Monday, March 5, 2012

Breaking Down the Field - March 5, 2012

With one week to go, some teams are playing for seed, while other are trying to add to their resumes in hopes of making the field.  Here is a lock/bubble breakdown as I have it, with a little additional bubble analysis.

LOCKS (55)

ACC(4) - North Carolina, Duke, Florida State, Virginia
Big East(5) - Syracuse, Marquette, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame
Big 12(5) - Kansas, Missouri, Baylor, Kansas State, Iowa State
Big 10(6) - Ohio State, Michigan State, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Purdue
SEC(4) - Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Florida, Alabama
Mountain West(3) - UNLV, San Diego State, Wyoming
Atlantic 10(2) - Temple, St. Louis
Missouri Valley(2) - Creighton, Wichita State
West Coast(2) - Gonzaga, St. Mary's
Conference USA(1) - Memphis
Ohio Valley(1) - Murray State
Atlantic Sun(1) - Belmont
Big South (1) - UNC-Asheville
Colonial (1) - VCU
Metro Atlantic (1) - Loyola-Maryland
Southern (1) - Davidson
Other Automatic Bids (15) - PAC-12, WAC, Ivy League, Horizon, Summit, Mid-American, Sun Belt, Patriot, Big West, Big Sky, Northeast, Southland, America East, MEAC, SWAC

That leaves 13 bids.  Connecticut is probably safe, but beating DePaul on Tuesday would take any doubt I have away.  If the Huskies win, they would face West Virginia in the 2nd round.  I also believe the Mountaineers are safe, but again, an extra win never hurts.  Cincinnati finally has a palatable RPI, but the non-conference schedule does not go away.  They have to wait two days for a probable match-up with Georgetown.  A win over the Hoyas will for sure do it, although I think they are fine as well.

That leaves 10 bids, with a few teams closer to those bids than others. 

Southern Mississippi (22-7, RPI 17) is a bit of a lightning rod, but with 3 Top 50 wins and 9 Top 100 wins, the Golden Eagles are likely part of the field.  They also own a road win against Colorado State and home wins against South Florida and Mississippi, all teams on the bubble.  That said, beating Rice/East Carolina and avoiding a 4th 100+ loss would remove any doubt.

Colorado State (18-10, RPI 22) is the epitome of the "Homecourt Hero", but when three of those are against UNLV, New Mexico and San Diego State, you can't argue with some of the quality.  The Rams are 8-9 against the RPI top 100 and have just one bad loss.  My research indicated 6 road/neutral wins was suggested, so a win over TCU would take care of that and likely salt away a bid.

California (23-8, RPI 37) is in a bit of a precarious position.  The loss at Stanford denied the Golden Bears a share of the PAC-12 title, so a loss in the PAC-12 tournament would leave Cal without either a regular-season or post-season title in a likely max 2-bid league.  While Cal sits with 2 Top 50 wins today, they have 0 Top 49 wins.  If Oregon falls one spot, that number changes.  The 7 top 100 wins stack up well with some of the others, but the lack of a big win could spell doom come Sunday if the Golden Bears need an at-large berth.

BYU (23-8, RPI 44) is sitting and waiting and hoping they are not forgotten.  They have 3 Top 50 wins, including their one big win at home vs Gonzaga.  The other two are Nevada(46) and Oregon(50) and BYU sits at 5-6 vs the Top 100, so the resume isn't sparkling.  The worry for BYU should be a shrinking bubble and wins by their fellow bubble partners.

Iona (25-7, RPI 43) needs to overcome the stigma of the Metro Atlantic Conference, a conference that has never received multiple bids.  The Gaels have just one top 50 win over Nevada(46) and 5 Top 100 wins.  In their defense, it only took them 2 games to have 1 top 50 win, while Northwestern has had 11 chances, South Florida 10, Mississippi and Washington 7 and they each only have 1 Top 50 win as well.  The 5 Top 100 wins currently exceeds that of Texas(4), Washington(4) and Miami(3) and matches that of Creighton, Iowa State, BYU, Northwestern and Oregon.  I guess what I am saying, is they should not automatically be dismissed.

Mississippi State (21-10, RPI 63) hopes a 2-game winning streak to finish the season will erase the lingering doubts precipitated by a 5-game losing streak.  The RPI is shaky, but the Rebels have 3 top 50 wins and are 8-8 vs the Top 100.  They have a good non-conference win against West Virginia and a key road win at Vandy.  Despite that, a loss to Georgia in the SEC first round will send the RPI lower and put them in great danger.

Tennessee (17-13, RPI 75) has won 8 of 9 and owns victories over Vanderbilt, Connecticut and a sweep of Florida.  The RPI is still too low, so the Vols need to do some damage in the SEC tournament.  Potential games against Mississippi and then either Vanderbilt or Mississippi State provide UT with the opportunities.  I think two wins gets it done for the Vols.

