Bracketology - March 14, 2024 Update

Oh Kansas.  The committee has no choice but to make them a 4 seed.  We have no idea what they will look like when they take the floor next Thursday or Friday but the team that played last night is not getting out of the first weekend, let alone the first round.  I am also bumping Texas and Oklahoma back a seed line and incorporating the change that Montana State causes at the bottom of the bracket.

Midwest (Detroit)

1) Purdue (Indianapolis)
2) Iowa State (Omaha)
3) Marquette (Indianapolis)
4) Auburn (Spokane)

5) Texas Tech (Spokane)

6) San Diego State (Indianapolis)

7) Clemson (Omaha)

8) Texas (Indianapolis)

9) Colorado State (Indianapolis)

10) FAU (Omaha)

11) Drake (Indianapolis)

12) Grand Canyon (Spokane)

13) Samford (Spokane)

14) Akron (Indianapolis)

15) South Dakota State (Omaha)

16) Norfolk State/Wagner (Indianapolis)

South (Dallas)
1) Houston (Memphis)
2) Creighton (Memphis)
3) Duke (Brooklyn)
4) Alabama (Spokane)

5) Nevada (Spokane)

6) St. Mary's (Brooklyn)

7) Florida (Memphis)

8) Dayton (Memphis)

9) Nebraska (Memphis)

10) Oklahoma (Memphis)

11) Colorado/Indiana State (Brooklyn)

12) Princeton (Spokane)

13) Vermont (Spokane)

14) Charleston (Brooklyn)

15) Morehead State (Memphis)

16) Longwood (Memphis)

East (Boston)
1) Connecticut (Brooklyn)
2) North Carolina (Charlotte)
3) Kentucky (Pittsburgh)
4) Kansas (Salt Lake City)

5) South Carolina (Salt Lake City)

6) Wisconsin (Pittsburgh)

7) Washington State (Charlotte)

8) Northwestern (Brooklyn)

9) TCU (Brooklyn)

10) Seton Hall (Charlotte)

11) Loyola (IL) (Pittsburgh)

12) James Madison (Salt Lake City)

13) UC-Irvine (Salt Lake City)

14) Oakland (Pittsburgh)

15) Colgate (Charlotte)

16) Quinnipiac (Brooklyn)

West (Los Angeles)
1) Tennessee (Charlotte)
2) Arizona (Salt Lake City)
3) Baylor (Omaha)
4) Illinois (Pittsburgh)

5) BYU (Pittsburgh)

6) Utah State (Omaha)

7) Gonzaga (Salt Lake City)

8) Boise State (Charlotte)

9) Michigan State (Charlotte)

10) Mississippi State (Salt Lake City)

11) Virginia/St. John's (Omaha)

12) South Florida (Pittsburgh)

13) McNeese State (Pittsburgh)

14) Sam Houston State (Omaha)

15) Stetson (Salt Lake City)

16) Montana State/Grambling State (Charlotte)

Bracketology - March 13, 2024

We are 4 days from Selection Sunday, so the field needs to take shape no matter if it wants to or not!  I will be very interested in what the committee chooses to emphasize, not jut with the bubble but with seeding.  Once again I will take my best shot at trying to predict what the committee will do.  There will be a little bit of movement yet, but not as much as public opinion thinks.  Here is my current look at the field:

1's - Purdue (overall #1), Houston, Connecticut, Tennessee

Purdue is locked and loaded as the overall #1 with their 8-1 record in Quad 1A (Q1A).  I still have Tennessee as the last #1 with slightly higher overall metrics than North Carolina and a 6-3 Q1A record to 4-2 for the Heels.

2's - North Carolina, Arizona, Iowa State, Creighton

Iowa State has been the 2nd most consistent team in the best conference and the win over Houston goes a long way.  I like Creighton's resume and the win over UConn better than Marquette's right now, but it could be decided on the court in a Big East Semifinal.

3's - Marquette, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky

My biggest trouble on the top 4 lines is which team out of Kansas, Kentucky and Baylor gets dropped to a 4.  Kansas is polarizing and really tests the "entire body of work" mantra.  They have wins over 3 teams listed on the 1-line above.  When healthy they have that potential.  They say McCullar and Dickinson will play in the NCAA's.  What level of health we will not know.  Again, the body of work says 3-seed.  I am giving the nod to Kentucky who is 5-2 in Q1A, including 3 wins away from home against the top 7 in NET vs Baylor who is just 4-7 in Q1A.

