NCAA Tournament Bracket Prediction - March 3, 2018
Seeds
1's - Virgina, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
2's - Michigan State, North Carolina, Purdue, Duke
3's - Auburn, Tennessee, Cincinnati, Clemson
4's - West Virginia, Wichita State, Texas Tech, Arizona
5's - Kentucky, Ohio State, Michigan, Miami (FL)
6's - Houston, TCU, Virginia Tech, Florida
7's - Gonzaga, Nevada, Arkansas, Texas A&M
8's - Florida State, Seton Hall, Rhode Island, Creighton
9's - NC State, USC, Missouri, Arizona State
10's - Butler, Oklahoma, Providence, St. Bonaventure
11's - Middle Tennessee, Louisville, Kansas State, (Washington, St. Mary's)
12's - (Baylor, Alabama)* Loyola, Louisiana, Buffalo
13's - New Mexico State, South Dakota State, Vermont, Murray State
14's - Montana, Northeastern, Bucknell, UNCG
15's - Iona, Penn, Northern Kentucky, UC-Davis
16's - Radford, Wagner (Prairie View A&M, Bethune-Cookman, FGCU, Nicholls State)
First 4 out - Texas, UCLA, Marquette, Syracuse
*Even though I don't believe the committee will feed a play-in game to San Diego, for purposes of seeding I am not concerned with that at this point
SOUTH (ATLANTA)
1 Virgina (Pittsburgh)
2 Purdue (Detroit)
3 Auburn (Nashville)
4 Texas Tech (San Diego)
5 Kentucky (San Diego)
6 Virgina Tech (Nashville)
7 Nevada (Detroit)
8 Seton Hall (Pittsburgh)
9 Arizona State (Pittsburgh)
10 Butler (Detroit)
11 Middle Tennessee (Nashville)
12 Loyola (San Diego)
13 New Mexico State (San Diego)
14 Northeastern (Nashville)
15 UC-Davis (Detroit)
16 FGCU/Prairie View A&M (Pittsburgh)
EAST (BOSTON)
1 Villanova (Pittsburgh)
2 Duke (Charlotte)
3 Cincinnati (Wichita)
4 West Virginia (Boise)
5 Ohio State (Boise)
6 TCU (Wichita)
7 Arkansas (Charlotte)
8 Rhode Island (Pittsburgh)
9 NC State (Pittsburgh)
10 Providence (Charlotte)
11Washington/St. Mary's (Wichita)
12 Louisiana (Boise)
13 Vermont (Boise)
14 Montana (Wichita)
15 Northern Kentucky (Charlotte)
16 Radford (Pittsburgh)
MIDWEST (OMAHA)
1 Xavier (Nashville)
2 Michigan State (Detroit)
3 Clemson (Dallas)
4 Wichita State (Boise)
5 Michigan (Boise)
6 Florida (Dallas)
7 Texas A&M (Detroit)
8 Florida State (Nashville)
9 USC (Nashville)
10 Oklahoma (Detroit)
11 Louisville (Dallas)
12 Buffalo (Boise)
13 South Dakota State (Boise)
14 Bucknell (Dallas)
15 Iona (Detroit)
16 Bethune-Cookman/Nicholls State (Nashville)
WEST (LOS ANGELES)
1 Kansas (Wichita)
2 North Carolina (Charlotte)
3 Tennessee (Dallas)
4 Arizona (San Diego)
5 Miami (FL) (San Diego)
6 Houston (Dallas)
7 Gonzaga (Charlotte)
8 Creighton (Wichita)
9 Missouri (Wichita)
10 Saint Bonaventure (Charlotte)
11 Kansas State (Dallas)
12 Baylor/Alabama (San Diego)
13 Murray State (San Diego)
14 UNC-Greensboro (Dallas)
15 Penn (Charlotte)
16 Wagner(Wichita)
Sports Blog specializing in Bracketology
Saturday, March 3, 2018
Friday, March 2, 2018
NCAA Tournament Bracket Prediction - March 2, 2018
NCAA Tournament Bracket Prediction - March 2, 2018
Just a little sweep through with minimal changes. I bumped Arizona up now that Trier has been re-instated. I still am struggling with the last #5 seed, so Miami keeps being a placeholder until someone grabs it. Minor tweaks below that.
