30 year Teams

30 years of college basketball means a lot of great players. So who are the best? Here is a team-by-team, conference-by-conference look at my all-30-year teams. I will keep adding to this post as I go. I will of course start with the Big Ten and my beloved Badgers. Each team will have five starters and one 6th man to keep it a challenge. (I am allowing a little positional flexibility.)

Wisconsin
G - Devin Harris, G - Michael Finley, F - Alando Tucker, F - Mike Wilkinson, C - Danny Jones, 6th Man - Kirk Penney

Michigan State
G - Mateen Cleeves, G - Shawn Respert, F- Steve Smith, F - Morris Peterson, C - Mike Peplowski, 6th Man - Scott Skiles

Illinois
G - Deron Williams, G - Kendall Gill, F - Nick Anderson, F - Kenny Battle, C - Ken Norman, 6th Man - Frank Williams

Michigan
G - Gary Grant, G - Louis Bullock, F - Glen Rice, F - Chris Webber, C - Roy Tarpley, 6th Man - Jalen Rose

Ohio State
G - Jay Burson, G - Jimmy Jackson, F - Evan Turner, F - Dennis Hopson, C - Greg Oden, 6th Man - Michael Redd

Indiana
G - Steve Alford, G - Calbert Cheaney, F - Jared Jeffries, F - Brian Evans, C - Alan Henderson, 6th Man - A.J. Guyton

Iowa
G - B.J. Armstrong, G - Roy Marble, F - Jess Settles, F - Ed Horton, C - Acie Earl, 6th Man - Les Jepsen

Minnesota
G - Bobby Jackson, G - Veshon Lenard, F - Willie Burton, F - Quincy Lewis, C - Randy Breuer, 6th Man - Sam Jacobsen

Purdue
G - Troy Lewis, G - Cuonzo Martin, F - Glen Robinson, F - Brad Miller, C - Steve Scheffler, 6th Man - Todd Mitchell

Northwestern
G - Geno Carlisle, G - Todd Leslie, F - Walker Lambiotte, F - Kevin Rankin, C- Evan Eschmeyer, 6th Man - Patrick Baldwin

Penn State
G - Dan Earl, G - Joe Crispin, F - Pete Lisicky, F - Calvin Booth, C - Jon Amechi, 6th Man - Matt Gaudio

BIG TEN
G - Gary Grant, G - Jimmy Jackson, F - Glen Rice, F - Glenn Robinson, C - Evan Eschmeyer, 6th Man - Steve Alford

Duke
G - Bobby Hurley, G - Johnny Dawkins, F - Grant Hill, F - Christian Laettner, C - Danny Ferry, 6th Man - J.J. Redick

North Carolina
G - Kenny Smith, G - Michael Jordan, F - Antwaan Jamison, F - Sam Perkins, C - Tyler Hansborough, 6th Man - George Lynch

Georgia Tech
G - Kenny Anderson, G - Mark Price, F - Dennis Scott, F - Matt Harpring, C - Tom Hammonds, 6th Man - Travis Best

North Carolina State
G - Chris Corchiani, G - Rodney Monroe, F - Julius Hodge, F - Tom Gugliotta, C - Todd Fuller, 6th Man - Thurl Bailey

Wake Forest
G - Tyrone Bogues, G - Randolph Childress, F - Josh Howard, F - Rodney Rogers, C - Tim Duncan, 6th Man - Chris Paul

Maryland
G - Steve Francis, G - Juan Dixon, F - Walt Williams, F - Len Bias, C - Joe Smith, 6th Man - Greivis Vasquez

Clemson
G - Terrell McIntyre, G - Greg Buckner, F - Horace Grant, F - Elden Campbell, C - Dale Davis, 6th Man - Sharone Wright

Virginia
G - John Crotty, G - Sean Singletary, F - Bryant Stith, F - Junio Burrough, C - Ralph Sampson, 6th Man - Richard Morgan

Florida State
G - Sam Cassell, G - Tony Douglas, F - George McCloud, F - Doug Edwards, C - Rodney Dobard, 6th Man - Bobby Sura

ACC (Old School)
G - Johnny Dawkins, G - Mark Price, F - Len Bias, F - Christian Laettner, C - Tim Duncan, 6th Man - Michael Jordan

Syracuse
G - Sherman Douglas, G - Lawrence Moten, F - Billy Owens, F - Derrick Coleman, C - Rony Seikaly, 6th Man - Carmelo Anthony

Connecticut
G - Chris Smith, G - Ray Allen, F - Richard Hamilton, F - Donyell Marshall, C - Emeka Okeafor, 6th Man - Ben Gordon

Georgetown
G - Allen Iverson, G - Eric "Sleepy" Floyd, F - Reggie Williams, F - Alonzo Mourning, C - Patrick Ewing, 6th Man - David Wingate

Villanova
G - Scottie Reynolds, G - Randy Foye, F - Kerry Kittles, F - Doug West, C - Ed Pinckney, 6th Man - Kenny Wilson

St. John's
G - Mark Jackson, G - Felipe Lopez, F - Chris Mullin, F - Malik Sealy, C - Walter Berry, 6th Man - Zendon Hamilton