Mississippi (18-12, RPI 58) is the forgotten team in the SEC.  They have the same problem as others, with a 1-6 record vs the RPI top 50, but their 7 top 100 wins exceed many of their counterparts.  They own victories over Alabama, as well as fellow bubble squads Mississippi State and Miami.  They start with Auburn in the SEC tournament, with Tennessee waiting.  Winning the first two will get them more in the discussion, but a run to the SEC Championship game is probably needed.

South Florida (18-12, RPI 45) hopes a 12-6 Big East record is at least in the minds of the committee.  Wins over Seton Hall, Cincinnati and at Louisville give them quality wins, but is there enough?  The 6 seed in the Big East tournament does not initially help, as a game vs Rutgers/Villanova is only a losing proposition.  The Bulls might need a quarterfinal win over Notre Dame depending on what happens around them.

Seton Hall (19-11, RPI 60) just lost to DePaul by 28.  They have a respectable 4 top 50 wins, including one over Georgetown and are 7-8 vs the Top 100.  They are just 4-9 in their last 13, and while the committee does not look at that, they are human.  Providence is first up on Tuesday, followed by an opportunity to play their way in against Louisville.  Based upon Saturday, the Pirates will not even be playing by Wednesday.

Xavier (19-11, RPI 57) has had a tale of two seasons.  A hot start included wins over Purdue, Cincinnati and at Vanderbilt.  Then the brawl came and the rest of the season has been average at best.  The committee will give some consideration to their 0-3 record during the suspensions, but how much nobody knows.  A win over Dayton/George Washington should be enough, but a loss in the quarterfinal might send them to the NIT.

Northwestern (18-12, RPI 48) is a committee nightmare.  A top SOS, no bad losses, but only one big win at home vs Michigan State.  With just 5 RPI top 100 wins, the Wildcats are on shaky ground.  They get Minnesota first on Thursday, which would add a Top 100 win.  They would then get Michigan, who they played tough in two losses earlier in the year.  They need two wins to feel safe with everything else going on around them.

Texas (19-12, RPI 52) has 3 RPI top 50 wins (Temple, Iowa State and Kansas State0 but only 4 top 100 wins, putting them on shaky footing despite a strong SOS.  They get Iowa State and then likely Missouri, a chance to get to 6 top 100 wins if they can get to the Big 12 Final.

Miami (18-11, RPI 54) has two big wins (at Duke, vs Florida State), but just 3 total against the Top 100.  Throw in a 5-8 Road/Neutral record and things don't look good for the Hurricanes.  They start with Georgia Tech and have Florida State waiting in Round 2.  Duke is the Round 3 possibility.  I think the Hurricanes need to run all the way to the ACC final to solidify a bid.

Washington (21-9, RPI 53) has the PAC-12 regular season title and that's about it.  Currently 1 Top 50 win (Oregon(50)) and 4 Top 100 wins lends to a pretty weak at-large resume.  A semifinal win over Arizona would add one more good win, but my suggestion for all PAC-12 teams would be to win the tournament.  That includes Oregon (22-8, RPI 50), who can add 2 top 100 wins if it makes the final, but would have to be chosen over the regular season champion to get a berth.

St. Joseph's (19-12, RPI 55) has wins over Creighton, Temple and Drexel amongst its 6 top 100 wins.  A win over St. Bonaventure may get them another one, but I think they need to also beat Temple in the A-10 semis to play their way into the field.

If NC State beats Virginia and North Carolina, they re-enter the discussion.  Dayton needs a run to the A-10 finals to gain any consideration.  Drexel is likely done, especially in comparisons to Iona and Oral Roberts.

NCAA Field of 68 - March 5, 2012 Edition

  • Kentucky overall #1, followed by Syracuse, Kansas and North Carolina
  • I have done my best to balance the Top 4 in each region and consider distance.  This is not easy, as the West can not always get the 4th team on a line.
  • Last 5 In - BYU, Xavier, Northwestern, Iona, and Tennessee
  • Next 6 (no order) - Texas, Miami, Seton Hall, Oregon, St. Joseph's, Mississippi
  • One week to go and to say the bottom of the bracket is unsettled is an understatment.  First, prohibitive favorites Iona and Middle Tennessee lost in their conference tournaments.  Second, the bubble teams continue to do little to separate themsleves, leading to an interesting conference tournament week.  I have left Iona in as of today, but with other teams having the chance to surpass them this week, their stay might be short-lived.
  • One First Four game moved to 11 line to accomodate travel, Northwestern and BYU moved to 12 line, but ahead of these teams in my S-curve
Midwest Regional
Omaha
(1)  Kansas (16) Texas-Arlington
(8)  St. Mary's vs (9) Virginia
Albuquerque
(5)  Louisville vs (12) Washington
(4)  Wisconsin vs (13)  Oral Roberts
Columbus
(6)  Florida vs (11) California
(3)  Marquette vs (14)  Davidson
Columbus
(7)  Creighton vs (10)  Colorado State
(2)  Michigan State vs (15)  Bucknell

