Instead of picking every game straight up this year, I thought I would go more Vegas-style and select certain games each week to pick against the spread. Last weeks record: 5-6-1. Season record: 15-13-2. Lock of the Week: 1-2.
Lock of the Week: Texas -2.5 at Oklahoma State. I hate giving points on the road, but the home team has failed to cover 5 straight times in this matchup. Texas has also played very well historically in Stillwater, although they lost the last two in Austin to the Cowboys. Texas just seems like the better team in 2012 and wants to show any remaining doubters that they are back...Texas 38, Oklahoma State 31.
Scoreboard Battle of the Week I: West Virginia -11 vs Baylor. The tempo of this game should be crazy, with close to 200 plays run. This is also West Virginia's first Big 12 game. The Mountaineers got me a week ago, but this one is about Baylor being 0-3 ATS in their last three road games...West Virginia 52, Baylor 35.
Scoreboard Battle of the Week II: Toledo +1.5 at Western Michigan. Last year, these teams ping-ponged their way to a 66-63 final. I don't expect quite the same result, especially with Alex Carder out for Western Michigan. Toledo's defense has struggled against the pass, but without Carder to take advantage, the Rockets will have enough offense to pull the upset...Toledo 45, Western Michigan 38.
Jabesblog Darling Pick of the Week: Louisiana-Monroe -20 at Tulane. I know this is crazy, but I am just doing this for fun. Giving 20 on the road with ULM? Of course I am!! The Green Wave can't score and are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games. After Arkansas, Auburn and Baylor, Tulane is going to seem like a JV team...Louisiana-Monroe 42, Tulane 13.
Other Games:
NC State +2.5 at Miami, FL. The Wolfpack defense has gotten their legs and I am trying not to be fooled by Miami's big victory against Georgia Tech last week. The Hurricane defense is susceptible and I expect NC State to contain Miami...NC State 27, Miami 19.
Minnesota +7 at Iowa. I have gone back and forth on this one, as the Gophers traditionally struggle in Iowa City, despite winning the last two years in this match-up (both at Minnesota). Momentum points all toward the Gophers and if Iowa is going to steal some of that back, I think it will take a last second play to do it. I don't expect a lot of points Saturday and I am going to make the Hawkeyes prove to me they are a better team...Minnesota 23, Iowa 20.
Cincinnati +6.5 vs Virginia Tech. History works against the Bearcats in the match-up, but I think Virginia Tech is getting some benefit of the doubt in Las Vegas and the college football world is slow on Cincinnati. I think the Bearcats can win this game outright...Cincinnati 21, Virginia Tech 19.
Louisiana Tech -3.5 at Virginia. I am trying to ignore the WAC visiting ACC aspect of this match-up. The Bulldogs are not your normal WAC team and are a very good road team. Tech is 9-1 ATS on their last 10 and 15-3 ATS in their last 18 roadies. I am guessing they are usually not favored in ACC country, but in Colby Cameron I believe...Louisiana Tech 40, Virginia 28.
Florida State -17 at South Florida. I know this one seems like a trap coming off the big win against Clemson and given South Florida's struggles. I really think Florida State is in the class of Alabama and LSU and in that case, most games aren't close...Florida State 51, South Florida 17.
Washington State +30.5 vs Oregon. The Ducks have not been on the road in a really long time and after their defense made a statement last week, a natural letdown would seem to be on the horizon. Oregon 49, Washington State 24.
Oregon State +2.5 at Arizona. The numbers all slant toward the Beavers, who are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 meetings with the Wildcats. Oregon State is also good on the road and proved that last week at UCLA. The number don't lie...Oregon State 27, Arizona 24.
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Friday, September 28, 2012
Thursday, September 27, 2012
College Football 2012 - Week 5 Preview
Each week, I take a look at the week ahead, including games, upsets and players to watch for. This week, I am adding a guide to the best games of the week.
Big 10
What I am watching: After a lackluster non-conference season, which teams get off to a good start in the conference season and set the tone for what could be a wild, should be an open and might even be a surprising run to Indianapolis. How will Michigan State's offense respond in a big opener at home against unbeaten Ohio State? Can Braxton Miller be contained by the best defense he has faced all season? Will Nebraska's running game continue to run roughshod over Wisconsin and establish Nebraska as the team to beat? Or will Wisconsin's offense come around in time to make the 2-time defending champs a factor with an upset in Lincoln? Can Northwestern and Minnesota continue to ride the momentum of the non-conference season and be taken seriously in the conference race? It all gets started this week.
Upset alert: Minnesota over Iowa. I don't see the Buckeyes winning in East Lansing as much of an upset (although it qualifies), so I will put the Hawkeyes on upset alert. How Iowa responds to last week's meltdown will show a lot about this team and coaching staff. Minnesota has already shown some moxie by surviving an injury to their quarterback, but can they continue their surprising play on the road in a tough venue. Last week: Louisiana Tech over Illinois (should have been Louisiana Tech over Illinois or Central Michigan over Iowa).
Player on the spot: Taylor Martinez, QB, Nebraska. Nebraska wants revenge for their 48-17 embarrassment at Wisconsin in their first ever Big 10 game. Martinez did not play well last year in Madison and a series of interceptions by Martinez changed the game a year ago. The Martinez of 2012 looks like a different player and Cornhusker fans hope last year does not repeat itself Saturday night. Last week: Max Shortell, QB, Minnesota - 16-30, 231 yards, 0 TD, 0 Int in a 17-10 win over Syracuse.
ACC
What I am watching: Now that Florida State has wrapped up the conference and Clemson appears to be the second best team, who will emerge behind them? North Carolina State and Miami play Saturday with the winner staking claim to one of the spots right behind the top. Virginia Tech also tries to stay in the conversation with a tough non-conference road game at Cincinnati.
Upset alert: Cincinnati over Virginia Tech. The Hokies running game has been slow to get going and an experienced and deep Cincinnati defense is going to get after Logan Thomas. If the Bearcats protect the ball and run the ball on Tech, a second loss to a Big East school could be in the making. Last week: Army over Wake Forest (should have been Miami over Georgia Tech)
Player on the spot: Mike Glennon, QB, NC State. I am putting the Wolfpack in the spotlight two weeks in a row, this time with their senior quarterback who needs to play well in a pivotal conference road game. After a season opening loss where Glennon threw 4 interceptions, he has responded with 5 TD's and 0 Int's over the last three weeks. That trend needs to continue for the Wolfpack to prevail Saturday. Last week: NC State rushing defense - The Citadel had 199 yards rushing on 41 carries and just 226 yards total offence in a 52-14 NC State victory.
SEC
What I am watching: Actually a pretty light schedule for the SEC this week (the calm before the storm), with Georgia having the toughest game of the heavyweights with Tennessee coming to town. These is also the continuing saga of Arkansas, who visits newbie Texas A&M and tries to save a season that is already a disappointment.
Upset alert: None. The 5 favored teams in the SEC should all win this week. UCF is actually favored over Missouri, so the Tigers do not qualify for the alert. Last week: Rutgers over Arkansas (should have been Rutgers over Arkansas)
Player on the spot: Tyler Bray, QB, Tennessee. If the SEC race is going to get a wrench thrown in it, a player like Bray is the one to do it. Thought by many as the best QB in the conference, Bray can prove that by topping Aaron Murray and Georgia on the Dawgs home field. In order to do so, Bray is going to have to play one of the best games of his career and get his myriad of weapons going against a tough, but not impenetrable Georgia D. Last week: Zac Stacy, RB, Vanderbilt - 12 carries for 83 yards in a 48-3 loss to Georgia.
Big 12
What I am watching: The scoreboard in Morgantown. I am sure by writing this Baylor's visit to West Virginia Saturday will result in a 10-6 final. I expect both teams over 30 and potentially both over 40. We get to see Geno Smith and Nick Florence on display. After recovering from that game, come back at night and see if Texas is for real and can win in Stillwater against an Oklahoma State team that is still a bit of a mystery. The Texas defense has not been overly sharp, so the scoreboard could get going in this one as well.
Upset alert: Oklahoma State over Texas. A home underdog who just happens to be the defending league champion is a dangerous proposition. The Cowboys have the Arizona eyesore working against them, but that game was directly affected by the turnover battle, something Oklahoma State has thrived at in recent years. If Texas does not protect the ball, the Big 12 race will have another curve by Saturday's end. Last week: Louisiana-Monroe over Baylor and Kansas State over Oklahoma (should have been Kansas State over Oklahoma).
Unit on the spot: Iowa State defense. There is a match-up of two undefeated teams in Ames on Saturday that bears mention. Texas Tech brings its passing attack to town and how a very good Cyclone defense deals with Seth Doege & Co. will go a long way in determining which of these teams will keep its bowl chances alive for 2012. Last week: Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma - 28-43, 298 yards, 1 TD, 1 Int in a 24-19 loss to Kansas State.
PAC-12
What I am watching: Is it separation week in the PAC-12 or just a big muddy mess? Consensus says Oregon is the best team in the PAC-12 and USC is really good, but more flawed than thought. 3 games in the PAC-12 will tell us a story this week. It starts Thursday with Stanford travelling to Washington. Conventional wisdom says Stanford continues their post-Luck roll, but a road game in Seattle is never easy. Arizona State travels to Cal and Oregon State to Arizona in the other pivotal games. If the Sun Devils and Beavers prevail, they will separate themselves into the upper tier of the conference and leave Arizona and Cal scrapping for best of the lower tier. If Arizona and Cal hold home field, the PAC-12 gets messy.
Upset alert: Arizona State at California. The Sun Devils enter as underdogs, but their early season play dictates they are a better team right now than the Golden Bears. If they can avoid turnovers, their offense should be too much to handle for Cal on Saturday. Last week: Oregon State over UCLA (should have been Oregon State over UCLA or Colorado over Washington State).
Player on the spot: Matt Scott, QB, Arizona. The Oregon State defense has shut down the Wisconsin and UCLA running games, so it might be Scott who has to engineer a home victory over the Beavers. After having a 7-1 TD/Int mark through 3 weeks, Scott threw 3 interceptions in being shutout by Oregon a week ago. He needs to rebound in a big way this week for Arizona. Last week: Matt Barkley, QB, USC - 22-34, 192 yards, 2 TD, 2 Int in a 27-9 victory over Cal.
Big East
What I am watching: Is Cincinnati for real and does South Florida continue its tailspin? Cincinnati has an opportunity to show they are to be mentioned with Lousiville and Rutgers if they can beat Virginia Tech on Saturday. A close loss could also validate them, but Pittsburgh dismantled the Hokies a few weeks ago. South Florida is coming off losses to Rutgers and Ball State and now hosts Florida State. This game could either stay close or the Bulls could be in for an ugly one if they are not up for the Seminole challenge.
Upset alert: I just don't see Louisville losing at Southern Miss or UConn to Buffalo, so the Big East is off upset alert this week. Last week: Western Michigan over Connecticut (should have been Western Michigan over Connecticut or Ball State over South Florida).
Player in the spotlight: Munchie Legaux, QB, Cincinnati. The dual threat quarterback will be the key to Cincinnati upsetting Virginia Tech this week. The Hokies can be run on and the added dimension of Legaux with RB George Wynn could cause Virginia Tech problems. He will have to make plays with his arm too, but a couple big plays with his legs might make the difference. Last week: B.J. Daniels, QB, South Florida - 19-30, 312 yards, 3 TD, 2 Int, 75 yards rushing in a 31-27 loss to Ball State.
Non-BCS Conferences
What I am watching: I am always watching for how many victories the Non-BCS schools can accumulate against the BCS conferences. Ohio, Nevada, Colorado State, Utah State, Louisiana-Monroe, Rice, Western Kentucky, Ball State, Fresno State, Central Michigan, Western Michigan, Northern Illinois, Ball State(again) and Louisiana Tech have done it the first four weeks with the victories over Penn State, California, Colorado, Utah, Arkansas, Kansas, Kentucky, Indiana, Colorado(again), Iowa, Connecticut, Kansas(again), South Florida and Illinois respectively. Last season the total was 15. The chances are dwindling as the non-conference season slows, but which games this week might add to the current 14? Let's watch these 3...Missouri at UCF, Marshall at Purdue, and Louisiana Tech at Virginia.
Upset alert: Rice over Houston. In a bitter battle of two schools in the same town anything can happen. Rice has actually played well in 2012 well Houston, well, they have not. The scoreboard should be jumping here too and if Taylor McHargue is healthy enough to play, Rice can definitely pull the upset. Last week: Hawaii over Nevada (yuck, should have been San Jose State over San Diego State, UNLV over Air Force or New Mexico over New Mexico State).
Players on the spot: Colby Cameron, QB, Louisiana Tech. A name many have not heard of leads an undefeated Bulldogs team at Virginia as they try to knock off a BCS school two weeks in a row. Cameron has 913 yards and 11 TD's in 3 games this season and looks to take advantage of an underachieving Virginia team this week. Last week: Derek Carr, QB and Robbie Rouse, RB, Fresno State - 366 yards and 2 TD's combined in a 27-26 loss to Tulsa.
Week 5 Game Guide
Stanford at Washington, Thursday, 9 PM EST, ESPN
Baylor at West Virginia, Saturday, 12 PM EST, FX
NC State at Miami, FL, Saturday, 12 PM EST, ESPNU
Tennessee at Georgia, Saturday, 3:30 PM, EST, CBS
Ohio State at Michigan State, Saturday, 3:30 PM EST, ABC
Virginia Tech at Cincinnati, Saturday, 3:30 PM EST, ESPNU
Arizona State at Cal, Saturday, 4 PM EST, FX
Texas at Oklahoma State, Saturday, 7:50 PM EST, FOX
Wisconsin at Nebraska, Saturday, 8 PM EST, ABC
Oregon State at Arizona, Saturday, 10 PM EST, PAC-12 Network
Big 10
What I am watching: After a lackluster non-conference season, which teams get off to a good start in the conference season and set the tone for what could be a wild, should be an open and might even be a surprising run to Indianapolis. How will Michigan State's offense respond in a big opener at home against unbeaten Ohio State? Can Braxton Miller be contained by the best defense he has faced all season? Will Nebraska's running game continue to run roughshod over Wisconsin and establish Nebraska as the team to beat? Or will Wisconsin's offense come around in time to make the 2-time defending champs a factor with an upset in Lincoln? Can Northwestern and Minnesota continue to ride the momentum of the non-conference season and be taken seriously in the conference race? It all gets started this week.
Upset alert: Minnesota over Iowa. I don't see the Buckeyes winning in East Lansing as much of an upset (although it qualifies), so I will put the Hawkeyes on upset alert. How Iowa responds to last week's meltdown will show a lot about this team and coaching staff. Minnesota has already shown some moxie by surviving an injury to their quarterback, but can they continue their surprising play on the road in a tough venue. Last week: Louisiana Tech over Illinois (should have been Louisiana Tech over Illinois or Central Michigan over Iowa).
Player on the spot: Taylor Martinez, QB, Nebraska. Nebraska wants revenge for their 48-17 embarrassment at Wisconsin in their first ever Big 10 game. Martinez did not play well last year in Madison and a series of interceptions by Martinez changed the game a year ago. The Martinez of 2012 looks like a different player and Cornhusker fans hope last year does not repeat itself Saturday night. Last week: Max Shortell, QB, Minnesota - 16-30, 231 yards, 0 TD, 0 Int in a 17-10 win over Syracuse.
ACC
What I am watching: Now that Florida State has wrapped up the conference and Clemson appears to be the second best team, who will emerge behind them? North Carolina State and Miami play Saturday with the winner staking claim to one of the spots right behind the top. Virginia Tech also tries to stay in the conversation with a tough non-conference road game at Cincinnati.
Upset alert: Cincinnati over Virginia Tech. The Hokies running game has been slow to get going and an experienced and deep Cincinnati defense is going to get after Logan Thomas. If the Bearcats protect the ball and run the ball on Tech, a second loss to a Big East school could be in the making. Last week: Army over Wake Forest (should have been Miami over Georgia Tech)
Player on the spot: Mike Glennon, QB, NC State. I am putting the Wolfpack in the spotlight two weeks in a row, this time with their senior quarterback who needs to play well in a pivotal conference road game. After a season opening loss where Glennon threw 4 interceptions, he has responded with 5 TD's and 0 Int's over the last three weeks. That trend needs to continue for the Wolfpack to prevail Saturday. Last week: NC State rushing defense - The Citadel had 199 yards rushing on 41 carries and just 226 yards total offence in a 52-14 NC State victory.
SEC
What I am watching: Actually a pretty light schedule for the SEC this week (the calm before the storm), with Georgia having the toughest game of the heavyweights with Tennessee coming to town. These is also the continuing saga of Arkansas, who visits newbie Texas A&M and tries to save a season that is already a disappointment.
Upset alert: None. The 5 favored teams in the SEC should all win this week. UCF is actually favored over Missouri, so the Tigers do not qualify for the alert. Last week: Rutgers over Arkansas (should have been Rutgers over Arkansas)
Player on the spot: Tyler Bray, QB, Tennessee. If the SEC race is going to get a wrench thrown in it, a player like Bray is the one to do it. Thought by many as the best QB in the conference, Bray can prove that by topping Aaron Murray and Georgia on the Dawgs home field. In order to do so, Bray is going to have to play one of the best games of his career and get his myriad of weapons going against a tough, but not impenetrable Georgia D. Last week: Zac Stacy, RB, Vanderbilt - 12 carries for 83 yards in a 48-3 loss to Georgia.
Big 12
What I am watching: The scoreboard in Morgantown. I am sure by writing this Baylor's visit to West Virginia Saturday will result in a 10-6 final. I expect both teams over 30 and potentially both over 40. We get to see Geno Smith and Nick Florence on display. After recovering from that game, come back at night and see if Texas is for real and can win in Stillwater against an Oklahoma State team that is still a bit of a mystery. The Texas defense has not been overly sharp, so the scoreboard could get going in this one as well.
