NCAA Field of 68 - January 30, 2012 Edition

• Kentucky overall #1, followed by Syracuse, Ohio State and Baylor (side note:  the current 4 #1's all have logical Thursday/Saturday sites, throwing a wrench into the First Four.  Right now I would have Baylor moving from Albuquerque to Omaha to accommodate this.)
• Florida, Georgetown and UNLV have one potentially alarming stat for a top 3 or 4 seed. Teams seeded in the top 3 have all had 10 or more top 100 victories. These 3 teams sit with 5. Florida and UNLV have 6 games remaining against such foes (current top 100) and Georgetown 7, plus the conference tourneys where you would expect to get at least two of these games. The way I see it, if these teams cannot attain the record necessary to get to 10 Top 100 wins, they probably are out of consideration for that seed line anyway.
• Minnesota (9 to 10) and New Mexico (10 to 9) are flipping seeds for conference balance purposes
• The Atlantic 10 currently occupies 75% of my 11 line, as these teams can't figure out which way to go. 
• Iowa State, despite a still-soft resume, at least has a victory over Kansas to go with its fair computer numbers, so they are back in my field.
• Notre Dame is doing what other teams on the bubble are not...consistently winning against good competition, including on the road.  The Irish have a big week hosting Marquette and at West Virginia to try and hold a spot in the field.
• The final spots are wide-open, with Texas, Arkansas and NC State holding them right now.  Colorado State may have taken a step toward a bid, but I want to see a little more.  I just can't come to terms with the RPI of Cincinnati being in this field.  Northwestern and Stanford are going in the wrong direction and fell out this week.  Oklahoma, Mississippi and Washington are all a good run away from consideration.  Finally, a bid-stealer or two will make the bubble a little less soft.

West Regional
(1)  Baylor vs (16) Texas-Arlington/Mississippi Valley State
(8)  Southern Miss vs (9) Alabama
(5)  West Virginia vs (12) Middle Tennessee
(4)  Indiana vs (13)  Long Beach State
(6)  Louisville vs (11)  St. Louis
(3)  UNLV vs (14)  Akron
(7)  Gonzaga vs (10)  Minnesota
(2)  Duke vs (15)  Long Island

South Regional
(1)  Kentucky vs (16)  Stony Brook/UNC-Asheville
(8)  Illinois vs (9)  New Mexico
(5)  St. Mary's vs (12)  Iowa State
(4)  Georgetown vs (13)  Oral Roberts
(6)  Temple vs (11)  Seton Hall
(3)  Michigan State vs (14)  Davidson
(7)  Kansas State vs (10) Harvard
(2)  North Carolina vs (15)  Bucknell

Midwest Regional
(1)  Ohio State vs (16)  Weber State
(8)  Murray State vs (9)  California
(5)  Vanderbilt vs (12)  Notre Dame/NC State
(4)  Creighton vs (13)  Iona
(6)  Michigan vs (11)  Xavier
(3)  Marquette vs (14)  Belmont
(7)  San Diego State  vs (10)  Memphis
(2)  Missouri vs (15)  Nevada

East Regional
(1)  Syracuse vs (16)  Norfolk State
(8)  Mississippi State vs (9)  Wichita State
(5)  Florida State vs (12)  BYU
(4)  Wisconsin vs (13)  Texas/Arkansas
(6)  Virginia vs (11)  Dayton
(3)  Florida vs (14)  Cleveland State
(7)  Connecticut vs (10)  Purdue
(2)  Kansas vs (15)  George Mason

College Basketball Field of 68 - Daily Shuffle - January 27, 2012

A few minor tweaks going onto the weekend.  Michigan is the only top 5 seed that does not meet the qualifications of the past 3 years for those lines, but I have yet to figure out why their Sagarin is so low.  Florida finally got a quality road win and their Top 100 wins is up to 5, which vaults them on the board.  Despit last nights loss, I am leaving NC State put until the weekend action plays out.

Green - up, Red - down, Blue - new.

1 seeds - Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, Ohio State

2 seeds - Baylor, Missouri, Duke, North Carolina

3 seeds - Michigan State, Georgetown, UNLV, Marquette

4 seeds - Creighton, Wisconsin, West Virginia, Michigan

5 seeds - Florida State, Kansas State, Florida, Indiana
6 seeds - Vanderbilt, St. Mary's, Connecticut, San Diego State
7 seeds - Illinoi, Temple, Louisville, Virginia

8 seeds - Gonzaga, Murray State, Wichita State, Mississippi State

9 seeds - California, Southern Miss, Seton Hall, Dayton

10 seeds - Alabama, Minnesota, New Mexico, Harvard

11 seeds - Memphis, Purdue, St. Louis, Xavier

12 seeds - BYU, NC State, Middle Tennessee (Northwestern, Stanford)

13 seeds - Davidson, Iona, Oral Roberts, (Arkansas, Texas)

14 seeds - Cleveland State, Belmont, Akron, Long Beach State

15 seeds - Nevada, George Mason, Bucknell, Long Island

16 seeds - Weber State, Norfolk State, (Texas-Arlington, Stony Brook, Mississippi Valley State, UNC-Asheville)

College Basketball Field of 68 - Daily Shuffle - January 26, 2012

The shuffle continues as teams continue to lose games they shouldn't and the last few bids continue to be there for the taking.  Ohio State makes it back to the #1 line with Missouri's loss and 3 day stay there.  Seton Hall and Alabama suffer losses that drop them considerably, resulting in an upward shift for a group of teams.  BYU and St. Louis helped themselves by beating someone on the road.  I took Cincinnati and their 96 RPI out and replaced them with Texas.  Finally, Notre Dame is starting to make some noise, but still has work to do with their negative 200 +/-.

Green - up, Red - down, Blue - new.

1 seeds - Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, Ohio State
2 seeds - Baylor, Missouri, Duke, North Carolina
3 seeds - Michigan State, Georgetown, UNLV, Marquette
4 seeds - Creighton, Indiana, Wisconsin, West Virginia
5 seeds - Florida State, Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Michigan6 seeds - St. Mary's, Connecticut, Florida, San Diego State
7 seeds - Illinois, Temple, Louisville, Virginia
8 seeds - Gonzaga, Murray State, Wichita State, Mississippi State
9 seeds - California, Southern Miss, Seton Hall, Dayton
10 seeds - Alabama, Minnesota, New Mexico, Harvard
11 seeds - Memphis, Purdue, St. Louis, Xavier
12 seeds - BYU, NC State, Middle Tennessee (Northwestern, Stanford)
13 seeds - Davidson, Iona, Oral Roberts, (Arkansas, Texas)
14 seeds - Cleveland State, Belmont, Akron, Long Beach State
15 seeds - Nevada, George Mason, Bucknell, Long Island
16 seeds - Weber State, Norfolk State, (Texas-Arlington, Stony Brook, Mississippi Valley State, UNC-Asheville)

NCAA Field of 68 - January 23, 2012 Edition

• Kentucky overall #1, followed by Syracuse, Kansas and Missouri
• Louisville and Purdue are flipping seeds for location and balance purposes

West Regional
(1)  Missouri vs (16) Weber State
(8)  Gonzaga vs (9) California
(5)  Vanderbilt vs (12) Northwestern
(4)  West Virginia vs (13)  Arkansas/BYU
(6)  Connecticut vs (11)  Memphis
(3)  UNLV vs (14)  Long Beach State
(7)  Illinois vs (10)  Xavier
(2)  North Carolina vs (15)  Norfolk State

South Regional
(1)  Kentucky vs (16)  Stony Brook/Mississippi Valley State
(8)  Virginia vs (9)  Temple
(5)  Kansas State vs (12)  Cincinnati/Stanford
(4)  Indiana vs (13)  Iona
(6)  Michigan vs (11)  New Mexico
(3)  Georgetown vs (14)  Belmont
(7)  Alabama vs (10) Minnesota
(2)  Duke vs (15)  George Mason

Midwest Regional
(1)  Kansas vs (16)  UNC-Asheville/Texas-Arlington
(8)  Wichita State vs (9)  Mississipi State
(5)  Seton Hall vs (12)  St. Louis
(4)  Wisconsin vs (13)  Oral Roberts
(6)  St. Mary's vs (11)  NC State
(3)  Marquette vs (14)  Akron
(7)  San Diego State  vs (10)  Southern Miss
(2)  Ohio State vs (15)  Bucknell