Pittsburgh
G - Brandin Knight, G - Jason Matthews, F - Jerome Lane, F - Brian Shorter, C - Charles Smith, 6th Man - Sean Miller

Boston College
G - Dana Barros, G - Troy Bell, F - Danya Abrams, F - Craig Smith, C - Billy Curley, 6th Man - Michael Adams

Providence
G - Eric Murdock, G - Billy Donovan, F - Eric Williams, F - Ryan Gomes, C - Austin Croshere, 6th Man - God Shammgod

Seton Hall
G - Andre Barrett, G - Terry Dehere, F - Andre McCloud, F - Arturas Karnishovas, C - Mark Bryant, 6th Man - John Morton

Big East (Old School)
G - Sherman Douglas, G - Ray Allen, F - Chris Mullin, F - Derrick Coleman, C - Patrick Ewing, 6th Man - Kerry Kittles

Kentucky
G - Tony Delk, G - Rex Chapman, F - Jamal Mashburn, F - Kenny Walker, C - Tayshaun Prince, 6th Man - John Wall

Arkansas
G - Lee Mayberry, G - Scottie Thurman, F - Todd Day, F - Corliss Williamson, C - Oliver Miller, 6th Man - Corey Beck

Florida
G - Andrew Moten, G - Vernon Maxwell, F - Dwayne Davis, F - Udonis Haslem, C - Dwayne Schintzius, 6th Man - Joakim Noah

Tennessee
G - Tony White, G - Allan Houston, F - Dale Ellis, F - Vincent Yarborough, C - Dyron Nix, 6th Man - Chris Lofton

Vanderbilt
G - Frank Seckar, G - Billy McCaffrey, F - Dan Langhi, F - Shan Foster, C - Will Perdue, 6th Man - Drew Maddux

LSU
G - Chris Jackson, G - Ronnie Henderson, F - Ricky Blanton, F - Glen Davis, C - Shaquille O'Neal, 6th Man - Vernell Singelton

Alabama
G - James "Hollywood" Robinson, G - Eric Richardson, F - Robery Horry, F - Antonio McDyess, C - Derrick McKey, 6th Man - Michael Ansley

Auburn
G - Ronnie Battle, G - Wesley Person, F - Chuck Person, F - Chris Morris, C - Charles Barkley, 6th Man - Doc Robinson

Georgia
G - Litterial Green, G -Vern Fleming, F - Dominique Wilkins, F - Jumaine Jones, C - Alec Kessler, 6th Man - Shandon Anderson

Mississippi
G - Chris Warren, G - Keith Carter, F - Ansu Sesay, F - Gerald Glass, C - Joe Harvell, 6th Man - Rahim Lockhart

Mississippi State
G - Darryl Wilson, G - Jeff Malone, F - Lawrence Roberts, F - Jarvis Vernardo, C - Erick Dampier, 6th Man - Mario Austin

South Carolina
G - Devan Downey, G - B.J. McKie, F - Jimmy Foster, F - Terry Dozier, C - Darryl Martin, 6th Man - Melvin Watson

SEC
G - Chris Jackson, G - Allan Houston, F - Chuck Person, F - Jamal Mashburn, C - Shaquille O'Neal, 6th Man - Dominique Wilkins

Kansas
G - Jacque Vaughn, G - Kirk Hinrich, F - Paul Pierce, F - Danny Manning, C - Raef LaFrentz, 6th Man - Drew Gooden

Oklahoma
G - Mookie Blaylock, G - Tim McCallister, F - Blake Griffin, F - Wayman Tisdale, C - Stacey King, 6th Man - Ryan Minor

Missouri
G - Kareem Rush, G - Anthony Peeler, F - Derrick Chievous, F - Doug Smith, C - Steve Stipanovich, 6th Man - Melvin Booker

Oklahoma State
G - John Lucas III, G - Adrian Peterson, F - Desmond Mason, F - Byron Houston, C - Bryant Reeves, 6th Man - Joey Graham

Texas
G - T.J. Ford, G - Reggie Freeman, F - Damion James, F - Kevin Durant, C - Chris Mihm, 6th Man - D.J. Augustin

Iowa State
G - Jamaal Tinsley, G - Fred Hoiberg, F - Marcus Fizer, F - Jeff Grayer, C - Victor Alexander, 6th Man - Jeff Hornacek

Colorado
G - Chauncey Billups, G - Steve Wise, F - Donnie Boyce, F - Shaun Vandiver, C - David Harrison, 6th Man - Richard Roby

Kansas State
G - Steve Henson, G - Jacob Pullen, F - Mitch Richmond, F - Rolando Blackman, C - Michael Beasley, 6th Man - Denis Clemente

Baylor
G - Curtis Jerrells, G - Tweety Carter, F - LaceDarius Dunn, F - Brian Skinner, C - Daryl Middleton, 6th Man - David Wesley

Nebraska
G - Erick Strickland, G - Tyronne Lue, F - Eric Piatkowski, F - Venson Hamilton, C - Dave Hoppen, 6th Man - Jaron Boone