Upset alert: Oklahoma State over Texas. A home underdog who just happens to be the defending league champion is a dangerous proposition. The Cowboys have the Arizona eyesore working against them, but that game was directly affected by the turnover battle, something Oklahoma State has thrived at in recent years. If Texas does not protect the ball, the Big 12 race will have another curve by Saturday's end. Last week: Louisiana-Monroe over Baylor and Kansas State over Oklahoma (should have been Kansas State over Oklahoma).
Unit on the spot: Iowa State defense. There is a match-up of two undefeated teams in Ames on Saturday that bears mention. Texas Tech brings its passing attack to town and how a very good Cyclone defense deals with Seth Doege & Co. will go a long way in determining which of these teams will keep its bowl chances alive for 2012. Last week: Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma - 28-43, 298 yards, 1 TD, 1 Int in a 24-19 loss to Kansas State.
PAC-12
What I am watching: Is it separation week in the PAC-12 or just a big muddy mess? Consensus says Oregon is the best team in the PAC-12 and USC is really good, but more flawed than thought. 3 games in the PAC-12 will tell us a story this week. It starts Thursday with Stanford travelling to Washington. Conventional wisdom says Stanford continues their post-Luck roll, but a road game in Seattle is never easy. Arizona State travels to Cal and Oregon State to Arizona in the other pivotal games. If the Sun Devils and Beavers prevail, they will separate themselves into the upper tier of the conference and leave Arizona and Cal scrapping for best of the lower tier. If Arizona and Cal hold home field, the PAC-12 gets messy.
Upset alert: Arizona State at California. The Sun Devils enter as underdogs, but their early season play dictates they are a better team right now than the Golden Bears. If they can avoid turnovers, their offense should be too much to handle for Cal on Saturday. Last week: Oregon State over UCLA (should have been Oregon State over UCLA or Colorado over Washington State).
Player on the spot: Matt Scott, QB, Arizona. The Oregon State defense has shut down the Wisconsin and UCLA running games, so it might be Scott who has to engineer a home victory over the Beavers. After having a 7-1 TD/Int mark through 3 weeks, Scott threw 3 interceptions in being shutout by Oregon a week ago. He needs to rebound in a big way this week for Arizona. Last week: Matt Barkley, QB, USC - 22-34, 192 yards, 2 TD, 2 Int in a 27-9 victory over Cal.
Big East
What I am watching: Is Cincinnati for real and does South Florida continue its tailspin? Cincinnati has an opportunity to show they are to be mentioned with Lousiville and Rutgers if they can beat Virginia Tech on Saturday. A close loss could also validate them, but Pittsburgh dismantled the Hokies a few weeks ago. South Florida is coming off losses to Rutgers and Ball State and now hosts Florida State. This game could either stay close or the Bulls could be in for an ugly one if they are not up for the Seminole challenge.
Upset alert: I just don't see Louisville losing at Southern Miss or UConn to Buffalo, so the Big East is off upset alert this week. Last week: Western Michigan over Connecticut (should have been Western Michigan over Connecticut or Ball State over South Florida).
Player in the spotlight: Munchie Legaux, QB, Cincinnati. The dual threat quarterback will be the key to Cincinnati upsetting Virginia Tech this week. The Hokies can be run on and the added dimension of Legaux with RB George Wynn could cause Virginia Tech problems. He will have to make plays with his arm too, but a couple big plays with his legs might make the difference. Last week: B.J. Daniels, QB, South Florida - 19-30, 312 yards, 3 TD, 2 Int, 75 yards rushing in a 31-27 loss to Ball State.
Non-BCS Conferences
What I am watching: I am always watching for how many victories the Non-BCS schools can accumulate against the BCS conferences. Ohio, Nevada, Colorado State, Utah State, Louisiana-Monroe, Rice, Western Kentucky, Ball State, Fresno State, Central Michigan, Western Michigan, Northern Illinois, Ball State(again) and Louisiana Tech have done it the first four weeks with the victories over Penn State, California, Colorado, Utah, Arkansas, Kansas, Kentucky, Indiana, Colorado(again), Iowa, Connecticut, Kansas(again), South Florida and Illinois respectively. Last season the total was 15. The chances are dwindling as the non-conference season slows, but which games this week might add to the current 14? Let's watch these 3...Missouri at UCF, Marshall at Purdue, and Louisiana Tech at Virginia.
Upset alert: Rice over Houston. In a bitter battle of two schools in the same town anything can happen. Rice has actually played well in 2012 well Houston, well, they have not. The scoreboard should be jumping here too and if Taylor McHargue is healthy enough to play, Rice can definitely pull the upset. Last week: Hawaii over Nevada (yuck, should have been San Jose State over San Diego State, UNLV over Air Force or New Mexico over New Mexico State).
Players on the spot: Colby Cameron, QB, Louisiana Tech. A name many have not heard of leads an undefeated Bulldogs team at Virginia as they try to knock off a BCS school two weeks in a row. Cameron has 913 yards and 11 TD's in 3 games this season and looks to take advantage of an underachieving Virginia team this week. Last week: Derek Carr, QB and Robbie Rouse, RB, Fresno State - 366 yards and 2 TD's combined in a 27-26 loss to Tulsa.
Week 5 Game Guide
Stanford at Washington, Thursday, 9 PM EST, ESPN
Baylor at West Virginia, Saturday, 12 PM EST, FX
NC State at Miami, FL, Saturday, 12 PM EST, ESPNU
Tennessee at Georgia, Saturday, 3:30 PM, EST, CBS
Ohio State at Michigan State, Saturday, 3:30 PM EST, ABC
Virginia Tech at Cincinnati, Saturday, 3:30 PM EST, ESPNU
Arizona State at Cal, Saturday, 4 PM EST, FX
Texas at Oklahoma State, Saturday, 7:50 PM EST, FOX
Wisconsin at Nebraska, Saturday, 8 PM EST, ABC
Oregon State at Arizona, Saturday, 10 PM EST, PAC-12 Network
Tuesday, September 25, 2012
College Football 2012 - Updated Jabesblog Bowl Projections
New Mexico Bowl - Oregon State Beavers vs San Diego State Aztecs
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl - Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs Toledo Rockets
Poinsettia Bowl - Nevada Wolfpack vs BYU Cougars
Beef O'Brady's Bowl - Ball State Cardinals vs East Carolina Pirates
New Orleans Bowl - Marshall Thundering Herd vs Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
Las Vegas Bowl - Boise State Broncos vs Arizona Wildcats
Hawaii Bowl - Fresno State Bulldogs vs Utah State Aggies
Little Caesars Bowl - Ohio Bobcats vs Minnesota Golden Gophers
Military Bowl - Western Michigan Broncos vs Virginia Cavaliers
Belk Bowl - Miami Hurricanes vs Cincinnati Bearcats
Holiday Bowl - UCLA Bruins vs Baylor Bears
Russell Athletic Bowl - Louisville Cardinals vs Virginia Tech Hokies
Independence Bowl - Missouri Tigers vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Texas Bowl - Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Northwestern Wildcats
Armed Forces Bowl - SMU Mustangs vs Air Force Falcons
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl - Washington Huskies vs San Jose State Spartans
Alamo Bowl - USC Trojans vs Kansas State Wildcats
Pinstripe Bowl - Pittsburgh Panthers vs Texas Tech Red Raiders
Music City Bowl - Georgia Tech YellowJackets vs Arkansas Razorbacks
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl - TCU Horned Frogs vs Purdue Boilermakers
Sun Bowl - Arizona State Sun Devils vs North Carolina State Wolfpack
Liberty Bowl - Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Mississippi State Tigers
Chick-Fil-A Bowl - Texas A&M Aggies vs Clemson Tigers
Ticket City Bowl - Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns vs Iowa Hawkeyes
Capital One Bowl - Michigan State Spartans vs LSU Tigers
Outback Bowl - Michigan Wolverines vs Florida Gators
Gator Bowl - Tennessee Volunteers vs Wisconsin Badgers
Cotton Bowl - South Carolina Gamecocks vs Oklahoma Sooners
BBVA Compass Bowl - South Florida Bulls vs Vanderbilt Commodores
GoDaddy Bowl - Northern Illinois Huskies vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Rose Bowl - Stanford Cardinal vs Nebraska Cornhuskers
Orange Bowl - Florida State Seminoles vs Rutgers Scarlett Knights
Fiesta Bowl - West Virginia Mountaineers vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Sugar Bowl - Alabama Crimson Tide vs Texas Longhorns
BCS National Championship - Oregon Ducks vs Georgia Bulldogs
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl - Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs Toledo Rockets
Poinsettia Bowl - Nevada Wolfpack vs BYU Cougars
Beef O'Brady's Bowl - Ball State Cardinals vs East Carolina Pirates
New Orleans Bowl - Marshall Thundering Herd vs Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
Las Vegas Bowl - Boise State Broncos vs Arizona Wildcats
Hawaii Bowl - Fresno State Bulldogs vs Utah State Aggies
Little Caesars Bowl - Ohio Bobcats vs Minnesota Golden Gophers
Military Bowl - Western Michigan Broncos vs Virginia Cavaliers
Belk Bowl - Miami Hurricanes vs Cincinnati Bearcats
Holiday Bowl - UCLA Bruins vs Baylor Bears
Russell Athletic Bowl - Louisville Cardinals vs Virginia Tech Hokies
Independence Bowl - Missouri Tigers vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Texas Bowl - Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Northwestern Wildcats
Armed Forces Bowl - SMU Mustangs vs Air Force Falcons
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl - Washington Huskies vs San Jose State Spartans
Alamo Bowl - USC Trojans vs Kansas State Wildcats
Pinstripe Bowl - Pittsburgh Panthers vs Texas Tech Red Raiders
Music City Bowl - Georgia Tech YellowJackets vs Arkansas Razorbacks
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl - TCU Horned Frogs vs Purdue Boilermakers
Sun Bowl - Arizona State Sun Devils vs North Carolina State Wolfpack
Liberty Bowl - Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Mississippi State Tigers
Chick-Fil-A Bowl - Texas A&M Aggies vs Clemson Tigers
Ticket City Bowl - Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns vs Iowa Hawkeyes
Capital One Bowl - Michigan State Spartans vs LSU Tigers
Outback Bowl - Michigan Wolverines vs Florida Gators
Gator Bowl - Tennessee Volunteers vs Wisconsin Badgers
Cotton Bowl - South Carolina Gamecocks vs Oklahoma Sooners
BBVA Compass Bowl - South Florida Bulls vs Vanderbilt Commodores
GoDaddy Bowl - Northern Illinois Huskies vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Rose Bowl - Stanford Cardinal vs Nebraska Cornhuskers
Orange Bowl - Florida State Seminoles vs Rutgers Scarlett Knights
Fiesta Bowl - West Virginia Mountaineers vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Sugar Bowl - Alabama Crimson Tide vs Texas Longhorns
BCS National Championship - Oregon Ducks vs Georgia Bulldogs
College Football 2012 - Week 4 Recap
PAC-12
Predominant thought: They are playing some pretty good football in the State of Oregon. The Ducks flexed some defensive muscle in dispatching a hot Arizona team and cementing themselves as the team to beat in the PAC-12. For the Beavers its two games and two upsets over ranked teams. For Oregon it was expected, but the rise of Oregon State has been a surprise.
3 Quick hits:
1. Oregon Ducks (BCS National Title Game)
2. Stanford Cardinal (Rose Bowl)
3. USC Trojans (Alamo Bowl)
4. UCLA Bruins (Holiday Bowl)
5. Arizona State Sun Devils (Sun Bowl)
6. Washington Huskies (Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl)
7. Oregon State Beavers (New Mexico Bowl)
8. Arizona Wildcats (Las Vegas Bowl)
9. Utah Utes
10. California Golden Bears
11. Washington State Cougars
12. Colorado Buffaloes
Big 10
Predominant thought: The good news is that one of these teams gets to play in the Rose Bowl. The bad news is that with all the tie-ins against the SEC, this is going to be an ugly bowl season for the Big 10 if things don't change. I usually am a Big 10 defender, but I have nothing to defend in 2012. Maybe the Penn State karma has rubbed off on the whole league. Thank goodness for Northwestern and Minnesota.
3 Quick hits:
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (Probation Bowl)
2. Nebraska Cornhuskers (Rose Bowl)
3. Michigan State Spartans (Capital One Bowl)
4. Michigan Wolverines (Outback Bowl)
5. Wisconsin Badgers (Gator Bowl)
6. Northwestern Wildcats (Texas Bowl)
7. Purdue Boilermakers (Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl)
8. Iowa Hawkeyes (TicketCity Bowl)
9. Minnesota Golden Gophers (Little Caesars Bowl)
10. Illinois Fighting Illini
11. Penn State Nittany Lions
12. Indiana Hoosiers
SEC
Predominant thought: Keep in mind as Alabama rolls through the SEC that they do not play Georgia, South Carolina or Florida in crossover games this year. Similarly, Georgia avoids Alabama, LSU and Mississippi State. Yes, the middle of the SEC is better than other leagues, but tell me an undefeated Big 12 team will not have beaten a stronger group of teams than Alabama or Georgia.
3 Quick hits:
1. Georgia Bulldogs (BCS National Title Game)
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (Sugar Bowl)
3. LSU Tigers(Capital One Bowl)
4. South Carolina Gamecocks (Cotton Bowl)
5. Florida Gators (Outback Bowl)
6. Tennessee Volunteers (Gator Bowl)
7. Texas A&M Aggies (Chick Fil-A Bowl)
8. Mississippi State Bulldogs (Liberty Bowl)
9. Arkansas Razorbacks (Music City Bowl)
10. Missouri Tigers (Independence Bowl)
11. Vanderbilt Commodores (BBVA Compass Bowl)
12. Auburn Tigers
13. Ole Miss Rebels
14. Kentucky Wildcats
Big 12
Predominant thought: Kansas State's win over Oklahoma is just the start of a wild ride in the Big 12. This conference goes 9-deep and will have 4 great match-ups each week. Teams will look forward to the Kansas bye on the schedule.
3 Quick hits:
1. West Virginia Mountaineers (Fiesta Bowl)
2. Texas Longhorns (Sugar Bowl)
3. Kansas State Wildcats (Alamo Bowl)
4. Oklahoma Sooners (Cotton Bowl)
5. TCU Horned Frogs (Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl)
6. Baylor Bears (Holiday Bowl)
7. Oklahoma State Cowboys (Texas Bowl)
8. Texas Tech Red Raiders (Pinstripe Bowl)
9. Iowa State Cyclones
10. Kansas Jayhawks
ACC
Predominant thought: Meet your 2012 ACC Champions the Florida State Seminoles. This team might lose one game, but they are too good to lose any more than that (injuries not withstanding).
3 Quick hits:
1. Florida State Seminoles (Orange Bowl)
2. Clemson Tigers (Chick Fil-A Bowl)
3. Virginia Tech Hokies (Russell Athletic Bowl)
4. North Carolina State Wolfpack (Sun Bowl)
5. Miami Hurricanes (Belk Bowl)
6. Georgia Tech Yellowjackets (Music City Bowl)
7. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (Independence Bowl)
8. North Carolina Tar Heels (Probation Bowl)
9. Virginia Cavaliers (Military Bowl)
10. Maryland Terrapins
11. Duke Blue Devils
12. Boston College Eagles
Big East
Predominant thought: And then there were three contenders? South Florida appears fraudulent again in 2012, so Rutgers, Louisville and Cincinnati are the remaining contenders. Maybe Pitt can get back in this discussion.
Big East Reset:
1. Rutgers Scarlett Knights (Orange Bowl)
2. Louisville Cardinals (Russell Athletic Bowl)
3. Cincinnati Bearcats (Belk Bowl)
4. South Florida Bulls (BBVA Compass Bowl)
5. Pittsburgh Panthers (Pinstripe Bowl)
6. Connecticut Huskies
7. Syracuse Orange
8. Temple Owls
(currently not filling Beef O'Brady's Bowl slot)
Other Conferences/Independents
Predominant thought: I can't keep Notre Dame out of the BCS any longer. The Irish defense is making up for quarterback shortcomings. Their ability to maintain this will be the difference from here on out. Elsewhere, Louisiana Tech is really good and if Boise State finds an offense, they could run the table. BYU failed their test miserably and Conference-USA is a disaster.
Other Conferences/Independents Reset:
1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Fiesta Bowl)
2. Ohio Bobcats (Little Caesars Bowl)
3. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl)
4. Boise State Broncos (Las Vegas Bowl)
5. BYU Cougars (Poinsettia Bowl)
6. Nevada Wolfpack (Poinsettia Bowl)
7. Utah State Aggies (Hawaii Bowl**)
8. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (Liberty Bowl)
9. Northern Illinois Huskies (GoDaddy.com Bowl)
10. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (New Orleans Bowl)
Other Projected Bowl Eligible Teams:
SMU Mustangs (Armed Forces Bowl)
Marshall Thundering Herd (New Orleans Bowl)
East Carolina Pirates (Beef O'Brady's Bowl)
Western Michigan Broncos (Military Bowl**)
Toledo Rockets (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl)
Ball State Cardinals (Beef O'Brady's Bowl**)
Fresno State Bulldogs (Hawaii Bowl)
San Diego State Aztecs (New Mexico Bowl)
Air Force Falcons (Armed Forces Bowl)
Louisiana Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (TicketCity Bowl**)
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (GoDaddy.com Bowl)
San Jose State Spartans (Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl**)
Predominant thought: They are playing some pretty good football in the State of Oregon. The Ducks flexed some defensive muscle in dispatching a hot Arizona team and cementing themselves as the team to beat in the PAC-12. For the Beavers its two games and two upsets over ranked teams. For Oregon it was expected, but the rise of Oregon State has been a surprise.
3 Quick hits:
- My apologies to Colorado for putting an 0-12 season in ink after 3 weeks. They showed some heart in rallying from behind to beat Washington State. Mike Leach has his work cut-out for him as well. Turning around a culture of losing is hard work.
