College Football 2013 - Week 14 Jabesblog Picks

Season Record: 289-240-7 (ATS)  412-124 (Straight-Up)
Last Week: 28-23-1 (ATS)  39-13 (Straight-Up)

Season Record when taking points:  122-113-3
Season Record when giving points:  163-125-4
Season Record in pick 'em games:  4-2-0

Broken record again last week, going 16-3-1 as of the early Saturday games and limping home 12-20 the rest of the way.

WEEK 14 PICKS

MAC (Season Record 35-26-2 coming onto this week in games involving a MAC team)

Northern Illinois (-35) 52, Western Michigan 14 (L)
Toledo (-7.5) 34, Akron 21  (L)
Ball State (-34.5) 52, Miami, OH 10  (W)
Central Michigan (-18.5) 38, Eastern Michigan 14  (W)
Ohio 31, Massachusetts (+16.5) 17  (L)
Buffalo (+1.5) 27, Bowling Green 23  (L)

My record ATS for each MAC team through Week 12:  Western Michigan 7-2, Northern Illinois 7-2, Massachusetts 7-2, Ball State 6-2-1, Miami, OH 6-2-1, Kent State 6-4, Buffalo 5-3, Bowling Green 5-3, Akron 4-5, Ohio 4-3-1, Central Michigan 4-4-1, Eastern Michigan 4-5, Toledo 3-5

AAC (Season Record 32-19)
UCF (-27) 38, South Florida 6  (L)
Houston (-9.5) 27, SMU 13  (W)
Memphis 28, Temple (+8.5) 24  (W)
Connecticut (+3) 24, Rutgers 17  (W)

My record ATS for each AAC team through Week 12:  UCF 7-1, Houston 7-2, Memphis 6-1, Rutgers 5-3, South Florida 6-2, Louisville 6-3, Connecticut 5-4, Temple 4-4, SMU 4-4, Cincinnati 4-4

Conference USA (Season Record 43-34)
Marshall (-3) 42, East Carolina 34  (W)
Florida Atlantic (-27.5) 45, Florida International 10  (L)
UAB (-14) 44, Southern Miss 21  (L)
Rice 27, Tulane (+11) 20  (W)
UTSA (-16.5) 34, Louisiana Tech 13  (W)
North Texas (-5) 26, Tulsa 17  (W)
Middle Tennessee (-22.5) 42, UTEP 10  (W)

My record ATS for each C-USA team through Week 12:  Louisiana Tech 8-1, Marshall 7-2, Southern Miss 6-3, UTSA 6-3, Rice 7-3, Tulsa 6-3, Tulane 6-3, Florida Atlantic 6-3, East Carolina 5-4, North Texas 4-5, UTEP 5-5, Florida International 3-5, Middle Tennessee 1-7, UAB 2-6

Mountain West (Season Record 32-33-1)
Fresno State (-7) 48, San Jose State 34  (L)
Utah State 34, Wyoming (+20.5) 24  (L)
BYU 27, Nevada (+14.5) 20  (W)
Boise State 52, New Mexico (+36.5) 21  (W)
Colorado State 35, Air Force (+14.5) 28  (L)
San Diego State (-3.5) 34, UNLV 20  (L)
Army (+7) 49, Hawaii 45  (T)

My record ATS for each MWC team through Week 12:  New Mexico 6-1-1, Air Force 6-3, Utah State 4-3, UNLV 5-3, San Jose State 5-4, Colorado State 4-5, Hawaii 3-5, Nevada 3-5, San Diego State 3-6, Boise State 3-6, Fresno State 3-4, Wyoming 2-6

Big Ten (Season Record 25-31)
Iowa (+3) 24, Nebraska 23  (W)
Ohio State (+14.5) 40, Michigan 20  (L)
Illinois (+3.5) 27, Northwestern 24  (W)
Indiana 35, Purdue (+21) 24  (W)
Michigan State 24, Minnesota (+14.5) 13  (W)
Wisconsin (-24) 42, Penn State 7  (L)

