Jabesblog

Tuesday, March 3, 2026

March 3, 2026 - Bracket

Here is a look at a bracket matching the seeds I released yesterday. Last night's games did not change any seeding or placement.

Monday, March 2, 2026

Bracketology March 2, 2026

Updated comparison chart with seedings.

	Record	Q1A	Q1	Q1+Q2	Q1+Q2+Q3	Results-Based Metrics (Avg)	Predictive Metrics (Avg)	All 7 Metrics (Avg)	Projected Seed
Michigan	26-2	6-1	11-1	21-2	24-2	1.25	1.67	1.43	1
Duke	27-2	7-2	12-2	18-2	19-2	2.00	1.33	1.71	1
Arizona	26-2	6-2	13-2	18-2	20-2	2.75	3.00	2.86	1
Connecticut	27-3	5-2	8-2	17-2	22-3	5.00	9.33	6.86	1
Florida	23-6	3-3	10-5	16-6	18-6	5.25	4.33	4.86	2
Houston	24-5	3-5	7-5	15-5	17-5	8.50	5.00	7.00	2
Illinois	22-7	6-6	8-6	14-7	17-7	11.25	5.67	8.86	2
Michigan State	24-5	3-4	8-5	15-5	20-5	8.00	10.67	9.14	2
Purdue	22-7	5-6	8-7	12-7	19-7	12.25	8.00	10.43	3
Iowa State	24-5	4-3	6-5	14-5	17-5	12.75	8.00	10.71	3
Nebraska	25-4	3-4	8-4	12-4	19-4	10.50	12.67	11.43	3
Texas Tech	22-7	4-5	7-7	11-7	19-7	11.00	13.33	12.00	3
Alabama	22-7	4-5	8-6	15-7	20-7	9.75	15.33	12.14	4
Gonzaga	28-3	2-2	6-2	11-2	19-3	13.00	11.33	12.29	4
Kansas	21-8	6-5	7-7	15-8	17-8	11.50	16.00	13.43	4
Virginia	25-4	4-1	7-3	13-4	18-4	12.75	19.33	15.57	4
Vanderbilt	22-7	2-4	7-6	14-7	16-7	18.25	15.33	17.00	5
Arkansas	21-8	1-7	6-8	12-8	15-8	18.75	21.00	19.71	5
North Carolina	23-6	4-4	6-6	9-6	18-6	18.75	27.33	22.43	5
St. John's	23-6	2-2	3-5	12-6	20-6	19.50	19.67	19.57	5
Tennessee	20-9	4-5	5-8	11-9	13-9	21.75	15.00	18.86	6
St. Mary's	26-4	1-3	1-3	9-4	19-4	22.75	23.00	22.86	8
BYU	20-9	1-6	6-7	11-9	15-9	24.25	26.33	25.14	6
Louisville	20-9	0-8	7-9	10-9	12-9	25.75	16.33	21.71	6
Kentucky	19-10	3-7	6-8	10-10	13-10	26.75	25.67	26.29	6
Villanova	22-7	0-5	3-6	10-6	18-7	27.25	36.67	31.29	7
Utah State	23-5	0-0	3-4	10-4	19-5	28.00	27.00	27.57	7
St. Louis	25-3	0-0	2-1	7-2	15-3	28.25	26.33	27.43	8
Wisconsin	20-9	3-4	6-7	12-9	14-9	28.75	26.67	27.86	7
Miami FL	23-6	1-4	3-4	10-5	12-6	29.75	37.33	33.00	7
Clemson	21-8	0-3	6-5	11-7	14-8	32.50	29.67	31.29	8
NC State	19-10	2-5	4-7	11-9	15-9	34.25	30.33	32.57	9
Iowa	20-9	1-6	3-7	10-8	12-9	35.50	28.00	32.29	8
Georgia	20-9	1-4	5-7	10-8	11-9	33.75	36.00	34.71	9
Ohio State	18-11	1-9	2-10	8-11	12-11	39.25	34.00	37.00	11p
Texas	17-11	1-8	6-8	8-10	10-11	41.25	33.33	37.86	9
UCF	20-8	3-3	4-5	10-8	13-8	32.25	48.67	39.29	9
SMU	19-10	0-5	4-8	7-10	12-10	39.50	41.00	40.14	10
Santa Clara	23-7	0-4	1-5	8-6	15-6	41.50	39.00	40.43	11p
UCLA	19-10	2-7	3-8	9-10	12-10	42.25	39.00	40.86	10
Auburn	15-14	2-7	5-11	7-13	9-14	43.75	37.67	41.14
Missouri	20-9	2-4	5-5	10-9	12-9	39.25	44.33	41.43	10
Texas A&M	19-10	3-5	4-6	8-10	11-10	47.00	34.67	41.71	10
VCU	22-7	0-3	1-5	5-7	13-7	44.00	47.67	45.57
Indiana	17-12	2-8	2-11	4-12	10-12	51.50	38.67	46.00
New Mexico	21-7	0-1	2-5	8-6	12-7	44.25	48.67	46.14	11p
San Diego State	18-9	0-3	2-5	7-8	12-9	48.75	45.00	47.14	11p
TCU	19-10	2-5	4-6	9-8	12-9	44.25	51.33	47.29	11
Cincinnati	16-13	2-5	2-10	6-12	9-12	59.50	40.00	51.14
Virginia Tech	18-11	2-7	2-9	8-10	11-12	48.50	59.00	53.00
Seton Hall	19-10	0-4	2-4	7-8	13-10	56.50	56.67	56.57
Baylor	14-14	0-7	3-11	7-14	9-14	63.50	48.67	57.14
Miami OH	26-0	0-0	0-0	1-0	10-0	38.25	83.67	57.71	11
USC	17-11	1-8	2-8	9-10	13-11	55.00	61.67	57.86
West Virginia	17-12	1-4	5-7	6-11	9-12	61.25	56.00	59.00
Tulsa	21-6	0-0	0-1	4-4	12-6	58.50	61.00	59.57
California	19-9	1-2	4-4	6-8	11-9	53.75	71.67	61.43
Stanford	18-11	1-3	4-5	7-8	11-11	60.00	68.33	63.57

