Monday, October 29, 2012

College Football 2012 - Week 9 Bowl Bubble Watch

Washington (4-4) - at California (L), Utah (W), at Colorado (W), at Washington State (W), projected record 7-5 (the Huskies can breathe easier after upsetting Oregon State)

Arizona (5-3) - at UCLA (L), Colorado (W), at Utah (W), Arizona State (L), projected record 7-5 (like the Huskies, Arizona's upset of USC should send them bowling, especially with Colorado remaining)

Utah (3-5) - Washington State (W), at Washington (L), Arizona (L), at Colorado (W), projected record 5-7 (not out of the bowl picture yet, the home game with Arizona looks like the big one)

PAC-12 Reset:
1.  Oregon Ducks, 8-0 (BCS National Title Game)
2.  Oregon State Beavers, 6-1 (Rose Bowl)
3.  Stanford Cardinal, 6-2 (Las Vegas Bowl)
4.  USC Trojans, 6-2 (Alamo Bowl)
5.  UCLA Bruins, 6-2 (Holiday Bowl)
6.  Arizona Wildcats, 5-3 (Sun Bowl)
7.  Arizona State Sun Devils, 5-3 (Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl)
8.  Washington Huskies, 4-4 (New Mexico Bowl)
9.  Utah Utes, 3-5
10. California Golden Bears, 3-6
11. Washington State Cougars, 2-6
12. Colorado Buffaloes, 1-7

Big 10
Note:  Many Bowl Projections are leaving 8 Big Ten Teams in this week.  I am going with 7, as you see right now I am moving the Golden Gophers out this week.

Iowa (4-4) - at Indiana (W), Purdue (W), at Michigan (L), Nebraska (L), projected record 6-6 (the next two weeks look huge for the Hawkeyes)

Purdue (3-5) - Penn State (L), at Iowa (L), at Illinois (W), Indiana (W) - projected record 5-7 (it is now or never for the disappointing Boilermakers)

Minnesota (5-3) - Michigan (L), at Illinois (W), at Nebraska (L), Michigan State (L), projected record 6-6 (not a great road team, the Gophers will have to win at Illinois or get to 20 and beat Michigan State at home)

Big 10 Reset:
1.  Ohio State Buckeyes, 9-0
2.  Nebraska Cornhuskers, 6-2 (Rose Bowl)
3.  Penn State Nittany Lions, 5-3
4.  Michigan Wolverines, 5-3 (Capital One Bowl)
5.  Northwestern Wildcats, 7-2 (Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl)
6.  Wisconsin Badgers, 6-3 (Outback Bowl)
7.  Michigan State Spartans, 5-4 (Gator Bowl)
8.  Iowa Hawkeyes, 4-4 (Heart of Dallas Bowl)
9.  Minnesota Golden Gophers, 5-3 (Texas Bowl)
10. Purdue Boilermakers, 3-5
11. Indiana Hoosiers, 3-5
12. Illinois Fighting Illini, 2-6
(currently not filling Little Caesars bowl slot)

Tennessee (3-5) - Troy (W), Missouri (W), at Vanderbilt (W), Kentucky (W), projected record 7-5 (With Troy and Kentucky at home, it really comes down to splitting the Missouri/Vandy games.)

Vanderbilt (4-4) - at Kentucky (W), at Ole Miss (L), Tennessee (L), at Wake Forest (W) - projected record 6-6 (with three games left on the road, it won't be easy for the Commodores)

Missouri (4-4) - at Florida (L), at Tennessee (L), Syracuse (W), at Texas A&M (L), projected record 5-7 (have to figure out a way to beat Tennessee or A&M on the road)

Arkansas (3-5) - Tulsa (W), at South Carolina (L), at Mississippi State (L), LSU (L), projected record 4-8 (will likely be a fitting end to a disappointing season for the Razorbacks)

Ole Miss (5-3) - at Georgia (L), Vanderbilt (W), at LSU (L), Mississippi State (L), projected record 6-6 (the win over Arkansas makes bowling a realistic possibility)