Seeds
1's - Virgina, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
2's - Michigan State, North Carolina, Purdue, Duke
3's - Auburn, Tennessee, Cincinnati, Clemson
4's - West Virginia, Wichita State, Texas Tech, Arizona
5's - Kentucky, Ohio State, Michigan, Miami (FL)
6's - Houston, TCU, Virginia Tech, Florida
7's - Gonzaga, Rhode Island, Nevada, Arkansas
8's - Florida State, Seton Hall, Texas A&M, Creighton
9's - NC State, USC, Missouri, Arizona State
10's - Butler, Oklahoma, Providence, St. Bonaventure
11's - Middle Tennessee, Louisville, Kansas State, (Washington, St. Mary's)
12's - (Baylor, Alabama)* Loyola, Louisiana, Buffalo
13's - New Mexico State, South Dakota State, Vermont, Murray State
14's - Rider, Northeastern, Bucknell, UNCG
15's - Montana, Penn, Northern Kentucky, UC-Davis
16's - UNC-Asheville, Wagner (Prairie View A&M, Bethune-Cookman, FGCU, Nicholls State)
First 4 out - Texas, UCLA, Marquette, Syracuse
*Even though I don't believe the committee will feed a play-in game to San Diego, for purposes of seeding I am not concerned with that at this point
SOUTH (ATLANTA)
1 Virgina (Pittsburgh)
2 Purdue (Detroit)
3 Auburn (Nashville)
4 Texas Tech (San Diego)
5 Kentucky (San Diego)
6 Virgina Tech (Nashville)
7 Rhode Island (Detroit)
8 Seton Hall (Pittsburgh)
9 Arizona State (Pittsburgh)
10 Butler (Detroit)
11 Middle Tennessee (Nashville)
12 Loyola (San Diego)
13 New Mexico State (San Diego)
14 Northeastern (Nashville)
15 UC-Davis (Detroit)
16 FGCU/Prairie View A&M (Pittsburgh)
EAST (BOSTON)
1 Villanova (Pittsburgh)
2 Duke (Charlotte)
3 Cincinnati (Wichita)
4 West Virginia (Boise)
5 Ohio State (Boise)
6 TCU (Wichita)
7 Arkansas (Charlotte)
8 Texas A&M (Pittsburgh)
9 NC State (Pittsburgh)
10 Providence (Charlotte)
11Washington/St. Mary's (Wichita)
12 Louisiana (Boise)
13 Vermont (Boise)
14 Rider (Wichita)
15 Northern Kentucky (Charlotte)
16 UNC-Asheville (Pittsburgh)
MIDWEST (OMAHA)
1 Xavier (Nashville)
2 Michigan State (Detroit)
3 Clemson (Dallas)
4 Wichita State (Boise)
5 Michigan (Boise)
6 Florida (Dallas)
7 Nevada (Detroit)
8 Florida State (Nashville)
9 USC (Nashville)
10 Oklahoma (Detroit)
11 Louisville (Dallas)
12 Buffalo (Boise)
13 South Dakota State (Boise)
14 Bucknell (Dallas)
15 Montana (Detroit)
16 Bethune-Cookman/Nicholls State (Nashville)
WEST (LOS ANGELES)
1 Kansas (Wichita)
2 North Carolina (Charlotte)
3 Tennessee (Dallas)
4 Arizona (San Diego)
5 Miami (FL) (San Diego)
6 Houston (Dallas)
7 Gonzaga (Charlotte)
8 Creighton (Wichita)
9 Missouri (Wichita)
10 Saint Bonaventure (Charlotte)
11 Kansas State (Dallas)
12 Baylor/Alabama (San Diego)
13 Murray State (San Diego)
14 UNC-Greensboro (Dallas)
15 Penn (Charlotte)
16 Wagner(Wichita)
Just a little sweep through with minimal changes. I bumped Arizona up now that Trier has been re-instated. I still am struggling with the last #5 seed, so Miami keeps being a placeholder until someone grabs it. Minor tweaks below that.
Seeds
1's - Virgina, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
2's - Michigan State, North Carolina, Purdue, Duke
3's - Auburn, Tennessee, Cincinnati, Clemson
4's - West Virginia, Wichita State, Texas Tech, Arizona
5's - Kentucky, Ohio State, Michigan, Miami (FL)
6's - Houston, TCU, Virginia Tech, Florida
7's - Gonzaga, Rhode Island, Nevada, Arkansas
8's - Florida State, Seton Hall, Texas A&M, Creighton
9's - NC State, USC, Missouri, Arizona State
10's - Butler, Oklahoma, Providence, St. Bonaventure
11's - Middle Tennessee, Louisville, Kansas State, (Washington, St. Mary's)
12's - (Baylor, Alabama)* Loyola, Louisiana, Buffalo
13's - New Mexico State, South Dakota State, Vermont, Murray State
14's - Rider, Northeastern, Bucknell, UNCG
15's - Montana, Penn, Northern Kentucky, UC-Davis
16's - UNC-Asheville, Wagner (Prairie View A&M, Bethune-Cookman, FGCU, Nicholls State)
First 4 out - Texas, UCLA, Marquette, Syracuse
*Even though I don't believe the committee will feed a play-in game to San Diego, for purposes of seeding I am not concerned with that at this point
SOUTH (ATLANTA)
1 Virgina (Pittsburgh)
2 Purdue (Detroit)
3 Auburn (Nashville)
4 Texas Tech (San Diego)
5 Kentucky (San Diego)
6 Virgina Tech (Nashville)
7 Rhode Island (Detroit)
8 Seton Hall (Pittsburgh)
9 Arizona State (Pittsburgh)
10 Butler (Detroit)
11 Middle Tennessee (Nashville)
12 Loyola (San Diego)
13 New Mexico State (San Diego)
14 Northeastern (Nashville)
15 UC-Davis (Detroit)
16 FGCU/Prairie View A&M (Pittsburgh)
EAST (BOSTON)
1 Villanova (Pittsburgh)
2 Duke (Charlotte)
3 Cincinnati (Wichita)
4 West Virginia (Boise)
5 Ohio State (Boise)
6 TCU (Wichita)
7 Arkansas (Charlotte)
8 Texas A&M (Pittsburgh)
9 NC State (Pittsburgh)
10 Providence (Charlotte)
11Washington/St. Mary's (Wichita)
12 Louisiana (Boise)
13 Vermont (Boise)
14 Rider (Wichita)
15 Northern Kentucky (Charlotte)
16 UNC-Asheville (Pittsburgh)
MIDWEST (OMAHA)
1 Xavier (Nashville)
2 Michigan State (Detroit)
