Wednesday, February 12, 2014

College Basketball Field of 68 Bracket (Feb 12, 2014)

In today’s bracket update, I will compare the resumes of Kentucky and Texas.  I am not a Wildcat-hater, I just like to identify things that don’t make a lot of sense.

Overall Record:  Kentucky 18-5/Texas 19-5
Conference Record and Standing:  Kentucky 8-2, 2nd SEC/Texas 8-3, 2nd Big 12
Road Record:  Kentucky 3-3/Texas 5-2
RPI:  Kentucky 10/Texas 22
SOS:  Kentucky 6/Texas 60
Record vs RPI Top 25:  Kentucky 0-1/Texas 2-2
Record vs RPI Top 50:  Kentucky 3-2/Texas 5-5
Record vs RPI Top 100:  Kentucky 10-5/Texas 10-5
Record vs RPI Top 150:  Kentucky 12-5/Texas 12-5
Best Wins:  Kentucky – Louisville (34), Missouri (47), Tennessee (49), Providence (52)/Texas – Kansas (1), Iowa State (11), Kansas State (30), Oklahoma State (36), North Carolina (37)  
Losses:  Kentucky – Michigan State (9), North Carolina (37), Baylor (58), LSU (59), Arkansas (73)/Texas – Michigan State (9), Oklahoma (21), Kansas State (30), Oklahoma State (36), BYU (46)

This is where I feel RPI and SOS can be misleading.  The teams have essentially the exact same record.  Both teams are in 2nd place in conference, but Texas plays in the more difficult Big 12.  Texas has a better road record, better wins and better losses.  Yet because Texas played worse teams in the games against sub-150 opponents, their SOS and RPI get dragged down well below Kentucky’s, giving the perception that Kentucky would have the superior resume.  But do they really?  What is the difference if your cupcakes are 286,291,300 and 340 like Texas or 206,240,296 like Kentucky.  Both teams were going to beat those teams anyway.  Texas has played double the Top 50 teams, yet their SOS is 54 spots lower because of Rice and Houston Baptist.  

If Kentucky beats Florida, they can at least argue that they took advantage of their lone big conference opportunity, something Texas has had more of.  Still, that victory alone would only change the above analysis slightly.

East

(1) Syracuse
(16) Robert Morris/Coastal Carolina
BUFFALO, NY
(8) Memphis
(9) VCU

(5) UCLA
(12) Toledo
SAN DIEGO, CA
(4) Texas
(13) Mercer

(6) Oklahoma
(11) Tennessee
SAN ANTONIO, TX
(3) Wisconsin
(14) Iona

(7) Pittsburgh
(10) SMU
BUFFALO, NY
(2) Villanova
(15) Boston U.

West

(1) Arizona
(16) Utah Valley
SAN DIEGO, CA
(8) Gonzaga
(9) New Mexico

(5) St. Louis
(12) North Dakota State
SPOKANE, WA
(4) Virginia
(13) UCSB

(6) Ohio State
(11) Georgetown
SPOKANE, WA
(3) San Diego State
(14) Stephen F. Austin

(7) Connecticut
(10) California
ST. LOUIS, MO
(2) Kansas
(15) North Carolina Central

Midwest

(1) Wichita State
(16) Weber State/Southern U.
ST. LOUIS, MO
(8) George Washington
(9) Arizona State

(5) Kentucky
(12) Southern Miss
SAN ANTONIO, TX
(4) Iowa State
(13) Green Bay

(6) Louisville
(11) Minnesota
MILWAUKEE, WI
(3) Creighton
(14) Delaware

(7) North Carolina
(10) Stanford
MILWAUKEE, WI
(2) Michigan State
(15) Georgia State

South

(1) Florida
(16) Davidson
ORLANDO, FL
(8) Oklahoma State
(9) Colorado

(5) Iowa
(12) Providence/Richmond
ORLANDO, FL
(4) Cincinnati
(13) Harvard

(6) Kansas State
(11) LSU/Oregon
RALEIGH, NC
(3) Michigan
(14) Belmont

(7) Massachusetts
(10) Xavier
RALEIGH, NC
(2) Duke
(15) Vermont

3 comments:

  1. If, and it's a big IF, Wisconsin is on the 3 or 4 seed line, I think the committee will send them to Milwaukee. I think it is a lock if they end up a #3 to me in Milwaukee, 50/50 chance as a #4.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Milwaukee is also a close site for Michigan and Creighton, who both reside higher than Wisconsin on my seed list, giving them priority.

    ReplyDelete
  3. With your bracket and seeding above (WI and Creighton both with 3 seeds), the committee would be out of their minds to not send Wisconsin to the Milwaukee region. If they were to then reward Creighton, it is more likely they would then do so to St. Louis and ship Wichita State to San Antonio as their "close site".

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