Texas A&M
G - Acie Law, G - Bernard King, F - Josh Carter, F - Antoine Wright, C - Joseph Jones, 6th Man - David Edwards

Texas Tech
G - Jarrius Jackson, G - Corey Carr, F - Andre Emmett, F - Jason Sasser, C - Tony Battie, 6th Man - Sean Gay

Big 12
G - Mookie Blaylock, G - Mitch Richmond, F - Danny Manning, F - Derrick Chievous, C - Wayman Tisdale, 6th Man - Jeff Grayer

Arizona
G - Damon Stoudamire, G - Jason Gardner, F - Sean Elliott, F - Michael Dickerson, C - Channing Frye, 6th Man - Khalid Reeves

UCLA
G - Pooh Richardson, G - Reggie Miller, F - Tracy Murray, F - Ed O'Bannon, C - Don MacLean, 6th Man - Tyus Edney

California
G - Jason Kidd, G - Ed Gray, F - Lamond Murray, F - Sean Lampley, C - Brian Hendrick, 6th Man - Shareef Abdur-Rahim

USC
G - Brandon Granville, G - Harold Miner, F - Ronnie Coleman, F - Brian Scalabrine, C - Sam Clancy, 6th Man - David Bluthenthal

Stanford
G - Brevin Knight, G - Casey Jacobsen, F - Todd Lichti, F - Adam Keefe, C - Tim Young, 6th Man - Dion Cross

Washington
G - Nate Robinson, G - Brandon Roy, F - Detlef Schrempf, F - Christian Welp, C - Todd Macullough, 6th Man - Jon Brockman

Arizona State
G - Jeremy Veal, G - Eddie House, F - James Harden, F - Ike Diogu, C - Mario Bennett, 6th Man - Stevin Smith

Oregon
G - Terrell Brandon, G - Luke Ridnour, F - Fred Jones, F - Luke Jackson, C - Blair Rasmussen, 6th Man - Anthony Taylor

Oregon State
G - Gary Payton, G - Brent Barry, F - A.C. Green, F - Jose Ortiz, C - Scott Haskin, 6th Man - Deaundra Turner

Washington State
G - Marcus Moore, G - Kyle Weaver, F - Isaac Fontaine, F - Brian Quinnett, C - Mark Hendrickson, 6th Man - Derrick Lowe

PAC-10
G - Gary Payton, G - Harold Miner, F - Reggie Miller, F - Sean Elliott, C - Adam Keefe, 6th Man - Don MacLean

30 Years of NCAA

As the 2010 NCAA Tournament comes to a close, I realized I have been watching and enjoying this tournament for 3 full decades now. I will admit that 1981 is not the clearest season, but it has been 30 years nonetheless. Championship Monday and of course a new rendition of "One Shining Moment" will bring this edition to an end...where will this seasons grand finale rank in the last 30? Here is my current rank of the last 29 championship games.

#29 - 1981 - Indiana 63, North Carolina 50 - Only because I remember it the least.
#28 - 1990 - UNLV 103, Duke 73 - The biggest blowout in the 29 years.
#27 - 2009 - North Caroilna 89, Michigan State 72 - The final score is much closer than the actual game.
#26 - 1998 - Kentucky 78, Utah 69 - The Utes kept it fairly close, but there was no doubt Kentucky would win this one.
#25 - 2001 - Duke 82, Arizona 72 - Nothing stands out here.
#24 - 1991 - Duke 72, Kansas 65 - Or here either.
#23 - 1992 - Duke 71, Michigan 51 - The Fab 5 didn't stand a chance.
#22 - 2006 - Florida 73, UCLA 57 - A tame end to a crazy tournament.
#21 - 2002 - Maryland 64, Indiana 52 - Juan Dixon and Lonnie Baxter completed the deal.
#20 - 2000 - Michigan State 89, Flordia 76 - It was all "Flint"stones.
#19 - 2004 - Connecticut 82, Georgia Tech 73 - Okeafor and Gordon would not be denied.
#18 - 1995 - UCLA 89, Arkansas 78 - Tyus Edney saved the 2nd round, then denied the Razorbacks a repeat.
#17 - 1996 - Kentucky 76, Syracuse 67 - The first of three straight appearances by Pitino's 'Cats.
#16 - 1984 - Georgetown 84, Houston 75 - Ewing gets his championship, Hakeem (Akeem at the time) gets revenge in the 1995 NBA Finals.
#15 - 2007 - Florida 84, Ohio State 75 - The Gators accomplish what most teams don't - a repeat when the players stay in college. Oden and Conley proceed to bolt Ohio State and struggle in the NBA.
#14 - 2005 - North Carolina 75, Illinois 70 - They must be getting good if this one lands at #14.
#13 - 1994 - Arkansas 76, Duke 72 - Scottie Thurman's clutch 3-pointer is the difference as "40 minutes of hell" gets it done.
#12 - 1999 - Connecticut 77, Duke 74 - Khalid El-Amin controls the game and denies this group of Dukies (Brand, Langdon, Maggette) a championship.
#11 - 1988 - Kansas 83, Oklahoma 79 - Danny and the Miracles upset my favorite team that year. Mookie Blaylock remains one of my all-time favorite collegians.