3 Clemson (Dallas)
4 Wichita State (Boise)
5 Michigan (Boise)
6 Florida (Dallas)
7 Nevada (Detroit)
8 Florida State (Nashville)
9 USC (Nashville)
10 Oklahoma (Detroit)
11 Louisville (Dallas)
12 Buffalo (Boise)
13 South Dakota State (Boise)
14 Bucknell (Dallas)
15 Montana (Detroit)
16 Bethune-Cookman/Nicholls State (Nashville)
WEST (LOS ANGELES)
1 Kansas (Wichita)
2 North Carolina (Charlotte)
3 Tennessee (Dallas)
4 Arizona (San Diego)
5 Miami (FL) (San Diego)
6 Houston (Dallas)
7 Gonzaga (Charlotte)
8 Creighton (Wichita)
9 Missouri (Wichita)
10 Saint Bonaventure (Charlotte)
11 Kansas State (Dallas)
12 Baylor/Alabama (San Diego)
13 Murray State (San Diego)
14 UNC-Greensboro (Dallas)
15 Penn (Charlotte)
16 Wagner(Wichita)
Thursday, March 1, 2018
2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament - Bid Stealers
One of my favorite things to watch over the next 10 days is whether the proverbial bubble shrinks or all of those borderline at-large teams get to let out a huge sigh of relief. The reason for this is the bid stealers. The thieves of an NCAA tournament bid usually come from smaller conferences where the top team or teams is already locked in. A major conference team can make a huge conference tournament run, but there are usually too many obstacles for them to truly steal a bid. So who are the teams that have the bubble teams on edge? Which conference tournaments should they be tuning into for a closer look?
1. Mountain West Tournament (Las Vegas) - March 7-10
Nevada is a lock for the NCAA tournament. The only thing that will hurt Nevada by not winning the Mountain West Tournament is their seeding. Beyond Nevada, no other team would be included in the Field of 68. While not as strong as it has been in recent memory, the Mountain West still supports some quality teams that can easily take home the tournament in a one-and-done scenario.
Boise State is a really good team without the quality wins to make it a serious at-large contender. They have played Nevada close this year and could get them the 3rd time around. San Diego State is never a team to overlook. They have won 5 games in a row and sport a victory over Gonzaga this year. They might be my favorite to steal this bid. Throw in Wyoming who already has defeated Nevada and the host UNLV team that also defeated the Wolfpack and you have a dangerous quad of teams that could send fans in Austin and Seattle into a panic.
2. Atlantic 10 Conference (Washington D.C.) - March 7-11
The A-10 is a little trickier. I am less confident that Rhode Island and Saint Bonaventure have locked up bids. The most likely result is that this is at most a 2 bid league, but there is an outside chance it becomes a 3-bid league. Davidson is the top contender to turn things up-side-down. Not a huge bid stealer risk here, but one to watch.
3. American Athletic Conference (Orlando, FL) - March 8-11
Cincinnati, Wichita State and Houston are locks. There is a high likelihood that one of these 3 teams will take down the AAC Tournament Championship. It is not impossible though to think that another team could upset the apple cart and pull of a couple upsets that put them into the Big Dance and steal an at-large bid. Just keep an eye on Tulsa, UCF and Temple. Especially the 4 or 5 seed that would only have to beat Cincinnati and then the Championship Game as opposed to going through all 3.
4. West Coast Conference - (Las Vegas) in progress
Yesterday I spoke about Gonzaga's seeding dilemma and the weak resume of St. Mary's. What if both these teams are safe? It has been a long time since one of the favorites failed to win the West Coast Conference tournament, but it is not impossible to fathom that the door is a little more open to that this season. BYU would be the obvious bid stealing threat, but San Diego and San Francisco would have a fighters chance as well.
5. PAC-12 Conference (Las Vegas) - March 7-10
The one major conference that makes my list is the PAC-12. Maybe Alonzo Trier's return makes Arizona an overwhelming favorite. Outside of Arizona, this conference is wide open. With USC and Arizona State as shaky locks right now and Washington, UCLA and Utah as fringe bubble teams, a surprise winner of the PAC-12 tournament could solidify the conference with 4 bids. Oregon and Stanford probably should not be counted out either.
While there seems like very few bid stealing possibilities, just 1 or 2 will help the committee sort out a soft bubble.
1. Mountain West Tournament (Las Vegas) - March 7-10
Nevada is a lock for the NCAA tournament. The only thing that will hurt Nevada by not winning the Mountain West Tournament is their seeding. Beyond Nevada, no other team would be included in the Field of 68. While not as strong as it has been in recent memory, the Mountain West still supports some quality teams that can easily take home the tournament in a one-and-done scenario.