My record ATS for each Big 10 team through Week 12:  Illinois 5-3, Purdue 5-4, Michigan State 5-3, Iowa 5-3, Ohio State 4-4, Nebraska 3-5, Northwestern 4-4, Indiana 3-5, Wisconsin 2-2, Minnesota 2-5, Penn State 2-7, Michigan 1-8

ACC (Season Record 43-26-3)
Pittsburgh (+2.5) 31, Miami, FL 27  (L)
Boston College (-2) 24, Syracuse 17  (L)
North Carolina State (+2.5) 27, Maryland 23  (L)
Vanderbilt (-14) 31, Wake Forest 10  (L)
North Carolina (-6) 45, Duke 35  (L)
Georgia Tech (+3.5) 34, Georgia 31  (L)
Virginia Tech 27, Virginia (+12.5) 19  (W)
Clemson (+5) 37, South Carolina 31  (L)
Florida State (-27.5) 45, Florida 7  (W)

My record ATS for each ACC team through Week 12:  Florida State 7-2, Maryland 6-3, Duke 7-2, Virginia Tech 6-3, Virginia 6-1-1, Miami, FL 6-2, Clemson 5-3, NC State 6-3, Wake Forest 6-3, Georgia Tech 5-3-1, Syracuse 4-3-1, Boston College 4-5, Pittsburgh 2-5-2, North Carolina 2-6

SEC (Season Record 40-29-2)
Ole Miss (-3) 26, Mississippi State 21  (L)
LSU 38, Arkansas (+24.5) 21  (W)
Tennessee (-3.5) 20, Kentucky 13  (W)
Missouri (-4.5) 48, Texas A&M 41  (W)
Alabama (-10.5) 45, Auburn 21  (L)

My record ATS for each SEC team through Week 12:  Missouri 8-1, Kentucky 6-2, Alabama 6-3, Florida 5-2-1, Auburn 5-3, Vanderbilt 6-3, Tennessee 6-3, Arkansas 5-4, LSU 4-3-1, Georgia 3-3-2, Ole Miss 4-5, Mississippi State 4-5, South Carolina 2-6, Texas A&M 3-6

Sun Belt (Season Record 20-24)
Troy (-7) 38, Texas State 24  (W)
South Alabama (-8.5) 33, Georgia State 21  (W)
Western Kentucky (-6.5) 35, Arkansas State 23  (L)
Louisiana-Lafayette (-15) 38, Louisiana-Monroe 17  (L)

My record ATS for each Sun Belt team through Week 12:  Georgia State 5-3, ULM 5-4, Texas State 5-4, Arkansas State 4-5, Troy 4-5, Western Kentucky 3-5, South Alabama 2-6, ULL 2-5

Independents (Season Record 22-25)
New Mexico State (-3.5) 45, Idaho 31  (W)

My record ATS for each Independent team through Week 12:  New Mexico State 6-2, Army 5-3, BYU 3-4, Idaho 4-4, Navy 3-6, Notre Dame 2-7

PAC-12 (Season Record 30-34)
Washington (-14) 51, Washington State 27  (L)
Oregon (-21.5) 50, Oregon State 21  (L)
Utah 34, Colorado (+16.5) 30  (W)
USC (-3.5) 31, UCLA 24  (L)
Stanford 27, Notre Dame (+14.5) 19  (W)
Arizona State 33, Arizona (+11.5) 27  (L)

My record ATS for each PAC-12 team through Week 12:  Oregon 6-3, Washington State 6-2, Arizona State 5-5, Oregon State 5-4, Washington 5-4, UCLA 4-6, Stanford 4-6, California 4-6, Colorado 3-5, Arizona 3-6, Utah 4-5, USC 3-7

Big 12 (Season Record 31-20)
Texas (-4.5) 42, Texas Tech 34  (W)
Baylor 34, TCU (+12) 28  (W)
Kansas State 31, Kansas (+16) 22  (L)
West Virginia (-7.5) 37, Iowa State 21  (L)