#10 - 2003 - Syracuse 81, Kansas 78 - Two freshman, Carmelo and Gerry McNamara get Boeheim a much-deserved championship and me an office pool victory.

#9 - 1986 - Louisville 72, Duke 69 - Duke was actually my favorite team in 1986. They would become my least favorite for a stretch of nearly 20 years shortly after Dawkins, Amaker and Bilas left the program. But on this night, it was "Never-Nervous" Pervis and Co. who got it done. It would be 17 years before another freshman led his team to the title (see #10).

#8 - 1983 - N.C. State 54, Houston 52 - I admit this one gets cheated a little on the list - but I was 9 and had to go to bed before the ending. I have now seen the ending a million times, but it is not the same. While the ending was good, the rest of this game lacked a lot of excitement.

#7 - 1989 - Michigan 80, Seton Hall 79 (OT) - People talk about Championship games sometimes being a letdown. That definitely can be the case. But this game coming in at #7 shows how good these games have been. Rumeal Robinson hit the free throws, but it was Glen Rice who put together one of the greatest personal tournaments ever.

#6 - 1997 - Arizona 84, Kentucky 79 (OT) - "Simon says Championship" remains my favorite all-time Billy Packer call. Arizona defeated their third consecutive one seed and denied Kentucky what would have ended up being a 3-peat.

#5 - 1993 - North Carolina 77, Michigan 71 - I admit, I was a huge Fab 5 guy and Chris Webber was my favorite. We were all yelling "NOOOOOOO" to Chris as he crossed half court down by 2 points. Do you ever wonder if a higher power decided - Well Chris, you just traveled and they missed it, so it would only be right of you to call a timeout that you do not have.

#4 - 2008 - Kansas 75, Memphis 68 (OT) - Memphis had this game won. To foul or not to foul. Actually, they were trying to but Kansas got away and Chalmers made them pay. Yes, just like the previous game on this list, it would have been vacated later on if the losing team had won, but that never takes away from the greatness of a game at the time. The Kansas victory also meant my 2 year old son would take 2nd in the office pool picking strictly on mascot names.

#3 - 1987 - Indiana 74, Syracuse 73 - How good were the championship games in the 80's? Keith Smart's baseline jumper denies Sherman Douglas, Derrick Coleman and Ronnie Seikaly a title. For the 2nd of what would end up 3 years in a row, my favorite team would lose the championship. Not that it would have mattered, but would someone on Syracuse call a time-out already after the basket. Maybe they needed Chris Webber.

#2 - 1985 - Villanova 66, Georgetown 64 - Easily could be #1 - The tournament is about upsets, and this is the greatest of them all. The first year of 64 teams produced a #8 seed winning the title. Some call it the perfect game. I just know I had to sneak the little black and white TV on in my room so I could watch it when I was supposed to be in bed. And I was rooting hard for Villanova.

#1 - 1982 - North Carolina 63, Georgetown 62 - Ok, so this is the first Championship game I actually remember. And I watched a lanky freshman hit the winning jumper from the baseline from a hospital bed as severely dehydrated 8 year old. I guess I had gotten plenty of rest during the day, because I was allowed to watch this one. My favorite part is still when James Worthy overplays a passing lane, and then Freddie Brown thinks he is a teammate and throws him the ball. The #2 Oops of the tournament behind my man C-Webb.

There it is. Where will 2010 fall? We will know Monday.

Zero for Two

Told people to go to Vegas...

The Sweet 16

First of all - I offer my apologies to anyone who suffered monetary damages as a result of reading Jabesblog last week. I will get to Mr. Ken Pomeroy in a moment. I will also be making my picks for the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 games. I was so very proud to post the worst bracket I have ever completed on this site last week, that I thought I would give you more predictions. You may want to run to Vegas with the opposite of my picks.

Before my picks, a few things about last weeks blog regarding Ken Pomeroy's efficiency ratings. The first thing I learned, is that all my research was done on efficiency ratings after the previous tournaments had ended and those ratings included tournament games. Since these ratings are fluid, it was not necessarily comparing apples to apples. For example, Texas A&M finished with a higher efficiency rating than Utah State, even though the tournament started the opposite way, because Texas A&M beat Utah State. The same for Washington and Marquette. So the analysis had some faults. OBVIOUSLY.

Despite those faults, let's look at a few of last week's points.

#1 - the Final Four could still very well come from teams ranked in the top 10 in overall efficiency and/or top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The only change is that Baylor has joined the group at #9 overall. So now the Final Four appears to be down to Ohio State, Syracuse/Kansas State, Kentucky/West Virginia, and Duke/Baylor.

#2 - does not occur until the Final Four games, so this could very well happen

#3 - Kentucky is up to #3, but might have a hard time getting to #1 and #4 in offensive efficiency. So Duke would be the national champion.

#4 - this applies to the elite 8 games, so we will see what happens.

#5 - there is no explanation for Kansas being eliminated by Northern Iowa. Therefore this point is no longer valid. Coincidentally, Wisconsin both fell out of the top 6 and Cornell now has a higher offensive efficiency rating. Go figure!!