Boise State is a really good team without the quality wins to make it a serious at-large contender. They have played Nevada close this year and could get them the 3rd time around. San Diego State is never a team to overlook. They have won 5 games in a row and sport a victory over Gonzaga this year. They might be my favorite to steal this bid. Throw in Wyoming who already has defeated Nevada and the host UNLV team that also defeated the Wolfpack and you have a dangerous quad of teams that could send fans in Austin and Seattle into a panic.
2. Atlantic 10 Conference (Washington D.C.) - March 7-11
The A-10 is a little trickier. I am less confident that Rhode Island and Saint Bonaventure have locked up bids. The most likely result is that this is at most a 2 bid league, but there is an outside chance it becomes a 3-bid league. Davidson is the top contender to turn things up-side-down. Not a huge bid stealer risk here, but one to watch.
3. American Athletic Conference (Orlando, FL) - March 8-11
Cincinnati, Wichita State and Houston are locks. There is a high likelihood that one of these 3 teams will take down the AAC Tournament Championship. It is not impossible though to think that another team could upset the apple cart and pull of a couple upsets that put them into the Big Dance and steal an at-large bid. Just keep an eye on Tulsa, UCF and Temple. Especially the 4 or 5 seed that would only have to beat Cincinnati and then the Championship Game as opposed to going through all 3.
4. West Coast Conference - (Las Vegas) in progress
Yesterday I spoke about Gonzaga's seeding dilemma and the weak resume of St. Mary's. What if both these teams are safe? It has been a long time since one of the favorites failed to win the West Coast Conference tournament, but it is not impossible to fathom that the door is a little more open to that this season. BYU would be the obvious bid stealing threat, but San Diego and San Francisco would have a fighters chance as well.
5. PAC-12 Conference (Las Vegas) - March 7-10
The one major conference that makes my list is the PAC-12. Maybe Alonzo Trier's return makes Arizona an overwhelming favorite. Outside of Arizona, this conference is wide open. With USC and Arizona State as shaky locks right now and Washington, UCLA and Utah as fringe bubble teams, a surprise winner of the PAC-12 tournament could solidify the conference with 4 bids. Oregon and Stanford probably should not be counted out either.
While there seems like very few bid stealing possibilities, just 1 or 2 will help the committee sort out a soft bubble.
Wednesday, February 28, 2018
NCAA Tournament Bracket Prediction - February 28, 2018
NCAA Tournament Bracket Prediction - February 28, 2018
Seeds
1's - Virgina, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
2's - Michigan State, North Carolina, Purdue, Duke
3's - Auburn, Tennessee, Cincinnati, Clemson
4's - West Virginia, Wichita State, Texas Tech, Ohio State
5's - Kentucky, Arizona, Michigan, Miami (FL)
6's - Houston, TCU, Virginia Tech, Florida
7's - Gonzaga, Rhode Island, Nevada, Seton Hall
8's - NC State, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Creighton
9's - Florida State, Butler, USC, Missouri
10's - Arizona State, Oklahoma, Providence, St. Bonaventure
11's - Middle Tennessee, Louisville, Kansas State, (Alabama, St. Mary's)
12's - (Baylor, Washington)* Loyola, Louisiana, Buffalo
13's - New Mexico State, South Dakota State, Vermont, Murray State
14's - Rider, Northeastern, Bucknell, UNCG
15's - Montana, Penn, Northern Kentucky, Wagner
16's - UNC-Asheville, UC-Irvine (Southern, North Carolina A&T, FGCU, Nicholls State)
First 4 out - Texas, UCLA, Marquette, Syracuse
*Even though I don't believe the committee will feed a play-in game to San Diego, for purposes of seeding I am not concerned with that at this point
SOUTH (ATLANTA)
1 Virgina (Pittsburgh)
2 Purdue (Detroit)
3 Auburn (Nashville)
4 Texas Tech (San Diego)
5 Kentucky (San Diego)
6 Virgina Tech (Nashville)
7 Seton Hall (Detroit)
8 Arkansas (Pittsburgh)
9 Butler (Pittsburgh)
10 St. Bonaventure (Detroit)
11 Middle Tennessee (Nashville)
12 Baylor/Washington (San Diego)
13 New Mexico State (San Diego)
14 Northeastern (Nashville)
15 Wagner (Detroit)
16 FGCU/Southern (Pittsburgh)
EAST (BOSTON)
1 Villanova (Pittsburgh)
2 Duke (Charlotte)
3 Cincinnati (Wichita)
4 West Virginia (San Diego)
5 Arizona (San Diego)
6 TCU (Wichita)
7 Rhode Island (Charlotte)
8 Texas A&M (Pittsburgh)