East Regional
(1)  Syracuse vs (16)  Long Island
(8)  Murray State vs (9)  Purdue
(5)  Florida State vs (12)  Middle Tennessee
(4)  Creighton vs (13)  Davidson
(6)  Florida vs (11)  Harvard
(3)  Michigan State vs (14)  Cleveland State
(7)  Dayton vs (10)  Louisville
(2)  Baylor vs (15)  Nevada

Most Memorable Conference Championship Games post-1980

10.  Dallas Cowboys 30, San Francisco 49ers 20 (January 17, 1993)
This game was essentially the beginning of the Cowboys run of 3 Super Bowl Titles.  They had to go to San Francisco and beat the dynasty of the 1980's to start their run.  A 10-10 game at halftime, the Cowboys broke the game open with two long touchdown drives sandwiched around a Mike Cofer field goal to take a 24-13 lead early in the fourth.  A Jerry Rice TD with 4 minutes to play got the 49ers within four, but Troy Aikman hit Alvin Harper on a 70-yard slant and run that led to the game-sealing touchdown.

9.  Washington Redskins 24, San Francisco 49ers 21 (January 8, 1984)
Two of the dominant franchises of the 1980's met in one championship game and it turned out to be a good one.  Washington took a 21-0 lead on the 49ers in the third quarter after a Joe Theismann to Charlie Brown TD pass and the game appeared over.  Joe Montana responded with three 4th quarter TD passes, the last to Mike Wilson tying the score with 7 minutes to play.  The Redskins responded with a drive eating up all but the final 40 seconds that ended in a Mark Mosely 25-yd FG.  Mosely had previously missed four field goals in the game, but was able to connect on the short game-winner.

8.  Indianapolis Colts 38, New England Patriots 34 (January 21, 2007)
The Patriots had dominated the previous playoff games with the Colts, but Indianapolis finally had them indoors in their building.  It did not look like that was much of an advantage when New England forged a 21-6 halftime lead.  Peyton Manning would guide 5 second half scoring drives, the final one culminating in a Joseph Addai touchdown run with one minute remaining.  Tom Brady got the Pats in Colt territory, but was intercepted by Marlin Jackson sending Indy to the Super Bowl and defeating their long-time nemesis.

7.  New York Giants 15, San Francisco 49ers 13 (January 20, 1991)
The 49ers came in to this game winners of back-to-back Super Bowls and were poised for a 3rd by defeating the visiting Giants.  A Joe Montana to John Taylor TD pass gave San Francisco a 13-6 lead in the third quarter and was the only touchdown of the day.  After Matt Bahr cut the score to 13-9, Joe Montana was knocked out of the game on a hit by Leonard Marshall.  After another Bahr field goal, Roger Craig fumbled a hand off from Steve Young giving the Giants one more shot.  Jeff Hostetler marched them down the field and Bahr connected from 42 yards on the games final play to put an end to the San Francisco dynasty.

6.  Denver Broncos 38, Cleveland Browns 33 (January 17, 1988)
Meeting in the AFC Championship Game for the second year in a row, the Browns and Broncos would be hard-pressed to come close at matching the drama of the year before.  At least they came close, although it didn't start out that way.  A mistake-filled first half left the Browns behind 21-3, but when Earnest Byner scored from four yards out late in the 3rd quarter, Cleveland had closed to 28-24.  A 4 yard TD pass from Bernie Kosar to Webster Slaughter tied the game at 31 in the fourth before John Elway and Sammy Winder connected from 20 yards with 4 minutes to go giving Denver a 38-31 lead.  The Browns were marching for the game-tying score when Byner was stripped at the 3-yard line and "The Fumble" was born.  Denver took an intentional safety for the final margin and went to a second consecutive Super Bowl, while the Browns suffered a second consecutive heart-wrenching defeat and have yet to make it to football's biggest stage.

5.  Atlanta Falcons 30, Minnesota Vikings 27, OT (January 17, 1999)
The host Vikings were poised for a trip back to the Super Bowl, riding a 15-1 regular season into the NFC Championship Game vs the Falcons.  When Randall Cunningham hit Matthew Hatchette with a 5-yard TD pass with 13 minutes to go, the Vikings held a 27-17 lead.  After Atlanta cut the score to 27-20 and the teams traded possessions, Minnesota marched into Falcon territory with just over two minutes to play and set-up for the game-clinching field goal.  Gary Anderson, who had not missed all season, proceeded to be wide left from 38 yards, giving Atlanta new life.  With 49 seconds left, Chris Chandler hit Terrance Mathis to even the score and send the game to overtime.  After several punts, Morten Andersen connected from 38 yards sending the Falcons to their first Super Bowl appearance.  Minnesota became the first 15-1 team to fall short of the Super Bowl.

4.  New York Giants 23, Green Bay Packers 20, OT (January 20, 2008)
A cold day at Lambeau Field in 2008 turned out to be the swan song for the Packers legendary quarterback.  A Brett Favre to Donald Driver touchdown pass covering 90 yards was the only first half touchdown as the Packers led 10-6.  Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw had 3rd quarter touchdown runs sandwiching a Favre to Donald Lee TD pass that gave the Giants a 20-17 lead entering the 4th.  Mason Crosby tied the game early in the final stanza before New York kicker Lawrence Tynes missed twice leaving the game tied and headed to overtime.  On the second play of overtime, Favre was intercepted in Packer territory by Corey Webster and Tynes made good on his third game-winning field goal attempts sending the visiting Giants to the Super Bowl.  This would be the last pass Favre would throw as a Packer, but not the last interception he would throw in an NFC Championship Game...

3.  New Orleans Saints 31, Minnesota Vikings 28 (January 24, 2010)
Favre brought the Vikings into New Orleans, site of his biggest victory as a quarterback, trying to get them back to the Super Bowl after a long drought.  Minnesota outgained the Saints 475 to 257 on this day, but several Viking turnover left the game tied at 28 late in the fourth quarter.  Favre would lead his team to the Saints 33 before a 12-man in the huddle penalty would movie back to 3rd and 15 from the 38, just on the edge of field goal range.  Minnesota elected to try and get closer, and Favre rolled out to his right and threw back to Sidney Rice, but Saint DB Tracy Porter stepped in and intercepted the pass sending the game to overtime.  New Orleans won the coin toss and marched down for the game-winning 40 yard field goal by Garrett Hartley, aided by three replays upheld in their favor and two defensive penalties on the Vikings.  While Favre would come back for one more season, his last playoff pass for both the Packers and Vikings ended with the same result.

2.  San Francisco 49ers 28, Dallas Cowboys 27 (January 10, 1982)
In a tough decision, "The Catch" comes in at #2 on the list.  San Francisco, who had never been to a Super Bowl, battled "America's Team" at Candlestick for the NFC Championship.  Tony Dorsett gave the Cowboys a 17-14 halftime lead with a 5-yard touchdown run capping a back and forth first half.  Trailing 21-20, Everson Walls recovered a 49er fumble and Danny White connected with Doug Cosbie from 21 yards with 4:54 to play giving Dallas a 27-21 lead.  San Francisco took over at their own 11 yard line as Joe Montana directed them down the field.  On 3rd and 3 from the Cowboy 6, Montana rolled to his right looking for Freddie Solomon who was covered, pumped to get Ed "Too Tall" Jones off his feet and threw the ball toward the back of the end zone.  The pass appeared headed out of the back of the end zone when the two hands of Dwight Clark reached up and snatched the ball for a touchdown.  Eric Wright made a touchdown saving horse-collar tackle on Drew Pearson before a sack and fumble by Danny White sealed the game for San Francisco.  This game would start the 49er dynasty of the 1980's.

