College Football Bowl Projections - December 3, 2013

It is Championship Game Week, sprinkled with bedlam and a few other meaningful games.  Speculating on bowl destinations is commonplace and I am always willing to put my spin on things.  I am going to provide 4 sets of projections, just so one can see how it might play out.  In all projections, I am assuming a Florida State victory over Duke.  I am also going on record picking Missouri to win the SEC Championship, Arizona State to win the PAC 12 Championship and Oklahoma State to win Bedlam.

PROJECTION #1 (Ohio State wins, Northern Illinois wins and Michigan State stays in Top 14)

BCS National Championship Game:  Florida State Seminoles vs Ohio State Buckeyes
Rose Bowl:  Arizona State Sun Devils vs Michigan State Spartans
Sugar Bowl:  Missouri Tigers vs UCF Golden Knights
Orange Bowl:  Clemson Tigers vs Alabama Crimson Tide
Fiesta Bowl:  Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Northern Illinois Huskies

The Orange Bowl will be silly not to pick Alabama to replace Florida State in all scenarios. The Rose will take Michigan State if they are in the Top 14. Finally, I believe the Orange will stay true to their ACC tie and take a very good 2-loss Clemson team.

PROJECTION #2 (Ohio State loses, Northern Illinois wins)

BCS National Championship Game: Florida State Seminoles vs Missouri Tigers
Rose Bowl: Arizona State Sun Devils vs Michigan State Spartans
Sugar Bowl:  Ohio State Buckeyes vs UCF Golden Knights
Orange Bowl: Clemson Tigers vs Alabama Crimson Tide
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Northern Illinois Huskies

 The only change in these two scenarios is the flip between Ohio State and Missouri (or Auburn for those that disagree with me on the SEC result).  The rest of the bowls could shake-out like this for both of these Projections...

Capital One Bowl:  Auburn Tigers vs Wisconsin Badgers
Cotton Bowl:  Texas A&M Aggies vs Baylor Bears
Alamo Bowl:  Oregon Ducks vs Oklahoma Sooners
Outback Bowl:  South Carolina Gamecocks vs Iowa Hawkeyes
Russell Athletic Bowl:  Louisville Cardinals vs Miami Hurricanes
Chick Fil-A Bowl:  LSU Tigers vs Duke Blue Devils
Holiday Bowl:  Stanford Cardinal vs Kansas State Wildcats
Sun Bowl:  UCLA Bruins vs Virginia Tech Hokies
Gator Bowl:  Georgia Bulldogs vs Michigan Wolverines
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl:  Nebraska Cornhuskers vs Texas Longhorns
Music City Bowl:  Ole Miss Rebels vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Belk Bowl:  North Carolina Tar Heels vs Cincinnati Bearcats
Advocare V100 Bowl:  Boston College Eagles vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Pinstripe Bowl:  Rutgers Scarlett Knights vs Maryland Terrapins
Military Bowl:  East Carolina Pirates vs Pittsburgh Panthers
Liberty Bowl:  Vanderbilt Commodores vs Marshall Thundering Herd
Las Vegas Bowl:  USC Trojans vs Fresno State Bulldogs
Texas Bowl:  Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Texas Tech Red Raiders
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl:  BYU Cougars vs Washington Huskies
New Mexico Bowl:  Arizona Wildcats vs Boise State Broncos
Armed Forces Bowl:  Navy Midshipmen vs Utah State Aggies
Poinsettia Bowl:  San Diego State Aztecs vs Toledo Rockets
Hawaii Bowl:  Rice Owls vs UNLV Running Rebels
Heart of Dallas Bowl:  North Texas Mean Green vs Syracuse Orange
Beef O'Brady's Bowl:  Middle Tennesse State Blue Raiders vs Ohio Bobcats
New Orleans Bowl:  Tulane Green Wave vs Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
Little Caesars Bowl: Bowling Green Falcons vs Washington State Cougars
GoDaddy.com Bowl: Ball State Cardinals vs Arkansas State Red Wolves
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl:  Buffalo Bulls vs Colorado State Rams
BBVA Compass Bowl:  Houston Cougars vs Mississippi State Bulldogs

