconsin – Despite the 3 straight losses and horrid defense, the Badgers still have a top profile.
11. Creighton – Doug McDermott - POY
12. Duke – Filled in the last resume hole with a great road win at Pittsburgh. Next up - at Syracuse
13. Iowa State – Need to stop the bleeding vs Kansas State Saturday or the losing streak might not end.
14. Cincinnati – Bearcats play elite defense and have won 12 in a row, but last 6 against inferior teams.
15. Oklahoma State – Something is keeping this team from being elite
16. Louisville – I jumped UMass with the Cardinals, but my gut says the committee would lean this way
17. Massachusetts – Best win is New Mexico, likely headed further down the seed list as gaudy RPI drops
18. Oklahoma – A team nobody is talking about, the Sooners continue to rise.
19. Iowa – The Hawkeyes are now 0-5 vs the Top 13 on this list
20. Virginia – Still lack that elite win, but sweep of Florida State and no bad losses is still a good start.
21. Texas – After comparing resumes, it was hard to keep Texas below Kentucky
22. Kentucky – How do they have a top 5 SOS playing only 3 games against the top 50? 4 losses outside the top 50 seem to be ignored?
23. Connecticut – I like the Huskies more than others right now. They have a nice group of wins
24. Pittsburgh – At some point, the ratings mean nothing if you don’t really beat anyone of consequence
25. Ohio State – The Buckeyes finally got a win, hoping to start a new trend (although it wasn’t easy).
26. UCLA - Warming up a little more to the Bruins and the PAC-12 has to have a 2nd best
27. St. Louis – A Pitt-like resume…lacking good wins, but losses are to teams #3 and #10 above.
28. Memphis – Wins over Oklahoma State and at Louisville prop up the Tigers resume. All 4 losses to top 38.
29. Minnesota - Fell victim to Nebraska, but still have some really nice wins
30. Gonzaga – The WCC is a bit down this year, which isn’t helping the Zags.
31. Xavier – The Musketeers are Sooner-like in hype, but their 9 top-100 wins is only one behind the top total.
32. Kansas State – Like the Gophers, K-State has 2 top 25 wins, 4 in the top 30.
33. Florida State – All 5 losses are to teams in the top 25 of the RPI.
34. George Washington – The Colonials have that top-10 win vs Creighton and beat VCU.
35. New Mexico – A “nice” resume, but I actually thought they would be better this season.
36. VCU – All three top 100 wins are on the road. Have 5 home games remaining against top 100.
37. Providence – Another nice win vs Xavier makes them more comfortable
38. Colorado – The early-season success will fade if they can't finish well
39. North Carolina – The Tar Heels keep adding up the losses to go with their quality wins.
40. Oregon – The victories are not that great to offset a 1-5 conference start.
41. Missouri – The Tigers have played a bad schedule and have bad losses to boot.
42. California – Two nice road wins and 2nd Place in PAC-12 headline the Golden Bears resume.
43. Stanford – The Cardinals have the good road wins, but they need more.
44. Tennessee – The Volunteers hang on for dear life based on their wins and SOS.
45. Richmond - The Spiders are in, but have a tough week this week at St. Louis and at VCU
46. LSU – Reward the Tigers for a good win against Kentucky, must beat Arkansas this weekend to stay
47. SMU – South Florida is a bad loss, but the Mustangs hang on to the last spot
48. Southern Miss
49. Harvard
50. Green Bay
51. Toledo
52. North Dakota State
53. New Mexico State
54. Mercer
55. Belmont
56. Boston U.
57. Delaware
58. Canisius
59. Stephen F. Austin
60. Georgia State
61. UC-Irvine
62. Northern Colorado
63. North Carolina Central
64. Stony Brook
65. Robert Morris
66. Southern U.
67. Winthrop
68. Chattanooga
Monday, January 27, 2014
College Basketball 2013-14 - Field of 68 (January 27, 2014 Edition)
I will stick with the seed list, as it is helpful in seeing how teams move based on results. Also, follow me on twitter @jabesblog3000 as I intend to provide more tweets between official updates as to my opinion of what is going on.
Seed List (New Comments in Bold)
1. Arizona – PAC-12 is deep, but Wildcats may not have been properly tested in 2014 going into March.
2. Syracuse – ACC teams, meet the Syracuse zone. Good luck.
3. Wichita State – As long as they are undefeated and bolster a top 10 RPI, they deserve this spot.
4. Florida – Florida beat Kansas, plus both losses came at less than full strength
5. Michigan State – The injury to Payne will be considered once he is back
6. Kansas – With losses to teams #4, #7 and #9 on this list, hard to put them in front of them all when best team they beat is #12
