2015 NCAA Field of 68 - 1/20/15

NCAA Field of 68 – January 20, 2015

2015 NCAA TOURNAMENT BRACKET – JANUARY 20, 2015
MIDWEST REGION (CLEVELAND, OH)
1	Kentucky	vs	16	Grand Canyon/Colgate	Louisville, KY
8	Cincinnati	vs	9	Iowa
5	Butler	vs	12	Harvard	Jacksonville, FL
4	Notre Dame	vs	13	Iona
6	Georgetown	vs	11	Tennessee/Colorado State	Louisville, KY
3	North Carolina	vs	14	Murray State
7	Northern Iowa	vs	10	SMU	Omaha, NE
2	Kansas	vs	15	UL Monroe
EAST REGION (SYRACUSE, NY)
1	Virginia	vs	16	Texas Southern/North Florida	Charlotte, NC
8	LSU	vs	9	Oklahoma State
5	Seton Hall	vs	12	Tulsa	Jacksonville, FL
4	VCU	vs	13	Wofford
6	Baylor	vs	11	Miami FL	Pittsburgh, PA
3	Maryland	vs	14	Northeastern
7	Stanford	vs	10	George Washington	Pittsburgh, PA
2	Villanova	vs	15	Coastal Carolina
SOUTH REGION (HOUSTON, TX)
1	Wisconsin	vs	16	St. Francis (NY)	Columbus, OH
8	Old Dominion	vs	9	Dayton
5	West Virginia	vs	12	Syracuse/Washington	Columbus, OH
4	Wichita State	vs	13	Green Bay
6	Texas	vs	11	St. John’s	Portland, OR
3	Utah	vs	14	UC Davis
7	Indiana	vs	10	Xavier	Charlotte, NC
2	Duke	vs	15	North Carolina Central
WEST REGION (LOS ANGELES, CA)
1	Gonzaga	vs	16	Albany	Seattle, WA
8	San Diego State	vs	9	Georgia
5	Oklahoma	vs	12	Buffalo	Seattle, WA
4	Louisville	vs	13	Eastern Washington
6	Arkansas	vs	11	North Carolina State	Omaha, NE
3	Iowa State	vs	14	Stephen F Austin
7 2	Providence Arizona	vs vs	10 15	Michigan State North Dakota State	Portland, OR

The 1’s – Kentucky, Virginia, Gonzaga and Wisconsin

Kentucky and Virginia are no-brainers at this point.  Both of these teams have separated themselves enough that even one loss will not take them off the coveted 1-line.  The fact that we can say that about Kentucky is no surprise, but you have to give Tony Bennett a ton of kudos for what he has done at Virginia.  Gonzaga is here as long as they have one-loss.  Playing in the WCC means almost any loss is damaging.  I also think the committee will have in the back of their minds the last time Gonzaga earned the #1 two seasons ago.  Right now I have the final #1 as Wisconsin.  Despite a head-to-head loss to Duke, Wisconsin has two advantages that give them this slot.  First, they are currently tied atop the Big 10, while Duke is 2 games back in the ACC.  Second, one of the Badgers losses came without Frank Kaminsky, a factor that the committee will consider.  This really makes Wisconsin more like a 1.5 loss team at this point.

Kentucky – MIDWEST via Louisville

Virginia – EAST via Charlotte

Gonzaga – WEST via Seattle

Wisconsin – SOUTH via Columbus

The 2’s – Duke, Arizona, Villanova, Kansas

A quality group of 2 seeds, all still with very realistic aspirations for a top seed.  Duke righted the ship after consecutive losses, but needs to continue to be the defensive team that showed up against Louisville.  Villanova took a rough loss Monday, but still has the resume to be on solid footing here.  Arizona won round one with Utah to establish themselves as the PAC-12 leader.  Kansas edges out Maryland for the final #2 based on their SOS and 7 top 50 wins. 