My record ATS for each Big 12 team through Week 12:  Kansas 8-2, Texas Tech 8-1, Texas 6-2, West Virginia 6-3, Baylor 5-3, TCU 5-4, Iowa State 5-5, Oklahoma State 3-5, Oklahoma 3-6, Kansas State 3-6

Record This Week:  28-30-1 ATS, 39-20 SU
Record This Season:  317-270-8 ATS (54%), 451-144 SU (75.8%)

College Football 2013 - Week 13 Jabesblog Picks

Season Record: 261-217-6 (ATS) 373-111 (Straight-Up)
Last Week: 28-21 (ATS)  40-9 (Straight-Up)

Season Record when taking points:  112-104-2
Season Record when giving points:  145-112-4
Season Record in pick 'em games:  4-1-0

Once again I was 27-16 last week before going 1-5 in the last 6 games that finished.  Off to a 2-0 start last night with the MAC and hope to feed on some positive momentum.

WEEK 13 PICKS

MAC (Season Record 30-26-2 coming onto this week in games involving a MAC team)

Buffalo (-24) 38, Miami, OH 10  (W)

Kent State (+6) 24, Ohio 23 (W)
Northern Illinois (-2) 41, Toledo 34  (W)
Central Michigan (-10) 31, Massachusetts 10  (W)
Bowling Green (-24) 45, Eastern Michigan 14  (W)

My record ATS for each MAC team through Week 12:  Western Michigan 7-2, Northern Illinois 6-2, Massachusetts 6-2, Ball State 6-2-1, Miami, OH 5-2-1, Kent State 5-4, Buffalo 4-3, Bowling Green 4-3, Akron 4-5, Ohio 3-3-1, Central Michigan 3-4-1, Eastern Michigan 3-5, Toledo 2-5

AAC (Season Record 29-17)
UCF 34, Rutgers (+17.5) 20 (L)
Temple (-7.5) 34, Connecticut 19  (L)
Cincinnati (+2.5) 29, Houston 27  (W)
Louisville 30, Memphis (+24) 10  (W)
SMU (-4) 35, South Florida 24  (W)

My record ATS for each AAC team through Week 12:  UCF 7-0, Houston 6-2, Memphis 5-1, Rutgers 5-2, South Florida 5-2, Louisville 5-3, Connecticut 5-3, Temple 4-3, SMU 3-4, Cincinnati 3-4

Conference USA (Season Record 37-32)
Rice 34, UAB (+18) 21   (W)
Marshall (-32.5) 52, Florida International 14  (W)
Tulane (-16) 34, UTEP 13  (W)
North Texas (-7.5) 31, UTSA 14  (L)
Middle Tennessee (-22.5) 41, Southern Miss 14  (L)
Florida Atlantic (-22) 48, New Mexico State 21  (W)
Tulsa (-3) 27, Louisiana Tech 17  (W)

My record ATS for each C-USA team through Week 12:  Louisiana Tech 7-1, Marshall 6-2, Southern Miss 6-2, UTSA 6-2, Rice 6-3, Tulsa 5-3, Tulane 5-3, Florida Atlantic 5-3, East Carolina 4-4, North Texas 4-4, UTEP 4-5, Florida International 2-5, Middle Tennessee 1-6, UAB 1-6

Mountain West (Season Record 29-30-1)
UNLV (+2) 35, Air Force 31   (W)
Navy (+2) 35, San Jose State 28  (W)
Wyoming (-6) 38, Hawaii 21  (L)
Utah State 30, Colorado State (+10) 28  (L)
Fresno State (-31.5) 52, New Mexico 14  (W)
Boise State (-5.5) 38, San Diego State 27  (L)

My record ATS for each MWC team through Week 12:  New Mexico 5-1-1, Air Force 5-3, Utah State 4-2, UNLV 4-3, San Jose State 4-4, Colorado State 4-4, Hawaii 3-4, Nevada 3-5, San Diego State 3-5, Boise State 3-5, Fresno State 2-4, Wyoming 2-5

Big Ten (Season Record 23-28)
Penn State (-1.5) 23, Nebraska 20  (L)
Illinois (-6.5) 38, Purdue 21  (L)
Ohio State (-34.5) 59, Indiana 17  (L)
Michigan State (-7) 27, Northwestern 10  (W)
Iowa 23, Michigan (+5.5) 20  (W)

My record ATS for each Big 10 team through Week 12:  Illinois 5-2, Purdue 5-3, Michigan State 4-3, Iowa 4-3, Ohio State 4-3, Nebraska 3-4, Northwestern 3-4, Indiana 3-4, Wisconsin 2-2, Minnesota 2-5, Penn State 2-6, Michigan 0-8!!