1.  Denver Broncos 23, Cleveland Browns 20, OT (January 11, 1987)
The #1 Championship Game happened at old Cleveland Stadium in 1987.  The game stayed tight throughout, tied 10-10 at halftime.  It wasn't until Bernie Kosar hit Brian Brennan from 48 yards out with 5:43 to play that the Browns appeared to have taken control.  Ken Bell misplayed the kickoff and was only able to fall on it at the 2 yard line, leaving the Broncos 98 yards from the game-tying score.  John Elway started the Broncos on the march, converting a huge 3rd and 18 pass to Mark Jackson with 1:47 to go.  Elway also had two scrambles for 20 yards on the drive, the second leaving them with 3rd and 1 at the Browns 5 with 39 seconds left.  Elway would again find Jackson, this time with a 5 yard TD pass to tie the score at 20 and send the game to overtime.  Cleveland would get the ball first and be forced to punt, giving Elway the ball one last time.  The future Hall-of-Famer would lead only a 60 yard drive this time, culminating in a Rich Karlis field goal and a Super Bowl date for Denver.

College Basketball Field of 68 - Daily Shuffle - January 20, 2012

Illinois not only lost to Penn State, but no longer fits a top 5 profile.  St. Mary's numbers also dropped them from a top 5 profile this morning.  I am going to keep Illinois on the 5 line and bump St. Mary's down 1 for the time being, since this is all fluid.  Vanderbilt gets a big win over Alabama and moves into the top 5 profile mix.  BYU and Stanford suffered losses that moved them dangerously close to the bubble.

Green - up, Red - down, Blue - new.

1 seeds - Syracuse, Kentucky, Baylor, Duke
2 seeds - Kansas, Ohio State, Missouri, Georgetown
3 seeds - North Carolina, Michigan State, UNLV, Marquette
4 seeds - Michigan, Creighton, West Virginia, Vanderbilt
5 seeds - Seton Hall, Alabama, Indiana, Illinois
6 seeds - St. Mary's, Connecticut, Virginia, Wisconsin
7 seeds - San Diego State, Kansas State, Gonzaga, Wichita State
8 seeds - Temple, Purdue, Florida, Murray State
9 seeds - California, Mississippi State, Xavier, Louisville
10 seeds - Dayton, Southern Miss, Harvard, Florida State
11 seeds - Northwestern, New Mexico, Marshall, Minnesota
12 seeds - Stanford, Memphis, (Cincinnati, BYU, St. Louis, NC State)
13 seeds - Davidson, Iona, Oral Roberts, Middle Tennessee
14 seeds - George Mason, Belmont, Akron, Long Beach State
15 seeds - Nevada, Wagner, Weber State, Norfolk State
16 seeds - Bucknell, UW-Milwaukee, (Texas-Arlington, Stony Brook, Mississippi Valley State, UNC-Asheville)

College Basketball Field of 68 - Daily Shuffle - January 19, 2011

The results of the bracket builder are in.  I know it is a lot of changes, but as we get closer to Selection Sunday, the data becomes more relevant.

Green - up, Red - down, Blue - new.

1 seeds - Syracuse, Kentucky, Baylor, Duke
2 seeds - Kansas, Ohio State, Missouri, Georgetown
3 seeds - North Carolina, Michigan State, Illinois, UNLV
4 seeds - Michigan, Creighton, West Virginia, Marquette
5 seeds - Seton Hall, Alabama, Indiana, St. Mary's
6 seeds - Connecticut, Virginia, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin
7 seeds - San Diego State, Kansas State, Gonzaga, Wichita State
8 seeds - Temple, Purdue, Florida, Murray State
9 seeds - California, Mississippi State, Xavier, Louisville
10 seeds - Dayton, Southern Miss, Harvard, Florida State
11 seeds - Northwestern, Stanford, BYU, New Mexico
12 seeds - Marshall, Minnesota, (Cincinnati, Memphis, St. Louis, NC State)
13 seeds - Davidson, Iona, Oral Roberts, Middle Tennessee
14 seeds - George Mason, Belmont, Akron, Long Beach State
15 seeds - Nevada, Wagner, Weber State, Norfolk State
16 seeds - Bucknell, UW-Milwaukee, (Texas-Arlington, Stony Brook, Mississippi Valley State, UNC-Asheville)

College Basketball Field of 68 - Building the Bracket

There was a lot of action Wednesday Night in the world of College Basketball, with more upsets to consider when shuffling the bracket.  There was especially a lot of movement in the 3 to 9 lines of the bracket, so I decided to show how I am currently building my bracket.  I will follow with the Daily Shuffle to provide a more concise look at my changes today.

The #1's - The top seeds usually have the highest +/- vs the RPI top 200.  Syracuse, Kentucky and Duke lead the way here.  Baylor is 6th, but Creighton and Missouri, who are 4th and 5th have an RPI or Sagarin outside the top 10, which no top seed has had in the last 3 years.  Syracuse, Kentucky, Duke and Baylor also have the top 4 average RPI and Sagarin's this morning.

The next step is to put the pool together of teams with RPI and Sagarin ratings both in the top 30.  In the last 3 years, every team seeded 5th or higher had both these ratings in the top 30.  Excluding the top seeds, this pool would include Kansas (9 RPI ,2 Sagarin), Ohio State (10,4), Michigan State (4,8), North Carolina (17,9), Missouri (13,6), UNLV (8,10), Georgetown (15,12), Indiana (24,13), Illinois (18,30), Seton Hall (5,29), West Virginia (14,20), Marquette (11,16), Creighton (19,14), Wichita State (25,15), Murray State (29,24), St. Mary's (26,17), Gonzaga (12,23), Kansas State (27,19), Alabama (20,18) and Michigan (23,27).  That is 20 teams for 16 spots.

I am going to combine three indicators in my next step.  I am still going to keep an eye on the +/- vs RPI top 200, but I am also going to bring RPI top 100 victories into the mix more prominently (Teams ranked below in order of RPI top 100 wins).  Finally, all teams on the top 4 lines had at least one RPI top 25 win, so teams with a zero there will have a 5 seed ceiling.

Teams (Top 100 wins, 200 +/-, Top 25 wins)
Kansas (8,8,3)
West Virginia (8,7,1)
Marquette (8,7,0)
Creighton (7,11,1)
Illinois (7,6,2)
Missouri (6,10,1)
Michigan (6,7,1)
Michigan State (5,8,2)
Ohio State (5,7,2)
Seton Hall (5,7,2)
North Carolina (5,7,1)
Georgetown (5,6,2)
Alabama (5,5,1)
Kansas State (5,4,2)
St. Mary's (5,7,1)
UNLV (4,6,2)
Indiana (4,4,3)
Wichita State (3,9,1)
Murray State (3,8,1)
Gonzaga (3,8,0)

Impressions - Marquette and Gonzaga immediately have a 5 seed ceiling.  Murray State and Wichita State with only 3 top 100 wins seemed destined for a lower seed than some of their other indicators.  The Shockers remind me a lot of Old Dominion last year who received a 9 seed despite high ratings and other indicators.  I had ODU as a 6 last year and that did not work out.  Four other teams need to be removed from the 2-4 lines.  Indiana and Kansas State are my next two candidates, both ranking toward the bottom in both top 100 and 200 +/-.  Working my way up, UNLV is in with both an RPI and Sagarin in the Top 10, which has been a top 3 seed guarantee the past 3 years.  With the West Coast conference rated 11th, St. Mary's is my next bump from the top 4 line.  My final spot comes down to Alabama and Seton Hall, and despite losses to South Florida and Villanova, the Hall's top 5 RPI and slightly better indicators keeps them in the top 4 lines.

The #2's - Missouri's +10 vs top 200 and overall win-loss record can not be ignored here.  Kansas with 3 top 25 wins 8 top 100 wins is an easy choice as well.  My third choice here is Ohio State, which will likely get a one-loss subtraction for missing Jared Sullinger at Kansas, giving them essentially only 2 losses, better than every other Big 6 conference team in the pool.  The fourth spot is a bit tougher.  Michigan State has the highest rankings, but lost to North Carolina and has one more overall loss.  UNLV has just three losses and a victory over North Carolina, but with just 4 top 100 wins and the typical Mountain West -1 factor, they look more like a 3 seed.  West Virginia, Creighton, Michigan and Illinois are currently too low in the Sagarin and RPI for a #2.  Which leaves Georgetown and North Carolina, each with 3 losses as the choices.  Georgetown's 5 top 50 wins are 3rd behind Duke and Baylor, and I do not have ACC bias like the committee, so I am going with the Hoyas here.