7. Villanova – Don’t read much into a loss to a team that had a historic shooting night.
8. Michigan - Road wins @Minnesota, @Wisconsin and @Michigan State are unmatched
9. San Diego State – A 3 seed seems more appropriate based on RPI and other ratings
10. Wisconsin – Despite the 3 straight losses and horrid defense, the Badgers still have a top profile.
11. Creighton – This is why Dougy came back, to lead this team to heights they have never been.
12. Oklahoma State – Interior defense now a concern, but the Cowboys are still rock solid.
13. Iowa State – Need to stop the bleeding vs Kansas State Saturday or the losing streak might not end.
14. Iowa – A road blip at Michigan is not an awful loss, still a dangerous team.
15. Cincinnati – Bearcats play elite defense and have won 12 in a row, but last 6 against inferior teams.
16. Duke - Still lacking of a great road win, the rest of the Blue Devils resume is coming together
17. Kentucky – I see them much higher most places, but what jumps out on this resume? Exactly!!
18. Massachusetts – Best win is New Mexico, likely headed further down the seed list as gaudy RPI drops
19. Pittsburgh – Sometimes, a loss can be just as telling as a win. Case in point the loss at Syracuse.
20. Louisville – Rounding out the who’s who of #5 seeds with the defending champs.
21. Connecticut – I like the Huskies more than others right now. They have a nice group of wins.
22. Oklahoma – A team nobody is talking about, the Sooners continue to rise.
23. Virginia – Still lack that elite win, but sweep of Florida State and no bad losses is still a good start.
24. Texas - The Longhorns are coming on and flying up the list
25. Ohio State – The Buckeyes finally got a win, hoping to start a new trend (although it wasn’t easy).
26. St. Louis – A Pitt-like resume…lacking good wins, but losses are to teams #4 and #9 above.
27. Minnesota - Fell victim to Nebraska, but still have some really nice wins
28. UCLA - Warming up a little more to the Bruins and the PAC-12 has to have a 2nd best
29. Gonzaga – The WCC is a bit down this year, which isn’t helping the Zags.
30. Xavier – The Musketeers are Sooner-like in hype, but their 9 top-100 wins is only one behind the top total.
31. Memphis – Wins over Oklahoma State and at Louisville prop up the Tigers resume. All 4 losses to top 38.
32. Kansas State – Like the Gophers, K-State has 3 top 25 wins, 4 in the top 27.
33. Florida State – All 5 losses are to teams in the top 25 of the RPI.
34. George Washington – The Colonials have that top-10 win vs Creighton and beat VCU.
35. New Mexico – A “nice” resume, but I actually thought they would be better this season.
36. VCU – All three top 100 wins are on the road. Have 5 home games remaining against top 100.
37. Providence – Another nice win vs Xavier makes them more comfortable
38. Colorado – The early-season success will fade if they can't finish well
39. North Carolina – The Tar Heels keep adding up the losses to go with their quality wins.
40. Oregon – The victories are not that great to offset a 1-5 conference start.
41. SMU – The Mustangs need more quality wins, but others continue to fall around them.
42. California – Two nice road wins and 2nd Place in PAC-12 headline the Golden Bears resume.
43. Missouri – The Tigers have played a bad schedule and have bad losses to boot.
44. Stanford – The Cardinals have the good road wins, but they need more.
45. Baylor – The Bears have zero road wins this season, but did beat Kentucky and Colorado.
46. Tennessee – The Volunteers hang on for dear life based on their wins and SOS.
47. Richmond - The Spiders take over as the least team in, but have a tough week this week
48. Southern Miss
49. Harvard
50. Green Bay
51. Toledo
52. North Dakota State
53. New Mexico State
54. Mercer
55. Belmont
56. Boston U.
57. Delaware
58. Canisius
59. Stephen F. Austin
60. Georgia State
61. UC-Irvine
62. Northern Colorado
63. North Carolina Central
64. Stony Brook
65. Robert Morris
66. Southern U.
67. UNC-Asheville
68. Chattanooga
Seed List (New Comments in Bold)
1. Arizona – PAC-12 is deep, but Wildcats may not have been properly tested in 2014 going into March.
2. Syracuse – ACC teams, meet the Syracuse zone. Good luck.
3. Wichita State – As long as they are undefeated and bolster a top 10 RPI, they deserve this spot.
4. Florida – Florida beat Kansas, plus both losses came at less than full strength
5. Michigan State – The injury to Payne will be considered once he is back
6. Kansas – With losses to teams #4, #7 and #9 on this list, hard to put them in front of them all when best team they beat is #12
7. Villanova – Don’t read much into a loss to a team that had a historic shooting night.
8. Michigan - Road wins @Minnesota, @Wisconsin and @Michigan State are unmatched
9. San Diego State – A 3 seed seems more appropriate based on RPI and other ratings
10. Wisconsin – Despite the 3 straight losses and horrid defense, the Badgers still have a top profile.
11. Creighton – This is why Dougy came back, to lead this team to heights they have never been.
12. Oklahoma State – Interior defense now a concern, but the Cowboys are still rock solid.
13. Iowa State – Need to stop the bleeding vs Kansas State Saturday or the losing streak might not end.
14. Iowa – A road blip at Michigan is not an awful loss, still a dangerous team.
15. Cincinnati – Bearcats play elite defense and have won 12 in a row, but last 6 against inferior teams.
16. Duke - Still lacking of a great road win, the rest of the Blue Devils resume is coming together
17. Kentucky – I see them much higher most places, but what jumps out on this resume? Exactly!!
18. Massachusetts – Best win is New Mexico, likely headed further down the seed list as gaudy RPI drops
19. Pittsburgh – Sometimes, a loss can be just as telling as a win. Case in point the loss at Syracuse.
20. Louisville – Rounding out the who’s who of #5 seeds with the defending champs.
21. Connecticut – I like the Huskies more than others right now. They have a nice group of wins.
22. Oklahoma – A team nobody is talking about, the Sooners continue to rise.
23. Virginia – Still lack that elite win, but sweep of Florida State and no bad losses is still a good start.
24. Texas - The Longhorns are coming on and flying up the list
25. Ohio State – The Buckeyes finally got a win, hoping to start a new trend (although it wasn’t easy).
26. St. Louis – A Pitt-like resume…lacking good wins, but losses are to teams #4 and #9 above.
27. Minnesota - Fell victim to Nebraska, but still have some really nice wins
28. UCLA - Warming up a little more to the Bruins and the PAC-12 has to have a 2nd best
29. Gonzaga – The WCC is a bit down this year, which isn’t helping the Zags.
30. Xavier – The Musketeers are Sooner-like in hype, but their 9 top-100 wins is only one behind the top total.
31. Memphis – Wins over Oklahoma State and at Louisville prop up the Tigers resume. All 4 losses to top 38.
32. Kansas State – Like the Gophers, K-State has 3 top 25 wins, 4 in the top 27.
33. Florida State – All 5 losses are to teams in the top 25 of the RPI.
34. George Washington – The Colonials have that top-10 win vs Creighton and beat VCU.
35. New Mexico – A “nice” resume, but I actually thought they would be better this season.
36. VCU – All three top 100 wins are on the road. Have 5 home games remaining against top 100.
37. Providence – Another nice win vs Xavier makes them more comfortable
38. Colorado – The early-season success will fade if they can't finish well
39. North Carolina – The Tar Heels keep adding up the losses to go with their quality wins.
40. Oregon – The victories are not that great to offset a 1-5 conference start.
41. SMU – The Mustangs need more quality wins, but others continue to fall around them.
42. California – Two nice road wins and 2nd Place in PAC-12 headline the Golden Bears resume.
43. Missouri – The Tigers have played a bad schedule and have bad losses to boot.
44. Stanford – The Cardinals have the good road wins, but they need more.
45. Baylor – The Bears have zero road wins this season, but did beat Kentucky and Colorado.
46. Tennessee – The Volunteers hang on for dear life based on their wins and SOS.
47. Richmond - The Spiders take over as the least team in, but have a tough week this week
48. Southern Miss
49. Harvard
50. Green Bay
51. Toledo
52. North Dakota State
53. New Mexico State
54. Mercer
55. Belmont
56. Boston U.
57. Delaware
58. Canisius
59. Stephen F. Austin
60. Georgia State
61. UC-Irvine
62. Northern Colorado
63. North Carolina Central
64. Stony Brook
65. Robert Morris
66. Southern U.
67. UNC-Asheville
68. Chattanooga
Friday, January 24, 2014
College Basketball 2013-14 - Field of 68 (January 24, 2014)
I’ll try something new and add a little S-Curve for my seed list. It is my first attempt at this, so I hope it helps. Also, you might notice some big jumps and falls that occur based on results and wonder why the big reactionary fluctuations. I see 3 main reasons for this. (1) It is still relatively early in the grand scheme of the season, so individual results have a bigger overall impact on a resume. (2) There is a glut of teams clumped up right now and each result potentially separates a team from the glut in either a positive or negative manner. (3) Some of the non-conference stars (Wisconsin, Iowa State, Ohio State, Oregon, Baylor, etc.) are falling on harder times in the conference season. While not unprecedented, I do not remember this many teams struggling in early conference play after such good non-conference showings.
