Bracketology - March 4, 2026

I have updated the resume comparison chart and had a little movement last night.  Here are some of my takes and observations as we enter the last 5 days of the regular season.

• While Florida is overtaking UConn in most metrics, I believe the 3 loss difference, better Quad 1A record for UConn and the head-to-head victory for UConn on a neutral floor all keep the Huskies ahead of the Gators.  For now.
• St. Mary's is a tough one to seed as an at-large with only one quad one win.  Typically that is First Four material if in the field at all.  Begrudgingly I have them as a 7, but the committee did throw in Quad 2 last year when justifying UNC and Xavier and that at least helps St. Mary's match a little closer to their very good metrics.
• BYU is reeling without Richie Saunders and I wouldn't be surprised if their seed is lowered if it continues this way over the next 10 days.
• Teams used to never be selected as an at-large if they had a losing record in combined Quad 1+2+3.  Then the major conferences became so large that teams 1 or 2 below .500 in Quad 1+2+3 were given bids when they had a higher number of Quad 1 wins (see 2025 Texas).  Auburn has 5 Quad 1 wins but is 4! games below .500 in Quad 1+2+3.  That is not at-large worthy.
• Indiana has a lot of issues, but the most glaring is the 4 combined wins in Quad 1 & 2.  Last season, the fewest an at-large team had was 8.  I don't see how Indiana can overcome that.
• I am also not there on VCU with 1 Quad 1 and 5 Quad 1+2 wins.  Which brings me to Ohio State, Santa Clara, Cincinnati and New Mexico as the last 4 in as of today.  Ohio State got their solid Quad 1 win to match their better-than-most bubble team metrics.  Santa Clara gets the same let's ignore Quad 1 and focus on Quad 2 treatment as St. Mary's.  Cincinnati is surging, adding quality wins and is also showing very good predictive metrics.  New Mexico is posting a solidly unspectacular resume that lacks the holes of other teams I have identified.  Plus I am thinking Ohio State vs Cincinnati in Dayton sounds scandalous!