Bracketology - March 15, 2026 - Seed List

Here is the official seed list.  Based on past history, Gonzaga will probably be a 3, Vandy a 4, Kansas and Alabama a 4 and Arkansas and St. John's a 5.  But that's just a lazy committee saying conference tournament games are really not data points. So here we go!!

1 - Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Florida

2 - Houston, Connecticut, Iowa State, Purdue

3 - Michigan State, Illinois, Vanderbilt, Nebraska

4 - Gonzaga, Virginia, St. John's, Arkansas

5 - Kansas, Alabama, Texas Tech, Wisconsin

6 - Louisville, Tennessee, BYU, North Carolina

7 - Kentucky, UCLA, Miami FL, Clemson

8 - Utah State, St. Mary's, Georgia, Villanova

9 - Ohio State, TCU, Iowa, NC State

10 - UCF, Texas A&M, St. Louis, Santa Clara

11 - VCU, South Florida, SMU, Missouri, Miami OH, Texas

12 - Akron, McNeese, High Point, Northern Iowa

13 - Hofstra, Cal Baptist, Hawaii, North Dakota State

14 - Troy, Penn, Wright State, Kennesaw State

15 - Tennessee State, Idaho, Furman, Siena

16 - Queens, UMBC, Long Island, Howard, Lehigh, Prairie View

Bracketology - March 15, 2026 - The Bracket

I always like my bracket, for whatever that is worth.  Contingent still on the American championship game.  If Wichita State wins, put Akron where South Florida is on the 11 and put Wichita State where Akron in on the 12.

Bracketology - March 15, 2026 Preliminary

Here is the final resume comparison with just 2 games to go.  I have scrubbed the seeds and this is where I am at.  Awaiting the American Conference Championship.  If South Florida wins, they will be an 11.  If Wichita State wins, they will be a 12 and Akron will be an 11.

There was a lot of resume jockeying in the 2 to 5 seed range this week.  Teams losing early who were ahead of teams that added several quality wins and improved metrics.  I just question how much of this the committee will consider, as notoriously they have not.

For instance, everything about Vanderbilt's resume after the Florida win would put them as a #3 seed.  They have a neutral court win over a #1 seed, 5 Quad 1A wins and 10 total Quad 1 wins.  Nebraska on the other hand is below 12 in five of seven metrics, which would lean more of a 4 seed than a 3.  Wins at Illinois and home against Michigan State and Wisconsin are nice, but not better than Florida, 2 against Tennessee, Alabama and Kentucky.  Virginia is in the discussion, but their best wins are at Louisville, at NC State and neutral against Ohio State.  Finally Gonzaga has a neutral over Alabama and Kentucky, plus St. Mary's and Santa Clara twice.  To me its no question Vanderbilt, but two of their wins above occurred Friday and Saturday.  Then it looks like Nebraska by wins, but the metrics are now lagging.

The same hold true for Arkansas, who just won the SEC tournament.  Here though, it seemed like an easy contingency to swap Arkansas and Alabama if the Hogs won, which they did.  Another interesting team will be Kansas and their reputation.  They are 9-9 in Quad 1, but the predictive metrics don't believe they are better than a 5.  St. John's does not have the number of Quad 1 wins, but they land well ahead of Kansas in the metrics.  I have moved St. John's up to a 4 but am least confident in that swap.

As far as the bubble, I am including Texas as my last team in for one reason.  TV.  Saw it last year with North Carolina.  They need eyes on the First 4.  Texas in one game and Miami OH in the other brings about the most eyes possible.

Bracket to come next, final seeds to be posted by 4:45 (reserving right for last minute changes).

Bracketology - March 14, 2026 (early)

Here is a quick morning update before I do some non-basketball events.  I need time to flush through later.  Happy Saturday!

Bracketology - March 13, 2026

Here is the seed updates through mainly Thursday's action.  It is now getting to the point where things are coming together in the committee room as things continue to take shape.

The big topic of course is Miami OH.  In the end, I think they will be included in the field.  And I do not believe they are competing with Auburn for a spot.  The Tigers are out.  Teams that went 11-16 vs the top 3 quadrants should not be included in the dance.

I will try and get a bracket up later today.  It might incorporate in any movement between now and then as well.

Bracketology - March 12, 2026

A quick update to the resume comparison and projected seeds.  Biggest change today is Auburn and New Mexico in and Texas and Indiana out.  These spots are very temporary, as an Auburn loss today will make it very difficult to include them in the field due to overall record and record vs Quad 1+2+3.  New Mexico might just be a place holder for a bid stealer out of the Mountain West, but we are not there yet.  The seed jockeying above the bubble has been quiet thus far this week, but there will be some movement the next 2 days with all these teams in action.  Enjoy!

Bracketology - March 11, 2026

The calm before the storm...updated resume comparison chart with current seed projection below.  

We can eliminate Stanford and Virginia Tech who failed to seize opportunity and lost in the opening round of the ACC Tournament yesterday.  Lots of bubble teams in action today as we look for someone, anyone, who wants to play their way into the tournament.