PROJECTION #3 (Ohio State wins, Northern Illinois wins, Michigan State falls out of top 14)

BCS National Championship Game: Florida State Seminoles vs Ohio State Buckeyes
Rose Bowl: Arizona State Sun Devils vs Baylor Bears
Sugar Bowl: Missouri Tigers vs UCF Golden Knights
Orange Bowl: Clemson Tigers vs Alabama Crimson Tide
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Northern Illinois Huskies

The Rose Bowl will be left to choose between Baylor and Clemson if the Orange snatches up Alabama, leaving an odd Rose Bowl match-up.  I am not sure Michigan State can fall 5 spots, but it is has a trickle-down effect if it does...including a possible change for Notre Dame.  The Irish would prefer a warm weather destination, and the Holiday Bowl might be willing to negotiate a deal to take them over Texas Tech with other Big 12 ties left in the hopper. 

Capital One Bowl: Auburn Tigers vs Michigan State Spartans
Cotton Bowl: Texas A&M Aggies vs Texas Longhorns
Alamo Bowl: Oregon Ducks vs Oklahoma Sooners
Outback Bowl: South Carolina Gamecocks vs Wisconsin Badgers
Russell Athletic Bowl: Louisville Cardinals vs Miami Hurricanes
Chick Fil-A Bowl: LSU Tigers vs Duke Blue Devils
Holiday Bowl:  UCLA Bruins vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Sun Bowl:  Stanford Cardinal vs Virginia Tech Hokies
Gator Bowl: Georgia Bulldogs vs Iowa Hawkeyes
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Nebraska Cornhuskers vs Kansas State Wildcats
Music City Bowl: Ole Miss Rebels vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Belk Bowl: North Carolina Tar Heels vs Cincinnati Bearcats
Advocare V100 Bowl: Boston College Eagles vs Washington State Cougars
Pinstripe Bowl: Rutgers Scarlett Knights vs Maryland Terrapins
Military Bowl: East Carolina Pirates vs Pittsburgh Panthers
Liberty Bowl: Vanderbilt Commodores vs Marshall Thundering Herd
Las Vegas Bowl: USC Trojans vs Fresno State Bulldogs
Texas Bowl:  Michigan Wolverines vs Texas Tech Red Raiders
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: BYU Cougars vs Washington Huskies
New Mexico Bowl: Arizona Wildcats vs Boise State Broncos
Armed Forces Bowl: Navy Midshipmen vs Utah State Aggies
Poinsettia Bowl: San Diego State Aztecs vs Toledo Rockets
Hawaii Bowl: Rice Owls vs UNLV Running Rebels
Heart of Dallas Bowl: North Texas Mean Green vs Minnesota Golden Gophers
Beef O'Brady's Bowl: Middle Tennesse State Blue Raiders vs Ohio Bobcats
New Orleans Bowl: Tulane Green Wave vs Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
Little Caesars Bowl: Bowling Green Falcons vs Syracuse Orange
GoDaddy.com Bowl: Ball State Cardinals vs Arkansas State Red Wolves
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Buffalo Bulls vs Colorado State Rams
BBVA Compass Bowl: Houston Cougars vs Mississippi State Bulldogs

PROJECTION #4 (Ohio State wins, Northern Illinois loses, Michigan State stays in Top 14)

BCS National Championship Game: Florida State Seminoles vs Ohio State Buckeyes
Rose Bowl: Arizona State Sun Devils vs Michigan State Spartans
Sugar Bowl: Missouri Tigers vs Baylor Bears
Orange Bowl: Clemson Tigers vs Alabama Crimson Tide
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State Cowboys vs UCF Golden Knights

Similar in concept, Baylor is once again added to the mix.  If the Bears lose to Texas, Oregon becomes the next best option in this scenario.