The #3's - North Carolina drops to the top of the 3 line.  Michigan State and UNLV have both an RPI and Sagarin in the top 10, which locks a 3 seed for each based on 3 year's history.  I am still not ready for Creighton, leaving West Virginia and Illinois as my choices here.  While the Mountaineers have one more top 100 win, the Illini have two less overall losses and one more top 25 win.

The #4's - That leaves West Virginia, Creighton, Michigan and Seton Hall.  I am going to use my eye test and veto power here.  Despite no RPI top 25 wins, Marquette has 8 top 100 wins to the Pirates 5.  Marquette does have one top 25 Sagarin win at Wisconsin, I just have no past Sagarin data to go with.  Finally, right now the Golden Eagles are playing better than Seton Hall, so they are my choice.

The #5's - Seton Hall leads off the #5 line.  I now have to go back to my pool of 7 and get the final three teams with top 30 RPI's and Sagarin's to fill out this line.  The bottom three on the list, Murray State, Wichita State and Gonzaga are easy eliminators as previously discussed.  Indiana's 3 top 25 wins are enough to keep them safely here, but like Seton Hall, a recent slump has them falling.  I am also ready for a 2-loss St. Mary's team here.  Which leaves Alabama and Kansas State for the final 5 seed.  With the Tide ahead in both rankings, I will take a second SEC team before a fourth Big 12.

The #6's - Connecticut and Virginia are now eligible, each with 6 top 100 wins and at least a +6 vs the top 200.  UConn's RPI/Sagarin disparity will be interesting to deal with if it persists.  Joining Kansas State (5,4,2) and Gonzaga (3,8,0) in this pool is Vanderbilt (5,5,1), San Diego State (5,7,1) and Wisconsin (6,5,1).   I am going to play another extenuating circumstance card here.  Vanderbilt has played much better since the return of Festus Ezeli, so they stick here as a #6.  Wisconsin has an RPI/Sagarin disparity that is hard to gauge, but only BYU has a top 11 Sagarin and fell below a 4 seed.  The Badgers also have 4 top 50 wins, to 2 for Kansas State, Gonzaga and San Diego State.

The #7's - We start to get into more exceptions as we go.  10 out of 12 teams on the 7 line the past 3 years have had both ratings indicators of 41 or higher.  The two that didn't had 3 top 25 wins and I don't have any of those teams remaining.  Kansas State, San Diego State and Gonzaga all meet this criteria.  California and BYU also do, but have no top 50 wins which presents another issue.  The only two at-large teams without a top 50 win were Clemson and UAB last year, and they were awarded 12 seeds.  Hold on those two teams for now.  Memphis and Southern Miss meet the criteria from Conference USA, but both seem to benefit from the inexplicable C-USA ratings bloat and also should be seeded at or below Murray State who defeated both.  Florida, Purdue and Temple just miss, so it appears it is also finally Wichita State time.

The #8's - The 8's have had both ranking indicators in the top 50.  Xavier, Harvard, Northwestern, Louisville and Florida State are added to those already mentioned.  Temple and Purdue each have 2 Top 25 wins and 5 top 100 wins and lock themselves in here.  4-loss Florida eats another spot, despite a lack of any great wins.  A major conference team with less losses usually gets the nod though.  Finally, I am giving Murray State the final 8 spot.  As long as they are undefeated they must be considered a little different than other low-major schools have in the past (Utah State with 3 losses and a 15 RPI got a 12 seed last year).

The #9's - In an effort to curtail west-coast bias, the PAC-12 has been slightly over-seeded the past couple years.  Despite no top 50 wins, I don't see the PAC-12 champion falling below a #9.  Right now I project California to be that champion.  As with the 8's, the 9's in all but one case have both indicators in the top 51.  That adds Mississippi State to the mix, who with two top 25 wins and no bad losses gets one of the spots.  Xavier has 6 top 100 wins and appears to have righted their ship and projects as the Atlantic 10 champion, though seeded behind Temple at this point.  Finally, Louisville, while sliding, gets the Villanova treatment of a year ago due to their 5 top 100 wins.

The #10's - I will use roughly 56 as the ratings cap for the #10's.  Dayton and its 2 top 25 and 6 top 100 wins finally qualifies.  Florida State with 5 top 100 wins and the thrashing of North Carolina also lands here.  Harvard owns a win over Florida state, so this appears like the proper spot to add them, although each loss drops Harvard a seed from here on out.  Southern Miss gets an at-large out of the C-USA and uses their RPI of 16 to get the final 10 seed.

The #11's - The indicators are lost when you get here, except that good wins and top 100 wins appeared to be a factor for the remaining at-large spots a year-ago.  Northwestern has 2 top 25 wins.  Stanford, with 1 top 25 win and just 3 losses also lands here.  Finally, BYU and New Mexico, despite zero top 50 wins, get the last two 11's with high Sagarins.

The #12's - Marshall is the current C-USA champ, so they are out of the first four and get a #12 with their 4 top 100 wins.  Minnesota also has 4 top 100 wins and claims the other non-First Four 12 slot.  Despite an extremely low RPI, Cincinnati now has 2 top 25 wins and 5 top 100 wins and joins the field here.  Memphis, NC State and St. Louis, with 3 top 100 wins each and higher indicators than others at this level garner the final spots.  Texas and Iowa State each have just 1 top 100 win, which doesn't stack up.  Northern Iowa is fading and 7 losses just won't do it right now for an at-large team. 

The #13's - Davidson has a top 25 win, while Middle Tennessee, Oral Roberts, and Iona have superior top 100 and 200 +/- over the remaining automatic qualifiers.

The #14's - Akron, Belmont, Long Beach State, and George Mason all have at least two top 100 wins, more than any of the other remaining automatic qualifiers.

The #15's - Nevada, Wagner, Weber State and Norfolk State have the next best resumes.

The #16's - UW-Milwaukee and Bucknell are next, with UNC-Asheville, Stony Brook, Texas-Arlington and Missisippi Valley State rounding things out.

Bracket Built and Trade Secrets revealed!!

College Basketball Field of 68 - Daily Shuffle - January 18, 2012

A quiet Tuesday, with really only the Michigan victory over Michigan State altering the bracket.  Did you know that Michigan now has 5 top 50 RPI wins, tied with Georgetown for 3rd most behind Duke and Baylor?  North Carolina's punishment lasted all of 2 days but they better start proving it on the court.

Green - up, Red - down, Blue - new.

1 seeds - Syracuse, Kentucky, Baylor, Duke
2 seeds - Kansas, Ohio State, Missouri, North Carolina
3 seeds - Michigan State, Georgetown, Connecticut, Illinois
4 seeds - Indiana, UNLV, Seton Hall, Michigan
5 seeds - Alabama, Creighton, Virginia, St. Mary's
6 seeds - Marquette, Gonzaga, West Virginia, Vanderbilt
7 seeds - San Diego State, California, Mississippi State, Florida
8 seeds - Louisville, Kansas State, Wisconsin, Dayton
9 seeds - Murray State, Wichita State, New Mexico, Purdue
10 seeds - Northwestern, Temple, Memphis, BYU
11 seeds - Southern Miss, Stanford, Harvard, Florida State
12 seeds - Minnesota, Xavier (Texas, Marshall, St. Louis, NC State)
13 seeds - Davidson, Iona, Oral Roberts, Middle Tennessee
14 seeds - George Mason, Belmont, Akron, Long Beach State
15 seeds - UW-Milwaukee, Nevada, Wagner, Weber State
16 seeds - Bucknell, Norfolk State, (Texas-Arlington, Stony Brook, Mississippi Valley State, UNC-Asheville)

College Basketball Field of 68 - Daily Shuffle - January 17, 2012

Despite the loss, Baylor maintains their #1 seeding.  Otherwise, a quiet Monday, with only Louisville and Florida flipping spots and changes on the 16 line.

Green - up, Red - down, Blue - new.

