Friday, November 2, 2012

College Football 2012 - Week 10 Jabesblog picks

Instead of picking every game straight up this year, I thought I would go more Vegas-style and select certain games each week to pick against the spread. Last weeks record:  A humbling 3-8. Season record: 46-37-2. Lock of the Week: 7-2.

Lock of the Week:  Cincinnati -4 vs Syracuse. It seems the football world has now soured on the Bearcats, but I am pretty sure losing at Louisville in overtime is not a bad loss and Toledo is a darn good football team as well. Syracuse doesn't usually travel well and Cincy has taken 6 of the last 7 in this match-up. I expect a little bounce-back from the Bearcats this week...Cincinnati 35, Syracuse 24.

Swamp Danger Game of the Week:  Missouri +17 at Florida.  The Tigers get James Franklin back and have to be a little desperate for their bowl life.  The Gators need to bounce back and hope for help in their SEC Championship pursuit.  Missouri has the Georgia film as a recipe to at least slow down the Florida offense and keep it close for a while...Florida 21, Missouri 14.

Wolverines Resemble Weasels Game of the Week:  Minnesota +11.5 vs Michigan.  The Gophers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games, while the Wolverines are only 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 trips out of Ann Arbor.  Combined with the fact that Denard Robinson is a little banged up and Minnesota has made a positive change at quarterback should lead to a closer than expected game...Michigan 28, Minnesota 23.

Rondey Dangerfield Game of the Week:  Mississippi State +7 vs Texas A&M.  I love me some Johnny Football, but it seems the Bulldogs are becoming a no respect team.  Who doesn't get blown out at Alabama?  This match-up could go either way, which makes taking 7 points with the home team too good to pass up...Texas A&M 34, Mississippi State 30.

Patriotic Game of the Week:  Air Force -7 at Army.  I hate to pick on the Cadets, but they seem to get line love on a weekly basis.  They are 1-7 with a loss to Stony Brook!!  The Falcons are playing better and have won 9 of 10 in this rivalry.  The road team is also 10-2 ATS in the last 12 in this match-up.  Look for Ground Force to run all over Army on Saturday...Air Force 42, Army 28.

Is Cam Newton Playing Game of the Week:  New Mexico State +22.5 at Auburn.  In a battle of 1-7 teams, that is a lot of points.  This line overlooks the flaws of Auburn and expects an equally inferior opponent to make them look good.  The Aggies should be able to score enough points to make this line hard to cover...Auburn 31, New Mexico State 21.

No Catchy Name Game of the Week:  Maryland +8 vs Georgia Tech.  The Terps didn't look good against BC a week ago, but Tech looked worse against BYU.  Maryland's defense has been a constant and this is not your recent solid versions of the Yellow Jackets.  4 of the last 5 meetings between these two have been closer than 8 points and I expect the same this week...Georgia Tech 23, Maryland 20.

Rested and Revived Game of the Week:  West Virginia -5 vs TCU.  With an extra week off to regroup, the Mountaineers should be ready for a TCU team that has not looked all that great for most of the season.  The young Horned Frog defense will be tested and this looks like a spot for WVU to get their season headed back in the right direction.  After losing on the road ny 22 last week, more of the same will be in store for TCU in Morgantown...West Virginia 42, TCU 20.

Those Pesky Panthers Game of the Week:  Pittsburgh +16.5 at Notre Dame.  Every few weeks the Notre Dame offense looks good, but usually they score 20 points or less.  Pitt usually plays Notre Dame tough and the last 4 meetings have been 3, 6, 5 and 3 point games.  I expect Notre Dame to continue their dream season, but not as easy as this line is making it look...Notre Dame 20, Pittsburgh 10.

Offensive Explosion I Game of the Week:Northern Illinois -34.5 vs Massachusetts.  The Minutemen average road margin is -35.6, so this line seems fair.  Michigan beat them by 50 and Northern's offense rivals that of the Wolverines.  With the Huskies on a roll, this one should turn ugly fast...Northern Illinois 56, Massachusetts 14.

A Season Down the Drain Game of the Week:  Penn State -3.5 at Purdue.  Has anyone seen Purdue play recently?  Yes they scared Ohio State, but I have no confidence in the Boilermakers who must realize their season is lost...Penn State 28, Purdue 17.

Very Few People Care Game of the Week:  Tulane +5.5 vs Rice.  I have no statistical or inside knowledge on this one.  It seems like Tulane's offense has woken up and that Rice is questionable on the road.  So in my effort to take more home teams, I like the Green Wave as a dog this week...Tulane 36, Rice 35.

You Read it Right Game of the Week:  La-Lafayette +10 at La-Monroe.  Yes, I am picking against ULM with ULL.  Road teams is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings, Underdog is 13-2 ATS in the last 15 meetings, ULL is 17-5 ATS in their last 22 on the road.  The numbers don't lie...ULM 35, ULL 34.

Offensive Explosion II Game of the Week:  Louisiana Tech -31 vs UTSA.  The Bulldogs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games and the over also has favorable stats in this one, which means the Tech offense is going to be revved up.  UTSA was 5-0 until they began playing better competition and has dropped the last 3 by an average of 26.3.  Louisiana Tech will be even better than that competition...Louisiana Tech 62, UTSA 21.

Nobody Cares Game of the Week:  UAB +3 at Southern Mississippi.  I am taking the 1-7 team over the 0-8 team, even on the road, and that is enough about this game...UAB 40, Southern Mississippi 37.

BCS Chaos Game of the Week:  LSU +8 vs Alabama.  All the line trends actually favor the Tide, but my gut says that this is the close one that Alabama will need to endure to reach a perfect season.  I want to pick the Tigers to cause SEC panic as far as the BCS, but I am not sure I can go that far...wait, since this is for entertainment purposes only, of course I can...LSU 19, Alabama 16.

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