On to the list…
1. Arizona – PAC-12 is deep, but Wildcats may not have been properly tested in 2014 going into March.
2. Syracuse – ACC teams, meet the Syracuse zone. Good luck.
3. Michigan State – Must overcome another injury (Brandon Dawson).
4. Wichita State – As long as they are undefeated and bolster a top 10 RPI, they deserve this spot.
5. Florida – Didn’t the Gators beat Kansas? Then why does Kansas garner all the #1 seed talk?
6. Kansas – Yes, they are playing at the level of a #1 seed, but can’t ignore 4 losses.
7. Villanova – Don’t read much into a loss to a team that had a historic shooting night.
8. San Diego State – The RPI and KenPom don’t support a 2 seed, but the win at Kansas does (for now).
9. Wisconsin – Despite the 3 straight losses and horrid defense, the Badgers still have a top profile.
10. Creighton – This is why Dougy came back, to lead this team to heights they have never been.
11. Oklahoma State – Interior defense now a concern, but the Cowboys are still rock solid.
12. Michigan – The brackets high riser, not many playing better than Nik Stauskas and the Wolverines right now.
13. Iowa State – Need to stop the bleeding vs Kansas State Saturday or the losing streak might not end.
14. Iowa – A road blip at Michigan is not an awful loss, still a dangerous team.
15. Cincinnati – Bearcats play elite defense and have won 11 in a row, but last 5 against inferior teams.
16. Massachusetts – Best win is New Mexico, likely headed further down the seed list.
17. Duke – Finally got a road win and developing a decent tournament resume.
18. Kentucky – I see them much higher most places, but what jumps out on this resume? Exactly!!
19. Pittsburgh – Sometimes, a loss can be just as telling as a win. Case in point the loss at Syracuse.
20. Louisville – Rounding out the who’s who of #5 seeds with the defending champs.
21. Connecticut – I like the Huskies more than others right now. They have a nice group of wins.
22. Oklahoma – A team nobody is talking about, the Sooners continue to rise.
23. Virginia – Still lack that elite win, but sweep of Florida State and no bad losses is still a good start.
24. Minnesota – 3 top 25 wins will vault you up the seed list.
25. Ohio State – The Buckeyes finally got a win, hoping to start a new trend (although it wasn’t easy).
26. St. Louis – A Pitt-like resume…lacking good wins, but losses are to teams #4 and #9 above.
27. Xavier – The Musketeers are Sooner-like in hype, but their 9 top-100 wins is only one behind the top total.
28. Kansas State – Like the Gophers, K-State has 3 top 25 wins, 4 in the top 27.
29. Gonzaga – The WCC is a bit down this year, which isn’t helping the Zags.
30. Texas – A buzzer-beater vs K-State keeps the Longhorns climbing the list.
31. Florida State – All 5 losses are to teams in the top 25 of the RPI.
32. Memphis – Wins over Oklahoma State and at Louisville prop up the Tigers resume. All 4 losses to top 38.
33. UCLA – Finally another PAC-12 team. Best win is vs Dinwiddie-less Colorado.
34. Colorado – Speaking of Buffaloes, the jury is still out on how good they are without Dinwiddie
35. George Washington – The Colonials have that top-10 win vs Creighton and beat VCU.
36. New Mexico – A “nice” resume, but I actually thought they would be better this season.
37. VCU – All three top 100 wins are on the road. Have 5 home games remaining against top 100.
38. California – Two nice road wins and 2nd Place in PAC-12 headline the Golden Bears resume.
39. Baylor – The colorless Bears have zero road wins this season, but did beat Kentucky and Colorado.
40. Tennessee – The Volunteers have the best wins of the next grouping of teams.
41. SMU – The Mustangs need more quality wins, but others continue to fall around them.
42. Providence – The Creighton win will continue to look more impressive as March rolls around.
43. Oregon – The victories are not that great to offset a 1-5 conference start.
44. Missouri – The Tigers have played a bad schedule and have bad losses to boot.
45. North Carolina – The Tar Heels keep adding up the losses to go with their quality wins.
46. Stanford – The Cardinals have the good road wins, but they need more.
47. Arkansas – The Razorbacks have the best wins of the remaining teams, so I’ll go with them.
48. Southern Miss
49. Harvard
50. Green Bay
51. Toledo
52. North Dakota State
53. New Mexico State
54. Mercer
55. Manhattan
56. Belmont
57. Delaware
58. Boston University
59. Stephen F. Austin
60. Georgia State
61. UC-Irvine
62. Northern Colorado
63. Stony Brook
64. Robert Morris
65. Southern U.
66. UNC-Asheville
67. Chattanooga
68. Savannah State
On to the list…
1. Arizona – PAC-12 is deep, but Wildcats may not have been properly tested in 2014 going into March.
2. Syracuse – ACC teams, meet the Syracuse zone. Good luck.
3. Michigan State – Must overcome another injury (Brandon Dawson).
4. Wichita State – As long as they are undefeated and bolster a top 10 RPI, they deserve this spot.
5. Florida – Didn’t the Gators beat Kansas? Then why does Kansas garner all the #1 seed talk?
6. Kansas – Yes, they are playing at the level of a #1 seed, but can’t ignore 4 losses.
7. Villanova – Don’t read much into a loss to a team that had a historic shooting night.
8. San Diego State – The RPI and KenPom don’t support a 2 seed, but the win at Kansas does (for now).
9. Wisconsin – Despite the 3 straight losses and horrid defense, the Badgers still have a top profile.
10. Creighton – This is why Dougy came back, to lead this team to heights they have never been.
11. Oklahoma State – Interior defense now a concern, but the Cowboys are still rock solid.
12. Michigan – The brackets high riser, not many playing better than Nik Stauskas and the Wolverines right now.
13. Iowa State – Need to stop the bleeding vs Kansas State Saturday or the losing streak might not end.
14. Iowa – A road blip at Michigan is not an awful loss, still a dangerous team.
15. Cincinnati – Bearcats play elite defense and have won 11 in a row, but last 5 against inferior teams.
16. Massachusetts – Best win is New Mexico, likely headed further down the seed list.
17. Duke – Finally got a road win and developing a decent tournament resume.
18. Kentucky – I see them much higher most places, but what jumps out on this resume? Exactly!!
19. Pittsburgh – Sometimes, a loss can be just as telling as a win. Case in point the loss at Syracuse.
20. Louisville – Rounding out the who’s who of #5 seeds with the defending champs.
21. Connecticut – I like the Huskies more than others right now. They have a nice group of wins.
22. Oklahoma – A team nobody is talking about, the Sooners continue to rise.
23. Virginia – Still lack that elite win, but sweep of Florida State and no bad losses is still a good start.
24. Minnesota – 3 top 25 wins will vault you up the seed list.
25. Ohio State – The Buckeyes finally got a win, hoping to start a new trend (although it wasn’t easy).
26. St. Louis – A Pitt-like resume…lacking good wins, but losses are to teams #4 and #9 above.
27. Xavier – The Musketeers are Sooner-like in hype, but their 9 top-100 wins is only one behind the top total.
28. Kansas State – Like the Gophers, K-State has 3 top 25 wins, 4 in the top 27.
29. Gonzaga – The WCC is a bit down this year, which isn’t helping the Zags.
30. Texas – A buzzer-beater vs K-State keeps the Longhorns climbing the list.
31. Florida State – All 5 losses are to teams in the top 25 of the RPI.
32. Memphis – Wins over Oklahoma State and at Louisville prop up the Tigers resume. All 4 losses to top 38.
33. UCLA – Finally another PAC-12 team. Best win is vs Dinwiddie-less Colorado.
34. Colorado – Speaking of Buffaloes, the jury is still out on how good they are without Dinwiddie
35. George Washington – The Colonials have that top-10 win vs Creighton and beat VCU.
36. New Mexico – A “nice” resume, but I actually thought they would be better this season.
37. VCU – All three top 100 wins are on the road. Have 5 home games remaining against top 100.
38. California – Two nice road wins and 2nd Place in PAC-12 headline the Golden Bears resume.
39. Baylor – The colorless Bears have zero road wins this season, but did beat Kentucky and Colorado.
40. Tennessee – The Volunteers have the best wins of the next grouping of teams.
41. SMU – The Mustangs need more quality wins, but others continue to fall around them.
42. Providence – The Creighton win will continue to look more impressive as March rolls around.
43. Oregon – The victories are not that great to offset a 1-5 conference start.
44. Missouri – The Tigers have played a bad schedule and have bad losses to boot.
45. North Carolina – The Tar Heels keep adding up the losses to go with their quality wins.
46. Stanford – The Cardinals have the good road wins, but they need more.
47. Arkansas – The Razorbacks have the best wins of the remaining teams, so I’ll go with them.
48. Southern Miss
49. Harvard
50. Green Bay
51. Toledo
52. North Dakota State
53. New Mexico State
54. Mercer
55. Manhattan
56. Belmont
57. Delaware
58. Boston University
59. Stephen F. Austin
60. Georgia State
61. UC-Irvine
62. Northern Colorado
63. Stony Brook
64. Robert Morris
65. Southern U.
66. UNC-Asheville
67. Chattanooga
68. Savannah State
Tuesday, January 21, 2014
College Basketball 2013-14 - Field of 68 Bracket (January 21, 2014)
Projected NCAA Tournament Bracket (January 21, 2014)
West Region
(1) Arizona vs (16) Southern
San Diego, CA
(8) Memphis vs (9) George Washington
(5) Duke vs (12) Southern Miss
Spokane, WA
(4) Iowa State vs (13) North Dakota State
(6) Gonzaga vs (11) Stanford
San Antonio, TX
(3) Creighton vs (14) Mercer
(7) Oklahoma vs (10) New Mexico
Milwaukee, WI
(2) Wisconsin vs (15) Boston U.
East Region
(1) Syracuse vs (16) Radford/Stony Brook
Buffalo, NY
(8) UCLA vs (9) Texas
(5) Louisville vs (12) Green Bay
San Diego, CA
(4) Michigan vs (13) New Mexico State
(6) Ohio State vs (11) Harvard
Raleigh, NC
(3) Massachusetts vs (14) Belmont
(7) Virginia vs (10) Missouri
Buffalo, NY
(2) Villanova vs (15) Georgia State
Midwest Region
(1) Michigan State vs (16) North Carolina Central
Milwaukee, WI
(8) Xavier vs (9) Florida State
(5) Kentucky vs (12) North Carolina/Dayton
Orlando, FL
(4) Cincinnati vs (13) Manhattan
(6) Connecticut vs (11) Baylor
Spokane, WA
(3) San Diego State vs (14) Northern Colorado
(7) California vs (10) VCU
St. Louis, MO
(2) Kansas vs (15) UC-Irvine
South Region
(1) Wichita State vs (16) Robert Morris/Chattanooga
St. Louis, MO
(8) Colorado vs (9) Minnesota
(5) Pittsburgh vs (12) Providence/Tennessee
San Antonio, TX
(4) Oklahoma State vs (13) Toledo
(6) Kansas State vs (11) SMU
Raleigh, NC
(3) Iowa vs (14) Delaware
(7) St. Louis vs (10) Oregon
Orlando, FL
(2) Florida vs (15) Stephen F. Austin
West Region
(1) Arizona vs (16) Southern
San Diego, CA
(8) Memphis vs (9) George Washington
(5) Duke vs (12) Southern Miss
Spokane, WA
(4) Iowa State vs (13) North Dakota State
(6) Gonzaga vs (11) Stanford
San Antonio, TX
(3) Creighton vs (14) Mercer
(7) Oklahoma vs (10) New Mexico
Milwaukee, WI
(2) Wisconsin vs (15) Boston U.