ACC (Season Record 39-25-2)
Syracuse (+1) 28, Pittsburgh 24  (T)
East Carolina (-5.5) 38, North Carolina State 24  (W)
Florida State (-57) 70, Idaho 3  (W)
Duke (-6) 26, Wake Forest 14  (W)
Maryland (+1) 35, Boston College 30  (L)
Miami, FL 34, Virginia (+20.5) 17  (W)

My record ATS for each ACC team through Week 12:  Florida State 6-2, Maryland 6-2, Duke 6-2, Virginia Tech 6-3, Virginia 5-1-1, Miami, FL 5-2, Clemson 5-3, NC State 5-3, Wake Forest 5-3, Georgia Tech 5-3-1, Syracuse 4-3, Boston College 4-4, Pittsburgh 2-5-1, North Carolina 2-6

SEC (Season Record 36-28-2)
Georgia 34, Kentucky (+25) 23  (L)
Vanderbilt (+3) 26, Tennessee 24  (W)
LSU (-5.5) 44, Texas A&M 38  (W)
Mississippi State (-1.5) 30, Arkansas 20  (W)
Missouri (-2) 41, Ole Miss 37  (W)

My record ATS for each SEC team through Week 12:  Missouri 7-1, Kentucky 6-1, Alabama 6-3, Florida 5-2-1, Auburn 5-3, Vanderbilt 5-3, Tennessee 5-3, Arkansas 4-4, LSU 3-3-1, Georgia 3-2-2, Ole Miss 3-5, Mississippi State 3-5, South Carolina 2-6, Texas A&M 2-6

Sun Belt (Season Record 20-21)
Louisiana-Monroe (+3.5) 24, South Alabama 22  (L)
Arkansas State (-24) 47, Georgia State 14  (L)
Western Kentucky 28, Texas State (+5.5) 27  (L)

My record ATS for each Sun Belt team through Week 12:  Georgia State 5-2, ULM 5-3, Texas State 5-3, Arkansas State 4-4, Troy 4-5, Western Kentucky 3-4, South Alabama 2-5, ULL 2-5

Independents (Season Record 19-24)
BYU (pick'em) 31, Notre Dame 24  (L)

My record ATS for each Independent team through Week 12:  New Mexico State 5-2, Army 5-3, BYU 3-3, Idaho 3-4, Navy 2-6, Notre Dame 2-6

PAC-12 (Season Record 28-30)
Washington State (-1.5) 30, Utah 27  (W)
Stanford 41, California (+31.5) 17  (L)
Oregon (-20.5) 45, Arizona 21  (L)
USC (-22.5) 41, Colorado 10  (L)
UCLA (+2.5) 38, Arizona State 34  (L)
Washington (+2) 27, Oregon State 24  (W)

My record ATS for each PAC-12 team through Week 12:  Oregon 6-2, Washington State 5-2, Arizona State 5-4, Oregon State 4-4, Washington 4-4, UCLA 4-5, Stanford 4-5, California 4-5, Colorado 3-4, Arizona 3-5, Utah 3-5, USC 3-6

Big 12 (Season Record 31-17)
Kansas (+4.5) 28, Iowa State 20  (L)
Kansas State (-5.5) 34, Oklahoma 27  (L)
Baylor (-9.5) 52, Oklahoma State 35  (L)

My record ATS for each Big 12 team through Week 12:  Kansas 8-1, Texas Tech 8-1, Texas 6-2, West Virginia 6-3, Baylor 5-2, TCU 5-4, Iowa State 5-4, Oklahoma State 3-4, Oklahoma 3-5, Kansas State 3-5

Record This Week:  28-23-1 ATS (39-13 SU)
Record This Season:  289-240-7 ATS (412-125 SU)

NCAA Men's Basketball - Field of 68 - The Bracket - November 15, 2013

THE BRACKET

Just to get a feel for what things might look like. 

