Instead of picking every game straight up this year, I thought I would go more Vegas-style and select certain games each week to pick against the spread. Last weeks record: A humbling 3-8. Season record: 46-37-2. Lock of the Week: 7-2.
Lock of the Week: Cincinnati -4 vs Syracuse. It seems the football world has now soured on the Bearcats, but I am pretty sure losing at Louisville in overtime is not a bad loss and Toledo is a darn good football team as well. Syracuse doesn't usually travel well and Cincy has taken 6 of the last 7 in this match-up. I expect a little bounce-back from the Bearcats this week...Cincinnati 35, Syracuse 24.
Swamp Danger Game of the Week: Missouri +17 at Florida. The Tigers get James Franklin back and have to be a little desperate for their bowl life. The Gators need to bounce back and hope for help in their SEC Championship pursuit. Missouri has the Georgia film as a recipe to at least slow down the Florida offense and keep it close for a while...Florida 21, Missouri 14.
Wolverines Resemble Weasels Game of the Week: Minnesota +11.5 vs Michigan. The Gophers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games, while the Wolverines are only 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 trips out of Ann Arbor. Combined with the fact that Denard Robinson is a little banged up and Minnesota has made a positive change at quarterback should lead to a closer than expected game...Michigan 28, Minnesota 23.
Rondey Dangerfield Game of the Week: Mississippi State +7 vs Texas A&M. I love me some Johnny Football, but it seems the Bulldogs are becoming a no respect team. Who doesn't get blown out at Alabama? This match-up could go either way, which makes taking 7 points with the home team too good to pass up...Texas A&M 34, Mississippi State 30.
Patriotic Game of the Week: Air Force -7 at Army. I hate to pick on the Cadets, but they seem to get line love on a weekly basis. They are 1-7 with a loss to Stony Brook!! The Falcons are playing better and have won 9 of 10 in this rivalry. The road team is also 10-2 ATS in the last 12 in this match-up. Look for Ground Force to run all over Army on Saturday...Air Force 42, Army 28.
Is Cam Newton Playing Game of the Week: New Mexico State +22.5 at Auburn. In a battle of 1-7 teams, that is a lot of points. This line overlooks the flaws of Auburn and expects an equally inferior opponent to make them look good. The Aggies should be able to score enough points to make this line hard to cover...Auburn 31, New Mexico State 21.
No Catchy Name Game of the Week: Maryland +8 vs Georgia Tech. The Terps didn't look good against BC a week ago, but Tech looked worse against BYU. Maryland's defense has been a constant and this is not your recent solid versions of the Yellow Jackets. 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two have been closer than 8 points and I expect the same this week...Georgia Tech 23, Maryland 20.
Rested and Revived Game of the Week: West Virginia -5 vs TCU. With an extra week off to regroup, the Mountaineers should be ready for a TCU team that has not looked all that great for most of the season. The young Horned Frog defense will be tested and this looks like a spot for WVU to get their season headed back in the right direction. After losing on the road ny 22 last week, more of the same will be in store for TCU in Morgantown...West Virginia 42, TCU 20.
Those Pesky Panthers Game of the Week: Pittsburgh +16.5 at Notre Dame. Every few weeks the Notre Dame offense looks good, but usually they score 20 points or less. Pitt usually plays Notre Dame tough and the last 4 meetings have been 3, 6, 5 and 3 point games. I expect Notre Dame to continue their dream season, but not as easy as this line is making it look...Notre Dame 20, Pittsburgh 10.
Offensive Explosion I Game of the Week:Northern Illinois -34.5 vs Massachusetts. The Minutemen average road margin is -35.6, so this line seems fair. Michigan beat them by 50 and Northern's offense rivals that of the Wolverines. With the Huskies on a roll, this one should turn ugly fast...Northern Illinois 56, Massachusetts 14.
A Season Down the Drain Game of the Week: Penn State -3.5 at Purdue. Has anyone seen Purdue play recently? Yes they scared Ohio State, but I have no confidence in the Boilermakers who must realize their season is lost...Penn State 28, Purdue 17.
Very Few People Care Game of the Week: Tulane +5.5 vs Rice. I have no statistical or inside knowledge on this one. It seems like Tulane's offense has woken up and that Rice is questionable on the road. So in my effort to take more home teams, I like the Green Wave as a dog this week...Tulane 36, Rice 35.
You Read it Right Game of the Week: La-Lafayette +10 at La-Monroe. Yes, I am picking against ULM with ULL. Road teams is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings, Underdog is 13-2 ATS in the last 15 meetings, ULL is 17-5 ATS in their last 22 on the road. The numbers don't lie...ULM 35, ULL 34.
Offensive Explosion II Game of the Week: Louisiana Tech -31 vs UTSA. The Bulldogs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games and the over also has favorable stats in this one, which means the Tech offense is going to be revved up. UTSA was 5-0 until they began playing better competition and has dropped the last 3 by an average of 26.3. Louisiana Tech will be even better than that competition...Louisiana Tech 62, UTSA 21.
Nobody Cares Game of the Week: UAB +3 at Southern Mississippi. I am taking the 1-7 team over the 0-8 team, even on the road, and that is enough about this game...UAB 40, Southern Mississippi 37.
BCS Chaos Game of the Week: LSU +8 vs Alabama. All the line trends actually favor the Tide, but my gut says that this is the close one that Alabama will need to endure to reach a perfect season. I want to pick the Tigers to cause SEC panic as far as the BCS, but I am not sure I can go that far...wait, since this is for entertainment purposes only, of course I can...LSU 19, Alabama 16.
Sports Blog specializing in Bracketology
Friday, November 2, 2012
Monday, October 29, 2012
College Football 2012 - Week 9 Bowl Bubble Watch
PAC-12
Washington (4-4) - at California (L), Utah (W), at Colorado (W), at Washington State (W), projected record 7-5 (the Huskies can breathe easier after upsetting Oregon State)
Arizona (5-3) - at UCLA (L), Colorado (W), at Utah (W), Arizona State (L), projected record 7-5 (like the Huskies, Arizona's upset of USC should send them bowling, especially with Colorado remaining)
Utah (3-5) - Washington State (W), at Washington (L), Arizona (L), at Colorado (W), projected record 5-7 (not out of the bowl picture yet, the home game with Arizona looks like the big one)
PAC-12 Reset:
1. Oregon Ducks, 8-0 (BCS National Title Game)
2. Oregon State Beavers, 6-1 (Rose Bowl)
3. Stanford Cardinal, 6-2 (Las Vegas Bowl)
4. USC Trojans, 6-2 (Alamo Bowl)
5. UCLA Bruins, 6-2 (Holiday Bowl)
6. Arizona Wildcats, 5-3 (Sun Bowl)
7. Arizona State Sun Devils, 5-3 (Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl)
8. Washington Huskies, 4-4 (New Mexico Bowl)
9. Utah Utes, 3-5
10. California Golden Bears, 3-6
11. Washington State Cougars, 2-6
12. Colorado Buffaloes, 1-7
Big 10
Note: Many Bowl Projections are leaving 8 Big Ten Teams in this week. I am going with 7, as you see right now I am moving the Golden Gophers out this week.