- It will be interesting to see if USC's offense can sleepwalk through an entire season. Aren't there supposed to be like 28 first round draft picks on this offense? Wake up Robert Woods, the 2012 season has started and teams have figured out you are not very fast.
- Arizona State continues to impress. Maybe this Todd Graham guy can coach despite his fear of commitment. A close loss at Missouri isn't terrible (although the Tigers are desperately mediocre in the SEC world) and this weeks thrashing of Utah is impressive because that doesn't usually happen to the Utes.
1. Oregon Ducks (BCS National Title Game)
2. Stanford Cardinal (Rose Bowl)
3. USC Trojans (Alamo Bowl)
4. UCLA Bruins (Holiday Bowl)
5. Arizona State Sun Devils (Sun Bowl)
6. Washington Huskies (Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl)
7. Oregon State Beavers (New Mexico Bowl)
8. Arizona Wildcats (Las Vegas Bowl)
9. Utah Utes
10. California Golden Bears
11. Washington State Cougars
12. Colorado Buffaloes
Big 10
Predominant thought: The good news is that one of these teams gets to play in the Rose Bowl. The bad news is that with all the tie-ins against the SEC, this is going to be an ugly bowl season for the Big 10 if things don't change. I usually am a Big 10 defender, but I have nothing to defend in 2012. Maybe the Penn State karma has rubbed off on the whole league. Thank goodness for Northwestern and Minnesota.
3 Quick hits:
- What is going on with Iowa? The Hawkeyes are in danger of missing out on the Big 10 bowl-slaughter, now needing a 4-4 conference record to do this. The crossover schedule is workable, but not if the Hawkeyes are just plain bad.
- If the performances of Illinois and Indiana against legitimate competition are any indication, the Leaders Division berth in Indianapolis is going to be decided by Purdue and Wisconsin and could be won with a 4-4 record. How is that for another black-eye?
- Notre Dame is 3-0 in the Big 10. Maybe they should play in the Rose Bowl this year.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (Probation Bowl)
2. Nebraska Cornhuskers (Rose Bowl)
3. Michigan State Spartans (Capital One Bowl)
4. Michigan Wolverines (Outback Bowl)
5. Wisconsin Badgers (Gator Bowl)
6. Northwestern Wildcats (Texas Bowl)
7. Purdue Boilermakers (Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl)
8. Iowa Hawkeyes (TicketCity Bowl)
9. Minnesota Golden Gophers (Little Caesars Bowl)
10. Illinois Fighting Illini
11. Penn State Nittany Lions
12. Indiana Hoosiers
SEC
Predominant thought: Keep in mind as Alabama rolls through the SEC that they do not play Georgia, South Carolina or Florida in crossover games this year. Similarly, Georgia avoids Alabama, LSU and Mississippi State. Yes, the middle of the SEC is better than other leagues, but tell me an undefeated Big 12 team will not have beaten a stronger group of teams than Alabama or Georgia.
3 Quick hits:
- Have you heard of Johnny Manziel yet? You will soon.
- Arkansas, unfortunately I don't think you have hit rock bottom yet. I will let you know when you do.
- Speaking of dangerous teams...with all the issues South Carolina keeps having at quarterback, the team continues to chug along below the radar. The spotlight will come as the SEC games begin, but the ol' ball coach has his team right where he wants them, except maybe health at quarterback.
1. Georgia Bulldogs (BCS National Title Game)
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (Sugar Bowl)
3. LSU Tigers(Capital One Bowl)
4. South Carolina Gamecocks (Cotton Bowl)
5. Florida Gators (Outback Bowl)
6. Tennessee Volunteers (Gator Bowl)
7. Texas A&M Aggies (Chick Fil-A Bowl)
8. Mississippi State Bulldogs (Liberty Bowl)
9. Arkansas Razorbacks (Music City Bowl)
10. Missouri Tigers (Independence Bowl)
11. Vanderbilt Commodores (BBVA Compass Bowl)
12. Auburn Tigers
13. Ole Miss Rebels
14. Kentucky Wildcats
Big 12
Predominant thought: Kansas State's win over Oklahoma is just the start of a wild ride in the Big 12. This conference goes 9-deep and will have 4 great match-ups each week. Teams will look forward to the Kansas bye on the schedule.
3 Quick hits:
- Did Maryland provide a blueprint to slow down West Virginia or was it just an off week? I am still excited about the Mountaineers, but I also know this team lost 2 Big East games a year ago.
- Which team is most likely to fall in my current reset? Probably TCU if the offense does not find its stride.
- We will now find out how good Texas is. At Oklahoma State, vs West Virginia, at Oklahoma, vs Baylor. That is a four-week stretch the SEC would be proud of.
1. West Virginia Mountaineers (Fiesta Bowl)
2. Texas Longhorns (Sugar Bowl)
3. Kansas State Wildcats (Alamo Bowl)
4. Oklahoma Sooners (Cotton Bowl)
5. TCU Horned Frogs (Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl)
6. Baylor Bears (Holiday Bowl)
7. Oklahoma State Cowboys (Texas Bowl)
8. Texas Tech Red Raiders (Pinstripe Bowl)
9. Iowa State Cyclones
10. Kansas Jayhawks
ACC
Predominant thought: Meet your 2012 ACC Champions the Florida State Seminoles. This team might lose one game, but they are too good to lose any more than that (injuries not withstanding).
3 Quick hits:
- What is the deal with Georgia Tech? They can look so good at times, but with two ACC losses another mediocre season awaits.
- Kudos to Miami for being better than I thought. After Kansas State took them to the woodshed, the comeback against Georgia Tech would have seemed impossible.
- Oh by the way, Clemson is still a really good football team.
1. Florida State Seminoles (Orange Bowl)
2. Clemson Tigers (Chick Fil-A Bowl)
3. Virginia Tech Hokies (Russell Athletic Bowl)
4. North Carolina State Wolfpack (Sun Bowl)
5. Miami Hurricanes (Belk Bowl)
6. Georgia Tech Yellowjackets (Music City Bowl)
7. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (Independence Bowl)
8. North Carolina Tar Heels (Probation Bowl)
9. Virginia Cavaliers (Military Bowl)
10. Maryland Terrapins
11. Duke Blue Devils
12. Boston College Eagles
Big East
Predominant thought: And then there were three contenders? South Florida appears fraudulent again in 2012, so Rutgers, Louisville and Cincinnati are the remaining contenders. Maybe Pitt can get back in this discussion.
Big East Reset:
1. Rutgers Scarlett Knights (Orange Bowl)
2. Louisville Cardinals (Russell Athletic Bowl)
3. Cincinnati Bearcats (Belk Bowl)
4. South Florida Bulls (BBVA Compass Bowl)
5. Pittsburgh Panthers (Pinstripe Bowl)
6. Connecticut Huskies
7. Syracuse Orange
8. Temple Owls
(currently not filling Beef O'Brady's Bowl slot)
Other Conferences/Independents
Predominant thought: I can't keep Notre Dame out of the BCS any longer. The Irish defense is making up for quarterback shortcomings. Their ability to maintain this will be the difference from here on out. Elsewhere, Louisiana Tech is really good and if Boise State finds an offense, they could run the table. BYU failed their test miserably and Conference-USA is a disaster.
Other Conferences/Independents Reset:
1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Fiesta Bowl)
2. Ohio Bobcats (Little Caesars Bowl)
3. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl)
4. Boise State Broncos (Las Vegas Bowl)
5. BYU Cougars (Poinsettia Bowl)
6. Nevada Wolfpack (Poinsettia Bowl)
7. Utah State Aggies (Hawaii Bowl**)
8. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (Liberty Bowl)
9. Northern Illinois Huskies (GoDaddy.com Bowl)
10. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (New Orleans Bowl)
Other Projected Bowl Eligible Teams:
SMU Mustangs (Armed Forces Bowl)
Marshall Thundering Herd (New Orleans Bowl)
East Carolina Pirates (Beef O'Brady's Bowl)
Western Michigan Broncos (Military Bowl**)
Toledo Rockets (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl)
Ball State Cardinals (Beef O'Brady's Bowl**)
Fresno State Bulldogs (Hawaii Bowl)
San Diego State Aztecs (New Mexico Bowl)
Air Force Falcons (Armed Forces Bowl)
Louisiana Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (TicketCity Bowl**)
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (GoDaddy.com Bowl)
San Jose State Spartans (Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl**)
Thursday, September 20, 2012
College Football Week 4 - Jabesblog Picks
Instead of picking every game straight up this year, I thought I would go more Vegas-style and select certain games each week to pick against the spread. Last weeks record: 5-4. Season record: 10-7-1. Lock of the Week: 1-1.
Lock of the Week: Hawaii +8 vs Nevada. I really like Nevada as a team, but Hawaii has been their house of horrors over the years, including a Bowl loss in Hawaii a few years back. I expect this one to stay close but Nevada pulls it out for the first time in 64 years on the island...Nevada 34, Hawaii 31. (Yuck, L)
Vegas Knows Something Two-Pack of the Week: Clemson +14.5 at Florida State and Kansas State +14 at Oklahoma. Two of the biggest games on the weekly slate are 2 TD spreads? I especially like the extra half point I get with Clemson, who always gets up for Florida State and hung 35 points on them in last season's victory. K-State was throttled by Oklahoma a year ago, but the Sooners offense hasn't been the same almost since that game. Maybe I am being fooled into thinking these two will be close and I can see both underdogs winning the game. I will take both against the spread, but only one to win...Florida State 27, Clemson 21 (W) and Kansas State 34, Oklahoma 30 (W).
Three Times to the Well Pick of the Week: Louisiana-Monroe +7 vs Baylor. ULM has been good to me two weeks in a row and now they are a home dog. Only getting 7 against a dangerous Baylor offense that could blow them out of the building was a predicament. I have to ride the Warhawks one more week with a raucous Friday Night home crowd keeping them in it until the end again...Baylor 41, Louisiana-Monroe 38 (W).
How Far Can They Fall Pick of the Week: Rutgers +7 at Arkansas. Tyler Wilson is a question mark for the Razorbacks, but the Rutgers D is no question. Wilson or no Wilson, the Scarlett Knights play defense like an SEC team. Getting a TD is just enough for me to be comfortable, even more comfortable if Wilson is out...Arkansas 24, Rutgers 20 if Wilson plays, Rutgers 23, Arkansas 17 if he doesn't (W).
Other Picks of the Week:
Missouri +10 at South Carolina. Missouri has already played Georgia, so they know how tough the SEC is and how they need to play a 60 minute game. The Gamecocks are prone to some close ones and I see that this week...South Carolina 27, Missouri 24 (L).
Marshall -3 at Rice. Two excellent all-around quarterbacks in Rakeem Cato and Taylor McHargue duke it out in Houston. Cato is more experienced and the Thundering Herd have the better team around him...Marshall 44, Rice 31 (push).
Fresno State +6.5 at Tulsa. The Bulldogs have some offensive firepower to test a solid Tulsa defense which struggled against a less-talented Iowa State offense in the opener...Fresno State 34, Tulsa 33 (W).
-----------------I should have stopped here---------------
West Virginia -26.5 vs Maryland. Dana Holgerson does not take his foot off the gas and similar to Wake Forest vs Florida State last week, the talent difference ultimately leads to a very lopsided score...West Virginia 56, Maryland 17 (L).
Michigan +4.5 at Notre Dame. Michigan has had Notre Dame's number recently and we have been provided some thrilling games. I expect another close one, likely coming down to a field goal. I just happen to like Michigan to win too...Michigan 26, Notre Dame 23 (L).
Georgia Tech -14 vs Miami, FL. The Yellowjackets have their defense complementing a tough-to-stop offense. Plus Miami, FL is not that good...Georgia Tech 41, Miami, FL 21 (L).
East Carolina +17 at North Carolina. I am still trying to figure out the Tar Heels, but two close losses has to wear on you some. The Pirates got back on track a week ago and figure to be motivated for their in-state rival...North Carolina 31, East Carolina 21 (L).
Lock of the Week: Hawaii +8 vs Nevada. I really like Nevada as a team, but Hawaii has been their house of horrors over the years, including a Bowl loss in Hawaii a few years back. I expect this one to stay close but Nevada pulls it out for the first time in 64 years on the island...Nevada 34, Hawaii 31. (Yuck, L)
Vegas Knows Something Two-Pack of the Week: Clemson +14.5 at Florida State and Kansas State +14 at Oklahoma. Two of the biggest games on the weekly slate are 2 TD spreads? I especially like the extra half point I get with Clemson, who always gets up for Florida State and hung 35 points on them in last season's victory. K-State was throttled by Oklahoma a year ago, but the Sooners offense hasn't been the same almost since that game. Maybe I am being fooled into thinking these two will be close and I can see both underdogs winning the game. I will take both against the spread, but only one to win...Florida State 27, Clemson 21 (W) and Kansas State 34, Oklahoma 30 (W).
Three Times to the Well Pick of the Week: Louisiana-Monroe +7 vs Baylor. ULM has been good to me two weeks in a row and now they are a home dog. Only getting 7 against a dangerous Baylor offense that could blow them out of the building was a predicament. I have to ride the Warhawks one more week with a raucous Friday Night home crowd keeping them in it until the end again...Baylor 41, Louisiana-Monroe 38 (W).
How Far Can They Fall Pick of the Week: Rutgers +7 at Arkansas. Tyler Wilson is a question mark for the Razorbacks, but the Rutgers D is no question. Wilson or no Wilson, the Scarlett Knights play defense like an SEC team. Getting a TD is just enough for me to be comfortable, even more comfortable if Wilson is out...Arkansas 24, Rutgers 20 if Wilson plays, Rutgers 23, Arkansas 17 if he doesn't (W).
Other Picks of the Week:
Missouri +10 at South Carolina. Missouri has already played Georgia, so they know how tough the SEC is and how they need to play a 60 minute game. The Gamecocks are prone to some close ones and I see that this week...South Carolina 27, Missouri 24 (L).
Marshall -3 at Rice. Two excellent all-around quarterbacks in Rakeem Cato and Taylor McHargue duke it out in Houston. Cato is more experienced and the Thundering Herd have the better team around him...Marshall 44, Rice 31 (push).
Fresno State +6.5 at Tulsa. The Bulldogs have some offensive firepower to test a solid Tulsa defense which struggled against a less-talented Iowa State offense in the opener...Fresno State 34, Tulsa 33 (W).
-----------------I should have stopped here---------------
West Virginia -26.5 vs Maryland. Dana Holgerson does not take his foot off the gas and similar to Wake Forest vs Florida State last week, the talent difference ultimately leads to a very lopsided score...West Virginia 56, Maryland 17 (L).
Michigan +4.5 at Notre Dame. Michigan has had Notre Dame's number recently and we have been provided some thrilling games. I expect another close one, likely coming down to a field goal. I just happen to like Michigan to win too...Michigan 26, Notre Dame 23 (L).
Georgia Tech -14 vs Miami, FL. The Yellowjackets have their defense complementing a tough-to-stop offense. Plus Miami, FL is not that good...Georgia Tech 41, Miami, FL 21 (L).
East Carolina +17 at North Carolina. I am still trying to figure out the Tar Heels, but two close losses has to wear on you some. The Pirates got back on track a week ago and figure to be motivated for their in-state rival...North Carolina 31, East Carolina 21 (L).
College Football 2012 - Week 4 Preview
Big 10
What I am watching: Can Michigan seize control as the perceived best team in the Big 10 (at least the best that is not on probation) by winning at Notre Dame? We are waiting for someone to carry this flag, someone to be talked about nationally from this conference. Michigan already has one eyesore against Alabama. If they stumble again in South Bend, the Wolverines will be a non-story for the balance of 2012. As much as Michigan State has struggled against the Fighting Irish, Denard Robinson will be looking to move to 4-0 against the non-conference rival, including a thriller last year in Ann Arbor.
Upset alert: Louisiana Tech over Illinois. The Illini have a tough test this week against a Bulldogs offense that is averaging 56 points and over 600 yards a game. The Illinois defense struggled two weeks ago against Arizona State, so don't be shocked if Louisiana Tech comes in and outscores the home team. Last week: Western Michigan over Minnesota (should have been Ball State over Indiana or Notre Dame over Michigan State).
Player on the spot: Max Shortell, QB, Minnesota. Last week Shortell stepped in for injured starter Marquies Gray and threw for 260 yards and 4 TD's in a close win over Western Michigan. Gray is out this week, so Shortell gets the starting nod agaisnt Syracuse as the Golden Gophers try to get to 4-0. A similar performance will be needed, as the Orange can put up points with Ryan Nassib. Last week: Montee Ball, 37 rushes, 139 yards, 1 TD in a 16-14 victory over Utah State.
ACC
What I am watching: If you are not watching Clemson at Florida State, you are missing out. The ACC title is likely on the line this week, as these two teams have separated themselves from the rest of the conference. It is a great match-up, Clemson's high-powered offense against the immovable Florida State defense. Clemson won the battle last year, but they caught the Seminoles at the perfect time. The winner also enters the BCS Title Game discussion, but with the struggles of the conference as a whole, the winner will likely need to be one of two unbeaten teams left standing in the end to get to the Title Game.
Upset alert: Army over Wake Forest. Army is always tough to deal with defensively and got their turnover problem fixed in a close loss to Northern Illinois last week. The Demon Deacons were throttled by Florida State and this may have shaken any confidence built up from beating North Carolina the week before. Wake should win over an Army team that struggles on the road, but they better be ready for runs from all angles. Last week: Virginia over Georgia Tech (should have been Pittsburgh over Virginia Tech)
Unit on the spot: NC State rushing defense. Don't overlook the Citadel's visit to Raleigh this week. The Wolfpack offense better come ready to score, because the defense will be tested by a team that has rushed for 479 yards and 463 yards already this year. Last week: Chase Rettig, 24-44, 291 yards, 1 TD in a 22-13 loss to Northwestern.