Belmont	25-5	0-0	0-0	5-2	16-5	49.75	71.33	59.00	12
South Florida	20-8	0-1	2-2	6-5	13-8	51.25	54.00	52.43	12
Yale	20-5	0-1	0-1	2-1	12-4	61.75	92.00	74.71	12
Liberty	21-5	0-1	1-1	3-1	10-5	68.50	107.00	85.00	12
Stephen F Austin	24-4	0-0	0-1	1-1	7-3	77.25	91.67	83.43	13
NC Wilmington	23-5	0-0	0-0	0-1	7-4	79.50	111.00	93.00	13
High Point	24-4	0-0	0-0	0-2	3-4	80.25	81.67	80.86	13
Utah Valley	19-7	0-0	0-2	0-3	8-6	83.50	93.00	87.57	13
Hawaii	19-7	0-0	0-0	0-4	6-6	101.75	114.67	107.29	14
North Dakota State	21-7	0-0	0-0	0-1	6-5	114.25	124.67	118.71	14
Navy	23-6	0-1	0-1	0-4	1-4	119.25	136.33	126.57	14
Troy	18-11	0-0	1-1	3-1	6-8	129.00	148.67	137.43	14
Austin Peay	19-8	0-0	0-1	0-3	2-6	131.25	158.33	142.86	15
East Tenn State	19-10	0-1	0-2	0-2	3-5	140.25	146.33	142.86	15
Merrimack	21-10	0-2	0-2	0-3	3-8	140.50	170.67	153.43	15
Wright State	18-11	0-0	0-1	0-3	4-9	150.25	143.67	147.43	15
Portland State	15-10	0-0	0-1	0-4	7-7	157.75	172.33	164.00	16
Long Island	21-10	0-2	0-2	0-4	1-7	169.75	218.33	190.57	16
UMBC	18-8	0-0	0-2	0-4	0-5	175.25	213.67	191.71	16
Bethune Cookman	16-13	0-4	0-7	0-8	1-8	194.00	227.67	208.43	16
Howard	15-10	0-1	0-2	1-4	2-4	202.25	198.67	200.71	16
Morehead State	16-12	0-2	0-3	0-5	1-7	207.25	283.33	239.86	16

Monday, February 23, 2026

Bracketology First Edition 2026

After watching the initial top 4 seed reveal and listening to the committee chair, it was apparent to me that they are weighing both the results-based and predictive metrics more than ever. The chair repeatedly spit out the stats from those metrics.

I put the chart below together and will continue to update between now and selection Sunday. This was through games of Sunday February 22.

At the right of the chart I have put my projected seed based on this data and how this data was applied in 2025.

