With Conference Tournaments starting today, bubble teams now have two things to worry about. First and foremost, they need to worry about their own performance. Illinois, Dayton and Florida have tough weeks, although each has one game at home that could lift them into the tournament. Teams like Virginia Tech and Rhode Island need to turn things around fast. But the second thing these teams need to worry about are the "Bubble
Shrinkers" - teams currently out of the NCAA field that would add a team to the automatic plus locks and leave one fewer bid available for these marginal at-large teams. Here is a look at the potential "Bubble
Shrinkers":
Horizon League - Butler is a lock for the field and has a bye to the semi-finals and will host every game they play. If Butler should lose to say a Wright State or Wisconsin-Milwaukee, the Horizon becomes a two bid league. Likelihood of this scenario is not high.
Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa has locked up an at-large berth going into what is one of the most underrated conference tournaments each year. With the rest of the teams, Wichita State, Illinois State, Creighton, etc. needing to win the tournament to make the
NCAA's, the stakes are high. The regular season champ rarely wins this tourney, and my gut says that doesn't change this year as Illinois State or Wichita State will shrink the bubble by 1.
WAC - Same drill as above for WAC champ Utah State. I think they have done enough to earn at-large consideration, but they are no certain lock as Butler and Northern Iowa should they slip up. New Mexico State and Louisiana Tech provide the main competition.
PAC-10 - Say what?? Yes, Cal is the only PAC-10 team with an at-large resume worth considering, and they have the craziest one going 0-4 against
RPI top 50, but playing only one team outside the top 200. If Cal loses the PAC-10 tourney, which is fairly likely, the PAC-10 might get their second bid and make another team sweat it out Sunday.
Atlantic 10 - A few weeks ago, the A-10 was headed to 6 bids. Now the locks are down to 3, with Rhode Island and Dayton squarely on the bubble. If either of these two, or Charlotte or St. Louis wins the A-10 tourney, the league will lock-up either 4 or 5 bids.
Conference USA -
UTEP and
UAB appear to have done enough if they close the regular season without a major hiccup, although they play each other one last time. Memphis, Marshall, or Tulsa could make the committee consider this a 3 bid league if it wins the C-USA tourney.
BCS Leagues - There is always the chance that a team makes the improbable run in one of the other five
BCS conferences and shrinks the bubble. Georgia did this a few years ago in the SEC. Who could do it this year? North Carolina? Minnesota? Mississippi? Arkansas?
Notre Dame? Cincinnati? Seton Hall? I don't see it happening, but nothing is impossible.
The Long-Shots - I don't believe
Siena and Old Dominion have done enough to lock-up an at-large bid. The committee might disagree, and therefore these could become two bid leagues. Finally, if Portland or Loyola
Marymount wins the West Coast tourney, I think St. Mary's will be NIT bound and this will not effect the bubble.
Prediction: Right now, my 65 team field has been predicated on zero "Bubble
Shrinkers". I think there will be at least two, maybe a third, making my last two or three in yesterday, as the first two or three out.