#6 - ok - because I tallied prior stats post tournament, this one is hard to judge. Just using pre-tournament ratings, picking the higher efficiency team would have yielded you 24 winners and would have only eliminated two teams that made the Sweet 16 in round 1 (Cornell and Washington). Using updated efficiency after round 2, 27 of the 32 teams that won first round games now have higher efficiency ratings. 2 of the 5 who lost are now over-seeded by 4. 29 out of 32, 90.6%. I would have taken the 24, or 25 because Clemson never wins.

#7 - 6 teams over-seeded by 7 - 5 did not make the second weekend. This one seems like a good predictor. Since we now know this is fluid, the teams closer to 7 can play there way off this over-seeding stat. Tennessee won there second round game over an over-seeded Ohio, so they did not ruin this stat yet. They are still over-seeded by 7, but if they beat Ohio State, they will likely finish over-seeded by less than 7, thus removing them from this statistic. Marquette was actually added to this statistic, now over-seeded by 8.

#8 - Utah State is still under-seeded by 18, but might not finish the tourney over 17. They were beat by a higher seeded team who is currently under-seeded by 1. Minnesota is now under-seeded by only 11, but Missouri is by 18 and won their first round game. Washington is now under-seeded by 18.

#9 - Under-Seeded 11's went 2-1 (San Diego State is now properly seeded). Under-seeded 12's went 1-2, Cornell now unded-seeded by 1. Under-seeded 10's went 2-0 and St. Mary's is sitting one spot away from making this 3-0.

#10 - The higher seeded 8/9 or 7/10 team was 6-2 after the Missouri/Clemson flip-flop in ratings. The two missed were a lower-seeded 8 over a 9 (Gonzaga) and a lower-seeded 9 over an 8 (Wake Forest).

So the biggest error in analysis thus far, has been the use of oranges to predict apples. This tournament has been crazy anyway, so it might fall as a 2000-like outlier in the history of tournaments.

So here are the picks:

These have been complicated by 2 key PG injuries, and we all know how important guard play is in this tournament. But, I can no longer pick against Tom Izzo in a tournament (yet), so

Michigan State over Northern Iowa
Ohio State over Tennessee
Syracuse over Butler
Kansas State over Xavier
Kentucky over Cornell
Washington over West Virginia
Duke over Purdue
St. Mary's over Baylor

Ohio State, Syracuse, Kentucky and Duke gather at Lucas Oil Stadium a week from Saturday.

My NCAA Picks

Here are my official picks. It is hard to put a bracket on here, so I will do it in list format.

Midwest First Round Winners
1 Kansas
8 UNLV
4 Maryland
5 Michigan State
11 San Diego State
3 Georgetown
7 Oklahoma State
2 Ohio State

West First Round Winners
1 Syracuse
9 Florida State
4 Vanderbilt
12 UTEP
6 Xavier
3 Pittsburgh
7 Brigham Young
2 Kansas State

East First Round Winners
1 Kentucky
8 Texas
4 Wisconsin
5 Temple
6 Marquette
3 New Mexico
10 Missouri
2 West Virginia

South First Round Winners
1 Duke
9 Louisville
13 Siena
12 Utah State
11 Old Dominion
3 Baylor
10 Saint Mary's
2 Villanova

Sweet Sixteen
1 Kansas
5 Michigan State
3 Georgetown
2 Ohio State
1 Syracuse
12 UTEP
6 Xavier
7 Brigham Young
1 Kentucky
4 Wisconsin
6 Marquette
2 West Virginia
1 Duke
12 Utah State
3 Baylor
10 Saint Mary's

Elite Eight
1 Kansas
2 Ohio State
1 Syracuse
7 Brigham Young
4 Wisconsin
2 West Virginia
1 Duke
3 Baylor

Final Four
1 Kansas
1 Syracuse
4 Wisconsin
1 Duke

Kansas over Duke 77-72

NCAA Bracket Blog

OK - So my first foray into bracketology was only moderately successful - but I had a lot of fun and learned a few things too. I will not even go into how the committee contradicts itself and will not answer any questions directly on any of the selection shows. That is par for the course. Instead, in case any of you were looking for some in-depth analysis on who to and and who not to pick - here goes. (Note: I have not won an office pool since 1994 when UConn beat Duke. Also, in all of the scenarios I am giving below, there are a few outliers, so nothing is fool proof).

I am going to focus my bracket analysis on Ken Pomeroy's efficiency ratings, which have become a fairly accurate predictor of the tournament results. His data goes back to 2004, so I had 6 years to look at. The first stat is the one to pay the most attention to. Ready??

Number 1
22 out of the 24 Final Four Teams was ranked in the overall Top 10 in efficiency. The two outliers were Villanova in 2009 and George Mason in 2006. 21 out of 24 were ranked in the Top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The three outliers were UCLA, LSU, and George Mason, all in 2006, so Villanova last year met this qualification. Therefore, other than George Mason in 2006, 23 of the 24 teams was either Top 10 in overall efficiency or Top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. And George Mason had to beat a UConn team in OT that would have made this 24 for 24.

