Friday, October 19, 2012

College Football 2012 - Jabesblog Week 8 Picks

Instead of picking every game straight up this year, I thought I would go more Vegas-style and select certain games each week to pick against the spread. Last weeks record: 6-5. Season record: 36-25-2. Lock of the Week: 4-2.

MAC 2-Pack Double Lock of the Week: Kent State -3.5 vs Western Michigan. The Golden Flash are serious MAC contenders while Western Michigan is surviving a quarterback injury and a partial rebuilding year. I am going to go with the home team and their all-purpose dynamo Dri Archer to take care of business...Kent State 34, Western Michigan 24. Win

Ball State -3 at Central Michigan. The Cardinals are playing well and it seems the Iowa game is an outlier for the Chippewas. Central Michigan is 4-22 ATS in their last 26 games, while Ball State is 10-3 ATS in their last 13. The numbers don't lie so we have to go with them...Ball State 41, Central Michigan 28  Win

The Ol' Ball Coach Pick of the Week Part II:  South Carolina +3.5 at Florida.  Last week, the Gamecocks did not win as predicted, but did give me the cover.  This week, they are giving me enough points to go their way again, even with a questionable Marcus Lattimore.  As usual, points will be at a premium...South Carolina 18, Florida 17.  Loss

Double 19 Giveaways of the Week:  Ohio State -19 vs Purdue.  The Buckeyes defense has struggled, but its my faith in their offense that makes 19 points easier to swallow.  The Boliermakers have no won in Columbus since the 80's and I don't see a Rubik's Cube revival on Saturday.  Purdue looked like it quit in the second half the last two weeks and may be demoralized for 4 quarters on the road this week.  Take Brutus in a rout...Ohio State 56, Purdue 14.  Loss

Mississippi State -19 vs Middle Tennessee. I have two theories at play here plus the number that says the Bulldogs are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games. My first theory is that with star RB Benny Cunningham out for the year, the Blue Raiders are going to struggle to score against a very good Mississippi State defense. My second theory is that Miss State feels like the disrespected one in the SEC and would like a convincing victory to enhance their profile. It all adds up...Mississippi State 40, Middle Tennessee 10Win

Fooled Me Once Pick of the Week:  Louisiana-Monroe +3.5 at Western Kentucky.  ULM was perfect for me this year until the dreaded garbage TD by FAU with less than 30 seconds left.  I am loyal, sometimes to a fault.  So once again I am going with ULM against a team that has covered 11 consecutive games.  The road team has covered in all 3 matchups between these two, and its not like ULM covering 8 of 10 is bad.  I know this is one to stay away from, but I just can't..Louisiana-Monroe 31, Western Kentucky 30.  Win

Other Games:
Iowa State +14 at Oklahoma State.  The Cowboys are still a mystery to me and the quarterback play has been erratic.  Iowa State played Texas Tech and Kansas State tough, so I don't see why they won't do the same in Stillwater...Oklahoma State 30, Iowa State 24.  Loss

NC State -3 at Maryland.  The Terps are 0-9 ATS in their last 9 home games.  They have overachieved as well and NC State still has ACC Championship visions if it can win out...NC State 24, Maryland 17.  Loss

Marshall +3.5 at Southern Miss.  The Golden Eagles are 0-6 and while they have been in some games, being a favorite seems like quite a stretch.  Tulane got me last week with a good performance, but I think Rakeem Cato can take care of a winless team...Marshall 38, Southern Miss 24.  Win

Penn State +2.5 at Iowa.  Kinnick is the House of Horrors for the Nittany Lions, but the Hawkeyes are likely without Mark Weisman, which is like being without your entire offense.  Until Weisman emerged, the Hawkeyes had averaged 17 points against defenses inferior to that of Penn State.  The Hawkeyes defense has played better lately too, but if your offense can't score...Penn State 17, Iowa 12.  Win

Wake Forest +3.5 at Virginia.  Two teams that are reeling, but the Demon Deacons a little less than the Cavaliers.  Plus Virginia is 0-8-1 ATS in their last 9 and the road team is 8-2-1 in the last 11 ATS in this match-up.  Vegas seems slow on the demise of UVA...Wake Forest 27, Virginia 17.  Win

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