South Regional
Louisville
(1)  Kentucky vs (16)  Mississippi Valley State/UNC-Asheville
(8)  Memphis vs (9)  Connecticut
Portland
(5)  UNLV vs (12) Northwestern
(4)  Temple vs (13)  Long Beach State
Nashville
(6)  Notre Dame vs (11)  Mississippi State
(3)  Michigan vs (14)  Akron
Greensboro
(7)  Kansas State vs (10) Harvard
(2)  Duke vs (15) Fairfield

West Regional
Greensboro
(1)  North Carolina vs (16)  Stony Brook/Savannah State
(8)  Alabama vs (9)  St. Louis
Nashville
(5)  Wichita State vs (12)  Iona/Tennessee
(4)  Georgetown vs (13)  VCU
Albuquerque
(6)  San Diego State vs (11)  Southern Miss
(3)  Baylor vs (14)  Denver
Pittsburgh
(7)  Gonzaga  vs (10)  Cincinnati
(2)  Ohio State vs (15)  Detroit

East Regional
Pittsburgh
(1)  Syracuse vs (16)  Long Island
(8)  Iowa State vs (9)  Purdue
Portland
(5)  Florida State vs (12)  BYU
(4)  Vanderbilt vs (13)  Nevada
Louisville
(6)  Murray State vs (11)  South Florida/Xavier
(3)  Indiana vs (14)  Belmont
Omaha
(7)  New Mexico vs (10)  West Virginia
(2)  Missouri vs (15)  Montana

Sunday, March 4, 2012

NCAA Field of 68 - March 4, 2012 Edition

  • Kentucky overall #1, followed by Syracuse, North Carolina and Kansas
  • I have done my best to balance the Top 4 in each region and consider distance.  This is not easy, as the West can not always get the 4th team on a line.
  • Last 5 In - BYU, Xavier, Northwestern, Miami, and Tennessee
  • Next 5 - Texas, Seton Hall, Oregon, St. Joseph's, Arizona
  • Interesting bubble race between Texas, Northwestern, Miami, Xavier, and South Florida.  All teams with similar RPI's, and similarly poor Top 50 and Top 100 records.  None can afford a first round exit in their conference tourney.  I added Tennessee today, at least they are beating people (although they need to win at least one more, but so does everyone I just mentioned).  These teams are also all huge Creighton fans today.
  • One First Four game moved to 11 line to accomodate travel, South Florida and BYU moved to 12 line, but ahead of these teams in my S-curve
West Regional
Omaha
(1)  Kansas (16) Texas-Arlington
(8)  Purdue vs (9) California
Portland
(5)  UNLV vs (12) South Florida
(4)  Florida vs (13)  Long Beach State
Louisville
(6)  Murray State vs (11) Xavier/Miami
(3)  Marquette vs (14)  Davidson
Columbus
(7)  Gonzaga vs (10)  Harvard
(2)  Michigan State vs (15)  Bucknell

Midwest Regional
Louisville
(1)  Kentucky vs (16)  Mississippi Valley State/UNC-Asheville
(8)  Kansas State vs (9)  Connecticut
Portland
(5)  Florida State vs (12) Iona
(4)  Temple vs (13)  Middle Tennessee
Columbus
(6)  Louisville vs (11)  Southern Miss
(3)  Indiana vs (14)  Belmont
Omaha
(7)  New Mexico vs (10) Cincinnati
(2)  Missouri vs (15) Montana

South Regional
Greensboro
(1)  North Carolina vs (16)  Stony Brook/Savannah State
(8)  Alabama vs (9)  St. Mary's
Nashville
(5)  Wichita State vs (12)  Northwestern/Tennessee
(4)  Georgetown vs (13)  VCU
Albuquerque
(6)  San Diego State vs (11)  St. Louis
(3)  Baylor vs (14)  Nevada
Louisville
(7)  Memphis  vs (10)  West Virginia
(2)  Ohio State vs (15)  Detroit

East Regional
Pittsburgh
(1)  Syracuse vs (16)  Long Island
(8)  Iowa State vs (9)  Virginia
Albuquerque
(5)  Vanderbilt vs (12)  BYU
(4)  Wisconsin vs (13)  Washington
Nashville
(6)  Notre Dame vs (11)  Mississippi State
(3)  Michigan vs (14)  Oral Roberts
Greensboro
(7)  Creighton vs (10)  Colorado State
(2)  Duke vs (15)  Akron