SEC Reset:
1.  Alabama Crimson Tide, 8-0 (BCS National Title Game)
2.  LSU Tigers, 7-1 (Capital One Bowl)
3.  Georgia Bulldogs, 7-1 (Outback Bowl)
4.  Florida Gators, 7-1 (Sugar Bowl)
5.  Mississippi State Bulldogs, 7-1 (Cotton Bowl)
6.  South Carolina Gamecocks, 7-2 (Gator Bowl)
7.  Texas A&M Aggies, 6-2 (Chick Fil-A Bowl)
8.  Ole Miss Rebels, 5-3 (Music City Bowl)
9.  Tennessee Volunteers, 3-5 (Liberty Bowl)
10. Vanderbilt Commodores, 4-4 (Independence Bowl)
11. Missouri Tigers, 4-4
12. Arkansas Razorbacks, 3-5
13. Auburn Tigers, 1-7
14. Kentucky Wildcats, 1-8
(currently not filling BBVA Compass bowl slot)

Big 12
Note:  Projecting 7 teams in from the Big 12, but the likelihood of an 8th is still there.  TCU is a good team with a brutal finishing schedule.

Oklahoma State (5-2) - at Kansas State (L), West Virginia (L), Texas Tech (W), at Oklahoma (L), at Baylor (W), projected record 7-5 (The Cowboys might be contenders for the Big 12 title)

TCU (5-3) - at West Virginia (L), Kansas State (L), at Texas (L), Oklahoma (L), projected record 5-7 (only need one more win, but who are they going to beat?)

Iowa State (5-3) - Oklahoma (L), at Texas (L), at Kansas (W), West Virginia (L), projected record 6-6 (with Kansas on the remaining schedule, a bowl bid is almost locked in)

Baylor (3-4) - Kansas (W), at Oklahoma (L), Kansas State (L), Texas Tech (L), Oklahoma State (L) - projected record 4-8 (the defense is just so bad)

Big 12 Reset:
1.  Kansas State Wildcats, 8-0 (Fiesta Bowl)
2.  Oklahoma Sooners, 5-2 (Cotton Bowl)
3.  Texas Tech Red Raiders, 6-2 (Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl)
4.  West Virginia Mountaineers, 5-2 (Alamo Bowl)
5.  Texas Longhorns, 6-2 (Texas Bowl)
6.  Oklahoma State Cowboys, 5-2 (Holiday Bowl)
7.  Iowa State Cyclones, 5-3 (Pinstripe Bowl)
8.  TCU Horned Frogs, 5-3
9.  Baylor Bears, 3-4
10. Kansas Jayhawks, 1-7

Virginia Tech (4-4) - at Miami FL (L), Florida State (L), at Boston College (W), Virginia (W), projected record 6-6 (could easily win at Miami, FL this week and earn some breathing room)

Maryland (4-4) - Georgia Tech (W), at Clemson (L), Florida State (L), at North Carolina (L), projected record 5-7 (losing their starting quarterback has made bowling a difficult task)

Georgia Tech (3-5) - at Maryland (L), at North Carolina (L), Duke (W), at Georgia (L), projected record 4-8 (they just don't look that good on a weekly basis)

Wake Forest (4-4) - Boston College (W), at NC State (L), at Notre Dame (L), Vanderbilt (L), projected record 5-7 (BC is one, where is the other?)

ACC Reset
1.  Florida State Seminoles, 8-1 (Orange Bowl)
2.  Clemson Tigers, 7-1 (Chick Fil-A Bowl)
3.  North Carolina Tar Heels, 6-3
4.  NC State Wolfpack, 5-3 (Russell Athletic Bowl)
5.  Miami Hurricanes, 4-4 (Belk Bowl)
6.  Virginia Tech Hokies, 4-4 (Sun Bowl)
7.  Duke Blue Devils, 6-3 (Music City Bowl)
8.  Maryland Terrapins, 4-4
9.  Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, 3-5
10. Wake Forest Demon Deacons, 4-4
11. Boston College Eagles, 2-6
12. Virginia Cavaliers, 2-6
(currently not filling Independence or Military Bowl slot)

Big East
Pittsburgh (4-4) - at Notre Dame (L), at Connecticut (W), Rutgers (L), at South Florida (W), projected record 6-6 (I am giving Pitt the benefit of the doubt, but they have no margin for error)

Temple (3-4) - at Louisville (L), Cincinnati (L), at Army (W), Syracuse (W), projected record 5-6 (This weeks game at Pittsburgh may likely determine the 4th bowl slot from the Big East.)

