Field of 68 - Seed List, February 28, 2013

After Wednesday's Action:

1 - Duke, Indiana, Gonzaga, Miami, FL
2 - Kansas, Georgetown, Florida, New Mexico
3 - Louisville, Michigan, Michigan State, Arizona
4 - Syracuse, Kansas State, Wisconsin, Marquette
5 - UNLV, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, St. Louis
6 - Colorado State, Butler, Notre Dame, Minnesota
7 - Illinois, Pittsburgh, UCLA, Memphis
8 - San Diego State, NC State, Colorado, VCU
9 - Oregon, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Missouri
10 - Wichita State, Cincinnati, California, Temple
11 - Creighton, Iowa State, Belmont, Villanova
12 - LaSalle, St. Mary's/Kentucky, Virginia/Tennessee, Middle Tennessee
13 - Louisiana Tech, Akron, Bucknell, South Dakota State
14 - Valparaiso, Harvard, Stephen F Austin, Davidson
15 - Stony Brook, Montana, Robert Morris, Niagara
16 - Long Beach State, Northeastern, Mercer/Norfolk State, Southern/Charleston Southern

• Lots of movement after an interesting night of basketball.  Michigan had the most surprising loss, one that has derailed their quest for a #1 seed.  They could still sweep Michigan State and Indiana at home to close the regular season, which would get them back in the discussion entering the Big 10 tournament.
• Arizona's loss to USC was less surprising, but they are now hanging onto a thread on the 3-line.  The disheartening part of this from a bracketing standpoint is that it brings San Jose all that much closer to taking up 2 of the 4 spots on the 4-line and making the seeding of the First Round games all the more difficult.
• Wichita State potentially got their last mulligan.  The winner Saturday in their game with Creighton is a lock, while the loser has to at least win one in "Arch Madness".
• Thursday's best game is Duke at Virginia.  The Cavaliers need this one to improve their RPI and get a little more comfortable come Selection Sunday.  The only other game I find interesting is whether Gonzaga can avoid a slip-up in Provo against BYU. 

East
(1) Duke vs (16) Northeastern
Philadelphia, PA
(8) San Diego State vs (9) Oregon

(5) Oklahoma State vs (12) LaSalle
San Jose, CA
(4) Marquette vs (13) South Dakota State

(6) Notre Dame vs (11) Creighton
Auburn Hills, MI
(3)  Michigan State vs (14) Harvard

(7) Memphis vs (10) Wichita State
Austin, TX
(2) Florida vs (15) Niagara

South
(1) Miami, FL vs (16) Norflok State/Charleston Southern
Lexington, KY
(8) VCU vs (9) Missouri

(5) UNLV vs (12) Middle Tennessee
Austin, TX
(4) Wisconsin vs (13) Akron

(6) Minnesota vs (11) Belmont
Dayton, OH
(3) Louisville vs (14) Stephen F Austin

(7) UCLA vs (10) Cincinnati
Kansas City, MO
(2) Kansas vs (15) Robert Morris

Midwest
(1) Indiana vs (16) Mercer/Southern
Dayton, OH
(8) NC State vs (9) Oklahoma

(5) St. Louis vs (12) Tennessee/St. Mary's
Lexington, KY
(4) Syracuse vs (13) Bucknell

(6) Colorado State vs (11) Iowa State
San Jose, CA
(3) Arizona vs (14) Valparaiso

(7) Illinois vs (10) Temple
Philadelphia, PA
(2) Georgetown vs (15) Stony Brook

West
(1) Gonzaga vs (16) Long Beach State
Salt Lake City, UT
(8) Colorado vs (9) North Carolina

(5) Ohio State vs (12) Kentucky/Virginia
Kansas City, MO
(4) Kansas State vs (13) Louisiana Tech

(6) Butler vs (11) Villanova
Auburn Hills, MI
(3) Michigan vs (14) Davidson

(7) Pittsburgh vs (10) California
Salt Lake City, UT
(2) New Mexico vs (15) Montana

Field of 68 - Seed List, Feburary 27, 2013

After Tuesday's Action:

1 - Duke, Indiana, Gonzaga, Miami, FL
2 - Kansas, Michigan, Georgetown, Florida
3 - Louisville, Arizona, New Mexico, Michigan State
4 - Syracuse, Kansas State, Wisconsin, Marquette
5 - UNLV, Oklahoma State, Colorado State, Ohio State
6 - St. Louis, Butler, Notre Dame, Minnesota
7 - Illinois, Pittsburgh, San Diego State, Oklahoma
8 - Memphis, NC State, Wichita State, UCLA
9 - Oregon, VCU, Colorado, North Carolina
10 - Missouri, Cincinnati, California, Temple
11 - Creighton, Iowa State, Belmont, Villanova
12 - LaSalle, St. Mary's, Kentucky, Virginia, Tennessee, Middle Tennessee
13 - Louisiana Tech, Akron, Bucknell, South Dakota State
14 - Valparaiso, Harvard, Stephen F Austin, Davidson
15 - Stony Brook, Montana, Robert Morris, Niagara
16 - Long Beach State, Northeastern, Mercer/Norfolk State, Southern/Charleston Southern

• Tough losses for Indiana and Florida last night, but the two home teams, Minnesota and Tennessee were desperate for a victory.  I had a feeling at least one would fall last night.  I chose to leave both Indiana and Florida in their spots, but Florida has definitely moved to the end of the 2-line and could be surpassed by Louisville or New Mexico at any point. 
• More on the #1 seeds - my current struggle is that I have teams with RPI's of 8 and 10 as #1 seeds.  In recent history that I have data on, teams have received #1 seeds with these RPI's, but not two this low in the same season. (Neither of these teams lost to TCU though)
• Tennessee has earned their way into the Field of 68 with a hot streak that hit its high point with a victory over Florida last night.
• Wednesday night brings us quality match-ups in Georgetown at Connecticut and San Diego State at New Mexico, as well as Bubblicious games with Kentucky, Ole Miss, St. Mary's, Arizona State, Arkansas, Iowa, Boise State, Indiana State and Charlotte all in action.

Field of 68 - Seed List, February 26, 2013

After Monday's Action:

1 - Indiana, Duke, Gonzaga, Miami, FL
2 - Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Georgetown
3 - Louisville, Arizona, New Mexico, Michigan State
4 - Syracuse, Kansas State, Wisconsin, Marquette
5 - UNLV, Oklahoma State, Colorado State, Ohio State
6 - St. Louis, Butler, Illinois, Notre Dame
7 - Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Memphis, San Diego State
8 - NC State, Oklahoma, UCLA, Wichita State
9 - Oregon, VCU, Colorado, North Carolina
10 - Missouri, Cincinnati, California, Temple
11 - Creighton, Iowa State, Belmont, Villanova
12 - LaSalle, St. Mary's, Kentucky, Virginia, Boise State, Middle Tennessee
13 - Louisiana Tech, Akron, Bucknell, South Dakota State
14 - Valparaiso, Harvard, Stephen F Austin, Davidson
15 - Stony Brook, Montana, Robert Morris, Niagara
16 - Long Beach State, Northeastern, Mercer/Norfolk State, Southern/Charleston Southern

• Marquette with the big win of the night, moving them back to the #4 line and sending UNLV back to #5, which is probably correct anyway. 
• Villanova with the big loss of the night, blowing a 4 point lead in the last 20 seconds against Seton Hall.  Their quality wins keep them in the Field, but they need to split their remaining games and get at least a win in the Big East Tourney to solidify their positioning.
• Tuesday brings us Indiana at Minnesota, Memphis at Xavier, and Florida at Tennessee.  The most important result is for the Vols, who can push their way into the field with a win tonight.  With a loss, they might be left without a signature win to impress the committee.

Field of 68 - Seed List, February 25, 2013

After This Weekend's Action:

1 - Indiana, Duke, Gonzaga, Miami, FL
2 - Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Georgetown
3 - Louisville, Arizona, New Mexico, Michigan State
4 - Syracuse, Kansas State, Wisconsin, UNLV
5 - Marquette, Oklahoma State, Colorado State, Ohio State
6 - St. Louis, Butler, Illinois, Notre Dame
7 - Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Memphis, San Diego State
8 - NC State, Oklahoma, UCLA, Wichita State
9 - Oregon, VCU, Colorado, North Carolina
10 - Missouri, Cincinnati, California, Villanova
11 - Creighton, Temple, Iowa State, Belmont
12 - LaSalle, St. Mary's, Kentucky, Virginia, Boise State, Middle Tennessee
13 - Louisiana Tech, Akron, Bucknell, South Dakota State
14 - Valparaiso, Harvard, Stephen F Austin, Davidson
15 - Stony Brook, Montana, Robert Morris, Niagara
16 - Long Beach State, Northeastern, Mercer/Norfolk State, Southern/Charleston Southern