East Region
(1) Syracuse vs (16) Radford/Stony Brook
Buffalo, NY
(8) UCLA vs (9) Texas
(5) Louisville vs (12) Green Bay
San Diego, CA
(4) Michigan vs (13) New Mexico State
(6) Ohio State vs (11) Harvard
Raleigh, NC
(3) Massachusetts vs (14) Belmont
(7) Virginia vs (10) Missouri
Buffalo, NY
(2) Villanova vs (15) Georgia State
Midwest Region
(1) Michigan State vs (16) North Carolina Central
Milwaukee, WI
(8) Xavier vs (9) Florida State
(5) Kentucky vs (12) North Carolina/Dayton
Orlando, FL
(4) Cincinnati vs (13) Manhattan
(6) Connecticut vs (11) Baylor
Spokane, WA
(3) San Diego State vs (14) Northern Colorado
(7) California vs (10) VCU
St. Louis, MO
(2) Kansas vs (15) UC-Irvine
South Region
(1) Wichita State vs (16) Robert Morris/Chattanooga
St. Louis, MO
(8) Colorado vs (9) Minnesota
(5) Pittsburgh vs (12) Providence/Tennessee
San Antonio, TX
(4) Oklahoma State vs (13) Toledo
(6) Kansas State vs (11) SMU
Raleigh, NC
(3) Iowa vs (14) Delaware
(7) St. Louis vs (10) Oregon
Orlando, FL
(2) Florida vs (15) Stephen F. Austin
Thursday, January 16, 2014
Crucial Stretch for some Bubble Teams
There are some teams that are going to play themselves in or out of bubble discussion in the next few weeks, as all schedules are not created equal as far as quality win opportunities. Here is a look at some teams to watch over the next 3 to 4 weeks:
Illinois (13-5, 2-3, RPI 50) – The Illini finally fell out of the Field today in my projections, but the next stretch provides them a way back in – Michigan State (RPI 8), @Ohio State (13), @Indiana (58), Iowa (21) and Wisconsin (2) are the next 5 for Illinois. The turnaround has to come now.
Texas (13-4, 2-2, RPI 52) – The most bubblicious of the Big 12 teams, I have Texas in by a thread right now. 6 of their next 7 are against the current RPI top 34, including 4 at home – Iowa State (9), Kansas State (34), @Baylor (19), Kansas (1), @Kansas State (34), Oklahoma State (11). With a win at North Carolina in the books, The Longhorns are just looking to add Top 50 wins to their 4 current Top 100 wins. Even a 3-3 split in these 3 games should give them a resume boost.
Stanford (11-5, 2-2, RPI 57) – I have the Cardinal in as of today with two nice road wins to date. The bad loss to Oregon State needs to be covered by some more quality wins. The next 7 are all against current RPI top 100 teams, Washington (79), @UCLA (37), @USC (94), Arizona (4), Arizona State (64), @California (31) and @Washington (79). Unlike some teams, they are not desperate for a road win, they just need quality wins, so a nice 5-2 or 4-3 stretch would put them right in the discussion.
Arizona State (13-4, 2-2, RPI 64) – The Sun Devils best wins are Marquette, DePaul and USC, so nothing impressive yet. Starting tonight at Arizona (RPI 4), they also play Colorado (12), @ California (31) and @ Stanford (57) in their next stretch of 5 games. After hosting Oregon State, they host Oregon (24) and Arizona before playing at Colorado. That’s 7 of 9 against current RPI top 57 teams. We should know soon about Arizona State.
LaSalle (10-6, 3-0, RPI 73) – Much more was expected of the Explorers this season, but after a slow start they are off to a 3-0 conference start, including a win over George Washington (RPI 28). After facing Temple in a Big 5 game on Saturday, LaSalle plays @St. Bonaventure (RPI 75), VCU (42), @George Washington (28), @Massachusetts (5) and St. Louis (32) between then and February 8. If the Explorers can come out 4-1 from that stretch, plus take out Temple and Duquesne, we will have to start looking closer at a 16-7, 7-1 team from the A-10.
Clemson (12-4, 3-1, RPI 85) – Clemson owns a good record and a victory over Duke, but they have a bad loss at Auburn and South Carolina was their best non-conference win. They need to keep doing damage in the ACC and adding quality wins, plus a quality road win to their resume. 5 of their next 6 are against teams in the RPI top 60, with 4 of those on the road – Wake Forest (60), @Pittsburgh (17), @North Carolina (54), @Florida State (22) and @Syracuse (7). While this looks like a daunting stretch, it at least provides opportunity for the Tigers.
Marquette (10-7, 2-2, RPI 92) – Another team with high expectations, the Golden Eagles are at the crucial point of their season. 8 of their next 9 games are against RPI top 100 teams, including 3 top 25 teams at home - @Butler (91), @Georgetown (47), Villanova (3), Providence (69), @St. John’s (71) and Butler (91). After playing Seton Hall, Xavier (18) and Creighton (14) both visit Milwaukee. They need a 7-2 stretch here to really get back in the thick of the at-large discussion.
Others to Watch
Tennessee (10-5, 2-1, RPI 56) – The Volunteers are in for now, but the next 4 is @Kentucky, Arkansas, @Florida and Ole Miss. A 1-3 stretch will have them on the outside, while a 3-1 stretch will have them very safe.
Arkansas (12-4, 1-2, RPI 67) – 5 out of their next 8 are on the road for a team needing road wins to impress the committee, including at Tennessee, LSU and Missouri.
Providence (11-5, 1-2, RPI 69) – 14 of their last 15 are against teams in the current RPI top 100.
Richmond (11-6, 1-1, RPI 74) – The Spiders are on nobody’s radar, but with 6 straight against the RPI top 75, including 4 at home, let’s check back in 3 weeks.
Illinois (13-5, 2-3, RPI 50) – The Illini finally fell out of the Field today in my projections, but the next stretch provides them a way back in – Michigan State (RPI 8), @Ohio State (13), @Indiana (58), Iowa (21) and Wisconsin (2) are the next 5 for Illinois. The turnaround has to come now.
Texas (13-4, 2-2, RPI 52) – The most bubblicious of the Big 12 teams, I have Texas in by a thread right now. 6 of their next 7 are against the current RPI top 34, including 4 at home – Iowa State (9), Kansas State (34), @Baylor (19), Kansas (1), @Kansas State (34), Oklahoma State (11). With a win at North Carolina in the books, The Longhorns are just looking to add Top 50 wins to their 4 current Top 100 wins. Even a 3-3 split in these 3 games should give them a resume boost.
Stanford (11-5, 2-2, RPI 57) – I have the Cardinal in as of today with two nice road wins to date. The bad loss to Oregon State needs to be covered by some more quality wins. The next 7 are all against current RPI top 100 teams, Washington (79), @UCLA (37), @USC (94), Arizona (4), Arizona State (64), @California (31) and @Washington (79). Unlike some teams, they are not desperate for a road win, they just need quality wins, so a nice 5-2 or 4-3 stretch would put them right in the discussion.
Arizona State (13-4, 2-2, RPI 64) – The Sun Devils best wins are Marquette, DePaul and USC, so nothing impressive yet. Starting tonight at Arizona (RPI 4), they also play Colorado (12), @ California (31) and @ Stanford (57) in their next stretch of 5 games. After hosting Oregon State, they host Oregon (24) and Arizona before playing at Colorado. That’s 7 of 9 against current RPI top 57 teams. We should know soon about Arizona State.
LaSalle (10-6, 3-0, RPI 73) – Much more was expected of the Explorers this season, but after a slow start they are off to a 3-0 conference start, including a win over George Washington (RPI 28). After facing Temple in a Big 5 game on Saturday, LaSalle plays @St. Bonaventure (RPI 75), VCU (42), @George Washington (28), @Massachusetts (5) and St. Louis (32) between then and February 8. If the Explorers can come out 4-1 from that stretch, plus take out Temple and Duquesne, we will have to start looking closer at a 16-7, 7-1 team from the A-10.
Clemson (12-4, 3-1, RPI 85) – Clemson owns a good record and a victory over Duke, but they have a bad loss at Auburn and South Carolina was their best non-conference win. They need to keep doing damage in the ACC and adding quality wins, plus a quality road win to their resume. 5 of their next 6 are against teams in the RPI top 60, with 4 of those on the road – Wake Forest (60), @Pittsburgh (17), @North Carolina (54), @Florida State (22) and @Syracuse (7). While this looks like a daunting stretch, it at least provides opportunity for the Tigers.
