NCAA Field of 68 - March 5, 2012 Edition

• Kentucky overall #1, followed by Syracuse, Kansas and North Carolina
• I have done my best to balance the Top 4 in each region and consider distance.  This is not easy, as the West can not always get the 4th team on a line.
• Last 5 In - BYU, Xavier, Northwestern, Iona, and Tennessee
• Next 6 (no order) - Texas, Miami, Seton Hall, Oregon, St. Joseph's, Mississippi
• One week to go and to say the bottom of the bracket is unsettled is an understatment.  First, prohibitive favorites Iona and Middle Tennessee lost in their conference tournaments.  Second, the bubble teams continue to do little to separate themsleves, leading to an interesting conference tournament week.  I have left Iona in as of today, but with other teams having the chance to surpass them this week, their stay might be short-lived.
• One First Four game moved to 11 line to accomodate travel, Northwestern and BYU moved to 12 line, but ahead of these teams in my S-curve

Midwest Regional
Omaha
(1)  Kansas (16) Texas-Arlington
(8)  St. Mary's vs (9) Virginia
Albuquerque
(5)  Louisville vs (12) Washington
(4)  Wisconsin vs (13)  Oral Roberts
Columbus
(6)  Florida vs (11) California
(3)  Marquette vs (14)  Davidson
Columbus
(7)  Creighton vs (10)  Colorado State
(2)  Michigan State vs (15)  Bucknell

South Regional
Louisville
(1)  Kentucky vs (16)  Mississippi Valley State/UNC-Asheville
(8)  Memphis vs (9)  Connecticut
Portland
(5)  UNLV vs (12) Northwestern
(4)  Temple vs (13)  Long Beach State
Nashville
(6)  Notre Dame vs (11)  Mississippi State
(3)  Michigan vs (14)  Akron
Greensboro
(7)  Kansas State vs (10) Harvard
(2)  Duke vs (15) Fairfield

West Regional
Greensboro
(1)  North Carolina vs (16)  Stony Brook/Savannah State
(8)  Alabama vs (9)  St. Louis
Nashville
(5)  Wichita State vs (12)  Iona/Tennessee
(4)  Georgetown vs (13)  VCU
Albuquerque
(6)  San Diego State vs (11)  Southern Miss
(3)  Baylor vs (14)  Denver
Pittsburgh
(7)  Gonzaga  vs (10)  Cincinnati
(2)  Ohio State vs (15)  Detroit

East Regional
Pittsburgh
(1)  Syracuse vs (16)  Long Island
(8)  Iowa State vs (9)  Purdue
Portland
(5)  Florida State vs (12)  BYU
(4)  Vanderbilt vs (13)  Nevada
Louisville
(6)  Murray State vs (11)  South Florida/Xavier
(3)  Indiana vs (14)  Belmont
Omaha
(7)  New Mexico vs (10)  West Virginia
(2)  Missouri vs (15)  Montana

NCAA Field of 68 - March 4, 2012 Edition

• Kentucky overall #1, followed by Syracuse, North Carolina and Kansas
• I have done my best to balance the Top 4 in each region and consider distance.  This is not easy, as the West can not always get the 4th team on a line.
• Last 5 In - BYU, Xavier, Northwestern, Miami, and Tennessee
• Next 5 - Texas, Seton Hall, Oregon, St. Joseph's, Arizona
• Interesting bubble race between Texas, Northwestern, Miami, Xavier, and South Florida.  All teams with similar RPI's, and similarly poor Top 50 and Top 100 records.  None can afford a first round exit in their conference tourney.  I added Tennessee today, at least they are beating people (although they need to win at least one more, but so does everyone I just mentioned).  These teams are also all huge Creighton fans today.
• One First Four game moved to 11 line to accomodate travel, South Florida and BYU moved to 12 line, but ahead of these teams in my S-curve

West Regional
Omaha
(1)  Kansas (16) Texas-Arlington
(8)  Purdue vs (9) California
Portland
(5)  UNLV vs (12) South Florida
(4)  Florida vs (13)  Long Beach State
Louisville
(6)  Murray State vs (11) Xavier/Miami
(3)  Marquette vs (14)  Davidson
Columbus
(7)  Gonzaga vs (10)  Harvard
(2)  Michigan State vs (15)  Bucknell

Midwest Regional
Louisville
(1)  Kentucky vs (16)  Mississippi Valley State/UNC-Asheville
(8)  Kansas State vs (9)  Connecticut
Portland
(5)  Florida State vs (12) Iona
(4)  Temple vs (13)  Middle Tennessee
Columbus
(6)  Louisville vs (11)  Southern Miss
(3)  Indiana vs (14)  Belmont
Omaha
(7)  New Mexico vs (10) Cincinnati
(2)  Missouri vs (15) Montana