Iowa (4-4) - at Indiana (W), Purdue (W), at Michigan (L), Nebraska (L), projected record 6-6 (the next two weeks look huge for the Hawkeyes)
Purdue (3-5) - Penn State (L), at Iowa (L), at Illinois (W), Indiana (W) - projected record 5-7 (it is now or never for the disappointing Boilermakers)
Minnesota (5-3) - Michigan (L), at Illinois (W), at Nebraska (L), Michigan State (L), projected record 6-6 (not a great road team, the Gophers will have to win at Illinois or get to 20 and beat Michigan State at home)
Big 10 Reset:
1. Ohio State Buckeyes, 9-0
2. Nebraska Cornhuskers, 6-2 (Rose Bowl)
3. Penn State Nittany Lions, 5-3
4. Michigan Wolverines, 5-3 (Capital One Bowl)
5. Northwestern Wildcats, 7-2 (Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl)
6. Wisconsin Badgers, 6-3 (Outback Bowl)
7. Michigan State Spartans, 5-4 (Gator Bowl)
8. Iowa Hawkeyes, 4-4 (Heart of Dallas Bowl)
9. Minnesota Golden Gophers, 5-3 (Texas Bowl)
10. Purdue Boilermakers, 3-5
11. Indiana Hoosiers, 3-5
12. Illinois Fighting Illini, 2-6
(currently not filling Little Caesars bowl slot)
SEC
Tennessee (3-5) - Troy (W), Missouri (W), at Vanderbilt (W), Kentucky (W), projected record 7-5 (With Troy and Kentucky at home, it really comes down to splitting the Missouri/Vandy games.)
Vanderbilt (4-4) - at Kentucky (W), at Ole Miss (L), Tennessee (L), at Wake Forest (W) - projected record 6-6 (with three games left on the road, it won't be easy for the Commodores)
Missouri (4-4) - at Florida (L), at Tennessee (L), Syracuse (W), at Texas A&M (L), projected record 5-7 (have to figure out a way to beat Tennessee or A&M on the road)
Arkansas (3-5) - Tulsa (W), at South Carolina (L), at Mississippi State (L), LSU (L), projected record 4-8 (will likely be a fitting end to a disappointing season for the Razorbacks)
Ole Miss (5-3) - at Georgia (L), Vanderbilt (W), at LSU (L), Mississippi State (L), projected record 6-6 (the win over Arkansas makes bowling a realistic possibility)
SEC Reset:
1. Alabama Crimson Tide, 8-0 (BCS National Title Game)
2. LSU Tigers, 7-1 (Capital One Bowl)
3. Georgia Bulldogs, 7-1 (Outback Bowl)
4. Florida Gators, 7-1 (Sugar Bowl)
5. Mississippi State Bulldogs, 7-1 (Cotton Bowl)
6. South Carolina Gamecocks, 7-2 (Gator Bowl)
7. Texas A&M Aggies, 6-2 (Chick Fil-A Bowl)
8. Ole Miss Rebels, 5-3 (Music City Bowl)
9. Tennessee Volunteers, 3-5 (Liberty Bowl)
10. Vanderbilt Commodores, 4-4 (Independence Bowl)
11. Missouri Tigers, 4-4
12. Arkansas Razorbacks, 3-5
13. Auburn Tigers, 1-7
14. Kentucky Wildcats, 1-8
(currently not filling BBVA Compass bowl slot)
Big 12
Note: Projecting 7 teams in from the Big 12, but the likelihood of an 8th is still there. TCU is a good team with a brutal finishing schedule.
Oklahoma State (5-2) - at Kansas State (L), West Virginia (L), Texas Tech (W), at Oklahoma (L), at Baylor (W), projected record 7-5 (The Cowboys might be contenders for the Big 12 title)
TCU (5-3) - at West Virginia (L), Kansas State (L), at Texas (L), Oklahoma (L), projected record 5-7 (only need one more win, but who are they going to beat?)
Iowa State (5-3) - Oklahoma (L), at Texas (L), at Kansas (W), West Virginia (L), projected record 6-6 (with Kansas on the remaining schedule, a bowl bid is almost locked in)
Baylor (3-4) - Kansas (W), at Oklahoma (L), Kansas State (L), Texas Tech (L), Oklahoma State (L) - projected record 4-8 (the defense is just so bad)
Big 12 Reset:
1. Kansas State Wildcats, 8-0 (Fiesta Bowl)
2. Oklahoma Sooners, 5-2 (Cotton Bowl)
3. Texas Tech Red Raiders, 6-2 (Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl)
4. West Virginia Mountaineers, 5-2 (Alamo Bowl)
5. Texas Longhorns, 6-2 (Texas Bowl)
6. Oklahoma State Cowboys, 5-2 (Holiday Bowl)
7. Iowa State Cyclones, 5-3 (Pinstripe Bowl)
8. TCU Horned Frogs, 5-3
9. Baylor Bears, 3-4
10. Kansas Jayhawks, 1-7
ACC
Virginia Tech (4-4) - at Miami FL (L), Florida State (L), at Boston College (W), Virginia (W), projected record 6-6 (could easily win at Miami, FL this week and earn some breathing room)
Maryland (4-4) - Georgia Tech (W), at Clemson (L), Florida State (L), at North Carolina (L), projected record 5-7 (losing their starting quarterback has made bowling a difficult task)
Georgia Tech (3-5) - at Maryland (L), at North Carolina (L), Duke (W), at Georgia (L), projected record 4-8 (they just don't look that good on a weekly basis)
Wake Forest (4-4) - Boston College (W), at NC State (L), at Notre Dame (L), Vanderbilt (L), projected record 5-7 (BC is one, where is the other?)
ACC Reset
1. Florida State Seminoles, 8-1 (Orange Bowl)
2. Clemson Tigers, 7-1 (Chick Fil-A Bowl)
3. North Carolina Tar Heels, 6-3
4. NC State Wolfpack, 5-3 (Russell Athletic Bowl)
5. Miami Hurricanes, 4-4 (Belk Bowl)
6. Virginia Tech Hokies, 4-4 (Sun Bowl)
7. Duke Blue Devils, 6-3 (Music City Bowl)
8. Maryland Terrapins, 4-4
9. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, 3-5
10. Wake Forest Demon Deacons, 4-4
11. Boston College Eagles, 2-6
12. Virginia Cavaliers, 2-6
(currently not filling Independence or Military Bowl slot)
Big East
Pittsburgh (4-4) - at Notre Dame (L), at Connecticut (W), Rutgers (L), at South Florida (W), projected record 6-6 (I am giving Pitt the benefit of the doubt, but they have no margin for error)
Temple (3-4) - at Louisville (L), Cincinnati (L), at Army (W), Syracuse (W), projected record 5-6 (This weeks game at Pittsburgh may likely determine the 4th bowl slot from the Big East.)