9 Florida State (Pittsburgh)
10 Providence (Charlotte)
11Alabama/St. Mary's (Wichita)
12 Louisiana (San Diego)
13 Vermont (San Diego)
14 Rider (Wichita)
15 Northern Kentucky (Charlotte)
16 UNC-Asheville (Pittsburgh)
MIDWEST (OMAHA)
1 Xavier (Nashville)
2 Michigan State (Detroit)
3 Clemson (Dallas)
4 Wichita State (Boise)
5 Michigan (Boise)
6 Florida (Dallas)
7 Nevada (Detroit)
8 NC State (Nashville)
9 USC (Nashville)
10 Oklahoma (Detroit)
11 Louisville (Dallas)
12 Buffalo (Boise)
13 South Dakota State (Boise)
14 Bucknell (Dallas)
15 Montana (Detroit)
16 North Carolina A&T/Nicholls State (Nashville)
WEST (LOS ANGELES)
1 Kansas (Wichita)
2 North Carolina (Charlotte)
3 Tennessee (Dallas)
4 Ohio State (Boise)
5 Miami (FL) (Boise)
6 Houston (Dallas)
7 Gonzaga (Charlotte)
8 Creighton (Wichita)
9 Missouri (Wichita)
10 Arizona State (Charlotte)
11 Kansas State (Dallas)
12 Loyola (Boise)
13 Murray State (Boise)
14 UNC-Greensboro (Dallas)
15 Penn (Charlotte)
16 UC-Irvine (Wichita)
Seeds
1's - Virgina, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
2's - Michigan State, North Carolina, Purdue, Duke
3's - Auburn, Tennessee, Cincinnati, Clemson
4's - West Virginia, Wichita State, Texas Tech, Ohio State
5's - Kentucky, Arizona, Michigan, Miami (FL)
6's - Houston, TCU, Virginia Tech, Florida
7's - Gonzaga, Rhode Island, Nevada, Seton Hall
8's - NC State, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Creighton
9's - Florida State, Butler, USC, Missouri
10's - Arizona State, Oklahoma, Providence, St. Bonaventure
11's - Middle Tennessee, Louisville, Kansas State, (Alabama, St. Mary's)
12's - (Baylor, Washington)* Loyola, Louisiana, Buffalo
13's - New Mexico State, South Dakota State, Vermont, Murray State
14's - Rider, Northeastern, Bucknell, UNCG
15's - Montana, Penn, Northern Kentucky, Wagner
16's - UNC-Asheville, UC-Irvine (Southern, North Carolina A&T, FGCU, Nicholls State)
First 4 out - Texas, UCLA, Marquette, Syracuse
*Even though I don't believe the committee will feed a play-in game to San Diego, for purposes of seeding I am not concerned with that at this point
SOUTH (ATLANTA)
1 Virgina (Pittsburgh)
2 Purdue (Detroit)
3 Auburn (Nashville)
4 Texas Tech (San Diego)
5 Kentucky (San Diego)
6 Virgina Tech (Nashville)
7 Seton Hall (Detroit)
8 Arkansas (Pittsburgh)
9 Butler (Pittsburgh)
10 St. Bonaventure (Detroit)
11 Middle Tennessee (Nashville)
12 Baylor/Washington (San Diego)
13 New Mexico State (San Diego)
14 Northeastern (Nashville)
15 Wagner (Detroit)
16 FGCU/Southern (Pittsburgh)
EAST (BOSTON)
1 Villanova (Pittsburgh)
2 Duke (Charlotte)
3 Cincinnati (Wichita)
4 West Virginia (San Diego)
5 Arizona (San Diego)
6 TCU (Wichita)
7 Rhode Island (Charlotte)
8 Texas A&M (Pittsburgh)
9 Florida State (Pittsburgh)
10 Providence (Charlotte)
11Alabama/St. Mary's (Wichita)
12 Louisiana (San Diego)
13 Vermont (San Diego)
14 Rider (Wichita)
15 Northern Kentucky (Charlotte)
16 UNC-Asheville (Pittsburgh)
MIDWEST (OMAHA)
1 Xavier (Nashville)
2 Michigan State (Detroit)
3 Clemson (Dallas)
4 Wichita State (Boise)
5 Michigan (Boise)
6 Florida (Dallas)
7 Nevada (Detroit)
8 NC State (Nashville)
9 USC (Nashville)
10 Oklahoma (Detroit)
11 Louisville (Dallas)
12 Buffalo (Boise)
13 South Dakota State (Boise)
14 Bucknell (Dallas)
15 Montana (Detroit)
16 North Carolina A&T/Nicholls State (Nashville)
WEST (LOS ANGELES)
1 Kansas (Wichita)
2 North Carolina (Charlotte)
3 Tennessee (Dallas)
4 Ohio State (Boise)
5 Miami (FL) (Boise)
6 Houston (Dallas)
7 Gonzaga (Charlotte)
8 Creighton (Wichita)
9 Missouri (Wichita)
10 Arizona State (Charlotte)
11 Kansas State (Dallas)
12 Loyola (Boise)
13 Murray State (Boise)
14 UNC-Greensboro (Dallas)
15 Penn (Charlotte)
16 UC-Irvine (Wichita)
2018 Men's Basketball Tournament - February 28 Bracket Thoughts
With selection Sunday fast approaching, I have been trying to sort through all the teams and numbers to as always, help determine who will make the "Big Dance" and where each team will most likely be seeded. This year is providing some new challenges. First, the glut of teams in the middle of the pack in the Big 12, SEC, ACC and Big East leaves very little to differentiate these teams. Second, with the adoption of the new "quads", we are not sure how much weight the committee will give to this new grouping as opposed to falling back on past principles. Finally, determining the field is a challenge every year. It is what makes it fun. It is what makes this the best time of the year.
