Bracketology First Edition 2026

After watching the initial top 4 seed reveal and listening to the committee chair, it was apparent to me that they are weighing both the results-based and predictive metrics more than ever.  The chair repeatedly spit out the stats from those metrics.  

I put the chart below together and will continue to update between now and selection Sunday.  This was through games of Sunday February 22.  

At the right of the chart I have put my projected seed based on this data and how this data was applied in 2025.

	Record	Q1A	Q1	Q1+Q2	Q1+Q2+Q3	Results-Based Metrics (Avg)	Predictive Metrics (Avg)	All 7 Metrics (Avg)	Projected Seed
Michigan	25-2	5-1	10-1	19-2	23-2	1.00	1.33	1.14	1
Duke	25-2	7-2	12-2	16-2	17-2	2.25	2.00	2.14	1
Arizona	25-2	5-2	11-2	16-2	19-2	2.75	2.67	2.71	1
Houston	23-4	3-4	7-4	15-4	17-4	6.50	4.67	5.71	2
Purdue	22-5	5-4	8-5	12-5	19-5	5.50	7.67	6.43	2
Illinois	22-6	6-4	7-5	13-6	17-6	8.25	5.33	7.00	2
Florida	21-6	2-3	8-5	15-6	16-6	9.50	5.00	7.57	3
Connecticut	25-3	5-2	7-2	14-2	20-3	5.50	10.33	7.57	1
Iowa State	23-4	3-2	6-4	15-4	16-4	8.50	7.67	8.14	2
Gonzaga	27-2	2-1	6-1	11-1	20-2	11.50	11.00	11.29	3
Nebraska	23-4	4-4	6-4	11-4	17-4	11.25	13.67	12.29	3
Michigan State	22-5	1-4	6-5	12-5	17-5	13.25	13.33	13.29	4
Texas Tech	20-7	3-4	7-7	10-7	17-7	14.75	15.33	15.00	4
Kansas	20-7	5-4	7-6	14-7	16-7	13.00	17.67	15.00	3
Tennessee	20-7	5-5	5-6	11-7	13-7	17.50	13.00	15.57	5
Vanderbilt	21-6	2-3	7-5	13-6	15-6	17.50	13.00	15.57	5
Alabama	20-7	3-5	7-6	14-7	18-7	13.25	18.67	15.57	4
Virginia	24-3	4-0	6-2	12-3	18-3	14.00	19.67	16.43	4
Louisville	20-7	0-6	6-7	10-7	12-7	21.75	13.00	18.00	6
Arkansas	20-7	2-6	6-7	11-7	14-7	19.25	19.67	19.43	5
St. John's	22-5	2-1	3-4	11-4	19-5	20.00	18.67	19.43	5
BYU	20-7	1-6	6-6	12-7	15-7	20.25	21.00	20.57	6
St. Louis	24-2	0-0	2-0	6-2	14-2	25.75	23.33	24.71	7
North Carolina	21-6	3-4	5-6	8-6	16-6	22.00	30.00	25.43	6
Utah State	22-4	0-0	3-3	10-3	18-4	26.50	24.67	25.71	7
NC State	19-8	2-3	5-5	11-7	15-7	29.50	24.33	27.29	7
Wisconsin	19-8	3-5	5-7	10-8	13-8	28.25	28.33	28.29	6
Villanova	21-6	0-4	2-5	9-5	17-6	26.50	31.00	28.43	7
Kentucky	17-10	3-7	5-8	8-10	11-10	29.50	30.67	30.00	8
St. Mary's	24-4	0-3	1-3	7-4	17-4	29.50	30.67	30.00	10
Iowa	19-8	2-6	3-7	8-7	13-8	33.50	29.33	31.71	8
SMU	19-8	1-5	4-6	8-8	12-8	32.75	35.00	33.71	8
Auburn	15-12	2-7	5-10	7-12	9-12	36.00	32.33	34.43	11
Clemson	20-8	0-3	3-5	10-8	13-8	37.00	35.00	36.14	9
Georgia	19-8	1-3	5-6	10-7	10-8	34.00	39.67	36.43	9
Miami FL	21-6	1-4	3-4	9-6	11-6	33.25	41.33	36.71	8
Texas A&M	19-8	3-4	4-5	8-8	11-8	41.75	33.00	38.00	9
Indiana	17-10	1-7	2-10	4-10	10-10	43.00	34.00	39.14	10
Santa Clara	22-6	0-3	1-4	8-5	17-5	42.00	37.33	40.00	11
UCF	19-7	1-3	4-5	9-7	12-7	32.50	51.67	40.71	9
UCLA	18-9	2-7	3-7	7-9	11-9	42.50	39.67	41.29	10
Texas	16-10	1-7	5-7	7-9	9-10	45.00	36.33	41.29	10
Ohio State	17-10	0-7	0-9	7-10	11-10	46.00	36.67	42.00
VCU	21-7	0-4	1-5	5-7	13-7	45.00	45.67	45.29
New Mexico	20-6	0-1	2-4	9-5	11-6	45.00	46.33	45.57	11
Missouri	18-9	2-4	4-5	8-9	10-9	47.50	47.67	47.57	11
San Diego State	17-8	0-3	1-5	6-7	11-8	50.25	47.67	49.14
TCU	17-10	2-5	4-7	7-8	10-9	50.50	53.33	51.71
USC	17-9	1-6	2-6	9-7	14-9	50.00	54.67	52.00	11
Cincinnati	15-12	2-4	2-9	6-11	8-11	59.75	42.00	52.14
Virginia Tech	18-10	2-6	2-8	8-10	11-10	48.25	58.00	52.43
Seton Hall	19-9	0-3	1-4	6-7	13-9	54.00	56.67	55.14
Miami OH	24-0	0-0	0-0	1-0	10-0	37.00	81.33	56.00	11
California	18-8	1-3	4-5	5-8	10-8	51.50	65.33	57.43
West Virginia	16-11	0-4	4-7	6-10	8-11	63.25	56.00	60.14
South Florida									12
Belmont									12
Liberty									12
Yale									12
Stephen F Austin									13
High Point									13
UNC Wilmington									13
Hawaii									13
Cal Baptist									14
North Dakota State									14
Troy									14
Portland State									14
Austin peay									15
East Tenn State									15
Navy									15
Wright State									15
Merrimack									16
Tennessee-Martin									16
Long Island									16
Bethune Cookman									16
Howard									16
UMBC									16