Field of 68 - Seed List, February 22, 2013

After Thursday's Action (Green=Moved Up, Red=Moved Down, Blue=Moved In):

1 - Miami, FL, Indiana, Duke, Gonzaga
2 - Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Michigan State
3 - Syracuse, Arizona, New Mexico, Louisville
4 - Georgetown, Kansas State, Marquette, Butler
5 - Oklahoma State, Wisconsin, Colorado State, Illinois
6 - NC State, UNLV, Pittsburgh, Ohio State
7 -  Minnesota, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, St. Louis
8 - San Diego State, UCLA, Memphis, Oregon
9 - Wichita State, VCU, Missouri, Cincinnati
10 - Colorado, Creighton, North Carolina, LaSalle
11 - California, Iowa State, Belmont, Temple
12 - Villanova, St. Mary's, Virginia, Charlotte, Arizona State, Middle Tennessee
13 - Louisiana Tech, Akron, Bucknell, South Dakota State
14 - Valparaiso, Harvard, Stephen F Austin, Davidson
15 - Stony Brook, Montana, Long Beach State, Robert Morris
16 - Niagara, Northeastern, Mercer/Norfolk State, Southern/High Point

Quick Hits:

• A quiet night in Bracketville results in only a few minor tweaks.  Although I don't love Ohio State's body of work, the 6-line came open for them and warranted a move upward.  I did a slight adjustment for St. Louis who has had injuries and the obvious other obstacles they have overcome in getting to 20-5. 
• Kentucky hosts Missouri and St. John's hosts Pittsburgh this weekend.  A win by either would put them next in line to rejoin the field.

East Region
(1)  Miami, FL vs (16) Mercer/Norfolk State
Lexington, KY
(8)  San Diego State vs (9) Missouri

(5)  Colorado State vs (12)  Virginia/Arizona State
Lexington. KY
(4)  Georgetown vs (13)  Bucknell

(6)  Pittsburgh vs (11)  Iowa State
San Jose, CA
(3)  Arizona vs (14)  Stephen F Austin

(7)  St. Louis vs (10)  North Carolina
Auburn Hills, MI
(2)  Michigan State vs (15)  Montana

West Region
(1)  Gonzaga vs (16)  Niagara
Salt Lake City, UT
(8)  Memphis vs (9)  Wichita State

(5)  Wisconsin vs (12)  Villanova
Austin, TX
(4)  Butler vs (13)  Akron

(6)  NC State vs (11)  Belmont
Philadelphia, PA
(3)  Syracuse vs (14)  Davidson

(7)  Minnesota vs (10)  Colorado
Kansas City, MO
(2)  Kansas vs (15)  Long Beach State

Midwest Region
(1)  Indiana vs (16)  Southern/High Point
Dayton, OH
(8)  UCLA vs (9)  VCU

(5)  Oklahoma State vs (12)  Middle Tennessee
San Jose, CA
(4)  Marquette vs (13)  South Dakota State

(6)  Ohio State vs (11)  California
Salt Lake City, UT
(3)  New Mexico vs (14)  Valparaiso

(7)  Notre Dame vs (10)  LaSalle
Dayton, OH
(2)  Florida vs (15)  Stony Brook

South Region
(1)  Duke vs (16)  Northeastern
Philadelphia, PA
(8)  Oregon vs (9)  Cincinnati

(5)  Illinois vs (12)  St. Mary's/Charlotte
Kansas City, MO
(4)  Kansas State vs (13)  Louisiana Tech

(6)  UNLV vs (11)  Temple
Austin, TX
(3)  Louisville vs (14)  Harvard

(7)  Oklahoma vs (10)  Creighton
Auburn Hills, MI
(2)  Michigan vs (15)  Robert Morris

Field of 68 - This Year's Bid Stealers

As the Bracketology world puts together their brackets this time of year, we all talk about the soft bubble and compare the mediocre resumes of the teams vying for those last at-large spots.  All brackets right now are completed assuming the maximum number of at-large spots are available, which could very-well hold true, but there is always the chance for "Bid Stealers" or "Bubble Shrinkers".  They are the worst nightmare for teams on the Bubble, teams who may have only done almost enough to earn a bid.  So where might those potential bid stealers come from this year?  Who are the most likely bubble shrinkers?  For teams like Ole Miss, Virginia, Arizona State, Charlotte, etc...do your part, but root against these guys as well!!