Syracuse (4-4) - at Cincinnati (L), Louisville (L), at Missouri (L), at Temple (L) projected record 4-8 (with 4 wins and 2 in a row, the Orange are included here)
Big East Reset:
1. Louisville Cardinals, 8-0 (Orange Bowl)
2. Rutgers Scarlett Knights, 7-1 (Russell Athletic Bowl)
3. Cincinnati Bearcats, 5-2 (Belk Bowl)
4. Pittsburgh Panthers, 4-4 (Pinstripe Bowl)
5. Syracuse Orange, 4-4
6. Temple Owls, 3-4
7. South Florida Bulls, 2-6
8. Connecticut Huskies, 3-5
(currently not filling BBVA Compass Bowl or Beef O'Brady's Bowl slots)
Other Conferences/Independents
Houston (4-4) - at East Carolina (W), Tulsa (L), at Marshall (L), Tulane (W). projected record 6-6
Marshall (3-5) - Memphis(W), at UAB (W), Houston (W), at East Carolina (L), projected record 6-6
SMU (4-4) - at UCF (L), Southern Miss (W), at Rice (W), Tulsa (L), projected record 6-6
Western Michigan (3-6) - at Central Michigan (W), at Buffalo (W), Eastern Michigan (W), projected record 6-6
Miami(OH) (4-4) - at Buffalo (W), Kent State (L), at Central Michigan (L), Ball State (W), projected record 6-6
Central Michigan (3-5) - Western Michigan (L), at Eastern Michigan (W), Miami(OH) (W), at UMass (W), projected record 6-6
Air Force (5-3) - at Army (W), at San Diego State (L), Hawaii (W), at Fresno State (L), projected record 7-5
New Mexico (4-5) - at UNLV (L), Wyoming (W), Nevada (L), at Colorado State (W), projected record 6-7
Other Conferences/Independents Reset:
1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish, 8-0 (Fiesta Bowl)
2. Boise State Broncos, 7-1 (Sugar Bowl)
3. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, 7-1 (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl)
4. Northern Illinois Huskies, 8-1 (Little Caesars Bowl)
5. Tulsa Golden Hurricane, 7-1 (Hawaii Bowl)
6. Kent State Golden Flash, 7-1 (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl)
7. Ohio Bobcats, 8-1 (GoDaddy.com Bowl)
8. Toledo Rockets, 8-1 (Beef O'Brady's Bowl**)
9. UCF Golden Knights, 6-2 (Liberty Bowl)
10. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks, 6-2 (New Orleans Bowl)
11. Utah State Aggies, 7-2 (Independence Bowl**)
12. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, 6-2 (GoDaddy.com Bowl)
13. Fresno State Bulldogs, 6-3 (Las Vegas Bowl)
14. San Diego State Aztecs, 6-3 (Hawaii Bowl)
15. Nevada Wolfpack, 6-3 (Poinsettia Bowl)
16. Air Force Falcons, 5-3 (Armed Forces Bowl)
17. BYU Cougars, 5-4 (Poinsettia Bowl)
18. Ball State Cardinals, 6-3 (Military Bowl**)
19. Bowling Green Falcons, 6-3 (BBVA Compass Bowl**)
20. San Jose State Spartans, 6-2 (New Mexico Bowl**)
21. Arkansas State Redwolves, 5-3 (Little Caesars Bowl**)
22. Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders, 5-3 (Military Bowl**)
23. Navy Midshipmen, 5-3 (Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl)
24. East Carolina Pirates, 5-4 (New Orleans Bowl)
25. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns, 4-3 (BBVA Compass Bowl**)
Other Projected Bowl Eligible Teams:
Marshall Thundering Herd, 3-5 (Beef O'Brady's Bowl)
Houston Cougars, 4-4 (Armed Forces Bowl)
SMU Mustangs, 4-4 (Heart of Dallas Bowl)
Washington (4-4) - at California (L), Utah (W), at Colorado (W), at Washington State (W), projected record 7-5 (the Huskies can breathe easier after upsetting Oregon State)
Arizona (5-3) - at UCLA (L), Colorado (W), at Utah (W), Arizona State (L), projected record 7-5 (like the Huskies, Arizona's upset of USC should send them bowling, especially with Colorado remaining)
Utah (3-5) - Washington State (W), at Washington (L), Arizona (L), at Colorado (W), projected record 5-7 (not out of the bowl picture yet, the home game with Arizona looks like the big one)
PAC-12 Reset:
1. Oregon Ducks, 8-0 (BCS National Title Game)
2. Oregon State Beavers, 6-1 (Rose Bowl)
3. Stanford Cardinal, 6-2 (Las Vegas Bowl)
4. USC Trojans, 6-2 (Alamo Bowl)
5. UCLA Bruins, 6-2 (Holiday Bowl)
6. Arizona Wildcats, 5-3 (Sun Bowl)
7. Arizona State Sun Devils, 5-3 (Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl)
8. Washington Huskies, 4-4 (New Mexico Bowl)
9. Utah Utes, 3-5
10. California Golden Bears, 3-6
11. Washington State Cougars, 2-6
12. Colorado Buffaloes, 1-7
Big 10
Note: Many Bowl Projections are leaving 8 Big Ten Teams in this week. I am going with 7, as you see right now I am moving the Golden Gophers out this week.
Iowa (4-4) - at Indiana (W), Purdue (W), at Michigan (L), Nebraska (L), projected record 6-6 (the next two weeks look huge for the Hawkeyes)
Purdue (3-5) - Penn State (L), at Iowa (L), at Illinois (W), Indiana (W) - projected record 5-7 (it is now or never for the disappointing Boilermakers)
Minnesota (5-3) - Michigan (L), at Illinois (W), at Nebraska (L), Michigan State (L), projected record 6-6 (not a great road team, the Gophers will have to win at Illinois or get to 20 and beat Michigan State at home)
Big 10 Reset:
1. Ohio State Buckeyes, 9-0
2. Nebraska Cornhuskers, 6-2 (Rose Bowl)
3. Penn State Nittany Lions, 5-3
4. Michigan Wolverines, 5-3 (Capital One Bowl)
5. Northwestern Wildcats, 7-2 (Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl)
6. Wisconsin Badgers, 6-3 (Outback Bowl)
7. Michigan State Spartans, 5-4 (Gator Bowl)
8. Iowa Hawkeyes, 4-4 (Heart of Dallas Bowl)
9. Minnesota Golden Gophers, 5-3 (Texas Bowl)
10. Purdue Boilermakers, 3-5
11. Indiana Hoosiers, 3-5
12. Illinois Fighting Illini, 2-6
(currently not filling Little Caesars bowl slot)
SEC
Tennessee (3-5) - Troy (W), Missouri (W), at Vanderbilt (W), Kentucky (W), projected record 7-5 (With Troy and Kentucky at home, it really comes down to splitting the Missouri/Vandy games.)
