Field of 68 - Seed List - February 6, 2013

As we have hit February, I will attempt to provide frequent updates to my seed list on days where I m unable to "bracket it up".  After Tuesday night's action, here is where my seeds stand.

1 - Duke, Kansas, Michigan, Indiana
2 - Arizona, Miami, FL, Florida, Syracuse
3 - Gonzaga, New Mexico, Louisville, Michigan State
4 - Butler, Cincinnati, Minnesota, Ohio State
5 - Kansas State, Georgetown, Marquette, Oregon
6 - Oklahoma State, Creighton, NC State, Pittsburgh
7 - UNLV, Missouri, Wisconsin, Notre Dame
8 - UCLA, Colorado State, San Diego State, Iowa State
9 - North Carolina, VCU, Wichita State, Ole Miss
10 - St. Louis, Kentucky, LaSalle, Oklahoma
11 - Baylor, Illinois, Colorado, BYU/Indiana State
12 - Temple/St. John's, Belmont, Middle Tennessee, Memphis
13 - Louisiana Tech, Akron, Bucknell, North Dakota State
14 - Valparaiso, Harvard, Stephen F Austin, Long Beach State
15 - Stony Brook, Montana, Davidson, Florida Gulf Coast
16 - Niagara, Northeastern, Bryant/Norfolk State, Southern/Charleston Southern

Quick Hits:

• Florida's loss leaves the Big 10 with two number one seeds.  I won't get a lot of love from Indiana fans, but right now Michigan would be ahead of them on the curve and get Indianapolis.  It was luck of the draw to play them in Bloomington first.  Beat them in Ann Arbor and we have a different story.
• Ohio State stayed on the 4-line despite the loss last night.  It was a good road showing for the eye-test fans out there.  Partly this is projection, as the Buckeyes look to end up with more top 100 wins than the next grouping of teams.  So despite one more loss than 3 of the 5's, they will have an overall stronger body of work.  If they have two more losses than any of them, they will get dropped.  Finally, that was a Flagrant 1 on Aaron Craft last night and the officials thought they were making the right call not deciding the game at that point.  Instead they looked worse when they had to swallow their whistles again on Craft's final attempt.
• I might have Oregon higher than others, but they lost their last two without guard Dominic Artis, who is expected to return soon from a foot injury.  The committee will look at this if the Ducks finish strong with Artis in the line-up.
• The back-end of the bubble is pretty soft, so I am looking for a hot team or a bid-stealer to help that out.  The four teams that I have in the play-in games have flimsy parts of their resumes.  BYU has no top 50 wins.  Indiana State has 8 losses and some bad ones.  Temple is reeling and is hanging their hat on a win vs Syracuse.  St. John's has good wins, nothing great.  Lots of basketball to be played though.

College Basketball 2012-13 - Missouri Valley Progress Report

Keep in mind, a year ago a 28-5 Creighton with a 24 RPI got seeded 8th. 

Creighton (20-3, 9-2, RPI=28, Sag=15)
Top 25 Wins:  None
26-50 Wins:  Wisconsin
51-100 Wins:  Arizona State, St. Joseph's, Nebraska, Akron, California, Indiana State, Northern Iowa
Losses:  Boise State, Wichita State, Drake
Road/Neutral:  7-2
Bottom Line:  The Missouri Valley Champion will likely be a 5 or a 6 seed, depending on how strong they finish.  Right now, Creighton has the upper-hand and hosts Wichita State in the regular-season finale.

Wichita State (19-4, 8-3, RPI=26, Sag=42)
Top 25 Wins:  Creighton
26-50 Wins: VCU, Southern Miss
51-100 Wins: Iowa, Air Force, Northern Iowa
Losses: Tennessee, Evansville, Indiana State, Northern Iowa
Road/Neutral:  7-3
Bottom Line:  A bad week saw the Shockers fall out of first place in the Missouri Valley and to the middle of the bracket.  They still have the opportunity to win at Creighton and sweep the season series from the Blue Jays.

Indiana State (13-8, 7-4, RPI=53, Sag=89)
Top 25 Wins:  Miami, FL
26-50 Wins:  Ole Miss, Wichita State
51-100 Wins:  Northern Iowa, Northern Iowa
Losses:  UCLA, New Mexico, Morehead State, San Diego State, Creighton, Southern Illinois, Illinois State, Drake
Road/Neutral:  6-7
Bottom Line:  This is going to be an interesting team come Selection Sunday if they continue down their current path.  Not many bubble teams will be able to compare with their top 3 wins, but some of their losses are head-scratchers as well.  They have both Creighton and Wichita State remaining at home, so the opportunity exists for a 4th nice win.  They will also likely lose to someone they should not.  Teams with double-digit losses from non-major conferences typically go to the NIT.  The Sycamores need to beat either the Shockers or Blue Jays to try and offset all these losses.