Friday, March 2, 2012

Bid Stealers and Other Nuggets

Conference tournament play is underway and the first bids will be awarded tomorrow.  We have spent the past few months/weeks playing ping pong with the final at-large teams in the field and analyzing the bubble ad nauseum.  This is the week where those bubble teams start to worry that the bid stealers will be out in full force and lower the number of spots available for the final at-large teams.  Are there really that many bid-stealers out there this year?  Is this the year the bubble remains intact?  Here are the possibilities for bubble shrinkage.
  • Ohio Valley Conference - Murray State will be in the Field of 68 even if they lose in the OVC Tourney.  They deserve it this year and are simply playing for seed.  All bubble teams are huge Racer fans today and tomorrow.
  • Missouri Valley Conference - Wichita State and Creighton have locked themselves into the field.  That leaves some danger for a bid stealer, a concept the Missouri Valley has been no stranger to over the years.  Watch out for Evansville, Northern Iowa, Illinois State and Missouri State (does anyone remember when they were Southwest Missouri State??).
  • Conference USA - Memphis and Southern Miss have arguably inflated RPI's, but both appear safe as Selection Sunday approaches.  Would it be a surprise if UCF, Tulsa, Marshall or even UAB won the C-USA Tourney over these two?  Not at all.  The committee says they award bids to teams and not leagues, so 3 from this desperately mediocre conference is not out of the question, especially if the two so-called locks make at least the semis.
  • West Coast Conference - This one teeters on how safe BYU really is, if at all.  This is one where if Loyola Marymount or less likely San Francisco shocked the conference and took the automatic bid, I would guess BYU should start looking into hosting NIT games.
  • Mountain West Conference - I am starting to get into longshots for bid stealing now.  This would require both a good performance from Colorado State, but ultimately Wyoming or TCU would have to win the tournament.  Plus UNLV plays this one at home, so are any of these teams really going to get through a UNLV/New Mexico/San Diego State gauntlet?  This is really only a bid stealer if you feel Colorado State is not in.
  • Ivy League - Could Harvard make it with 5 losses?  They have a pretty clean profile, including more Top 100 wins than usual.  They would be in the discussion at a minimum.
  • Atlantic 10 - Conventional wisdom says at least 3 teams will get in from the A-10, but if a school other than Temple or St. Louis wins the tourney, that will be almost a certainty.
  • Sun Belt and Colonial - Middle Tennesse, Drexel and VCU all have had very good seasons and currently sit at 5 or 6 losses.  All three lack the number of Top 50 and 100 wins typical of an at-large team.  Some will argue their inclusion over a 13 loss UConn.  Unless the committee changes their philosophy, I suggest all 3 win their Conference Tourney (and I know only two can).
A few other thoughts.
  • Is Tennessee this years USC, a team not on the radar until the last week?  If Tennessee beats Vanderbilt at home this weekend and follows up with another quality win in the SEC tournament, their profile will be worth considering.  They currently sit at 80 in the RPI, but that number would be sure to rise in this scenario, just how far I don't know.  Vandy would be a 4th Top 50 win, joining two over Florida and one over Connecticut.  The SEC tournament win would need to be at least a top 100 win, either say one of the Mississippi schools or even better, Alabama.  This all goes out the window with a loss to Vandy, but keep an eye on this one.
  • The Big Ten is not guaranteed a 1-seed.  I keep hearing the committee will reward the #1 conference with a 1-seed.  The committee looks at teams, not conferences.  If Kansas and either Duke or North Carolina wins out, I think the Big Ten will be off the 1-line.  My opinion, but there is nothing saying a team from the #1 RPI conference has to be a 1 seed.  Its #1 because of its depth and they just happened to beat each other up this year.

2011-12 NCAA Tournament Tracker (in progress)

Here is one of many tools I will use to track the world of College Basketball in their four month pursuit of the Field of 68.  This one is simple.  I have listed out roughly 100 teams that right now I see having a shot at an at-large berth or having a resume that would consider them a quality win.  This schedule will list out the wins against teams that are also on this schedule, which should equate closely to Top 100 RPI wins.  It is simply a way to assess quality wins.  I will also note whether the game was at home (H), away (A) or neutral (N).  The tracker will be flexible with additions and subtractions for surprise over and under achievers.  Please note:  The second record shown is only against teams on this list.

Remaining This Week/Next Week (26)
Friday(1):  Akron at Kent State
Saturday(18):  West Virginia at South Florida, St. Louis at Duquesne, Pittsburgh at Connecticut, Oklahoma State at Kansas State, Washington at UCLA, St. Bonaventure at LaSalle, Georgetown at Marquette, Cincinnati at Villanova, Southern Miss at Marshall, Northwestern at Iowa, Colorado at Oregon State, Alabama at Mississippi, Louisville at Syracuse, Arkansas at Mississippi State, North Carolina at Duke, Baylor at Iowa State, Texas at Kansas, Wyoming at UNLV
Sunday(7):  Kentucky at Florida, Illinois at Wisconsin, Virginia at Maryland, Ohio State at Michigan State, California at Stanford, Purdue at Indiana, NC State at Virginia Tech
Plus Conference Tourney action this week and next week

ACC (8)
North Carolina (26-4, 13-4) - Michigan State(N), Wisconsin(H), Long Beach State(H), Texas(H), Miami, FL(H), Virginia Tech(A), NC State(H), Maryland(A), Virginia(H), Miami, FL(A), NC State(A), Virginia(A), Maryland(H)
Duke (26-4, 15-4) - Belmont(H), Michigan State(N), Davidson(H), Michigan(N), Kansas(N), Washington(N), Colorado State(H), Virginia(H), Maryland(A), Virginia Tech(A), North Carolina(A), Maryland(H), NC State(H), Florida State(A), Virginia Tech(H)
Virginia (21-8, 9-6) - Michigan(H), Drexel(N), George Mason(H), Oregon(A), LSU(A), Miami, FL(H), NC State(A), Maryland (H), Virginia Tech(A)
Florida State (20-9, 11-6) - Central Florida(H), Massachusetts(N), Virginia Tech(A), North Carolina(H), Maryland(H), Duke(A), Virginia(H), Miami, FL(H), Virginia Tech(H), NC State(A), Virginia(A)