SEC
What I am watching: How does LSU look taking the show on the road for the first time this year and can South Carolina handle another tough home test as Missouri comes calling? The SEC provides us with marquee games almost every week. This week is a bit quieter, but LSU, South Carolina and even Georgia should not overlook this week because Auburn, Missouri and Vanderbilt are all capable of the upset.
Upset alert: Rutgers over Arkansas. The Hogs are reeling and face a Rutgers defense that is on the top of its game. Tyler Wilson may be back for Arkansas, and we will see if his presence makes the difference for a team in need of a lift. Last week: Louisiana-Monroe over Auburn (close, but should have been Western Kentucky over Kentucky, Florida over Tennessee)
Player on the spot: Zac Stacy, RB, Vanderbilt. Teams have run the ball on Georgia this year and Stacy will need to build on last week's 174 yard effort in order for the Commodores to stay with the Bulldogs. Last week: James Franklin, did not play (shoulder) in a 24-21 victory over Arizona State
Big 12
What I am watching: Kansas State's visit to Oklahoma. The Big 12 schedule is going to be full of these games, but this week's conference opener is between two of my top three in the conference right now. The Sooners pounded the Wildcats a year ago, but it seems like a different Oklahoma team between then and now. Oklahoma needs a win to validate their ranking and expectation. Kansas State can validate themselves in a close loss and can vault themselves with the upset.
Upset alert: Louisiana-Monroe over Baylor and Kansas State over Oklahoma. We will go with a double dip here. I will stick with ULM, since this is the last week they will be mentioned nationally. The wind may have come out of their sails with the OT loss vs Auburn, but they have proved they can play with the big boys and Baylor has chosen to visit ULM this week. And despite Bill Snyder's troubles against Oklahoma, the Wildcats are primed for an upset to shake-up the top 10 some more. Last week: Sam Houston State over Baylor (should have been Sam Houston State over Baylor through halftime).
Player on the spot: Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma. Jones has yet to be flashy this year and the Heisman talk has all but disappeared. A big performance against K-State could ignite that talk once again. Last week: Charlie Weis, coach, Kansas, lost 20-6 to TCU
PAC-12
What I am watching: The PAC-12 is the first conference with a full conference slate this weekend. The only game between ranked teams is Arizona at Oregon, the first real test for the Ducks. The scoreboard operator should be busy, as both teams employ up-tempo high-octane offenses. It will be an indication of how good the Oregon defense is and whether the Ducks are a National Title contender. Similar to Kansas State, Arizona can be validated with a close loss and vaulted with a win.
Upset alert: Oregon State over UCLA. The Beavers are well-rested having only played one game and take on a Bruin team that appears to good to be true. If Oregon State can bottle up Johnathan Franklin like they did Montee Ball, a second upset in two games could be in the works for the Beavers. Last week: UNLV over Washington State (should have been Stanford over USC)
Player on the spot: Matt Barkley, QB, USC. Call me Captain Obvious, but USC needs to get back on track this week against Cal and Barkley needs to be the man who leads them there. Forget the offensive line struggles, Barkley needs to find ways to get the ball to his playmakers and get the season going again. Last week: Jon Hayes, 18-27, 196 yards, 2 TD in a 24-21 upset over BYU.
Big East
What I am watching: How does Louisville handle their first road test against a Florida International team that beat them a year ago? The Cardinals also must figure out what happened in the 2nd half last week when they almost squandered a 36-7 halftime lead to North Carolina. The offense has looked good with an emerging Teddy Bridgewater, but was the defense exposed some last week? Seems like a danger game for the Cardinals as they start a 3-game road trip.
Upset alert: Western Michigan over Connecticut. I missed last week on both WMU as a winner and Connecticut as a victim. I am a slow learner. The Broncos won at Connecticut last year, so Alex Carder and company should be confident. Last week: Maryland over Connecticut (should have been Rutgers over South Florida)
Player in the spotlight: B.J. Daniels, QB, South Florida. It seems as Daniels goes, so do the Bulls. Last week the turnover bug hit again in a loss to Rutgers. This week Daniels and the Bulls head on the road against a Ball State team coming off an upset of Indiana. If BJD can protect the ball and be the good Daniels, South Florida should be too much for Ball State. Last week: Teddy Bridgewater, 23-28, 279 yards, 3 TD in a 39-34 victory over North Carolina.
Non-BCS Conferences
What I am watching: I am always watching for how many victories the Non-BCS schools can accumulate against the BCS conferences. Ohio, Nevada, Colorado State, Utah State, Louisiana-Monroe,Rice, Western Kentucky, Ball State and Fresno State have done it the first three weeks with the victories over Penn State, California, Colorado, Utah, Arkansas, Kansas, Kentucky, Indiana and Colorado (again) respectively. Last season the total was 15. Which games this week might add to the current 9? Let's watch these 7...Baylor at Louisiana-Monroe, Army at Wake Forest, Connecticut at Western Michigan, Kansas at Northern Illinois, South Florida at Ball State, Louisiana Tech at Illinois, Louisville at FIU.
Upset alert: Hawaii over Nevada. Trips to Hawaii are fun, but are often rewarded with an L at the end of the trip. The Wolfpack have lost 7 straight on the island and must focus to come away victorious there for the first time since 1948. Last week: East Carolina over Southern Mississippi (got one right!!)
Players on the spot: Derek Carr, QB and Robbie Rouse, RB, Fresno State. The Bulldog tandem is off to a great start and they must continue as they visit a tough Tulsa team this week. Rouse has been especially good in 2012, with 473 total yards and 7 TD's in 3 games. The Tulsa defense has rebounded after Iowa State got them in week 1, so this will be a great test for Carr and Rouse. Last week: Rakeem Cato, 44-65, 432 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT in a 27-24 loss to Ohio.
What I am watching: Can Michigan seize control as the perceived best team in the Big 10 (at least the best that is not on probation) by winning at Notre Dame? We are waiting for someone to carry this flag, someone to be talked about nationally from this conference. Michigan already has one eyesore against Alabama. If they stumble again in South Bend, the Wolverines will be a non-story for the balance of 2012. As much as Michigan State has struggled against the Fighting Irish, Denard Robinson will be looking to move to 4-0 against the non-conference rival, including a thriller last year in Ann Arbor.
Upset alert: Louisiana Tech over Illinois. The Illini have a tough test this week against a Bulldogs offense that is averaging 56 points and over 600 yards a game. The Illinois defense struggled two weeks ago against Arizona State, so don't be shocked if Louisiana Tech comes in and outscores the home team. Last week: Western Michigan over Minnesota (should have been Ball State over Indiana or Notre Dame over Michigan State).
Player on the spot: Max Shortell, QB, Minnesota. Last week Shortell stepped in for injured starter Marquies Gray and threw for 260 yards and 4 TD's in a close win over Western Michigan. Gray is out this week, so Shortell gets the starting nod agaisnt Syracuse as the Golden Gophers try to get to 4-0. A similar performance will be needed, as the Orange can put up points with Ryan Nassib. Last week: Montee Ball, 37 rushes, 139 yards, 1 TD in a 16-14 victory over Utah State.
ACC
What I am watching: If you are not watching Clemson at Florida State, you are missing out. The ACC title is likely on the line this week, as these two teams have separated themselves from the rest of the conference. It is a great match-up, Clemson's high-powered offense against the immovable Florida State defense. Clemson won the battle last year, but they caught the Seminoles at the perfect time. The winner also enters the BCS Title Game discussion, but with the struggles of the conference as a whole, the winner will likely need to be one of two unbeaten teams left standing in the end to get to the Title Game.
Upset alert: Army over Wake Forest. Army is always tough to deal with defensively and got their turnover problem fixed in a close loss to Northern Illinois last week. The Demon Deacons were throttled by Florida State and this may have shaken any confidence built up from beating North Carolina the week before. Wake should win over an Army team that struggles on the road, but they better be ready for runs from all angles. Last week: Virginia over Georgia Tech (should have been Pittsburgh over Virginia Tech)
Unit on the spot: NC State rushing defense. Don't overlook the Citadel's visit to Raleigh this week. The Wolfpack offense better come ready to score, because the defense will be tested by a team that has rushed for 479 yards and 463 yards already this year. Last week: Chase Rettig, 24-44, 291 yards, 1 TD in a 22-13 loss to Northwestern.
SEC
What I am watching: How does LSU look taking the show on the road for the first time this year and can South Carolina handle another tough home test as Missouri comes calling? The SEC provides us with marquee games almost every week. This week is a bit quieter, but LSU, South Carolina and even Georgia should not overlook this week because Auburn, Missouri and Vanderbilt are all capable of the upset.
Upset alert: Rutgers over Arkansas. The Hogs are reeling and face a Rutgers defense that is on the top of its game. Tyler Wilson may be back for Arkansas, and we will see if his presence makes the difference for a team in need of a lift. Last week: Louisiana-Monroe over Auburn (close, but should have been Western Kentucky over Kentucky, Florida over Tennessee)
Player on the spot: Zac Stacy, RB, Vanderbilt. Teams have run the ball on Georgia this year and Stacy will need to build on last week's 174 yard effort in order for the Commodores to stay with the Bulldogs. Last week: James Franklin, did not play (shoulder) in a 24-21 victory over Arizona State
Big 12
What I am watching: Kansas State's visit to Oklahoma. The Big 12 schedule is going to be full of these games, but this week's conference opener is between two of my top three in the conference right now. The Sooners pounded the Wildcats a year ago, but it seems like a different Oklahoma team between then and now. Oklahoma needs a win to validate their ranking and expectation. Kansas State can validate themselves in a close loss and can vault themselves with the upset.
Upset alert: Louisiana-Monroe over Baylor and Kansas State over Oklahoma. We will go with a double dip here. I will stick with ULM, since this is the last week they will be mentioned nationally. The wind may have come out of their sails with the OT loss vs Auburn, but they have proved they can play with the big boys and Baylor has chosen to visit ULM this week. And despite Bill Snyder's troubles against Oklahoma, the Wildcats are primed for an upset to shake-up the top 10 some more. Last week: Sam Houston State over Baylor (should have been Sam Houston State over Baylor through halftime).
Player on the spot: Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma. Jones has yet to be flashy this year and the Heisman talk has all but disappeared. A big performance against K-State could ignite that talk once again. Last week: Charlie Weis, coach, Kansas, lost 20-6 to TCU
PAC-12
What I am watching: The PAC-12 is the first conference with a full conference slate this weekend. The only game between ranked teams is Arizona at Oregon, the first real test for the Ducks. The scoreboard operator should be busy, as both teams employ up-tempo high-octane offenses. It will be an indication of how good the Oregon defense is and whether the Ducks are a National Title contender. Similar to Kansas State, Arizona can be validated with a close loss and vaulted with a win.
Upset alert: Oregon State over UCLA. The Beavers are well-rested having only played one game and take on a Bruin team that appears to good to be true. If Oregon State can bottle up Johnathan Franklin like they did Montee Ball, a second upset in two games could be in the works for the Beavers. Last week: UNLV over Washington State (should have been Stanford over USC)
Player on the spot: Matt Barkley, QB, USC. Call me Captain Obvious, but USC needs to get back on track this week against Cal and Barkley needs to be the man who leads them there. Forget the offensive line struggles, Barkley needs to find ways to get the ball to his playmakers and get the season going again. Last week: Jon Hayes, 18-27, 196 yards, 2 TD in a 24-21 upset over BYU.
Big East
What I am watching: How does Louisville handle their first road test against a Florida International team that beat them a year ago? The Cardinals also must figure out what happened in the 2nd half last week when they almost squandered a 36-7 halftime lead to North Carolina. The offense has looked good with an emerging Teddy Bridgewater, but was the defense exposed some last week? Seems like a danger game for the Cardinals as they start a 3-game road trip.
Upset alert: Western Michigan over Connecticut. I missed last week on both WMU as a winner and Connecticut as a victim. I am a slow learner. The Broncos won at Connecticut last year, so Alex Carder and company should be confident. Last week: Maryland over Connecticut (should have been Rutgers over South Florida)
Player in the spotlight: B.J. Daniels, QB, South Florida. It seems as Daniels goes, so do the Bulls. Last week the turnover bug hit again in a loss to Rutgers. This week Daniels and the Bulls head on the road against a Ball State team coming off an upset of Indiana. If BJD can protect the ball and be the good Daniels, South Florida should be too much for Ball State. Last week: Teddy Bridgewater, 23-28, 279 yards, 3 TD in a 39-34 victory over North Carolina.
Non-BCS Conferences
What I am watching: I am always watching for how many victories the Non-BCS schools can accumulate against the BCS conferences. Ohio, Nevada, Colorado State, Utah State, Louisiana-Monroe,Rice, Western Kentucky, Ball State and Fresno State have done it the first three weeks with the victories over Penn State, California, Colorado, Utah, Arkansas, Kansas, Kentucky, Indiana and Colorado (again) respectively. Last season the total was 15. Which games this week might add to the current 9? Let's watch these 7...Baylor at Louisiana-Monroe, Army at Wake Forest, Connecticut at Western Michigan, Kansas at Northern Illinois, South Florida at Ball State, Louisiana Tech at Illinois, Louisville at FIU.
Upset alert: Hawaii over Nevada. Trips to Hawaii are fun, but are often rewarded with an L at the end of the trip. The Wolfpack have lost 7 straight on the island and must focus to come away victorious there for the first time since 1948. Last week: East Carolina over Southern Mississippi (got one right!!)
Players on the spot: Derek Carr, QB and Robbie Rouse, RB, Fresno State. The Bulldog tandem is off to a great start and they must continue as they visit a tough Tulsa team this week. Rouse has been especially good in 2012, with 473 total yards and 7 TD's in 3 games. The Tulsa defense has rebounded after Iowa State got them in week 1, so this will be a great test for Carr and Rouse. Last week: Rakeem Cato, 44-65, 432 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT in a 27-24 loss to Ohio.
Wednesday, September 19, 2012
College Football 2012 - Updated Bowl Projections - September 19, 2012
New Mexico Bowl - Utah Utes vs San Diego State Aztecs
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl - Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs Bowling Green Falcons
Poinsettia Bowl - Nevada Wolfpack vs BYU Cougars
Beef O'Brady's Bowl - Pittsburgh Panthers vs East Carolina Pirates
New Orleans Bowl - Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
Las Vegas Bowl - Boise State Broncos vs Arizona State Sun Devils
Hawaii Bowl - Fresno State Bulldogs vs Marshall Thundering Herd
Little Caesars Bowl - Ohio Bobcats vs Minnesota Golden Gophers
Military Bowl - Western Michigan Broncos vs San Jose State Spartans
Belk Bowl - Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Holiday Bowl - Stanford Cardinal vs TCU Horned Frogs
Russell Athletic Bowl - South Florida Bulls vs North Carolina State Wolfpack
Independence Bowl - Vanderbilt Commodores vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Texas Bowl - Baylor Bears vs Northwestern Wildcats
Armed Forces Bowl - Arkansas State Redhawks vs Air Force Falcons
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl - Washington Huskies vs Utah State Aggies
Alamo Bowl - UCLA Bruins vs Kansas State Wildcats
Pinstripe Bowl - Cincinnati Bearcats vs Toledo Rockets
Music City Bowl - Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs Arkansas Razorbacks
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl - Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Purdue Boilermakers
Sun Bowl - Arizona Wildcats vs Virginia Cavaliers
Liberty Bowl - Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Missouri Tigers
Chick-Fil-A Bowl - Texas A&M Aggies vs Virginia Tech Hokies
Ticket City Bowl - SMU Mustangs vs Iowa Hawkeyes
Capital One Bowl - Michigan State Spartans vs LSU Tigers
Outback Bowl - Nebraska Cornhuskers vs Florida Gators
Gator Bowl - Tennessee Volunteers vs Wisconsin Badgers
Cotton Bowl - South Carolina Gamecocks vs Texas Longhorns
BBVA Compass Bowl - Louisville Cardinals vs Mississippi State Tigers
GoDaddy Bowl - Northern Illinois Huskies vs Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
Rose Bowl - USC Trojans vs Michigan Wolverines
Orange Bowl - Florida State Seminoles vs Rutgers Scarlett Knights
Fiesta Bowl - Oklahoma Sooners vs Clemson Tigers
Sugar Bowl - Alabama Crimson Tide vs West Virginia Mountaineers
BCS National Championship - Oregon Ducks vs Georgia Bulldogs
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl - Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs Bowling Green Falcons
Poinsettia Bowl - Nevada Wolfpack vs BYU Cougars
Beef O'Brady's Bowl - Pittsburgh Panthers vs East Carolina Pirates
New Orleans Bowl - Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
Las Vegas Bowl - Boise State Broncos vs Arizona State Sun Devils
Hawaii Bowl - Fresno State Bulldogs vs Marshall Thundering Herd
Little Caesars Bowl - Ohio Bobcats vs Minnesota Golden Gophers
Military Bowl - Western Michigan Broncos vs San Jose State Spartans
Belk Bowl - Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Holiday Bowl - Stanford Cardinal vs TCU Horned Frogs
Russell Athletic Bowl - South Florida Bulls vs North Carolina State Wolfpack
Independence Bowl - Vanderbilt Commodores vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Texas Bowl - Baylor Bears vs Northwestern Wildcats
Armed Forces Bowl - Arkansas State Redhawks vs Air Force Falcons
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl - Washington Huskies vs Utah State Aggies
Alamo Bowl - UCLA Bruins vs Kansas State Wildcats
Pinstripe Bowl - Cincinnati Bearcats vs Toledo Rockets
Music City Bowl - Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs Arkansas Razorbacks
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl - Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Purdue Boilermakers
Sun Bowl - Arizona Wildcats vs Virginia Cavaliers
Liberty Bowl - Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Missouri Tigers
Chick-Fil-A Bowl - Texas A&M Aggies vs Virginia Tech Hokies
Ticket City Bowl - SMU Mustangs vs Iowa Hawkeyes
Capital One Bowl - Michigan State Spartans vs LSU Tigers
Outback Bowl - Nebraska Cornhuskers vs Florida Gators
Gator Bowl - Tennessee Volunteers vs Wisconsin Badgers
Cotton Bowl - South Carolina Gamecocks vs Texas Longhorns
BBVA Compass Bowl - Louisville Cardinals vs Mississippi State Tigers
GoDaddy Bowl - Northern Illinois Huskies vs Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
Rose Bowl - USC Trojans vs Michigan Wolverines
Orange Bowl - Florida State Seminoles vs Rutgers Scarlett Knights
Fiesta Bowl - Oklahoma Sooners vs Clemson Tigers
Sugar Bowl - Alabama Crimson Tide vs West Virginia Mountaineers
BCS National Championship - Oregon Ducks vs Georgia Bulldogs
College Football 2012 - Week 3 Recap
PAC-12
Predominant thought: I thought it would be Oregon to expose it, but I am not a big believer that Lane Kiffin can elevate USC to the level expected. The Trojans problems along the offensive line were exposed and the Matt Barkley coronation parade has taken a sudden detour. The Trojans are talented enough to recover with a PAC-12 title, but with depth issues and the aforementioned offensive line problems, maybe we will look back and realize that USC was indeed over-rated to start the season.