A team other than Gonzaga from the West Coast Conference
With St. Mary's squarely on the Bubble pending games against BYU and Creighton, any team other than Gonzaga that wins the West Coast Conference Tourney would be in theory stealing a bid.  St. Mary's and BYU would be the most likely candidates.

A team other than Memphis from Conference-USA
Memphis is doing enough to lock down an at-large berth, so barring a late February/early March swoon, the Tigers will be in the Field of 68.  Southern Miss and UTEP might be candidates to upend Memphis in the C-USA Tourney.

A 3rd team from the Missouri Valley
While Creighton and Wichita State are closer to the Bubble than they were a month ago, both would appear safe at this time.  The Missouri Valley has provided some bubble shrinking in the past, and Indiana State, Northern Iowa, Illinois State and Evansville have proven they can beat the Blue Jays and Shockers.

An SEC team on the outside-looking-in
As of today, Jabesblog has the SEC as a two-bid league.  Kentucky or Ole Miss can earn their way onto the Bubble, but will be nervous come Selection Sunday unless they win the SEC Tourney.  If Florida is knocked off, Missouri is hardly unbeatable away from home.  Tennessee would be a great darkhorse here.

An Atlantic 10 team from out-of-nowhere
Think St. Bonaventure last season.  The Atlantic 10 is deep and while a team would have to carve their way through 2 or maybe 3 NCAA Tourney teams, it does not seem unfathomable in this league.  When Xavier gets hot, they can beat anyone.  Same goes for St. Joseph's.  Or Massachusetts.  Richmond or George Washington.  And don't forget Charlotte or Temple might need it by that time too.

A 2nd team from the Ohio Valley
It all depends on how Belmont is perceived by the committee, but if they can win-out to the OVC Final from this point, it might be tough to keep them out of the dance, leaving Murray State or Eastern Kentucky in position to burst someones bubble.

Stanford, Washington or USC
The separation between the PAC-12 leaders and these two is not that great.  Any of the 3 could rip through the PAC-12 Tourney without much notice.

Field of 68 - Seed List, February 21, 2013

After Wednesday's Action (Green=Moved Up, Red=Moved Down, Blue=Moved In):

1 - Miami, FL, Indiana, Duke, Gonzaga
2 - Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Michigan State
3 - Syracuse, Arizona, New Mexico, Louisville
4 - Georgetown, Kansas State, Marquette, Butler
5 - Oklahoma State, Wisconsin, Colorado State, Illinois
6 - Oregon, NC State, UNLV, Pittsburgh
7 -  Ohio State, Minnesota, Notre Dame, Oklahoma
8 - Cincinnati, San Diego State, UCLA, Memphis
9 - Wichita State, VCU, St. Louis, Missouri
10 - Colorado, Creighton, North Carolina, LaSalle
11 - California, Iowa State, Belmont, Temple
12 - Villanova, St. Mary's, Virginia, Charlotte, Arizona State, Middle Tennessee
13 - Louisiana Tech, Akron, Bucknell, South Dakota State
14 - Valparaiso, Harvard, Stephen F Austin, Davidson
15 - Stony Brook, Montana, Long Beach State, Robert Morris
16 - Niagara, Northeastern, Mercer/Norfolk State, Southern/High Point

Quick Hits:

• If you didn't see the Oklahoma State-Kansas game, it was like a heavyweight fight where neither team led by more than 5 points at any time.  It pains me to move the Cowboys down after such an effort, but it is still a home loss and knocks them out of the conference lead.  It will be interesting how the committee sees the TCU loss, because Kansas just notched their 10th top 50 win (Florida has 5, Gonzaga 3 in comparison) to lead the nation.
• Minnesota has fallen on hard times and needed to take a fall in the bracket. 
• Ole Miss lost to South Carolina last night and is not included in today's field.  It is at least like a time-out you give to your child, but it might end up being a permanent punishment.  I think Alabama is surpassing them in resume now from the SEC.
• Baylor is also in big trouble after losing at home to Iowa State.  With a tough finishing schedule, I am also removing the Bears from the field based on the fact that I think they end up with at least 14 losses.
• Charlotte gets to move back in by not laying a weekday game, but must win at Temple Sunday to solidify consideration.  Arizona State is also back in, but just like Virginia, they still have a lot to prove.
• Kentucky hosts Missouri and St. John's hosts Pittsburgh this weekend.  A win by either would put them next in line to rejoin the field.