Capital One Bowl: Auburn Tigers vs Wisconsin Badgers
Cotton Bowl: Texas A&M Aggies vs Texas Longhorns
Alamo Bowl: Oregon Ducks vs Oklahoma Sooners
Outback Bowl: South Carolina Gamecocks vs Iowa Hawkeyes
Russell Athletic Bowl: Louisville Cardinals vs Miami Hurricanes
Chick Fil-A Bowl: LSU Tigers vs Duke Blue Devils
Holiday Bowl:  UCLA Brunis vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Sun Bowl:  Stanford Cardinal vs Virginia Tech Hokies
Gator Bowl: Georgia Bulldogs vs Michigan Wolverines
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Nebraska Cornhuskers vs Kansas State Wildcats
Music City Bowl: Ole Miss Rebels vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Belk Bowl: North Carolina Tar Heels vs Cincinnati Bearcats
Advocare V100 Bowl: Boston College Eagles vs Oregon State Beavers
Pinstripe Bowl: Rutgers Scarlett Knights vs Maryland Terrapins
Military Bowl: East Carolina Pirates vs Pittsburgh Panthers
Liberty Bowl: Vanderbilt Commodores vs Marshall Thundering Herd
Las Vegas Bowl: USC Trojans vs Fresno State Bulldogs
Texas Bowl: Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Texas Tech Red Raiders
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: BYU Cougars vs Washington Huskies
New Mexico Bowl: Arizona Wildcats vs San Diego State Aztecs
Armed Forces Bowl: Navy Midshipmen vs Utah State Aggies
Poinsettia Bowl:  Boise State Broncos vs Northern Illinois Huskies
Hawaii Bowl: Rice Owls vs UNLV Running Rebels
Heart of Dallas Bowl: North Texas Mean Green vs Syracuse Orange
Beef O'Brady's Bowl: Middle Tennesse State Blue Raiders vs Toledo Rockets
New Orleans Bowl: Tulane Green Wave vs Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
Little Caesars Bowl: Buffalo Bulls vs Washington State Cougars
GoDaddy.com Bowl: Bowling Green Falcons vs Arkansas State Red Wolves
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Ball State Cardinals vs Colorado State Rams
BBVA Compass Bowl: Houston Cougars vs Mississippi State Bulldogs

College Football 2013 - Bowl Projections (as of November 26, 2013)

With one regular week and a week of Championship games plus miscellaneous finales remaining, the Bowl picture has started to take shape.  There are only a few teams that can still become bowl-eligible, so the pool of teams is solidifying itself.  My estimate is that 75 teams will be bowl-eligible, meaning 5 of those teams will be left out of the mix.  Below is my conjecture as to where teams might be playing around the Holidays.

BCS National Championship Game:  Alabama Crimson Tide vs Florida State Seminoles
Rose Bowl:  Ohio State Buckeyes vs Arizona State Sun Devils
Sugar Bowl:  Auburn Tigers vs UCF Golden Knights
Orange Bowl:  Clemson Tigers vs Wisconsin Badgers
Fiesta Bowl:  Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Fresno State Bulldogs

Obviously a lot could change here with an upset or two, but if the favorites take care of business, this is what I see for the BCS.  Arizona State might be the biggest surprise, but a win over Arizona puts them at home for the PAC-12 Championship Game and they have been the conference's best team of late as is.