South Regional
Greensboro
(1)  North Carolina vs (16)  Stony Brook/Savannah State
(8)  Alabama vs (9)  St. Mary's
Nashville
(5)  Wichita State vs (12)  Northwestern/Tennessee
(4)  Georgetown vs (13)  VCU
Albuquerque
(6)  San Diego State vs (11)  St. Louis
(3)  Baylor vs (14)  Nevada
Louisville
(7)  Memphis  vs (10)  West Virginia
(2)  Ohio State vs (15)  Detroit

East Regional
Pittsburgh
(1)  Syracuse vs (16)  Long Island
(8)  Iowa State vs (9)  Virginia
Albuquerque
(5)  Vanderbilt vs (12)  BYU
(4)  Wisconsin vs (13)  Washington
Nashville
(6)  Notre Dame vs (11)  Mississippi State
(3)  Michigan vs (14)  Oral Roberts
Greensboro
(7)  Creighton vs (10)  Colorado State
(2)  Duke vs (15)  Akron

Bid Stealers and Other Nuggets

Conference tournament play is underway and the first bids will be awarded tomorrow.  We have spent the past few months/weeks playing ping pong with the final at-large teams in the field and analyzing the bubble ad nauseum.  This is the week where those bubble teams start to worry that the bid stealers will be out in full force and lower the number of spots available for the final at-large teams.  Are there really that many bid-stealers out there this year?  Is this the year the bubble remains intact?  Here are the possibilities for bubble shrinkage.

• Ohio Valley Conference - Murray State will be in the Field of 68 even if they lose in the OVC Tourney.  They deserve it this year and are simply playing for seed.  All bubble teams are huge Racer fans today and tomorrow.
• Missouri Valley Conference - Wichita State and Creighton have locked themselves into the field.  That leaves some danger for a bid stealer, a concept the Missouri Valley has been no stranger to over the years.  Watch out for Evansville, Northern Iowa, Illinois State and Missouri State (does anyone remember when they were Southwest Missouri State??).
• Conference USA - Memphis and Southern Miss have arguably inflated RPI's, but both appear safe as Selection Sunday approaches.  Would it be a surprise if UCF, Tulsa, Marshall or even UAB won the C-USA Tourney over these two?  Not at all.  The committee says they award bids to teams and not leagues, so 3 from this desperately mediocre conference is not out of the question, especially if the two so-called locks make at least the semis.
• West Coast Conference - This one teeters on how safe BYU really is, if at all.  This is one where if Loyola Marymount or less likely San Francisco shocked the conference and took the automatic bid, I would guess BYU should start looking into hosting NIT games.
• Mountain West Conference - I am starting to get into longshots for bid stealing now.  This would require both a good performance from Colorado State, but ultimately Wyoming or TCU would have to win the tournament.  Plus UNLV plays this one at home, so are any of these teams really going to get through a UNLV/New Mexico/San Diego State gauntlet?  This is really only a bid stealer if you feel Colorado State is not in.
• Ivy League - Could Harvard make it with 5 losses?  They have a pretty clean profile, including more Top 100 wins than usual.  They would be in the discussion at a minimum.
• Atlantic 10 - Conventional wisdom says at least 3 teams will get in from the A-10, but if a school other than Temple or St. Louis wins the tourney, that will be almost a certainty.
• Sun Belt and Colonial - Middle Tennesse, Drexel and VCU all have had very good seasons and currently sit at 5 or 6 losses.  All three lack the number of Top 50 and 100 wins typical of an at-large team.  Some will argue their inclusion over a 13 loss UConn.  Unless the committee changes their philosophy, I suggest all 3 win their Conference Tourney (and I know only two can).

A few other thoughts.

• Is Tennessee this years USC, a team not on the radar until the last week?  If Tennessee beats Vanderbilt at home this weekend and follows up with another quality win in the SEC tournament, their profile will be worth considering.  They currently sit at 80 in the RPI, but that number would be sure to rise in this scenario, just how far I don't know.  Vandy would be a 4th Top 50 win, joining two over Florida and one over Connecticut.  The SEC tournament win would need to be at least a top 100 win, either say one of the Mississippi schools or even better, Alabama.  This all goes out the window with a loss to Vandy, but keep an eye on this one.
• The Big Ten is not guaranteed a 1-seed.  I keep hearing the committee will reward the #1 conference with a 1-seed.  The committee looks at teams, not conferences.  If Kansas and either Duke or North Carolina wins out, I think the Big Ten will be off the 1-line.  My opinion, but there is nothing saying a team from the #1 RPI conference has to be a 1 seed.  Its #1 because of its depth and they just happened to beat each other up this year.