Virginia Tech (15-15, 4-12) - Oklahoma State(N), St. Bonaventure(H), Oklahoma State(A), Virginia(A)
North Carolina State (19-11, 5-9) - Texas(N), St. Bonaventure(A), Maryland(H), Miami, FL(A), Miami, FL(H)
Maryland (16-13, 4-12) - Notre Dame(H), Colorado(A), Virginia Tech(H), Miami, FL(H)

Miami (17-11, 5-11) - Massachusetts(H), Maryland(H), Duke(A), Virginia Tech(H), Florida State(H)

Big 12 (8)
Baylor (25-5, 14-5) - San Diego State(H), Northwestern(A), BYU(A), St. Mary's(N), West Virginia(N), Mississippi State(N), Kansas State(A), Oklahoma State(H), Oklahoma(A), Texas(H), Oklahoma State(A), Iowa State(H), Texas(A), Oklahoma(H)

Missouri (26-4, 14-4) - Notre Dame (N), California(N), Villanova(N), Illinois(H), Oklahoma(H), Iowa State(A), Texas(H), Baylor(A), Texas(A), Kansas(H), Oklahoma(A), Baylor(H), Oklahoma State(H), Iowa State(H)
Kansas (25-5, 16-5) - Georgetown(N), UCLA(N), Long Beach State(H), South Florida(H), Ohio State(H), Kansas State(H), Oklahoma(A), Iowa State(H), Baylor(H), Texas(A), Oklahoma(H), Baylor(A), Oklahoma State(H), Kansas State(A), Missouri(H), Oklahoma State(A)
Texas (19-11, 7-11) - UCLA(A), Temple(H), Oklahoma State(H), Iowa State(H), Kansas State(H), Oklahoma(A), Oklahoma(H)
Kansas State (20-9, 8-9) - Virginia Tech(A), Alabama(H), Long Beach State(N), Missouri(H), Texas(H), Oklahoma State(H), Baylor(A), Missouri(A)

Oklahoma (14-15, 5-13) - Oral Roberts(H), Arkansas(H), Kansas State(H), Kansas State(A), Oklahoma State(H)
Iowa State (21-9, 8-8) - Texas(H), Iowa(H), Oklahoma State(H), Kansas(H), Kansas State(H), Oklahoma(A), Oklahoma(H), Kansas State(A)
Oklahoma State (14-16, 5-15) - Missouri State(A), Oklahoma(H), Missouri(H), Iowa State(H), Texas(H)

Big East (12)
Syracuse (29-1, 17-1) - Stanford(N), Virginia Tech(N), Florida(H), Bucknell(H), Marshall(H), NC State(A), Seton Hall(H), Marquette(H), Villanova(A), Pittsburgh(H), Cincinnati(A), West Virginia(H), Georgetown(H), Connecticut(H), Louisville(A), South Florida(H), Connecticut(A)
Connecticut (17-12, 9-9) - Florida State(N), Wagner(H), Arkansas(H), Harvard(H), West Virginia(H), South Florida(A), Notre Dame(A), Seton Hall(H), Villanova(A)
Marquette (24-6, 12-6) - Mississippi(N), Wisconsin(A), Washington(N), Villanova(H), Pittsburgh(H), Louisville(H), South Florida(H), Villanova(A), Seton Hall(H), Cincinnati(H), Connecticut(A), West Virginia(A)

Georgetown (22-6, 9-6) - Memphis(N), Alabama(A), Memphis(H), Louisville(A), Marquette(H), Connecticut(H), South Florida(H), Villanova(H), Notre Dame(H)
West Virginia (18-12, 10-11) - Akron(H), Oral Roberts(H), Kansas State(A), Miami,FL(H), Missouri State(N), Villanova(H), Georgetown(H), Marshall(H), Cincinnati(H), Pittsburgh(A)
Seton Hall (19-10, 7-9) - VCU(H), St. Joseph's(A), Dayton(A), West Virginia(H), Connecticut(H), Pittsburgh(H), Georgetown(H)

Louisville (22-8, 10-7) - Long Beach State(H), Vanderbilt(H), Ohio(H), Memphis(H), Pittsburgh(A), Villanova(H), Seton Hall(A), Connecticut(H), West Virginia(A), Pittsburgh(H)
Cincinnati (21-9, 9-6) - Oklahoma(H), Pittsburgh(A), Notre Dame(H), Georgetown(A), Villanova(H), Connecticut(A), Seton Hall(H), Louisville(H), Marquette(H)
Notre Dame (20-10, 10-7) - South Florida(H), Pittsburgh(H), Louisville(A), Syracuse(H), Seton Hall(A), Connecticut(A), Marquette(H), West Virginia(A), Villanova(A), West Virginia(H)
Pittsburgh (16-14, 6-12) - Oklahoma State(N), Duquesne(N), LaSalle(H), Georgetown(H), West Virginia(A), Villanova(H)