	EAST (New York)	MIDWEST (Indy)	SOUTH (Memphis)	WEST (Anaheim)
(1)	Louisville	Michigan State	Kentucky	Kansas
(16)	LIU-Brooklyn	Weber State/High Point	Texas So./Boston U.	Norfolk State
	St. Louis, MO	Milwaukee, WI	Raleigh, NC	St. Louis, MO
(8)	Iowa	Georgetown	Cincinnati	Tennessee
(9)	Iowa State	Colorado	Indiana	Boise State
(5)	Creighton	Baylor	Notre Dame	Connecticut
(12)	LSU/San Diego State	Southern Miss	Providence/BYU	North Dakota State
	San Antonio, TX	San Diego, CA	Milwaukee, WI	Spokane, WA
(4)	VCU	New Mexico	Wisconsin	Michigan
(13)	Toledo	Western Kentucky	Eastern Kentucky	New Mexico State
(6)	UCLA	St. Louis	Wichita State	North Carolina
(11)	St. John’s	UNLV	Missouri	California
	Buffalo, NY	Orlando, FL	Spokane, WA	Orlando, FL
(3)	Ohio State	Florida	Marquette	Memphis
(14)	Towson	Iona	Northwestern State	UWGB
(7)	Gonzaga	Villanova	Oregon	Virginia
(10)	Harvard	Arizona State	Georgia Tech	Massachusetts
	Raleigh, NC	Buffalo, NY	San Antonio, TX	San Diego, CA
(2)	Duke	Syracuse	Oklahoma State	Arizona
(15)	Vermont	Florida Gulf Coast	UCSB	Davidson

College Football 2012 - Week 12 Jabesblog Picks

Season Record: 233-196-6 (ATS)  333-102 (Straight-Up)
Last Week: 26-22-1 (ATS) 38-11 (Straight-Up)

I was rolling along last week until Saturday Night, missing on the last 7 games of the night to ruin a really good week.  Time to pay more attention to those games. 

WEEK 12 PICKS

MAC
Bowling Green (-9.5) 31, Ohio 17  (W)
Buffalo (+3.5) 35, Toledo 34  (L)
Northern Illinois (-6.5) 41, Ball State 31  (W)
Kent State (-17.5) 38, Miami, OH 13  (W)
Central Michigan (-2) 34, Western Michigan 27  (W)
Akron (-6.5) 27, Massachusetts 17  (L)

Interesting week in the MAC, where the match-ups are better than usual.  The favorite is 26-9 in MAC conference games, a 74% clip.  I am picking Buffalo as my one underdog.  The Bulls look like the best team in the MAC East and Toledo is horrible on both Tuesdays and off bye weeks.  No slam dunks here this week in the MAC though.

ACC
Clemson 34, Georgia Tech (+11) 31  (L)
Duke (+3.5) 31, Miami, FL 27  (W)
Virginia Tech 27, Maryland (+16) 14  (W)
Boston College (-7.5) 34, NC State 20  (W)
Pittburgh (-1) 31, North Carolina 26  (L)
Florida State (-37.5) 52, Syracuse 10  (W)

If it wasn't Thursday Night, I might have gone with Clemson, but Georgia Tech often gives them fits as it is.  Virginia Tech exploded offensively last week, but can they prove it two weeks in a row?  I will continue to go with Florida State until they prove otherwise, but the potential Jameis Winston distraction would be a reason to go with the 'Cuse.

C-USA
Marshall 38, Tulsa (+12.5) 31  (W)
Florida Atlantic (-17) 35, Southern Miss 13  (W)
East Carolina 41, UAB (+28) 20  (L)
Rice (-15.5) 34, Lousiana Tech 14  (W)
UTEP 14, FIU (+5.5) 13  (L)

Big numbers for Rice and FAU to cover, but I like both this week.  Conversely, the C-USA top teams in Marshall and Eat Carolina may have a tough time covering their number.  Marshall is not a good road team and has to prove it to me.  Finally, when two really really bad teams play, I have to take the points.