2011-12 NCAA Tournament Tracker (in progress)

Here is one of many tools I will use to track the world of College Basketball in their four month pursuit of the Field of 68.  This one is simple.  I have listed out roughly 100 teams that right now I see having a shot at an at-large berth or having a resume that would consider them a quality win.  This schedule will list out the wins against teams that are also on this schedule, which should equate closely to Top 100 RPI wins.  It is simply a way to assess quality wins.  I will also note whether the game was at home (H), away (A) or neutral (N).  The tracker will be flexible with additions and subtractions for surprise over and under achievers.  Please note:  The second record shown is only against teams on this list.

Remaining This Week/Next Week (26)
Friday(1):  Akron at Kent State
Saturday(18):  West Virginia at South Florida, St. Louis at Duquesne, Pittsburgh at Connecticut, Oklahoma State at Kansas State, Washington at UCLA, St. Bonaventure at LaSalle, Georgetown at Marquette, Cincinnati at Villanova, Southern Miss at Marshall, Northwestern at Iowa, Colorado at Oregon State, Alabama at Mississippi, Louisville at Syracuse, Arkansas at Mississippi State, North Carolina at Duke, Baylor at Iowa State, Texas at Kansas, Wyoming at UNLV
Sunday(7):  Kentucky at Florida, Illinois at Wisconsin, Virginia at Maryland, Ohio State at Michigan State, California at Stanford, Purdue at Indiana, NC State at Virginia Tech
Plus Conference Tourney action this week and next week

ACC (8)
North Carolina (26-4, 13-4) - Michigan State(N), Wisconsin(H), Long Beach State(H), Texas(H), Miami, FL(H), Virginia Tech(A), NC State(H), Maryland(A), Virginia(H), Miami, FL(A), NC State(A), Virginia(A), Maryland(H)
Duke (26-4, 15-4) - Belmont(H), Michigan State(N), Davidson(H), Michigan(N), Kansas(N), Washington(N), Colorado State(H), Virginia(H), Maryland(A), Virginia Tech(A), North Carolina(A), Maryland(H), NC State(H), Florida State(A), Virginia Tech(H)
Virginia (21-8, 9-6) - Michigan(H), Drexel(N), George Mason(H), Oregon(A), LSU(A), Miami, FL(H), NC State(A), Maryland (H), Virginia Tech(A)
Florida State (20-9, 11-6) - Central Florida(H), Massachusetts(N), Virginia Tech(A), North Carolina(H), Maryland(H), Duke(A), Virginia(H), Miami, FL(H), Virginia Tech(H), NC State(A), Virginia(A)
Virginia Tech (15-15, 4-12) - Oklahoma State(N), St. Bonaventure(H), Oklahoma State(A), Virginia(A)
North Carolina State (19-11, 5-9) - Texas(N), St. Bonaventure(A), Maryland(H), Miami, FL(A), Miami, FL(H)
Maryland (16-13, 4-12) - Notre Dame(H), Colorado(A), Virginia Tech(H), Miami, FL(H)
Miami (17-11, 5-11) - Massachusetts(H), Maryland(H), Duke(A), Virginia Tech(H), Florida State(H)

Big 12 (8)
Baylor (25-5, 14-5) - San Diego State(H), Northwestern(A), BYU(A), St. Mary's(N), West Virginia(N), Mississippi State(N), Kansas State(A), Oklahoma State(H), Oklahoma(A), Texas(H), Oklahoma State(A), Iowa State(H), Texas(A), Oklahoma(H)
Missouri (26-4, 14-4) - Notre Dame (N), California(N), Villanova(N), Illinois(H), Oklahoma(H), Iowa State(A), Texas(H), Baylor(A), Texas(A), Kansas(H), Oklahoma(A), Baylor(H), Oklahoma State(H), Iowa State(H)
Kansas (25-5, 16-5) - Georgetown(N), UCLA(N), Long Beach State(H), South Florida(H), Ohio State(H), Kansas State(H), Oklahoma(A), Iowa State(H), Baylor(H), Texas(A), Oklahoma(H), Baylor(A), Oklahoma State(H), Kansas State(A), Missouri(H), Oklahoma State(A)
Texas (19-11, 7-11) - UCLA(A), Temple(H), Oklahoma State(H), Iowa State(H), Kansas State(H), Oklahoma(A), Oklahoma(H)
Kansas State (20-9, 8-9) - Virginia Tech(A), Alabama(H), Long Beach State(N), Missouri(H), Texas(H), Oklahoma State(H), Baylor(A), Missouri(A)
Oklahoma (14-15, 5-13) - Oral Roberts(H), Arkansas(H), Kansas State(H), Kansas State(A), Oklahoma State(H)
Iowa State (21-9, 8-8) - Texas(H), Iowa(H), Oklahoma State(H), Kansas(H), Kansas State(H), Oklahoma(A), Oklahoma(H), Kansas State(A)
Oklahoma State (14-16, 5-15) - Missouri State(A), Oklahoma(H), Missouri(H), Iowa State(H), Texas(H)

