Jabesblog NCAA Picks

I hesitate to post my picks after such an abismal showing last year, despite pegging Duke as the tournament champion.  That would be no fun though, so here is one man's vision as to how the "Big Dance" might orchestrate itself...

East Regional - 2nd Round
(1) Ohio State over (16) Texas-San Antonio
(9) Villanova over (8) George Mason
(5) West Virginia over (12) Clemson  (this one is tough due to efficiency, but Clemson is the master of bloated efficiency, and the short turn-around makes it even tougher)
(4) Kentucky over (13) Princeton
(11) Marquette over (6) Xavier  (Higher overall efficiency)
(3) Syracuse over (14) Indiana State
(7) Washington over (10) Georgia
(2) North Carolina over (15) Long Island

West Regional - 2nd Round
(1) Duke over (16) Hampton
(8) Michigan over (9) Tennessee
(5) Arizona over (12) Memphis
(4) Texas over (13) Oakland
(6) Cincinnati over (11) Missouri
(3) Connecticut over (14) Bucknell
(7) Temple over (10) Penn State
(2) San Diego State over (15) Northern Colorado

Southwest Regional - 2nd Round
(1) Kansas over (16) Boston U.
(8) UNLV over (9) Illinois
(12) Richmond over (5) Vanderbilt (Vandy def effeciency of 73 is greater than 34)
(13) Morehead State over (4) Louisville (Lousiville off efficiency of 40 is greater than 34, Morehead State plus 5.8 in created-possession margin)
(11) VCU over (6) Georgetown (Georgetown def efficiency of 52 is greater than 34, Chris Wright injury, very little difference in either margin)
(3) Purdue over (14) St. Peter's
(7) Texas A&M over (10) Florida State
(2) Notre Dame over (15) Akron

Southeast Regional - 2nd Round
(1) Pittsburgh over (16) UNC-Asheville
(9) Old Dominion over (8) Butler
(5) Kansas State over (12) Utah State
(4) Wisconsin over (13) Belmont
(11) Gonzaga over (6) St. John's (Gonzaga higher overall efficiency)
(3) BYU over (14) Wofford
(10) Michigan State over (7) UCLA
(2) Florida over (15) UC-Santa Barbara

East Regional - 3rd Round
(1) Ohio State over (9) Villanova
(5) West Virginia over (4) Kentucky
(3) Syracuse over (11) Marquette
(7) Washington over (2) North Carolina (identical overall efficiency and created-possession margin - Washington superior in scoring margin)

West Regional - 3rd Round
(1) Duke over (8) Michigan
(4) Texas over (5) Arizona
(3) Connecicut over (6) Cincinnati
(2) San Diego State over (7) Temple

Southwest Regional - 3rd Round
(1) Kansas over (8) UNLV
(12) Richmond over (13) Morehead State
(3) Purdue over (11) VCU
(2) Notre Dame over (7) Texas A&M

Southeast Regional - 3rd Round
(1) Pittsburgh over (9) Old Dominion
(4) Wisconsin over (5) Kansas State
(11) Gonzaga over (3) BYU
(2) Florida over (10) Michigan State

Sweet Sixteen
(1) Ohio State over (5) West Virginia
(7) Washington over (3) Syracuse
(4) Texas over (1) Duke
(2) San Diego State over (3) Connecticut
(1) Kansas over (12) Richmond
(3) Purdue over (2) Notre Dame
(1) Pittsburgh over (4) Wisconsin
(2) Florida over (11) Gonzaga

Elite Eight
(1) Ohio State over (7) Washington
(4) Texas over (2) San Diego State
(3) Purdue over (1) Kansas
(1) Pittsburgh over (2) Florida

Final Four
(1) Ohio State over (4) Texas
(1) Pittsburgh over (3) Purdue

National Championship
(1) Ohio State 72  (1) Pittsburgh 64

NCAA Tournament - Breaking it Down

Time to breakdown the brackets and see who is going to cut down the nets.  I will use several criteria in breaking the brackets down.  1)  Efficiency 2)  Scoring Margin 3)  Created Possession Margin 4)  Guard play  5)  Experience.  I also like to start by figuring out who the winner of the bracket is, then working in some of the details.

Efficiency
The last 28 Final Four participants have been in the Top 30 in defensive efficiency.  2003, the last time 2 participants were outside this mark, Marquette and Texas ranked #1 and #3 in offensive efficiency, respectively.  29 out of the last 32 ranked in the Top 30 in offensive efficiency as well, the outliers being George Mason, LSU and Butler (the list includes two of the biggest Cinderellas in tournament history). 