	Record	Q1A	Q1	Q1+Q2	Q1+Q2+Q3	Results-Based Metrics (Avg)	Predictive Metrics (Avg)	All 7 Metrics (Avg)	Projected Seed
Michigan	25-2	5-1	10-1	19-2	23-2	1.00	1.33	1.14	1
Duke	25-2	7-2	12-2	16-2	17-2	2.25	2.00	2.14	1
Arizona	25-2	5-2	11-2	16-2	19-2	2.75	2.67	2.71	1
Houston	23-4	3-4	7-4	15-4	17-4	6.50	4.67	5.71	2
Purdue	22-5	5-4	8-5	12-5	19-5	5.50	7.67	6.43	2
Illinois	22-6	6-4	7-5	13-6	17-6	8.25	5.33	7.00	2
Florida	21-6	2-3	8-5	15-6	16-6	9.50	5.00	7.57	3
Connecticut	25-3	5-2	7-2	14-2	20-3	5.50	10.33	7.57	1
Iowa State	23-4	3-2	6-4	15-4	16-4	8.50	7.67	8.14	2
Gonzaga	27-2	2-1	6-1	11-1	20-2	11.50	11.00	11.29	3
Nebraska	23-4	4-4	6-4	11-4	17-4	11.25	13.67	12.29	3
Michigan State	22-5	1-4	6-5	12-5	17-5	13.25	13.33	13.29	4
Texas Tech	20-7	3-4	7-7	10-7	17-7	14.75	15.33	15.00	4
Kansas	20-7	5-4	7-6	14-7	16-7	13.00	17.67	15.00	3
Tennessee	20-7	5-5	5-6	11-7	13-7	17.50	13.00	15.57	5
Vanderbilt	21-6	2-3	7-5	13-6	15-6	17.50	13.00	15.57	5
Alabama	20-7	3-5	7-6	14-7	18-7	13.25	18.67	15.57	4
Virginia	24-3	4-0	6-2	12-3	18-3	14.00	19.67	16.43	4
Louisville	20-7	0-6	6-7	10-7	12-7	21.75	13.00	18.00	6
Arkansas	20-7	2-6	6-7	11-7	14-7	19.25	19.67	19.43	5
St. John's	22-5	2-1	3-4	11-4	19-5	20.00	18.67	19.43	5
BYU	20-7	1-6	6-6	12-7	15-7	20.25	21.00	20.57	6
St. Louis	24-2	0-0	2-0	6-2	14-2	25.75	23.33	24.71	7
North Carolina	21-6	3-4	5-6	8-6	16-6	22.00	30.00	25.43	6
Utah State	22-4	0-0	3-3	10-3	18-4	26.50	24.67	25.71	7
NC State	19-8	2-3	5-5	11-7	15-7	29.50	24.33	27.29	7
Wisconsin	19-8	3-5	5-7	10-8	13-8	28.25	28.33	28.29	6
Villanova	21-6	0-4	2-5	9-5	17-6	26.50	31.00	28.43	7
Kentucky	17-10	3-7	5-8	8-10	11-10	29.50	30.67	30.00	8
St. Mary's	24-4	0-3	1-3	7-4	17-4	29.50	30.67	30.00	10
Iowa	19-8	2-6	3-7	8-7	13-8	33.50	29.33	31.71	8
SMU	19-8	1-5	4-6	8-8	12-8	32.75	35.00	33.71	8
Auburn	15-12	2-7	5-10	7-12	9-12	36.00	32.33	34.43	11
Clemson	20-8	0-3	3-5	10-8	13-8	37.00	35.00	36.14	9
Georgia	19-8	1-3	5-6	10-7	10-8	34.00	39.67	36.43	9
Miami FL	21-6	1-4	3-4	9-6	11-6	33.25	41.33	36.71	8
Texas A&M	19-8	3-4	4-5	8-8	11-8	41.75	33.00	38.00	9
Indiana	17-10	1-7	2-10	4-10	10-10	43.00	34.00	39.14	10
Santa Clara	22-6	0-3	1-4	8-5	17-5	42.00	37.33	40.00	11
UCF	19-7	1-3	4-5	9-7	12-7	32.50	51.67	40.71	9
UCLA	18-9	2-7	3-7	7-9	11-9	42.50	39.67	41.29	10
Texas	16-10	1-7	5-7	7-9	9-10	45.00	36.33	41.29	10
Ohio State	17-10	0-7	0-9	7-10	11-10	46.00	36.67	42.00
VCU	21-7	0-4	1-5	5-7	13-7	45.00	45.67	45.29
New Mexico	20-6	0-1	2-4	9-5	11-6	45.00	46.33	45.57	11
Missouri	18-9	2-4	4-5	8-9	10-9	47.50	47.67	47.57	11
San Diego State	17-8	0-3	1-5	6-7	11-8	50.25	47.67	49.14
TCU	17-10	2-5	4-7	7-8	10-9	50.50	53.33	51.71
USC	17-9	1-6	2-6	9-7	14-9	50.00	54.67	52.00	11
Cincinnati	15-12	2-4	2-9	6-11	8-11	59.75	42.00	52.14
Virginia Tech	18-10	2-6	2-8	8-10	11-10	48.25	58.00	52.43
Seton Hall	19-9	0-3	1-4	6-7	13-9	54.00	56.67	55.14
Miami OH	24-0	0-0	0-0	1-0	10-0	37.00	81.33	56.00	11
California	18-8	1-3	4-5	5-8	10-8	51.50	65.33	57.43
West Virginia	16-11	0-4	4-7	6-10	8-11	63.25	56.00	60.14

South Florida									12
Belmont									12
Liberty									12
Yale									12
Stephen F Austin									13
High Point									13
UNC Wilmington									13
Hawaii									13
Cal Baptist									14
North Dakota State									14
Troy									14
Portland State									14
Austin peay									15
East Tenn State									15
Navy									15
Wright State									15
Merrimack									16
Tennessee-Martin									16
Long Island									16
Bethune Cookman									16
Howard									16
UMBC									16

Sunday, March 16, 2025

2025 NCAA Tournament Rant

To begin, this has nothing to do with my Bracketology. I do it for fun and because I absolutely love this tournament. I have for over 40 years. And the tournament will deliver despite what I am about to say. It always does.

