The Sweet 16

First of all - I offer my apologies to anyone who suffered monetary damages as a result of reading Jabesblog last week. I will get to Mr. Ken Pomeroy in a moment. I will also be making my picks for the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 games. I was so very proud to post the worst bracket I have ever completed on this site last week, that I thought I would give you more predictions. You may want to run to Vegas with the opposite of my picks.

Before my picks, a few things about last weeks blog regarding Ken Pomeroy's efficiency ratings. The first thing I learned, is that all my research was done on efficiency ratings after the previous tournaments had ended and those ratings included tournament games. Since these ratings are fluid, it was not necessarily comparing apples to apples. For example, Texas A&M finished with a higher efficiency rating than Utah State, even though the tournament started the opposite way, because Texas A&M beat Utah State. The same for Washington and Marquette. So the analysis had some faults. OBVIOUSLY.

Despite those faults, let's look at a few of last week's points.

#1 - the Final Four could still very well come from teams ranked in the top 10 in overall efficiency and/or top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The only change is that Baylor has joined the group at #9 overall. So now the Final Four appears to be down to Ohio State, Syracuse/Kansas State, Kentucky/West Virginia, and Duke/Baylor.

#2 - does not occur until the Final Four games, so this could very well happen

#3 - Kentucky is up to #3, but might have a hard time getting to #1 and #4 in offensive efficiency. So Duke would be the national champion.

#4 - this applies to the elite 8 games, so we will see what happens.

#5 - there is no explanation for Kansas being eliminated by Northern Iowa. Therefore this point is no longer valid. Coincidentally, Wisconsin both fell out of the top 6 and Cornell now has a higher offensive efficiency rating. Go figure!!

#6 - ok - because I tallied prior stats post tournament, this one is hard to judge. Just using pre-tournament ratings, picking the higher efficiency team would have yielded you 24 winners and would have only eliminated two teams that made the Sweet 16 in round 1 (Cornell and Washington). Using updated efficiency after round 2, 27 of the 32 teams that won first round games now have higher efficiency ratings. 2 of the 5 who lost are now over-seeded by 4. 29 out of 32, 90.6%. I would have taken the 24, or 25 because Clemson never wins.

#7 - 6 teams over-seeded by 7 - 5 did not make the second weekend. This one seems like a good predictor. Since we now know this is fluid, the teams closer to 7 can play there way off this over-seeding stat. Tennessee won there second round game over an over-seeded Ohio, so they did not ruin this stat yet. They are still over-seeded by 7, but if they beat Ohio State, they will likely finish over-seeded by less than 7, thus removing them from this statistic. Marquette was actually added to this statistic, now over-seeded by 8.

#8 - Utah State is still under-seeded by 18, but might not finish the tourney over 17. They were beat by a higher seeded team who is currently under-seeded by 1. Minnesota is now under-seeded by only 11, but Missouri is by 18 and won their first round game. Washington is now under-seeded by 18.

#9 - Under-Seeded 11's went 2-1 (San Diego State is now properly seeded). Under-seeded 12's went 1-2, Cornell now unded-seeded by 1. Under-seeded 10's went 2-0 and St. Mary's is sitting one spot away from making this 3-0.

#10 - The higher seeded 8/9 or 7/10 team was 6-2 after the Missouri/Clemson flip-flop in ratings. The two missed were a lower-seeded 8 over a 9 (Gonzaga) and a lower-seeded 9 over an 8 (Wake Forest).

So the biggest error in analysis thus far, has been the use of oranges to predict apples. This tournament has been crazy anyway, so it might fall as a 2000-like outlier in the history of tournaments.

So here are the picks:

These have been complicated by 2 key PG injuries, and we all know how important guard play is in this tournament. But, I can no longer pick against Tom Izzo in a tournament (yet), so

Michigan State over Northern Iowa
Ohio State over Tennessee
Syracuse over Butler
Kansas State over Xavier
Kentucky over Cornell
Washington over West Virginia
Duke over Purdue
St. Mary's over Baylor

Ohio State, Syracuse, Kentucky and Duke gather at Lucas Oil Stadium a week from Saturday.