3 Quick hits:
1. Oregon Ducks (BCS National Title Game)
2. USC Trojans (Rose Bowl)
3. UCLA Bruins (Alamo Bowl)
4. Stanford Cardinal (Holiday Bowl)
5. Arizona Wildcats (Sun Bowl)
6. Washington Huskies (Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl)
7. Arizona State Sun Devils (Las Vegas Bowl)
8. Utah Utes (New Mexico Bowl)
9. Washington State Cougars
10. California Golden Bears
11. Oregon State Beavers
99. Colorado Buffaloes
Big 10
Predominant thought: After one more week of non-conference games, saddle up for one of the most wide-open conference races of 2012. Every team has flaws, and potentially the best team is ineligible for post-season. Can Michigan State and Wisconsin improve on offense? Can Nebraska and Michigan improve on defense? How good are Northwestern, Purdue and Minnesota? Tune in for answers to these questions...
3 Quick hits:
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (Probation Bowl)
2. Michigan Wolverines (Rose Bowl)
3. Michigan State Spartans (Capital One Bowl)
4. Nebraska Cornhuskers (Outback Bowl)
5. Wisconsin Badgers (Gator Bowl)
6. Northwestern Wildcats (Texas Bowl)
7. Purdue Boilermakers (Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl)
8. Iowa Hawkeyes (TicketCity Bowl)
9. Minnesota Golden Gophers (Little Caesars Bowl)
10. Illinois Fighting Illini
11. Penn State Nittany Lions
12. Indiana Hoosiers
SEC
Predominant thought: If you think your season went bad USC fan, try being an Arkansas fan. In reality, the defense was never in place even if the bevy of offensive talent was hitting on all cylinders and its former mastermind hadn't gone off-road. The Razorbacks were definitely over-rated and sometimes we get caught up in all other offensive hoopla and forget defense is still necessary too, myself included.
3 Quick hits:
1. Georgia Bulldogs (BCS National Title Game)
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (Sugar Bowl)
3. LSU Tigers(Capital One Bowl)
4. South Carolina Gamecocks (Cotton Bowl)
5. Florida Gators (Outback Bowl)
6. Tennessee Volunteers (Gator Bowl)
7. Texas A&M Aggies (Chick Fil-A Bowl)
8. Mississippi State Bulldogs (BBVA Compass Bowl)
9. Arkansas Razorbacks (Music City Bowl)
10. Missouri Tigers (Liberty Bowl)
11. Vanderbilt Commodores (Independence Bowl)
12. Auburn Tigers
13. Ole Miss Rebels
14. Kentucky Wildcats
Big 12
Predominant thought: If nobody figures out West Virginia's offense, the Mountaineers are going to have a say in the National Championship race. Through two games, Geno Smith is 66-75 passing, an 88% completion rate. I don't care what the competition is, that is absurd. The team has racked up 1,224 yards in two games. Dana Holgerson is an offensive guru and this offense has taken off starting with last year's Orange Bowl.
3 Quick hits:
1. West Virginia Mountaineers (Sugar Bowl)
2. Oklahoma Sooners (Fiesta Bowl)
3. Kansas State Wildcats (Alamo Bowl)
4. Texas Longhorns (Cotton Bowl)
5. TCU Horned Frogs (Holiday Bowl)
6. Oklahoma State Cowboys (Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl)
7. Baylor Bears (Texas Bowl)
8. Texas Tech Red Raiders
9. Iowa State Cyclones
10. Kansas Jayhawks
(currently not filling the Pinstripe Bowl slot)
ACC
Predominant thought: It is too bad the Clemson/Florida State game happens so early in the season, but at least both teams appear to hitting on all cylinders. The winner is the clear favorite in the ACC and will have some national say for a while. The divide between these two and the rest of the ACC grows week by week.
3 Quick hits:
1. Florida State Seminoles (Orange Bowl)
2. Clemson Tigers (Fiesta Bowl)
3. Virginia Tech Hokies (Chick Fil-a Bowl)
4. North Carolina State Wolfpack (Russell Athletic Bowl)
5. Georgia Tech Yellowjackets (Belk Bowl)
6. Virginia Cavaliers (Sun Bowl)
7. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (Music City Bowl)
8. North Carolina Tar Heels (Probation Bowl)
9. Miami Hurricanes
10. Maryland Terrapins
11. Duke Blue Devils
12. Boston College Eagles
(currently not filling Independence Bowl or Military Bowl slots)
Big East
Predominant thought: Leave it to a maligned Pittsburgh team to get the biggest non-conference win for the Big East this season. The Panthers rebounded and may be stabilizing the ship. Pitt has talent galore at the running back and can get after the quarterback as well. Probably a team you would rather play sooner than later on your Big East schedule (chalk one up for Cincinnati).
3 Quick hits:
1. Rutgers Scarlett Knights (Orange Bowl)
2. Louisville Cardinals (BBVA Compass Bowl)
3. Cincinnati Bearcats (Pinstripe Bowl)
4. South Florida Bulls (Russell Athletic Bowl)
5. Pittsburgh Panthers (Beef O'Brady's Bowl)
6. Connecticut Huskies
7. Syracuse Orange
8. Temple Owls
Other Conferences/Independents
Predominant thought: Notre Dame looks good, their future looks good with the new ACC deal, their schedule looks less daunting. 2012 is being kind to the Irish. They are knocking on the door of the BCS. If they beat Michigan I will let them in that door.
3 Quick hits:
1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Belk Bowl)
2. Ohio Bobcats (Little Caesars Bowl)
3. BYU Cougars (Poinsettia Bowl)
4. Boise State Broncos (Las Vegas Bowl)
5. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl)
6. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (New Orleans Bowl)
7. Utah State Aggies (Kraft Fight Hunger**)
8. Nevada Wolfpack (Poinsettia Bowl)
9. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (Liberty Bowl)
10. Northern Illinois Huskies (GoDaddy.com Bowl)
Other Projected Bowl Eligible Teams:
SMU Mustangs (TicketCity Bowl)
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (New Orleans Bowl)
Marshall Thundering Herd (Hawaii Bowl)
East Carolina Pirates (Beef O'Brady's Bowl)
Western Michigan Broncos (Military Bowl**)
Toledo Rockets (Pinstripe Bowl**)
Bowling Green Falcons (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl)
Fresno State Bulldogs (Hawaii Bowl)
San Diego State Aztecs (New Mexico Bowl)
Air Force Falcons (Armed Forces Bowl)
Louisiana Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (GoDaddy.com Bowl)
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (Independence Bowl**)
Arkansas State Redhawks (Armed Forces Bowl**)
San Jose State Spartans (Military Bowl**)
Predominant thought: I thought it would be Oregon to expose it, but I am not a big believer that Lane Kiffin can elevate USC to the level expected. The Trojans problems along the offensive line were exposed and the Matt Barkley coronation parade has taken a sudden detour. The Trojans are talented enough to recover with a PAC-12 title, but with depth issues and the aforementioned offensive line problems, maybe we will look back and realize that USC was indeed over-rated to start the season.
3 Quick hits:
- Kudos to Utah for recovering and beating a talented BYU team after the tough loss to Utah State. The victory proves once again what a solid program the Utes are and what a quality addition the PAC-12 made with Utah.
- The same cannot currently be said about Colorado, who may have hit a all-time low by trailing 55-7 at halftime this week at Fresno State. Kordell Stewart, where have you gone?
- Whoever had UCLA, Stanford and Arizona all at 3-0 at this point, please stand up...anyone? It will be interesting to see where these 3 go from here, especially Arizona who gets another litmus test this week at Oregon.
1. Oregon Ducks (BCS National Title Game)
2. USC Trojans (Rose Bowl)
3. UCLA Bruins (Alamo Bowl)
4. Stanford Cardinal (Holiday Bowl)
5. Arizona Wildcats (Sun Bowl)
6. Washington Huskies (Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl)
7. Arizona State Sun Devils (Las Vegas Bowl)
8. Utah Utes (New Mexico Bowl)
9. Washington State Cougars
10. California Golden Bears
11. Oregon State Beavers
99. Colorado Buffaloes
Big 10
Predominant thought: After one more week of non-conference games, saddle up for one of the most wide-open conference races of 2012. Every team has flaws, and potentially the best team is ineligible for post-season. Can Michigan State and Wisconsin improve on offense? Can Nebraska and Michigan improve on defense? How good are Northwestern, Purdue and Minnesota? Tune in for answers to these questions...
3 Quick hits:
- Congrats to the current Penn State regime for getting their first win of 2012. It is still going to be a long season in Happy Valley, probably a long 4-6 years.
- Minnesota is sporting an impressive 3-0 start, but now must sweat out an injury to quarterback MarQueis Gray. They survived Western Michigan without him, but the schedule gets tough now. I am still tentatively moving the Gophers into a Bowl slot this week.
- All of this non-conference mediocrity almost assures the Big 10 of one BCS bid.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (Probation Bowl)
2. Michigan Wolverines (Rose Bowl)
3. Michigan State Spartans (Capital One Bowl)
4. Nebraska Cornhuskers (Outback Bowl)
5. Wisconsin Badgers (Gator Bowl)
6. Northwestern Wildcats (Texas Bowl)
7. Purdue Boilermakers (Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl)
8. Iowa Hawkeyes (TicketCity Bowl)
9. Minnesota Golden Gophers (Little Caesars Bowl)
10. Illinois Fighting Illini
11. Penn State Nittany Lions
12. Indiana Hoosiers
SEC
Predominant thought: If you think your season went bad USC fan, try being an Arkansas fan. In reality, the defense was never in place even if the bevy of offensive talent was hitting on all cylinders and its former mastermind hadn't gone off-road. The Razorbacks were definitely over-rated and sometimes we get caught up in all other offensive hoopla and forget defense is still necessary too, myself included.
3 Quick hits:
- Is that an offense we see developing in Gainesville? If it is, Florida becomes a dangerous team in the SEC East.
- Ryan who? Texas A&M looks to have found their heir apparent in Johnny Manziel, who is adding a dual pass/run threat to the offense that Mr. Tannehill did not have. With Kevin Sumlin at the controls, Manziel will be fun to watch.
- Speaking of dangerous teams...with all the issues South Carolina keeps having at quarterback, the team continues to chug along below the radar. The spotlight will come as the SEC games begin, but the ol' ball coach has his team right where he wants them, except maybe health at quarterback.
1. Georgia Bulldogs (BCS National Title Game)
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (Sugar Bowl)
3. LSU Tigers(Capital One Bowl)
4. South Carolina Gamecocks (Cotton Bowl)
5. Florida Gators (Outback Bowl)
6. Tennessee Volunteers (Gator Bowl)
7. Texas A&M Aggies (Chick Fil-A Bowl)
8. Mississippi State Bulldogs (BBVA Compass Bowl)
9. Arkansas Razorbacks (Music City Bowl)
10. Missouri Tigers (Liberty Bowl)
11. Vanderbilt Commodores (Independence Bowl)
12. Auburn Tigers
13. Ole Miss Rebels
14. Kentucky Wildcats
Big 12
Predominant thought: If nobody figures out West Virginia's offense, the Mountaineers are going to have a say in the National Championship race. Through two games, Geno Smith is 66-75 passing, an 88% completion rate. I don't care what the competition is, that is absurd. The team has racked up 1,224 yards in two games. Dana Holgerson is an offensive guru and this offense has taken off starting with last year's Orange Bowl.
3 Quick hits:
- RGIII is gone, but Baylor is not far behind West Virginia with 1,157 yards offense in two games. Nick Florence has stepped in and looked very good and the other new offensive skill players have stepped in seamlessly as well.
- Oklahoma State can feel slighted that there 2,060 yards through 3 games got 3rd billing, but they lost a game. Still, that is 687 yards per game, 75 more than West Virginia's total.
- Finally, Texas Tech is rolling it up at 598 yards per game and I might be warming up to the fact that this team can win 3 Big 12 games, but not yet.
1. West Virginia Mountaineers (Sugar Bowl)
2. Oklahoma Sooners (Fiesta Bowl)
3. Kansas State Wildcats (Alamo Bowl)
4. Texas Longhorns (Cotton Bowl)
5. TCU Horned Frogs (Holiday Bowl)
6. Oklahoma State Cowboys (Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl)
7. Baylor Bears (Texas Bowl)
8. Texas Tech Red Raiders
9. Iowa State Cyclones
10. Kansas Jayhawks
(currently not filling the Pinstripe Bowl slot)
ACC
Predominant thought: It is too bad the Clemson/Florida State game happens so early in the season, but at least both teams appear to hitting on all cylinders. The winner is the clear favorite in the ACC and will have some national say for a while. The divide between these two and the rest of the ACC grows week by week.
3 Quick hits:
- Virginia Tech, I didn't see that one coming. The surprise was the defensive effort out of a unit touted amongst the nation's best. Where the Hokies go from here I am not sure, as they should have lost the opener to Georgia Tech. That win over Tech keeps them as Coastal Division favorites for the time being.
- Georgia Tech really wants the last minute of regulation back in the Va Tech game, because after their dismantling of Virginia, Georgia Tech would have had a clear path to the Coastal Division title.
- Wake Forest is going to be a tough one to figure all year long. They were outclassed by Florida State, but losing 52-0 to team you defeated a year ago is not good. They need to bounce back with some easier games to continue the bowl-eligibility path.
1. Florida State Seminoles (Orange Bowl)
2. Clemson Tigers (Fiesta Bowl)
3. Virginia Tech Hokies (Chick Fil-a Bowl)
4. North Carolina State Wolfpack (Russell Athletic Bowl)
5. Georgia Tech Yellowjackets (Belk Bowl)
6. Virginia Cavaliers (Sun Bowl)
7. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (Music City Bowl)
8. North Carolina Tar Heels (Probation Bowl)
9. Miami Hurricanes
10. Maryland Terrapins
11. Duke Blue Devils
12. Boston College Eagles
(currently not filling Independence Bowl or Military Bowl slots)
Big East
Predominant thought: Leave it to a maligned Pittsburgh team to get the biggest non-conference win for the Big East this season. The Panthers rebounded and may be stabilizing the ship. Pitt has talent galore at the running back and can get after the quarterback as well. Probably a team you would rather play sooner than later on your Big East schedule (chalk one up for Cincinnati).
3 Quick hits:
- If you want a sure thing, bet against South Florida to lose on a Thursday night. The Bulls are now 0-9 in such games since joining the Big East conference.
- I didn't see what happened to Louisville in the 2nd half Saturday, but it should be a lesson on closing out games for the Cardinals.
- Right now, I have the Pitt at UConn game winner taking the 5th Big East bowl slot after both teams notched key victories this week.
1. Rutgers Scarlett Knights (Orange Bowl)
2. Louisville Cardinals (BBVA Compass Bowl)
3. Cincinnati Bearcats (Pinstripe Bowl)
4. South Florida Bulls (Russell Athletic Bowl)
5. Pittsburgh Panthers (Beef O'Brady's Bowl)
6. Connecticut Huskies
7. Syracuse Orange
8. Temple Owls
Other Conferences/Independents
Predominant thought: Notre Dame looks good, their future looks good with the new ACC deal, their schedule looks less daunting. 2012 is being kind to the Irish. They are knocking on the door of the BCS. If they beat Michigan I will let them in that door.
3 Quick hits:
- Kudos to the Warhawks. While I picked Louisiana-Monroe to win the Sun Belt and cover last week against Arkansas, I did not see that upset coming. This is a really solid team that should give Auburn everything they can handle this week.
- Raise your hand if you have any clue who is going to win Conference-USA this year. After all the quarterback losses to graduation, this conference appears as unpredictable as ever this season. The conference is also off to a 6-16 start, which does not bode well for bowl-eligibility slots either, especially with one team (UCF) already out of the mix.
- Name the three conferences where every team has at least one win...The ACC and the Big 12 are the first two answers. The 3rd is the Sun Belt Conference, often maligned as the worst of the FBS conferences.
1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Belk Bowl)
2. Ohio Bobcats (Little Caesars Bowl)
3. BYU Cougars (Poinsettia Bowl)
4. Boise State Broncos (Las Vegas Bowl)
5. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl)
6. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (New Orleans Bowl)
7. Utah State Aggies (Kraft Fight Hunger**)
8. Nevada Wolfpack (Poinsettia Bowl)
9. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (Liberty Bowl)
10. Northern Illinois Huskies (GoDaddy.com Bowl)
Other Projected Bowl Eligible Teams:
SMU Mustangs (TicketCity Bowl)
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (New Orleans Bowl)
Marshall Thundering Herd (Hawaii Bowl)
East Carolina Pirates (Beef O'Brady's Bowl)
Western Michigan Broncos (Military Bowl**)
Toledo Rockets (Pinstripe Bowl**)
Bowling Green Falcons (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl)
Fresno State Bulldogs (Hawaii Bowl)
San Diego State Aztecs (New Mexico Bowl)
Air Force Falcons (Armed Forces Bowl)
Louisiana Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (GoDaddy.com Bowl)
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (Independence Bowl**)
Arkansas State Redhawks (Armed Forces Bowl**)
San Jose State Spartans (Military Bowl**)
Thursday, September 13, 2012
College Football Week 3 - Jabesblog picks
Instead of picking every game straight up this year, I thought I would go more Vegas-style and select certain games each week to pick against the spread. Last weeks record: 5-3-1. Season record: 5-3-1. Lock of the Week: 1-0.