1 seeds - Syracuse, Kentucky, Baylor, Duke
2 seeds - Kansas, Ohio State, Missouri, Michigan State
3 seeds - North Carolina, Georgetown, Connecticut, Illinois
4 seeds - Indiana, UNLV, Seton Hall, Alabama
5 seeds - Creighton, Virginia, St. Mary's, Michigan
6 seeds - Marquette, Gonzaga, West Virginia, Vanderbilt
7 seeds - San Diego State, California, Mississippi State, Florida
8 seeds - Louisville, Kansas State, Wisconsin, Dayton
9 seeds - Murray State, Wichita State, New Mexico, Purdue
10 seeds - Northwestern, Temple, Memphis, BYU
11 seeds - Southern Miss, Stanford, Harvard, Florida State
12 seeds - Minnesota, Xavier (Texas, Marshall, St. Louis, NC State)
13 seeds - Davidson, Iona, Oral Roberts, Middle Tennessee
14 seeds - George Mason, Belmont, Akron, Long Beach State
15 seeds - UW-Milwaukee, Nevada, Wagner, Weber State
16 seeds - Bucknell, Norfolk State, (Texas-Arlington, Stony Brook, Mississippi Valley State, UNC-Asheville)

NCAA Field of 68 - January 16, 2012 Edition

• Syracuse still overall #1, followed by Kentucky, Baylor and Duke
• I did a little more numbers research this week, which resulted in some minor shuffling.
• Dropped North Carolina to a #3 after their display this weekend.  I don't think the Tar Heels will end up here, but their resume isn't exactly providing a wow factor right now.
• Marshall and St. Louis are the last 2 in this week, both with 3 top 100 RPI wins.  Arkansas and Cincinnati both sit with 3 top 100 wins and comparable 200 +/- numbers, but have RPI's and Sagarins too low for an at-large team. 
• Colorado State has an RPI of 20, but looking at their resume, it doesn't have anything that would support a berth right now.
• Florida and Louisville have surprisingly spotty resumes and each have two 100+ RPI losses.  I would expect Florida to improve their seed as we move forward, but Louisville might have too many injuries.
• Although I have Davidson and Iona seeded 13, they would be interesting at-large cases if they lose in the finals of thier conference tourney and don't suffer more damage in the next six weeks.  Harvard would be a similar case if it loses the Ivy League, but that would take at least two more losses.  Murray State would be in as an at-large with one loss, but would be a very interesting case with two.

South Regional
(1)  Duke vs (16) Albany/Texas-Arlington
(8)  Florida vs (9) New Mexico
(5)  Creighton vs (12) Texas/St. Louis
(4)  Indiana vs (13)  Iona
(6)  Gonzaga vs (11)  Southern Miss
(3)  Connecticut vs (14)  Belmont
(7)  Louisville vs (10)  Northwestern
(2)  Kansas vs (15)  Weber State

Midwest Regional
(1)  Kentucky vs (16)  Bucknell
(8)  Wisconsin vs (9)  Wichita State
(5)  Virginia vs (12)  Minnesota
(4)  Seton Hall vs (13)  Oral Roberts
(6)  Marquette vs (11)  Stanford
(3)  Illinois vs (14)  George Mason
(7)  San Diego State vs (10) Temple
(2)  Missouri vs (15)  Nevada

West Regional
(1)  Baylor vs (16)  Norfolk State
(8)  Dayton vs (9)  Purdue
(5)  St. Mary's vs (12)  NC State/Marshall
(4)  UNLV vs (13)  Middle Tennessee
(6)  Vanderbilt vs (11)  Florida State
(3)  Georgetown vs (14)  Long Beach State
(7)  California  vs (10)  Memphis
(2)  Ohio State vs (15)  Wisconsin-Milwaukee

East Regional
(1)  Syracuse vs (16)  UNC-Asheville/Texas Southern
(8)  Kansas State vs (9)  Murray State
(5)  Michigan vs (12)  Xavier
(4)  Alabama vs (13)  Davidson
(6)  West Virginia vs (11)  Harvard
(3)  North Carolina vs (14)  Akron
(7)  Mississippi State vs (10)  BYU
(2)  Michigan State vs (15)  Wagner

College Basketball Field of 68 - Daily Shuffle - January 13, 2012

Lots of little shuffles today.  I re-considered my Missouri vs Connecticut for a 2 seed.  As it stands right now, the teams on the top two lines have two losses or less.  I am sure the weekend will shake things up even more.

Green - up, Red - down, Blue - new.

1 seeds - Syracuse, Kentucky, Baylor, North Carolina
2 seeds - Duke, Michigan State, Indiana, Missouri
3 seeds - Ohio State, Georgetown, Kansas, Connecticut
4 seeds - Alabama, UNLV, Seton Hall, Illinois
5 seeds - Michigan, Virginia, Louisville, St. Mary's
6 seeds - Gonzaga, Marquette, Kansas State, Creighton
7 seeds - Florida, West Virginia, San Diego State, Vanderbilt
8 seeds - Mississippi State, California, Temple, Dayton
9 seeds - Wichita State, New Mexico, Murray State, Wisconsin
10 seeds - Purdue, So. Mississippi, BYU, St. Louis
11 seeds - Stanford, Iowa State, Harvard, Memphis
12 seeds - Northwestern, Texas (Xavier, Florida State, Northern Iowa, NC State)
13 seeds - Iona, Cleveland State, Ohio, Long Beach State
14 seeds - George Mason, Middle Tennessee, Davidson, Oral Roberts
15 seeds - Belmont, Nevada, Wagner, Weber State
16 seeds - Lamar, Norfolk State, (Bucknell, Maine, Southern U., UNC-Asheville)

Most Memorable Divisional Playoff Games post-1980

Wildcard weekend is complete and the Pittsburgh-Denver game probably bumps onto the wildcard list at #6 or #7.  It is on the the Divisional Playoff Round, which for a rare instance involves the 8 Division Champions.  My apologies to the immaculate reception and some of the other great finishes of the 1970's, but here are my most memorable Divisional Playoff Games since 1980.

11. Pittsburgh Steelers 21, Indianapolis Colts 18 (January 15, 2006)
This is the game that seems to have changed the perception of a wildcard team.  The 6th-seeded Steelers upset the top-seeded Colts, becoming the first 6-seed to do so and advance to a Conference Championship Game.  Pittsburgh jumped out to a 14-0 first quarter lead and frustrated Peyton Manning all day with mixed up blitzes and coverages.  Indianapolis still managed to close the gap to three and had a chance to tie, but Mike Vanderjagt missed a 46 yard field goal with 17 seconds left.  The Steelers would go on to become the first team to win the Super Bowl as a 6 seed.

10.  Denver Broncos 26, Houston Oilers 24 (January 4, 1992)
It wasn't as dramatic as "The Drive", but John Elway was up to his old tricks on a January day at Mile High.  The Oilers used three Warren Moon touchdown passes to forge a 21-6 lead over the Broncos, before #7 started his usual comeback antics.  The final act was a drive starting at, you guessed it, the Broncos 2-yard line trailing 24-23 with 2 minutes left.  Elway converted two fourth downs, one with his legs and one with his arm and David Treadwell culminated the drive with a 28 yard FG with 16 seconds left and another chapter in the legend of John Elway.

9.  Jacksonville Jaguars 30, Denver Broncos 27 (January 4, 1997)
The Jaguars were still considered an expansion team, until they came into Mile High and surprised the AFC's top-seeded Broncos.  Denver took a 12-0 lead in this game and appeared to be cruising as everyone expected.  Mark Brunell, Jimmy Smith and company scored the next 23 points to stun the Broncos.  The teams traded scores, but ultimately Denver could not recover their last gasp on-side kick and John Elway could not perform his magic.

8.  Chicago Bears 20, Philadelphia Eagles 12 (December 31, 1988)
Based on the score of this game, you may initially wonder why this one made the list.  This game is more fondly remembered as the "Fog Bowl", a game played in dense fog where by the second half, visibility was only 15 to 20 yards and television viewing was a challenge.  Most of the scoring occurred early in the game when the fog was less intense, and despite over 400 yards passing from Randall Cunningham, the Eagles could only muster four field goals.

