Bracketology - March 9, 2026 - The Bracket plus commentary

Below is a bracket put together based on my seeds released last night.  What always seems logical to me is never logical to the committee, so view this under that perspective.

Today is a relatively quiet day, with a few championship games and the WCC semifinals headlining the action.  If you aren't rooting for Georgia Southern to complete the 6 day gauntlet in the Sun Belt, you have to be a Troy alum.  Tomorrow will start right into major conference tournaments, with Wednesday really picking up with bubble teams and then Thursday and Friday are wall-to-wall basketball days made for a college basketball junkie.

Here is where I am at and what I am monitoring as we head into this week:

• I would be shocked if these aren't the four #1 seeds when announced on Sunday.  Florida had clearly moved ahead of Connecticut already in most metrics and eye-test.  The bad home loss to Marquette was the "reason" needed to move Florida ahead on the seed lines.  I am also not sure Connecticut is even the team that could steal that from Florida.  I would give Houston a better shot if they run through the Big 12 tournament and Florida loses a quarterfinal or maybe a semifinal in the SEC.
• I moved Alabama up to the last #3, as their resume and metrics have ascended that last couple weeks. It's close with Gonzaga and I will continue to scrub those teams all week.  Otherwise Kansas winning the Big 12 tournament would warrant consideration for a move to the 3-line.
• Texas Tech may finally be feeling the JT Toppin effect, falling to the #5 line in this bracket.  Vanderbilt had a strong week and surged ahead of the Red Raiders in metrics.  Considering the Toppin injury, this feels like the right move as well.
• The Caleb Wilson injury is giving me a harder time because North Carolina beat Louisville without him.  Louisville just happens to be one of the teams in consideration with North Carolina for a #5 seed.  Wisconsin has a case as well with its high-end wins, it is just tough to overlook the mediocre losses.
• St. Mary's continues to be a difficult team to seed.  Last year, they were 27-5 with 4 Quad 1 wins and received a #7 seed.  Currently at 26-4 with 1 Quad 1 win, it would seem a notch below last year, which is why they come in as a #8 for me.
• This bubble is frustrating and terrible.  I blame the Big East and Mountain West (see yesterday's post).  We are still looking at bid stealers out of the MAC and Mountain West to help harden? the bubble.  Moving VCU in the field makes the Atlantic 10 a 2-bid league and they will not be a 3-bid league.  Otherwise, all these teams need wins.  One team to point out is the late surge from Stanford.  It might be too late but at least they are playing like they want a spot