Tuesday, November 20, 2012

College Football 2012 - Week 12 Bowl Breakdown

2012 may finally be the year the NCAA realizes they have one too many bowls.  CNN Jabesblog is projecting that only 69 of the 70 necessary teams will be bowl-eligible in 2012, and that 69 will include a waiver for a 6-7 Georgia Tech team that has no business playing in the ACC Championship Game.  Missouri, Ole Miss, Wake Forest, Marshall, SMU and Troy have the ability to flip this with wins that I am not currently projecting.  Of course, Michigan State, Purdue, Baylor, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Rice and Central Michigan all have to secure projected wins to even reach that 69 number.  In this case, the 5-7 teams with the top AQ scores will be available for selection.

The PAC-12 is locked in with 8 bowl-eligible teams.  UCLA clinched the South Division berth in the PAC-12 Championship Game.  Stanford clinches the North Division berth with a win over UCLA this week or an Oregon loss.  Oregon can still claim the North Division berth with a win over Oregon State and a Stanford loss to UCLA.  My current projection has Stanford beating UCLA twice and Oregon also getting a BCS bid with one loss.

PAC-12 Reset:
1.  Oregon Ducks, 10-1 (Fiesta Bowl)
2.  Stanford Cardinal, 9-2 (Rose Bowl)
3.  UCLA Bruins, 9-2 (Alamo Bowl)
4.  Oregon State Beavers, 8-2 (Sun Bowl)
5.  Arizona Wildcats, 7-4 (Las Vegas Bowl)
6.  USC Trojans, 7-4 (Holiday Bowl)
7.  Washington Huskies, 7-4 (Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl)
8.  Arizona State Sun Devils, 6-5 (New Mexico Bowl)
9.  Utah Utes, 4-7
10. California Golden Bears, 3-9
11. Washington State Cougars, 2-9
12. Colorado Buffaloes, 1-10

Big 10
The Big 10 currently has 5 bowl-eligible teams with the potential for 2 more.  I am projecting both Purdue and Michigan State to win next week and give the conference 7 bowl-eligible teams.  Nebraska clinches the Legends Division berth in the Big 10 Championship Game with a win over Iowa or a Michigan loss to Ohio State.  Wisconsin will represent the Leaders Division in that game. 

Purdue (5-6) - Indiana (W) - projected record 6-6 (Purdue has played with some fight the past two weeks and Indiana is not playing for anything)

Michigan State (5-6) - at Minnesota (W) - projected record 6-6 (Raise your hand if you thought Sparty would need to win this one to be bowl-eligible)

Big 10 Reset:
1.  Ohio State Buckeyes, 11-0
2.  Nebraska Cornhuskers, 9-2 (Rose Bowl)
3.  Michigan Wolverines, 8-3 (Capital One Bowl)
4.  Wisconsin Badgers, 7-4 (Outback Bowl)
5.  Penn State Nittany Lions, 7-4
6.  Northwestern Wildcats, 8-3 (Buffalo Wild Wings)
7.  Minnesota Golden Gophers, 6-5 (Texas Bowl)
8.  Michigan State Spartans, 5-6 (Gator Bowl)
9.  Purdue Boilermakers, 5-6 (Heart of Dallas Bowl)
10. Indiana Hoosiers, 4-7
11. Iowa Hawkeyes, 4-7
12. Illinois Fighting Illini, 2-9
(currently not filling Little Caesars bowl slot)

The SEC got their help and may even monopolize the BCS National Championship Game if all falls right.  I picked Georgia to be there in the pre-season, so I am going to project them to beat Alabama and represent the SEC.  If Notre Dame loses, Florida would be in line to join them, but I project the Gators to fall this week to Florida State.  The SEC currently has 8 bowl-eligible teams with the potential for 10.  I am projecting a 5-7 Missouri team to be selected based on their AQ score to play in the BBVA Compass Bowl.

Ole Miss (5-6) - Mississippi State (L), projected record 5-7 (A valiant effort almost got it done at LSU.  The same effort will get it done against Missisippi State)

Missouri (5-6) - at Texas A&M (L), projected record 5-7 (The Tigers blew their best chance and now must derail Johhny Football in his own yard)

SEC Reset:
1.  Alabama Crimson Tide, 10-1 (Sugar Bowl)
2.  Georgia Bulldogs, 10-1 (BCS National Championship)
3.  Florida Gators, 10-1 (Outback Bowl)
4.  LSU Tigers, 9-2 (Capital One Bowl)
5.  Texas A&M Aggies, 9-2 (Cotton Bowl)
6.  South Carolina Gamecocks, 9-2 (Chick Fil-A Bowl)
7.  Mississippi State Bulldogs, 8-3 (Gator Bowl)
8.  Vanderbilt Commodores, 7-4 (Music City Bowl)
9.  Missouri Tigers, 5-6 (BBVA Compass Bowl**)
10. Ole Miss Rebels, 5-6
11. Tennessee Volunteers, 4-7
12. Arkansas Razorbacks, 4-7
13. Auburn Tigers, 3-8
14. Kentucky Wildcats, 2-9
(currently not filling Liberty, BBVA Compass** and Independence Bowl slot)

Big 12
The Big 12 had their BCS Championship hopes dashed and currently sit at 7 bowl-eligible teams.  After beating Kansas State, I am projecting Baylor to add a 6th win and give the Big 12 9 bowl-eligible teams.  I am also projecting Texas to beat Kansas State and provide the automatic BCS berth to Oklahoma.