PAC-12
UCLA (-2.5) 35, Washington 23  (W)
California (+2) 30, Colorado 24  (L)
Arizona State (-14) 44, Oregon State 20  (L)
Oregon 43, Utah (+26) 21  (W)
Stanford (-3.5) 24, USC 17  (L)
Arizona 33, Washington State (+11) 27  (W)

Arizona State owes me and is really good at home.  Washington has struggled on the road and thus that seems like a small number for UCLA.  How can you go wrong with Stanford at this point?  Marcus Mariota's injury takes a little explosiveness out of the Ducks.

SEC
Vanderbilt (-11.5) 37, Kentucky 17  (W)
South Carolina (-12.5) 31, Florida 9  (L)
Auburn (-3) 38, Georgia 28  (W)
Alabama (-23) 49, Mississippi State 17  (L)

All favorites in the SEC this week.  Vandy has recovered nicely this year and should handle Kentucky.  Florida's offense is in further shambles.  Auburn and Alabama are cruising toward their meeting.

AAC
Louisville 38, Houston (+16) 33  (W)
Cincinnati (pick 'em) 27, Rutgers 21  (W)
UCF 34, Temple (+17) 24  (W)
SMU (-15.5) 45, Connecticut 21  (W)
Memphis (-1.5) 24, South Florida 20  (W)

Houston seems to get no respect.  I will respect them.  I buy Cincinnati more than I do Rutgers.  Temple has been much better lately and could be overlooked by UCF.  Connecticut is just not good, especially on the road.

Big 10
Penn State 27, Purdue (+21.5) 10  (L)
Northwestern (-3) 29, Michigan 21  (L)
Michigan State (-6) 23, Nebraska 10  (W)
Ohio State 44, Illinois (+33.5) 19  (W)

I am banking on the State of Michigan trends...Michigan State up, Michigan down.  I am also crazy for wanting points with both Purdue and Illinois.

Sun Belt
Louisiana-Lafayette 34, Georgia State (+21.5) 19  (W)
Navy 35, South Alabama (+7) 31  (L)
Arkansas State (-7) 33, Texas State 17  (W)
Ole Miss 48, Troy (+28) 28  (L)

I was 0-fer on the Sun Belt last week, so be warned.  Georgia State has an uncanny way of just covering the point spread.  I also feel like Arkansas State has re-established themselves as one of the best in the Belt after a slow start.

Mountain West
Boise State 41, Wyoming (+23) 26  (L)
San Jose State (-7) 35, Nevada 24  (L)
Colorado State 38, New Mexico (+6.5) 35  (L)
San Diego State (-4) 41, Hawaii 34  (W)

In the high-flying Mountain West, it seems anything can happen.  With 3 lines right around a TD, these games could go either way.  I like all the favorites to win, but was least confident with CSU on the road this week.  I also still don't love Boise State's defense enough to cover the higher number.

Big 12
West Virginia (-6.5) 31, Kansas 16  (L)
Baylor (-28) 66, Texas Tech 31  (W)
Oklahoma State (-3) 37, Texas 27  (W)
Oklahoma 31, Iowas State (+23.5) 13  (L)
Kansas State (-10) 30, TCU 10  (L)

Some feel West Virginia will lay an egg, but with bowl-eligibility on the line, I think they take care of Kansas.  Oklahoma's quarterback issues make their line a little high for me.  Kansas State is rolling along and TCU is not.  Finally, I don't love Oklahoma State on the road in this spot, but sometimes you have to pick a game the way you want it to go.