Capital One Bowl:  Missouri Tigers vs Michigan State Spartans
Cotton Bowl:  LSU Tigers vs Baylor Bears
Alamo Bowl:  Oregon Ducks vs Oklahoma Sooners
Outback Bowl:  Nebraska Cornhuskers vs Texas A&M Aggies
Russell Athletic Bowl:  Duke Blue Devils vs Louisville Cardinals
Chick Fil-A Bowl:  Miami Hurricanes vs South Carolina Gamecocks
Holiday Bowl:  Stanford Cardinal vs Texas Tech Red Raiders
Sun Bowl:  USC Trojans vs Virginia Tech Hokies
Gator Bowl:  Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Georgia Bulldogs
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl:  Iowa Hawkeyes vs Texas Longhorns
Music City Bowl:  Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Ole Miss Rebels
Belk Bowl:  North Carolina Tar Heels vs Houston Cougars
Advocare V100 Bowl:  Boston College Eagles vs Northern Illinois Huskies
Pinstripe Bowl:  Cincinnati Bearcats vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Military Bowl:  Pittsburgh Panthers vs East Carolina Pirates
Liberty Bowl:  Vanderbilt Commodores vs Marshall Thundering Herd
Las Vegas Bowl:  UCLA Bruins vs Utah State Aggies
Texas Bowl:  Michigan Wolverines vs Kansas State Wildcats
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl:  BYU Cougars vs Washington Huskies
New Mexico Bowl:  Arizona Wildcats vs Colorado State Rams
Armed Forces Bowl:  Navy Midshipmen vs Boise State Broncos
Poinsettia Bowl:  San Diego State Aztecs vs Arkansas State Red Wolves
Hawaii Bowl:  Rice Owls vs UNLV Running Rebels
Heart of Dallas Bowl:  North Texas Mean Green vs Oregon State Beavers
Beef O'Brady's Bowl:  Middle Tennesse State Blue Raiders vs Ohio Bobcats
New Orleans Bowl:  Tulane Green Wave vs Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
Little Caesars Bowl:  Ball State Cardinals vs Maryland Terrapins
GoDaddy.com Bowl:  Buffalo Bulls vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl:  Toledo Rockets vs Washington State Cougars
BBVA Compass Bowl:  Rutgers Scarlett Knights vs Bowling Green Falcons

Bowl-Eligible teams not selected:  UTSA, Florida Atlantic, Central Michigan, Troy and Texas State

College Football 2013 - Week 8 Reset

Week 8 of the 2013 College Football season is complete.  Here is a conference-by-conference look that I will update throughout the season.

BIG TEN	CURRENT RECORD	PREDICTED RECORD	PROJECTED RECORD	BOWL PROJECTION
Ohio State	3-0, 7-0	7-1, 12-1	7-1, 12-1	Rose Bowl
Wisconsin	3-1, 5-2	6-2, 9-3	7-1, 10-2	Outback Bowl
Penn State	1-1, 4-2	4-4, 8-4	4-4, 7-5
Indiana	1-2, 3-4	3-5, 6-6	4-4, 6-6	Little Caesars Bowl
Purdue	0-3, 1-6	1-7, 2-10	0-8, 1-11
Illinois	0-2, 3-3	0-8, 2-10	1-7, 4-8
Nebraska	2-0, 5-1	7-1, 11-2	7-1, 10-3	Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl
Michigan	2-1, 6-1	6-2, 10-2	6-2, 10-2	Capital One Bowl
Northwestern	0-3, 4-3	6-2, 10-2	2-6, 6-6	Heart of Dallas Bowl
Michigan State	3-0, 6-1	5-3, 8-4	6-2, 9-3	Gator Bowl
Iowa	1-2, 4-3	2-6, 4-8	3-5, 6-6	Meineke Car Care Bowl
Minnesota	1-2, 5-2	1-7, 4-8	1-7, 5-7

 BIG TEN QUICK HITS: 

• A promising season for Northwestern has been derailed by a combination of factors.  Injuries are never an excuse, but they are not helping the Wildcats.  They were probably over-hyped to begin with and are now fighting for their bowl life.  A loss this week at Iowa will make things very difficult with Nebraska, Michigan and Michigan State still on the schedule.
• It looks like the Indiana-Minnesota game on November 2nd might be for the final Big 10 bowl slot.  The Hoosiers just need to take care of business at home, which is easier said than done for this program.
• Michigan State was looking unstoppable on offense and then they played Purdue.  What?  Was that a bump in the road or the reason they will not win the Legends?
• Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State are bowl-eligible.  The winner of the Nebraska/Minnesota game will become bowl-eligible this week.