4's - Baylor, Illinois, Alabama, Auburn

I believe Illinois and Alabama are locked in here.  Pop quiz, what team's best road victory is #90 in the NET?  Yes, that's Auburn who is the darling of both result-based and predictive metrics.  I believe their resume speaks more like a 5 or 6, but no other team has jumped to take the spot away.  I would have BYU here, but I am predicting what the committee will do.

So where will the top 16 be placed?

  

Midwest (Detroit)
1) Purdue (Indianapolis)
2) Iowa State (Omaha)
3) Marquette (Indianapolis)
4) Auburn (Spokane)

South (Dallas)
1) Houston (Memphis)
2) Creighton (Memphis)
3) Duke (Brooklyn)
4) Alabama (Spokane)

East (Boston)
1) Connecticut (Brooklyn)
2) North Carolina (Charlotte)
3) Kentucky (Pittsburgh)
4) Baylor (Salt Lake City)

West (Los Angeles)
1) Tennessee (Charlotte)
2) Arizona (Salt Lake City)
3) Kansas (Omaha)
4) Illinois (Pittsburgh)

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5's - BYU, South Carolina, Texas Tech, Nevada

Is it just me or is this range more difficult than previous years?  Bracketologists seem down on Texas Tech.  The Red Raiders have 3 Q1A wins plus a Q1B over Kansas and Only 1 loss outside Quad 1.  Not flashy, but we are done with all the flash.  The Mountain West is baffling.  Nevada has 7 Quad 1 wins and an 8-3 road record, with only 6 losses overall.  Right now I lean their way.  Right now.

6's - Clemson, Utah State, St. Mary's, San Diego State

It doesn't get any easier to differentiate here.  San Diego State is the Mountain West version of Texas Tech.  Nothing flashy, but solid gets the nod.  

7's - Wisconsin, Florida, Texas, Gonzaga

Could also see Washington State here, but with the lowest NET and subpar ratings in other metrics, I am going with these four.

8's - Washington State, Dayton, Northwestern, Boise State

insert shrug emoji

Let's build some more

Midwest (Detroit)
1) Purdue (Indianapolis)
2) Iowa State (Omaha)
3) Marquette (Indianapolis)
4) Auburn (Spokane)

5) Texas Tech (Spokane)

6) Clemson (Indianapolis)

7) Wisconsin (Omaha)

8) Dayton (Indianapolis)

South (Dallas)
1) Houston (Memphis)
2) Creighton (Memphis)
3) Duke (Brooklyn)
4) Alabama (Spokane)

5) Nevada (Spokane)

6) St. Mary's (Brooklyn)

7) Florida (Memphis)

8) Washington State (Memphis)

East (Boston)
1) Connecticut (Brooklyn)
2) North Carolina (Charlotte)
3) Kentucky (Pittsburgh)
4) Baylor (Salt Lake City)

5) South Carolina (Salt Lake City)

6) San Diego State (Pittsburgh)

7) Texas (Charlotte)

8) Northwestern (Brooklyn)

West (Los Angeles)
1) Tennessee (Charlotte)
2) Arizona (Salt Lake City)
3) Kansas (Omaha)
4) Illinois (Pittsburgh)

5) BYU (Pittsburgh)

6) Utah State (Omaha)

7) Gonzaga (Salt Lake City)

8) Boise State (Charlotte)

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9's - Nebraska, Colorado State, TCU, Oklahoma

TCU and Oklahoma play in the Big 12 tourney.  Loser could be a 10 pending other results.

10's - FAU, Michigan State, Seton Hall, Mississippi State

11's - Virginia, St. John's, Colorado, Indiana State (first four), Drake, Richmond

IDK what to do with Indiana State.  They are better than Belmont from a few years back.  Eye test will have to be on their side.  These teams could really use Dayton to win the A10 tournament, FAU to win the American and no other bid stealers to emerge.

12's - South Florida, James Madison, Princeton, Grand Canyon

13's - McNeese State, Samford, UC-Irvine, Vermont

14's - Toledo, Charleston, Sam Houston State, Oakland

15's - Colgate, Morehead State, Montana, South Dakota State

16's - Stetson, Wagner, Norfolk State, Grambling State (first four), Quinnipiac, Longwood

Midwest (Detroit)
1) Purdue (Indianapolis)
2) Iowa State (Omaha)
3) Marquette (Indianapolis)
4) Auburn (Spokane)

5) Texas Tech (Spokane)

6) Clemson (Indianapolis)

7) Wisconsin (Omaha)

8) Dayton (Indianapolis)

9) Colorado State (Indianapolis)

10) Mississippi State (Omaha)

11) Drake (Indianapolis)

12) Grand Canyon (Spokane)

