College Football 2013 - Week 5 Jabesblog Picks

Season Record:  51-36-1 (ATS)  72-16 (Straight-Up)
Last Week:  22-22 (ATS)  40-4 (Straight-Up)

Here are the picks for Week 5.  Better games and now FCS games this week.  I might even add editorial this week on some games to spice this up.

Georgia Tech 24, Virginia Tech (+7) 20 (W)
Georgia Tech has covered similar spreads the past two weeks, but the Hokies always give the Yellow Jackets fits.
Tulsa (-3) 31, Iowa State 19 (L)
Utah State (-9.5) 38, San Jose State 24 (W)
BYU 27, Middle Tennessee (+23.5) 14 (L)
Continue to bet against BYU until Vegas figures out the Texas game was an outlier for the Cougar offense.
Miami FL (-17) 42, South Florida 10 (W)
Didn't South Florida lose to McNeese State by 32 at home?
Oklahoma State (-18) 38, West Virginia 17 (L)
Tough to pick a West Virginia team on quarterback #3.
Illinois (-25) 41, Miami OH 10 (W)
UCF (+6.5) 24, South Carolina 23 (W)
Upset Special #1 of the week.  
Northern Illinois (-3.5) 38, Purdue 28 (W)
The Huskies already dispatched Iowa on the road, who coincidentally is better than Purdue.
TCU 31, SMU (+19.5) 20 (L)
Tennessee 33, South Alabama (+18.5) 21 (W)
North Carolina 37, East Carolina (+12) 31 (W)
C'mon Justin Hardy!!
Pittsburgh (-5.5) 34, Virginia 19 (W)
Navy (-3) 38, Western Kentucky 28 (L)
The Midshipmen are sneaky good this year.
Bowling Green (-14) 38, Akron 16 (W)
Duke (-13) 48, Troy 31 (L)
Oregon State 33, Colorado (+11) 28 (L)
Ball State (-2) 37, Toledo 31 (W)
Colorado State 27, UTEP (+14) 20 (L)
LSU (+3) 30, Georgia 27 (T)
Upset Special #2...I am tired of Alabama and LSU, so I assume they will both keep winning.
Oklahoma (-3.5) 27, Notre Dame 14 (W)
Florida State (-23) 48, Boston College 10 (L)
Minnesota (+2) 31, Iowa 27 (L)
NC State 30, Central Michigan (+23.5) 14 (L)
College Football betting 101, pick against Central Michigan.  I must have overslept for that class.  NC State's offense does not impress.
Clemson 37, Wake Forest (+28) 13 (L)
Clemson has protection problems and missing OL, not as easy a game as it appears.
Connecticut (pick'em) 28, Buffalo 21 (L)
Louisiana Tech (+2) 23, Army 17 (L)
Houston (-2.5) 38, UTSA 24 (W)
Temple 27, Idaho (+7) 24 (W)
Texas A&M (-14) 45, Arkansas 21 (L)
Bret Beilema, meet Johnny Football.
Alabama 34, Ole Miss (+14) 27 (L)
I hope Ole Miss shows the country how good they are and keeps it close.
Rice 30, Florida Atlantic (+14) 24 (W)
Florida (-12) 27, Kentucky 10 (W)
Florida's offense is bad, but the defense is oh-so-good.
Wyoming (-12) 34, Texas State 20 (L)
Washington 34, Arizona (+10) 31 (L)
I think the Huskies are getting over-hyped already.
Kent State (+2.5) 27, Western Michigan 23 (W)
ULM 29, Tulane (+12.5) 24 (W)
Vanderbilt 37, UAB (+19.5) 24 (L)
Too many distractions and Vandy simply isn't as good this year.
Missouri (-21.5) 49, Arkansas State 19 (W)
The Tigers have it rolling and Arkansas State was just pummeled by Memphis.
UNLV (-2.5) 28, New Mexico 23 (W)
The only time I will ever take UNLV as a road favorite.
San Diego State (-17.5) 42, New Mexico State 14 (L)
Nevada (-10) 41, Air Force 17 (L)
Air Force is missing their quarterback and were bad with him.
Boise State 38, Southern Mississippi (+27.5) 13 (L)
Stanford (-9.5) 28, Washington State 16 (W)
Oregon (-37) 70, California 20 (W)
There will be over 200 plays in this game, most of them Oregon touchdowns.
Arizona State (-3.5) 27, USC 17 (W)
Wisconsin (+6.5) 33, Ohio State 32 (L)
Upset Special #3...This time the Badgers get to kick the FG.

