The Great Bracketology Conundrum - Are we predicting what the field should be or are we predicting what the committee will do? I have always attempted to do the latter. And here are some facts that we know:
1) The Committee always does a few things with seeding that make no sense
2) The Committee is getting together for a 2nd time this week and has not been completing Bracketology for the last few months. They are taking a fresh look at resumes and team sheets without bias of where a team was 2 1/2 weeks ago
3) The Committee always does a few things with seeding that make no sense
Now that we know that, we don't really know anything. It's really just for fun. So let's compare a few teams to help try and predict the unpredictable!
Top #2 Seed - Tennessee vs Alabama
Tennessee 25-6 (Net:5, KenPom:5) 5-5 in Quad 1A, 10-6 in Quad 1, 14-6 in Quad 1+2
SOS 13, Non-Conf SOS 132. Wins over Florida, Alabama, Illinois, Texas A&M, Louisville, Missouri
Alabama 24-7 (Net:6, KenPom:6) 9-5 in Quad 1A, 11-7 in Quad 1, 18-7 in Quad 1+2
SOS 1, Non-Conf SOS 10. Wins over Auburn, Houston, Kentucky x2, Illinois, Texas A&M
On Feb 15th, the committee revealed a mock top 16 by going through the same exercise they will do this week. At that time, Alabama was #2 and Tennessee was #5. Since that reveal, Tennessee went 5-1 with wins over Alabama, at A&M and Vanderbilt and a loss at Mississippi. Alabama went 3-4 with wins over Auburn, Kentucky and Mississippi State, but also losing at home to Auburn and Florida, as well as dropping games to Tennessee and Missouri.
Alabama clearly has the advantage in Quad 1A victories and SOS. Tennessee still has the higher NET and KenPom despite that Alabama advantage, plus it lost one fewer game and beat Alabama head-to-head. I am not sure what way the committee will lean here. Last year the final #1 seed came down to North Carolina and Tennessee. North Carolina ultimately got the final #1 and also had a head-to-head win over Tennessee.
These teams also sit on opposite sides of the SEC tournament bracket, so the only way they will meet again is the SEC Final. Obviously that would provide an easy tie-breaker. Also an easy tie-breaker if either loses their quarterfinal or only one advances to the SEC Final.
A hidden reason why this is important...based on how the top line is shaking out, their is only one spot left to play the first two rounds in Lexington, the preferred site for both. Cleveland would be the alternative for Tennessee and potentially Alabama as well.
Final #3 Seed - Iowa State vs Maryland
Iowa State 23-8 (Net:9, KenPom:10) 2-4 in Quad 1A, 7-6 in Quad 1, 14-8 in Quad 1+2
SOS 37, Non-Conf SOS 98. Wins over Texas Tech, Arizona, Kansas, Marquette
Maryland 24-7 (Net:11, KenPom:13) 2-4 in Quad 1A, 7-6 in Quad 1, 13-7 in Quad 1+2
SOS 53, Non-Conf SOS 326. Wins over Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, UCLA
Two very similar resumes except for that Non-Conference SOS. C'mon Maryland, do better! That being said, the margin is still close and the committee may elect a 2nd team from the higher-rated Big 10 over a 3rd team from the Big 12 at this point. With the amount of Big 10 Teams in the 4 to 5 range, it also might make bracketing a little easier, but that is a secret only that room knows if they do. Right now I still have Iowa State ahead of Maryland on the seed list, but I am at least considering and monitoring this one.
Seeding Discrepancy - Arizona vs Illinois
Arizona 20-11 (Net:13, KenPom:16) 4-7 in Quad 1A, 7-11 in Quad 1, 11-11 in Quad 1+2
SOS 8, Non-Conf SOS 34. Wins over Texas Tech, Iowa State, BYU and Baylor x2
Illinois 20-11 (Net:15, KenPom:18) 4-7 in Quad 1A, 8-9 in Quad 1, 14-11 in Quad 1+2
SOS 9, Non-Conf SOS 23. Wins over Purdue, Missouri, Michigan, Oregon, Wisconsin and UCLA
I have seen Arizona 3 seed lines better than Illinois in some bracketology renderings. I am guessing that is because Arizona had an ascension in Big 12 Conference Play while Illinois was faltering. The Illini recovered somewhat while Arizona lost 5 of 8 to finish and now these resumes look eerily similar. Illinois does have a ridiculous loss to Duke by 43 in February, but they were fighting injury and illness that week. It's not a complete pass, but just context.
Let's play a fun game...What's Arizona's best non-conference win by NET? If you guessed Samford at 116, you Win! Illinois beat Missouri and Arkansas out of the SEC and has conference wins to match Arizona's, including wins over Wisconsin and UCLA, both of whom beat the Wildcats. Illinois is 10-7 against teams projected to be in the field or 9-7 if you take Ohio State out. Arizona is 6-10 against teams projected to be in the field.
I finally dropped Arizona to a 5 and ascended Illinois to a 6. I am not so sure the Illini doesn't have a better resume. Arizona absolutely pummeled a bunch of really bad non-conference teams, lifting their metrics above where their performance has dictated. That and a reputation has carried them in the bracketology world. I am curious how that reputation and inflated metrics will be seen by the committee.
Conference Foes - Missouri vs Ole Miss
Missouri 21-10 (Net:21, KenPom:20) 4-5 in Quad 1A, 6-10 in Quad 1, 9-10 in Quad 1+2
SOS 24, Non-Conf SOS 217. Wins over Florida, Alabama, Kansas, Ole Miss and Georgia
Ole Miss 21-10 (Net:27, KenPom 27) 5-6 in Quad 1A, 7-9 in Quad 1, 12-10 in Quad 1+2
SOS 7, Non-Conf SOS 71. Wins over Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Louisville, BYU and Georgia
Missouri was red-hot and ascended as high as a 3 seed in my bracketology. They have now lost 4 of 5 and the whole body of work now tells a different story. Ole Miss is behind Missouri in the metrics and lost head-to head, but has more wins in all the top Quads and a better SOS. Once again Missouri is boosted by their ability to absolutely smash a few inferior non-conference foes, including a 72 point win over Mississippi Valley State.
It appears as though the bracketology world has finally changed its tune and Missouri is behind Ole Miss in the matrix. I am in agreement with this assessment. The top end wins of these two teams might carry more weight than the industry is projecting. While the metrics favor the two teams above that I just compared, it can be argued that the wins of Missouri and Ole Miss are better than those of Arizona and Illinois. These teams are all in the same general seeding area, we will just have to see what the committee conveniently looks at when deciphering between these teams.
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