I will be publishing my first field of 68 this week, but as I put it together, here are some of my main questions that I am struggling with.
1. What to do with Gonzaga?
Last year, Gonzaga finally broke through after years of high seeds and promise and made it to the Championship Game. This year, the Zags have posted a solid 27-4 record and look like your typical Gonzaga team that has a shot in March. Right now, they are slotted as a #5 seed in the bracket matrix, with some showing them as high as a #3 seed.
Here is the problem I am having. Gonzaga's RPI is down to 30. They have three Quad 1 wins (Ohio State on a neutral floor and at St. Mary's and Washington). I will get to the last two teams later, but I have them both squarely on the bubble. The Quad 2 home win against Creighton looks good, but the Neutral floor win against Texas gets worse by the day as the Longhorns play their way into serious jeopardy. If you look at the team sheet for Gonzaga, their results based metrics have them at #25, while the predictive metrics have them at #9. How much will the committee consider these predictive metrics is another question to add to the list.
When Gonzaga has been seeded highly as a 1 or 2, they have always had a top 10 RPI. I went back and found two recent versions of teams similar to this years team. In 2012, Gonzaga was 25-6 with an RPI of 25. They received a #7 seed that season. In 2014, Gonzaga was 28-6 with an RPI of 20. they received a #8 seed in 2014. And just ask St. Mary's how the committee typically views the West Coast Conference.
2. Who is the last #3 seed?
I have 11 teams separated at the top, but who is the #12 team on the seed list?
Top 11: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas, Michigan State, North Carolina, Purdue, Duke, Auburn, Tennessee and Cincinnati.
I see Wichita State, Texas Tech, West Virginia and Clemson as the 4 currently vying for that spot. Wichita State has a resume that lacks the high end wins with only three in Quad 1, but that number is 13 when adding in Quad 2. Texas Tech has 6 Quad 1 wins and is 10-8 against Quad 1 and 2. West Virginia has 7 Quad 1 wins and is 13-8 against Quad 1 and 2, but their RPI is 29 this morning. Clemson has a sterling RPI of 10 this morning, but they have only 4 Quad 1 wins and are 10-7 against Quads 1 and 2. Clemson's worst loss is to #49 NC State.
Hopefully one of these teams will separate themselves in the next 10 days.
3. What will the committee do with the "faders"?
Every year they say the entire resume is taken into consideration. Let's put that to the test this year with Oklahoma, Arizona State and Alabama.
Oklahoma is 3-10 in their last 13 games and now sits at 17-12 with an RPI still at #37. They still have a win over Kansas, @Wichita State and a sweep of TCU. They have no losses outside Quad 2. They seem safe for inclusion, but maybe their seed will take a slight hit.
Arizona State sits at 19-9 with an RPI of 42. They have lost 3 in a row and sit at 7-9 in the mediocre PAC-12. They have only 3 Quad 1 wins, but two of them are a neutral court win against Xavier and winning at Kansas. I am not sure there are two better wins out there.
Alabama is now 17-13 with an RPI down to 57 after losing their 4th game in a row. They have to go to Texas A&M to finish off the SEC regular season and if they lose that and in the SEC tournament, they will have 15 losses. They are 2-7 away, but did go 3-1 in neutral court games. They have wins over Auburn, Tennessee, Rhode Island and Texas A&M, but all at home. The bracket matrix has Alabama as a #9, but the more I look, they are closer to the bubble than that.
4. I am not hating on the West Coast Conference, but is St. Mary's safe?
Guess where teams from the West Coast conference with a 27-4 record, RPI of 38 and one quality win get seeded? If you answered the NIT, then you are correct. Some matrix contributors have them as high as a #6 seed. I am not sure what to make of them yet. They may survive the bubble due to the lack of quality at the bottom, but this resume is weak. In 2016, St. Mary's was 26-5 with an RPI of 38 and two wins over Gonzaga and went to the NIT. I might suggest St. Mary's win the West Coast tournament. It is just a gut feeling.
5. How do you separate the middle?
If my bracket goes completely wrong, it is because I will mess up the whole middle of the bracket. Does the committee side with RPI or quality wins or lack of bad losses or road record? How they sort out Creighton from USC from Arkansas from Florida State will be interesting. Virginia Tech has beaten Virginia, Duke, North Carolina and Clemson. Yet they are 21-9 with an RPI of 46. Closer look says that is dragged down by playing the worst of the worst in the non-conference schedule, which frankly is the next topic the RPI should consider tweaking. What is the difference between the teams ranked 250 to 350? There should be a cap on the negative impact those awful teams have on the RPI. That discussion is for another day.
Time to put together my first bracket prediction of the year.
I will be publishing my first field of 68 this week, but as I put it together, here are some of my main questions that I am struggling with.
1. What to do with Gonzaga?
Last year, Gonzaga finally broke through after years of high seeds and promise and made it to the Championship Game. This year, the Zags have posted a solid 27-4 record and look like your typical Gonzaga team that has a shot in March. Right now, they are slotted as a #5 seed in the bracket matrix, with some showing them as high as a #3 seed.