Syracuse (4-4) - at Cincinnati (L), Louisville (L), at Missouri (L), at Temple (L)  projected record 4-8 (with 4 wins and 2 in a row, the Orange are included here)

Big East Reset:
1.  Louisville Cardinals, 8-0 (Orange Bowl)
2.  Rutgers Scarlett Knights, 7-1 (Russell Athletic Bowl)
3.  Cincinnati Bearcats, 5-2 (Belk Bowl)
4.  Pittsburgh Panthers, 4-4 (Pinstripe Bowl)
5.  Syracuse Orange, 4-4
6.  Temple Owls, 3-4
7.  South Florida Bulls, 2-6
8.  Connecticut Huskies, 3-5
(currently not filling BBVA Compass Bowl or Beef O'Brady's Bowl slots)

Other Conferences/Independents
Houston (4-4) - at East Carolina (W), Tulsa (L), at Marshall (L), Tulane (W). projected record 6-6

Marshall (3-5) - Memphis(W), at UAB (W), Houston (W), at East Carolina (L), projected record 6-6

SMU (4-4) - at UCF (L), Southern Miss (W), at Rice (W), Tulsa (L), projected record 6-6

Western Michigan (3-6) - at Central Michigan (W), at Buffalo (W), Eastern Michigan (W), projected record 6-6

Miami(OH) (4-4) - at Buffalo (W), Kent State (L), at Central Michigan (L), Ball State (W), projected record 6-6

Central Michigan (3-5) - Western Michigan (L), at Eastern Michigan (W), Miami(OH) (W), at UMass (W), projected record 6-6

Air Force (5-3) - at Army (W), at San Diego State (L), Hawaii (W), at Fresno State (L), projected record 7-5

New Mexico (4-5) - at UNLV (L), Wyoming (W), Nevada (L), at Colorado State (W), projected record 6-7

Other Conferences/Independents Reset:
1.  Notre Dame Fighting Irish, 8-0 (Fiesta Bowl)
2.  Boise State Broncos, 7-1 (Sugar Bowl)
3.  Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, 7-1 (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl)
4.  Northern Illinois Huskies, 8-1 (Little Caesars Bowl)
5.  Tulsa Golden Hurricane, 7-1 (Hawaii Bowl)
6.  Kent State Golden Flash, 7-1 (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl)
7.  Ohio Bobcats, 8-1 ( Bowl)
8.  Toledo Rockets, 8-1 (Beef O'Brady's Bowl**)
9.  UCF Golden Knights, 6-2 (Liberty Bowl)
10. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks, 6-2 (New Orleans Bowl)
11. Utah State Aggies, 7-2 (Independence Bowl**)
12. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, 6-2 ( Bowl)
13. Fresno State Bulldogs, 6-3 (Las Vegas Bowl)
14. San Diego State Aztecs, 6-3 (Hawaii Bowl)
15. Nevada Wolfpack, 6-3 (Poinsettia Bowl)
16. Air Force Falcons, 5-3 (Armed Forces Bowl)
17. BYU Cougars, 5-4 (Poinsettia Bowl)

18. Ball State Cardinals, 6-3 (Military Bowl**)
19. Bowling Green Falcons, 6-3 (BBVA Compass Bowl**)
20. San Jose State Spartans, 6-2 (New Mexico Bowl**)

21. Arkansas State Redwolves, 5-3 (Little Caesars Bowl**)
22. Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders, 5-3 (Military Bowl**)
23. Navy Midshipmen, 5-3 (Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl)
24. East Carolina Pirates, 5-4 (New Orleans Bowl)
25. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns, 4-3 (BBVA Compass Bowl**)

Other Projected Bowl Eligible Teams:
Marshall Thundering Herd, 3-5 (Beef O'Brady's Bowl)
Houston Cougars, 4-4 (Armed Forces Bowl)
SMU Mustangs, 4-4 (Heart of Dallas Bowl)

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