My NCAA Picks

Here are my official picks. It is hard to put a bracket on here, so I will do it in list format.

Midwest First Round Winners
1 Kansas
8 UNLV
4 Maryland
5 Michigan State
11 San Diego State
3 Georgetown
7 Oklahoma State
2 Ohio State

West First Round Winners
1 Syracuse
9 Florida State
4 Vanderbilt
12 UTEP
6 Xavier
3 Pittsburgh
7 Brigham Young
2 Kansas State

East First Round Winners
1 Kentucky
8 Texas
4 Wisconsin
5 Temple
6 Marquette
3 New Mexico
10 Missouri
2 West Virginia

South First Round Winners
1 Duke
9 Louisville
13 Siena
12 Utah State
11 Old Dominion
3 Baylor
10 Saint Mary's
2 Villanova

Sweet Sixteen
1 Kansas
5 Michigan State
3 Georgetown
2 Ohio State
1 Syracuse
12 UTEP
6 Xavier
7 Brigham Young
1 Kentucky
4 Wisconsin
6 Marquette
2 West Virginia
1 Duke
12 Utah State
3 Baylor
10 Saint Mary's

Elite Eight
1 Kansas
2 Ohio State
1 Syracuse
7 Brigham Young
4 Wisconsin
2 West Virginia
1 Duke
3 Baylor

Final Four
1 Kansas
1 Syracuse
4 Wisconsin
1 Duke

Kansas over Duke 77-72

NCAA Bracket Blog

OK - So my first foray into bracketology was only moderately successful - but I had a lot of fun and learned a few things too. I will not even go into how the committee contradicts itself and will not answer any questions directly on any of the selection shows. That is par for the course. Instead, in case any of you were looking for some in-depth analysis on who to and and who not to pick - here goes. (Note: I have not won an office pool since 1994 when UConn beat Duke. Also, in all of the scenarios I am giving below, there are a few outliers, so nothing is fool proof).

I am going to focus my bracket analysis on Ken Pomeroy's efficiency ratings, which have become a fairly accurate predictor of the tournament results. His data goes back to 2004, so I had 6 years to look at. The first stat is the one to pay the most attention to. Ready??

Number 1
22 out of the 24 Final Four Teams was ranked in the overall Top 10 in efficiency. The two outliers were Villanova in 2009 and George Mason in 2006. 21 out of 24 were ranked in the Top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The three outliers were UCLA, LSU, and George Mason, all in 2006, so Villanova last year met this qualification. Therefore, other than George Mason in 2006, 23 of the 24 teams was either Top 10 in overall efficiency or Top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. And George Mason had to beat a UConn team in OT that would have made this 24 for 24.

So - for 2010 - Your top 10 in overall efficiency are 1) Duke, 2) Kansas, 3) Wisconsin, 4) Ohio State, 5)Syracuse, 6)Kentucky, 7) BYU, 8)West Virginia, 9) Kansas State, and 10)Maryland. The first 9 teams also ranked in the Top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. No other teams qualified this year in this category. This would indicate to me to pick your final four from this group. In case you didn't pick up on it, that moves Duke straight to the final four line.

Number 2
Out of the twelve Final Four games, 11 were won by the team with the higher overall efficiency. The outlier was Michigan State over Connecticut in 2009.

Number 3
The champion in each of the last 6 years was the 1 or 2 team in overall efficiency and ranked no lower than 4th in offensive efficiency. Duke and Kansas both meet this criteria. Also, 5 of the 6 years, the championship game was won by the team ranked higher in overall efficiency. UConn over Duke in 2004 (2 over 1) was the exception.

Number 4
18 out of 24 Elite 8 games were won by teams with the higher overall efficiency, and 4 of the 6 that were not were won by a team who met the 25/25 criteria. The two outliers were of course George Mason over UConn in 2006 and LSU over Texas in 2006 (LSU did have a higher defensive efficiency than Texas and was #10 overall. So what does this say - at least three of the four elite eight games will be won by the team with the higher efficiency number (3 times it has been all 4, three times it has been 2 of 4 for what that is worth.