Villanova (12-17, 2-16) - LaSalle(H), Seton Hall(H)
South Florida (19-11, 8-8) - Cleveland State(H), Seton Hall(H), Villanova(A), Pittsburgh(H), Villanova(H), Pittsburgh(A), Cincinnati(H), Louisville(A)

Big Ten (10)
Ohio State (24-6, 11-6) - Florida(H), Duke(H), Northwestern(H), Iowa(A), Indiana(H), Michigan(H), Wisconsin(A), Purdue(H), Minnesota(A), Illinois(H), Northwestern(A)
Michigan State (24-6, 12-6) - Florida State(H), Gonzaga(A), Indiana(H), Wisconsin(A), Iowa(H), Purdue(H), Minnesota(H), Michigan(H), Ohio State(A), Wisconsin(H), Purdue(A), Minnesota(A)

Indiana (23-7, 11-6) - NC State(A), Kentucky(H), Notre Dame(A), Ohio State(H), Michigan(H), Iowa(H), Purdue(A), Illinois(H), Northwestern(H), Minnesota(A), Michigan State(H)
llinois (17-13, 8-11) - Maryland(A), Gonzaga(H), St. Bonaventure(H), Minnesota(H), Northwestern(A), Ohio State(H), Michigan State(H), Iowa(H)
Wisconsin (22-8, 9-8) - BYU(N), UNLV(H), Purdue(A), Northwestern(H), Illinois(A), Indiana(H), Minnesota(A), Ohio State(A), Minnesota(H)
Purdue (20-10, 11-8) - Iona(N), Temple(N), MiamiFL(H), Illinois(H), Iowa(A), Minnesota(A), Iowa(H), Northwestern(A), Northwestern(H), Illinois(A), Michigan(A)

Michigan (22-8, 13-8) - Memphis(N), UCLA(N), Iowa State(H), Minnesota(H), Wisconsin(H), Northwestern(H), Michigan State(H), Purdue(A), Indiana(H), Illinois(H), Ohio State(H), Northwestern(A), Illinois(A)
Northwestern (17-12, 6-12) - LSU(H), Seton Hall(A), Michigan State(H), Illinois(A), Iowa(H), Minnesota(H)
Minnesota (17-13, 6-13) - South Dakota State(H), Bucknell(H), Virginia Tech(H), Indiana(A), Northwestern(H), Illinois(H)

Iowa (16-14, 6-10) - Wisconsin(A), Minnesota(A), Michigan(H), Minnesota(H), Indiana(H), Wisconsin(H)

SEC (8)
Kentucky (29-1, 11-1) - Kansas(N), North Carolina(H), Louisville(H), Arkansas(H), Alabama(H), LSU(A), Florida(H), Vanderbilt(A), Mississippi(H), Mississippi State(A), Vanderbilt(H)
Vanderbilt (21-9, 11-8) - Oregon(H), NC State(N), Bucknell(H), Davidson(A), Oregon State(N), Marquette(A), Alabama(A), Middle Tennessee(H), LSU(H), Mississippi(A), Florida(H)
Florida (22-8, 8-4) - Arizona(H), Florida State(H), LSU(H), Mississippi(A), Mississippi State(H), Vanderbilt(H), Alabama(A), Arkansas(A)
Alabama (20-9, 10-8) - Maryland(N), Wichita State(N), Purdue(N), VCU(H), Oklahoma State(H), LSU(H), Arkansas(H), Mississippi(H), Arkansas(A), Mississippi State(H)
Mississippi State (20-10, 6-8) - Arizona(N), West Virginia(H), Alabama(H), Vanderbilt(A), LSU(H), Mississippi(H)
Mississippi (17-12, 5-10) - MiamiFL(H), Arkansas(H), Mississippi State(H), LSU(H), Arkansas(A)

LSU (17-12, 5-9) - Marquette(H), Mississippi(H), Arkansas(H), Alabama(H), Mississippi State(H)
Arkansas (18-12, 5-9) - Charlotte(H), Mississippi State(H), LSU(H), Michigan(H), Vanderbilt(H)

PAC-12 (8)
California (23-7, 10-6) - Denver(H), Weber State(H), UCLA(H), Oregon(A), Colorado(H), Washington(A), Stanford(H), UCLA(A), Oregon(H), Oregon State(H)
Stanford (19-10, 8-7) - Oklahoma State(N), NC State(H), Colorado State(H), UCLA(H), Oregon State(A), Colorado(H), Oregon State(H), Colorado(A)
Arizona (21-9, 7-9) - New Mexico State(A), Duquesne(H), Oregon State(H), California(A), Stanford(A), Colorado(H), UCLA(H)