PAC 12	CURRENT RECORD	PREDICTED RECORD	PROJECTED RECORD	BOWL PROJECTION
Oregon	4-0, 7-0	9-0, 13-0	9-0, 13-0	BCS National Championship
Stanford	4-1, 6-1	7-2, 10-2	7-2, 10-2	Rose Bowl
Washington	1-3, 4-3	5-4, 8-4	5-4, 8-4	Sun Bowl
Oregon State	4-0, 6-1	5-4, 8-4	5-4, 7-5	New Mexico Bowl
California	0-4, 1-6	2-7, 3-9	1-8, 2-10
Washington State	2-3, 4-4	1-8, 3-9	2-7, 4-8
Arizona State	3-1, 5-2	7-2, 9-4	7-2, 9-3	Holiday Bowl
UCLA	2-1, 5-1	6-3, 8-4	7-2, 10-3	Alamo Bowl
USC	1-2, 4-3	6-3, 9-4	4-5, 7-6	Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Arizona	1-2, 4-2	4-5, 7-5	4-5, 7-5	Las Vegas Bowl
Utah	1-3, 4-3	2-7, 3-9	3-6, 6-6	Military Bowl
Colorado	0-3, 3-3	0-9, 1-11	0-9, 3-9

PAC 12 QUICK HITS: 

• Stanford, USC, Arizona State, Washington and Oregon.  In case you are wondering, that is the remaining schedule for the Beavers of Oregon State.  They are the opposite of Washington, who played the toughest part of the schedule first.  The game between Washington and Oregon State will likely decide a better bowl destination.
• I thought Colorado would win a PAC-12 game, but now I don't believe that, although they do host Cal.
• Somehow, some way, I think Utah scrapes out bowl-eligibility.  It is just what that program does.
• Oregon, Stanford and Oregon State are bowl-eligible.  UCLA can become bowl-eligible this week.

SEC	CURRENT RECORD	PREDICTED RECORD	PROJECTED RECORD	BOWL PROJECTION
South Carolina	3-2, 5-2	7-1, 11-2	5-3, 8-4	Gator Bowl
Georgia	3-2, 4-3	6-2, 9-3	5-3, 8-4	Chick Fil-A Bowl
Florida	3-2, 4-3	5-3, 8-4	4-4, 6-6	Liberty Bowl
Vanderbilt	1-3, 4-3	4-4, 8-4	3-5, 7-5	Advocare V100 Bowl
Missouri	3-0, 7-0	2-6, 6-6	7-1, 11-2	Outback Bowl
Tennessee	1-2, 4-3	2-6, 5-7	3-5, 6-6	BBVA Compass Bowl
Kentucky	0-3, 1-5	0-8, 2-10	0-8, 2-10
Texas A&M	2-2, 5-2	8-0, 13-0	5-3, 9-3	Capital One Bowl
Alabama	4-0, 7-0	7-1, 11-1	7-1, 12-1	Sugar Bowl
Ole Miss	2-3, 4-3	5-3, 8-4	4-4, 8-4	Music City Bowl
LSU	3-2, 6-2	4-4, 8-4	6-2, 10-2	Orange Bowl
Auburn	3-1, 6-1	3-5, 7-5	5-3, 9-3	Cotton Bowl
Mississippi State	0-2, 3-3	2-6, 5-7	1-7, 4-8
Arkansas	0-4, 3-5	1-7, 5-7	1-7, 4-8

 SEC QUICK HITS: 

• You would have won a lot of money if you had a parlay with South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, LSU and Texas A&M all losing on the same Saturday.  The effect on these teams is disappointing seasons that will in all likelihood end up outside of a BCS bowl.  Right now I have LSU sneaking into the Orange, but that is with the floundering chance they defeat Alabama.
• Alabama is hoping Missouri and Auburn continue their surprising seasons so that those potential victories, along with one over LSU will cement the Tide in the BCS Title Game.  I am sure it will happen, I just won't put it in print.
• Injuries have been a factor in the SEC this year, but Georgia's defense is young, Florida has no quarterback, A&M has no defense and Ole Miss is relying on freshman.  Some of this was to be expected, but these teams got the benefit of the doubt.
• Missouri, Alabama, Auburn and LSU are bowl-eligible.  South Carolina and Texas A&M can become bowl-eligible this week.