Lock of the Week: BYU -4 at Utah. I am giving points on the road in a rivalry game, we will see how smart this is. Utah has to be deflated after losing to Utah State and losing their quarterback and BYU has been as solid as they come. BYU 27, Utah 13.
De Ja Vu Pick of the Week: Louisiana-Monroe +16.5 at Auburn. Not a lot of love for the Warhawks with this line. Auburn has a struggling quarterback and has scored 10 points in each of its first two games. As I stated last week, ULM is good on both sides of the ball. I expect a close one, and since it makes for a great story...Louisiana-Monroe 31, Auburn 24.
Thursday Night Special: Rutgers +7.5 at South Florida. I have Rutgers going to the BCS, but I had them losing at South Florida. The Scarlett Knights defense is really good, but they are struggling to score...South Florida 17, Rutgers 16.
Anti-Homer Pick of the Week: Utah State +14 at Wisconsin. I was going to stay away from this one, but I think my Badgers are getting too much love against the Aggies...Wisconsin 27, Utah State 24.
Other Picks of the Week:
Northern Illinois -3 at Army. Army was a mess last year and 2012 started in similar fashion. NIU's defense has been good as their offense round into form...Northern Illinois 33, Army 17.
Louisville -3 vs North Carolina. The Cardinals are looking to burst onto the national stage this year and the Tar Heels looked average last week in losing to Wake Forest...Louisville 38, North Carolina 28.
Northwestern -3.5 vs Boston College. The Wildcats seem to be another team that doesn't get much Vegas love, but they always seem to play close games so maybe 3.5 is a trick...Northwestern 31, Boston College 20.
Western Michigan +3 at Minnesota. The Gophers have been making a trend to lose a home game they shouldn't each season. Saturday is the day...Western Michigan 37, Minnesota 31.
Virginia +10.5 at Georgia Tech. I know the Virginia offense is struggling, but this line kept whispering to me based on how close I thought these two teams were before the season...Georgia Tech 26, Virginia 20.
Lock of the Week: BYU -4 at Utah. I am giving points on the road in a rivalry game, we will see how smart this is. Utah has to be deflated after losing to Utah State and losing their quarterback and BYU has been as solid as they come. BYU 27, Utah 13.
De Ja Vu Pick of the Week: Louisiana-Monroe +16.5 at Auburn. Not a lot of love for the Warhawks with this line. Auburn has a struggling quarterback and has scored 10 points in each of its first two games. As I stated last week, ULM is good on both sides of the ball. I expect a close one, and since it makes for a great story...Louisiana-Monroe 31, Auburn 24.
Thursday Night Special: Rutgers +7.5 at South Florida. I have Rutgers going to the BCS, but I had them losing at South Florida. The Scarlett Knights defense is really good, but they are struggling to score...South Florida 17, Rutgers 16.
Anti-Homer Pick of the Week: Utah State +14 at Wisconsin. I was going to stay away from this one, but I think my Badgers are getting too much love against the Aggies...Wisconsin 27, Utah State 24.
Other Picks of the Week:
Northern Illinois -3 at Army. Army was a mess last year and 2012 started in similar fashion. NIU's defense has been good as their offense round into form...Northern Illinois 33, Army 17.
Louisville -3 vs North Carolina. The Cardinals are looking to burst onto the national stage this year and the Tar Heels looked average last week in losing to Wake Forest...Louisville 38, North Carolina 28.
Northwestern -3.5 vs Boston College. The Wildcats seem to be another team that doesn't get much Vegas love, but they always seem to play close games so maybe 3.5 is a trick...Northwestern 31, Boston College 20.
Western Michigan +3 at Minnesota. The Gophers have been making a trend to lose a home game they shouldn't each season. Saturday is the day...Western Michigan 37, Minnesota 31.
Virginia +10.5 at Georgia Tech. I know the Virginia offense is struggling, but this line kept whispering to me based on how close I thought these two teams were before the season...Georgia Tech 26, Virginia 20.
College Football 2012 - Week 3 Preview
Big 10
What I am watching: Michigan State hosting Notre Dame. The Spartans are now the torch-bearer for the Big 10 and have revenge on their minds as the Fighting Irish visit Saturday night. Michigan State's defense looks like it is for real, so maybe they will not need Andrew Maxwell to make many big plays to win. I expect the Irish to focus on Laveon Bell and make Maxwell try to beat them. I don't expect a ton of points in this one.
Upset alert: Western Michigan at Minnesota. The Broncos have not beaten a Big 10 team, but do bring an experienced quarterback and improving offense into visit the Gophers. While Minnesota is 2-0, they did need overtime to best a typically poor UNLV team. The game will likely come down to either MarQueis Gray or Alex Carder making (or not making) a key play. Last week: UCLA over Nebraska :)
Player on the spot: Montee Ball, RB, Wisconsin. The Heisman candidacy was short-lived, but its time to start winning football games. The offensive line has not helped, but Ball does not look like the same quick, decisive running back from 2011. Wisconsin needs the old Ball to get back on the winning track against an underrated Utah State team coming off a huge upset of Utah. Last week: Andrew Maxwell, 20-31, 275 yards, 2 TD in a win over Central Michigan.
ACC
What I am watching: The early-season battle of potential ACC Coastal contenders with Virginia at Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets played Virginia Tech tough and should have won the game, but that loss makes Saturday a must-win to avoid an 0-2 conference start. Virginia escaped against Penn State last week and needs to show more offensively to be a player in the ACC this season.
Upset alert: Virginia at Georgia Tech. Really the only one on the board to keep an eye on this week, but there is no reason the Cavaliers can't go into Bobby Dodd Stadium and steal a victory. Last week: Wake Forest over North Carolina :)
Player on the spot: Chase Rettig, QB, Boston College. Rettig is off to a great start in 2012 with over 600 yards passing and 5 TD's. Rettig leads the Eagles on the road at Northwestern this week and will need to continue his superb play for B.C. to have a chance at the upset. Last week: Perry Jones, 8 rushes for 14 yards and 4 catches for 14 yards in a 17-16 victory over Penn State.
SEC
What I am watching: Can Tennessee end their recent skid against the Gators or will Florida keep doing enough to get by? Things would appear to be aligning for a Volunteer victory on Saturday, but the last time Tennessee could claim bragging rights in this series was 2004. Injuries and a skittish offense might eventually do the Gators in and the Volunteers appear to be better stacked with weapons on both sides of the ball than in recent years.
Upset alert: Louisiana-Monroe at Auburn. The Tigers are 0-2 and ULM just beat Arkansas. It usually doesn't happen this way, but why not?? Last week: Northwestern over Vanderbilt :)
Player on the spot: James Franklin, QB, Missouri. After a second half beating at the hands of Georgia, Missouri hosts the white-hot offense of Arizona State this week. Franklin will need to step-up his game to keep up with the Sun Devils and avoid consecutive home losses. Last week: Dan Mullen, 28-10 winner over Auburn.
Big 12
What I am watching: How does Oklahoma State respond to last week's loss with a talented Louisiana-Lafayette visiting Stillwater? The Ragin' Cajuns are no slouch, so the Cowboys better figure out their defensive woes and turnover problems before they are staring at 1-2. The prescription might be a heavy dose of Joseph Randle and Jeremy Smith.
Upset alert: Sam Houston State at Baylor. Am I stretching on this one? Baylor looked really good in dispatching SMU in their opener but Sam Houston State was the FCS runner-up a year ago. If nothing else, expect this one to be closer than expected. Last week: Miami, FL over Kansas State (ouch!!).
Coach on the spot: Charlie Weis, Kansas. Last week's loss against Rice deflated any optimism in the Jayhawk program under it's first year coach. How Weis gets his team to respond this week as talented Big 12 newbie TCU visits will show me us a lot. Or is Weis just one of the most over-rated coaches in recent memory? Last week: Steele Jantz, 24-36, 241 Yards, 1 TD, 2 Int, 14 carries, 40 yards in Iowa State's 9-6 upset of Iowa.
PAC-12
What I am watching: USC's first big test at Stanford. I am not sure we really know who the real Stanford is at this point, but they can run the football and play solid defense which has to be a recipe to beat the Trojans. Keeping the ball away from Barkley/Redd/Lee/Woods would seem like a good idea. Detractors from USC say that depth will ultimately be their downfall, but having this one in the early season works in their favor.
Upset alert: Washington State at UNLV. The Rebels play much better at home and Mike Leach's Cougars are still an enigma. If the Rebels can cause some turnovers, Tim Cornett may be able to carry them to an upset. Last week: Illinois over Arizona State (ouch part II!!).
Player on the spot: Jon Hayes, QB, Utah. The career-ending injury to Jordan Wynn has thrust Hayes into the starting role. After failing to save the day against rival #1 Utah State, Hayes must now try to conquer rival #2 as BYU visits this week. The Cougar defense is vastly underrated, so Hayes will need an improved performance to keep the Utes in this one. Last week: Johnathan Franklin, 26 carries, 217 yards, 3 catches, 59 yards, 1 TD in the 36-30 upset of Nebraska.
Big East
What I am watching: The Thursday night tussle between Rutgers and South Florida, the first match-up between Big East favorites this season. Rutgers is struggling to find an offensive identity but boasts a strong defense. South Florida might have the top offense in the conference but has had some defensive lapses thus far. It will be interesting to see which unit shows the improvement to lead their team to victory.
Upset alert: Connecticut at Maryland. I get a little leery when I see Connecticut as a road favorite against another BCS school. I have been bashing Maryland (based on last season), but they are 2-0 coming off a win against another Big East school in Temple. Last week: Begrudgingly Maryland over Temple
Player in the spotlight: Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville. Let's put a spotlight on Mr. Bridgewater this week in a big non-conference game against North Carolina. The Tar Heels can score points, so it will be imperative for Bridgewater to continue his strong play to lead the Cardinals to victory and stamp Louisville as both a viable contender in the Big East and nationally. Last week: Ryan Nassib, 30-46, 322 yards, 2 TD, 2 Int in a 42-29 loss vs USC.
Non-BCS Conferences
What I am watching: I am always watching for how many victories the Non-BCS schools can accumulate against the BCS conferences. Ohio, Nevada, Colorado State, Utah State, Louisiana-Monroe, and Rice have done it the first two weeks with the victories over Penn State, California, Colorado, Utah, Arkansas and Kansas, respectively. Last season the total was 15. Which games this week might add to the current 6? Let's watch these 8...Louisiana-Monroe at Auburn, Texas A&M at SMU, Western Michigan at Minnesota, Ball State at Indiana, Washington State at UNLV, Colorado at Fresno State, Utah State at Wisconsin and Louisiana-Lafayette at Oklahoma State.
Upset alert: East Carolina at Southern Mississippi. Both teams have uncertain quarterback situations, so don't be surprised if the Pirates pull the upset in this closely-contested conference rivalry. Last week: North Dakota State over Colorado State (5-2 on upsets, not too bad).
Player on the spot: Rakeem Cato, QB, Marshall. Cato has a chance to make a name for himself and halt my early talk of an unbeaten season for Ohio. Through two games Cato has been superb, but a different challenge awaits him with the Bobcats defense. If he can outplay his counterpart Tyler Tettleton, Marshall could exact revenge from last year's thrashing at Ohio. Last week: Travis Bush, OC, Houston, 93 total yards, 580 yards passing in a 56-49 loss to Louisiana Tech.
What I am watching: Michigan State hosting Notre Dame. The Spartans are now the torch-bearer for the Big 10 and have revenge on their minds as the Fighting Irish visit Saturday night. Michigan State's defense looks like it is for real, so maybe they will not need Andrew Maxwell to make many big plays to win. I expect the Irish to focus on Laveon Bell and make Maxwell try to beat them. I don't expect a ton of points in this one.
Upset alert: Western Michigan at Minnesota. The Broncos have not beaten a Big 10 team, but do bring an experienced quarterback and improving offense into visit the Gophers. While Minnesota is 2-0, they did need overtime to best a typically poor UNLV team. The game will likely come down to either MarQueis Gray or Alex Carder making (or not making) a key play. Last week: UCLA over Nebraska :)
Player on the spot: Montee Ball, RB, Wisconsin. The Heisman candidacy was short-lived, but its time to start winning football games. The offensive line has not helped, but Ball does not look like the same quick, decisive running back from 2011. Wisconsin needs the old Ball to get back on the winning track against an underrated Utah State team coming off a huge upset of Utah. Last week: Andrew Maxwell, 20-31, 275 yards, 2 TD in a win over Central Michigan.
ACC
What I am watching: The early-season battle of potential ACC Coastal contenders with Virginia at Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets played Virginia Tech tough and should have won the game, but that loss makes Saturday a must-win to avoid an 0-2 conference start. Virginia escaped against Penn State last week and needs to show more offensively to be a player in the ACC this season.
Upset alert: Virginia at Georgia Tech. Really the only one on the board to keep an eye on this week, but there is no reason the Cavaliers can't go into Bobby Dodd Stadium and steal a victory. Last week: Wake Forest over North Carolina :)
Player on the spot: Chase Rettig, QB, Boston College. Rettig is off to a great start in 2012 with over 600 yards passing and 5 TD's. Rettig leads the Eagles on the road at Northwestern this week and will need to continue his superb play for B.C. to have a chance at the upset. Last week: Perry Jones, 8 rushes for 14 yards and 4 catches for 14 yards in a 17-16 victory over Penn State.
SEC
What I am watching: Can Tennessee end their recent skid against the Gators or will Florida keep doing enough to get by? Things would appear to be aligning for a Volunteer victory on Saturday, but the last time Tennessee could claim bragging rights in this series was 2004. Injuries and a skittish offense might eventually do the Gators in and the Volunteers appear to be better stacked with weapons on both sides of the ball than in recent years.
Upset alert: Louisiana-Monroe at Auburn. The Tigers are 0-2 and ULM just beat Arkansas. It usually doesn't happen this way, but why not?? Last week: Northwestern over Vanderbilt :)
Player on the spot: James Franklin, QB, Missouri. After a second half beating at the hands of Georgia, Missouri hosts the white-hot offense of Arizona State this week. Franklin will need to step-up his game to keep up with the Sun Devils and avoid consecutive home losses. Last week: Dan Mullen, 28-10 winner over Auburn.
Big 12
What I am watching: How does Oklahoma State respond to last week's loss with a talented Louisiana-Lafayette visiting Stillwater? The Ragin' Cajuns are no slouch, so the Cowboys better figure out their defensive woes and turnover problems before they are staring at 1-2. The prescription might be a heavy dose of Joseph Randle and Jeremy Smith.
Upset alert: Sam Houston State at Baylor. Am I stretching on this one? Baylor looked really good in dispatching SMU in their opener but Sam Houston State was the FCS runner-up a year ago. If nothing else, expect this one to be closer than expected. Last week: Miami, FL over Kansas State (ouch!!).
Coach on the spot: Charlie Weis, Kansas. Last week's loss against Rice deflated any optimism in the Jayhawk program under it's first year coach. How Weis gets his team to respond this week as talented Big 12 newbie TCU visits will show me us a lot. Or is Weis just one of the most over-rated coaches in recent memory? Last week: Steele Jantz, 24-36, 241 Yards, 1 TD, 2 Int, 14 carries, 40 yards in Iowa State's 9-6 upset of Iowa.
PAC-12
What I am watching: USC's first big test at Stanford. I am not sure we really know who the real Stanford is at this point, but they can run the football and play solid defense which has to be a recipe to beat the Trojans. Keeping the ball away from Barkley/Redd/Lee/Woods would seem like a good idea. Detractors from USC say that depth will ultimately be their downfall, but having this one in the early season works in their favor.
Upset alert: Washington State at UNLV. The Rebels play much better at home and Mike Leach's Cougars are still an enigma. If the Rebels can cause some turnovers, Tim Cornett may be able to carry them to an upset. Last week: Illinois over Arizona State (ouch part II!!).
Player on the spot: Jon Hayes, QB, Utah. The career-ending injury to Jordan Wynn has thrust Hayes into the starting role. After failing to save the day against rival #1 Utah State, Hayes must now try to conquer rival #2 as BYU visits this week. The Cougar defense is vastly underrated, so Hayes will need an improved performance to keep the Utes in this one. Last week: Johnathan Franklin, 26 carries, 217 yards, 3 catches, 59 yards, 1 TD in the 36-30 upset of Nebraska.
Big East
What I am watching: The Thursday night tussle between Rutgers and South Florida, the first match-up between Big East favorites this season. Rutgers is struggling to find an offensive identity but boasts a strong defense. South Florida might have the top offense in the conference but has had some defensive lapses thus far. It will be interesting to see which unit shows the improvement to lead their team to victory.
Upset alert: Connecticut at Maryland. I get a little leery when I see Connecticut as a road favorite against another BCS school. I have been bashing Maryland (based on last season), but they are 2-0 coming off a win against another Big East school in Temple. Last week: Begrudgingly Maryland over Temple
Player in the spotlight: Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville. Let's put a spotlight on Mr. Bridgewater this week in a big non-conference game against North Carolina. The Tar Heels can score points, so it will be imperative for Bridgewater to continue his strong play to lead the Cardinals to victory and stamp Louisville as both a viable contender in the Big East and nationally. Last week: Ryan Nassib, 30-46, 322 yards, 2 TD, 2 Int in a 42-29 loss vs USC.