7.  Cleveland Browns 34, Buffalo Bills 30 (January 6, 1990)
While not as famous as Jackie Smith's drop, this game is most remembered for Ronnie Harmon dropping the winning touchdown in the end zone.  The Bills would not lose an AFC playoff game the next four years, and some might wonder if it would have been 5 straight Super Bowls had Harmon caught the ball.  Instead, Clay Matthews would intercept Jim Kelly on the next play with 3 seconds remaining to preserve a shootout victory for the Browns.  The Browns would of course run into their nemesis the next week and fall short of the Super Bowl again.

6.  Dallas Cowboys 30, Atlanta Falcons 27 (January 4, 1981)
Who remembers the likes of Steve Bartkowski, William Andrews and Alfred Jenkins?  More people might remember if the Falcons had not blown a two touchdown lead at home against the Cowboys and squandered their chance to host an NFC Title Game.  Dallas rallied for three 4th quarter touchdowns, the final two courtesy of Danny White to Drew Pearson TD passes.  The first came with 3 minutes remaining and the game-winner with 47 seconds left.  Atlanta was unable to respond and this really good Falcon team became just a footnote.

5.  Carolina Panthers 29, St. Louis Rams 23, 2OT (January 10, 2004)
In the span of two days in 2004, the Divisional Playoff Round gave us four games decided by 7 points or less.  The two AFC games were good, but the two NFC games were worthy of the next two spots on this list.  We will start with the game that signaled the demise of the "Greatest Show on Turf".  The high-powered Rams offense was relegated to field goals for most of the game, with their only touchdown cutting the Panthers lead to 23-20 with a little over 2 minutes remaining.  The Rams were able to recover an onside kick and drove deep in Carolina territory, but played for overtime.  The first overtime saw each team miss a game-winning field goal, before the Rams once again were on the move.  This time, it was a Marc Bulger interception that kept the Panthers alive and on the first play of the 2nd overtime, Jake Delhomme found a streaking Steve Smith for a 69-yard game-winning touchdown pass.  Carolina would go on to upset Philadelphia the next week and reach their first Super Bowl.

4.  Philadelphia Eagles 20, Green Bay Packers 17, OT (January 11, 2004)
The next day, Philadelphia and Green Bay tried to top the drama of the day before.  The Packers controlled the majority of this game, racing out to a 14-0 lead.  It was a goal-line stand in the second quarter that seemed to turn the game, as the Eagles were able to stop the Packers at the one-yard line on 4 attempts and go into halftime only down 14-7.  Green Bay still led 17-14 when they were forced to punt and the Eagles took over at their own 20 with a little over two minutes left.  A few plays later, Philadelphia faced a 4th down and 26 yards to go to keep their season alive.  Inexplicably, Donovan McNabb found Freddie Mitchell for 28 yards and a first down leading to the game-tying FG from David Akers.  The Packers would have one offensive play in overtime, a Brett Favre pass intercepted by Brian Dawkins that set-up the game clincher from Akers and continued the playoff frustrations that plagued Favre in his later years in Green Bay.

3.  Cleveland Browns 23, New York Jets 20, 2OT (January 3, 1987)
The third longest game in NFL history took place in January 1987.  The Jets and Browns battled at Cleveland Stadium for an extra 17:02 before Cleveland prevailed on a Mark Mosely field goal.  I remember watching this one and thinking it was so cool because it was the first double overtime game I ever saw.  It was a close game through the first three quarters, but Freeman McNeil put the Jets up 20-10 with 4:14 to go in the fourth and the New Yorkers seemed poised for the upset.  Bernie Kosar rallied the Browns with two scoring drives, each aided with key Jets penalties, to tie the score and send the game to overtime.  Browns kicker Mark Mosely would miss a 23 yard field goal in the first overtime period, but would get a chance to redeem himself with the 27-yard game-winner in the second OT.  Bernie Kosar would set the post-season record for completions, attempts and yards, going 33-64 for 483 yards, but just one TD.  Next week, we will re-visit the game played the next week by Cleveland.

2.  New England Patriots 16, Oakland Raiders 13, OT (January 19, 2002)
There are not many games that in it of themselves create a rule change.  This one will be forever known as the game that introduced us to the "Tuck Rule", a rule then NFL lived without for 80 years.  The game itself was not pretty, as the teams plodded through heavy snowfall and provided a busy day for the punters.  Oakland held a 13-3 lead entering the 4th quarter until Tom Brady's 6 yard run cut the Patriot deficit to 13-10.  New England's last chance to tie the game resulted in controversy, as with 1:47 remaining it appeared Brady had fumbled and the Raiders would be able to run out the clock.  Replay officials overturned the fumble, citing the "Tuck Rule", and New England maintained possession.  Adam Vinatieri then cut a 45 yard FG through a tough wind to tie the game and hit a 23 yarder on the first possession of overtime.  Without the "Tuck Rule", the first Super Bowl in New England's impressive run would not have occurred.

1.  San Diego Chargers 41, Miami Dolphins 38, OT (January 2, 1982)
By the score and the year you might think this was Dan Fouts vs Dan Marino, but Marino wasn't drafted until after this game in 1982 and it was actually Don Strock who helped light up the scoreboard on this day.  After the first quarter, this game appeared over, as San Diego raced to a 24-0 lead.  The Dolphins closed to 24-10 with one play left in the first half.  Miami executed a perfect hook-and-lateral play with Duriel Harris and Tony Nathan, with Nathan taking it the final 25 yards on the final play of the half to make it 24-17.  The offensive explosion continued in the second half, with the Dolphins actually taking a 38-31 lead before a Fouts to James Brooks pass with a minute left tied it at 38.  Miami had time to move into field goal range, but Charger All-Pro TE Kellen Winslow blocked Uwe von Schamann's game-winning attempt and forged overtime.  The teams traded missed field goals and punts before Rolf Benirschke kicked the game winner. Kellen Winslow was essentially dragged off the field due to exhaustion, an image played often still today, and the Chargers got to pack their long johns and go to Cincinnati.

College Football 2011 Wrap-up - What-if Playoff

Time to tie a bow on the 2011 College Football Season.  As a huge proponent of a playoff system, I like to imagine what would have happened had 2011 brought us this format.  Plus-one is great, but I would rather see an 8 or a 16 team playoff.  I even threw out a 14 team model this year.  With the help of What-if-Sports, here is how a 16-team playoff field played out (Each game is determined using a best of 7 simulation, with the score used being the clinching game for the winning team.  The first round is played at the higher seed, with the remaining games played on neutral fields.)  The playoff field includes the 11 conference champions and 5 at-large berths, with no maximum in regards to a conference.  Final BCS rankings used for seeding.

(16) Arkansas State (Sun Belt) at (1) LSU (SEC)
(9)  Wisconsin (Big 10) at (8) Kansas State (at-large)
(13) West Virginia (Big East) at (4) Stanford (at-large)
(12) Southern Miss (C-USA) at (5) Oregon (PAC-12)
(11) TCU (Mountain West) at (6) Arkansas (at-large)
(14) Northern Illinois (MAC) at (3) Oklahoma State (Big 12)
(10) Clemson (ACC) at (7) Boise State (at-large)
(15) Louisiana Tech (WAC) at (2) Alabama (at-large)

First Round
LSU 37, Arkansas State 10  Boxscore from WhatifSports
Wisconsin 34, Kansas State 13  Boxscore from WhatifSports
Stanford 33, West Virginia 31  Boxscore from WhatifSports
Oregon 63, Southern Miss 45  Boxscore from WhatifSports
Arkansas 44, TCU 37, 2OT  Boxscore from WhatifSports
Oklahoma State 66, Northern Illinois 7  Boxscore from WhatifSports
Boise State 70, Clemson 21  Boxscore from WhatifSports
Alabama 28, Louisiana Tech 20  Boxscore from WhatifSports

Quarterfinals
LSU 32, Wisconsin 30  Boxscore from WhatifSports
Stanford 45, Oregon 34  Boxscore from WhatifSports
Oklahoma State 45, Arkansas 24  Boxscore from WhatifSports
Alabama 48, Boise State 16  Boxscore from WhatifSports
(I guess the +1 format might be fine)

Semifinals
LSU 43, Stanford 22  Boxscore from WhatifSports
Alabama 47, Oklahoma State 44  Boxscore from WhatifSports
(The BCS got it right??)