So - for 2010 - Your top 10 in overall efficiency are 1) Duke, 2) Kansas, 3) Wisconsin, 4) Ohio State, 5)Syracuse, 6)Kentucky, 7) BYU, 8)West Virginia, 9) Kansas State, and 10)Maryland. The first 9 teams also ranked in the Top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. No other teams qualified this year in this category. This would indicate to me to pick your final four from this group. In case you didn't pick up on it, that moves Duke straight to the final four line.

Number 2
Out of the twelve Final Four games, 11 were won by the team with the higher overall efficiency. The outlier was Michigan State over Connecticut in 2009.

Number 3
The champion in each of the last 6 years was the 1 or 2 team in overall efficiency and ranked no lower than 4th in offensive efficiency. Duke and Kansas both meet this criteria. Also, 5 of the 6 years, the championship game was won by the team ranked higher in overall efficiency. UConn over Duke in 2004 (2 over 1) was the exception.

Number 4
18 out of 24 Elite 8 games were won by teams with the higher overall efficiency, and 4 of the 6 that were not were won by a team who met the 25/25 criteria. The two outliers were of course George Mason over UConn in 2006 and LSU over Texas in 2006 (LSU did have a higher defensive efficiency than Texas and was #10 overall. So what does this say - at least three of the four elite eight games will be won by the team with the higher efficiency number (3 times it has been all 4, three times it has been 2 of 4 for what that is worth.

Number 5
Except for #10 overall LSU beating #5 Duke in the Sweet Sixteen in 2006 and #4 Pitt beating #5 Wisconsin in the 2nd Round in 2005, the only time teams in the top 6 in overall efficiency did not make the Elite 8, they were defeated by a team with a better offensive efficiency (Pitt and LSU were top 10 teams with a better defensive efficiency). So, in the top 6, Duke is #1 in offensive efficiency, Kansas is #2, Wisconsin is #13, Ohio State is #7, Syracuse is #9 and Kentucky is #18. Duke, Kansas, Ohio State, Syracuse and Wisconsin can not play a team with a higher offensive efficiency before the elite 8. Kentucky at #18 would play Wisconsin at #13 with Wisconsin beating Kentucky via this stat. So let's consider the exception with defensive efficiency - Wisconsin is #7 and Kentucky is #10. Therefore Kentucky does not win the exception either. (As a Bleeding Red Badger fan, I know this will jinx Wisconsin, but it is reason for optimism). None of the other top 6 can play a top 10 team superior in defensive efficiency before the Elite 8 either.

Number 6
OK- How about some first round stats - these have more exceptions than what I gave you above - Are you liking this? Anyway, Number 6...

158 out of 192 First Round games were won by the team with the higher overall efficiency (82.3%) or 26.3 games a year. In 15 of the 34 games won by the lower efficiency team, the higher efficiency team was over-seeded by at least 4 (Over-Seeded - Efficiency rating - (Seed*4)). So now we are up to 173 out of 192 games, or 90.1% of First Round games are won by the team with the higher efficiency or lost by a team over-seeded by at least 4. Please note here, there have been many first round games won by an over-seeded team (see more on this below), but if you are picking against a higher efficiency team, it would be wise if they were over-seeded.

Number 7
More on over-seeded teams (Efficiency rating - (Seed*4)). There have been 33 teams over-seeded by at least 7 on the 1 thru 6 lines. 22 of those 33 won first round games, 18 of those over fellow over-seeded teams. But only 8 won second round games and all 8 beat over-seeded teams in the second round. None won a Sweet 16 game. So who is over-seeded by 7 on the 1 thru 6 lines? New Mexico is over-seeded by 25, Vanderbilt by 20, Pittsburgh by 18, Notre Dame by 14, Tennessee by 11 and Villanova by 7. New Mexico has a ceiling of Sweet 16 if they play Montana/Marquette, but if Washington beats Marquette, Washington is under-seeded. Vanderbilt would be Sweet 16 if they play Murray State/Butler, but would lose to under-seeded UTEP. Pittsburgh will not play an over-seeded team in the 2nd round in either circumstance. No 2nd weekend for them. If Notre Dame beats ODU (more on this later), they would face a properly seeded Baylor squad. Same for Tennessee against Georgetown. Villanova would get an under-seeded Richmond or St. Mary's before bowing out. This does not mean New Mexico would automatically beat Marquette, Vandy beat Butler, or Villanova their 2nd round opponent. Teams over seeded by 7 have lost to a handful of fellow over-seeded teams. This item only provides a maximum of the Sweet 16 for 3 of these teams and 2nd round for the other 3.

Number 8
6 out of the 7 teams under-seeded by at least 17 won their first round game, 4 out of 7 won 2 games. Utah State is under-seeded by 25 this year. 8 out of 10 teams under-seeded by at least 15 won first round games, 5 out of 10 won 2 games (and one of the two who lost was beaten by a higher seeded team who was also under-seeded). Missouri and Minnesota are both under-seeded by 16, but Missouri plays Clemson who is a higher ranked under-seeded team and Minnesota plays Xavier who is a higher ranked properly-seeded team. Proceed with caution. (Ok - Missouri plays Clemson and Oliver Purnell is 0-6 in Tourney games, so either play the streak or law of averages).