Non-BCS Conferences
What I am watching: I am always watching for how many victories the Non-BCS schools can accumulate against the BCS conferences. Ohio, Nevada, Colorado State, Utah State, Louisiana-Monroe, and Rice have done it the first two weeks with the victories over Penn State, California, Colorado, Utah, Arkansas and Kansas, respectively. Last season the total was 15. Which games this week might add to the current 6? Let's watch these 8...Louisiana-Monroe at Auburn, Texas A&M at SMU, Western Michigan at Minnesota, Ball State at Indiana, Washington State at UNLV, Colorado at Fresno State, Utah State at Wisconsin and Louisiana-Lafayette at Oklahoma State.
Upset alert: East Carolina at Southern Mississippi. Both teams have uncertain quarterback situations, so don't be surprised if the Pirates pull the upset in this closely-contested conference rivalry. Last week: North Dakota State over Colorado State (5-2 on upsets, not too bad).
Player on the spot: Rakeem Cato, QB, Marshall. Cato has a chance to make a name for himself and halt my early talk of an unbeaten season for Ohio. Through two games Cato has been superb, but a different challenge awaits him with the Bobcats defense. If he can outplay his counterpart Tyler Tettleton, Marshall could exact revenge from last year's thrashing at Ohio. Last week: Travis Bush, OC, Houston, 93 total yards, 580 yards passing in a 56-49 loss to Louisiana Tech.
Wednesday, September 12, 2012
College Football 2012 - Week 2 Recap
PAC-12
Predominant thought: The PAC-12 had a huge week 2, with UCLA, Arizona and Oregon State pulling off big upsets to support the usual winning ways of USC, Oregon and Stanford. Since we are still in the BCS Championship era, the computers will ultimately like what the PAC-12 did this week should a one-loss USC or Oregon need that support. As far as the teams pulling the upsets, UCLA looks like it might have the most staying power.
3 Quick hits:
1. Oregon Ducks (BCS National Title Game)
2. USC Trojans (Rose Bowl)
3. UCLA Bruins (Alamo Bowl)
4. Stanford Cardinal (Holiday Bowl)
5. Washington Huskies (Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl)
6. Arizona Wildcats (Sun Bowl)
7. Arizona State Sun Devils (Las Vegas Bowl)
8. Utah Utes (New Mexico Bowl)
9. Washington State Cougars
10. California Golden Bears
11. Oregon State Beavers
99. Colorado Buffaloes
Big 10
Predominant thought: And then there was one. Michigan State is the lone remaining BCS Title contender after two weeks. Ohio State would be, but they can't be. Michigan, Nebraska and Wisconsin...done. And with these performances along with those of Iowa, Purdue and Illinois, the Big 10 has almost zero chance of having a one-loss team even mentioned in BCS Title conversation.
3 Quick hits:
1. Michigan State Spartans (Rose Bowl)
2. Michigan Wolverines (Capital One Bowl)
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (Probation Bowl)
4. Nebraska Cornhuskers (Outback Bowl)
5. Wisconsin Badgers (Gator Bowl)
6. Purdue Boilermakers (Valley of the Sun Bowl)
7. Northwestern Wildcats (Texas Bowl)
8. Iowa Hawkeyes (TicketCity Bowl)
9. Illinois Fighting Illini
10. Minnesota Golden Gophers
11. Penn State Nittany Lions
12. Indiana Hoosiers
(currently not filling the Little Caesars Bowl slot)
SEC
Predominant thought: Same old, same old. Alabama and LSU are building dynasties and the other teams in the SEC can't keep up. Arkansas is the latest contender to turn into fool's gold. Yes, they lost their quarterback for the 2nd half of the Louisiana-Monroe debacle, but he was getting hit hard in the first half by the ULM defense. What is going to happen when Arkansas faces Alabama's D this weekend? I still think Georgia is the best bet to dethrone the two powers, but as the weeks go on, smart money will be on the November 3rd winner for the National Championship.
3 Quick hits:
1. Georgia Bulldogs (BCS National Title Game)
2. LSU Tigers (Sugar Bowl)
3. Alabama Crimson Tide (Cotton Bowl)
4. South Carolina Gamecocks (Capital One Bowl)
5. Arkansas Razorbacks (Outback Bowl)
6. Tennessee Volunteers (Gator Bowl)
7. Florida Gators (Chick Fil-A Bowl)
8. Mississippi State Bulldogs (BBVA Compass Bowl)
9. Texas A&M Aggies (Music City Bowl)
10. Missouri Tigers (Liberty Bowl)
11. Vanderbilt Commodores (Independence Bowl)
12. Auburn Tigers
13. Ole Miss Rebels
14. Kentucky Wildcats
Big 12
Predominant thought: Kansas State is a contender and Oklahoma State, well, we will wait and see. The Wildcats impressive win over Miami proved last season was no fluke and with Oklahoma seeming fairly mortal at this point, K-State has to be considered as part of the Big 12 race. The Cowboys learned that life with a freshman quarterback can be dicey. They also lost the turnover battle, which was a key to their success a year ago. If these trends continue, Oklahoma State will be in for a long year.
3 Quick hits:
1. West Virginia Mountaineers (Sugar Bowl)
2. Oklahoma Sooners (Fiesta Bowl)
3. Kansas State Wildcats (Alamo Bowl)
4. Texas Longhorns (Cotton Bowl)
5. TCU Horned Frogs (Holiday Bowl)
6. Oklahoma State Cowboys (Valley of the Sun Bowl)
7. Baylor Bears (Texas Bowl)
8. Texas Tech Red Raiders
9. Iowa State Cyclones
10. Kansas Jayhawks
(currently not filling the Pinstripe Bowl slot)
ACC
Predominant thought: Clemson's offense looks unstoppable and they get Sammy Watkins back this week. Stop if you thought I was writing about 2011. The Tigers are starting out fast, much like a year ago. The defense is not dominant, but the offense ranks among the most feared in the nation. They have one week to work Watkins in the mix before traveling to Florida State for one of the best games of the year. Clemson hopes the repeat trend of last season continues with another victory over the 'Noles, but hopes to reverse the repeat trend and finish stronger in 2012.
3 Quick hits:
1. Florida State Seminoles (Orange Bowl)
2. Clemson Tigers (Fiesta Bowl)
3. Virginia Tech Hokies (Chick Fil-a Bowl)
4. North Carolina State Wolfpack (Russell Athletic Bowl)
5. Virginia Cavaliers (Sun Bowl)
6. Georgia Tech Yellowjackets (Belk Bowl)
7. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (Music City Bowl)
8. North Carolina Tar Heels (Probation Bowl)
9. Miami Hurricanes
10. Maryland Terrapins
11. Duke Blue Devils
12. Boston College Eagles
(currently not filling Independence Bowl or Military Bowl slots)
Big East
Predominant thought: I like the top 4 teams in the Big East, but they might be the only 4 to go bowling this year. It should be a wild race for the Big East Championship in the last year as currently constructed, but 0-2 starts from Pitt and Syracuse (the exiting members) and a suspect offense in Connecticut have me wondering if the Big East will get more than 4 teams bowl-eligible. Right now my money says no.
3 Quick hits:
1. Rutgers Scarlett Knights (Orange Bowl)
2. Louisville Cardinals (Pinstripe Bowl)
3. Cincinnati Bearcats (BBVA Compass Bowl)
4. South Florida Bulls (Russell Athletic Bowl)
5. Connecticut Huskies
6. Syracuse Orange
7. Pittsburgh Panthers
8. Temple Owls
(currently not filling Beef O'Brady's Bowl slot)
Other Conferences/Independents
Predominant thought: It is now time to find out who the real Notre Dame and BYU are in 2012. The Fighting Irish have the Michigan State/Michigan double dip the next two weeks while the Cougars have a Utah/Boise State back-to-back over the course of five days. If either one comes out 4-0 we will have a BCS caliber team on our hands.
3 Quick hits:
1. BYU Cougars (Poinsettia Bowl)
2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Belk Bowl)
3. Ohio Bobcats (Little Caesars Bowl)
4. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (New Orleans Bowl)
5. Boise State Broncos (Las Vegas Bowl)
6. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl)
7. Utah State Aggies (Little Caesars Bowl**)
8. Nevada Wolfpack (Poinsettia Bowl)
9. Louisiana Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (GoDaddy.com Bowl)
10. Northern Illinois Huskies (GoDaddy.com Bowl)
Other Projected Bowl Eligible Teams:
Tulsa Golden Hurricane (Liberty Bowl)
SMU Mustangs (TicketCity Bowl)
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (New Orleans Bowl)
Marshall Thundering Herd (Hawaii Bowl)
East Carolina Pirates (Beef O'Brady's Bowl)
Houston Cougars (Armed Forces Bowl)
Western Michigan Broncos (Pinstripe Bowl**)
Toledo Rockets (Military Bowl**)
Bowling Green Falcons (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl)
Fresno State Bulldogs (Hawaii Bowl)
San Diego State Aztecs (Military Bowl**)
Air Force Falcons (Armed Forces Bowl)
Wyoming Cowboys (New Mexico Bowl)
Florida International Panthers (Beef O'Brady's Bowl**)
Arkansas State Redhawks (Independence Bowl**)
Navy Midshipmen (Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl)
Predominant thought: The PAC-12 had a huge week 2, with UCLA, Arizona and Oregon State pulling off big upsets to support the usual winning ways of USC, Oregon and Stanford. Since we are still in the BCS Championship era, the computers will ultimately like what the PAC-12 did this week should a one-loss USC or Oregon need that support. As far as the teams pulling the upsets, UCLA looks like it might have the most staying power.
3 Quick hits:
- Utah is in trouble with Jordan Wynn done for his career. With the PAC-12 looking deeper this year and BYU looming this week, the usually consistent Utes are going to have to step-up their game to qualify for a bowl in 2012.
- Colorado is just terrible. Plain terrible.
- The middle of the PAC-12 is going to be wild this year, and by middle I mean everyone between Oregon/USC and Colorado. A couple of these teams are going to be left home for the holidays, so each game is of high importance. Three teams with a potential disadvantage - I mentioned Utah staring at a 1-2 start, so is California (at Ohio State this week) and Oregon State is short one very winnable game at this point in time (Nicholls State cancellation).
1. Oregon Ducks (BCS National Title Game)
2. USC Trojans (Rose Bowl)
3. UCLA Bruins (Alamo Bowl)
4. Stanford Cardinal (Holiday Bowl)
5. Washington Huskies (Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl)
6. Arizona Wildcats (Sun Bowl)
7. Arizona State Sun Devils (Las Vegas Bowl)
8. Utah Utes (New Mexico Bowl)
9. Washington State Cougars
10. California Golden Bears
11. Oregon State Beavers
99. Colorado Buffaloes
Big 10
Predominant thought: And then there was one. Michigan State is the lone remaining BCS Title contender after two weeks. Ohio State would be, but they can't be. Michigan, Nebraska and Wisconsin...done. And with these performances along with those of Iowa, Purdue and Illinois, the Big 10 has almost zero chance of having a one-loss team even mentioned in BCS Title conversation.
3 Quick hits:
- My homer apology - I honestly thought Wisconsin would just plug-in offensive lineman and keep the train moving. I am sorry I was wrong. No holes for the running game. Pressure on the quarterback (fyi-Danny O'Brien lacks pocket-presence). A season of high hopes on the brink.
- Despite the upset by UCLA, Nebraska seems to be in better shape than Wisconsin, although the Husker problems are on the defensive side of the ball. Fortunately for Nebraska, a good majority of the Big 10 appears offensively challenged.
- I really don't know how good Northwestern is, but kudos to the Wildcats for a 2-0 start against 2 BCS opponents. Syracuse and Vanderbilt are not the upper-echelon, but who else is playing fellow-BCS schools this time of year? Next up: Boston College out of the ACC.
1. Michigan State Spartans (Rose Bowl)
2. Michigan Wolverines (Capital One Bowl)
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (Probation Bowl)
4. Nebraska Cornhuskers (Outback Bowl)
5. Wisconsin Badgers (Gator Bowl)
6. Purdue Boilermakers (Valley of the Sun Bowl)
7. Northwestern Wildcats (Texas Bowl)
8. Iowa Hawkeyes (TicketCity Bowl)
9. Illinois Fighting Illini
10. Minnesota Golden Gophers
11. Penn State Nittany Lions
12. Indiana Hoosiers
(currently not filling the Little Caesars Bowl slot)
SEC
Predominant thought: Same old, same old. Alabama and LSU are building dynasties and the other teams in the SEC can't keep up. Arkansas is the latest contender to turn into fool's gold. Yes, they lost their quarterback for the 2nd half of the Louisiana-Monroe debacle, but he was getting hit hard in the first half by the ULM defense. What is going to happen when Arkansas faces Alabama's D this weekend? I still think Georgia is the best bet to dethrone the two powers, but as the weeks go on, smart money will be on the November 3rd winner for the National Championship.
3 Quick hits:
- Mississippi State finally solved the Auburn hex, but what to make of these two teams now? Auburn is in a bit of trouble as they are losing the physical battle and don't have some of the usual game-breaking talent to make up for it. Mississippi State is probably exactly what we thought and will beat the teams they are supposed to and lose to the teams they are not.
- Florida is going to need to continue to have the close game magic because this offense is going nowhere in 2012. 20 points on Texas A&M is like 10 against most SEC teams.
- 2012 appeared to be a year that Vanderbilt took a step forward as a program and built on a solid 2011. Two games in and two close losses have the Commodores stuck in neutral and dangerously close to reverse. A quick glance at the schedule shows that this team has their most winnable games on the road and better find a way to come out on the plus side of close games or it will be a long 2012 in Nashville.
1. Georgia Bulldogs (BCS National Title Game)
2. LSU Tigers (Sugar Bowl)
3. Alabama Crimson Tide (Cotton Bowl)
4. South Carolina Gamecocks (Capital One Bowl)
5. Arkansas Razorbacks (Outback Bowl)
6. Tennessee Volunteers (Gator Bowl)
7. Florida Gators (Chick Fil-A Bowl)
8. Mississippi State Bulldogs (BBVA Compass Bowl)
9. Texas A&M Aggies (Music City Bowl)
10. Missouri Tigers (Liberty Bowl)
11. Vanderbilt Commodores (Independence Bowl)
12. Auburn Tigers
13. Ole Miss Rebels
14. Kentucky Wildcats
Big 12
Predominant thought: Kansas State is a contender and Oklahoma State, well, we will wait and see. The Wildcats impressive win over Miami proved last season was no fluke and with Oklahoma seeming fairly mortal at this point, K-State has to be considered as part of the Big 12 race. The Cowboys learned that life with a freshman quarterback can be dicey. They also lost the turnover battle, which was a key to their success a year ago. If these trends continue, Oklahoma State will be in for a long year.
3 Quick hits:
- Iowa State is 2-0 and with wins over Tulsa and Iowa it is one of the better 2-0 records in the country. Despite their start, the offense will need to be better against the high fliers in the Big 12. It looks like 3-6 will be all that is needed for bowl eligibility, but right now I am still not sure how they get there.
- Texas remains a bit of a mystery as the Longhorns have been good, not great, through two weeks. Is this team ready when the competition takes a step-up?
- Kansas is bad, just not Colorado bad. Losing to Rice at home is something you never tell your family about.
1. West Virginia Mountaineers (Sugar Bowl)
2. Oklahoma Sooners (Fiesta Bowl)
3. Kansas State Wildcats (Alamo Bowl)
4. Texas Longhorns (Cotton Bowl)
5. TCU Horned Frogs (Holiday Bowl)
6. Oklahoma State Cowboys (Valley of the Sun Bowl)
7. Baylor Bears (Texas Bowl)
8. Texas Tech Red Raiders
9. Iowa State Cyclones
10. Kansas Jayhawks
(currently not filling the Pinstripe Bowl slot)
ACC
Predominant thought: Clemson's offense looks unstoppable and they get Sammy Watkins back this week. Stop if you thought I was writing about 2011. The Tigers are starting out fast, much like a year ago. The defense is not dominant, but the offense ranks among the most feared in the nation. They have one week to work Watkins in the mix before traveling to Florida State for one of the best games of the year. Clemson hopes the repeat trend of last season continues with another victory over the 'Noles, but hopes to reverse the repeat trend and finish stronger in 2012.
3 Quick hits:
- Giovanni Bernard is an important piece to any success North Carolina has in their probation season. His undisclosed absence from Saturday's game does not bode well as the Heels head to Louisville this week.
- On the flip side, Wake Forest is case in point of a Week 1 over-reaction. The Demon Deacons struggled to beat Liberty, but rebounded nicely with the win over North Carolina. The recent history of Wake Forest is that their record always ends up better than we thought.
- Kudos to Maryland for exacting revenge on Temple and moving to 2-0 despite injuries and player defections. The schedule will be much more difficult from here on out, but a little confidence can go a long way in a College Football season.
1. Florida State Seminoles (Orange Bowl)
2. Clemson Tigers (Fiesta Bowl)
3. Virginia Tech Hokies (Chick Fil-a Bowl)
4. North Carolina State Wolfpack (Russell Athletic Bowl)
5. Virginia Cavaliers (Sun Bowl)
6. Georgia Tech Yellowjackets (Belk Bowl)
7. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (Music City Bowl)
8. North Carolina Tar Heels (Probation Bowl)
9. Miami Hurricanes
10. Maryland Terrapins
11. Duke Blue Devils
12. Boston College Eagles
(currently not filling Independence Bowl or Military Bowl slots)
Big East
Predominant thought: I like the top 4 teams in the Big East, but they might be the only 4 to go bowling this year. It should be a wild race for the Big East Championship in the last year as currently constructed, but 0-2 starts from Pitt and Syracuse (the exiting members) and a suspect offense in Connecticut have me wondering if the Big East will get more than 4 teams bowl-eligible. Right now my money says no.
3 Quick hits:
- I think it is ironic that I forgot to type what I was watching in the Big East Week 2 preview. There wasn't much to see here.