Big East (12)
Syracuse (29-1, 17-1) - Stanford(N), Virginia Tech(N), Florida(H), Bucknell(H), Marshall(H), NC State(A), Seton Hall(H), Marquette(H), Villanova(A), Pittsburgh(H), Cincinnati(A), West Virginia(H), Georgetown(H), Connecticut(H), Louisville(A), South Florida(H), Connecticut(A)
Connecticut (17-12, 9-9) - Florida State(N), Wagner(H), Arkansas(H), Harvard(H), West Virginia(H), South Florida(A), Notre Dame(A), Seton Hall(H), Villanova(A)
Marquette (24-6, 12-6) - Mississippi(N), Wisconsin(A), Washington(N), Villanova(H), Pittsburgh(H), Louisville(H), South Florida(H), Villanova(A), Seton Hall(H), Cincinnati(H), Connecticut(A), West Virginia(A)
Georgetown (22-6, 9-6) - Memphis(N), Alabama(A), Memphis(H), Louisville(A), Marquette(H), Connecticut(H), South Florida(H), Villanova(H), Notre Dame(H)
West Virginia (18-12, 10-11) - Akron(H), Oral Roberts(H), Kansas State(A), Miami,FL(H), Missouri State(N), Villanova(H), Georgetown(H), Marshall(H), Cincinnati(H), Pittsburgh(A)
Seton Hall (19-10, 7-9) - VCU(H), St. Joseph's(A), Dayton(A), West Virginia(H), Connecticut(H), Pittsburgh(H), Georgetown(H)
Louisville (22-8, 10-7) - Long Beach State(H), Vanderbilt(H), Ohio(H), Memphis(H), Pittsburgh(A), Villanova(H), Seton Hall(A), Connecticut(H), West Virginia(A), Pittsburgh(H)
Cincinnati (21-9, 9-6) - Oklahoma(H), Pittsburgh(A), Notre Dame(H), Georgetown(A), Villanova(H), Connecticut(A), Seton Hall(H), Louisville(H), Marquette(H)
Notre Dame (20-10, 10-7) - South Florida(H), Pittsburgh(H), Louisville(A), Syracuse(H), Seton Hall(A), Connecticut(A), Marquette(H), West Virginia(A), Villanova(A), West Virginia(H)
Pittsburgh (16-14, 6-12) - Oklahoma State(N), Duquesne(N), LaSalle(H), Georgetown(H), West Virginia(A), Villanova(H)
Villanova (12-17, 2-16) - LaSalle(H), Seton Hall(H)
South Florida (19-11, 8-8) - Cleveland State(H), Seton Hall(H), Villanova(A), Pittsburgh(H), Villanova(H), Pittsburgh(A), Cincinnati(H), Louisville(A)