Record this week:  28-21 ATS (40-9 SU)
Record this season:  261-217-6 ATS (373-111 SU)

College Basketball 2013-14 - Field of 68 - Pre-Season (adjusted for Week 1)

NCAA Pre-Season-ish Field of 68

The 1's - Michigan State, Kansas, Kentucky and Louisville
I had Michigan State as the #1 overall seed going in, just didn't publish fast enough before they dispatched Kentucky.  They have the best combination of talent and experience in College Basketball, and their coach is pretty good too.  I had Duke here in my pre-season scribblings, but Kansas gets the nod now that games are underway.  Kentucky showed well against Sparty, so they get to stay despite a loss.  Louisville is the defending champ and should cruise through a watered-down AAC.
The 2's - Duke, Oklahoma State, Arizona and Syracuse
I can easily see Duke moving back to a #1, but for now they can wait for a team above to slip back.  I would not be surprised if Oklahoma State wins the Big 12.  The PAC-12 looks deeper and stronger this year, so Arizona could be in line for a lofty seed if it meets expectations.  Syracuse is big and long and well, Syracuse-like.
The 3's - Ohio State, Florida, Memphis and Marquette
I think Ohio State will be really good, I just don't know if this is their best edition.  Florida has a lot of talent that isn't playing and needs to come together when it does.  Memphis will get an RPI bump from a better conference and has the talent to be here.  I have Marquette winning the new Big East, which should garner a high seed, although its depth might produce 4-5 losses for the league champ.
The 4's - Wisconsin, Michigan, New Mexico and VCU
I don't see how Michigan can be as good with Burke and Hardaway gone.  Wisconsin is always in this range and has two of the better victories thus far.  Recent history suggests the Mountain West and Atlantic 10 champs would be seeded in this range as well and given the talent at New Mexico and VCU, it is the perfect spot.
The 5's - Baylor, Connecticut, Notre Dame and Creighton
Can Baylor's performance match it's talent?  Will Connecticut be better now that they are tournament-eligible?  Do you think Doug McDermott is going out without a special year?  Oh, and Notre Dame is about as solid as it gets.
The 6's - North Carolina, UCLA, Wichita State and St. Louis
What has changed at Carolina to vault them much higher from last year's 8 seed?  The Shockers earn this spot based on talent and last season's run, but the MVC will be a little down this year minus Creighton.  St. Louis should give VCU all they can handle in the A-10.
The 7's - Villanova, Gonzaga, Virginia, and Oregon
Gonzaga isn't going anywhere, but last year was special.  Virginia will give the rest of the ACC fits and could be a surprise.  I also really like Villanova and Oregon to build on last year's momentum.
The 8's - Tennessee, Iowa, Cincinnati and Georgetown
I think this is the year Tennessee and Iowa get back to the tournament.  Georgetown will take a step back, but not a huge one and Cincinnati will be solid and no fun to play as usual.
The 9's - Colorado, Iowa State, Indiana and Boise State
I think Indiana may be a bubble team.  Colorado could go much higher if the talent plays to its level.  Iowa State should be good enough to get a 4th bid for the Big 12, even in a down year.  Boise State might be the 2nd best in the Mountain West.
The 10's - Harvard, Massachusetts, Georgia Tech and Arizona State
Harvard's poll ranking will probably be better than it's actual seed.  I like UMass better than LaSalle in the A-10.  Georgia Tech and Arizona State are gut picks based on talent returning and coming in.
The 11's - Missouri, UNLV, St. John's and California
This group nears the bubble and all four might hover here all year.  In the cases excluding St. John's, the talent that left is potentially hard to replace.  For the Red Storm, they need to put it all together.
The 12's - LSU, Providence, BYU, San Diego State, North Dakota State and Southern Miss
The Tigers, Friars, Cougars and Aztecs get the final 4 spots.  For LSU and Providence, they have to prove ready of the tournament step.  For BYU and San Diego State, they must once again show they are perennial members of the Big Dance despite personnel losses.
The 13's - Western Kentucky, Eastern Kentucky, New Mexico State and Toledo
The 14's - Iona, UWGB, Towson and Northwestern State
The 15's - Davidson, UCSB, Florida Gulf Coast and Vermont
The 16's - LIU-Brooklyn, Norfolk State, Texas Southern, Boston U., Weber State and High Point