This year's candidates would seem to be Ohio State (1 off, 10 def), Kansas (4,12), Duke (5,3), Texas (19, 1), Pittsburgh (6,21), San Diego State (24,4), Kentucky (7,22), Purdue (18,8) and Syracuse (17,16).  Teams that could play into this would be Louisville (36,5), North Carolina (37,7), Connecticut (21,31) and West Virginia (31,29). {Did anyone notice Pittsburgh is the only team in the Southeast here?}

Efficiency can also play into First and Second Round Success.  Here are the efficiency numbers for teams the last few years that were a 6 or lower and lost a first round game or a 1 thru 4 who did not advance to the Sweet Sixteen.  I will also include overall efficiency as the first number.

2010 First Round Upsets
#3 Georgetown (13, 9, 47)
#4 Vanderbilt (35, 24, 60) - Defeated By Murray State (50, 71, 35)
#5 Temple (22, 75, 7) - Defeated by Cornell (52, 16, 117)
#6 Marquette (33, 22, 57) - Defeated by Washington (30, 36, 31)
#6 Notre Dame (38, 6, 132) - Defeated by Old Dominion (34, 82, 10)

2010 Second Round Surprises
#1 Kansas (2, 2, 8) - Defeated by Northern Iowa (29, 61, 16)
#2 Villanova (21, 12, 62) - Defeated by St. Mary's (42, 20, 88)
#3 Pittsburgh (31, 40, 26) - Defeated by Xavier (14, 14, 39)
#3 New Mexico (54, 27, 90) - Defeated by Washington (30, 36, 31)
#4 Wisconsin (9, 17, 19) - Defeated by Cornell (52, 16, 117)

2009 First Round Upsets
#4 Wake Forest (25, 43, 23) - Defeated by Cleveland State (60, 107, 38)
#5 Utah (30, 63, 26) - Defeated by Arizona (41, 7, 142)
#5 Florida State (36, 100, 12) - Defeated by Wisconsin (29, 36, 49)
#5 Illinois (24, 98, 4) - Defeated by Western Kentucky (89, 56, 163)
#6 West Virginia (9, 18, 14) - Defeated by Dayton (78, 150, 27)

2009 Second Round Surprises
#4 Washington (17, 40, 9) - Defeated by Purdue (18, 54, 5)

2008 First Round Upsets
#4 Vanderbilt (53, 42, 81) - Defeated by Siena (99, 101, 102)
#4 Connecticut (22, 17, 41) - Defeated by San Diego (113, 173, 68)
#5 Drake (27, 5, 77) - Defeated by Western Kentucky (59, 55, 69)
#5 Clemson (13, 29, 12) - Defeated by Villanova (43, 51, 64)
#6 USC (26, 52, 17) - Defeated by Kansas State (17, 20, 23)

2008 Second Round Surprises
#2 Georgetown (7, 18, 6) - Defeated by Davidson (20, 14, 31)
#2 Duke (8, 11, 9) - Defeated by West Virginia (19, 21, 24)
#4 Pittsburgh (21, 8, 54) - Defeated by Michigan State (15, 12, 26)

2007 First Round Upsets
#6 Notre Dame (20, 10, 49) - Defeated by Winthrop (69, 75, 71)
#6 Duke (11, 40, 5) - Defeated by VCU (66, 28, 131)

2007 Second Round Surprises
#2 Wisconsin (8, 26, 6) - Defeated by UNLV (42, 35, 44)
#3 Washington State (29, 54, 19) - Defeated by Vanderbilt (35, 21, 56)
#4 Maryland (10, 34, 8) - Defeated by Butler (25, 16, 48)
#4 Texas (21, 5, 62) - Defeated by USC (27, 41, 24)
#4 Virginia (45, 30, 59) - Defeated by Tennessee (31, 14, 54)

2006 First Round Upsets
#3 Iowa (19, 129, 1)
#4 Kansas (6, 38, 2) - Defeated by Bradley (26, 70, 11)
#5 Syracuse (51, 60, 55) - Defeated by Texas A&M (25, 80, 8)
#5 Nevada (35, 58, 41) - Defeated by Montana (88, 45, 159)
#6 Oklahoma (50, 25, 102) - Defeated by UW-Milwaukee (63, 74, 63)
#6 Michigan State (33, 18, 103) - Defeated by George Mason (23, 49, 18)

2006 Second Round Surprises
#2 Tennessee (22, 8, 79) - Defeated by Wichita State (32, 33, 66)
#2 Ohio State (18, 34, 24) - Defeated by Georgetown (14, 9, 38)
#3 North Carolina (8, 10, 20) - Defeated by George Mason (23, 49, 18)
#4 Illinois (11, 16, 21) - Defeated by Washington (13, 13, 28)

2005 First Round Upsets
#3 Kansas (12, 11, 18)
#4 Syracuse (17, 16, 22) - Defeated by Vermont (71, 60, 99)
#5 Alabama (18, 8, 52) - Defeated by UW-Milwaukee (53, 61, 53)
#6 LSU (39, 21, 87) - Defeated by UAB (59, 65, 58)