Big 12	CURRENT RECORD	PREDICTED RECORD	PROJECTED RECORD	BOWL PROJECTION
Oklahoma State	2-1, 5-1	8-1, 11-1	6-3, 9-3	Cotton Bowl
Oklahoma	3-1, 6-1	7-2, 10-2	6-3, 9-3	Alamo Bowl
Texas	3-0, 4-2	7-2, 10-2	7-2, 8-4	Holiday Bowl
Baylor	3-0, 6-0	6-3, 9-3	8-1, 11-1	Fiesta Bowl
Kansas State	0-3, 2-4	6-3, 9-3	4-5, 6-6	Pinstripe Bowl
TCU	1-3, 3-4	5-4, 7-5	4-5, 6-6	Meineke Car Care Bowl
Texas Tech	4-0, 7-0	3-6, 6-6	6-3, 9-3	Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl
West Virginia	1-3, 3-4	2-7, 5-7	2-7, 4-8
Iowa State	0-3, 1-5	1-8, 3-9	1-8, 2-10
Kansas	0-3, 2-4	0-9, 1-11	1-8, 3-9

 Big 12 Synopsis: 

• If Texas finishes as projected, Mack Brown should get an apology.  Things are not perfect for the Longhorns, but a win over Oklahoma can save a season.
• I am confused by the Sooners, but we will find out about them and Texas Tech this weekend.  If the Red Raiders pull the upset, it looks like Baylor and Texas Tech to the finish in the Big 12.  Just like everybody thought.
• Oklahoma State can still have a say, but they better figure out their road problems with games at Texas Tech and at Texas looming.  The good news is that they can take care of all the teams in front of them yet.
• Kansas State desperately needs a win over West Virginia this week.  Bill Snyder's magic may have left with Colin Klein.
• Baylor, Oklahoma and Texas Tech are bowl-eligible.  Oklahoma State can become bowl-eligible this week.

ACC	CURRENT RECORD	PREDICTED RECORD	PROJECTED RECORD	BOWL PROJECTION
Florida State	4-0, 6-0	8-0, 13-0	8-0, 13-0	BCS National Championship
Clemson	4-1, 6-1	7-1, 10-2	7-1, 11-1	Sugar Bowl
Maryland	1-2, 5-2	4-4, 7-5	3-5, 7-5	Music City Bowl
NC State	0-3, 3-3	3-5, 6-6	2-6, 5-7
Boston College	1-2, 3-3	2-6, 5-7	2-6, 5-7
Syracuse	1-2, 3-4	2-6, 4-8	3-5, 5-7
Wake Forest	2-2, 4-3	1-7, 3-9	3-5, 5-7
Virginia Tech	3-0, 6-1	7-1, 10-3	7-1, 10-2	Russell Athletic Bowl
Miami FL	2-0, 6-0	6-2, 9-3	7-1, 11-2	Chick-Fil-A Bowl
Georgia Tech	3-2, 4-3	5-3, 8-4	5-3, 7-5	Belk Bowl
North Carolina	0-3, 1-5	6-2, 9-3	3-5, 5-7
Pittsburgh	2-2, 4-2	3-5, 6-6	4-4, 7-5	Sun Bowl
Duke	1-2, 5-2	1-7, 4-8	2-6, 6-6	Advocare V100 Bowl
Virginia	0-3, 2-5	1-7, 3-9	0-8, 2-10

 ACC Synopsis:

• Well, at least I have been correct about Florida State.  The Seminoles look awesome, but they must still navigate Miami, FL, Florida and then potentially Miami, FL again.  And doesn't it always seem they lose a low scoring game they were expected to cruise in?
• Clemson will still have a very successful season, just not the one they ultimately hoped for after beating Georgia.
• Injuries have likely put a damper on what looked like a really good season for Maryland.  When your two starting receivers both break their leg in the same game, you start wondering what the Terps ever did to the football gods.
• I have 5 ACC teams at 5-7, so the odds are pretty good that another team gets bowl-eligible.  
• Florida State, Miami, FL, Clemson and Virginia Tech are bowl-eligible.  Maryland and Duke can become bowl-eligible this week.