 

Duke – SOUTH via Charlotte

Arizona – WEST via Portland

Villanova – EAST via Pittsburgh

Kansas - MIDWEST via Omaha

The 3’s – Maryland, Utah, Iowa State, North Carolina

Maryland and Utah are two of the more pleasant surprises in College Basketball.  I would not sleep on either of these teams come March, no matter what seed they end up at.  North Carolina has weathered a very tough schedule to 9 top-100 wins.  Iowa State is starting to pile up the quality wins and has the signature win over Kansas.  Ultimately, it is the number of quality wins and the conference strength that separate these teams from Wichita State and VCU at this point.

 

Maryland – EAST via Pittsburgh

Utah – SOUTH via Portland

Iowa State – WEST via Omaha

North Carolina – MIDWEST via Louisville

The 4’s – Wichita State, VCU, Notre Dame, Louisville

The Shockers and Rams have excellent resumes bolstered by non-conference SOS of #6 and #1, respectively.  Thus far they are both cruising through their conference schedules, which rank at #150 and #142, respectively, hurting the upward mobility of these teams.  Notre Dame has one of those resumes that make you scratch your head as a bracketologist.  They have two quality losses, wins at UNC plus home vs Michigan State and Miami FL.  On the converse, they have 6 sub-245 wins, putting an anchor on their RPI.  I have some theories on these RPI anchors, but that is for another day.  Louisville might have the best collection of losses (Kentucky, UNC, Duke) of any team in the country, but they don’t have the same collection of wins.  West Virginia also lacks that signature win, giving Louisville the last top 4 seed with better Sagarin and Kenpom than the Mountaineers.

Wichita State – SOUTH via Columbus

VCU – EAST via Jacksonville

Notre Dame – MIDWEST via Jacksonville

Louisville – WEST via Seattle

The 5’s – West Virginia, Seton Hall, Butler, Oklahoma

West Virginia has a very solid resume, but still needs to find more big wins in the Big 12.  Seton Hall’s resume isn’t sexy, but they have no bad losses and a signature win over Villanova.  Butler and Oklahoma are both 6 loss teams that have more quality wins than anyone else below them.  Right now that is my tie-breaker, but if some of the 6’s and 7’s add quality wins, these two could fall without losing.

West Virginia – SOUTH via Columbus

Seton Hall – EAST via Jacksonville

Butler – MIDWEST via Jacksonville

Oklahoma – WEST via Seattle

The 6’s – Georgetown, Texas, Arkansas, Baylor

The teams start to have more flaws as you get to this point.  Georgetown got the huge win they were missing over Villanova, while Baylor owns one over Iowa State.  Texas has no bad losses but could still use a boost to their quality wins.  Arkansas has dropped two in a row and must turn it around.

Georgetown – MIDWEST via Louisville

Texas – SOUTH via Portland

Arkansas – WEST via Omaha

Baylor – EAST via Pittsburgh

The 7’s – Indiana, Northern Iowa, Providence, Stanford

I like what Indiana is putting together, with wins over SMU, Butler and Ohio State and only a semi-bad loss to Eastern Washington.  Northern Iowa is going to suffer from a mediocre conference schedule.  NIU likely has to beat Wichita State at least once to retain a high seeding.  Providence has 4 really good win, an RPI of 22 and a loss to Brown (paired with losses to Boston College and Marquette).  Where they should fall is a good question.  Stanford has a similar head-scratching loss to DePaul, but has wins over Texas and Washington that help. 

Indiana – SOUTH via Charlotte

Northern Iowa – MIDWEST via Omaha

Providence – WEST via Portland

Stanford - EAST via Pittsburgh

The 8’s – Old Dominion, Cincinnati, San Diego State, LSU

Old Dominion has two really good wins over VCU and LSU.  If they can avoid really bad losses in a bad Conference USA, they should have an at-large resume that stands up even if they falter in the C-USA tourney.  Cincinnati has a group of quality wins and for once did not play an eyesore of a non-conference schedule.  The Aztecs have a really good win over Utah and a really bad loss against Fresno State.  LSU has beaten West Virginia and Georgia, but has a bad loss against Missouri.  These teams need avoid a second bad loss or the bubble will be a likely destination.