2005 Second Round Surprises
#2 Wake Forest (11, 2, 72) - Defeated by West Virginia (30, 18, 78)
#2 Connecticut (13, 26, 7) - Defeated by NC State (20, 14, 39)
#3 Oklahoma (9, 17, 12) - Defeated by Utah (23, 32, 19)
#3 Gonzaga (33, 10, 121) - Defeated by Texas Tech (28, 43, 26)
#4 Florida (6, 13, 9) - Defeated by Villanova (4, 12, 4)
#4 Boston College (25, 20, 46) - Defeated by UW-Milwaukee (53, 61, 53)

2004 First Round Upsets
#5 Florida (24, 10, 69) - Defeated by Manhattan (54, 67, 47)
#5 Providence (25, 34, 24) - Defeated by Pacific (82, 80, 92)

2004 Second Round Surprises
#1 Kentucky (9, 19, 9) - Defeated by UAB (43, 68, 28)
#1 Stanford (16, 47, 6) - Defeated by Alabama (29, 16, 50)
#2 Gonzaga (15, 8, 40) - Defeated by Nevada (22, 39, 15)
#2 Mississippi State (17, 21, 17) - Defeated by Xavier (20, 20, 20)
#3 NC State (8, 3, 33) - Defeated by Vanderbilt (23, 26, 30)
#4 Maryland (19, 44, 7) - Defeated by Syracuse (28, 27, 36)
#4 Cincinnati (11, 14, 19) - Defeated by Illinois (12, 6, 35)

2003 First Round Upsets
#4 Dayton (48, 7, 160) - Defeated by Tulsa (43, 62, 37)
#5 Mississippi State (12, 59, 3) - Defeated by Butler (45, 16, 124)
#6 Creighton (30, 27, 46) - Defeated by Central Michigan (72, 42, 122)

2003 Second Round Surprises
#2 Wake Forest (22, 18, 38) - Defeated by Auburn (44, 77, 29)
#2 Florida (14, 8, 34) - Defeated by Michigan State (15, 40, 10)
#3 Xavier (19, 19, 28) - Defeated by Maryland (6, 23, 5)
#4 Stanford (35, 36, 43) - Defeated by Connecticut (21, 24, 24)
#4 Louisville (13, 10, 26) - Defeated by Butler (45, 16, 124)
#4 Illinois (5, 14, 8) - Defeated by Notre Dame (32, 9, 113)

28 out of 32 First Round Upsets were lost by a 6 seed or higher with either an offensive or defensive efficiency rating above 34 (11 offense, 14 defense, 3 both).  Also, 29 of the 32 were of a 4-6 seed (it does not seem prudent to pick against a 1, 2 or 3 in round 1).  It does not mean that a team with one of these attributes always is upset, please keep that in mind.  This is just a mechanism for creating the pool of upset candidates.  That pool for 2011 based on this stat is Wisconsin (9, 2, 63), Louisville (12, 36, 5), Arizona (15, 14, 67), Cincinnati (23, 55, 15), Kansas State (29, 50, 27), Georgetown (31, 27, 52), Vanderbilt (32, 15, 76), St. John's (35, 47, 35) and Xavier (37, 30, 61).

The data on who beats these teams is not as good.  18 of the 28 were beaten by teams superior in either offensive or defensive efficiency.  Out of the 10 winners who were not superior in either category, 6 had an attribute in the Top 60 and 9 in the Top 80.  The opponents for the above 9 teams are Belmont (18, 32, 19), Morehead State (95, 111, 91), Memphis (85, 134, 60), Missouri (34, 28, 53), Utah State (16, 57, 6), USC (44, 76, 30) or VCU (84, 59, 143), Richmond (46, 48, 51), Gonzaga (27, 49, 26) and Marquette (33, 20, 71).  Morehead State would thus be eliminated and the pool of first round upsets sits at 8 potential.

There were 37 top 4 seeds to lose in the second round the last 8 years.  20 of them also had either an offensive or defensive efficiency rating of 34 or higher, similar to the first round pool.  Of the 17 that didn't, 14 were defeated by a team with a Top 20 attribute, 16 a Top 30 and all a Top 35.   Wisconsin would remain susceptible if they advance, along with Notre Dame (10, 3, 62), BYU (13, 8, 37), North Carolina (14, 37, 7) and  Florida (19, 16, 40).  Additional teams who could play a team with a top 20 attribute are North Carolina again (Washington 15, 9, 42), Texas (Arizona 25, 14, 67), Louisville (Vanderbilt 32, 15, 76), Syracuse (Marquette 33, 20, 71), Notre Dame again (Florida State 42, 153, 2), Wisconsin again (Utah State 16, 57, 6), Kansas (UNLV 22, 54, 14) and Connecticut (Cincinnati 23, 55, 15). 