AAC	CURRENT RECORD	PREDICTED RECORD	PROJECTED RECORD	BOWL PROJECTION
Louisville	2-1, 6-1	7-1, 11-1	7-1, 11-1	Russell Athletic Bowl
Cincinnati	2-1, 5-2	6-2, 10-2	5-3, 8-4	Pinstripe Bowl
UCF	2-0, 5-1	6-2, 8-4	8-0, 11-1	Orange Bowl
Rutgers	1-1, 4-2	5-3, 7-5	6-2, 9-3	Belk Bowl
Houston	2-0, 5-1	4-4, 6-6	4-4, 7-5	BBVA Compass Bowl
South Florida	2-0, 2-4	3-5, 5-7	3-5, 3-9
Connecticut	0-2, 0-6	3-5, 4-8	0-8, 0-12
SMU	1-1, 2-4	3-5, 4-8	4-4, 5-7
Memphis	0-3, 1-5	2-6, 4-8	2-6, 4-8
Temple	0-3, 1-6	1-7, 4-8	1-7, 2-10

 AAC Synopsis:

• I pointed toward the UCF game for Louisville and the Golden Knights did not disappoint.  Do you think playing in close games against Penn State and South Carolina helped more than derailing Florida International?  We will never know, but UCF is now in the drivers seat for a BCS bowl.
• Louisville is bowl-eligible.  UCF and Houston can become bowl-eligible this week.

Mountain West	CURRENT RECORD	PREDICTED RECORD	PROJECTED RECORD	BOWL PROJECTION
Boise State	3-1, 5-2	6-2, 9-4	6-2, 8-5	Poinsettia Bowl
Utah State	3-1, 4-4	6-2, 9-3	5-3, 6-6	New Mexico Bowl
Wyoming	2-1, 4-3	4-4, 7-5	4-4, 6-6	Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Air Force	0-5, 1-6	4-4, 6-6	2-6, 4-8
Colorado State	1-1, 3-4	2-6, 5-8	5-3, 7-6	Armed Forces Bowl
New Mexico	0-3, 2-5	1-7, 3-9	1-7, 3-9
Fresno State	3-0, 6-0	7-1, 12-1	8-0, 12-0*	Fiesta Bowl
San Jose State	2-1, 3-3	6-2, 9-3	5-3, 7-5	Las Vegas Bowl
San Diego State	2-0, 3-3	5-3, 7-5	5-3, 6-6	Hawaii Bowl
Nevada	2-2, 3-4	4-4, 5-7	4-4, 5-7
UNLV	2-1, 4-3	2-6, 4-8	3-5, 5-7
Hawaii	0-4, 0-6	1-7, 1-11	0-8, 0-12

*No make-up game has been scheduled for the Colorado-Fresno State cancellation.

 Mountain West Synopsis:

• Fresno State still looks like the best BCS buster from the non AQ conferences.  Injuries and disappointments have taken away many of the top contenders.  Plus the Bulldogs are starting to get it rolling.
• It is hard to trust many of these teams, but it looks like they will at least fill their bowl allotment.
• Fresno State is bowl-eligible.  Boise State can become bowl-eligible this week.

C-USA	CURRENT RECORD	PREDICTED RECORD	PROJECTED RECORD	BOWL PROJECTION
East Carolina	3-1, 5-2	7-1, 10-3	7-1, 11-2	Liberty Bowl
Marshall	2-0, 4-2	6-2, 8-4	7-1, 9-3	Heart of Dallas Bowl
Middle Tennessee	1-2, 3-4	5-3, 7-5	4-4, 6-6	Military Bowl
UAB	1-1, 2-4	4-4, 6-6	4-4, 5-7
Southern Miss	0-2, 0-6	3-5, 4-8	1-7, 1-11
FAU	1-4, 2-5	2-6, 3-9	3-5, 5-7
FIU	1-1, 1-5	0-8, 0-12	1-7, 1-11
Tulsa	1-1, 2-4	7-1, 9-4	5-3, 6-6	Hawaii Bowl
Rice	3-0, 5-2	6-2, 9-3	7-1, 9-4	New Orleans Bowl
Louisiana Tech	1-2, 2-5	5-3, 7-5	3-5, 5-7
North Texas	2-1, 4-3	4-4, 5-7	4-4, 6-6
Tulane	3-0, 5-2	3-5, 5-7	6-2, 8-4	Beef O'Brady's Bowl
UTEP	0-3, 1-5	2-6, 4-8	1-7, 2-10
UTSA	1-2, 2-5	2-6, 3-9	3-5, 4-8

 C-USA Synopsis:

• I still like East Carolina, despite the loss at Tulane.  The season finale against Marshall should be for the C-USA East.  Tulane and Rice also meet in the finale, likely deciding the C-USA West.  How is that for a 4-team playoff? 
• Rice and Tulane can become bowl-eligible this week.