Marquette (10-7, 2-2, RPI 92) – Another team with high expectations, the Golden Eagles are at the crucial point of their season. 8 of their next 9 games are against RPI top 100 teams, including 3 top 25 teams at home - @Butler (91), @Georgetown (47), Villanova (3), Providence (69), @St. John’s (71) and Butler (91). After playing Seton Hall, Xavier (18) and Creighton (14) both visit Milwaukee. They need a 7-2 stretch here to really get back in the thick of the at-large discussion.
Others to Watch
Tennessee (10-5, 2-1, RPI 56) – The Volunteers are in for now, but the next 4 is @Kentucky, Arkansas, @Florida and Ole Miss. A 1-3 stretch will have them on the outside, while a 3-1 stretch will have them very safe.
Arkansas (12-4, 1-2, RPI 67) – 5 out of their next 8 are on the road for a team needing road wins to impress the committee, including at Tennessee, LSU and Missouri.
Providence (11-5, 1-2, RPI 69) – 14 of their last 15 are against teams in the current RPI top 100.
Richmond (11-6, 1-1, RPI 74) – The Spiders are on nobody’s radar, but with 6 straight against the RPI top 75, including 4 at home, let’s check back in 3 weeks.
College Basketball 2013-14 -Field of 68 (January 16, 2014 edition)
Quick mid-week update…
The 1’s – Arizona, Syracuse, Wisconsin and Michigan State
No change despite the Wisconsin loss. The only question is who is #3 and #4. Michigan State leads the Big Ten and everyone thinks they are better than Wisconsin, but the Badgers still have the better resume. It would be important if the season ended today as the #4 team would likely get bumped from Milwaukee to St. Louis so the NCAA has a Friday site for the First Round 16 seeds to filter into.
The 2’s – Villanova, Wichita State, Florida and Kansas
No change.
The 3’s – Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Iowa State and San Diego State
No change.
The 4’s – Massachusetts, Iowa, Creighton and Cincinnati
Creighton and Cincinnati move-up replacing Baylor and Kentucky. I know Pittsburgh is 16-1, but until they beat someone in the Top 50, they lack upward mobility in my eyes.
The 5’s –Pittsburgh, Kentucky, Memphis and Baylor
That was a bad loss for Baylor, falling to 0-2 on the road. That road record could be troublesome come seeding time.
The 6’s – Louisville, Duke, Oregon and Colorado
No change.
The 7’s – Gonzaga, Missouri, Connecticut and Xavier
Xavier and their 7 top 100 wins, including wins over Cincinnati, Georgetown and Tennessee replaces New Mexico who lost at home to UNLV on Wednesday. Missouri should be lower, but I have not fully committed to that yet.
The 8’s – Michigan, Virginia, California and Florida State
Cal and Florida State rise up. After taking a closer look at UCLA, they were adjusted back until they beat someone.
The 9’s – UCLA, St. Louis, Kansas State and George Washington
Kansas State and Oklahoma swap after the Wildcats beat them on Tuesday. George Washington moves up higher than I expected, but in comparison to New Mexico and Oklahoma, I like what G.W. has done a little better right now.
The 10’s – Oklahoma, New Mexico, Georgetown and North Carolina
This is the landing place for New Mexico, while Georgetown holds steady despite a loss last night.
The 11’s – VCU, Harvard, Tennessee and Minnesota
VCU drops down to here and better get their act together before they are on the wrong side of the bubble.
The 12’s –UWGB, New Mexico State, Dayton, Texas, Arkansas and Stanford
UWGB and New Mexico State are auto bids. Arkansas and Stanford enter, SMU and Illinois exit. I don’t hate SMU, I just need to see more than a home win against Connecticut. Arkansas still needs a good road win, but beating Kentucky, SMU and Minnesota gets them in for now. Stanford won at Connecticut and also at Oregon, two really good road wins.
The 13’s – Akron, Louisiana Tech, Manhattan and North Dakota State
The 14’s – Belmont, UC-Irvine, Boston U. and Delaware
The 15’s – Georgia State, Stephen F. Austin, Mercer and Northern Colorado
The 16’s – Stony Brook, Davidson, Norfolk State, Robert Morris, Southern and Radford
The 1’s – Arizona, Syracuse, Wisconsin and Michigan State
No change despite the Wisconsin loss. The only question is who is #3 and #4. Michigan State leads the Big Ten and everyone thinks they are better than Wisconsin, but the Badgers still have the better resume. It would be important if the season ended today as the #4 team would likely get bumped from Milwaukee to St. Louis so the NCAA has a Friday site for the First Round 16 seeds to filter into.
The 2’s – Villanova, Wichita State, Florida and Kansas
No change.
The 3’s – Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Iowa State and San Diego State
No change.
The 4’s – Massachusetts, Iowa, Creighton and Cincinnati
Creighton and Cincinnati move-up replacing Baylor and Kentucky. I know Pittsburgh is 16-1, but until they beat someone in the Top 50, they lack upward mobility in my eyes.
The 5’s –Pittsburgh, Kentucky, Memphis and Baylor
That was a bad loss for Baylor, falling to 0-2 on the road. That road record could be troublesome come seeding time.
The 6’s – Louisville, Duke, Oregon and Colorado
No change.
The 7’s – Gonzaga, Missouri, Connecticut and Xavier
Xavier and their 7 top 100 wins, including wins over Cincinnati, Georgetown and Tennessee replaces New Mexico who lost at home to UNLV on Wednesday. Missouri should be lower, but I have not fully committed to that yet.
The 8’s – Michigan, Virginia, California and Florida State
Cal and Florida State rise up. After taking a closer look at UCLA, they were adjusted back until they beat someone.
The 9’s – UCLA, St. Louis, Kansas State and George Washington
Kansas State and Oklahoma swap after the Wildcats beat them on Tuesday. George Washington moves up higher than I expected, but in comparison to New Mexico and Oklahoma, I like what G.W. has done a little better right now.
The 10’s – Oklahoma, New Mexico, Georgetown and North Carolina
This is the landing place for New Mexico, while Georgetown holds steady despite a loss last night.
The 11’s – VCU, Harvard, Tennessee and Minnesota
VCU drops down to here and better get their act together before they are on the wrong side of the bubble.
The 12’s –UWGB, New Mexico State, Dayton, Texas, Arkansas and Stanford
UWGB and New Mexico State are auto bids. Arkansas and Stanford enter, SMU and Illinois exit. I don’t hate SMU, I just need to see more than a home win against Connecticut. Arkansas still needs a good road win, but beating Kentucky, SMU and Minnesota gets them in for now. Stanford won at Connecticut and also at Oregon, two really good road wins.
The 13’s – Akron, Louisiana Tech, Manhattan and North Dakota State
The 14’s – Belmont, UC-Irvine, Boston U. and Delaware
The 15’s – Georgia State, Stephen F. Austin, Mercer and Northern Colorado
The 16’s – Stony Brook, Davidson, Norfolk State, Robert Morris, Southern and Radford
Tuesday, January 14, 2014
College Basketball 2013-14 - Field of 68 (January 14, 2014 edition)
We have hit the mark of 8 weeks left in the regular season, plus Championship Week. There is still a lot of basketball to be played, but if there wasn’t, here is what my field would look like. (Side Note: For the one bid leagues, I will occasionally stray from taking the regular season leader if there is a stronger team near the top of the standings. The regular season champion does not get an automatic berth, so awarding it like that has never been my practice. I also do not award an automatic bid to a conference leader of a multiple bid league who would not otherwise make it as an at-large, i.e. Nevada of the Mountain West currently.)
The 1’s – Arizona, Syracuse, Wisconsin and Michigan State
The Top 3 remain strong, with the Spartans sneaking in and grabbing the last #1. One could argue Villanova has a better resume than Sparty or that Wichita State is still undefeated. The committee loves Izzo though and would be hard-pressed not to place them here.
The 2’s – Villanova, Wichita State, Florida and Kansas
Villanova and Wichita State do come in as strong #2’s and are joined by Florida and Kansas. The Gators have righted the ship and will eventually contend for a #1 seed if they dominate the SEC. The Big 12 is the strongest conference and Kansas once again looks like the front-runner. So despite 4 losses, the final #2 goes to the team with the #1 RPI and the look of the strongest team in the strongest conference. That being said, a weekend game against the boys from Stillwater could flip the two squads.