Vanderbilt (4-4) - at Kentucky (W), at Ole Miss (L), Tennessee (L), at Wake Forest (W) - projected record 6-6 (with three games left on the road, it won't be easy for the Commodores)
Missouri (4-4) - at Florida (L), at Tennessee (L), Syracuse (W), at Texas A&M (L), projected record 5-7 (have to figure out a way to beat Tennessee or A&M on the road)
Arkansas (3-5) - Tulsa (W), at South Carolina (L), at Mississippi State (L), LSU (L), projected record 4-8 (will likely be a fitting end to a disappointing season for the Razorbacks)
Ole Miss (5-3) - at Georgia (L), Vanderbilt (W), at LSU (L), Mississippi State (L), projected record 6-6 (the win over Arkansas makes bowling a realistic possibility)
SEC Reset:
1. Alabama Crimson Tide, 8-0 (BCS National Title Game)
2. LSU Tigers, 7-1 (Capital One Bowl)
3. Georgia Bulldogs, 7-1 (Outback Bowl)
4. Florida Gators, 7-1 (Sugar Bowl)
5. Mississippi State Bulldogs, 7-1 (Cotton Bowl)
6. South Carolina Gamecocks, 7-2 (Gator Bowl)
7. Texas A&M Aggies, 6-2 (Chick Fil-A Bowl)
8. Ole Miss Rebels, 5-3 (Music City Bowl)
9. Tennessee Volunteers, 3-5 (Liberty Bowl)
10. Vanderbilt Commodores, 4-4 (Independence Bowl)
11. Missouri Tigers, 4-4
12. Arkansas Razorbacks, 3-5
13. Auburn Tigers, 1-7
14. Kentucky Wildcats, 1-8
(currently not filling BBVA Compass bowl slot)
Big 12
Note: Projecting 7 teams in from the Big 12, but the likelihood of an 8th is still there. TCU is a good team with a brutal finishing schedule.
Oklahoma State (5-2) - at Kansas State (L), West Virginia (L), Texas Tech (W), at Oklahoma (L), at Baylor (W), projected record 7-5 (The Cowboys might be contenders for the Big 12 title)
TCU (5-3) - at West Virginia (L), Kansas State (L), at Texas (L), Oklahoma (L), projected record 5-7 (only need one more win, but who are they going to beat?)
Iowa State (5-3) - Oklahoma (L), at Texas (L), at Kansas (W), West Virginia (L), projected record 6-6 (with Kansas on the remaining schedule, a bowl bid is almost locked in)
Baylor (3-4) - Kansas (W), at Oklahoma (L), Kansas State (L), Texas Tech (L), Oklahoma State (L) - projected record 4-8 (the defense is just so bad)
Big 12 Reset:
1. Kansas State Wildcats, 8-0 (Fiesta Bowl)
2. Oklahoma Sooners, 5-2 (Cotton Bowl)
3. Texas Tech Red Raiders, 6-2 (Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl)
4. West Virginia Mountaineers, 5-2 (Alamo Bowl)
5. Texas Longhorns, 6-2 (Texas Bowl)
6. Oklahoma State Cowboys, 5-2 (Holiday Bowl)
7. Iowa State Cyclones, 5-3 (Pinstripe Bowl)
8. TCU Horned Frogs, 5-3
9. Baylor Bears, 3-4
10. Kansas Jayhawks, 1-7
ACC
Virginia Tech (4-4) - at Miami FL (L), Florida State (L), at Boston College (W), Virginia (W), projected record 6-6 (could easily win at Miami, FL this week and earn some breathing room)
Maryland (4-4) - Georgia Tech (W), at Clemson (L), Florida State (L), at North Carolina (L), projected record 5-7 (losing their starting quarterback has made bowling a difficult task)
Georgia Tech (3-5) - at Maryland (L), at North Carolina (L), Duke (W), at Georgia (L), projected record 4-8 (they just don't look that good on a weekly basis)
Wake Forest (4-4) - Boston College (W), at NC State (L), at Notre Dame (L), Vanderbilt (L), projected record 5-7 (BC is one, where is the other?)
ACC Reset
1. Florida State Seminoles, 8-1 (Orange Bowl)
2. Clemson Tigers, 7-1 (Chick Fil-A Bowl)
3. North Carolina Tar Heels, 6-3
4. NC State Wolfpack, 5-3 (Russell Athletic Bowl)
5. Miami Hurricanes, 4-4 (Belk Bowl)
6. Virginia Tech Hokies, 4-4 (Sun Bowl)
7. Duke Blue Devils, 6-3 (Music City Bowl)
8. Maryland Terrapins, 4-4
9. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, 3-5
10. Wake Forest Demon Deacons, 4-4
11. Boston College Eagles, 2-6
12. Virginia Cavaliers, 2-6
(currently not filling Independence or Military Bowl slot)
Big East
Pittsburgh (4-4) - at Notre Dame (L), at Connecticut (W), Rutgers (L), at South Florida (W), projected record 6-6 (I am giving Pitt the benefit of the doubt, but they have no margin for error)
Temple (3-4) - at Louisville (L), Cincinnati (L), at Army (W), Syracuse (W), projected record 5-6 (This weeks game at Pittsburgh may likely determine the 4th bowl slot from the Big East.)
Syracuse (4-4) - at Cincinnati (L), Louisville (L), at Missouri (L), at Temple (L) projected record 4-8 (with 4 wins and 2 in a row, the Orange are included here)
Big East Reset:
1. Louisville Cardinals, 8-0 (Orange Bowl)
2. Rutgers Scarlett Knights, 7-1 (Russell Athletic Bowl)
3. Cincinnati Bearcats, 5-2 (Belk Bowl)
4. Pittsburgh Panthers, 4-4 (Pinstripe Bowl)
5. Syracuse Orange, 4-4
6. Temple Owls, 3-4
7. South Florida Bulls, 2-6
8. Connecticut Huskies, 3-5
(currently not filling BBVA Compass Bowl or Beef O'Brady's Bowl slots)
Other Conferences/Independents
Houston (4-4) - at East Carolina (W), Tulsa (L), at Marshall (L), Tulane (W). projected record 6-6
Marshall (3-5) - Memphis(W), at UAB (W), Houston (W), at East Carolina (L), projected record 6-6
SMU (4-4) - at UCF (L), Southern Miss (W), at Rice (W), Tulsa (L), projected record 6-6
Western Michigan (3-6) - at Central Michigan (W), at Buffalo (W), Eastern Michigan (W), projected record 6-6
Miami(OH) (4-4) - at Buffalo (W), Kent State (L), at Central Michigan (L), Ball State (W), projected record 6-6
Central Michigan (3-5) - Western Michigan (L), at Eastern Michigan (W), Miami(OH) (W), at UMass (W), projected record 6-6
Air Force (5-3) - at Army (W), at San Diego State (L), Hawaii (W), at Fresno State (L), projected record 7-5
New Mexico (4-5) - at UNLV (L), Wyoming (W), Nevada (L), at Colorado State (W), projected record 6-7
Other Conferences/Independents Reset:
1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish, 8-0 (Fiesta Bowl)
2. Boise State Broncos, 7-1 (Sugar Bowl)
3. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, 7-1 (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl)
4. Northern Illinois Huskies, 8-1 (Little Caesars Bowl)
5. Tulsa Golden Hurricane, 7-1 (Hawaii Bowl)
6. Kent State Golden Flash, 7-1 (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl)
7. Ohio Bobcats, 8-1 (GoDaddy.com Bowl)
8. Toledo Rockets, 8-1 (Beef O'Brady's Bowl**)
9. UCF Golden Knights, 6-2 (Liberty Bowl)
10. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks, 6-2 (New Orleans Bowl)
11. Utah State Aggies, 7-2 (Independence Bowl**)
12. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, 6-2 (GoDaddy.com Bowl)
13. Fresno State Bulldogs, 6-3 (Las Vegas Bowl)
14. San Diego State Aztecs, 6-3 (Hawaii Bowl)
15. Nevada Wolfpack, 6-3 (Poinsettia Bowl)
16. Air Force Falcons, 5-3 (Armed Forces Bowl)
17. BYU Cougars, 5-4 (Poinsettia Bowl)
18. Ball State Cardinals, 6-3 (Military Bowl**)
19. Bowling Green Falcons, 6-3 (BBVA Compass Bowl**)
20. San Jose State Spartans, 6-2 (New Mexico Bowl**)
21. Arkansas State Redwolves, 5-3 (Little Caesars Bowl**)
22. Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders, 5-3 (Military Bowl**)
23. Navy Midshipmen, 5-3 (Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl)
24. East Carolina Pirates, 5-4 (New Orleans Bowl)
25. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns, 4-3 (BBVA Compass Bowl**)
Other Projected Bowl Eligible Teams:
Marshall Thundering Herd, 3-5 (Beef O'Brady's Bowl)
Houston Cougars, 4-4 (Armed Forces Bowl)
SMU Mustangs, 4-4 (Heart of Dallas Bowl)
College Football 2012 - Updated Bowl Projections (Week 9)
New Mexico Bowl - Washington Huskies vs San Jose State Spartans
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl - Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs Kent State Golden Flash
Poinsettia Bowl - Nevada Wolfpack vs BYU Cougars
Beef O'Brady's Bowl - Toledo Rockets vs Marshall Thundering Herd
New Orleans Bowl - East Carolina Pirates vs Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
Las Vegas Bowl - Fresno State Bulldogs vs Stanford Cardinals
Hawaii Bowl - San Diego State Aztecs vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Little Caesars Bowl - Northern Illinois Huskies vs Arkansas State Redwolves
Military Bowl - Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders vs Ball State Cardinals
Belk Bowl - Miami Hurricanes vs Cincinnati Bearcats
Holiday Bowl - UCLA Bruins vs Oklahoma State Cowboys
Russell Athletic Bowl - Rutgers Scarlett Knights vs North Carolina State Wolfpack
Independence Bowl - Vanderbilt Commodores vs Utah State Aggies
Texas Bowl - Texas Longhorns vs Minnesota Golden Gophers
Armed Forces Bowl - Houston Cougars vs Air Force Falcons
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl - Arizona State Sun Devils vs Navy Midshipmen
Alamo Bowl - USC Trojans vs West Virginia Mountaineers
Pinstripe Bowl - Iowa State Cyclones vs Pittsburgh Panthers
Music City Bowl - Duke Blue Devils vs Ole Miss Rebels
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl - Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Northwestern Wildcats
Sun Bowl - Arizona Wildcats vs Virginia Tech Hokies
Liberty Bowl - UCF Golden Knights vs Tennessee Volunteers
Chick-Fil-A Bowl - Texas A&M Aggies vs Clemson Tigers
Heart of Dallas Bowl - SMU Mustangs vs Iowa Hawkeyes
Capital One Bowl - Michigan Wolverines vs LSU Tigers
Outback Bowl - Wisconsin Badgers vs Georgia Bulldogs
Gator Bowl - South Carolina Gamecocks vs Michigan State Spartans
Cotton Bowl - Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Oklahoma Sooners
BBVA Compass Bowl - Bowling Green Falcons vs Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
GoDaddy Bowl - Ohio Bobcats vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Rose Bowl - Oregon State Beavers vs Nebraska Cornhuskers
Orange Bowl - Florida State Seminoles vs Louisville Cardinals
Fiesta Bowl - Kansas State Wildcats vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Sugar Bowl - Florida Gators vs Boise State Broncos
BCS National Championship - Oregon Ducks vs Alabama Crimson Tide
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl - Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs Kent State Golden Flash
Poinsettia Bowl - Nevada Wolfpack vs BYU Cougars
Beef O'Brady's Bowl - Toledo Rockets vs Marshall Thundering Herd
New Orleans Bowl - East Carolina Pirates vs Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
Las Vegas Bowl - Fresno State Bulldogs vs Stanford Cardinals
Hawaii Bowl - San Diego State Aztecs vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Little Caesars Bowl - Northern Illinois Huskies vs Arkansas State Redwolves
Military Bowl - Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders vs Ball State Cardinals
Belk Bowl - Miami Hurricanes vs Cincinnati Bearcats
Holiday Bowl - UCLA Bruins vs Oklahoma State Cowboys
Russell Athletic Bowl - Rutgers Scarlett Knights vs North Carolina State Wolfpack
Independence Bowl - Vanderbilt Commodores vs Utah State Aggies
Texas Bowl - Texas Longhorns vs Minnesota Golden Gophers
Armed Forces Bowl - Houston Cougars vs Air Force Falcons
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl - Arizona State Sun Devils vs Navy Midshipmen
Alamo Bowl - USC Trojans vs West Virginia Mountaineers
Pinstripe Bowl - Iowa State Cyclones vs Pittsburgh Panthers
Music City Bowl - Duke Blue Devils vs Ole Miss Rebels
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl - Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Northwestern Wildcats
Sun Bowl - Arizona Wildcats vs Virginia Tech Hokies
Liberty Bowl - UCF Golden Knights vs Tennessee Volunteers
Chick-Fil-A Bowl - Texas A&M Aggies vs Clemson Tigers
Heart of Dallas Bowl - SMU Mustangs vs Iowa Hawkeyes
Capital One Bowl - Michigan Wolverines vs LSU Tigers
Outback Bowl - Wisconsin Badgers vs Georgia Bulldogs
Gator Bowl - South Carolina Gamecocks vs Michigan State Spartans
Cotton Bowl - Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Oklahoma Sooners
BBVA Compass Bowl - Bowling Green Falcons vs Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
GoDaddy Bowl - Ohio Bobcats vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Rose Bowl - Oregon State Beavers vs Nebraska Cornhuskers
Orange Bowl - Florida State Seminoles vs Louisville Cardinals
Fiesta Bowl - Kansas State Wildcats vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Sugar Bowl - Florida Gators vs Boise State Broncos
BCS National Championship - Oregon Ducks vs Alabama Crimson Tide
Saturday, October 27, 2012
College Football 2012 - Week 9 Preview
Abridged version this week due to work.
Each week, I take a look at the week ahead, including games, upsets and players to watch for. I have also added a guide to the best/most intriguing games of the week.
Big 10
What I am watching:
Ohio State at Penn State - Which probation team emerges still unblemished in the Big 10?
Michigan at Nebraska - Who takes control of the Legends Division at mid-season?
Michigan State at Wisconsin - Can the Badgers continue their momentum and keep Sparty reeling?
Iowa at Northwestern - Will the Wildcats pull one out against an upper-echelon team or will the Hawkeyes emerge as a chief challenger in the Legends?
Upset alert: Michigan over Nebraska. The Wolverines are underdogs going to Lincoln but thrashed Nebraska 45-17 in Ann Arbor a year ago. The Cornhusker run defense will be tested by Denard Robinson and the suddenly stingy Michigan defense will try to shutdown a Burkhead-less attack. Last week: Northwestern over Nebraska (should have been none).
Player on the spot: Taylor Martinez, QB, Nebraska. Martinez needs to outplay Robinson and solve the tough Michigan defense. Martinez was held to 171 total yards in the meeting last year while completing only 9 of 23 passes. Last week: Denard Robinson, QB, Michigan - 14-29, 163 yards, 20 carries, 96 yards, 0 TD, 1 Int in a 12-10 victory over Michigan State.