NOTE:  Only teams with a top 75 RPI or Sagarin are listed

College Basketball 2012-13 - Atlantic 10 Progress Report

Butler (16-4, 4-2, RPI=13, Sag=33)
Top 25 Wins:  Marquette, Indiana, Gonzaga
26-50 Wins:  North Carolina, Temple
51-100 Wins:  Northwestern, St. Joseph's, Richmond
Losses: Xavier, Illinois, LaSalle, St. Louis
Road/Neutral:  7-4
Bottom Line:  Barring an unforeseen collapse, Butler is playing for seed right now.  Not many teams can match those Top 25 wins.

VCU (17-5, 5-2, RPI=43, Sag=31)
Top 25 Wins: Belmont
26-50 Wins: Memphis
51-100 Wins: Alabama, Lehigh, St. Joseph's
Losses: Wichita State, Duke, Missouri, Richmond, LaSalle
Road/Neutral: 7-3
Bottom Line:  VCU's recent struggles have them closer to the bubble than lock status.  7 games remain against the RPI top 100, including a showdown with Butler.  4 more wins getting them to 9-7 in conference should lock up a bid.

Temple (14-6, 3-3, RPI=50, Sag=54)
Top 25 Wins:  Syracuse
26-50 Wins:  None
51-100 Wins:  Villanova, St. Louis, Richmond
Losses:  Duke, Canisius, Kansas, Xavier, St. Bonaventure, Butler
Road/Neutral:  5-4
Bottom Line:  Temple also has had recent struggles placing them squarely on the bubble.  The win over Syracuse only carries weight if the rest of the resume stacks up.  6 games remain against the RPI top 100.  2 wins in those are a must and quite possibly 3 would be necessary.  If I was Temple, 10-6 in conference would be my target line.

St. Louis (15-5, 4-2, RPI=56, Sag=40)
Top 25 Wins:  New Mexico, Butler
26-50 Wins:  Massachusetts
51-100 Wins:  Texas A&M, Valparaiso
Losses:  Santa Clara, Kansas, Washington, Temple, Rhode Island
Road/Neutral: 3-3
Bottom Line:  HUGE win for St. Louis last night, giving them two impressive victories on their resume.  7 of the final 8 are against the RPI top 100 and the only one that is not is against surging George Washington.  The Billikens RPI is back at a tolerable level and they would be back in my Field of 68 if I produced a bracket today.  A 6-4 finish with 3 more top 100 wins would likely sew up a bid.

LaSalle (14-6, 4-3, RPI=31, Sag=59)
Top 25 Wins:  Butler
26-50 Wins:  VCU
51-100 Wins:  Villanova, Iona, Richmond
Losses:  Central Connecticut, Bucknell, Miami, FL, Charlotte, Xavier, Massachusetts
Road/Neutral:  5-4
Bottom Line:  Currently, the good RPI and 2 big wins have them in the Field of 68.  Unlike the teams above, LaSalle only has 3 of their final 9 against RPI top 100 teams, meaning the RPI is likely to fall and will take a big hit if they lose to anyone other than George Washington outside the top 100.  The Explorers might need to finish 7-2 or the A-10 Tourney, which should be wild anyway, could loom very important for them.

Charlotte (16-4, 4-2, RPI=62, Sag=110)
Top 25 Wins:  None
26-50 Wins:  LaSalle
51-100 Wins:  Xavier
Losses:  Miami FL, Florida State, Richmond, George Washington
Road/Neutral:  6-3
Bottom Line:  Gaudy record, lack of good wins. Next 6 games against the RPI Top 56.  If they can go 4-2 in those games, we'll talk.

Massachusetts (14-5, 4-2, RPI=48, Sag=101)
Top 25 Wins:  None
26-50 Wins:  LaSalle
51-100 Wins:  Harvard, Ohio, Richmond
Losses:  NC State, Tennessee, Miami, FL, St. Louis, George Washington
Road/Neutral:  8-3
Bottom Line:  See Charlotte as far as record and wins.  Also has 6 more cracks at the RPI top 100, starting with a showdown against Charlotte on Saturday.  Despite the RPI, a long shot at this point.

St. Joseph's (12-7, 3-3, RPI=90, Sag=58)
Top 25 Wins: None
26-50 Wins: Notre Dame
51-100 Wins: Harvard, Iona, Xavier
Losses: Florida State, Creighton, Villanova, Fairfield, Butler, VCU, St. Bonaventure
Road/Neutral: 6-4
Bottom Line:  The RPI needs to go from 90 to 55, and that might take an 8-2 finish.