2025 NCAA Tournament Rant

To begin, this has nothing to do with my Bracketology.   I do it for fun and because I absolutely love this tournament.  I have for over 40 years.  And the tournament will deliver despite what I am about to say.  It always does.

Here goes.  The inclusion of North Carolina was completely done because the AD was the chair and the good ol' boys hung out with him all week AND because of TV.

Now nobody cares about my opinion.  I get that.  But the decision was made to include two teams who proved time and again this season they could not win Quad 1 games.  Let me break this down real simple with mathematics...

The NCAA Tournament is played on neutral sites.  A Quad 1 game on a neutral site is represented by teams in the top 50 in the NET.  Other than most of the AQ teams on seed lines 12 to 16, every other team is in the top 50 except for conveniently North Carolina's First Four opponent San Diego State.  So when picking an 11 seed, every team they are likely to face is a Quad 1 game in the tournament.   Yet a team who was 1-12 in those such games is given another chance because of Brand Name.  Xavier was 1-9 in those games.  The committee sighted the records when including Quad 2.  You know where Quad 2 games are played?  The NIT!

West Virginia defeated 3 top teams in the top 12 in NET.  Plus one other victory better than UNC'S lone triumph over UCLA.  But West Virginia does not draw eyeballs.  The Mountaineers played a #62 non-conference schedule which is very good, played in a tougher Big 12 and still only ended up with one more losses than UNC.  West Virginia also did not have a Quad 3 loss but guess who did?  Yep, the Tar Heels.  

This is such a bad inclusion and such a bad look.  And don't get me started on predictive metrics.  How many games did North Carolina lose when the metrics said they should win?  On court results matter.  UNC failed this year and that should have been ok. 

If you read this, thanks for listening. 

Bracketology Final Seed List 2025

1's - Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida

2's - Tennessee, Alabama, Michigan State, St. John's 

3's - Texas Tech, Kentucky,  Texas A&M, Wisconsin 

4's - Iowa State, Maryland, Purdue, Arizona

5's - Clemson, Ole Miss, Oregon, Michigan 

6's - BYU, Missouri, Illinois, Louisville

7's - Kansas, UCLA, St. Mary's, Marquette

8's - Memphis, Gonzaga, Mississippi State, Connecticut

9's - Creighton, New Mexico, Georgia, West Virginia 

10's - VCU, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Utah State 

11's - Colorado State, Baylor (Vanderbilt, San Diego State, Texas, Indiana)

12's - Drake, UC-San Diego, McNeese State, Liberty

13's - Yale, High Point, Akron, Grand Canyon

14's - Lipscomb, UNC-Wilmington, Troy, Montana

15's - Wofford, Robert Morris, Bryant, Omaha

16's - Norfolk State, Mount St. Mary's (SIUE, American, Alabama State, St. Francis (PA))