Washington (21-8, 7-8) - Oregon State(H), Oregon(H), Stanford(H), Arizona(A), UCLA(H), Oregon State(A), Arizona(H)
Oregon (21-8, 7-8) - Stanford(H), Arizona(A), UCLA(H), Washington(H), Stanford(A), Oregon State(A), Colorado(H)

UCLA (17-13, 3-11) - Arizona(H), Colorado(H), Stanford(H)
Colorado (19-10, 5-10) - Washington(H), Arizona(H), Oregon State(H), Oregon(H), California(H)
Oregon State (16-13, 4-9) - Texas(N), California(H), UCLA(H), Oregon(A)


Atlantic 10 (9)
Xavier (18-11, 7-10) - Vanderbilt(A), Purdue(H), Cincinnati(H), St. Bonaventure(H), Duquesne(H), St. Joseph's(H), Dayton(H)
Temple (23-6, 13-4) - Wichita State(N), Buffalo(H), Villanova(H), Duke(H), St. Louis(A), LaSalle(H), Maryland(H), St. Joseph's(H), Xavier(H), St. Bonaventure(A), Duquesne(H), LaSalle(A), Massachusetts(H)
St. Louis (23-6, 10-4) - Washington(H), Villanova(N), Oklahoma(N), Xavier(A), Duquesne(H), St. Bonaventure(H), Dayton(H), St. Joseph's(A), LaSalle(A)
Dayton (18-11, 9-8) - Minnesota(N), Alabama(H), Mississippi(H), St. Louis(H), LaSalle(H), Temple(A), Xavier(H), Duquesne(A), Massachusetts(H)

St. Joseph's (19-12, 8-8) - Creighton(H), Drexel(H), Villanova(H), Duquesne(A), Dayton(H), LaSalle(H), Massachusetts(H), Temple(H)
Massachusetts (19-10, 5-8) - Davidson(H), St. Joseph's(H), St. Louis(H), St. Bonaventure(H), Xavier(H)
LaSalle (19-11, 5-7) - Bucknell(H), Xavier(H), Duquesne(A), Massachusetts(H), Massachusetts(A)
St. Bonaventure (17-10, 4-9) - Buffalo(A), Dayton(H), Duquesne(H), St. Joseph's(H)

Duquesne (16-13, 5-9) - Akron(N), Massachusetts(H), Dayton(A), St. Bonaventure(H), George Mason(A)

Colonial (3)
VCU (25-6, 4-4) - Akron(A), South Florida(H), Northern Iowa(H), George Mason(H)
George Mason (23-8, 2-4) - Bucknell(H), VCU(H)

Drexel (25-5, 3-2) - VCU(H), George Mason(H), Cleveland State(A)

Conference USA (4)
Memphis (22-8, 7-7) - Belmont(H), Miami, FL(A), Southern Miss(H), Marshall(H), Xavier(H), Marshall(A), Central Florida(H)
Marshall (17-12, 4-9) - Cincinnati(A), Iona(H), Belmont(H), Central Florida(H)
Central Florida (20-9, 3-6) - Connecticut(N), Memphis(H), Marshall(H)

Southern Miss (24-6, 9-3) - New Mexico State(H), New Mexico State(A), South Florida(H), Colorado State(A), Mississippi(H), Marshall(H), Central Florida(A), Memphis(H), Central Florida(H)

WCC (3)
Gonzaga (24-5, 6-4) - Notre Dame(H), Oral Roberts(H), Arizona(H), Xavier(A), St. Mary's(H), BYU(H)
St. Mary's (25-5, 6-4) - Northern Iowa(H), Weber State(H), Missouri State(N), BYU(H), Gonzaga(H), BYU(A)

BYU (24-7, 6-5) - Oregon(H), Buffalo(H), Nevada(N), Weber State(H), Virginia Tech(A), Gonzaga(H)

Missouri Valley (4)
Creighton (25-5, 7-4) - San Diego State(A), Iowa(H), Northwestern(H), Wichita State(A), Northern Iowa(H), Missouri State(A), Long Beach State(H)
Northern Iowa (19-12, 5-7) - Iowa(H), Iowa State(A), Colorado State(H), Missouri State(H), Creighton(H)

Wichita State (26-4, 8-3) - Colorado(A), UNLV(H), Northern Iowa(A), Missouri State(A), Northern Iowa(H), Creighton(A), Missouri State(H), Davidson(A)
Missouri State (16-15, 3-9) - Nevada(A), Creighton(A), Northern Iowa(H)

Mountain West (5)
UNLV (24-7, 7-6) - North Carolina(N), Nevada(H), Illinois(A), California(H), New Mexico(H), Colorado State(H), San Diego State(H)
San Diego State (23-6, 8-5) - Long Beach State(H), Arizona(A), California(H), UNLV(H), New Mexico(A), Wyoming(A), Wyoming(H), Colorado State(H)

New Mexico (23-6, 9-4) - Missouri State(H), Oklahoma State(A), New Mexico State(A), St. Louis(H), Wyoming(A), Colorado State(H), Wyoming(H), San Diego State(A), UNLV(H)
Colorado State (18-10, 6-8) - Colorado(H), Denver(H), San Diego State(H), Wyoming(H), New Mexico(H), UNLV(H)
Wyoming (20-9, 3-5) - Colorado State(H), Colorado(A), UNLV(H)