Big Ten (10)
Ohio State (24-6, 11-6) - Florida(H), Duke(H), Northwestern(H), Iowa(A), Indiana(H), Michigan(H), Wisconsin(A), Purdue(H), Minnesota(A), Illinois(H), Northwestern(A)
Michigan State (24-6, 12-6) - Florida State(H), Gonzaga(A), Indiana(H), Wisconsin(A), Iowa(H), Purdue(H), Minnesota(H), Michigan(H), Ohio State(A), Wisconsin(H), Purdue(A), Minnesota(A)
Indiana (23-7, 11-6) - NC State(A), Kentucky(H), Notre Dame(A), Ohio State(H), Michigan(H), Iowa(H), Purdue(A), Illinois(H), Northwestern(H), Minnesota(A), Michigan State(H)
llinois (17-13, 8-11) - Maryland(A), Gonzaga(H), St. Bonaventure(H), Minnesota(H), Northwestern(A), Ohio State(H), Michigan State(H), Iowa(H)
Wisconsin (22-8, 9-8) - BYU(N), UNLV(H), Purdue(A), Northwestern(H), Illinois(A), Indiana(H), Minnesota(A), Ohio State(A), Minnesota(H)
Purdue (20-10, 11-8) - Iona(N), Temple(N), MiamiFL(H), Illinois(H), Iowa(A), Minnesota(A), Iowa(H), Northwestern(A), Northwestern(H), Illinois(A), Michigan(A)
Michigan (22-8, 13-8) - Memphis(N), UCLA(N), Iowa State(H), Minnesota(H), Wisconsin(H), Northwestern(H), Michigan State(H), Purdue(A), Indiana(H), Illinois(H), Ohio State(H), Northwestern(A), Illinois(A)
Northwestern (17-12, 6-12) - LSU(H), Seton Hall(A), Michigan State(H), Illinois(A), Iowa(H), Minnesota(H)
Minnesota (17-13, 6-13) - South Dakota State(H), Bucknell(H), Virginia Tech(H), Indiana(A), Northwestern(H), Illinois(H)
Iowa (16-14, 6-10) - Wisconsin(A), Minnesota(A), Michigan(H), Minnesota(H), Indiana(H), Wisconsin(H)

SEC (8)
Kentucky (29-1, 11-1) - Kansas(N), North Carolina(H), Louisville(H), Arkansas(H), Alabama(H), LSU(A), Florida(H), Vanderbilt(A), Mississippi(H), Mississippi State(A), Vanderbilt(H)
Vanderbilt (21-9, 11-8) - Oregon(H), NC State(N), Bucknell(H), Davidson(A), Oregon State(N), Marquette(A), Alabama(A), Middle Tennessee(H), LSU(H), Mississippi(A), Florida(H)
Florida (22-8, 8-4) - Arizona(H), Florida State(H), LSU(H), Mississippi(A), Mississippi State(H), Vanderbilt(H), Alabama(A), Arkansas(A)
Alabama (20-9, 10-8) - Maryland(N), Wichita State(N), Purdue(N), VCU(H), Oklahoma State(H), LSU(H), Arkansas(H), Mississippi(H), Arkansas(A), Mississippi State(H)
Mississippi State (20-10, 6-8) - Arizona(N), West Virginia(H), Alabama(H), Vanderbilt(A), LSU(H), Mississippi(H)
Mississippi (17-12, 5-10) - MiamiFL(H), Arkansas(H), Mississippi State(H), LSU(H), Arkansas(A)
LSU (17-12, 5-9) - Marquette(H), Mississippi(H), Arkansas(H), Alabama(H), Mississippi State(H)
Arkansas (18-12, 5-9) - Charlotte(H), Mississippi State(H), LSU(H), Michigan(H), Vanderbilt(H)

PAC-12 (8)
California (23-7, 10-6) - Denver(H), Weber State(H), UCLA(H), Oregon(A), Colorado(H), Washington(A), Stanford(H), UCLA(A), Oregon(H), Oregon State(H)
Stanford (19-10, 8-7) - Oklahoma State(N), NC State(H), Colorado State(H), UCLA(H), Oregon State(A), Colorado(H), Oregon State(H), Colorado(A)
Arizona (21-9, 7-9) - New Mexico State(A), Duquesne(H), Oregon State(H), California(A), Stanford(A), Colorado(H), UCLA(H)
Washington (21-8, 7-8) - Oregon State(H), Oregon(H), Stanford(H), Arizona(A), UCLA(H), Oregon State(A), Arizona(H)
Oregon (21-8, 7-8) - Stanford(H), Arizona(A), UCLA(H), Washington(H), Stanford(A), Oregon State(A), Colorado(H)
UCLA (17-13, 3-11) - Arizona(H), Colorado(H), Stanford(H)
Colorado (19-10, 5-10) - Washington(H), Arizona(H), Oregon State(H), Oregon(H), California(H)
Oregon State (16-13, 4-9) - Texas(N), California(H), UCLA(H), Oregon(A)