Number 5
Except for #10 overall LSU beating #5 Duke in the Sweet Sixteen in 2006 and #4 Pitt beating #5 Wisconsin in the 2nd Round in 2005, the only time teams in the top 6 in overall efficiency did not make the Elite 8, they were defeated by a team with a better offensive efficiency (Pitt and LSU were top 10 teams with a better defensive efficiency). So, in the top 6, Duke is #1 in offensive efficiency, Kansas is #2, Wisconsin is #13, Ohio State is #7, Syracuse is #9 and Kentucky is #18. Duke, Kansas, Ohio State, Syracuse and Wisconsin can not play a team with a higher offensive efficiency before the elite 8. Kentucky at #18 would play Wisconsin at #13 with Wisconsin beating Kentucky via this stat. So let's consider the exception with defensive efficiency - Wisconsin is #7 and Kentucky is #10. Therefore Kentucky does not win the exception either. (As a Bleeding Red Badger fan, I know this will jinx Wisconsin, but it is reason for optimism). None of the other top 6 can play a top 10 team superior in defensive efficiency before the Elite 8 either.

Number 6
OK- How about some first round stats - these have more exceptions than what I gave you above - Are you liking this? Anyway, Number 6...

158 out of 192 First Round games were won by the team with the higher overall efficiency (82.3%) or 26.3 games a year. In 15 of the 34 games won by the lower efficiency team, the higher efficiency team was over-seeded by at least 4 (Over-Seeded - Efficiency rating - (Seed*4)). So now we are up to 173 out of 192 games, or 90.1% of First Round games are won by the team with the higher efficiency or lost by a team over-seeded by at least 4. Please note here, there have been many first round games won by an over-seeded team (see more on this below), but if you are picking against a higher efficiency team, it would be wise if they were over-seeded.

Number 7
More on over-seeded teams (Efficiency rating - (Seed*4)). There have been 33 teams over-seeded by at least 7 on the 1 thru 6 lines. 22 of those 33 won first round games, 18 of those over fellow over-seeded teams. But only 8 won second round games and all 8 beat over-seeded teams in the second round. None won a Sweet 16 game. So who is over-seeded by 7 on the 1 thru 6 lines? New Mexico is over-seeded by 25, Vanderbilt by 20, Pittsburgh by 18, Notre Dame by 14, Tennessee by 11 and Villanova by 7. New Mexico has a ceiling of Sweet 16 if they play Montana/Marquette, but if Washington beats Marquette, Washington is under-seeded. Vanderbilt would be Sweet 16 if they play Murray State/Butler, but would lose to under-seeded UTEP. Pittsburgh will not play an over-seeded team in the 2nd round in either circumstance. No 2nd weekend for them. If Notre Dame beats ODU (more on this later), they would face a properly seeded Baylor squad. Same for Tennessee against Georgetown. Villanova would get an under-seeded Richmond or St. Mary's before bowing out. This does not mean New Mexico would automatically beat Marquette, Vandy beat Butler, or Villanova their 2nd round opponent. Teams over seeded by 7 have lost to a handful of fellow over-seeded teams. This item only provides a maximum of the Sweet 16 for 3 of these teams and 2nd round for the other 3.

Number 8
6 out of the 7 teams under-seeded by at least 17 won their first round game, 4 out of 7 won 2 games. Utah State is under-seeded by 25 this year. 8 out of 10 teams under-seeded by at least 15 won first round games, 5 out of 10 won 2 games (and one of the two who lost was beaten by a higher seeded team who was also under-seeded). Missouri and Minnesota are both under-seeded by 16, but Missouri plays Clemson who is a higher ranked under-seeded team and Minnesota plays Xavier who is a higher ranked properly-seeded team. Proceed with caution. (Ok - Missouri plays Clemson and Oliver Purnell is 0-6 in Tourney games, so either play the streak or law of averages).