Here is the problem I am having. Gonzaga's RPI is down to 30. They have three Quad 1 wins (Ohio State on a neutral floor and at St. Mary's and Washington). I will get to the last two teams later, but I have them both squarely on the bubble. The Quad 2 home win against Creighton looks good, but the Neutral floor win against Texas gets worse by the day as the Longhorns play their way into serious jeopardy. If you look at the team sheet for Gonzaga, their results based metrics have them at #25, while the predictive metrics have them at #9. How much will the committee consider these predictive metrics is another question to add to the list.
When Gonzaga has been seeded highly as a 1 or 2, they have always had a top 10 RPI. I went back and found two recent versions of teams similar to this years team. In 2012, Gonzaga was 25-6 with an RPI of 25. They received a #7 seed that season. In 2014, Gonzaga was 28-6 with an RPI of 20. they received a #8 seed in 2014. And just ask St. Mary's how the committee typically views the West Coast Conference.
2. Who is the last #3 seed?
I have 11 teams separated at the top, but who is the #12 team on the seed list?
Top 11: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas, Michigan State, North Carolina, Purdue, Duke, Auburn, Tennessee and Cincinnati.
I see Wichita State, Texas Tech, West Virginia and Clemson as the 4 currently vying for that spot. Wichita State has a resume that lacks the high end wins with only three in Quad 1, but that number is 13 when adding in Quad 2. Texas Tech has 6 Quad 1 wins and is 10-8 against Quad 1 and 2. West Virginia has 7 Quad 1 wins and is 13-8 against Quad 1 and 2, but their RPI is 29 this morning. Clemson has a sterling RPI of 10 this morning, but they have only 4 Quad 1 wins and are 10-7 against Quads 1 and 2. Clemson's worst loss is to #49 NC State.
Hopefully one of these teams will separate themselves in the next 10 days.
3. What will the committee do with the "faders"?
Every year they say the entire resume is taken into consideration. Let's put that to the test this year with Oklahoma, Arizona State and Alabama.
Oklahoma is 3-10 in their last 13 games and now sits at 17-12 with an RPI still at #37. They still have a win over Kansas, @Wichita State and a sweep of TCU. They have no losses outside Quad 2. They seem safe for inclusion, but maybe their seed will take a slight hit.
Arizona State sits at 19-9 with an RPI of 42. They have lost 3 in a row and sit at 7-9 in the mediocre PAC-12. They have only 3 Quad 1 wins, but two of them are a neutral court win against Xavier and winning at Kansas. I am not sure there are two better wins out there.
Alabama is now 17-13 with an RPI down to 57 after losing their 4th game in a row. They have to go to Texas A&M to finish off the SEC regular season and if they lose that and in the SEC tournament, they will have 15 losses. They are 2-7 away, but did go 3-1 in neutral court games. They have wins over Auburn, Tennessee, Rhode Island and Texas A&M, but all at home. The bracket matrix has Alabama as a #9, but the more I look, they are closer to the bubble than that.
4. I am not hating on the West Coast Conference, but is St. Mary's safe?
Guess where teams from the West Coast conference with a 27-4 record, RPI of 38 and one quality win get seeded? If you answered the NIT, then you are correct. Some matrix contributors have them as high as a #6 seed. I am not sure what to make of them yet. They may survive the bubble due to the lack of quality at the bottom, but this resume is weak. In 2016, St. Mary's was 26-5 with an RPI of 38 and two wins over Gonzaga and went to the NIT. I might suggest St. Mary's win the West Coast tournament. It is just a gut feeling.
5. How do you separate the middle?
If my bracket goes completely wrong, it is because I will mess up the whole middle of the bracket. Does the committee side with RPI or quality wins or lack of bad losses or road record? How they sort out Creighton from USC from Arkansas from Florida State will be interesting. Virginia Tech has beaten Virginia, Duke, North Carolina and Clemson. Yet they are 21-9 with an RPI of 46. Closer look says that is dragged down by playing the worst of the worst in the non-conference schedule, which frankly is the next topic the RPI should consider tweaking. What is the difference between the teams ranked 250 to 350? There should be a cap on the negative impact those awful teams have on the RPI. That discussion is for another day.
Time to put together my first bracket prediction of the year.