Old Dominion – SOUTH via Columbus

Cincinnati – MIDWEST via Louisville

San Diego State – WEST via Seattle

LSU – EAST via Charlotte

The 9’s – Dayton, Iowa, Oklahoma State, Georgia

Dayton is in the same boat as Northern Iowa, as the Atlantic 10 is not quite as strong as years past.  The Flyers also have to play Davidson, George Washington and VCU all only on the road.  Those games will likely determine their ultimate seeding.  The Hawkeyes don’t have any really bad losses and can hang their hats on a road win at North Carolina.  Oklahoma State and Georgia could both use more quality wins to support decent computer numbers, but are solidly in at this juncture.

Dayton – SOUTH via Columbus

Iowa – MIDWEST via Louisville

Oklahoma State – EAST via Charlotte

Georgia – WEST via Seattle

The 10’s – Michigan State, Xavier, SMU, George Washington

Just when it seemed Michigan State was back up to their Izzoan ways, Maryland made them look like a second level team once again.  They have very few chances for an eye-opening victory remaining, but plenty of chances for an eye-opening loss.  Stay tuned.  Xavier is a home-court hero that needs to do some roadwork soon.  The quality wins are there, just all at home.  SMU does not have the quality wins, but is sparked by quality losses and good computer numbers.  George Washington has a win over Wichita State leading their resume.

 

Michigan State – WEST via Portland

Xavier – SOUTH via Charlotte

SMU – MIDWEST via Omaha

George Washington – EAST via Pittsburgh

The 11’s – St. John’s, Miami FL, North Carolina State

Miami FL and NC State are here mainly due to wins over Duke.  That cannot be the last good win for either team or they are in trouble.  St. John’s now has a bad loss to DePaul to carry around.  The Big East has lots of possibilities to bolster their resume remaining, but they look bubblicious for now.

St. John’s – SOUTH via Portland

Miami FL – EAST via Pittsburgh

North Carolina State – WEST via Omaha

The 11’s/12’s - Tennessee, Colorado State, Syracuse, Washington

The Last 4 in are represented here.  Colorado State needs to avoid bad losses and could use a win over San Diego State before the year is through.  Tennessee has a couple of good wins and looks strongest of this bunch.  Syracuse’s best win is Iowa, a team that defeated Ohio State twice.  Therefore the Buckeyes are on the outside looking in right now despite what Kenpom and Sagarin say.  Washington, despite a 4-game losing streak, has a top 50 RPI and some quality wins.  Besides Ohio State, some others in the receiving consideration area in no particular order are St. Mary’s, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Temple, BYU, Illinois, Florida, UCLA and Kansas State.

Tennessee/Ohio State – MIDWEST via Louisville

Colorado State/Syracuse – SOUTH via Columbus

The 12’s – Tulsa, Harvard, Buffalo

Tulsa – EAST via Jacksonville

Harvard – MIDWEST via Jacksonville

Buffalo – WEST via Seattle

The 13’s – Wofford, Green Bay, Iona, Eastern Washington

Wofford – EAST via Jacksonville

Green Bay – SOUTH via Columbus

Iona -  MIDWEST via Jacksonville

Eastern Washington – WEST via Seattle

The 14’s – Northeastern, UC Davis, Stephen F Austin, Murray State

Northeastern – EAST via Pittsburgh

UC Davis – SOUTH via Portland

Stephen F Austin – WEST via Omaha

Murray State – MIDWEST via Louisville

The 15’s – North Carolina Central, Coastal Carolina, North Dakota State, UL Monroe

North Carolina Central – SOUTH via Charlotte

Coastal Carolina – EAST via Pittsburgh

North Dakota State – WEST via Portland

UL Monroe – MIDWEST via Omaha

The 16’s – St. Francis (NY), Albany, Texas Southern, Grand Canyon, North Florida, Colgate

St. Francis (NY) – SOUTH via Columbus

Albany – WEST via Seattle

Texas Southern/North Florida – EAST via Charlotte

Grand Canyon/Colgate – MIDWEST via Louisville