Bracketology - March 15, 2026 Preliminary

Here is the final resume comparison with just 2 games to go.  I have scrubbed the seeds and this is where I am at.  Awaiting the American Conference Championship.  If South Florida wins, they will be an 11.  If Wichita State wins, they will be a 12 and Akron will be an 11.

There was a lot of resume jockeying in the 2 to 5 seed range this week.  Teams losing early who were ahead of teams that added several quality wins and improved metrics.  I just question how much of this the committee will consider, as notoriously they have not.

For instance, everything about Vanderbilt's resume after the Florida win would put them as a #3 seed.  They have a neutral court win over a #1 seed, 5 Quad 1A wins and 10 total Quad 1 wins.  Nebraska on the other hand is below 12 in five of seven metrics, which would lean more of a 4 seed than a 3.  Wins at Illinois and home against Michigan State and Wisconsin are nice, but not better than Florida, 2 against Tennessee, Alabama and Kentucky.  Virginia is in the discussion, but their best wins are at Louisville, at NC State and neutral against Ohio State.  Finally Gonzaga has a neutral over Alabama and Kentucky, plus St. Mary's and Santa Clara twice.  To me its no question Vanderbilt, but two of their wins above occurred Friday and Saturday.  Then it looks like Nebraska by wins, but the metrics are now lagging.

The same hold true for Arkansas, who just won the SEC tournament.  Here though, it seemed like an easy contingency to swap Arkansas and Alabama if the Hogs won, which they did.  Another interesting team will be Kansas and their reputation.  They are 9-9 in Quad 1, but the predictive metrics don't believe they are better than a 5.  St. John's does not have the number of Quad 1 wins, but they land well ahead of Kansas in the metrics.  I have moved St. John's up to a 4 but am least confident in that swap.

As far as the bubble, I am including Texas as my last team in for one reason.  TV.  Saw it last year with North Carolina.  They need eyes on the First 4.  Texas in one game and Miami OH in the other brings about the most eyes possible.

Bracket to come next, final seeds to be posted by 4:45 (reserving right for last minute changes).