Sunday, March 12, 2017
2017 NCAA Mens Basketball projected bracket
EAST
1) Villanova
16) North Carolina Central/Mount St. Mary's
Buffalo, NY
8) Dayton
9) Miami FL
4) UCLA
13) New Mexico State
Sacramento, CA
5) SMU
12) Nevada
6) Wisconsin
11) Middle Tennessee
Orlando, FL
3) Florida
14) Northern Kentucky
7) Maryland
10) Oklahoma State
Greenville, SC
2) Duke
15) Troy
MIDWEST
1) Kansas
16) New Orleans
Tulsa, OK
8) Virginia Tech
9) Wichita State
4) Purdue
13) Princeton
Milwaukee, WI
5) Virginia
12) UNC-Wilmington
6) Creighton
11) Rhode Island
Salt Lake City, UT
3) Oregon
14) Florida Gulf Coast
7) Arkansas
10) Michigan State
Orlando, FL
2) Florida State
15) Texas Southern
SOUTH
1) North Carolina
16) UC--Davis/South Dakota State
Greenville, SC
8) South Carolina
9) VCU
4) Butler
13) East Tennessee State
Milwaukee, WI
5) Iowa State
12) USC/ Wake Forest
6) Minnesota
11) Xavier
Tulsa, OK
3) Baylor
14) Iona
7) Michigan
10) Marquette
Indianapolis, IN
2) Kentucky
15) Kent State
WEST
1) Gonzaga
16) Jacksonville State
Salt Lake City, UT
8) Northwestern
9) Seton Hall
4) Notre Dame
13) Bucknell
Buffalo, NY
5) West Virginia
12) Vermont
6) Cincinnati
11) Kansas State/Providence
Indianapolis, IN
3) Louisville
14) Winthrop
7) St. Mary's
10) Vanderbilt
Sacramento, CA
2) Arizona
15) North Dakota
1) Villanova
16) North Carolina Central/Mount St. Mary's
Buffalo, NY
8) Dayton
9) Miami FL
4) UCLA
13) New Mexico State
Sacramento, CA
5) SMU
12) Nevada
6) Wisconsin
11) Middle Tennessee
Orlando, FL
3) Florida
14) Northern Kentucky
7) Maryland
10) Oklahoma State
Greenville, SC
2) Duke
15) Troy
MIDWEST
1) Kansas
16) New Orleans
Tulsa, OK
8) Virginia Tech
9) Wichita State
4) Purdue
13) Princeton
Milwaukee, WI
5) Virginia
12) UNC-Wilmington
6) Creighton
11) Rhode Island
Salt Lake City, UT
3) Oregon
14) Florida Gulf Coast
7) Arkansas
10) Michigan State
Orlando, FL
2) Florida State
15) Texas Southern
SOUTH
1) North Carolina
16) UC--Davis/South Dakota State
Greenville, SC
8) South Carolina
9) VCU
4) Butler
13) East Tennessee State
Milwaukee, WI
5) Iowa State
12) USC/ Wake Forest
6) Minnesota
11) Xavier
Tulsa, OK
3) Baylor
14) Iona
7) Michigan
10) Marquette
Indianapolis, IN
2) Kentucky
15) Kent State
WEST
1) Gonzaga
16) Jacksonville State
Salt Lake City, UT
8) Northwestern
9) Seton Hall
4) Notre Dame
13) Bucknell
Buffalo, NY
5) West Virginia
12) Vermont
6) Cincinnati
11) Kansas State/Providence
Indianapolis, IN
3) Louisville
14) Winthrop
7) St. Mary's
10) Vanderbilt
Sacramento, CA
2) Arizona
15) North Dakota
NCAA Mens Basketball 2017 Tournament projection FINAL
It is that time of year...March Madness is officially upon us. Today 68 schools and their fans will find out against who and where they will begin a potential 3 week magical journey.
The committee has the real bracket prepared, but many of us like to take a crack at guessing what might be revealed later today. Here is my best guess.
1's - Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, North Carolina
2's - Duke, Oregon, Arizona, Florida State
3's - Florida, Louisville, Baylor, Oregon
4's - Purdue, Notre Dame, Butler, UCLA
5's - SMU, Virginia, West Virginia, Iowa State
6's - Minnesota, Creighton, Cincinnati, Wisconsin
7's - St. Mary's, Arkansas, Michigan, Maryland
8's - Dayton, South Carolina, Virginia Tech, Northwestern
9's - Miami FL, VCU, Seton Hall, Wichita State
10's - Michigan State, Oklahoma State, Marquette, Vanderbilt
11's - Providence, Kansas State, Xavier, Rhode Island, Middle Tennessee
12's - Vermont, Nevada, UNC- Wilmington, USC, Wake Forest
13's - Bucknell, Princeton, New Mexico State, East Tennesse State
14's - Northern Kentucky, Iona, Winthrop, Florida Gulf Coast
15's - Texas Southern, Kent State, North Dakota, Troy
16's - North Carolina Central, UC-Davis, South Dakota State, Mount St. Mary's, Jacksonville State, New Orleans
The committee has the real bracket prepared, but many of us like to take a crack at guessing what might be revealed later today. Here is my best guess.
1's - Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, North Carolina
2's - Duke, Oregon, Arizona, Florida State
3's - Florida, Louisville, Baylor, Oregon
4's - Purdue, Notre Dame, Butler, UCLA
5's - SMU, Virginia, West Virginia, Iowa State
6's - Minnesota, Creighton, Cincinnati, Wisconsin
7's - St. Mary's, Arkansas, Michigan, Maryland
8's - Dayton, South Carolina, Virginia Tech, Northwestern
9's - Miami FL, VCU, Seton Hall, Wichita State
10's - Michigan State, Oklahoma State, Marquette, Vanderbilt
11's - Providence, Kansas State, Xavier, Rhode Island, Middle Tennessee
12's - Vermont, Nevada, UNC- Wilmington, USC, Wake Forest
13's - Bucknell, Princeton, New Mexico State, East Tennesse State
14's - Northern Kentucky, Iona, Winthrop, Florida Gulf Coast
15's - Texas Southern, Kent State, North Dakota, Troy
16's - North Carolina Central, UC-Davis, South Dakota State, Mount St. Mary's, Jacksonville State, New Orleans
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)