MAC (4)
Akron (20-10, 4-9) - Mississippi State(A), Marshall(A), Ohio(H), Kent State(H)
Kent State (20-9, 3-4) - West Virginia(A), Buffalo(H), Ohio(H)

Ohio (23-7, 6-3) - Marshall(A), Northern Iowa(A), Buffalo(H), Kent State(H), Buffalo(A), Akron(H)
Buffalo (18-9, 4-6) - Dayton(A), Akron(H), Kent State(H), Akron(A)

Sun Belt (2)
Middle Tennesee (25-5, 4-3) - UCLA(A), Akron(H), Belmont(H), Mississippi(H)
Denver (21-8, 4-3) - St. Mary's(H), Southern Miss(H), Wyoming(H), Middle Tennessee(H)

WAC (2)
Nevada (24-5, 3-4) - Washington(H), New Mexico State(A), New Mexico State(H)
New Mexico State (22-9, 1-6) - New Mexico(A)

Summit (2)
Oral Roberts (26-5, 4-4) - Missouri State(H), South Dakota State(H), Xavier(A), Akron(H)
South Dakota State (24-7, 2-2) - Washington(A), Oral Roberts(H)

Other Quality Teams (10)
Harvard (24-4, 3-1) - Florida State(N), Central Florida(N), St. Joseph's(H)

Murray State (28-1, 4-0) - Dayton(H), Memphis(A), Southern Miss(H), St. Mary's(H)
Iona (24-6, 4-2) - Maryland(N), St. Joseph's(A), Denver(A), Nevada(H)
Long Beach State (22-7, 2-6) - Pittsburgh(A), Xavier(N)
Belmont (24-7, 2-4) - Middle Tennessee(A), Marshall(H)
Weber State (23-5, 0-3)
Wagner (25-5, 1-1) - Pittsburgh(A)
Davidson (22-7, 1-4) - Kansas(A)
Bucknell (23-8, 0-5) -
Cleveland State (22-9, 4-2) - Vanderbilt(A), St. Bonaventure(H), Kent State(A), Akron(H)

Thursday, March 1, 2012

NCAA Field of 68 - March 1, 2012 Edition

  • Kentucky overall #1, followed by Syracuse, Duke and Kansas
  • I have done my best to balance the Top 4 in each region and consider distance.  This is not easy, as the West can not always get the 4th team on a line.
  • Last 4 In - BYU, Texas, Northwestern, Xavier
  • Next 6 - Whoever nets quality wins in the next 10 days (see South Florida, Cincinnati and Colorado State for examples)
  • One First Four game moved to 11 line to accomodate travel, South Florida and Seton Hall moved to 12 line, but ahead of these teams in my S-curve
  • I am now accomodating 10 Big East teams which I did not see coming.
  • I decided to go into the prognostication business and have moved VCU in my field, but as Colonial Tourney champ over Drexel.  Just trying to liven the bottom of the bracket up
West Regional
Omaha
(1)  Kansas (16) Texas-Arlington
(8)  New Mexico vs (9) California
Albuquerque
(5)  Florida vs (12) Seton Hall
(4)  Wichita State vs (13)  Middle Tennessee
Louisville
(6)  Florida State vs (11) BYU/Northwestern
(3)  Marquette vs (14)  Davidson
Columbus
(7)  Kansas State vs (10)  St. Louis
(2)  Michigan State vs (15)  Valparaiso

Midwest Regional
Louisville
(1)  Kentucky vs (16)  Mississippi Valley State/UNC-Asheville
(8)  Memphis vs (9)  St. Mary's
Portland
(5)  Temple vs (12) South Florida
(4)  Wisconsin vs (13)  Washington
Albuquerque
(6)  San Diego State vs (11)  West Virginia
(3)  Baylor vs (14)  Nevada
Pittsburgh
(7)  Notre Dame vs (10) Harvard
(2)  Ohio State vs (15) Bucknell

South Regional
Greensboro
(1)  Duke vs (16)  Long Island
(8)  Alabama vs (9)  Southern Miss
Nashville
(5)  Louisville vs (12)  Texas/Xavier
(4)  Michigan vs (13)  VCU
Columbus
(6)  Gonzaga vs (11)  Colorado State
(3)  Georgetown vs (14)  Belmont
Omaha
(7)  Purdue  vs (10)  Cincinnati
(2)  Missouri vs (15)  Montana

East Regional
Pittsburgh
(1)  Syracuse vs (16)  Stony Brook/Savannah State
(8)  Virginia vs (9)  Iowa State
Portland
(5)  UNLV vs (12)  Iona
(4)  Vanderbilt vs (13)  Long Beach State
Nashville
(6)  Murray State vs (11)  Mississippi State
(3)  Indiana vs (14)  Oral Roberts
Greensboro
(7)  Creighton vs (10)  Connecticut
(2)  North Carolina vs (15)  Akron