MAC	CURRENT RECORD	PREDICTED RECORD	PROJECTED RECORD	BOWL PROJECTION
Ohio	2-1, 5-2	7-1, 10-3	6-2, 9-3	Beef O'Brady's Bowl
Bowling Green	3-0, 5-2	6-2, 8-4	7-1, 9-4	Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Buffalo	3-0, 5-2	4-4, 6-6	6-2, 8-4
Kent State	1-3, 2-6	3-5, 5-7	3-5, 4-8
Miami OH	0-3, 0-7	3-5, 3-9	0-8, 0-12
Akron	1-3, 2-6	2-6, 3-9	2-6, 3-9
Massachusetts	1-2, 1-6	1-7, 2-10	1-7, 1-11
Northern Illinois	3-0, 7-0	7-1, 12-1	8-0, 13-0	GoDaddy.com Bowl
Ball State	4-0, 7-1	6-2, 9-3	7-1, 10-2	Little Caesars Bowl
Toledo	2-1, 4-3	6-2, 8-4	5-3, 7-5
Western Michigan	0-4, 0-8	4-4, 5-7	1-7, 1-11
Central Michigan	2-2, 3-5	3-5, 4-8	5-3, 6-6
Eastern Michigan	0-3, 1-6	0-8, 1-11	1-7, 2-10

 MAC Synopsis:

• Time to move Northern Illinois to the unbeaten season.  Now the question is whether they can beat out Fresno State for a potential BCS spot.  Ball State might also have a say on November 13th.
• Buffalo is having a really good season, keeping in mind their two losses are against Ohio State and Baylor.  They are 71st in line for a bowl bid though, which leaves them home for the holidays.  Chances are one of the 6-6 teams gets upset, that is why they are 6-6 teams, but for now the Bulls are on the outside looking in.
• Northern Illinois and Ball State are bowl-eligible.  Ohio, Bowling Green and Buffalo can become bowl-eligible this week.

Sun Belt	CURRENT RECORD	PREDICTED RECORD	PROJECTED RECORD	BOWL PROJECTION
Louisiana-Monroe	1-1, 3-4	6-1, 9-3	2-5, 4-8
Louisiana-Lafayette	2-0, 4-2	5-2, 8-4	7-0, 10-2	New Orleans Bowl
Arkansas State	1-0, 3-3	5-2, 7-5	5-2, 7-5
Western Kentucky	1-2, 4-3	5-2, 8-4	4-3, 8-4	GoDaddy.com Bowl
Troy	2-1, 4-3	4-3, 5-7	4-3, 6-6
South Alabama	1-1, 3-3	2-5, 3-9	3-4, 5-7
Texas State	1-2, 4-3	1-6, 3-9	3-4, 7-5
Georgia State	0-0, 0-5	0-7, 1-11	0-7, 0-12

 Sun Belt Synopsis:

• Louisiana-Lafayette is starting to separate themselves as the favorite as the defense has stepped forward to support a solid offense.  It looks like they will have back-to-back road wins over two of the top contenders before the night is out.
• I am projecting five bowl-eligible teams, but not enough slots for everyone to fill.

Independents	CURRENT RECORD	PREDICTED RECORD	PROJECTED RECORD	BOWL PROJECTION
Notre Dame	5-2	9-3	9-3	Poinsettia Bowl
Navy	3-3	7-5	6-6	Armed Forces Bowl
BYU	5-2	6-6	8-4	Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Army	3-5	3-9	4-8
Idaho	1-6	1-11	2-10
New Mexico State	0-7	2-10	1-11