Atlantic 10 (9)
Xavier (18-11, 7-10) - Vanderbilt(A), Purdue(H), Cincinnati(H), St. Bonaventure(H), Duquesne(H), St. Joseph's(H), Dayton(H)
Temple (23-6, 13-4) - Wichita State(N), Buffalo(H), Villanova(H), Duke(H), St. Louis(A), LaSalle(H), Maryland(H), St. Joseph's(H), Xavier(H), St. Bonaventure(A), Duquesne(H), LaSalle(A), Massachusetts(H)
St. Louis (23-6, 10-4) - Washington(H), Villanova(N), Oklahoma(N), Xavier(A), Duquesne(H), St. Bonaventure(H), Dayton(H), St. Joseph's(A), LaSalle(A)
Dayton (18-11, 9-8) - Minnesota(N), Alabama(H), Mississippi(H), St. Louis(H), LaSalle(H), Temple(A), Xavier(H), Duquesne(A), Massachusetts(H)
St. Joseph's (19-12, 8-8) - Creighton(H), Drexel(H), Villanova(H), Duquesne(A), Dayton(H), LaSalle(H), Massachusetts(H), Temple(H)
Massachusetts (19-10, 5-8) - Davidson(H), St. Joseph's(H), St. Louis(H), St. Bonaventure(H), Xavier(H)
LaSalle (19-11, 5-7) - Bucknell(H), Xavier(H), Duquesne(A), Massachusetts(H), Massachusetts(A)
St. Bonaventure (17-10, 4-9) - Buffalo(A), Dayton(H), Duquesne(H), St. Joseph's(H)
Duquesne (16-13, 5-9) - Akron(N), Massachusetts(H), Dayton(A), St. Bonaventure(H), George Mason(A)

Colonial (3)
VCU (25-6, 4-4) - Akron(A), South Florida(H), Northern Iowa(H), George Mason(H)
George Mason (23-8, 2-4) - Bucknell(H), VCU(H)
Drexel (25-5, 3-2) - VCU(H), George Mason(H), Cleveland State(A)

Conference USA (4)
Memphis (22-8, 7-7) - Belmont(H), Miami, FL(A), Southern Miss(H), Marshall(H), Xavier(H), Marshall(A), Central Florida(H)
Marshall (17-12, 4-9) - Cincinnati(A), Iona(H), Belmont(H), Central Florida(H)
Central Florida (20-9, 3-6) - Connecticut(N), Memphis(H), Marshall(H)
Southern Miss (24-6, 9-3) - New Mexico State(H), New Mexico State(A), South Florida(H), Colorado State(A), Mississippi(H), Marshall(H), Central Florida(A), Memphis(H), Central Florida(H)

WCC (3)
Gonzaga (24-5, 6-4) - Notre Dame(H), Oral Roberts(H), Arizona(H), Xavier(A), St. Mary's(H), BYU(H)
St. Mary's (25-5, 6-4) - Northern Iowa(H), Weber State(H), Missouri State(N), BYU(H), Gonzaga(H), BYU(A)
BYU (24-7, 6-5) - Oregon(H), Buffalo(H), Nevada(N), Weber State(H), Virginia Tech(A), Gonzaga(H)

Missouri Valley (4)
Creighton (25-5, 7-4) - San Diego State(A), Iowa(H), Northwestern(H), Wichita State(A), Northern Iowa(H), Missouri State(A), Long Beach State(H)
Northern Iowa (19-12, 5-7) - Iowa(H), Iowa State(A), Colorado State(H), Missouri State(H), Creighton(H)
Wichita State (26-4, 8-3) - Colorado(A), UNLV(H), Northern Iowa(A), Missouri State(A), Northern Iowa(H), Creighton(A), Missouri State(H), Davidson(A)
Missouri State (16-15, 3-9) - Nevada(A), Creighton(A), Northern Iowa(H)

Mountain West (5)
UNLV (24-7, 7-6) - North Carolina(N), Nevada(H), Illinois(A), California(H), New Mexico(H), Colorado State(H), San Diego State(H)
San Diego State (23-6, 8-5) - Long Beach State(H), Arizona(A), California(H), UNLV(H), New Mexico(A), Wyoming(A), Wyoming(H), Colorado State(H)
New Mexico (23-6, 9-4) - Missouri State(H), Oklahoma State(A), New Mexico State(A), St. Louis(H), Wyoming(A), Colorado State(H), Wyoming(H), San Diego State(A), UNLV(H)
Colorado State (18-10, 6-8) - Colorado(H), Denver(H), San Diego State(H), Wyoming(H), New Mexico(H), UNLV(H)
Wyoming (20-9, 3-5) - Colorado State(H), Colorado(A), UNLV(H)

MAC (4)
Akron (20-10, 4-9) - Mississippi State(A), Marshall(A), Ohio(H), Kent State(H)
Kent State (20-9, 3-4) - West Virginia(A), Buffalo(H), Ohio(H)
Ohio (23-7, 6-3) - Marshall(A), Northern Iowa(A), Buffalo(H), Kent State(H), Buffalo(A), Akron(H)
Buffalo (18-9, 4-6) - Dayton(A), Akron(H), Kent State(H), Akron(A)