- You don't hear much about Cincinnati, but do not overlook the Bearcats in the Big East race. Cincinnati has recruited good depth and if the quarterback play is there, we will hear from this team before the season is out.
- "Syracuse is the best 0-2 team in the country". Really? Are you taking the 'Cuse over Auburn or Vanderbilt? Didn't think so.
1. Rutgers Scarlett Knights (Orange Bowl)
2. Louisville Cardinals (Pinstripe Bowl)
3. Cincinnati Bearcats (BBVA Compass Bowl)
4. South Florida Bulls (Russell Athletic Bowl)
5. Connecticut Huskies
6. Syracuse Orange
7. Pittsburgh Panthers
8. Temple Owls
(currently not filling Beef O'Brady's Bowl slot)
Other Conferences/Independents
Predominant thought: It is now time to find out who the real Notre Dame and BYU are in 2012. The Fighting Irish have the Michigan State/Michigan double dip the next two weeks while the Cougars have a Utah/Boise State back-to-back over the course of five days. If either one comes out 4-0 we will have a BCS caliber team on our hands.
3 Quick hits:
- Kudos to the Warhawks. While I picked Louisiana-Monroe to win the Sun Belt and cover last week against Arkansas, I did not see that upset coming. This is a really solid team that should give Auburn everything they can handle this week.
- Raise your hand if you have any clue who is going to win Conference-USA this year. After all the quarterback losses to graduation, this conference appears as unpredictable as ever this season. The conference is also off to a 6-16 start, which does not bode well for bowl-eligibility slots either, especially with one team (UCF) already out of the mix.
- Name the three conferences where every team has at least one win...The ACC and the Big 12 are the first two answers. The 3rd is the Sun Belt Conference, often maligned as the worst of the FBS conferences.
1. BYU Cougars (Poinsettia Bowl)
2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Belk Bowl)
3. Ohio Bobcats (Little Caesars Bowl)
4. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (New Orleans Bowl)
5. Boise State Broncos (Las Vegas Bowl)
6. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl)
7. Utah State Aggies (Little Caesars Bowl**)
8. Nevada Wolfpack (Poinsettia Bowl)
9. Louisiana Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (GoDaddy.com Bowl)
10. Northern Illinois Huskies (GoDaddy.com Bowl)
Other Projected Bowl Eligible Teams:
Tulsa Golden Hurricane (Liberty Bowl)
SMU Mustangs (TicketCity Bowl)
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (New Orleans Bowl)
Marshall Thundering Herd (Hawaii Bowl)
East Carolina Pirates (Beef O'Brady's Bowl)
Houston Cougars (Armed Forces Bowl)
Western Michigan Broncos (Pinstripe Bowl**)
Toledo Rockets (Military Bowl**)
Bowling Green Falcons (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl)
Fresno State Bulldogs (Hawaii Bowl)
San Diego State Aztecs (Military Bowl**)
Air Force Falcons (Armed Forces Bowl)
Wyoming Cowboys (New Mexico Bowl)
Florida International Panthers (Beef O'Brady's Bowl**)
Arkansas State Redhawks (Independence Bowl**)
Navy Midshipmen (Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl)
Friday, September 7, 2012
College Football Week 2 - Jabesblog picks
Instead of picking every game straight up this year, I thought I would go more Vegas-style and select certain games each week to pick against the spread. I skipped Week 1 as betting on Week 1 with all the unknowns seems like a losing proposition. So I start Week 2 with a 0-0 record.
Lock of the Week: Louisiana-Monroe +30.5 at Arkansas. Three factors lead me here. 1) The Arkansas defense is not necessarily strong enough to support this line. 2) Louisiana-Monroe is decent on both sides of the ball and 3) Arkansas is looking ahead to Alabama next week. Arkansas 41, Louisiana-Monroe 21.
Heavy Favorite Pick of the Week: USC -26 at Syracuse. The Trojans, even away from home, need to win big to impress voters. USC 45, Syracuse 10.
Heavy Underdog of the Week: Purdue +14 at Notre Dame. There has to be some type of travel discount for Notre Dame and I believe Purdue is slightly under-rated. I think Notre Dame wins a close one. Notre Dame 27, Purdue 24.
Other Picks of the Week:
Georgia -2 at Missouri. If the Dawgs are going to live up to billing, they have to get it together from the start this year. Georgia 38, Missouri 24.
UCLA +5 vs Nebraska. I talked about the PAC-12 factor in my Week 2 preview and Taylor Martinez needs to show me he can be that good 2 weeks in a row. UCLA 26, Nebraska 24.
Nevada +1 vs South Florida. Confidence should be high for the Wolfpack who might play with an edge as a home underdog a week after winning at Cal. Nevada 27, South Florida 20.
Louisiana Tech -3 at Houston. Houston seems like a disaster and I like Louisiana Tech this year. Tech also blew the game a year ago and gets revenge. Louisiana Tech 34, Houston 28.
Texas State +18.5 vs Texas Tech. Texas State is brimming with confidence and Texas Tech is a heavy road favorite. Texas Tech 31, Texas State 20.
Texas A&M pick'em vs Florida. Florida struggled somewhat last week and A&M brings the Sumlin magic to their offense. Texas A&M 23, Florida 17.
Lock of the Week: Louisiana-Monroe +30.5 at Arkansas. Three factors lead me here. 1) The Arkansas defense is not necessarily strong enough to support this line. 2) Louisiana-Monroe is decent on both sides of the ball and 3) Arkansas is looking ahead to Alabama next week. Arkansas 41, Louisiana-Monroe 21.
Heavy Favorite Pick of the Week: USC -26 at Syracuse. The Trojans, even away from home, need to win big to impress voters. USC 45, Syracuse 10.
Heavy Underdog of the Week: Purdue +14 at Notre Dame. There has to be some type of travel discount for Notre Dame and I believe Purdue is slightly under-rated. I think Notre Dame wins a close one. Notre Dame 27, Purdue 24.
Other Picks of the Week:
Georgia -2 at Missouri. If the Dawgs are going to live up to billing, they have to get it together from the start this year. Georgia 38, Missouri 24.
UCLA +5 vs Nebraska. I talked about the PAC-12 factor in my Week 2 preview and Taylor Martinez needs to show me he can be that good 2 weeks in a row. UCLA 26, Nebraska 24.
Nevada +1 vs South Florida. Confidence should be high for the Wolfpack who might play with an edge as a home underdog a week after winning at Cal. Nevada 27, South Florida 20.
Louisiana Tech -3 at Houston. Houston seems like a disaster and I like Louisiana Tech this year. Tech also blew the game a year ago and gets revenge. Louisiana Tech 34, Houston 28.
Texas State +18.5 vs Texas Tech. Texas State is brimming with confidence and Texas Tech is a heavy road favorite. Texas Tech 31, Texas State 20.
Texas A&M pick'em vs Florida. Florida struggled somewhat last week and A&M brings the Sumlin magic to their offense. Texas A&M 23, Florida 17.
College Football 2012 - Week 2 Preview
Big 10
What I am watching: How will Wisconsin, Nebraska and Illinois fair in a triumvirate of road games against PAC-12 squads? The left coast has not been kind to the Big 10 in the regular season or Rose Bowl, so these 3 teams are on danger alert this weekend. This will also give some indication how these two conferences stack up against each other come BCS time.
Upset alert: Nebraska at UCLA. See above, plus the uncertain status of Rex Burkhead. Can Taylor Martinez take his impressive passing show from a week ago on the road?
Player on the spot: Andrew Maxwell, QB, Michigan State. The Spartans make a road trip to Central Michigan and need to get their signal-caller going for upcoming games against Notre Dame and the Big 10. Sparty also needs receiving options to step forward and help the first-year starter.
ACC
What I am watching: Since I vested myself in North Carolina State with my 10-2 prediction for them, I am interested how they respond to the Tennessee loss with a trip at a solid Connecticut Huskies squad. An 0-2 start would be a disaster and would leave Clemson and Florida State likely in a two-team race in the ACC Atlantic.
Upset alert: North Carolina at Wake Forest. The Tar Heels looked good against Elon College, the Deacons struggled against Liberty. It wouldn't be the first time a team bounced back at home after such a performance.
Player on the spot: Perry Jones, RB, Virginia. The electric Jones may need to make some big plays to open up the passing game against a Penn State defense trying to rebound from a poor 2nd half against Ohio last week. Jones could be the difference-maker on the field Saturday in Charlottesville.
SEC
What I am watching: The two newbies, Missouri and Texas A&M get their first conference action by hosting Georgia and Florida, respectively. The two have held their own in the Big 12, but the SEC is supposed to be a different animal. A&M had their first game wiped out, so the Gators represent their opening act of 2012 with a new coach and quarterback. Based on Houston's performance last week, it appears Kevin Sumlin took a lot of offensive knowledge with him to College Station. Missouri gets Georgia and the unknown of the Dawgs suspended defensive players. Once Georgia gets back to 100%, this team should be elite. Missouri catches them at a good time.
Upset alert: Vanderbilt at Northwestern. The Commodores played South Carolina tough last week but as usual, ended up with a close loss against a supposed superior opponent. Northwestern is more on par with Vandy, but the Wildcats seem very dangerous as a home underdog.
Coach on the spot: Dan Mullen, Mississipp State. Mullen has never beaten Auburn. Last season the Bulldogs were a foot from overtime. This year Auburn appears vulnerable once again and optimism reins in Starkville. Mullen needs to find a way to beat Auburn if Mississippi State is ever going to take a step forward to the upper-division of the SEC West.
Big 12
What I am watching: Three Big 12 teams play against fellow BCS schools...Oklahoma State travels to Arizona, Iowa State slugs it out at Iowa and Kansas State hosts Miami, FL. The Big 12 did not schedule many games the likes of these, so these will provide a barometer of both these 3 teams and the conference as a whole. I am especially interested in the Kansas State/Miami game, as it was the game last year at Miami that announced Kansas State as a team to watch. A home victory here would signify that they plan on sticking around the upper-echelon in 2012.
Upset alert: Kansas State vs Miami, FL. The above being said, the Wildcats made a living of playing close games a season ago and anything can happen in such instances. The Hurricanes were good in Week 1 and have talent equal or better than K-State.
Player on the spot: Steele Jantz, QB, Iowa State. Jantz had a solid performance against Tulsa, but may need to improve on his 6.3 ypa to upset rival Iowa. It will also be Jantz's first trip into Iowa City, a place that most Cylcone quarterbacks come out with L's.
PAC-12
What I am watching: 7 PAC-12 teams are in action against fellow BCS conference teams and 2 others play non-slouches Fresno State and Utah State. With USC and Oregon already penciled-in for two match-ups that could leave both with at least one loss, the PAC-12 needs to show in these non-conference games to boost the BCS Title chances of the Trojans and Ducks. The biggest coup would be Washington going into LSU and throwing a huge wrench into the National Title picture. Regardless it will be a telling weekend in the PAC-12.
Upset alert: Arizona State vs Illinois. The Sun Devils have the PAC-12 history on their side and the offense looked impressive a week ago, but Illinois beat Arizona State a year ago and have a veteran quarterback leading them into Tempe. The Illini were a sleeper for some in the Big 10 and can capture some attention with a road win Saturday.
Player on the spot: Johnathan Franklin, RB, UCLA. If the Bruins are going to upset the Cornhuskers, Franklin is going to need to play a huge role. After thrashing Rice for 214 yards a week ago, Franklin should be bursting with confidence going in against a fairly inexperienced Husker run defense.
Big East
What I am watching:
Upset alert: Temple vs Maryland. Because their are no others on the board. I don't think this will happen either.
Player on the spot: Ryan Nassib, QB, Syracuse. If he somehow outplays Matt Barkley, is Nassib a Heisman contender?
Non-BCS Conferences
What I am watching: Will any teams from the non-BCS conferences add to the wins over BCS conference teams this week? Ohio, Nevada and Colorado State tallied wins over BCS conference teams a week ago. Potential spots for week 2...Utah State vs Utah, Texas State vs Texas Tech, Kent State at Kenucky and Rice at Kansas.
Upset alert: Colorado State vs North Dakota State. The Rams, fresh off a win vs rival Colorado, take on the FCS champions from a year-ago in North Dakota State. The talent difference will not likely be that great if Colorado State is not ready.
Coordinator on the spot: Travis Bush, OC, Houston. When your offensive coordinator resigns after one week something is amiss. Bush steps in Mike Nesbitt after last week's debacle vs Texas State. With big expectations, the Cougars need to rebound against a talented Louisiana Tech team.
What I am watching: How will Wisconsin, Nebraska and Illinois fair in a triumvirate of road games against PAC-12 squads? The left coast has not been kind to the Big 10 in the regular season or Rose Bowl, so these 3 teams are on danger alert this weekend. This will also give some indication how these two conferences stack up against each other come BCS time.
Upset alert: Nebraska at UCLA. See above, plus the uncertain status of Rex Burkhead. Can Taylor Martinez take his impressive passing show from a week ago on the road?
Player on the spot: Andrew Maxwell, QB, Michigan State. The Spartans make a road trip to Central Michigan and need to get their signal-caller going for upcoming games against Notre Dame and the Big 10. Sparty also needs receiving options to step forward and help the first-year starter.
ACC
What I am watching: Since I vested myself in North Carolina State with my 10-2 prediction for them, I am interested how they respond to the Tennessee loss with a trip at a solid Connecticut Huskies squad. An 0-2 start would be a disaster and would leave Clemson and Florida State likely in a two-team race in the ACC Atlantic.
Upset alert: North Carolina at Wake Forest. The Tar Heels looked good against Elon College, the Deacons struggled against Liberty. It wouldn't be the first time a team bounced back at home after such a performance.
Player on the spot: Perry Jones, RB, Virginia. The electric Jones may need to make some big plays to open up the passing game against a Penn State defense trying to rebound from a poor 2nd half against Ohio last week. Jones could be the difference-maker on the field Saturday in Charlottesville.
SEC
What I am watching: The two newbies, Missouri and Texas A&M get their first conference action by hosting Georgia and Florida, respectively. The two have held their own in the Big 12, but the SEC is supposed to be a different animal. A&M had their first game wiped out, so the Gators represent their opening act of 2012 with a new coach and quarterback. Based on Houston's performance last week, it appears Kevin Sumlin took a lot of offensive knowledge with him to College Station. Missouri gets Georgia and the unknown of the Dawgs suspended defensive players. Once Georgia gets back to 100%, this team should be elite. Missouri catches them at a good time.
Upset alert: Vanderbilt at Northwestern. The Commodores played South Carolina tough last week but as usual, ended up with a close loss against a supposed superior opponent. Northwestern is more on par with Vandy, but the Wildcats seem very dangerous as a home underdog.
Coach on the spot: Dan Mullen, Mississipp State. Mullen has never beaten Auburn. Last season the Bulldogs were a foot from overtime. This year Auburn appears vulnerable once again and optimism reins in Starkville. Mullen needs to find a way to beat Auburn if Mississippi State is ever going to take a step forward to the upper-division of the SEC West.
Big 12
What I am watching: Three Big 12 teams play against fellow BCS schools...Oklahoma State travels to Arizona, Iowa State slugs it out at Iowa and Kansas State hosts Miami, FL. The Big 12 did not schedule many games the likes of these, so these will provide a barometer of both these 3 teams and the conference as a whole. I am especially interested in the Kansas State/Miami game, as it was the game last year at Miami that announced Kansas State as a team to watch. A home victory here would signify that they plan on sticking around the upper-echelon in 2012.
Upset alert: Kansas State vs Miami, FL. The above being said, the Wildcats made a living of playing close games a season ago and anything can happen in such instances. The Hurricanes were good in Week 1 and have talent equal or better than K-State.
Player on the spot: Steele Jantz, QB, Iowa State. Jantz had a solid performance against Tulsa, but may need to improve on his 6.3 ypa to upset rival Iowa. It will also be Jantz's first trip into Iowa City, a place that most Cylcone quarterbacks come out with L's.
PAC-12
What I am watching: 7 PAC-12 teams are in action against fellow BCS conference teams and 2 others play non-slouches Fresno State and Utah State. With USC and Oregon already penciled-in for two match-ups that could leave both with at least one loss, the PAC-12 needs to show in these non-conference games to boost the BCS Title chances of the Trojans and Ducks. The biggest coup would be Washington going into LSU and throwing a huge wrench into the National Title picture. Regardless it will be a telling weekend in the PAC-12.
Upset alert: Arizona State vs Illinois. The Sun Devils have the PAC-12 history on their side and the offense looked impressive a week ago, but Illinois beat Arizona State a year ago and have a veteran quarterback leading them into Tempe. The Illini were a sleeper for some in the Big 10 and can capture some attention with a road win Saturday.
Player on the spot: Johnathan Franklin, RB, UCLA. If the Bruins are going to upset the Cornhuskers, Franklin is going to need to play a huge role. After thrashing Rice for 214 yards a week ago, Franklin should be bursting with confidence going in against a fairly inexperienced Husker run defense.
Big East
What I am watching:
Upset alert: Temple vs Maryland. Because their are no others on the board. I don't think this will happen either.
Player on the spot: Ryan Nassib, QB, Syracuse. If he somehow outplays Matt Barkley, is Nassib a Heisman contender?
Non-BCS Conferences
What I am watching: Will any teams from the non-BCS conferences add to the wins over BCS conference teams this week? Ohio, Nevada and Colorado State tallied wins over BCS conference teams a week ago. Potential spots for week 2...Utah State vs Utah, Texas State vs Texas Tech, Kent State at Kenucky and Rice at Kansas.
Upset alert: Colorado State vs North Dakota State. The Rams, fresh off a win vs rival Colorado, take on the FCS champions from a year-ago in North Dakota State. The talent difference will not likely be that great if Colorado State is not ready.
Coordinator on the spot: Travis Bush, OC, Houston. When your offensive coordinator resigns after one week something is amiss. Bush steps in Mike Nesbitt after last week's debacle vs Texas State. With big expectations, the Cougars need to rebound against a talented Louisiana Tech team.
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