Bracketology - March 9, 2026 - The Bracket plus commentary

Below is a bracket put together based on my seeds released last night.  What always seems logical to me is never logical to the committee, so view this under that perspective.

Today is a relatively quiet day, with a few championship games and the WCC semifinals headlining the action.  If you aren't rooting for Georgia Southern to complete the 6 day gauntlet in the Sun Belt, you have to be a Troy alum.  Tomorrow will start right into major conference tournaments, with Wednesday really picking up with bubble teams and then Thursday and Friday are wall-to-wall basketball days made for a college basketball junkie.

Here is where I am at and what I am monitoring as we head into this week:

• I would be shocked if these aren't the four #1 seeds when announced on Sunday.  Florida had clearly moved ahead of Connecticut already in most metrics and eye-test.  The bad home loss to Marquette was the "reason" needed to move Florida ahead on the seed lines.  I am also not sure Connecticut is even the team that could steal that from Florida.  I would give Houston a better shot if they run through the Big 12 tournament and Florida loses a quarterfinal or maybe a semifinal in the SEC.
• I moved Alabama up to the last #3, as their resume and metrics have ascended that last couple weeks. It's close with Gonzaga and I will continue to scrub those teams all week.  Otherwise Kansas winning the Big 12 tournament would warrant consideration for a move to the 3-line.
• Texas Tech may finally be feeling the JT Toppin effect, falling to the #5 line in this bracket.  Vanderbilt had a strong week and surged ahead of the Red Raiders in metrics.  Considering the Toppin injury, this feels like the right move as well.
• The Caleb Wilson injury is giving me a harder time because North Carolina beat Louisville without him.  Louisville just happens to be one of the teams in consideration with North Carolina for a #5 seed.  Wisconsin has a case as well with its high-end wins, it is just tough to overlook the mediocre losses.
• St. Mary's continues to be a difficult team to seed.  Last year, they were 27-5 with 4 Quad 1 wins and received a #7 seed.  Currently at 26-4 with 1 Quad 1 win, it would seem a notch below last year, which is why they come in as a #8 for me.
• This bubble is frustrating and terrible.  I blame the Big East and Mountain West (see yesterday's post).  We are still looking at bid stealers out of the MAC and Mountain West to help harden? the bubble.  Moving VCU in the field makes the Atlantic 10 a 2-bid league and they will not be a 3-bid league.  Otherwise, all these teams need wins.  One team to point out is the late surge from Stanford.  It might be too late but at least they are playing like they want a spot

Bracketology - March 8, 2026

I have a little bit of a hybrid here due to timing and when I was able to get things out today (late!).  Resume comparison chart is updated with records through Sunday but the metrics through Saturday.

Let's talk a minute about Saturday.  That was not a quiet day in the Bracketology world.  We had a shift on the #1 line, some jockeying throughout the bracket and then pretty much every bubble team losing.  VCU was the clear winner of all that chaos as they now slide into the last 4 in because sometimes, solid and unspectacular is better than extremely volatile.  

I was thinking about how soft this bubble is, mainly from the perspective of whether this is going to be an adjusted norm in the NIL and transfer portal era.  The soft bubble is partially being caused by 2 conferences having down years.  The Big East is a 3-bid league, normally counted on for 5 or 6.  The Mountain West is a 1-bid league, lately it has been anywhere from 3 to 5.  If we had that normal distribution this year, the bubble would look much better.  The Big East should bounce back.  The Mountain West morphs partially into the PAC-12 and will likely be a multiple bid league going forward, potentially at the expense of the West Coast Conference becoming a 1-bid league.  

I will do my best to keep updating as things will be fluid this week.  The metrics are typically updated overnight, but the key set will likely be those on Saturday morning, as I believe much of the seeding is set Saturday and results Saturday and Sunday do not have great impact on the final bracket.