The 3’s – Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Iowa State and San Diego State
It was a bad week for Ohio State and Iowa State, as both former unbeatens now carry 2-game losing streaks and fall to #3 seeds. Oklahoma State continues to be a struggling #3, so the Kansas game will be big for them. The committee loves road wins, and San Diego State’s road win at Kansas, along with their only loss being to Arizona, makes them a sneaky #3 at this point.
The 4’s – Baylor, Massachusetts, Kentucky and Iowa
Baylor has wins over Colorado, Kentucky and Dayton and the two losses (Syracuse and Iowa State) are of the quality variety. So why are they behind San Diego State…it is January 14th and they have played exactly one road game. Massachusetts keeps cruising along to a #4, while Kentucky moves up a spot as they continue their solid play. Did I mention the committee likes road wins? Iowa now owns one of the best and finally has that signature win to match-up with the eye test that says this team is really, really good.
The 5’s – Cincinnati, Creighton, Pittsburgh and Memphis
Pittsburgh is becoming an interesting team for this exercise. Kenpom loves them. Their record is 15-1. Their best win though is Stanford, and the ACC schedule will not provide them too many chances for great wins, although they do visit the Carrier Dome this weekend. Cincinnati and Memphis stay strong as the leaders of the AAC and Creighton got a really good win over Xavier on the weekend to separate themselves as the #2 team in the Big East.
The 6’s – Louisville, Duke, Oregon and Colorado
Duke got back on track with the win over Virginia last night, while Louisville had a nice win over SMU on Sunday. Louisville plays at Connecticut on Saturday and outside of hosting Cincinnati on Jan. 30, they play 7 teams with RPI’s over 174 in their next 9. Oregon has lost three straight and is lucky to land as a #6. Colorado now becomes a team to watch with the loss of Spencer Dinwiddie for the season. The Kansas win was with Dinwiddie, so the Buffaloes will be judged more on how they finish than most teams.
The 7’s – Gonzaga, New Mexico, Missouri and Connecticut
I keep finding Gonzaga and New Mexico similar in profile and hard to separate. The Lobos will have a better chance to distinguish themselves, but Gonzaga almost has to win at Memphis (Feb 8) to have much in the way of upward mobility. Missouri doesn’t have a great profile, but with just two losses, they still hold at 7. Their story seems like one that is yet to be written. Connecticut has the win over Florida leading their resume, but they could use the win Saturday over Louisville to stay out of the 8-9 territory.
The 8’s – Michigan, UCLA, Xavier and Virginia
Michigan has a rising profile now that they have started to play well sans Mitch McGary, with good wins over Florida State and Minnesota. The lack of a signature win, plus 4 losses is holding them here. UCLA now has Arizona State as their best win, but like Baylor, is 0-1 on the road. Xavier got a good wake-up call against Creighton, but still has a very solid resume. Virginia could have passed up Duke for 3rd in the ACC, but lost out on a great opportunity for a road win. Florida State and SMU wins are nice and are akin to Michigan’s at this juncture.
The 9’s – St. Louis, Florida State, VCU and Oklahoma
The Billikens are 6-0 on the road, albeit with Dayton as the best win in that group. Florida State’s best wins are Massachusetts and VCU, so it seems fitting to slot them in with 2 teams from the A-10 and one spot below two teams who have them as their best win. Sometimes, this stuff can actually make sense. Then comes VCU, who actually beat Virginia, who is seeded one higher, so maybe it doesn’t always make sense. Oklahoma makes the jump with the win over Iowa State and strong computer numbers. I like Kansas State’s wins a little better yet, but for now I will favor the Sooners.
The 10’s – Kansas State, Georgetown, California and North Carolina
I like Kansas State better than others, as quality wins like Gonzaga and Oklahoma State often erase bad losses like Northern Colorado. The Hoyas own wins over VCU and Kansas State, which makes this a fitting location. California has stormed out in PAC-12 play with 3 road wins, including Oregon and Stanford. The fact that Arkansas is their best non-conference win is what is currently holding them back a little. Finally there is North Carolina, who is a bit similar to Kansas State in that they have really good wins and in the Tar Heels case, just a lot of losses. I still have the Tar Heels in and their wins land them in this territory for seed. They need to figure it out soon though, or they will be this year’s Kentucky in the NIT.
The 11’s – Harvard, Tennessee, Minnesota and George Washington
Harvard’s spot is always difficult to gauge, but I figure somewhere right around where the bubble decisions really start, as they would be in that discussion if they were an at-large. Tennessee does this every year, pairing good wins with maddening losses. Right now, there are not too many, but home losses to Texas A&M should not be repeated. Minnesota almost got a huge win at Michigan State, so I am not dropping them like another conference foe. George Washington currently sits ahead of Dayton and will battle the bubble for the next 8 weeks.
The 12’s –UWGB, New Mexico State, Illinois, Dayton, SMU and Texas
UWGB and New Mexico State are auto bids. I think Illinois is in real trouble. The resume of wins is Missouri and, well, Missouri and some team is going to get squeezed out of the Big 10 race. After the loss to Northwestern, the Illini are the likely candidate. Dayton played St. Louis tough, but currently sits hosting a First Round game. SMU stays in for now, but this spot is tenuous. Texas is also back in, but needs to add some Top 50 wins along the way to support the resume of ok wins and no bad losses.
The 13’s – Akron, Louisiana Tech, Manhattan and North Dakota Stat
The 14’s – Belmont, UC-Irvine, Boston U. and Delaware
The 15’s – Georgia State, Stephen F. Austin, Mercer and Northern Colorado
The 16’s – Norfolk State, Robert Morris, Davidson, Southern, Radford and Stony Brook
The 1’s – Arizona, Syracuse, Wisconsin and Michigan State
The Top 3 remain strong, with the Spartans sneaking in and grabbing the last #1. One could argue Villanova has a better resume than Sparty or that Wichita State is still undefeated. The committee loves Izzo though and would be hard-pressed not to place them here.
The 2’s – Villanova, Wichita State, Florida and Kansas
Villanova and Wichita State do come in as strong #2’s and are joined by Florida and Kansas. The Gators have righted the ship and will eventually contend for a #1 seed if they dominate the SEC. The Big 12 is the strongest conference and Kansas once again looks like the front-runner. So despite 4 losses, the final #2 goes to the team with the #1 RPI and the look of the strongest team in the strongest conference. That being said, a weekend game against the boys from Stillwater could flip the two squads.
The 3’s – Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Iowa State and San Diego State
It was a bad week for Ohio State and Iowa State, as both former unbeatens now carry 2-game losing streaks and fall to #3 seeds. Oklahoma State continues to be a struggling #3, so the Kansas game will be big for them. The committee loves road wins, and San Diego State’s road win at Kansas, along with their only loss being to Arizona, makes them a sneaky #3 at this point.
The 4’s – Baylor, Massachusetts, Kentucky and Iowa
Baylor has wins over Colorado, Kentucky and Dayton and the two losses (Syracuse and Iowa State) are of the quality variety. So why are they behind San Diego State…it is January 14th and they have played exactly one road game. Massachusetts keeps cruising along to a #4, while Kentucky moves up a spot as they continue their solid play. Did I mention the committee likes road wins? Iowa now owns one of the best and finally has that signature win to match-up with the eye test that says this team is really, really good.
The 5’s – Cincinnati, Creighton, Pittsburgh and Memphis
Pittsburgh is becoming an interesting team for this exercise. Kenpom loves them. Their record is 15-1. Their best win though is Stanford, and the ACC schedule will not provide them too many chances for great wins, although they do visit the Carrier Dome this weekend. Cincinnati and Memphis stay strong as the leaders of the AAC and Creighton got a really good win over Xavier on the weekend to separate themselves as the #2 team in the Big East.
The 6’s – Louisville, Duke, Oregon and Colorado
Duke got back on track with the win over Virginia last night, while Louisville had a nice win over SMU on Sunday. Louisville plays at Connecticut on Saturday and outside of hosting Cincinnati on Jan. 30, they play 7 teams with RPI’s over 174 in their next 9. Oregon has lost three straight and is lucky to land as a #6. Colorado now becomes a team to watch with the loss of Spencer Dinwiddie for the season. The Kansas win was with Dinwiddie, so the Buffaloes will be judged more on how they finish than most teams.