Xavier (12-8, 5-2, RPI=70, Sag=78)
Top 25 Wins:  Butler
26-50 Wins:  LaSalle, Temple
51-100 Wins:  None
Losses:  Pacific, Vanderbilt, Cincinnati, Wofford, Tennessee, Wake Forest, Charlotte, St. Joseph's
Road/Neutral:  4-6
Bottom Line:  The quality wins are there, but so are the typical bad losses.  Xavier is tied for the A-10 lead, but is a long shot for a bid as we stand today.  The Good News:  The final 5 games are against the RPI top 56.  The Bad News:  They can't trip up in the next 5 against lesser opponents, something they can't seem to avoid.  An 8-2 finish and 12-4 in the A-10 should at least put them on the bubble.

NOTE:  Only teams with a top 75 RPI or Sagarin are listed

Field of 68 - January 31, 2013

Last edition for this month, still a lot of basketball to be played.  Others considered...St. Mary's, Wyoming, BYU, Southern Miss, St. Louis, Florida State, Alabama, Massachusetts, Maryland, Stanford, Xavier, Boise State, Rutgers.

Midwest - Indianapolis, IN
1.    Michigan
16.  Southern U./Bryant
Auburn Hills, MI
8.    Ole Miss
9.    Oklahoma State

5.    UNLV
12.  Middle Tennessee
San Jose, CA
4.    Cincinnati
13.  Louisiana Tech

6.    Georgetown
11.  Kentucky
Salt Lake City, UT
3.    Gonzaga
14.  Stephen F. Austin

7.    UCLA
10.  Wisconsin
Austin, TX
2.    Miami, FL
15.  Montana

East - Washington D.C.
1.    Duke
16.  Norfolk State/Charleston Southern
Philadelphia, PA
8.    Colorado State
9.    Colorado

5.    Minnesota
12.  Arizona State/St. John's
Dayton, OH
4.    Butler
13.  Bucknell

6.    Kansas State
11.  Temple
Auburn Hills, MI
3.    Michigan State
14.  Harvard

7.    Missouri
10.  Baylor
Philadelphia, PA
2.   Syracuse
15. Northeastern

South - Arlington, TX
1.    Kansas
16.  Florida Gulf Coast
Kansas City, MO
8.    Illinois
9.    North Carolina

5.    Marquette
12.  Memphis
San Jose, CA
4.    Oregon
13.  North Dakota State

6.    Wichita State
11.  Villanova
Austin, TX
3.    New Mexico
14.  Long Beach State

7.    Notre Dame
10.  LaSalle
Lexington, KY
2.    Indiana
15.  Stony Brook

West
1.    Florida
16.  Niagara
Lexington, KY
8.    Oklahoma
9.    Pittsburgh

5.    NC State
12.  Belmont
Kansas City, MO
4.    Ohio State
13.  Akron

6.    San Diego State
11.  Indiana State/Iowa State
Dayton, OH
3.    Louisville
14.  Valparaiso

7.    Creighton
10.  VCU
Salt Lake City, UT
2.    Arizona
15.  Davidson

Field of 68 - January 24, 2013

Lots of mini-shuffling with all the upsets this week!!


Midwest - Indianapolis, IN
1.    Michigan
16.  Southern U./Jacksonville
Auburn Hills, MI
8.    Creighton
9.    Baylor

5.    UCLA
12.  Belmont
Austin, TX
4.    Cincinnati
13.  Akron

6.    UNLV
11.  Temple
San Jose, CA
3.    Gonzaga
14.  Montana

7.    VCU
10.  Wisconsin
Philadelphia, PA
2.    Duke
15.  Bryant

East - Washington D.C.
1.    Syracuse
16.  Norfolk State/Charleston Southern
Philadelphia, PA
8.    Oklahoma
9.    Colorado State

5.    Ohio State
12.  Middle Tennessee
Austin, TX
4.    Wichita State
13.  Louisiana Tech

6.    Missouri
11.  LaSalle
Dayton, OH
3.    Miami, FL
14.  Stephen F Austin

7.    Pittsburgh
10.  Colorado
Lexington, KY
2.   Indiana
15.  Stony Brook

South - Arlington, TX
1.    Kansas
16.  Northeastern
Kansas City, MO
8.    Notre Dame
9.    San Diego State

5.    NC State
12.  Memphis
San Jose, CA
4.    Oregon
13.  North Dakota State

6.    Marquette
11.  St. Mary's
Auburn Hills, MI
3.    Michigan State
14.  Valparaiso

7.    Ole Miss
10.  Oklahoma State
Salt Lake City, UT
2.    New Mexico
15.  Long Beach State

West
1.    Florida
16.  Niagara
Lexington, KY
8.    North Carolina
9.    Georgetown

5.    Butler
12.  Iowa State/Boise State
Dayton, OH
4.    Minnesota
13.  Lehigh

6.    Kansas State
11.  Alabama/Maryland
Dayton, OH
3.    Louisville
14.  Harvard

7.    Illinois
10.  Wyoming
Salt Lake City, UT
2.    Arizona
15.  Davidson

College Basketball 2012-13 - Big 12 Progress Report

The Big 12 is a solid 6-bid league at this point, with only Kansas contending for a top-seed line.  Right now, Oklahoma State is in the most trouble going 2-4 in thei last 6, but not really in danger yet.