Championship
Alabama 38, LSU 6  Boxscore from WhatifSports
(Wow, same result.  Oh well, I still think Oklahoma State deserved their shot)

College Basketball Field of 68 - Daily Shuffle - January 12, 2012

All the shuffling today is with the lower seeds, as teams within the top 7 lines took care of business.

Green - up, Red - down, Blue - new.

1 seeds - Syracuse, Kentucky, Baylor, North Carolina
2 seeds - Duke, Michigan State, Indiana, Connecticut
3 seeds - Ohio State, Missouri, Georgetown, Kansas
4 seeds - Alabama, UNLV, Virginia, Seton Hall
5 seeds - Michigan, Louisville, Gonzaga, Illinois
6 seeds - Florida, Marquette, Kansas State, Creighton
7 seeds - West Virginia, St. Mary's, San Diego State, Vanderbilt
8 seeds - Mississippi State, Purdue, California, Temple
9 seeds - Dayton, Wichita State, New Mexico, Murray State
10 seeds - So. Mississippi, BYU, Stanford, St. Louis
11 seeds - Northwestern, Iowa State, Harvard, Memphis
12 seeds - Iona, Wisconsin, Texas (Xavier, Florida State)
13 seeds - Cleveland State, George Mason, Ohio, (Northern Iowa, NC State)
14 seeds - Middle Tennessee, Long Beach State, Belmont, Davidson
15 seeds - Nevada, Oral Roberts, Robert Morris, Weber State
16 seeds - Lamar, Norfolk State, (Lehigh, Maine, Southern U., Coastal Carolina)

NCAA Field of 68 - January 10, 2012 Edition

• Syracuse still overall #1, followed by Kentucky, Baylor and North Carolina
• Last Four In: Memphis, Xavier, LSU, Florida State
• First Four Out:  Northern Iowa, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Arizona
• Monitoring:  Arkansas, St. Joseph's, Cincinnati, Colorado, Minnesota, Marshall, Central Florida, Mississippi

South Regional
(1)  North Carolina vs (16) Southern U./Coastal Carolina
(8)  Mississippi State vs (9) Southern Miss
(5)  Illinois vs (12) Iona
(4)  Seton Hall vs (13)  Ohio
(6)  Florida vs (11)  North Carolina State
(3)  Missouri vs (14)  Long Beach State
(7)  West Virginia vs (10)  BYU
(2)  Indiana vs (15)  Weber State

Midwest Regional
(1)  Kentucky vs (16)  Lamar
(8)  Purdue vs (9)  Wichita State
(5)  Louisville vs (12)  Texas
(4)  Virginia vs (13)  Cleveland State
(6)  Kansas State vs (11)  Stanford
(3)  Georgetown vs (14)  Davidson
(7)  San Diego State vs (10) St. Louis
(2)  Michigan State vs (15)  Oral Roberts

West Regional
(1)  Baylor vs (16)  Norfolk State
(8)  California vs (9)  Temple
(5)  Gonzaga vs (12)  Wisconsin
(4)  UNLV vs (13)  LSU/Florida State
(6)  Creighton vs (11)  Iowa State
(3)  Ohio State vs (14)  Belmont
(7)  Vanderbilt vs (10)  Murray State
(2)  Connecticut vs (15)  Nevada

East Regional
(1)  Syracuse vs (16)  Lehigh/Maine
(8)  Dayton vs (9)  New Mexico
(5)  Michigan vs (12)  Memphis/Xavier
(4)  Alabama vs (13)  George Mason
(6)  Marquette vs (11)  Harvard
(3)  Kansas vs (14)  Middle Tennessee
(7)  St. Mary's vs (10)  Northwestern
(2)  Duke vs (15)  Robert Morris

College Basketball Field of 68 - Daily Shuffle - January 8, 2012 (Midday)

Saturday provided some upsets and movements in the field.  Sunday opened my eyes to the team I am closest to.  I have moved Wisconsin down to the First Four games, as this team is going to struggle to make the field unless they find their stroke.  Xavier is my first team out.  Pittsburgh, Arizona, St, Joseph's, Arkansas, Minnesota and Oregon are some of the teams on the outside looking in.
Green - up, Red - down, Blue - new.

1 seeds - Syracuse, Kentucky, Baylor, North Carolina
2 seeds - Ohio State, Duke, Michigan State, Indiana
3 seeds - Missouri, Georgetown, Connecticut, Kansas
4 seeds - Alabama, UNLV, Louisville, Virginia
5 seeds - Kansas State, Michigan, Seton Hall, Gonzaga
6 seeds - Florida, Marquette, West Virginia, Creighton
7 seeds - St. Mary's, San Diego State, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State
8 seeds - Illinois, Purdue, California, Dayton
9 seeds - Wichita State, New Mexico, Temple, So. Mississippi
10 seeds - Northwestern, BYU, St. Louis, Murray State
11 seeds - Iowa State, Harvard, NC State, Stanford
12 seeds - Iona, Virginia Tech, Texas (Wisconsin, Memphis)
13 seeds - Cleveland State, VCU, Ohio, (Northern Iowa, LSU)
14 seeds - Middle Tennessee, Long Beach State, Belmont, Davidson
15 seeds - Nevada, Oral Roberts, Robert Morris, Weber State
16 seeds - Lamar, Norfolk State, (Lehigh, Maine, Southern U., Campbell)

Most Memorable Wildcard Games post-1980

Its Wildcard Weekend!! The weekend that used to give us 2 games, now gives us 4.  The weekend also used to produce teams with no shot of making the Super Bowl, but that trend has inexplicably changed in recent years.  Time to look back at some of the most memorable wildcard games of the past 30+ years.

10.  San Diego Chargers 31, Pittsburgh Steelers 28 (January 9, 1983)
Wow, the 1980's really didn't offer much for wildcard thrills.  Maybe they will make up for it in another round.  I picked this one for the list, with Dan Fouts throwing for 333 yards and 3 TD's, including 2 to Kellen Winslow to erase a 28-17 Steeler lead.

9.  Miami Dolphins 20, Seattle Seahawks 17 (January 9, 2000)
A hard-fought playoff game between the Dolphins and Seahawks is memorable for two reasons.  First it was the final playoff victory and final overall victory engineered by Dan Marino.  While his 196 yards and one TD were not flashy, he led the Dolphins to the go-ahead score in the fourth quarter as he had done many times before.  The game was also the last ever played at the Kingdome, which imploded not too long after.

8.  Pittsburgh Steelers 36, Cleveland Browns 33 (January 5, 2003)
In a game between two bitter long-time rivals, franchise footnotes Kelly Holcomb and Tommy Maddox staged a little wildcard shootout in 2003.  The Browns squandered a 24-7 lead, as Maddox threw 3 TD's to guide the Steelers back and wait for it......Chris Fuamatu Ma'afala powered in the game-winner from 3 yards out with 54 seconds left.

7.  Arizona Cardinals 51, Green Bay Packers 45, OT (January 10, 2010)
The highest-scoring playoff game in NFL history was played between the Cardinals and Packers.  Kurt Warner and Aaron Rodgers traded touchdown passes, with Warner out-doing Rodgers 5 to 4.  There was really no defense played until the first drive in overtime, when Rodgers was sacked by Michael Adams and Karlos Dansby picked up the resulting fumble and raced 17 yards for the winning TD.  Warner would end his career the following week against the Saints, while Rodgers had a better return trip the playoffs a year later.

6.  Minnesota Vikings 23, New York Giants 22 (December 27, 1997)
A stunning finish left Giant fans wondering what just happened.  The home-team Giants led the game 22-13 with a minute and a half to go and appeared headed to the next round when Randall Cunningham found Jake Reed to close the gap to 2.  The Vikings would get the ball back and Eddie Murray would complete the stunning comeback with a 24 yard FG at the gun.

5.  Green Bay Packers 28, Detroit Lions 24 (January 8, 1994)
At this time, I was a long-suffering Packers fan who had witnessed just 2 Packer playoff games in the 1982 strike season.  The return to the playoffs ended on a sweet note, as Brett Favre scrambled and found a streaking Sterling Sharpe for a 40-yard TD with 55 seconds left to win the game.  Favre would provide many more of these moments in the coming years, while Sharpe's career was cut way too short.