Bracketology - March 16, 2025 7 AM CST - potential bracket

South (Atlanta)

1 Auburn

16 American/St. Francis (PA)

(Lexington)

8 Connecticut 

9 New Mexico

5 Oregon 

12 McNeese State

(Seattle)

4 Arizona

13 High Point

6 Louisville 

11 Vanderbilt/Indiana 

(Milwaukee)

3 Kentucky 

14 Troy

7 Kansas

10 Arkansas

(Cleveland)

2 Michigan State 

15 Robert Morris 

East (Newark)

1 Duke

16 SIUE/Alabama State

(Raleigh)

8 Mississippi State 

9 West Virginia 

5 Mississippi 

12 UC San Diego

(Seattle)

4 Purdue 

13 Akron

6 Illinois

11 San Diego State/Texas

(Wichita)

3 Texas Tech

14 Montana

7 St. Mary's 

10 VCU

(Lexington)

2 Tennessee 

15 Wofford 

Midwest (Indianapolis)

1 Houston

16 Mount St. Mary's 

(Wichita)

8 Gonzaga 

9 Georgia 

5 Clemson 

12 Liberty 

(Providence)

4 Maryland 

13 Yale

6 Missouri

11 Baylor

(Milwaukee)

3 Wisconsin 

14 UNC-Wilmington 

7 Marquette 

10 Utah State

(Cleveland)

2 Alabama

15 Omaha

West (San Francisco)

1 Florida 

16 Norfolk State 

(Raleigh)

8 Memphis 

9 Creighton 

5 Michigan 

12 Drake 

(Denver)

4 Iowa State

13 Grand Canyon

6 BYU 

11 Colorado State

(Denver)

3 Texas A&M

14 Lipscomb

7 UCLA 

10 Oklahoma 

(Providence)

2 St. John's 

15 Bryant

Bracketology - March 16, 2025 7 AM CST

Here is where I am at right now.  A few more AQ's left, but otherwise it is coming nicely together.  I think the SEC Tournament Champ will get the last #1.  Memphis and VCU can hold the bubble where it's at, with Indiana being my last team in.

1's - Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida

2's - Tennessee, Alabama, Michigan State, St. John's 

3's - Texas Tech, Kentucky,  Texas A&M, Wisconsin 

4's - Iowa State, Maryland, Purdue, Arizona

5's - Clemson, Ole Miss, Oregon, Michigan 

6's - BYU, Missouri, Illinois, Louisville

7's - Kansas, UCLA, St. Mary's, Marquette

8's - Memphis, Gonzaga, Mississippi State, Connecticut

9's - Creighton, New Mexico, Georgia, West Virginia 

10's - VCU, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Utah State 

11's - Colorado State, Baylor (Vanderbilt, San Diego State, Texas, Indiana)

12's - Drake, UC-San Diego, McNeese State, Liberty

13's - Yale, High Point, Akron, Grand Canyon

14's - Lipscomb, UNC-Wilmington, Troy, Montana

15's - Wofford, Robert Morris, Bryant, Omaha

16's - Norfolk State, Mount St. Mary's (SIUE, American, Alabama State, St. Francis (PA))

Bracketology - March 14, 2025 - Seed Lines

1's - Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida

2's - Alabama, Tennessee, Michigan State, Texas Tech

3's - Kentucky, St. John's, Iowa State, Texas A&M

4's - Maryland, Wisconsin, Purdue, Clemson

5's - Arizona, Ole Miss, Oregon, BYU

6's - Missouri, Michigan, Illinois, Kansas

7's - UCLA, Louisville, St. Mary's, Marquette

8's - Gonzaga, Mississippi State, Memphis, Connecticut

9's - Creighton, New Mexico, Georgia, VCU

10's - Utah State, West Virginia, Vanderbilt, Arkansas

11's - Oklahoma, Baylor (San Diego State, Texas, Indiana, North Carolina)

12's - Drake, UC-San Diego, McNeese State, Yale

13's - Liberty, High Point, Akron, Troy

14's - Lipscomb, UNC-Wilmington, Utah Valley, Wofford

15's - Robert Morris, Bryant, Montana, Omaha

16's - Norfolk State, Quinnipiac (SIUE, American, Alabama State, St. Francis (PA)

Bracketology - Comparison Chart Update Through March 13, 2025

Thursday is moving day.  The committee is knee-deep in it now and the movement will be minimal from here on out.  Here is the updated comparison chart for the at-large pool.  I will follow with my current seed lines in the next post.