Weekly Record:  23-23-1
Season Record:   74-59-2

College Football 2013 - Week 4 Reset

Week 4 of the 2013 College Football season is complete.  Here is a conference-by-conference look that I will update now throughout the season.

BIG TEN	CURRENT RECORD	PREDICTED RECORD	PROJECTED RECORD	BOWL PROJECTION
Ohio State	0-0, 4-0	7-1, 12-1	7-1, 12-1	Rose Bowl
Wisconsin	1-0, 3-1	6-2, 9-3	6-2, 9-3	Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl
Penn State	0-0, 3-1	4-4, 8-4	4-4, 7-5
Indiana	0-0, 2-2	3-5, 6-6	2-6, 4-8
Purdue	0-1, 1-3	1-7, 2-10	0-8, 1-11
Illinois	0-0, 2-1	0-8, 2-10	2-6, 5-7
Nebraska	0-0, 3-1	7-1, 11-2	6-2, 9-3	Gator Bowl
Michigan	0-0, 4-0	6-2, 10-2	7-1, 11-2	Capital One Bowl
Northwestern	0-0, 4-0	6-2, 10-2	6-2, 10-2	Outback Bowl
Michigan State	0-0, 3-1	5-3, 8-4	4-4, 7-5	Meineke Car Care Bowl
Iowa	0-0, 3-1	2-6, 4-8	2-6, 5-7
Minnesota	0-0, 4-0	1-7, 4-8	2-6, 6-6	Heart of Dallas Bowl

 BIG TEN QUICK HITS: 

• I'll say it one more week...Braxton Miller returns this week for Ohio State, but would the Buckeyes be better off with Kenny Guiton at quarterback?  Especially this week against a Badger team more susceptible through the air than on the ground?
• If Wisconsin is going to beat the Buckeyes, the tandem of Melvin Gordon and James White are not only going to have to break-off big runs, but also churn out 3 and 4 yard gains that leave Joel Stave with reasonable yardage on 3rd downs.
• Based on my projections, Iowa and Minnesota are playing for a bowl bid this weekend.  Both teams have looked good enough in the non-conference season to pull-off an upset down the line, especially with the vulnerabilities that have emerged with most of the conference.  So this projection is subject to change.
• I wanted to downgrade Michigan, but I decided to wait at least a week to make any changes.  I would lean toward Northwestern as the best team in the Legends Division, but they must prove it against the conferences toughest schedule.  Michigan's problems are fixable, but they need to be fixed fast because Akron and UConn are not calling again.
• Indiana's chances of a rare bowl appearance took a big hit with it's 2-2 non-conference record.  The Hoosiers non-conference schedule didn't look overly daunting and with all 4 games at home, there was some optimism for a perfect start.  Alas, Navy and Missouri are quality offenses that Indiana typically does not have answers for and now a 4-4 Big Ten record is needed.  Not going to happen.