The 7’s – Gonzaga, New Mexico, Missouri and Connecticut
I keep finding Gonzaga and New Mexico similar in profile and hard to separate. The Lobos will have a better chance to distinguish themselves, but Gonzaga almost has to win at Memphis (Feb 8) to have much in the way of upward mobility. Missouri doesn’t have a great profile, but with just two losses, they still hold at 7. Their story seems like one that is yet to be written. Connecticut has the win over Florida leading their resume, but they could use the win Saturday over Louisville to stay out of the 8-9 territory.
The 8’s – Michigan, UCLA, Xavier and Virginia
Michigan has a rising profile now that they have started to play well sans Mitch McGary, with good wins over Florida State and Minnesota. The lack of a signature win, plus 4 losses is holding them here. UCLA now has Arizona State as their best win, but like Baylor, is 0-1 on the road. Xavier got a good wake-up call against Creighton, but still has a very solid resume. Virginia could have passed up Duke for 3rd in the ACC, but lost out on a great opportunity for a road win. Florida State and SMU wins are nice and are akin to Michigan’s at this juncture.
The 9’s – St. Louis, Florida State, VCU and Oklahoma
The Billikens are 6-0 on the road, albeit with Dayton as the best win in that group. Florida State’s best wins are Massachusetts and VCU, so it seems fitting to slot them in with 2 teams from the A-10 and one spot below two teams who have them as their best win. Sometimes, this stuff can actually make sense. Then comes VCU, who actually beat Virginia, who is seeded one higher, so maybe it doesn’t always make sense. Oklahoma makes the jump with the win over Iowa State and strong computer numbers. I like Kansas State’s wins a little better yet, but for now I will favor the Sooners.
The 10’s – Kansas State, Georgetown, California and North Carolina
I like Kansas State better than others, as quality wins like Gonzaga and Oklahoma State often erase bad losses like Northern Colorado. The Hoyas own wins over VCU and Kansas State, which makes this a fitting location. California has stormed out in PAC-12 play with 3 road wins, including Oregon and Stanford. The fact that Arkansas is their best non-conference win is what is currently holding them back a little. Finally there is North Carolina, who is a bit similar to Kansas State in that they have really good wins and in the Tar Heels case, just a lot of losses. I still have the Tar Heels in and their wins land them in this territory for seed. They need to figure it out soon though, or they will be this year’s Kentucky in the NIT.
The 11’s – Harvard, Tennessee, Minnesota and George Washington
Harvard’s spot is always difficult to gauge, but I figure somewhere right around where the bubble decisions really start, as they would be in that discussion if they were an at-large. Tennessee does this every year, pairing good wins with maddening losses. Right now, there are not too many, but home losses to Texas A&M should not be repeated. Minnesota almost got a huge win at Michigan State, so I am not dropping them like another conference foe. George Washington currently sits ahead of Dayton and will battle the bubble for the next 8 weeks.
The 12’s –UWGB, New Mexico State, Illinois, Dayton, SMU and Texas
UWGB and New Mexico State are auto bids. I think Illinois is in real trouble. The resume of wins is Missouri and, well, Missouri and some team is going to get squeezed out of the Big 10 race. After the loss to Northwestern, the Illini are the likely candidate. Dayton played St. Louis tough, but currently sits hosting a First Round game. SMU stays in for now, but this spot is tenuous. Texas is also back in, but needs to add some Top 50 wins along the way to support the resume of ok wins and no bad losses.
The 13’s – Akron, Louisiana Tech, Manhattan and North Dakota Stat
The 14’s – Belmont, UC-Irvine, Boston U. and Delaware
The 15’s – Georgia State, Stephen F. Austin, Mercer and Northern Colorado
The 16’s – Norfolk State, Robert Morris, Davidson, Southern, Radford and Stony Brook
Saturday, January 11, 2014
College Basketball 2013-14 - Field of 68 (January 11, 2014 edition)
I have seen enough…it is time to fully transition my
Field of 68 to a “based on what has happened thus far” methodology. Teams are now establishing resumes that can
be compared and contrasted, especially as conference play hits high gear here
in January. It will also allow for a
more fluid movement of teams based on current results vs future
expectations. One trend I was beginning
to see was the opening up of the last few spots in the field. The teams that looked like they were ready to
grab those spots based on decent non-conference showings have come out and
looked like NIT teams at best. So here
is the Field of 68 as I have it as of today.
The 1’s – Arizona, Syracuse, Wisconsin and
Iowa State
The four undefeated teams from the major conferences
occupy these spots. I see Michigan State
some places, but if the tournament started today, Iowa State has a better
schedule, better wins and did not lose to a 5-loss North Carolina team.
The 2’s – Michigan State, Ohio State,
Wichita State and Villanova
This
group consists of the remaining undefeated team (Wichita State), a one-loss
leader of the 3rd rated conference (Villanova) and the two one-loss
teams from the Big Ten that will be in play for a #1 seed all season long.
The 3’s – Florida, Oklahoma State, Colorado
and Kansas
The
best 2-loss teams in the country lead this group. Florida has started to look the part of a
higher seed and is the class of the SEC.
Oklahoma State has a couple good wins (Colorado, Memphis), but is
teetering on a slight fall with the loss of Michael Cobbins. Colorado has wins over Kansas and Oregon and
is establishing themselves as Arizona’s chief competition for the PAC-12
title. I debated over the last #3 right
now, but went with Kansas. The Jayhawks
have 4 losses, but with an RPI sitting at #2, a collection of really good wins
and no bad losses, I feel the committee will reward the Jayhawks for playing
the schedule they took on. As it
currently sits, there is no team with an RPI over 200 on their entire schedule,
played and un-played.
The 4’s – Baylor, Oregon, San Diego State
and Massachusetts
Baylor
and Oregon are 2-loss teams whose wins are not quite as good as teams on the
3-line. Both teams have the
non-conference resumes to be seeded higher if they can get it going in league
play. Finally, the 1-loss leaders of the
Mountain West and Atlantic 10 gain the last two 4’s. Both of these conferences are well-respected
and the Aztecs have a victories over Kansas and Creighton in their pocket,
while the Minutemen sit at #4 in the RPI.
The 5’s – Cincinnati, Kentucky, Duke and
Memphis
While
the SOS #’s never love Cincinnati, they have wins over Pittsburgh, Memphis and
NC State and lead the AAC. The
discussion of playing teams with RPI’s in the 300’s vs those in the low 200’s
is for another day. Kentucky has quietly
righted the ship and has 6 top 100 wins.
Duke is a bit of an enigma, but has played a decent schedule and owns
wins over Michigan and UCLA. I don’t
love them here yet, but I have a hard time seeing the committee putting Xavier
ahead of them with the same amount of losses.
Memphis, with wins over Oklahoma State and Louisville grabs the last 5
spot.
The 6’s – Xavier, Creighton, Pittsburgh and
Iowa
The
Musketeers are quietly putting together a good season, with wins over
Tennessee, Cincinnati and Wake Forest.
Not sure what happened in the Bahamas, but the rest of the season has
been solid. Creighton and Pittsburgh
have strong records, but haven’t really beaten a string of quality
opponents. Both teams have upward mobility
if they start doing that in conference play.
Iowa has lost to Villanova, Iowa State and Wisconsin, and you see where
those teams sit. The Xavier and Notre
Dame wins are nice enough to grab the last 6.
The 7’s – Louisville, Gonzaga, Missouri and New
Mexico
If not
for North Carolina, Louisville would be the biggest seeding conundrum of the
Field. They are the defending champs and
have only 3 losses, but when Southern Miss is by far your best win? Gonzaga gets some computer love, but the WCC
is not helping them and the loss to Portland does not either. Missouri has the ugly loss to Georgia, but
decent wins vs UCLA, NC State and West Virginia make them a difficult 2-loss
team to seed. New Mexico has similar
computer numbers to Gonzaga, but a better win than the Zags (Cincinnati) and no
bad losses.
The 8’s – Connecticut, Michigan, North
Carolina and Kansas State
Connecticut
had a bad trip to the State of Texas, but still has that Florida win to hang
their hat on. Michigan has a rising
profile now that they have started to play well sans Mitch McGary, with good
wins over Florida State and Minnesota.
Right now I am pegging North Carolina here, as the 5 losses are not
pretty, but the wins over Michigan State, Kentucky and Louisville? are. Kansas State has a nice little run going,
including wins over Gonzaga and Oklahoma State.