Number 9
Under-seeded 11's are 2-0 (see Old Dominion and San Diego State this year). Under-seeded 12's are just 4-4, but have won 3 in a row (hello UTEP and Utah State this year). Under-seeded 10's are also just 4-4 (Georgia Tech and Missouri).

Number 10
The team with the higher efficiency has won 35 out of 48 8/9 and 7/10 games. So there will likely be two instances of the higher efficiency team winning this year. Missouri over Clemson would seem to be 1. Wake over Texas? Louisville over Cal? Richmond over St. Mary's? Oklahoma State over Georgia Tech? Makes these games hard as always. 7 seeds rated 42 or lower are actually 4-2, with the losses coming to #'s20 and 26, but with a win over a 17. ???

I will post my bracket either tomorrow or Thursday morning. Happy bracketing!!

Jabe's Bracket - Final

Updated 4:15 - Illinois replaces Minnesota and a few minor seed changes. Now final.

Here is the final bracket before the real one is revealed. Mississippi State gets in on the eye test over Virginia Tech and Minnesota over Illinois based on the timing of the championship game. I still believe Duke will get the final #1 slot, but West Virginia will join them in that region. I took Villanova over Georgetown for the final #2 slot because the 8th place team in a league should not get a #2 seed. Temple beats Pitt out for the final #3, as a strong resume with both a regular season and tournament championship looks better than a team with neither. I am not sure Wisconsin is a #4 seed, but if nothing else, flip-flop them with Texas A&M. Anyway, here it is - and let the real predictions start this evening....

Jabe's Bracket - Next-to-Last One

Final version tomorrow - things are taking shape pretty well...

Jabe's NCAA Field of 65 - March 12, 2010

Wow - what a Thursday!! I hope the committee did not have seeds set in stone yet. I will take the update in segments today.

The Bubble Watch Segment

The "Bubble" actually seems to be getting clearer, unless we run out of teams. UAB, Memphis, and Arizona State played their way off the Bubble and into the NIT yesterday. San Diego State just barely stayed alive, but may now be on lock status, unless the Bubble shrinks, which I will talk about in a moment. Washington moved within one win of lock status, if not there already. The two spots still currently up for grabs are the ones labeled "Mississippi" and "Rhode Island" on my bracket. Both of those teams will be in action today trying to grab those spots. Also still alive are Illinois, Dayton, St. Louis, and Seton Hall.

There is one big development that might take one spot away from those teams. Conference USA is currently a one bid league. UTEP must win the C-USA tourney for it to stay this way. And what does UTEP have today - a game against the host team - Tulsa.

The other tourney that bears watching is the WAC, where Utah State would make a pretty good case for at-large status. This tournament is in Reno where Nevada lurks as a potential opponent in the finals. Nevada lost only one home game - to Utah State. And first Utah State would have to beat a Lousiana Tech team that beat them by 22 earlier this year.

The Seeding Segment

If anything got jumbled yesterday, it was the seeding. The committee is supposed to consider the entire body of work. In that case, Syracuse is still a #1 seed. Now, if Duke wins the ACC tourney, Syracuse might move out West and Duke to the South. Villanova's loss appears to move them to a #3. I struggled with Pitt, who lost to the hottest thing going yesterday. For now, I am giving Temple the final #3 seed, but they need to win the A-10 tourney to keep it. Georgetown earned a #4 yesterday and it will be tough to move them, although Vandy or Tennessee could change that with an SEC championship. Notre Dame and Marquette are moving their way up the board, while Clemson and Wake Forest are on the way down. And then there is Texas. I think they have to be a 7 now.

Hopefully Friday throws more clarity into things....

Jabe's NCAA Field of 65 - March 11, 2010

Things will get a little more interesting today. With no bids being stolen from Mid-Majors, the final spots are there for the taking for UAB/Memphis, Washington/Arizona State, Dayton/Rhode Island. Mississippi and Illinois need at least one win to enhance their consideration. Georgia Tech is living dangerous as well. Also, with quarterfinals in the Big East and Big 12 and opening round games in the ACC today, seeding shuffles will continue. Missouri and Louisville were the big losers yesterday.