Looking further, 36 of the 37 top 4 seeds were defeated by a team with at least one attribute in the top 35, 33 in the top 30. This makes Duke and Pitt safe, with Florida and San Diego State meeting the 30 criteria for being safe but not the 35.  This is not perfect data, but something to work with. 

Scoring Margin
Scoring Margin is often a great determinant of tournament success.  Belmont leads the way in scoring margin at 18.4, but that is a bit skewed due to the level of competition.  Similarly, Utah State at 13.9 places 6th and George Mason 11.8 and Gonzaga 11.6 place high as well.  While it cannot be completely ignored for these schools, it is a better indicator for power conference teams.  Here is the 2010-11 scoring margins.

Belmont 18.4
Ohio St. 17.3
Kansas 17.1
Duke 16.8
BYU 14.1
Utah St. 13.9
Texas 13.5
San Diego St. 13.2
Pittsburgh 13.1
Washington 13.1
Kentucky 12.6
George Mason 11.8
Gonzaga 11.6
Purdue 11.2
Louisville 10.7
Notre Dame 10.4
Syracuse 10.3
Missouri 9.9
Wisconsin 9.9
Cincinnati 9.8
UNLV 9.3
Richmond 9.2
Arizona 9.1
Oakland 9
North Carolina 8.9
Temple 8.8
Long Island 8.7
Vanderbilt 8.6
Florida 8.5
Butler 8.2
Morehead St. 8.1
Xavier 8.1
Texas A&M 7.9
Old Dominion 7.5
Clemson 7.3
Bucknell 7.3
Villanova 7.2
Florida St. 7.1
Kansas St. 7.1
Connecticut 7
Marquette 7
UAB 6.6
Princeton 6.5
Northern Colo. 6.5
Illinois 6.1
Wofford 6
UNC Asheville 6
West Virginia 5.5
Hampton 5.3
Georgetown 4.9
Akron 4.9
Georgia 4.5
UCLA 4.2
Southern California 4.1
VCU 4.1
Memphis 3.9
St. John's (NY) 3.7
Michigan 3.4
Tennessee 3.3
UC Santa Barbara 3
Indiana St. 2.4
Michigan St. 2.3
Boston U. 2
St. Peter's 1.5
UTSA 1.3
UALR 1
Penn St. 0.6
Alabama St. -2.3

Obviously, Ohio State, Duke and Kansas rise to the top again.  The Big East is interesting because with the level of competition this year, you would expect their numbers to be low, and for the most part they are.  North Carolina and Florida jump out here as teams who probably don't have enough to make a Final Four run.

Created Possession Margin
Created possession margin is simply your rebound margin plus your turnover margin, essentially calculating how many more possessions you will get than your opponent.  Here are the numbers (rebound, turnover, total):

Old Dominion 12.2 -1 11.2
Pittsburgh 10.4 -0.3 10.1
Ohio St. 4.8 4.9 9.7
Morehead St. 9.2 0.1 9.3
Belmont 3.9 5.2 9.1
Kansas 7.8 0.9 8.7
Utah St. 8 0.3 8.3
San Diego St. 6.7 1.6 8.3
Texas 6.6 1.2 7.8
Kansas St. 6.8 0.9 7.7
Cincinnati 4.7 2.8 7.5
North Carolina 6.5 0.7 7.2
Washington 4.6 2.6 7.2
Gonzaga 5.9 1.2 7.1
Texas A&M 6.5 0.4 6.9
BYU 3.4 3.4 6.8
Florida 6.1 0.1 6.2
Wisconsin 3.8 2.3 6.1
Kentucky 4.2 1.6 5.8
Syracuse 3.7 1.9 5.6
Duke 2.7 2.8 5.5
Purdue 1.5 4 5.5
Northern Colo. 5.4 -0.1 5.3
UNLV 1.7 3.6 5.3
Temple 2.8 2.5 5.3
Tennessee 4.2 0.9 5.1
George Mason 2.3 2.7 5
Butler 3.4 1.6 5
Xavier 4.4 0.5 4.9
Marquette 2.7 2.1 4.8
Villanova 4.6 0.2 4.8
Long Island 5.1 -0.4 4.7
Connecticut 4.1 0.4 4.5
Notre Dame 4.5 -0.3 4.2
Florida St. 4.7 -0.6 4.1
Princeton 4.2 -0.2 4
St. John's (NY) 0.1 3.7 3.8
Arizona 3.9 -0.1 3.8
Oakland 5.2 -1.5 3.7
Clemson 1.9 1.8 3.7
Missouri -1.9 5.5 3.6
Louisville 0.5 3 3.5
West Virginia 3.5 0 3.5
Georgia 4.7 -1.2 3.
Michigan St. 4.2 -1.3 2.9
Wofford 1.2 1.6 2.8
UAB 2.5 0.2 2.7
UNC Asheville -0.4 2.6 2.2
Southern California 1.2 0.6 1.8
UCLA 4.5 -2.8 1.7
Penn St. 1.4 0.2 1.6
Vanderbilt 2.2 -0.9 1.3
Illinois 1.7 -0.5 1.2
Bucknell 0.4 0.6 1
Alabama St. 0.9 -0.2 0.7
Georgetown 2.5 -1.9 0.6
Indiana St. 1.5 -1 0.5
UALR -1.5 2 0.5
Richmond -1.7 2 0.3
Memphis 0.7 -0.4 0.3
Boston U. 0.8 -0.7 0.1
VCU -3.7 3.3 -0.4
Michigan -1.9 1.4 -0.5
Akron -2.8 2.2 -0.6
Hampton -4.3 3.5 -0.8
UTSA -1.4 0.6 -0.8
UC Santa Barbara -0.3 -0.7 -1
St. Peter's -0.5 -0.9 -1.4