Sun Belt (2)
Middle Tennesee (25-5, 4-3) - UCLA(A), Akron(H), Belmont(H), Mississippi(H)
Denver (21-8, 4-3) - St. Mary's(H), Southern Miss(H), Wyoming(H), Middle Tennessee(H)

WAC (2)
Nevada (24-5, 3-4) - Washington(H), New Mexico State(A), New Mexico State(H)
New Mexico State (22-9, 1-6) - New Mexico(A)

Summit (2)
Oral Roberts (26-5, 4-4) - Missouri State(H), South Dakota State(H), Xavier(A), Akron(H)
South Dakota State (24-7, 2-2) - Washington(A), Oral Roberts(H)

Other Quality Teams (10)
Harvard (24-4, 3-1) - Florida State(N), Central Florida(N), St. Joseph's(H)
Murray State (28-1, 4-0) - Dayton(H), Memphis(A), Southern Miss(H), St. Mary's(H)
Iona (24-6, 4-2) - Maryland(N), St. Joseph's(A), Denver(A), Nevada(H)
Long Beach State (22-7, 2-6) - Pittsburgh(A), Xavier(N)
Belmont (24-7, 2-4) - Middle Tennessee(A), Marshall(H)
Weber State (23-5, 0-3)
Wagner (25-5, 1-1) - Pittsburgh(A)
Davidson (22-7, 1-4) - Kansas(A)
Bucknell (23-8, 0-5) -
Cleveland State (22-9, 4-2) - Vanderbilt(A), St. Bonaventure(H), Kent State(A), Akron(H)

NCAA Field of 68 - March 1, 2012 Edition

• Kentucky overall #1, followed by Syracuse, Duke and Kansas
• I have done my best to balance the Top 4 in each region and consider distance.  This is not easy, as the West can not always get the 4th team on a line.
• Last 4 In - BYU, Texas, Northwestern, Xavier
• Next 6 - Whoever nets quality wins in the next 10 days (see South Florida, Cincinnati and Colorado State for examples)
• One First Four game moved to 11 line to accomodate travel, South Florida and Seton Hall moved to 12 line, but ahead of these teams in my S-curve
• I am now accomodating 10 Big East teams which I did not see coming.
• I decided to go into the prognostication business and have moved VCU in my field, but as Colonial Tourney champ over Drexel.  Just trying to liven the bottom of the bracket up

West Regional
Omaha
(1)  Kansas (16) Texas-Arlington
(8)  New Mexico vs (9) California
Albuquerque
(5)  Florida vs (12) Seton Hall
(4)  Wichita State vs (13)  Middle Tennessee
Louisville
(6)  Florida State vs (11) BYU/Northwestern
(3)  Marquette vs (14)  Davidson
Columbus
(7)  Kansas State vs (10)  St. Louis
(2)  Michigan State vs (15)  Valparaiso

Midwest Regional
Louisville
(1)  Kentucky vs (16)  Mississippi Valley State/UNC-Asheville
(8)  Memphis vs (9)  St. Mary's
Portland
(5)  Temple vs (12) South Florida
(4)  Wisconsin vs (13)  Washington
Albuquerque
(6)  San Diego State vs (11)  West Virginia
(3)  Baylor vs (14)  Nevada
Pittsburgh
(7)  Notre Dame vs (10) Harvard
(2)  Ohio State vs (15) Bucknell

South Regional
Greensboro
(1)  Duke vs (16)  Long Island
(8)  Alabama vs (9)  Southern Miss
Nashville
(5)  Louisville vs (12)  Texas/Xavier
(4)  Michigan vs (13)  VCU
Columbus
(6)  Gonzaga vs (11)  Colorado State
(3)  Georgetown vs (14)  Belmont
Omaha
(7)  Purdue  vs (10)  Cincinnati
(2)  Missouri vs (15)  Montana

East Regional
Pittsburgh
(1)  Syracuse vs (16)  Stony Brook/Savannah State
(8)  Virginia vs (9)  Iowa State
Portland
(5)  UNLV vs (12)  Iona
(4)  Vanderbilt vs (13)  Long Beach State
Nashville
(6)  Murray State vs (11)  Mississippi State
(3)  Indiana vs (14)  Oral Roberts
Greensboro
(7)  Creighton vs (10)  Connecticut
(2)  North Carolina vs (15)  Akron