Bracketology - March 6, 2026 - The Bracket

 

Bracketology - March 6, 2026

I have updated the resume comparison chart through Thursday night's games.  A couple seed tweaks but not a lot of major movement.  I will try and get a bracket out today as well.

Let's talk bid thieves for a moment, as one change was that I moved Indiana back in the field over New Mexico as the last team in.  That makes the Mountain West a 1-bid league at the moment.  Looking at the Mountain West, I believe any of 8 teams could win the conference tournament.  I would rate the probability of a bid thief here as very high.

Another pretty high bid thief probability is that Miami OH does not win the MAC conference tournament.  If the Redhawks complete an undefeated regular season tonight against Ohio, I believe they have at least booked a ticket to Dayton.  Given the number of close games they have played recently, finally tripping up in the MAC tournament is definitely a possibility.

Next up is the Atlantic 10, where St. Louis has likely done enough to earn an at-large bid if they lose in the A-10 Tourney.  VCU is always a tough out in that tournament, and Daytona and St. Joseph's are both coming in hot.

Those 3 are clearly the most likely bid thieves and I would not be shocked if we at least got 2 of those.  Absent a complete shocker in the top 4 conferences a la DJ Burns and NC State, the only other real bid thieves could be Seton Hall in the Big East (or an even lower seeded Big East team) or a West Coast Conference surprise like Oregon State or Seattle.  I would put all these as highly unlikely.

Enjoy the Basketball this weekend!

Bracketology - March 4, 2026

I have updated the resume comparison chart and had a little movement last night.  Here are some of my takes and observations as we enter the last 5 days of the regular season.

• While Florida is overtaking UConn in most metrics, I believe the 3 loss difference, better Quad 1A record for UConn and the head-to-head victory for UConn on a neutral floor all keep the Huskies ahead of the Gators.  For now.
• St. Mary's is a tough one to seed as an at-large with only one quad one win.  Typically that is First Four material if in the field at all.  Begrudgingly I have them as a 7, but the committee did throw in Quad 2 last year when justifying UNC and Xavier and that at least helps St. Mary's match a little closer to their very good metrics.
• BYU is reeling without Richie Saunders and I wouldn't be surprised if their seed is lowered if it continues this way over the next 10 days.
• Teams used to never be selected as an at-large if they had a losing record in combined Quad 1+2+3.  Then the major conferences became so large that teams 1 or 2 below .500 in Quad 1+2+3 were given bids when they had a higher number of Quad 1 wins (see 2025 Texas).  Auburn has 5 Quad 1 wins but is 4! games below .500 in Quad 1+2+3.  That is not at-large worthy.
• Indiana has a lot of issues, but the most glaring is the 4 combined wins in Quad 1 & 2.  Last season, the fewest an at-large team had was 8.  I don't see how Indiana can overcome that.
• I am also not there on VCU with 1 Quad 1 and 5 Quad 1+2 wins.  Which brings me to Ohio State, Santa Clara, Cincinnati and New Mexico as the last 4 in as of today.  Ohio State got their solid Quad 1 win to match their better-than-most bubble team metrics.  Santa Clara gets the same let's ignore Quad 1 and focus on Quad 2 treatment as St. Mary's.  Cincinnati is surging, adding quality wins and is also showing very good predictive metrics.  New Mexico is posting a solidly unspectacular resume that lacks the holes of other teams I have identified.  Plus I am thinking Ohio State vs Cincinnati in Dayton sounds scandalous!

March 3, 2026 - Bracket

Here is a look at a bracket matching the seeds I released yesterday.  Last night's games did not change any seeding or placement.

Bracketology March 2, 2026

Updated comparison chart with seedings.