The usual suspects, Pittsburgh, Ohio State and Kansas toward the top here.  San Diego State and Texas not far behind.  Old Dominion would look like a nightmare for most teams, but a second round date with Pittsburgh provides them a clone match-up. 

Guard Play
Experienced, savvy, talented guards can make a big difference in March.  Here are some of the potential difference makers here:

Duke - Nolan Smith
Ohio State - William Buford, Jon Diebler
Connecticut - Kemba Walker
BYU - Jimmer Fredette
Notre Dame - Ben Hansborough
Wisconsin - Jordan Taylor
Kansas State - Jacob Pullen
Xavier - Tu Holloway
Washington - Isaiah Thomas
Michigan State - Kalin Lucas
Pittsburgh - Brad Wanamaker
Illinois - Demetri McCamey
Villanova - Corey Fisher, Corey Stokes
St. John's - Dwight Hardy
Georgetown - Austin Freeman
Louisville - Preston Knowles
Richmond - Kevin Anderson

Experience
Experience can be measured two ways - tournament experience and overall experience.  Here are some observations here:

Experienced Rosters:
Duke has the two seniors, Singler and Smith, plus the Plumlees and Dawkins were through it last year.
Ohio State has the three seniors and one junior to go along with their 3 freshman.
Kansas starts five upperclassmen, but none have been stars in any tourney run.
Pittsburgh starts five upperclassmen who have yet to make a deep run.
Notre Dame starts five seniors, but they also have not made any big tourney runs for experience.
San Diego State has four seniors in their rotation.
Purdue starts four upperclassmen including two big-time seniors in Johnson and Moore.
Florida and BYU start four upperclassmen, including Jimmer of course.
Louisville, Vanderbilt and Georgetown all start four upperclassmen.
Wisconsin starts four upperclassmen, including Taylor and Leuer.
West Virginia starts all upperclassmen.
Xavier starts four upperclassmen who all have good tourney experience.
St. John's starts four seniors with no tournament experience.
Temple has good experience with Fernandez, Moore and Allen all upperclassmen.
George Mason starts four upperclassmen, but they all make their first tourney appearance.
Old Dominion starts four seniors who made the second round last year.
Villanova starts three seniors with tourney experience.
Illinois starts four seniors.
Georgia starts five upperclassmen, but they lack NCAA experience.
Michigan State starts four upperclassmen with loads of NCAA experience.
Penn State starts four seniors, but all are playing in their first NCAA tournament.
Missouri has four juniors who average 10 PPG.
Marquette starts four upperclassmen, but they have little tourney experience in their current roles.
USC starts five upperclassmen lacking in tourney experience.
VCU also starts five upperclassmen.
Richmond starts four upperclassmen.
Clemson starts four upperclassmen who have yet to win a tournament game.
Oakland has 4 upperclassmen who combined average 58 PPG.
Utah State and Wofford both start five upperclassmen who have been to the tourney before.

Inexperienced Rosters:
North Carolina starts no seniors and are led by freshman.
Connecticut is very young outside of Kemba Walker.
Texas' three top players are freshman or sophomores.
Kentucky is very young with three prominent freshman.
Arizona has no senior starters.
Memphis starts four freshman.
Michigan is very, very young.
UCLA starts no seniors.

There you have it.  Five good factors to help you fill out your bracket.  Not one of them is going to work on its own every year, but when you get to a close match-up, check out these five factors.

NCAA Selection Committee Commandments

Year two of bracketiatry is now complete.  I am pleased to say that I was the 4th most accurate bracket contributor on the web based upon the bracket matrix (Matrix)!!  I also continue to learn things about the selection process, some new to me this year and some that I picked up on in time for this year's bracket.