NCAA Field of 68 - February 29, 2012 Edition

• Kentucky overall #1, followed by Syracuse, Duke and Kansas
• Last 4 In - Mississippi State, Texas, St. Joseph's and Colorado State
• Next 6 - Xavier, Miami, FL, Arizona, South Florida, Illinois,
• One First Four game moved to 11 line to accomodate travel, Dayton, BYU and Cincinnati moved to 12 line, but ahead of these teams in my S-curve (although I go back and forth on BYU)
• I decided to go into the prognostication business and have moved VCU in my field, but as Colonial Tourney champ over Drexel.  Just trying to liven the bottom of the bracket up

West Regional
Omaha
(1)  Kansas (16) Texas-Arlington
(8)  New Mexico vs (9) California
Albuquerque
(5)  Florida vs (12) Dayton
(4)  Wichita State vs (13)  Middle Tennessee
Columbus
(6)  Gonzaga vs (11) Iona
(3)  Georgetown vs (14)  Belmont
Columbus
(7)  Kansas State vs (10)  Connecticut
(2)  Michigan State vs (15)  Valparaiso

Midwest Regional
Louisville
(1)  Kentucky vs (16)  Mississippi Valley State/UNC-Asheville
(8)  Memphis vs (9)  St. Mary's
Portland
(5)  Temple vs (12) Cincinnati
(4)  UNLV vs (13)  Washington
Pittsburgh
(6)  Florida State vs (11)  Mississippi State/St. Joseph's
(3)  Ohio State vs (14)  Davidson
Omaha
(7)  Purdue vs (10) West Virginia
(2)  Missouri vs (15) Montana

South Regional
Greensboro
(1)  Duke vs (16)  Stony Brook/Savannah State
(8)  Alabama vs (9)  Southern Miss
Nashville
(5)  Louisville vs (12)  Texas/Colorado State
(4)  Michigan vs (13)  VCU
Albuquerque
(6)  San Diego State vs (11)  St. Louis
(3)  Baylor vs (14)  Nevada
Louisville
(7)  Creighton  vs (10)  Northwestern
(2)  Marquette vs (15)  Akron

East Regional
Pittsburgh
(1)  Syracuse vs (16)  Long Island
(8)  Virginia vs (9)  Iowa State
Portland
(5)  Vanderbilt vs (12)  BYU
(4)  Wisconsin vs (13)  Long Beach State
Nashville
(6)  Murray State vs (11)  Seton Hall
(3)  Indiana vs (14)  Oral Roberts
Greensboro
(7)  Notre Dame vs (10)  Harvard
(2)  North Carolina vs (15)  Bucknell

Bubble Smack

I did a little research on the at-large teams from the past 4 years who were seeded 10 or lower.  There were 30 such teams, 22 from power conferences, 8 from mid-majors.  I looked at the Nitty Gritty details that the committee received and looked for trends.  Here is what I found.

29 of the 30 teams had at least 6 combined road/neutral wins.  Bubble teams currently at 5 include Connecticut, Mississippi State, Washington, Miami, FL and Central Florida.  Bubble teams currently at 4 include Texas, Illinois, South Florida and Colorado State.

20 of the 22 power conference teams had at least 3 top 50 RPI wins.  7 of the 8 non-power conference teams had at least 2 RPI top 50 wins.  Bubble teams currently short of this criteria include Northwestern(2), Miami, FL(2), Mississippi State(2), LSU(2), BYU(1), South Florida(1), Arizona(1), St. Louis(1), VCU(1), Iona(1), NC State(1), California(0), Washington(0), Oregon(0), Drexel(0).  In 2011, UAB and Clemson each had zero, so the expansion to 68 teams may have loosened this criteria.

28 of the 30 teams had at least 6 RPI top 100 wins, 29 of the 30 had 5, all had 4.  Bubble teams less than 6 include St. Mary's(5), BYU(5), South Florida(5), LSU(5), Iona(5), Iowa State(4), Texas(4), Arizona(4), NC State(4), VCU(4), Drexel(4), Washington(3), Miami, FL(3), Central Florida(3), Oregon(2).

The RPI of 51 for VCU was the lowest in the last 4 years by a mid-major, with 44 being the 2nd lowest.

Major conference teams with RPI's of 61, 63, 64 and 67 have made it in the last 4 years, essentially one above 60 each year.  Coincidentally, no major conference team with an RPI in the top 50 has not been selected in the past 4 years, although there were 3 the year before and 4 the year before that, all higher than 38th.

Although top 25 RPI wins are not on the Nitty Gritty, 25 of 30 teams had at least 1 of those.

I know this isn't a huge sample size, but it gives some guidance.  It appears a team with a higher RPI can get in if they meet or excel in all other categories.  A team with a lower RPI can usually have one category slip-up.

Still a long way to go, but for some, time is running out.