ACC
What I am watching:
NC State at North Carolina - Can the Wolfpack continue to win close games and stay in the race for the Atlantic Division Title?
Duke at Florida State - Will surprising Duke be able to hang with the Seminoles at all?
Upset alert: NC State over North Carolina. Last week: Wake Forest over Virginia (should have been Wake Forest over Virginia or Duke over North Carolina)
Player on the spot: Mike Glennon, QB, NC State. Last week: Tajh Boyd, QB, Clemson - 12-21, 160 yards, 3 TD (2 rushing), 1 Int in a 38-17 win over Virginia Tech.
SEC
What I am watching:
Florida vs Georgia - Does anybody even realize the Dawgs take over first in the SEC East with a win?
Mississippi State at Alabama - Will the Bulldogs suffer the fate of all Tide opponents?
Upset alert: Ole Miss over Arkansas. Last week: Texas A&M over LSU and South Carolina over Florida (should have been None).
Player on the spot: Aaron Murray, QB, Georgia Last week: Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M - 29-56, 276 yards, 0 TD, 3 Int, 25 yards rushing in a 24-19 loss to LSU.
Big 12
What I am watching:
TCU at Oklahoma State - Is this the game that can get the Horned Frogs bowl-eligible?
Texas Tech at Kansas State - Are the Red Raiders a giant-killer or pretender?
Notre Dame at Oklahoma - Have the Sooners turned the corner or will the luck of the Irish continue?
Upset alert: Baylor over Iowa State. Last week: Kansas State over West Virginia (should have been Kansas State over West Virginia).
Player on the spot: Seth Doege, QB, Texas Tech. Last week: Nick Florence, QB, Baylor - 30-41, 352 yards, 11 carries, 69 yards, 4 TD (2 rushing) in a 56-50 loss to Texas.
PAC-12
What I am watching:
UCLA at Arizona State - Who emerges as USC's prime challenger in the PAC-12 South?
USC at Arizona - Can the Wildcats offense keep up with the Trojans in the battle of the Matts?
Oregon State at Washington - Will the Beavers dream season be derailed when nobody is expecting it?
Upset alert: Arizona over USC. Last week: Cal over Stanford (should have been none).
Player on the spot: Taylor Kelly, QB, Arizona State. Last week: D'Anthony Thomas, RB/WR, Oregon - 15 touches for 29 yards in a 43-21 win over Arizona State.
Big East
What I am watching:
Louisville 34, Cincinnati 31, OT. The Cardinals survive and point toward the Rutgers game.
Kent State at Rutgers - Can the MAC slay the Big East again in 2012?
Upset alert: Temple over Pittsburgh. Last week: Toledo over Cincinnati (should have been Toledo over Cincinnati).
Player in the spotlight: Jawan Jamison, RB, Rutgers. Last week: B.J. Daniels, QB, South Florida - 21-38, 189 yards, 3 TD, 1 Int in a 27-25 loss to Louisville.
Non-BCS Conferences
What I am watching: I am always watching for how many victories the Non-BCS schools can accumulate against the BCS conferences. Ohio, Nevada, Colorado State, Utah State, Louisiana-Monroe, Rice, Western Kentucky, Ball State, Fresno State, Central Michigan, Western Michigan, Northern Illinois, Ball State(again), Louisiana Tech, Louisiana Tech(again) and Middle Tennessee State have done it the first five weeks with the victories over Penn State, California, Colorado, Utah, Arkansas, Kansas, Kentucky, Indiana, Colorado(again), Iowa, Connecticut, Kansas(again), South Florida, Illinois, Virginia and Georgia Tech, respectively. Last season the total was 15. The chances are dwindling as the non-conference season slows, but which games this week might add to the current 17? This week there are two chances...Kent State at Rutgers and Massachusetts at Vanderbilt. Ok, there is really just one.
Upset alert: North Texas over Middle Tennessee. Last week: Marshall over Southern Mississippi (should have been Marshall over Southern Mississippi).
Players on the spot: Jordan Lynch, QB, Northern Illinois. Last week: Stepfon Jefferson, RB, Nevada - 32 carries, 108 yards, 1 TD in a 39-38 loss to San Diego State.
Each week, I take a look at the week ahead, including games, upsets and players to watch for. I have also added a guide to the best/most intriguing games of the week.
Big 10
What I am watching:
Ohio State at Penn State - Which probation team emerges still unblemished in the Big 10?
Michigan at Nebraska - Who takes control of the Legends Division at mid-season?
Michigan State at Wisconsin - Can the Badgers continue their momentum and keep Sparty reeling?
Iowa at Northwestern - Will the Wildcats pull one out against an upper-echelon team or will the Hawkeyes emerge as a chief challenger in the Legends?
Upset alert: Michigan over Nebraska. The Wolverines are underdogs going to Lincoln but thrashed Nebraska 45-17 in Ann Arbor a year ago. The Cornhusker run defense will be tested by Denard Robinson and the suddenly stingy Michigan defense will try to shutdown a Burkhead-less attack. Last week: Northwestern over Nebraska (should have been none).
Player on the spot: Taylor Martinez, QB, Nebraska. Martinez needs to outplay Robinson and solve the tough Michigan defense. Martinez was held to 171 total yards in the meeting last year while completing only 9 of 23 passes. Last week: Denard Robinson, QB, Michigan - 14-29, 163 yards, 20 carries, 96 yards, 0 TD, 1 Int in a 12-10 victory over Michigan State.
ACC
What I am watching:
NC State at North Carolina - Can the Wolfpack continue to win close games and stay in the race for the Atlantic Division Title?
Duke at Florida State - Will surprising Duke be able to hang with the Seminoles at all?
Upset alert: NC State over North Carolina. Last week: Wake Forest over Virginia (should have been Wake Forest over Virginia or Duke over North Carolina)
Player on the spot: Mike Glennon, QB, NC State. Last week: Tajh Boyd, QB, Clemson - 12-21, 160 yards, 3 TD (2 rushing), 1 Int in a 38-17 win over Virginia Tech.
SEC
What I am watching:
Florida vs Georgia - Does anybody even realize the Dawgs take over first in the SEC East with a win?
Mississippi State at Alabama - Will the Bulldogs suffer the fate of all Tide opponents?
Upset alert: Ole Miss over Arkansas. Last week: Texas A&M over LSU and South Carolina over Florida (should have been None).
Player on the spot: Aaron Murray, QB, Georgia Last week: Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M - 29-56, 276 yards, 0 TD, 3 Int, 25 yards rushing in a 24-19 loss to LSU.
Big 12
What I am watching:
TCU at Oklahoma State - Is this the game that can get the Horned Frogs bowl-eligible?
Texas Tech at Kansas State - Are the Red Raiders a giant-killer or pretender?
Notre Dame at Oklahoma - Have the Sooners turned the corner or will the luck of the Irish continue?
Upset alert: Baylor over Iowa State. Last week: Kansas State over West Virginia (should have been Kansas State over West Virginia).
Player on the spot: Seth Doege, QB, Texas Tech. Last week: Nick Florence, QB, Baylor - 30-41, 352 yards, 11 carries, 69 yards, 4 TD (2 rushing) in a 56-50 loss to Texas.