	Record	Q1A	Q1	Q1+Q2	Q1+Q2+Q3	Results-Based Metrics (Avg)	Predictive Metrics (Avg)	All 7 Metrics (Avg)	Projected Seed
Michigan	26-2	6-1	11-1	21-2	24-2	1.25	1.67	1.43	1
Duke	27-2	7-2	12-2	18-2	19-2	2.00	1.33	1.71	1
Arizona	26-2	6-2	13-2	18-2	20-2	2.75	3.00	2.86	1
Connecticut	27-3	5-2	8-2	17-2	22-3	5.00	9.33	6.86	1
Florida	23-6	3-3	10-5	16-6	18-6	5.25	4.33	4.86	2
Houston	24-5	3-5	7-5	15-5	17-5	8.50	5.00	7.00	2
Illinois	22-7	6-6	8-6	14-7	17-7	11.25	5.67	8.86	2
Michigan State	24-5	3-4	8-5	15-5	20-5	8.00	10.67	9.14	2
Purdue	22-7	5-6	8-7	12-7	19-7	12.25	8.00	10.43	3
Iowa State	24-5	4-3	6-5	14-5	17-5	12.75	8.00	10.71	3
Nebraska	25-4	3-4	8-4	12-4	19-4	10.50	12.67	11.43	3
Texas Tech	22-7	4-5	7-7	11-7	19-7	11.00	13.33	12.00	3
Alabama	22-7	4-5	8-6	15-7	20-7	9.75	15.33	12.14	4
Gonzaga	28-3	2-2	6-2	11-2	19-3	13.00	11.33	12.29	4
Kansas	21-8	6-5	7-7	15-8	17-8	11.50	16.00	13.43	4
Virginia	25-4	4-1	7-3	13-4	18-4	12.75	19.33	15.57	4
Vanderbilt	22-7	2-4	7-6	14-7	16-7	18.25	15.33	17.00	5
Arkansas	21-8	1-7	6-8	12-8	15-8	18.75	21.00	19.71	5
North Carolina	23-6	4-4	6-6	9-6	18-6	18.75	27.33	22.43	5
St. John's	23-6	2-2	3-5	12-6	20-6	19.50	19.67	19.57	5
Tennessee	20-9	4-5	5-8	11-9	13-9	21.75	15.00	18.86	6
St. Mary's	26-4	1-3	1-3	9-4	19-4	22.75	23.00	22.86	8
BYU	20-9	1-6	6-7	11-9	15-9	24.25	26.33	25.14	6
Louisville	20-9	0-8	7-9	10-9	12-9	25.75	16.33	21.71	6
Kentucky	19-10	3-7	6-8	10-10	13-10	26.75	25.67	26.29	6
Villanova	22-7	0-5	3-6	10-6	18-7	27.25	36.67	31.29	7
Utah State	23-5	0-0	3-4	10-4	19-5	28.00	27.00	27.57	7
St. Louis	25-3	0-0	2-1	7-2	15-3	28.25	26.33	27.43	8
Wisconsin	20-9	3-4	6-7	12-9	14-9	28.75	26.67	27.86	7
Miami FL	23-6	1-4	3-4	10-5	12-6	29.75	37.33	33.00	7
Clemson	21-8	0-3	6-5	11-7	14-8	32.50	29.67	31.29	8
NC State	19-10	2-5	4-7	11-9	15-9	34.25	30.33	32.57	9
Iowa	20-9	1-6	3-7	10-8	12-9	35.50	28.00	32.29	8
Georgia	20-9	1-4	5-7	10-8	11-9	33.75	36.00	34.71	9
Ohio State	18-11	1-9	2-10	8-11	12-11	39.25	34.00	37.00	11p
Texas	17-11	1-8	6-8	8-10	10-11	41.25	33.33	37.86	9
UCF	20-8	3-3	4-5	10-8	13-8	32.25	48.67	39.29	9
SMU	19-10	0-5	4-8	7-10	12-10	39.50	41.00	40.14	10
Santa Clara	23-7	0-4	1-5	8-6	15-6	41.50	39.00	40.43	11p
UCLA	19-10	2-7	3-8	9-10	12-10	42.25	39.00	40.86	10