Number 9
Under-seeded 11's are 2-0 (see Old Dominion and San Diego State this year). Under-seeded 12's are just 4-4, but have won 3 in a row (hello UTEP and Utah State this year). Under-seeded 10's are also just 4-4 (Georgia Tech and Missouri).

Number 10
The team with the higher efficiency has won 35 out of 48 8/9 and 7/10 games. So there will likely be two instances of the higher efficiency team winning this year. Missouri over Clemson would seem to be 1. Wake over Texas? Louisville over Cal? Richmond over St. Mary's? Oklahoma State over Georgia Tech? Makes these games hard as always. 7 seeds rated 42 or lower are actually 4-2, with the losses coming to #'s20 and 26, but with a win over a 17. ???

I will post my bracket either tomorrow or Thursday morning. Happy bracketing!!

Jabe's Bracket - Final

Updated 4:15 - Illinois replaces Minnesota and a few minor seed changes. Now final.

Here is the final bracket before the real one is revealed. Mississippi State gets in on the eye test over Virginia Tech and Minnesota over Illinois based on the timing of the championship game. I still believe Duke will get the final #1 slot, but West Virginia will join them in that region. I took Villanova over Georgetown for the final #2 slot because the 8th place team in a league should not get a #2 seed. Temple beats Pitt out for the final #3, as a strong resume with both a regular season and tournament championship looks better than a team with neither. I am not sure Wisconsin is a #4 seed, but if nothing else, flip-flop them with Texas A&M. Anyway, here it is - and let the real predictions start this evening....

Jabe's Bracket - Next-to-Last One

Final version tomorrow - things are taking shape pretty well...

Jabe's NCAA Field of 65 - March 12, 2010

Wow - what a Thursday!! I hope the committee did not have seeds set in stone yet. I will take the update in segments today.

The Bubble Watch Segment

The "Bubble" actually seems to be getting clearer, unless we run out of teams. UAB, Memphis, and Arizona State played their way off the Bubble and into the NIT yesterday. San Diego State just barely stayed alive, but may now be on lock status, unless the Bubble shrinks, which I will talk about in a moment. Washington moved within one win of lock status, if not there already. The two spots still currently up for grabs are the ones labeled "Mississippi" and "Rhode Island" on my bracket. Both of those teams will be in action today trying to grab those spots. Also still alive are Illinois, Dayton, St. Louis, and Seton Hall.

There is one big development that might take one spot away from those teams. Conference USA is currently a one bid league. UTEP must win the C-USA tourney for it to stay this way. And what does UTEP have today - a game against the host team - Tulsa.

The other tourney that bears watching is the WAC, where Utah State would make a pretty good case for at-large status. This tournament is in Reno where Nevada lurks as a potential opponent in the finals. Nevada lost only one home game - to Utah State. And first Utah State would have to beat a Lousiana Tech team that beat them by 22 earlier this year.

The Seeding Segment

If anything got jumbled yesterday, it was the seeding. The committee is supposed to consider the entire body of work. In that case, Syracuse is still a #1 seed. Now, if Duke wins the ACC tourney, Syracuse might move out West and Duke to the South. Villanova's loss appears to move them to a #3. I struggled with Pitt, who lost to the hottest thing going yesterday. For now, I am giving Temple the final #3 seed, but they need to win the A-10 tourney to keep it. Georgetown earned a #4 yesterday and it will be tough to move them, although Vandy or Tennessee could change that with an SEC championship. Notre Dame and Marquette are moving their way up the board, while Clemson and Wake Forest are on the way down. And then there is Texas. I think they have to be a 7 now.

Hopefully Friday throws more clarity into things....

Jabe's NCAA Field of 65 - March 11, 2010

Things will get a little more interesting today. With no bids being stolen from Mid-Majors, the final spots are there for the taking for UAB/Memphis, Washington/Arizona State, Dayton/Rhode Island. Mississippi and Illinois need at least one win to enhance their consideration. Georgia Tech is living dangerous as well. Also, with quarterfinals in the Big East and Big 12 and opening round games in the ACC today, seeding shuffles will continue. Missouri and Louisville were the big losers yesterday.

Jabe's NCAA Field of 65 - March 10, 2010

Again today, not much movement in the bracket. I did a re-shuffle after looking at Tennessee vs Texas A&M a little closer and swapped them on the #4 and #5 lines for now. In turn that shifted a few regions for other teams.

South Florida and Seton Hall look to take a spot today. I have no idea what I will do with Notre Dame if they lose to Seton Hall yet.

Jabe's NCAA Field of 65 - March 9, 2010

Not much change from yesterday - basically just the fall-out of St. Mary's blowout win over Gonzaga. Gonzaga falls to an 8, while St. Mary's jumps to a 9. Texas regains a 6 seed and Florida State slides onto the 7 line. Utah State moves back to an 11 for the time being, as they continue to fluctuate +/- 1 from a 10 seed.

The other change was to switch Kentucky to New Orleans and Purdue to Milwaukee. Just seems to make more sense. Also a side note on Purdue - if the tourney started today they would be a #2 seed, but my eye test and predicted loss by at least the Big Ten semis has me slotting them as a #3.