NCAA Selection Committee Commandments
1.  Thou shall place an ACC team on the #1 line if at all possible.  A lot of talk leading up to the bracket centered around whether Duke would get a #1 seed or whether the Big East would garner two.  Once Duke made the finals of the ACC tournament, I don't think the selection committee blinked an eye at it the rest of the weekend. 

2.  Thou shall never have Duke or North Carolina play a regional outside of their home state.  Pittsburgh, the overall #3 seed, is closer to Cleveland than to Washington D.C.  In order to have one of the 16 vs 16 play-in games played on Thursday, Pittsburgh was moved to Washington D.C. (albeit just an extra 100 miles).  The overall #4 seed Duke, could also have moved just 100 miles to play in D.C. instead of Charlotte, but of course, they received preferential treatment.

3.  Thou shall ignore the results of Sunday Conference Tournament games unless a surprise automatic bid is on the line.  North Carolina and Florida were beaten soundly but were able to maintain their placement on the #2 line.  Why?  Even 3 hours before the big reveal is too late to start shifting teams on seed lines.  There are two many dominoes that fall every time you move a team.  While I listened to this commandment and left these teams alone, I broke this rule and switched BYU and Kentucky around after the Wildcats impressive win.  Never again.

4.  Thou shall never seed a team from the Colonial Athletic Association higher than 8.  Old Dominion had one of the best mid-major resumes in recent history but garnered only a #9 seed.  I agree my assessment of a #6 was a bit over-zealous, but I deemed their resume to be more impressive than Xavier and Temple out of the Atlantic 10 who were sure to get top 7 seeds.  Beyond that, can anyone explain how they are the #9 and Butler the #8 within their own game?  Old Dominion's resume dwarfs Butler's.

5.  Thou shall always put Virginia Tech on the wrong side of the bubble.  I have no argument for their inclusion in the tournament, but it seems no matter what they do, Seth Greenberg can't get them in.  Schedule harder-check!  Beat a top team-check!  Win an ACC tournament game against a fellow bubble team-check!  Get left out of the dance once again-check!!

6.  Thou shall include two mid-majors in the first-four games in the middle of the bracket.  I had a gut feeling on this one, just made the wrong call between St. Mary's and UAB.  With the expansion of the tournament by three teams, the committee would have looked like Big 6 propagandists if the play-in games were USC-Virginia Tech and Clemson-Colorado.  In my opinion, I am all for giving deserving mid-majors this chance.

7.  Thou shall be lazy in seeding teams despite having the entire weekend.  My biggest beef here is with the two potential Big East vs Big East 2nd round games.  I know with 11 Big East teams the rules no longer applied.  Still, to move one of the 6 seeds up or down a line and have Marquette be a 10 or 12 are not hard changes to make.  I dealt with this for 6 weeks of bracketing.  It is not overly difficult.

8.  Thou shall ignore zero top 50 victories if such team is from the ACC.  Clemson has zero top 50 wins.  They had 6 chances, including blowing a big lead against North Carolina in the ACC semis.  If you think about it, there are 18 teams seeded 13 or lower that are basically the automatic bids from mid to low major conferences.  That means the top 50 teams receive the rest of the automatic and at-large bids.  Clemson has proven they cannot beat these teams.  Yes, Colorado had 12 chances, but were successful 5 times, including road and neutral wins against a 5 seed.  Furthermore, Clemson beat only two teams in the field, Florida State and Wofford, both at home.

9.  Thou shall make some unusual geographical decisions.  If I am Syracuse, the prospect of playing the 6 seed Xavier in their home state does not seem advantageous.  I understand only top 4 seeds are to be protected, but St. John's drawing Gonzaga in Denver and Washington getting Georgia in Charlotte are two other examples of site advantages for lower seeds.

10.  Thou shall create the most exciting 3 weeks of the year.  With all that is said above, the committee does a wonderful job at providing a tournament matched by no other.  I now look forward to the bracket filling itself out.

Jabe's Bracket - Final Bracketed Version

Jabe's Bracket - FINAL (Seed List Model)

Here it is...the final Jabe's Bracket before the actual field is announced.  I will post a final bracketed version next.  Bring it on Joe Lunardi!!!

Jabe's Bracket - March 11, 2011 (through early games)

Honestly, who knows from 8 to 12.  I think Michigan, Clemson and Colorado have done enough for lock status.  I switched Georgia out for Alabama, but if Virginia Tech loses tonight, I will have to look hard at Georgia vs Virginia Tech.  Dayton and New Mexico also become troublesome.  What if Penn State wins tonight, who do they leap over?  USC is in with a win, but who knows with a loss.  What if Memphis loses to UTEP in the C-USA final?  Anyway, with exactly 48 hours left, there is still much to be decided.