Auburn	15-14	2-7	5-11	7-13	9-14	43.75	37.67	41.14
Missouri	20-9	2-4	5-5	10-9	12-9	39.25	44.33	41.43	10
Texas A&M	19-10	3-5	4-6	8-10	11-10	47.00	34.67	41.71	10
VCU	22-7	0-3	1-5	5-7	13-7	44.00	47.67	45.57
Indiana	17-12	2-8	2-11	4-12	10-12	51.50	38.67	46.00
New Mexico	21-7	0-1	2-5	8-6	12-7	44.25	48.67	46.14	11p
San Diego State	18-9	0-3	2-5	7-8	12-9	48.75	45.00	47.14	11p
TCU	19-10	2-5	4-6	9-8	12-9	44.25	51.33	47.29	11
Cincinnati	16-13	2-5	2-10	6-12	9-12	59.50	40.00	51.14
Virginia Tech	18-11	2-7	2-9	8-10	11-12	48.50	59.00	53.00
Seton Hall	19-10	0-4	2-4	7-8	13-10	56.50	56.67	56.57
Baylor	14-14	0-7	3-11	7-14	9-14	63.50	48.67	57.14
Miami OH	26-0	0-0	0-0	1-0	10-0	38.25	83.67	57.71	11
USC	17-11	1-8	2-8	9-10	13-11	55.00	61.67	57.86
West Virginia	17-12	1-4	5-7	6-11	9-12	61.25	56.00	59.00
Tulsa	21-6	0-0	0-1	4-4	12-6	58.50	61.00	59.57
California	19-9	1-2	4-4	6-8	11-9	53.75	71.67	61.43
Stanford	18-11	1-3	4-5	7-8	11-11	60.00	68.33	63.57
Belmont	25-5	0-0	0-0	5-2	16-5	49.75	71.33	59.00	12
South Florida	20-8	0-1	2-2	6-5	13-8	51.25	54.00	52.43	12
Yale	20-5	0-1	0-1	2-1	12-4	61.75	92.00	74.71	12
Liberty	21-5	0-1	1-1	3-1	10-5	68.50	107.00	85.00	12
Stephen F Austin	24-4	0-0	0-1	1-1	7-3	77.25	91.67	83.43	13
NC Wilmington	23-5	0-0	0-0	0-1	7-4	79.50	111.00	93.00	13
High Point	24-4	0-0	0-0	0-2	3-4	80.25	81.67	80.86	13
Utah Valley	19-7	0-0	0-2	0-3	8-6	83.50	93.00	87.57	13
Hawaii	19-7	0-0	0-0	0-4	6-6	101.75	114.67	107.29	14
North Dakota State	21-7	0-0	0-0	0-1	6-5	114.25	124.67	118.71	14
Navy	23-6	0-1	0-1	0-4	1-4	119.25	136.33	126.57	14
Troy	18-11	0-0	1-1	3-1	6-8	129.00	148.67	137.43	14
Austin Peay	19-8	0-0	0-1	0-3	2-6	131.25	158.33	142.86	15
East Tenn State	19-10	0-1	0-2	0-2	3-5	140.25	146.33	142.86	15
Merrimack	21-10	0-2	0-2	0-3	3-8	140.50	170.67	153.43	15
Wright State	18-11	0-0	0-1	0-3	4-9	150.25	143.67	147.43	15
Portland State	15-10	0-0	0-1	0-4	7-7	157.75	172.33	164.00	16
Long Island	21-10	0-2	0-2	0-4	1-7	169.75	218.33	190.57	16
UMBC	18-8	0-0	0-2	0-4	0-5	175.25	213.67	191.71	16
Bethune Cookman	16-13	0-4	0-7	0-8	1-8	194.00	227.67	208.43	16
Howard	15-10	0-1	0-2	1-4	2-4	202.25	198.67	200.71	16
Morehead State	16-12	0-2	0-3	0-5	1-7	207.25	283.33	239.86	16