PAC 12	CURRENT RECORD	PREDICTED RECORD	PROJECTED RECORD	BOWL PROJECTION
Oregon	0-0, 3-0	9-0, 13-0	9-0, 13-0	BCS National Championship
Stanford	1-0, 3-0	7-2, 10-2	7-2, 10-2	Rose Bowl
Washington	0-0, 3-0	5-4, 8-4	6-3, 9-3	Holiday Bowl
Oregon State	1-0, 3-1	5-4, 8-4	4-5, 6-6	New Mexico Bowl
California	0-0, 1-2	2-7, 3-9	2-7, 3-9
Washington State	1-0, 3-1	1-8, 3-9	2-7, 4-8
Arizona State	0-1, 2-1	7-2, 9-4	6-3, 9-3	Sun Bowl
UCLA	0-0, 3-0	6-3, 8-4	6-3, 9-4	Alamo Bowl
USC	0-1, 3-1	6-3, 9-4	5-4, 8-5	Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Arizona	0-0, 3-0	4-5, 7-5	4-5, 7-5	Las Vegas Bowl
Utah	0-1, 3-1	2-7, 3-9	2-7, 5-7
Colorado	0-0, 2-0	0-9, 1-11	1-8, 3-8*

*No make-up game has been scheduled for the Colorado-Fresno State cancellation.

PAC 12 QUICK HITS: 

• Arizona State got a rude awakening in their PAC-12 opener.  The PAC-12 is too deep to take a half off against anyone, let alone Stanford.  I had high hopes for the Sun Devils, but I am starting to wonder if they have what it takes.
• On the other side, Stanford did what it needed, but continues to have some struggles on defense.  They will likely get that straightened out, but if not there is plenty of offensive talent to make them pay in this conference.
• Kudos for USC for gutting out a victory in a defensive battle this weekend.  That is what USC's wins are going to look like.  They won't outscore people, so they have to hope to keep teams around 20 all season long.
• With the depth of this conference, it will be interesting how teams like Washington State and Utah fair. I feel like they are going to trip up someone, as they already got USC and BYU, respectively.

SEC	CURRENT RECORD	PREDICTED RECORD	PROJECTED RECORD	BOWL PROJECTION
South Carolina	1-1, 2-1	7-1, 11-2	6-2, 9-3	Outback Bowl
Georgia	1-0, 2-1	6-2, 9-3	7-1, 10-3	Capital One Bowl
Florida	1-0, 2-1	5-3, 8-4	5-3, 7-5	Gator Bowl
Vanderbilt	0-2, 2-2	4-4, 8-4	2-6, 6-6	Advocare V100 Bowl
Missouri	0-0, 3-0	2-6, 6-6	3-5, 7-5	Music City Bowl
Tennessee	0-1, 2-2	2-6, 5-7	3-5, 6-6	BBVA Compass Bowl
Kentucky	0-0, 1-2	0-8, 2-10	0-8, 2-10
Texas A&M	0-1, 3-1	8-0, 13-0	7-1, 11-1	Orange Bowl
Alabama	1-0, 3-0	7-1, 11-1	7-1, 12-1	Sugar Bowl
Ole Miss	1-0, 3-0	5-3, 8-4	5-3, 9-3	Chick-Fil-A Bowl
LSU	0-0, 4-0	4-4, 8-4	6-2, 10-2	Cotton Bowl
Auburn	1-1, 3-1	3-5, 7-5	2-6, 6-6	Liberty Bowl
Mississippi State	0-1, 2-2	2-6, 5-7	2-6, 5-7
Arkansas	0-0, 3-1	1-7, 5-7	1-7, 4-8

 SEC QUICK HITS: 

• The game I am most looking forward to in the SEC this weekend is Ole Miss at Alabama.  The Crimson Tide got their hangover game in last week and it will be interesting to see if they can put together all 3 phases in a game.  Ole Miss is no pushover, but it seems they are not quite ready to challenge the likes of Alabama.  Unless the Tide offense or defense fails to show again.
• OK, LSU at Georgia is pretty big too.  Usually when I think LSU I think defense, but I expect an old-fashioned shoot-out on Saturday between Aaron Murray and Zach Mettenberger.
• Mississippi State is off this week, but they seem to have found something in Dak Prescott.
• A healthy James Franklin makes such a difference for Missouri.  If they stay healthy, look for Florida or South Carolina to be tripped up when they visit Missouri in October.
• Karma?  You tell us Arkansas.
• Jeff Driskel's injury, whether a blessing or not for the Gators, comes at a good time.  They can get by Tennessee and now Kentucky and Arkansas while Tyler Murphy settles in.