13) Samford (Spokane)

14) Toledo (Indianapolis)

15) South Dakota State (Omaha)

16) Norfolk State/Wagner (Indianapolis)

South (Dallas)
1) Houston (Memphis)
2) Creighton (Memphis)
3) Duke (Brooklyn)
4) Alabama (Spokane)

5) Nevada (Spokane)

6) St. Mary's (Brooklyn)

7) Florida (Memphis)

8) Washington State (Memphis)

9) Nebraska (Memphis)

10) FAU (Memphis)

11) Colorado/Indiana State (Brooklyn)

12) Princeton (Spokane)

13) Vermont (Spokane)

14) Charleston (Brooklyn)

15) Morehead State (Memphis)

16) Longwood (Memphis)

East (Boston)
1) Connecticut (Brooklyn)
2) North Carolina (Charlotte)
3) Kentucky (Pittsburgh)
4) Baylor (Salt Lake City)

5) South Carolina (Salt Lake City)

6) San Diego State (Pittsburgh)

7) Texas (Charlotte)

8) Northwestern (Brooklyn)

9) TCU (Brooklyn)

10) Seton Hall (Charlotte)

11) Richmond (Pittsburgh)

12) James Madison (Salt Lake City)

13) UC-Irvine (Salt Lake City)

14) Oakland (Pittsburgh)

15) Colgate (Charlotte)

16) Quinnipiac (Brooklyn)

West (Los Angeles)
1) Tennessee (Charlotte)
2) Arizona (Salt Lake City)
3) Kansas (Omaha)
4) Illinois (Pittsburgh)

5) BYU (Pittsburgh)

6) Utah State (Omaha)

7) Gonzaga (Salt Lake City)

8) Boise State (Charlotte)

9) Oklahoma (Charlotte)

10) Michigan State (Salt Lake City)

11) Virginia/St. John's (Omaha)

12) South Florida (Pittsburgh)

13) McNeese State (Pittsburgh)

14) Sam Houston State (Omaha)

15) Montana (Salt Lake City)

16) Stetson/Grambling State (Charlotte)

2023 NCAA Mens Field of 68 Prediction

More for nostalgia, but here is my bracket prediction for today:

1's - Kansas,  Alabama,  Houston,  Purdue

2's - Texas, UCLA, Arizona,  Marquette 

3's - Gonzaga, Baylor, Kansas State, Connecticut 

4's - Tennessee,  Virginia,  Xavier, Texas A&M

5's - Iowa State, Duke, San Diego State, Indiana

6's - TCU,  Kentucky,  St. Mary's,  Northwestern

7's - Miami FL, Creighton,  Michigan State, Missouri 

8's - Florida Atlantic,  Arkansas,  Maryland,  Memphis 

9's - Auburn, West Virginia,  Illinois,  Utah State

10's - Penn State, Iowa, USC, Boise State

11's - Mississippi State,  Providence,  Rutgers, Oklahoma State, Arizona State, Clemson

12's - VCU, Oral Roberts,  Drake, Kent State

13's - Charleston,  Iona, LA Lafayette,  Furman

14's - Princeton, UC Santa Barbara,  Grand Canyon, Kennesaw State

15's - Colgate, Montana State, Vermont,  UNC Asheville 

16's - Northern  Kentucky,  Texas A&M Corpus Christi,  Fairleigh Dickinson, SE Missouri State, Howard, Texas Southern

2022 Men's Basketball Bracketology -FINAL

Just flipped Purdue to a 2 and Villanova  to a 3.

We are in for a crazy tournament if you go by the conference tourneys.   Here is my seed list:

1's - Gonzaga,  Arizona, Kansas, Baylor

2's - Kentucky, Auburn, Tennessee, Purdue

3's - Duke, Villanova, Texas Tech, Wisconsin 

4's - UCLA,  Arkansas, Illinois, Providence

5's - Houston, Iowa, Connecticut,  Texas

6's - St. Mary's, LSU, Ohio State, Boise State

7's - Alabama,  Colorado State, Michigan State,  TCU

8's - USC, Murray State, Seton Hall, North Carolina, 

9's - Creighton, San Diego State, Loyola, Iowa State

10's - San Francisco, Memphis, Marquette, Miami FL

11's - Virginia Tech, Davidson, Indiana, Michigan, Texas A&M

12's - UAB, South Dakota State, Richmond, Wyoming, Rutgers

13's - Akron, Vermont, Chattanooga, New Mexico State

14's - Yale, Saint Peter's, Longwood, Montana  State

15's - Colgate, Georgia State, Cal State Fullerton,  Delaware 

16's -Jacksonville State, Norfolk State, Wright State, Bryant, Texas Southern, Texas A&M Corpus Christi