Kansas (16-1, 4-0, RPI=3, Sag=5)
Top 25 Wins:  Colorado
26-50 Wins:  Ohio State, Belmont, Temple, Iowa State, Baylor
51-100 Wins:  St. Louis, Richmond
Losses: Michigan State
Road/Neutral:  6-1

Kansas State (14-2, 4-0, RPI=30, Sag=34)
Top 25 Wins: Florida, Oklahoma
26-50 Wins: Oklahoma State
51-100 Wins: West Virginia
Losses: Michigan, Gonzaga
Road/Neutral: 5-2

Oklahoma (13-4, 4-1, RPI=23, Sag=42)
Top 25 Wins:  None
26-50 Wins:  Oklahoma State
51-100 Wins:  UTEP, West Virginia, Oral Roberts, Texas A&M, West Virginia
Losses:  Gonzaga, Arkansas, Stephen F. Austin, Kansas State
Road/Neutral:  6-3

Oklahoma State (12-5, 2-3, RPI=43, Sag=33)
Top 25 Wins:  NC State
26-50 Wins:  None
51-100 Wins:  Akron, South Florida
Losses:  Virginia Tech, Gonzaga, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Baylor
Road/Neutral: 3-4

Baylor (12-5, 4-1, RPI=37, Sag=30)
Top 25 Wins:  None
26-50 Wins:  BYU, Oklahoma State
51-100 Wins:  Lehigh, St. John's, Kentucky
Losses:  Colorado, College of Charleston, Northwestern, Gonzaga, Kansas
Road/Neutral:  4-3

Iowa State (13-4, 3-1, RPI=38, Sag=35)
Top 25 Wins:  None
26-50 Wins:  BYU
51-100 Wins:  West Virginia
Losses:  Cincinnati, UNLV, Iowa, Kansas
Road/Neutral:  3-4

NOTE:  Only teams with a top 75 RPI or Sagarin are listed

College Basketball 2012-13 - Field of 68, January 20, 2013

Kentucky is back in, as I am having trouble finding 68 teams at this point.  Would somebody please step-up?  My last team in is Rutgers, mainly because a Big East team with a Top 50 RPI usually doesn't get left out.

Midwest - Indianapolis, IN
1.    Michigan
16.  Southern U./Mercer
Auburn Hills, MI
8.    North Carolina
9.    Oklahoma State

5.    Oregon
12.  Memphis
San Jose, CA
4.    Cincinnati
13.  Louisiana Tech

6.    Notre Dame
11.  Iowa
Austin, TX
3.    Miami, FL
14.  Stephen F Austin

7.    UNLV
10.  Iowa State
Lexington, KY
2.    Florida
15.  Valparaiso

East - Washington D.C.
1.    Duke
16.  Norfolk State/Charleston Southern
Philadelphia, PA
8.    Ole Miss
9.    San Diego State

5.    Wichita State
12.  Belmont
Austin, TX
4.    Michigan State
13.  Akron

6.    Ohio State
11.  Boise State/Rutgers
Auburn Hills, MI
3.    Butler
14.  Harvard

7.    Oklahoma
10.  Colorado
Philadelphia, PA
2.   Syracuse
15.  Stony Brook

South - Arlington, TX
1.    Kansas
16.  Bryant
Kansas City, MO
8.    Pittsburgh
9.    Illinois

5.    VCU
12.  Kentucky/St. Mary's
Dayton, OH
4.    NC State
13.  Bucknell

6.    Creighton
11.  Temple
Kansas City, MO
3.    Minnesota
14.  Niagara

7.    UCLA
10.  Wyoming
Lexington, KY
2.    Louisville
15.  Montana

West
1.    Arizona
16.  Northeastern
San Jose, CA
8.    Colorado State
9.    Wisconsin

5.    Kansas State
12.  Middle Tennessee
Salt Lake City, UT
4.    Gonzaga
13.  North Dakota State

6.    Missouri
11.  Georgetown
Salt Lake City, UT
3.    New Mexico
14.  Long Beach State

7.    Marquette
10.  Baylor
Dayton, OH
2.    Indiana
15.  Davidson