Big 12	CURRENT RECORD	PREDICTED RECORD	PROJECTED RECORD	BOWL PROJECTION
Oklahoma State	0-0, 3-0	8-1, 11-1	8-1, 11-1	Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma	1-0, 3-0	7-2, 10-2	7-2, 10-2	Alamo Bowl
Texas	1-0, 2-2	7-2, 10-2	5-4, 6-6	Meineke Car Care Bowl
Baylor	0-0, 3-0	6-3, 9-3	8-1, 11-1	Cotton Bowl
Kansas State	0-1, 2-2	6-3, 9-3	4-5, 6-6	Pinstripe Bowl
TCU	0-1, 1-2	5-4, 7-5	5-4, 7-5	Holiday Bowl
Texas Tech	1-0, 4-0	3-5, 6-6	5-4, 8-4	Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl
West Virginia	0-1, 2-2	2-7, 5-7	1-8, 3-9
Iowa State	0-0, 0-2	1-8, 3-9	1-8, 1-11
Kansas	0-0, 2-1	0-9, 1-11	1-8, 3-9

 Big 12 Synopsis: 

• I actually caught a little bit of Baylor this week.  That is fun to watch.  It will be all about the defense once they actually play someone, but nobody is going to fully stop their weapons.
• Texas may have turned a mental hurdle, but the bottom line is that they are likely not going to contend for the Big 12 title.  
• West Virginia is more inept than I realized.  Geno, where are you?
• I have gone back and forth on Oklahoma-Notre Dame and I am going with the Sooners this week.  The Sooner defense has been great all year and I think Blake Bell makes enough plays against an over-rated Irish defense.

ACC	CURRENT RECORD	PREDICTED RECORD	PROJECTED RECORD	BOWL PROJECTION
Florida State	1-0, 3-0	8-0, 13-0	8-0, 13-0	BCS National Championship
Clemson	1-0, 3-0	7-1, 10-2	7-1, 11-1	Sugar Bowl
Maryland	0-0, 4-0	4-4, 7-5	5-3, 9-3	Music City Bowl
NC State	0-1, 2-1	3-5, 6-6	3-5, 6-6	Advocare V100 Bowl
Boston College	1-0, 2-1	2-6, 5-7	2-6, 5-7
Syracuse	0-0, 2-2	2-6, 4-8	2-6, 4-8
Wake Forest	0-1, 2-2	1-7, 3-9	1-7, 2-10
Virginia Tech	0-0, 3-1	7-1, 10-3	6-2, 9-3	Sun Bowl
Miami FL	0-0, 3-0	6-2, 9-3	6-2, 10-3	Chick-Fil-A Bowl
Georgia Tech	2-0, 3-0	5-3, 8-4	6-2, 9-3	Russell Athletic Bowl
North Carolina	0-1, 1-2	6-2, 9-3	5-3, 8-4	Belk Bowl
Pittsburgh	1-1, 2-1	3-5, 6-6	2-6, 4-8
Duke	0-2, 2-2	1-7, 4-8	1-7, 4-8
Virginia	0-0, 2-1	1-7, 3-9	2-6, 5-7

 ACC Synopsis:

• It looks like the winner of this week's Georgia Tech-Virginia Tech game will be the top challenger to Miami in the ACC Coastal.  Virginia Tech is living by its defense, while Georgia Tech looks like the more complete team with 2 ACC victories already in hand.  Unfortunately for the Yellow Jackets, they always seem to find a way to lose to the Hokies.
• Can Maryland really crash the ACC Atlantic party that Florida State and Clemson are throwing?  If anything, the Terps get Clemson at home and present an additional challenge to the Tigers.
• Syracuse has found a quarterback and is the team most likely to rise in my projections in the weeks to come.