2021 Bracketology - Bracket

 1 Gonzaga

16 Appalachian State/Norfolk State

8 Oklahoma 

9 Rutgers

5 Florida State

12 UC Santa Barbara

4 Creighton

13 North Texas

6 Missouri

11 Drake/Louisville

3 Texas

14 Eastern Washington

7 Oregon

10 VCU

2 Ohio State 

15 Drexel

 1 Michigan

16 Oral Roberts

8 Georgia Tech 

9 Saint Bonaventure

5 Tennessee

12 Georgetown

4 West Virginia 

13 UNC Greensboro 

6 USC

11 Michigan State

3 Kansas

14 Liberty 

7 Wisconsin 

10 Clemson

2 Alabama

15 Cleveland State

 1 Baylor

16 Mount St. Mary's/Texas Southern

8 Loyola-Chicago

9 North Carolina 

5 Villanova

12 Oregon State

4 Purdue

13 Ohio 

6 Colorado

11 Ole Miss/Utah State

3 Arkansas

14 Abilene Christian

7 BYU

10 Virginia Tech

2 Iowa

15 Iona

 1 Illinois

16 Hartford

8 Connecticut 

9 San Diego State

5 Texas Tech

12 Winthrop

4 Virginia

13 Colgate

6 LSU

11 UCLA

3 Houston

14 Morehead State

7 Florida

10 Maryland

2 Oklahoma State 

15 Grand Canyon

2021 Final Bracketology Seed List

1's - Gonzaga, Baylor, Illinois, Michigan

2's - Alabama, Iowa, Ohio State, Oklahoma State 

3's - Houston,  Texas, Arkansas, Kansas

4's - West Virginia,  Purdue, Virginia,  Creighton

5's - Florida State, Villanova,  Tennessee, Texas Tech

6's - Colorado, USC, LSU, Missouri 

7's - Oregon, BYU, Florida, Wisconsin 

8's - Oklahoma, Connecticut,  Georgia Tech,  Loyola-Chicago

9's - San Diego State, St. Bonaventure, North Carolina, Rutgers

10's - Clemson, Virginia Tech, Maryland, VCU

11's - Michigan State, UCLA, Drake, Utah State, Louisville, Ole Miss

12's - Oregon State,  Georgetown,  Winthrop, UC Santa Barbara 

13's - North Texas, Colgate, Ohio,  UNC-Greensboro

14's - Liberty, Abilene Christian, Morehead State,  Eastern Washington 

15's - Grand Canyon,  Drexel, Iona, Cleveland State

16's - Oral Robert's, Hartford,  Mount St. Mary's,  Norfolk State, Texas Southern,  Appalachian State 

March 11 Bracketology

I finally had a chance to dive into the resumes and here is where I predict things stand as we launch into the major conference tournaments. 

1's - Kansas, Gonzaga, Dayton, Baylor

Dayton and Baylor aren't locked in, but outside of Florida State winning the ACC tournament or an early loss by either of them, the one line should look like this.

2's - San Diego State, Florida State, Villanova, Creighton

I am not sure both Big East schools end up here, but the number of quad 1 wins merits it.  Villanova has the win over Kansas, albeit at home, in its back pocket as well.  Duke also has a neutral court victory over Kansas and would be interesting if winning the ACC tourney gives them more quad 1 wins.

3's - Duke, Maryland, Oregon, Michigan State
4's - Kentucky, Seton Hall, Louisville, Auburn

The committee doesn't like putting teams with double digit losses in the top 4 lines without extraordinary wins that stand out.  Auburn is a safe choice.  I will be keeping an eye on this spot throughout the week.

5's - Wisconsin, Butler, Ohio State, West Virginia
6's - BYU, Virginia, Penn State, Iowa

Penn State and Iowa grabbing these with the most Quad 1 wins left on the board.

7's - Michigan, Colorado, Arizona, Houston
8's - Illinois, Providence, Marquette, LSU
9's - Florida, USC, St. Mary's, Rutgers
10's - Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Richmond, Arizona State
11's - Utah State, East Tennessee State, Stanford, Xavier, Wichita State
12's - Cincinnati, NC State, Yale, Liberty, Stephen F. Austin
13's - Akron, Vermont, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State
14's - Belmont, Bradley, Colgate, Northern Colorado
15's - Hofstra, UC-Irvine, Texas State, North Dakota State
16's - Northern Kentucky, Winthrop, Siena, Prairie View, Robert Morris, North Carolina Central