Jabe's Bracket - March 10, 2011

Today's update includes the switch I pondered yesterday...moving Notre Dame to the 1-line and Duke to the 2-line, but allowing Duke to play in the East regional.  Ohio State might not like it, but with North Carolina as the next option there, is it really much different?  Ultimately, the ACC tournament could be for the right to go to Newark vs New Orleans, depending on how Notre Dame fairs in the Big East Tourney.  Newark would be the preferred destination for the Irish too, but c'mon, who are we fooling as to which teams usually get what they want.

Other results from yesterday...in the middle of the bracket, Connecticut solidified at least a 5-seed and now competes with St. John's and Louisville for the last 4's.  Georgetown's loss creates bracketing headaches.  The resume is no lower than a 6, but the Chris Wright injury may cost them another spot.  I just don't see ODU moving to the 6-line, so Vandy or Temple would have to steal that spot at this point.  West Virginia stayed on the 5-line despite their early Big East exit, but we will keep an eye on Cincinnati, Xavier, Texas A&M and Kansas State over the next few days.

In the bubble watch, Marquette locked up a bid in my bracket with the neutral win vs West Virginia.  The most impressive thing is that they needed to win, fell behind in the game, but stepped-up like an NCAA tournament team needs to and pulled out the victory.  Colorado survived to see another day and could lock-up their bid with a Marquette-like performance vs Kansas State today.  A Colorado loss is not an automatic out now, but they will sweat out the C-USA, Big 10 and Pac-10 tourneys.

Thursday is a veritable buffet of bracket-altering games, so Jabe's Bracket will be back tomorrow.  Anyone who reads this want an update of the records vs teams in/under consideration?  Leave me a comment and I will drop Baylor out of it and update for Wednesday's action.

NCAA Tournament - Records vs Teams In/Under Consideration

One metric that I have not seen anywhere is the record of teams in or under consideration for the tourney vs other teams in or under consideration for the tourney.  In the end, these are the teams that will be facing each other.  Who cares if you can beat Marshall if they have no chance at the tourney.  Wichita State has a nice RPI but you won't have to beat them either.  Obviously, this cannot be used as a stand alone measure for either seeding or inclusion, but I believe the committee has this at its disposal and it would seem like an important criteria. 

I did a quick analysis of this and the results are below.  Teams included in the metric are 1) the obvious locks, 2) any remaining RPI Top 50 teams, 3) the bottom 18 automatic bids for one-bid conferences (if the conference tourney is not complete, the #1 seed is used) and 4) all other teams widely considered to still be under consideration (Nebraska I feel vacated that list today, so Baylor and New Mexico are my last inclusions on this list).

A few observations...1) Michigan, widely scrutinized on the message board for zero "quality" wins, has beaten 7 teams meeting this criteria, more than Xavier, Cincinnati and Texas A&M.  2) USC may be closer to the field than people think.  Yes they have bad losses, and quite a few of them, but a 6-5 record against this list is not too shabby.  3)  Richmond may be in more trouble than I thought.  The win over Purdue is probably enough, but they could use a victory over Temple just to be sure.  4)  If Alabama plays and beats Georgia, the Tide will be 4-4 and the Dogs 4-11 against this list.  I would lean toward 'Bama, especially with their season sweep of Georgia.

Jabe's Bracket - March 9, 2011

Updated for last night's events - the biggest of which was the removal of UW-Milwaukee and the addition of an at-large slot for Virginia Tech.  Villanova's early exit likely places them in an 8/9 game somewhere. 

My biggest struggle right now is the Duke vs Notre Dame debate for the final #1 seed.  Despite their higher RPI, Notre Dame obviously has the best wins of any team in the nation.  The committee's Duke bias might actually work for them to be a #2 and go Charlotte/Newark as opposed to being sent to Anaheim.  Without the conference tourney results at this point, I am strongly considering this change for tomorrow's bracket.  While it won't change the seed lines of most teams below it, it will have an effect on location and conference mix in each bracket.  Stay tuned!!

Jabe's Bracket - March 8, 2011

Minor update for results from the championship games last night and a flip between Texas A&M and Vanderbilt that I meant to make yesterday.

Jabe's Bracket - March 7, 2011

You would think that essentially two days of basketball would not have a significant impact at this point.  That thinking would be completely wrong!!

I will start at the top - Ohio State re-claimed the overall #1 spot, despite a slight edge to Kansas in numbers.  This is completely an eye test selection.  No team looks better than the Buckeyes at their best.

What about the final #1?  I am sticking with Duke, who still has fewer losses and a higher RPI than Notre Dame.

North Carolina is the big mover of the week, securing an important 2nd RPI Top 25 win and vaulting to the 2-line with their outright ACC Title.  Kansas State, West Virginia and Cincinnati continue to navigate up the bracket, while Villanova, Vanderbilt and Georgetown move the other way.