AAC	CURRENT RECORD	PREDICTED RECORD	PROJECTED RECORD	BOWL PROJECTION
Louisville	0-0, 4-0	7-1, 11-1	8-0, 12-0	Orange Bowl
Cincinnati	0-0, 3-1	6-2, 10-2	6-2, 9-3	Pinstripe Bowl
UCF	0-0, 3-0	6-2, 8-4	7-1, 10-2	Russell Athletic Bowl
Rutgers	0-0, 3-1	5-3, 7-5	6-2, 9-3	Belk Bowl
Houston	1-0, 3-0	4-4, 6-6	4-4, 7-5	BBVA Compass Bowl
South Florida	0-0, 0-3	3-5, 5-7	1-7, 1-11
Connecticut	0-0, 0-3	3-5, 4-8	2-6, 3-9
SMU	0-0, 1-2	3-5, 4-8	3-5, 4-8
Memphis	0-0, 1-2	2-6, 4-8	2-6, 4-8
Temple	0-1, 0-3	1-7, 4-8	1-7, 2-10

 AAC Synopsis:

• UCF's victory at Penn State serves notice to Louisville when the Golden Knights visit on October 18th.  
• Does Teddy Bridgewater really need to be throwing touchdown passes up 45-0 in the 3rd quarter?  I feel like Louisville is trying to find a way to keep Bridgewater relevant in the Heisman race.

Mountain West	CURRENT RECORD	PREDICTED RECORD	PROJECTED RECORD	BOWL PROJECTION
Boise State	1-1, 2-2	6-2, 9-4	6-2, 9-3	Poinsettia Bowl
Utah State	1-0, 2-2	6-2, 9-3	7-1, 9-4	Las Vegas Bowl
Wyoming	1-0, 3-1	4-4, 7-5	5-3, 8-4	Armed Forces Bowl
Air Force	0-3, 1-3	4-4, 6-6	4-4, 6-6	New Mexico Bowl
Colorado State	0-0, 1-3	2-6, 5-8	2-6, 4-9
New Mexico	0-0, 1-2	1-7, 3-9	1-7, 3-9
Fresno State	1-0, 3-0	7-1, 12-1	7-1, 11-1*	Fiesta Bowl
San Jose State	0-0, 1-2	6-2, 9-3	5-3, 7-5	Hawaii Bowl
San Diego State	0-0, 0-3	5-3, 7-5	4-4, 5-7
Nevada	1-0, 2-2	4-4, 5-7	4-4, 5-7
UNLV	0-0, 2-2	2-6, 4-8	2-6, 4-8
Hawaii	0-1, 0-3	1-7, 1-11	1-7, 1-11

*No make-up game has been scheduled for the Colorado-Fresno State cancellation.

 Mountain West Synopsis:

• Fresno State has the look of a BCS-buster.  Dispatching Boise State will leave them favored in every game from here on out.  They still must play at Wyoming and at San Jose State, as well as the Mountain West championship game.  Let's keep an eye on the Bulldogs.
• I still like what Utah State has done in losses to Utah and USC.  They are playing with quality PAC-12 teams, which has to bode well for the Mountain West season.

C-USA	CURRENT RECORD	PREDICTED RECORD	PROJECTED RECORD	BOWL PROJECTION
East Carolina	1-0, 2-1	7-1, 10-3	7-1, 10-3	Liberty Bowl
Marshall	0-0, 2-2	6-2, 8-4	6-2, 8-4	Heart of Dallas Bowl
Middle Tennessee	1-0, 3-1	5-3, 7-5	6-2, 8-4	Military Bowl
UAB	0-0, 1-2	4-4, 6-6	4-4, 5-7
Southern Miss	0-0, 0-3	3-5, 4-8	2-6, 2-10
FAU	0-2, 1-3	2-6, 3-9	2-6, 3-9
FIU	0-0, 0-4	0-8, 0-12	0-8, 0-12
Tulsa	0-0, 1-2	7-1, 9-4	6-2, 8-4	Beef O'Brady's Bowl
Rice	0-0, 1-2	6-2, 9-3	7-1, 9-4	New Orleans Bowl
Louisiana Tech	0-1, 1-3	5-3, 7-5	3-5, 5-7
North Texas	0-0, 2-2	4-4, 5-7	5-3, 7-5	Hawaii Bowl
Tulane	1-0, 2-2	3-5, 5-7	4-4, 5-7
UTEP	0-1, 1-2	2-6, 4-8	2-6, 3-9
UTSA	1-0, 2-2	2-6, 3-9	2-6, 3-9