West Virginia (5-5) - at Iowa State (W), Kansas (W), projected record 7-5 (better effort, same results)

Baylor (5-5) - Texas Tech (W), Oklahoma State (L) - projected record 6-6 (Texas Tech seems vulnerable, but will their be a Baylor letdown)

Big 12 Reset:
1.  Kansas State Wildcats, 10-1 (Alamo Bowl)
2.  Oklahoma Sooners, 8-2 (Fiesta Bowl)
3.  Texas Longhorns, 8-2 (Cotton Bowl)
4. Oklahoma State Cowboys, 7-3 (Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl)
5.  Texas Tech Red Raiders, 7-4 (Texas Bowl)
6.  TCU Horned Frogs, 6-4 (Pinstripe Bowl)
7.  West Virginia Mountaineers, 5-5 (Holiday Bowl)
8.  Iowa State Cyclones, 6-5 (Liberty Bowl**)
9.  Baylor Bears, 5-5 (Heart of Dallas Bowl)
10. Kansas Jayhawks, 1-10

The ACC is a mess.  With the self-imposed bowl ban by Miami, the conference currently sits at 5 bowl-eligible teams.  One of those 5, Georgia Tech, will have to beat either Georgia or Florida State to avoid a 6-7 record.  I am projecting Virginia Tech to garner a 6th bid for a conference that on the bright side, will place two teams in the BCS if Clemson beats South Carolina.

Virginia Tech (5-6) - Virginia (W), projected record 6-6 (uncharted territory for the Hokies)

Georgia Tech (6-5) - at Georgia (L), vs Florida State in ACC Championship (L) projected record 6-7 (UCLA was allowed into the bowl a year ago, I am guessing Georgia Tech will get the same treatment at 6-7)

Wake Forest (5-6) - Vanderbilt (L), projected record 5-7 (Having Vanderbilt at home gives them a shot)

ACC Reset
1.  Florida State Seminoles, 10-1 (Orange Bowl)
2.  Clemson Tigers, 10-1 (Sugar Bowl)
3.  North Carolina Tar Heels, 7-4
4.  NC State Wolfpack, 6-5 (Chick Fil-A Bowl)
5.  Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, 6-5 (Russell Athletic Bowl)
6.  Miami Hurricanes, 6-5 - self-imposed bowl ban
7.  Duke Blue Devils, 6-5 (Belk Bowl)
8.  Virginia Tech Hokies, 5-6 (Sun Bowl)
9.  Wake Forest Demon Deacons, 5-6
10. Virginia Cavaliers, 4-7
11.  Maryland Terrapins, 4-7
12. Boston College Eagles, 2-9
(currently not filling Music City, Independence or Military Bowl slot)

Big East
The Big East has 4 bowl-eligible teams with the potential for 6.  I do not believe Pitt or UConn has the horses to qualify for another bid in this conference.  I am projecting Rutgers over Louisville next week to secure the BCS bid from the Big East.

Pittsburgh (4-6) - Rutgers (L), at South Florida (W), projected record 5-7 (Pitt just lost their margin for error, gets a week off to prepare for Rutgers)

Big East Reset:
1.  Rutgers Scarlett Knights, 9-1 (Orange Bowl)
2.  Louisville Cardinals, 9-1 (Russell Athletic Bowl)
3.  Cincinnati Bearcats, 7-3 (Belk Bowl)
4.  Syracuse Orange, 6-5 (Pinstripe Bowl)
5.  Pittsburgh Panthers, 4-6
6.  Connecticut Huskies, 4-6
7.  Temple Owls, 4-6
8.  South Florida Bulls, 3-7
(currently not filling BBVA Compass Bowl or Beef O'Brady's Bowl slots)

Other Conferences/Independents
Marshall (5-6) - at East Carolina (L), projected record 5-7

SMU (5-6) - Tulsa (L), projected record 5-7
Rice (5-6) - at UTEP (W), projected record 6-6

Central Michigan (5-6) - at UMass (W), projected record 6-6

Troy (5-6) - at Middle Tennessee (L), projected record 5-7

Other Conferences/Independents Reset:
1.  Notre Dame Fighting Irish, 11-0 (BCS National Championship)
2.  Northern Illinois Huskies, 10-1 (Little Caesars Bowl)
3.  Kent State Golden Flash, 10-1 (GoDaddy.com Bowl)
4.  Boise State Broncos, 9-2 (Las Vegas Bowl)
5.  Utah State Aggies, 9-2 (Famous Idaho Potato)
6.  Tulsa Golden Hurricane, 9-2 (Liberty Bowl)
7.  Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, 9-2 (Independence Bowl**)
8.  San Diego State Aztecs, 8-3 (Poinsettia Bowl)
9.  Fresno State Bulldogs, 8-3 (Hawaii Bowl)
10. UCF Golden Knights, 8-3 (Beef O'Brady's Bowl)
11. Ohio Bobcats, 8-3 (BBVA Compass Bowl**)
12. Toledo Rockets, 8-3 (Beef O'Brady's Bowl**)
13. Ball State Cardinals, 8-3 (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl)
14. Bowling Green Falcons, 7-4 (Music City Bowl**)
15. San Jose State Spartans, 9-2 (Hawaii Bowl**)
16. Arkansas State Redwolves, 8-3 (GoDaddy.com Bowl)
17. Nevada Wolfpack, 7-4 (New Mexico Bowl)
18. Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders, 7-3 (Little Caesars Bowl**)
19. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks, 7-4 (New Orleans Bowl)
20. BYU Cougars, 6-5 (Poinsettia Bowl)
21. Navy Midshipmen, 7-4 (Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl)
22. East Carolina Pirates, 7-4 (New Orleans Bowl)
23. Air Force Falcons, 6-5 (Armed Forces Bowl)
24. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns, 6-4 (Independence Bowl**)
25. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, 6-5 (Military Bowl**)
26. Rice Owls, 5-6 (Armed Forces Bowl)
27. Central Michigan Chippewas, 5-6 (Military Bowl**)

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