As I was reading my SportingNews NFL preview issue, which attempted to pick all 256 NFL games for the year, I noticed that the SportingNews writers seemed to be picking the home team at an unusually high rate. Out of curiousity, I added it all up and came up with the SportingNews having the home team win 76% of the time. A little more research of the previous four NFL seasons found this - the home team won an average of 56% of the time from 2005-2008, with a high of 59%.
I was enjoying my SportingNews subscription, but I am not sure if they were being conservative or lazy. I have the same feeling when the so-called experts pick their brackets for March Madness and think a 5 or 6 seed in the Sweet 16 is a cinderella pick. Would someone please go out on a limb? Take a chance. Call a trick play. Be innovative. Try an onside kick in the first quarter. If you lose your job, I guarantee there were other factors.
I will not pick all 256 NFL games now, but since I feel as qualified as the SportingNews, here are my 2009 NFL predictions.
AFC East
1. New England Patriots
2. New York Jets
3. Miami Dolphins
4. Buffalo Bills
AFC North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Baltimore Ravens (wildcard)
3. Cincinnati Bengals
4. Cleveland Browns
AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts
2. Houston Texans (wildcard)
3. Tennessee Titans
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
AFC West
1. San Diego Chargers
2. Oakland Raiders
3. Denver Broncos
4. Kansas City Chiefs
AFC Championship
New England over San Diego
NFC East
1. Philadelphia Eagles
2. Dallas Cowboys
3. New York Giants
4. Washington Redskins
NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers
2. Chicago Bears (wildcard)
3. Minnesota Vikings (wildcard)
4. Detroit Lions
NFC South
1. Carolina Panthers
2. New Orleans Saints
3. Atlanta Falcons
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFC West
1. San Francisco 49ers
2. Arizona Cardinals
3. Seattle Seahawks
4. St. Louis Rams
NFC Championship
Philadelphia over Green Bay
Super Bowl
New England over Philadelphia
So in the end, my Super Bowl is pretty conservative. Maybe I can work for the SportingNews.
After 1 week of NFL play, this Jablog fan is curious how the author feels about his picks. Any early leans another direction? Some early injuries may already be in play in the NFC and some sources say the titans won't be kept out of the party this season despite the openers results. Thanks for the checks and balances on the national media...next bogey=Berman? Keep it up!
ReplyDeleteGood to see I have my first fan!! It is a wonder how Week 1 of an NFL season can change one's outlook. I will stick by my predictions and hope for a minor miracle in some cases. Stock up - Dallas, New Orleans, and Atlanta. Stock down - Carolina, Chicago, and Houston.
ReplyDelete