 C-USA Synopsis:

• A 15-27 non-conference record is representative of the mediocre nature of the teams in Conference USA.  East Carolina gets another chance for a good win with North Carolina this week, after both the Pirates and Marshall squandered chances in back-to-back weeks against Virginia Tech.
• FIU is living up to my pre-season hype.

MAC	CURRENT RECORD	PREDICTED RECORD	PROJECTED RECORD	BOWL PROJECTION
Ohio	0-0, 3-1	7-1, 10-3	7-1, 10-3	Little Caesars Bowl
Bowling Green	1-0, 3-1	6-2, 8-4	6-2, 8-4	Military Bowl
Buffalo	0-0, 1-2	4-4, 6-6	4-4, 5-7
Kent State	0-1, 1-3	3-5, 5-7	4-4, 6-6
Miami OH	0-0, 0-3	3-5, 3-9	2-6, 2-10
Akron	0-0, 1-3	2-6, 3-9	2-6, 3-9
Massachusetts	0-0, 0-4	1-7, 2-10	1-7, 1-11
Northern Illinois	0-0, 3-0	7-1, 12-1	7-1, 12-1	GoDaddy.com Bowl
Ball State	1-0, 3-1	6-2, 9-3	7-1, 9-3	Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Toledo	1-0, 2-2	6-2, 8-4	6-2, 8-4	Beef O'Brady's Bowl
Western Michigan	0-0, 0-4	4-4, 5-7	2-6, 2-10
Central Michigan	0-1, 1-3	3-5, 4-8	3-5, 4-8
Eastern Michigan	0-1, 1-3	0-8, 1-11	1-7, 2-10

 MAC Synopsis:

• Get ready for a season of shoot-outs in the MAC.  The defenses of the top teams in the conference are not where they were a year ago.  The defenses of the bottom teams are atrocious.  Scoreboard operators beware.

Sun Belt	CURRENT RECORD	PREDICTED RECORD	PROJECTED RECORD	BOWL PROJECTION
Louisiana-Monroe	0-0, 2-2	6-1, 9-3	6-1, 9-3	New Orleans Bowl
Louisiana-Lafayette	0-0, 2-2	5-2, 8-4	5-2, 8-4	Little Caesars Bowl
Arkansas State	1-0, 2-2	5-2, 7-5	6-1, 8-4	GoDaddy.com Bowl
Western Kentucky	0-1, 2-2	5-2, 8-4	4-3, 7-5	Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Troy	0-1, 2-2	4-3, 5-7	3-4, 5-7
South Alabama	1-0, 2-1	2-5, 3-9	2-5, 3-9
Texas State	0-0, 2-1	1-6, 3-9	2-5, 5-7
Georgia State	0-0, 0-4	0-7, 1-11	0-7, 1-11

 Sun Belt Synopsis:

• The Sun Belt race should be a good one, even though these teams seem a little weaker than last year's version as well.  I am picking a team to win the conference that just lost 70-7.

Independents	CURRENT RECORD	PREDICTED RECORD	PROJECTED RECORD	BOWL PROJECTION
Notre Dame	3-1	9-3	8-4	Poinsettia Bowl
Navy	2-0	7-5	8-4	Armed Forces Bowl
BYU	1-2	6-6	6-6	Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Army	1-3	3-9	4-8
Idaho	0-4	1-11	2-10
New Mexico State	0-4	2-10	1-11