PAC-12
What I am watching:
UCLA at Arizona State - Who emerges as USC's prime challenger in the PAC-12 South?
USC at Arizona - Can the Wildcats offense keep up with the Trojans in the battle of the Matts?
Oregon State at Washington - Will the Beavers dream season be derailed when nobody is expecting it?
Upset alert: Arizona over USC. Last week: Cal over Stanford (should have been none).
Player on the spot: Taylor Kelly, QB, Arizona State. Last week: D'Anthony Thomas, RB/WR, Oregon - 15 touches for 29 yards in a 43-21 win over Arizona State.
Big East
What I am watching:
Louisville 34, Cincinnati 31, OT. The Cardinals survive and point toward the Rutgers game.
Kent State at Rutgers - Can the MAC slay the Big East again in 2012?
Upset alert: Temple over Pittsburgh. Last week: Toledo over Cincinnati (should have been Toledo over Cincinnati).
Player in the spotlight: Jawan Jamison, RB, Rutgers. Last week: B.J. Daniels, QB, South Florida - 21-38, 189 yards, 3 TD, 1 Int in a 27-25 loss to Louisville.
Non-BCS Conferences
What I am watching: I am always watching for how many victories the Non-BCS schools can accumulate against the BCS conferences. Ohio, Nevada, Colorado State, Utah State, Louisiana-Monroe, Rice, Western Kentucky, Ball State, Fresno State, Central Michigan, Western Michigan, Northern Illinois, Ball State(again), Louisiana Tech, Louisiana Tech(again) and Middle Tennessee State have done it the first five weeks with the victories over Penn State, California, Colorado, Utah, Arkansas, Kansas, Kentucky, Indiana, Colorado(again), Iowa, Connecticut, Kansas(again), South Florida, Illinois, Virginia and Georgia Tech, respectively. Last season the total was 15. The chances are dwindling as the non-conference season slows, but which games this week might add to the current 17? This week there are two chances...Kent State at Rutgers and Massachusetts at Vanderbilt. Ok, there is really just one.
Upset alert: North Texas over Middle Tennessee. Last week: Marshall over Southern Mississippi (should have been Marshall over Southern Mississippi).
Players on the spot: Jordan Lynch, QB, Northern Illinois. Last week: Stepfon Jefferson, RB, Nevada - 32 carries, 108 yards, 1 TD in a 39-38 loss to San Diego State.
Thursday, October 25, 2012
College Football 2012 - Week 9 Jabesblog Picks
Instead of picking every game straight up this year, I thought I would go more Vegas-style and select certain games each week to pick against the spread. Last weeks record: 7-4. Season record: 43-29-2. Lock of the Week: 6-2.
Lock of the Week: Ball State -3.5 at Army. The Cardinals are playing like MAC contenders and are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games. Army stays in games because of their unique style, but also struggles to come from behind. This is a better Ball State team than the one that beat Army 48-21 a year ago...Ball State 48, Army 21.
Closer Than You Think Game of the Week: Mississippi State +24 at Alabama. The Bulldogs come in with an equivalent unblemished record, but nobody thinks they are going to hang with the Crimson Tide. Not so fast...Mississippi State is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games on grass and Alabama is just 2-6 in their last 8 on grass. The grass game also favors the under, which makes a blowout win harder. The Bulldogs lead the FBS in turnover margin and Alabama is due for one or two that keep the game close for a while...Alabama 27, Mississippi State 14.
Old Standby Pick of the Week: Louisiana-Monroe -22 vs South Alabama. ULM got back on my winning side last week, bringing them to 6-1 ATS for me this year. This week, they face off against an over-matched South Alabama team, but one that plays decent defense that makes 22 points a little scary. The Jaguars have covered their last 5 road trips, including two against NC State and one against Mississippi State. ULM needs to give them a welcome to the Sun Belt game this week...Louisiana-Monroe 43, South Alabama 10.
I Get How Many Points? Game of the Week: Colorado +45.5 at Oregon. This game will not be close. It could end up 70-0. There are just so many variables though, and that is why Oregon is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games where they were favored by over 30 points. The Ducks called off the dogs last week and will likely do so again this week. Just in time for a Colorado cover...Oregon 57, Colorado 14.
Bonus MAC 4-pack of the Week: Northern Illinois -8 at Western Michigan. The Huskies are starting to look like the best team in the MAC and the Broncos are not on par with the MAC elite, as evidenced by their 0-3 record against Toledo, Ball State and Kent State by a combined 43 points. Northern Illinois is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meeting between the two and has won their last 4 games by an average of 28.75 points...Northern Illinois 34, Western Michigan 17.
Kent State +13.5 at Rutgers. The MAC has been a thorn in the side of the Big East all season and this one is another opportunity for an upper tier MAC team to show it can play with the big boys. The Scarlett Knights defense is stifling, but Kent State's is rounding into form as well. I don't see an upset here, but I will take the points in a fairly low-scoring affair...Rutgers 20, Kent State 13.
Toledo -7.5 at Buffalo. Another one of the upper-division MAC teams takes on a lower-division team. The Rockets are coming off an upset of Cincinnati and all the spread trends favor them in this match-up. Buffalo struggles to score at times and if they fall behind, it can get out of hand...Toledo 31, Buffalo 17.
Akron +7 at Central Michigan. A team that is 2-5 and has only covered 4 of their past 27 games is giving away 7 points. I will take them even though Akron is 1-7. The Zips have covered 4 times this year and have been playing better than the Chippewas as of late...Central Michigan 38, Akron 35.
Other Games:
Nevada -3.5 at Air Force. The Falcons are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games and get a visit from Nevada who is 4-0 on the road. The Wolfpack will be looking to get back on track after stubbing their toe at home against San Diego State last week and Stefphon Jefferson and Cody Fajardo are a match-up nightmare for Air Force...Nevada 42, Air Force 21.
NC State +7.5 at North Carolina. The underdog is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings and NC State has won 5 straight overall in this rivalry. The Wolfpack are also playing to stay in the hunt for a Division title, something the Tar Heels are ineligible for this season. It also seems like every NC State game comes down to the last play...NC State 24, North Carolina 23.
Baylor +2.5 at Iowa State. The Cyclone defense showed some chinks last week, and their star linebackers can be negated by Baylor's spread passing attack. I don't see how Iowa State can keep up in this one once Nick Florence gets cooking...Baylor 45, Iowa State 24.
Lock of the Week: Ball State -3.5 at Army. The Cardinals are playing like MAC contenders and are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games. Army stays in games because of their unique style, but also struggles to come from behind. This is a better Ball State team than the one that beat Army 48-21 a year ago...Ball State 48, Army 21.
Closer Than You Think Game of the Week: Mississippi State +24 at Alabama. The Bulldogs come in with an equivalent unblemished record, but nobody thinks they are going to hang with the Crimson Tide. Not so fast...Mississippi State is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games on grass and Alabama is just 2-6 in their last 8 on grass. The grass game also favors the under, which makes a blowout win harder. The Bulldogs lead the FBS in turnover margin and Alabama is due for one or two that keep the game close for a while...Alabama 27, Mississippi State 14.