A couple more championship games tonight, plus South Florida and Seton Hall try to earn their way into the discussion.

Team A vs Team B

Team A and B are outlined below. It is definitely not clear-cut, but I just don't see how you don't give a slight edge to Team A. Yet in almost every bracket, Team B is seeded higher.

What the above numbers also don't show is that Team A was without a key player for 9 games and went 6-3 and beat Team B while that key player was out. Team B also did not have to play a road game against the co-conference champion in the unbalanced schedule.

Team A - Wisconsin

Team B - Michigan State

Jabe's NCAA Field of 65 - March 7, 2010

A lot of action on the board this weekend and it will be even crazier as more conference tournaments get underway. Current last four in: UAB (not Memphis yet), Washington (not Arizona State), San Diego State, and Mississippi. Hopefully a few teams will grab these last few spots or we will still get a bubble shrinker to clear things up. I feel like I pulled Mississippi out of a hat.

The seeding seems to get clear, and then Vanderbilt and K-State lose games they never should have. I still have K-State as a #2 based on previous work, but Vandy got knocked two spots back to 5. Biggest movers are Texas A&M up to a 4 and Notre Dame checking in at a 10.

More Jabe's brackets to come...

Jabe's NCAA Field of 65 - March 3, 2010

Updated field after Wednesday night games.

Last Five In:
St. Mary's
Georgia Tech
Connecticut
Dayton
Notre Dame

First Out:
Illinois

Others:
San Diego State

Biggest Upward Movers:
Baylor
Maryland

2010 Bubble Shrinkers

With Conference Tournaments starting today, bubble teams now have two things to worry about. First and foremost, they need to worry about their own performance. Illinois, Dayton and Florida have tough weeks, although each has one game at home that could lift them into the tournament. Teams like Virginia Tech and Rhode Island need to turn things around fast. But the second thing these teams need to worry about are the "Bubble Shrinkers" - teams currently out of the NCAA field that would add a team to the automatic plus locks and leave one fewer bid available for these marginal at-large teams. Here is a look at the potential "Bubble Shrinkers":

Horizon League - Butler is a lock for the field and has a bye to the semi-finals and will host every game they play. If Butler should lose to say a Wright State or Wisconsin-Milwaukee, the Horizon becomes a two bid league. Likelihood of this scenario is not high.

Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa has locked up an at-large berth going into what is one of the most underrated conference tournaments each year. With the rest of the teams, Wichita State, Illinois State, Creighton, etc. needing to win the tournament to make the NCAA's, the stakes are high. The regular season champ rarely wins this tourney, and my gut says that doesn't change this year as Illinois State or Wichita State will shrink the bubble by 1.

WAC - Same drill as above for WAC champ Utah State. I think they have done enough to earn at-large consideration, but they are no certain lock as Butler and Northern Iowa should they slip up. New Mexico State and Louisiana Tech provide the main competition.

PAC-10 - Say what?? Yes, Cal is the only PAC-10 team with an at-large resume worth considering, and they have the craziest one going 0-4 against RPI top 50, but playing only one team outside the top 200. If Cal loses the PAC-10 tourney, which is fairly likely, the PAC-10 might get their second bid and make another team sweat it out Sunday.

Atlantic 10 - A few weeks ago, the A-10 was headed to 6 bids. Now the locks are down to 3, with Rhode Island and Dayton squarely on the bubble. If either of these two, or Charlotte or St. Louis wins the A-10 tourney, the league will lock-up either 4 or 5 bids.

Conference USA - UTEP and UAB appear to have done enough if they close the regular season without a major hiccup, although they play each other one last time. Memphis, Marshall, or Tulsa could make the committee consider this a 3 bid league if it wins the C-USA tourney.

BCS Leagues - There is always the chance that a team makes the improbable run in one of the other five BCS conferences and shrinks the bubble. Georgia did this a few years ago in the SEC. Who could do it this year? North Carolina? Minnesota? Mississippi? Arkansas? Notre Dame? Cincinnati? Seton Hall? I don't see it happening, but nothing is impossible.

The Long-Shots - I don't believe Siena and Old Dominion have done enough to lock-up an at-large bid. The committee might disagree, and therefore these could become two bid leagues. Finally, if Portland or Loyola Marymount wins the West Coast tourney, I think St. Mary's will be NIT bound and this will not effect the bubble.

Prediction: Right now, my 65 team field has been predicated on zero "Bubble Shrinkers". I think there will be at least two, maybe a third, making my last two or three in yesterday, as the first two or three out.

Jabe's NCAA Field of 65 - March 1, 2010

Last Six In:

St. Mary's
Illinois
Connecticut
Dayton (I know close losses are a tough measure, but look at Dayton's close losses against the top 25)
San Diego State (Case gets stronger by others getting weaker)
Virginia Tech (Should not be in, but who?)

First One Out:

Rhode Island?? (Would someone play there way in please!!)

Others under consideration:

Notre Dame
Arizona State
Charlotte
Mississippi
Mississippi State
Wichita State
Minnesota