What a bad year to be a #1 seed in a mid-major conference tournament.  Belmont came through unscathed, but very few others are having that same result.  I added UW-Milwaukee to my bracket today, but as a #1 seed that was probably premature.  With UWM and VCU out there as bid-stealers, I took my chances one would follow-through and shrink the bubble by one.

As far as the bubble goes, the teams seeded 10 and up are fairly safe.  Those other 9 teams, along with the likes of Virginia Tech, Clemson, Alabama and Penn State, plus any additional bid-stealers, are vying for the remaining spots.

Love the Madness!!!

Jabe's Bracket - March 4, 2011

There are some tweaks in Friday's update as I had a little time to look further into some resume factors and to study the selections from the 2009 and 2010 tournaments. 

I will start at the bottom, where all the uncertainty lies.  The first thing I did was reinstate Memphis.  Despite zero RPI top 25 wins, they had three factors positive of past tournament teams with 5 RPI Top 50 wins, 9 RPI top 100 wins and a +5 against the RPI top 200.  They also have a road win at Gonzaga, who I had been including in my bracket.

Then there is Marquette.  The last two years, no team received an at-large berth with a negative +/- against the RPI Top 200.  Marquette currently sits at -1.  Their 4 RPI Top 25 wins make them worthy of a bid, but the other factor caused me to move them down to one of the 3 expanded spots this year, which bring in new unique criteria not used in the past with 65 teams.  If they can be plus one the rest of the season, they would move up in seeding.  The other teams taking the expanded spots are Gonzaga and Colorado, who both have RPI's over 70 (and Colorado has a negative RPI Top 200 +/-).  These two teams are 2 of four currently under consideration with at least 1 RPI Top 25 win. 

Kansas takes over as the overall #1 by a hair, with more Top 50 and Top 100 wins than Ohio State, and better plus/minuses in both as well.

Syracuse hopped Texas for the last #2.  The Orange seem to have righted their ship as Texas goes in the opposite direction.  With more RPI Top 25, 50 and 100 wins than the Longhorns, this switch was made.

Arizona is the hardest team to seed at this point.  UCLA's loss likely means the Wildcats will win the regular season Pac-10 crown, which got Cal vastly overseeded last year.  Arizona also has a +16 vs the RPI Top 200, which has yielded no lower than a 5 seed the past two years.  They still lack in RPI Top 25 and 50 wins, but Utah got a 5 seed with zero RPI Top 25 wins two seasons ago.

After looking at what the committee has done, I moved George Mason back to a #8 for now.  If they close out the Colonial Tourney, I think the Northern Iowa seeding will be fresh enough to move them back up to a #7.

Probably the last update until late Sunday or Monday.

Jabe's Bracket - March 3, 2011

I am at an absolute loss for words...it is almost unexplainable how few bubble teams are winning games, let alone quality games.  That is why Virginia Tech and Colorado remain in the field.  They beat Duke and Texas last week and that beefed up their resumes enough to withstand some of the other activity around them.  I am honestly hoping for a bid-stealer or two to clear this up, but the possibilities are not great.  Here are the potential bid-stealers outside of a shocking major conference run.

Colonial - George Mason and Old Dominion are locks now, so Hofstra, VCU and Drexel will take aim at stealing a bid.
Mountain West - The top 3 are locked, so a run by Colorado State or New Mexico would assure a 4th bid.
WAC - Utah State would seem to be safe if they made the WAC final, so maybe a hot Boise State team steals a bid and the WAC gets two.
Horizon - Butler is not a lock, but a Horizon Final loss to say a UW-Milwaukee would make an interesting debate.
Conference USA - If UAB closes out the regular season title, that combined with a high RPI may offset a lack of quality wins this year if the Blazers don't win the C-USA tourney.
Atlantic 10 - Richmond is not a lock yet, but if a surprise teams scoops up the A-10 bid and Richmond wins their next two games, it might turn this into a 4-bid league.

Jabe's Bracket - March 2, 2011

Adjustments made for Monday/Tuesday results. At the top, not much has changed. Texas slid down the curve on the 2 line and could be a #3 if they don't turn it around. I hemmed and hawed and decided that Florida as SEC Champ would trump a second place Mountain West team. If San Diego State wins out, they can get back to a #3. Villanova continues its fall, allowing Xavier to occupy that troublesome last #5 spot. The spot is perfect for the Pac-10 champ, but that has to all play itself out. Kansas State and Missouri did a flip-flop at #7/#8. At the bottom, Boston College replaced Clemson with their victory over Virginia Tech last night. Virginia Tech stayed in the bracket, but has some work left now. Nebraska set-up a possible bid-showdown with Colorado this weekend (if the Buffaloes beat Iowa State tonight). Baylor is done. Penn State is all-but-done. Alabama is in huge trouble.