The 9’s – Tennessee, UCLA, Virginia and
Illinois
Tennessee
has beaten Xavier, Virginia and Wake Forest for a nice little collection of
wins. UCLA looks the part, but UCSB is
the best win to date. Virginia started
slow, but has come on as of late. Wins
over Florida State, SMU and Wake Forest is the start of a good collection. Illinois is a better version of UCLA on the
computers, with the win over Missouri to boot.
The 10’s – VCU, Minnesota, Florida State and
St. Louis
The
Atlantic 10 finds two teams on this line, both who have some upward
potential. VCU has to add to their win
over Virginia and St. Louis is still looking for its first top 50 win. Minnesota and Florida State join them, each
with middling resumes that could take them either way at this point.
The 11’s – Harvard, Southern Miss,
Georgetown and Dayton
Harvard’s
spot is always difficult to gauge, but I figure somewhere right around where
the bubble decisions really start, as they would be in that discussion if they
were an at-large. Southern Miss is very
similar to Harvard in resume. Both teams
could see a bump back to the 12 line if the bottom of the at-large field
solidifies itself. Georgetown is another
team that is tough to figure out, while Dayton has to hope the Gonzaga win
stays strong and they can add some quality A-10 wins to it.
The 12’s –UWGB, California, Oklahoma, Arizona
State, SMU and George Washington
UWGB is
an auto bid. Cal enters the field after
a huge road win at Oregon. George
Washington is still on solid footing with the Creighton win and 5 top-100
victories. The last 3, I basically threw
darts at. I feel a Big 12 team
(Oklahoma, Texas or West Virginia) is destined for the first four this year,
with the overall strength of the conference, but someone has to be around .500
in league play. SMU is in the top 50 in
RPI, KenPom, Sagarin and BPI, despite only the win over UConn. Finally, Arizona State edges out some of the
ACC and SEC bubble teams, as well as St. Mary’s and Boise State at this
point. The Sun Devils are top 40 in 3 of
the rating systems and just need to boost up their RPI.
The 13’s – Ohio, New Mexico State, UCSB and
North Dakota State
The 14’s – Belmont, Manhattan, Boston U. and
Delaware
The 15’s – Georgia State, Stephen F. Austin,
St. Francis (NY) and North Carolina Central
The 16’s – Northern Colorado, Davidson, Southern,
Radford, Florida Gulf Coast and Stony Brook
Friday, January 3, 2014
College Basketball 2013-14 - Field of 68 (January 3, 2014 edition)
A few things happened Thursday night. Michigan won at Minnesota, pushing them back into the bracket after a short hiatus. This home loss could signal that Minnesota is more the team we thought in the pre-season and is headed for a couple months on the bubble. For now, I will drop them a seed from yesterday. Conveniently, Stanford opened PAC-12 play with a home loss and has disappeared from today's Field. Memo to Stanford...beating only Connecticut will not get you into the Field. St. Mary's was blown out by Gonzaga and is barely holding onto a spot. With very few chances at quality wins, the Gaels are one bad loss from being on the wrong side of the bubble. I also flipped Dayton and George Washington's seeds, mostly because I can. I will try and bracket these up at some point as well.
Games to keep an eye on this weekend: Drexel at Southern Miss, Cincinnati at Memphis, Pittsburgh at NC State, St. John's at Georgetown, Michigan State at Indiana, Connecticut at SMU, Butler at Xavier, Oklahoma State at Kansas State, Duke at Notre Dame, Virginia at Florida State, Oklahoma at Texas, Iowa at Wisconsin, San Diego State at Kansas and Oregon at Colorado
The 1's - Arizona, Syracuse, Ohio State and Michigan State
The 2's - Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Oregon and Florida
The 3's - Wichita State, Kansas, Villanova and Iowa State
The 4's - Baylor, Louisville, Duke, and Memphis
The 5's - North Carolina, Kentucky, Colorado and Iowa
The 6's - Gonzaga, Massachusetts, Missouri and Connecticut
The 7's - San Diego State, Creighton, Illinois and Florida State
The 8's - Harvard, New Mexico, LSU and UCLA
The 9's - Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Texas and Xavier
The 10's - VCU, Minnesota, Georgetown and St. Louis
The 11's - Arkansas, Boise State, George Washington and Michigan
The 12's - St. Mary's, Dayton, Tennessee, Kansas State, Toledo and Southern Miss
The 13's - UCSB, North Dakota State, New Mexico State and Manhattan
The 14's - Belmont, UWGB, Louisiana-Lafayette and Drexel
The 15's - Florida Gulf Coast, Stephen F Austin, Boston U. and St. Francis (NY)
The 16's - Radford (1st Rd), NC Central, Texas Southern (1st Rd), Stony Brook (1st Rd), Northern Colorado and Elon (1st Rd)
Games to keep an eye on this weekend: Drexel at Southern Miss, Cincinnati at Memphis, Pittsburgh at NC State, St. John's at Georgetown, Michigan State at Indiana, Connecticut at SMU, Butler at Xavier, Oklahoma State at Kansas State, Duke at Notre Dame, Virginia at Florida State, Oklahoma at Texas, Iowa at Wisconsin, San Diego State at Kansas and Oregon at Colorado
The 1's - Arizona, Syracuse, Ohio State and Michigan State
The 2's - Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Oregon and Florida
The 3's - Wichita State, Kansas, Villanova and Iowa State
The 4's - Baylor, Louisville, Duke, and Memphis
The 5's - North Carolina, Kentucky, Colorado and Iowa
The 6's - Gonzaga, Massachusetts, Missouri and Connecticut
The 7's - San Diego State, Creighton, Illinois and Florida State
The 8's - Harvard, New Mexico, LSU and UCLA
The 9's - Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Texas and Xavier
The 10's - VCU, Minnesota, Georgetown and St. Louis
The 11's - Arkansas, Boise State, George Washington and Michigan
The 12's - St. Mary's, Dayton, Tennessee, Kansas State, Toledo and Southern Miss
The 13's - UCSB, North Dakota State, New Mexico State and Manhattan
The 14's - Belmont, UWGB, Louisiana-Lafayette and Drexel
The 15's - Florida Gulf Coast, Stephen F Austin, Boston U. and St. Francis (NY)
The 16's - Radford (1st Rd), NC Central, Texas Southern (1st Rd), Stony Brook (1st Rd), Northern Colorado and Elon (1st Rd)
|
|
EAST
(New York)
|
MIDWEST
(Indy)
|
SOUTH
(Arlington)
|
WEST
(Anaheim)
|
|
(1)
|
Syracuse
|
Ohio State
|
Michigan State
|
Arizona
|
|
(16)
|
Radford/Stony Brook
|
Texas Southern/Elon
|
NC Central
|
Northern Colorado
|
|
|
Buffalo,
NY
|
St.
Louis, MO
|
Milwaukee,
WI
|
San
Diego, CA
|
|
(8)
|
LSU
|
UCLA
|
Harvard
|
New Mexico
|
|
(9)
|
Cincinnati
|
Pittsburgh
|
Xavier
|
Texas
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(5)
|
Iowa
|
Kentucky
|
Colorado
|
North Carolina
|
|
(12)
|
Southern Miss
|
Kansas State/St. Mary’s
|
Tennessee/Dayton
|
Toledo
|
|
|
San
Diego, CA
|
Raleigh,
NC
|
Orlando,
FL
|
Spokane,
WA
|
|
(4)
|
Baylor
|
Louisville
|
Duke
|
Memphis
|
|
(13)
|
North Dakota State
|
Manhattan
|
New Mexico State
|
UCSB
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(6)
|
Connecticut
|
Massachusetts
|
Missouri
|
Gonzaga
|
|
(11)
|
Arkansas
|
Boise State
|
Michigan
|
George Washington
|
|
|
Buffalo,
NY
|
San
Antonio, TX
|
San
Antonio, TX
|
Raleigh,
NC
|
|
(3)
|
Villanova
|
Kansas
|
Wichita State
|
Iowa State
|
|
(14)
|
Belmont
|
Louisiana-Lafayette
|
Drexel
|
UWGB
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(7)
|
Florida State
|
Creighton
|
San Diego State
|
Illinois
|
|
(10)
|
St. Louis
|
Minnesota
|
VCU
|
Georgetown
|
|
|
Milwaukee,
WI
|
Spokane,
WA
|
St.
Louis, MO
|
Orlando,
FL
|
|
(2)
|
Wisconsin
|
Oregon
|
Oklahoma State
|
Florida
|
|
(15)
|
Boston U.
|
Stephen F. Austin
|
Florida Gulf Coast
|
St. Francis (NY)
|
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