Here goes. The inclusion of North Carolina was completely done because the AD was the chair and the good ol' boys hung out with him all week AND because of TV.

Now nobody cares about my opinion. I get that. But the decision was made to include two teams who proved time and again this season they could not win Quad 1 games. Let me break this down real simple with mathematics...

The NCAA Tournament is played on neutral sites. A Quad 1 game on a neutral site is represented by teams in the top 50 in the NET. Other than most of the AQ teams on seed lines 12 to 16, every other team is in the top 50 except for conveniently North Carolina's First Four opponent San Diego State. So when picking an 11 seed, every team they are likely to face is a Quad 1 game in the tournament. Yet a team who was 1-12 in those such games is given another chance because of Brand Name. Xavier was 1-9 in those games. The committee sighted the records when including Quad 2. You know where Quad 2 games are played? The NIT!

West Virginia defeated 3 top teams in the top 12 in NET. Plus one other victory better than UNC'S lone triumph over UCLA. But West Virginia does not draw eyeballs. The Mountaineers played a #62 non-conference schedule which is very good, played in a tougher Big 12 and still only ended up with one more losses than UNC. West Virginia also did not have a Quad 3 loss but guess who did? Yep, the Tar Heels.

This is such a bad inclusion and such a bad look. And don't get me started on predictive metrics. How many games did North Carolina lose when the metrics said they should win? On court results matter. UNC failed this year and that should have been ok.

If you read this, thanks for listening.

Bracketology Final Seed List 2025

1's - Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida

2's - Tennessee, Alabama, Michigan State, St. John's

3's - Texas Tech, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Wisconsin

4's - Iowa State, Maryland, Purdue, Arizona

5's - Clemson, Ole Miss, Oregon, Michigan

6's - BYU, Missouri, Illinois, Louisville

7's - Kansas, UCLA, St. Mary's, Marquette

8's - Memphis, Gonzaga, Mississippi State, Connecticut

9's - Creighton, New Mexico, Georgia, West Virginia

10's - VCU, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Utah State

11's - Colorado State, Baylor (Vanderbilt, San Diego State, Texas, Indiana)

12's - Drake, UC-San Diego, McNeese State, Liberty

13's - Yale, High Point, Akron, Grand Canyon

14's - Lipscomb, UNC-Wilmington, Troy, Montana

15's - Wofford, Robert Morris, Bryant, Omaha

16's - Norfolk State, Mount St. Mary's (SIUE, American, Alabama State, St. Francis (PA))

Saturday, March 15, 2025

Bracketology - March 16, 2025 7 AM CST - potential bracket

South (Atlanta)

1 Auburn

16 American/St. Francis (PA)

(Lexington)

8 Connecticut

9 New Mexico

5 Oregon

12 McNeese State

(Seattle)

4 Arizona

13 High Point

6 Louisville

11 Vanderbilt/Indiana

(Milwaukee)

3 Kentucky

14 Troy

7 Kansas

10 Arkansas

(Cleveland)

2 Michigan State

15 Robert Morris

East (Newark)

1 Duke

16 SIUE/Alabama State

(Raleigh)

8 Mississippi State

9 West Virginia

5 Mississippi

12 UC San Diego

(Seattle)

4 Purdue

13 Akron

6 Illinois

11 San Diego State/Texas

(Wichita)

3 Texas Tech

14 Montana

7 St. Mary's

10 VCU

(Lexington)

2 Tennessee

15 Wofford

Midwest (Indianapolis)

1 Houston

16 Mount St. Mary's

(Wichita)

8 Gonzaga

9 Georgia

5 Clemson

12 Liberty

(Providence)

4 Maryland

13 Yale

6 Missouri

11 Baylor

(Milwaukee)

3 Wisconsin

14 UNC-Wilmington

7 Marquette

10 Utah State

(Cleveland)

2 Alabama

15 Omaha

West (San Francisco)

1 Florida

16 Norfolk State

(Raleigh)

8 Memphis

9 Creighton

5 Michigan

12 Drake

(Denver)

4 Iowa State

13 Grand Canyon

6 BYU

11 Colorado State