4.  San Francisco 49ers 30, Green Bay Packers 27 (January 3, 1999)
An exciting back and forth game brought the end to the Mike Holmgren era in Green Bay.  The Packers took the upper hand on a Brett Favre to Antonio Freeman touchdown pass in the closing minutes.  The 49ers marched right back, aided by a no fumble call on Jerry Rice that would have been overturned by replay under the current rules.  With 8 seconds left at the Packer 25, Steve Young found Terrell Owens over the middle for the game-winning TD as multiple Packers were late to converge on T.O.  There would be no Super Bowl for the 3rd year in a row in Green Bay and Favre would never take them back.

3.  San Francisco 49ers 39, New York Giants 38 (January 5, 2003)
This was another crazy game that added both the comeback element and the thrilling game-ending play.  The Giants built a 38-14 lead late in the 3rd quarter before a Jeff Garcia-led 49ers staged a huge comeback.  The rally culminated in a TD pass from Garcia to Tai Streets with a minute left.  The Giants marched right back down the field and set-up for the game-winning 41 yard field goal.  The field goal would never be attempted as the snap was botched and a strange pass play occurred that the referees potentially erred on.  While the Giants were called for ineligible receiver, the 49ers should have been flagged for pass interference, which would have resulted in offsetting penalties and another try for the FG.

2.  Tennessee Titans 22, Buffalo Bills 16 (January 8, 2000)
As jubilant as a Bills fan was after the game that tops this list, this game ended on the opposite side of the spectrum.  The game itself was fairly mundane, a defensive struggle starring Jevon Kearse and Bruce Smith.  It was the ending that makes this one of the greatest of all-time.  An ending that still evokes controversy.  The Bills took a 16-15 lead with 16 seconds left on Steve Christie's 3rd FG of the afternoon and appeared to be moving on.  The ensuing kickoff went to Lorenzo Neal who gave the ball to Frank Wychek.  Whychek started running sideways to his right, before wheeling and throwing across the field to Kevin Dyson.  Dyson had a convoy of blockers and took it the last 75 yards for the game-winning TD.  Truth-be-told, I still think the ball went a little bit forward.

1.  Buffalo Bills 41, Houston Oilers 38, OT (January 3, 1993)
Full disclosure, I loved the early 90's Bills teams.  I was riveted by this game.  The Bills were without Jim Kelly and lost Thurman Thomas to injury early in the game.  The Oilers returned an interception early in the 3rd quarter to take a 35-3 lead.  Why I kept watching, I have no idea.  Frank Reich proceeded to lead the Bills on the greatest comeback in NFL history.  He engineered 5 scoring drives, with 3 TD passes going to Andre Reed.  The Oilers actually had to tie the game with an Al Del Greco FG at the end of regulation before the Bills proceeded to intercept Warren Moon and set-up Steve Christie's game-winner in overtime.  The wildest of all wildcard games.

College Basketball Field of 68 - Daily Shuffle 1/6/12

This is the time of year that it appears no teams want the last few spots in the tournament until conference races start to sort out.  It is finally time to move up the likes of Murray State who is more deserving of any of the current teams at the end of the field.  Also, after last night, the PAC-12 is making more of a mess for itself.  I am dropping the PAC-12 to a 2-bid league as it was in 2009-2010.

Green - up, Red - down, Blue - new.

1 seeds - Syracuse, Kentucky, Baylor, North Carolina
2 seeds - Ohio State, Duke, Missouri, Michigan State
3 seeds - Georgetown, Connecticut, Indiana, Louisville
4 seeds - Alabama, UNLV, Kansas, Virginia
5 seeds - Marquette, Kansas State, Michigan, Florida
6 seeds - Gonzaga, Seton Hall, Mississippi State, Creighton
7 seeds - St. Mary's, San Diego State, Vanderbilt, Temple
8 seeds - West Virginia, Illinois, Purdue, California
9 seeds - Wisconsin, Wichita State, New Mexico, Virginia Tech
10 seeds - Northwestern, BYU, St. Louis, Dayton
11 seeds - Texas, Harvard, Murray State, So. Mississippi
12 seeds - Ohio, Iona, NC State, Stanford
13 seeds - Cleveland State, VCU, (Memphis, Northern Iowa, St. Joseph's, Iowa State)
14 seeds - Middle Tennessee, Long Beach State, Belmont, Davidson
15 seeds - Nevada, Oral Roberts, Robert Morris, Weber State
16 seeds - Lamar, Norfolk State, (Lehigh, Maine, Southern U., Campbell)

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College Basketball Field of 68 - Daily Shuffle

I will provide daily shuffles when time permits that do not involve matching up the field.  Green - up, Red - down, Blue - new.

1 seeds - Syracuse, Kentucky, Baylor, North Carolina
2 seeds - Ohio State, Duke, Missouri, Michigan State
3 seeds - Georgetown, Connecticut, Indiana, Louisville
4 seeds - Alabama, UNLV, Kansas, Virginia
5 seeds - Marquette, Kansas State, Michigan, Florida
6 seeds - Gonzaga, Seton Hall, Mississippi State, California
7 seeds - Creighton, St. Mary's, San Diego State, Purdue
8 seeds - West Virginia, Illinois, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin
9 seeds - Temple, Wichita State, New Mexico, Virginia Tech
10 seeds - Northwestern, BYU, St. Louis, Stanford
11 seeds - Texas, Arizona, Harvard, Dayton
12 seeds - So. Mississippi, Ohio, Pittsburgh, Memphis, NC State, Northern Iowa
13 seeds - Murray State, Iona, Cleveland State, VCU
14 seeds - Middle Tennessee, Long Beach State, Belmont, Nevada
15 seeds - Davidson, Oral Roberts, Robert Morris, Weber State
16 seeds - Lamar, Norfolk State, Lehigh, Maine, Southern U., Campbell

NCAA Field of 68 - January 4, 2012 Edition

• Syracuse still overall #1, followed by  Duke, Kentucky and Baylor
• I was late to the party on Seton Hall, but they are the big riser this week
• Xavier and Pittsburgh continue their free-fall, with Wisconsin starting to join them.  Florida State fell all the way out of the field.
• Northern Iowa's recent troubles have the Missouri Valley back to a 2-bid league
• Would the committee put Dayton in a First Four game at home?  They continue to play ping-pong with St. Joe's in my field, but the Flyers have better wins

South Regional
(1)  Duke vs (16) Norfolk State
(8)  West Virginia vs (9) Northwestern
(5)  Florida vs (12) Ohio
(4)  Kansas State vs (13)  Murray State
(6)  California vs (11)  Harvard
(3)  Connecticut vs (14)  Middle Tennessee
(7)  Creighton vs (10)  BYU
(2)  Michigan State vs (15)  Robert Morris

Midwest Regional
(1)  Kentucky vs (16)  Lamar
(8)  Illinois vs (9)  Temple
(5)  Kansas vs (12)  NC State/Dayton
(4)  Marquette vs (13)  Cleveland State
(6)  Gonzaga vs (11)  Arizona
(3)  Louisville vs (14)  Long Beach State
(7)  San Diego State vs (10) Virginia Tech
(2)  Ohio State vs (15)  Oral Roberts

West Regional
(1)  Baylor vs (16)  Lehigh/Maine
(8)  Vanderbilt vs (9)  St. Louis
(5)  Michigan vs (12)  Pittsburgh/Memphis
(4)  UNLV vs (13)  Virginia Commonwealth
(6)  Mississippi State vs (11)  Stanford
(3)  Georgetown vs (14)  Nevada
(7)  Purdue vs (10)  Wichita State
(2)  North Carolia vs (15)  Davidson

East Regional
(1)  Syracuse vs (16)  Campbell/Southern U.
(8)  Wisconsin vs (9)  Texas
(5)  Virginia vs (12)  Southern Mississippi
(4)  Alabama vs (13)  Iona
(6)  Seton Hall vs (11)  Xavier
(3)  Indiana vs (14)  Belmont
(7)  St. Mary's vs (10)  New Mexico
(2)  Missouri vs (15)  Weber State