Old Standby Pick of the Week: Louisiana-Monroe -22 vs South Alabama. ULM got back on my winning side last week, bringing them to 6-1 ATS for me this year. This week, they face off against an over-matched South Alabama team, but one that plays decent defense that makes 22 points a little scary. The Jaguars have covered their last 5 road trips, including two against NC State and one against Mississippi State. ULM needs to give them a welcome to the Sun Belt game this week...Louisiana-Monroe 43, South Alabama 10.
I Get How Many Points? Game of the Week: Colorado +45.5 at Oregon. This game will not be close. It could end up 70-0. There are just so many variables though, and that is why Oregon is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games where they were favored by over 30 points. The Ducks called off the dogs last week and will likely do so again this week. Just in time for a Colorado cover...Oregon 57, Colorado 14.
Bonus MAC 4-pack of the Week: Northern Illinois -8 at Western Michigan. The Huskies are starting to look like the best team in the MAC and the Broncos are not on par with the MAC elite, as evidenced by their 0-3 record against Toledo, Ball State and Kent State by a combined 43 points. Northern Illinois is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meeting between the two and has won their last 4 games by an average of 28.75 points...Northern Illinois 34, Western Michigan 17.
Kent State +13.5 at Rutgers. The MAC has been a thorn in the side of the Big East all season and this one is another opportunity for an upper tier MAC team to show it can play with the big boys. The Scarlett Knights defense is stifling, but Kent State's is rounding into form as well. I don't see an upset here, but I will take the points in a fairly low-scoring affair...Rutgers 20, Kent State 13.
Toledo -7.5 at Buffalo. Another one of the upper-division MAC teams takes on a lower-division team. The Rockets are coming off an upset of Cincinnati and all the spread trends favor them in this match-up. Buffalo struggles to score at times and if they fall behind, it can get out of hand...Toledo 31, Buffalo 17.
Akron +7 at Central Michigan. A team that is 2-5 and has only covered 4 of their past 27 games is giving away 7 points. I will take them even though Akron is 1-7. The Zips have covered 4 times this year and have been playing better than the Chippewas as of late...Central Michigan 38, Akron 35.
Other Games:
Nevada -3.5 at Air Force. The Falcons are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games and get a visit from Nevada who is 4-0 on the road. The Wolfpack will be looking to get back on track after stubbing their toe at home against San Diego State last week and Stefphon Jefferson and Cody Fajardo are a match-up nightmare for Air Force...Nevada 42, Air Force 21.
NC State +7.5 at North Carolina. The underdog is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings and NC State has won 5 straight overall in this rivalry. The Wolfpack are also playing to stay in the hunt for a Division title, something the Tar Heels are ineligible for this season. It also seems like every NC State game comes down to the last play...NC State 24, North Carolina 23.
Baylor +2.5 at Iowa State. The Cyclone defense showed some chinks last week, and their star linebackers can be negated by Baylor's spread passing attack. I don't see how Iowa State can keep up in this one once Nick Florence gets cooking...Baylor 45, Iowa State 24.
Monday, October 22, 2012
College Football 2012 - Week 8 Bowl Bubble Watch
PAC-12
Washington (3-4) - Oregon State (L), at California (L), Utah (W), at Colorado (W), at Washington State (W), projected record 6-6 (the next 2 weeks are big so the Huskies aren't forced to win three in a row)
Arizona (4-3) - USC (L), at UCLA (L), Colorado (W), at Utah (W), Arizona State (L), projected record 6-6 (with a home game vs Colorado, the Wildcats just need to find one other victory)
California (3-5) - at Utah (W), Washington (W), Oregon (L), at Oregon State (L), projected record 5-7 (the loser of the game against Utah this week is realistically eliminated from bowl contention)
Utah (2-5) - California (L), Washington State (W), at Washington (L), Arizona (L), at Colorado (W), projected record 4-8 (it doesn't look good for the Utes this year)
PAC-12 Reset:
1. Oregon Ducks (BCS National Title Game)
2. USC Trojans (Rose Bowl)
3. Oregon State Beavers (Alamo Bowl)
4. Stanford Cardinal (Sun Bowl)
5. Arizona State Sun Devils (Holiday Bowl)
6. UCLA Bruins (Las Vegas Bowl)
7. Arizona Wildcats (New Mexico Bowl)
8. Washington Huskies (Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl)
9. California Golden Bears
10. Utah Utes
11. Washington State Cougars
12. Colorado Buffaloes
Big 10
Note: Many Bowl Projections are leaving 8 Big Ten Teams in this week. I am going with 7, as you see right now I am moving the Golden Gophers out this week.
Michigan State (4-4) - at Wisconsin (L), Nebraska (W), Northwestern (W), at Minnesota (W), projected record 7-5 (staring at 4-5, the Nebraska game could make or break the season)
Iowa (4-3) - at Northwestern (L), at Indiana (W), Purdue (W), at Michigan (L), Nebraska (L), projected record 6-6 (back to being squarely on the bubble, an upset at Northwestern would make things more comfortable)
Purdue (3-4) - at Minnesota (W), Penn State (L), at Iowa (L), at Illinois (W), Indiana (W) - projected record 6-6 (a huge game with Minnesota this week that could be a bowl elimination game)
Minnesota (4-3) - at Purdue (L), Michigan (L), at Illinois (W), at Nebraska (L), Michigan State (L), projected record 5-7 (with their two best shots at winning being on the road, it looks like another year home for the holidays for the Gophers)
Big 10 Reset:
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
2. Penn State Nittany Lions
3. Michigan Wolverines (Rose Bowl)
4. Nebraska Cornhuskers (Capital One Bowl*)
5. Wisconsin Badgers (Outback Bowl*)
6. Northwestern Wildcats (Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl)
7. Iowa Hawkeyes (Gator Bowl)
8. Michigan State Spartans (Texas Bowl)
9. Purdue Boilermakes (Heart of Dallas Bowl)
10. Minnesota Golden Gophers
11. Indiana Hoosiers
12. Illinois Fighting Illini
(currently not filling Little Caesars bowl slot)
*Nebraska and Wisconsin's bowl is determined by avoiding a Nebraska/South Carolina bowl rematch from last year
SEC
Note: Other Bowl Projections still have as many as 11 SEC teams bowl-eligible. As you see below, there is a good chance that number gets to 10, but 11 is a stretch unless there are big upsets.
Tennessee (3-4) - at South Carolina (L), Troy (W), Missouri (W), at Vanderbilt (W), Kentucky (W), projected record 7-5 (the Vols are included because they are staring 3-5 straight in the face. With Troy and Kentucky at home, it really comes down to splitting the Missouri/Vandy games.)
Vanderbilt (3-4) - Massachusetts (W), at Kentucky (W), at Ole Miss (L), Tennessee (L), at Wake Forest (W) - projected record 6-6 (a close win against Auburn leads into two winnable games upcoming, which would leave them only needing one of the last three)
Missouri (3-4) - Kentucky (W), at Florida (L), at Tennessee (L), Syracuse (W), at Texas A&M (L), projected record 5-7 (the game at Tennessee will be a huge game for both teams, but Missouri just hasn't been healthy enough to compete in the SEC this season)
Arkansas (3-4) - Ole Miss (W), Tulsa (W), at South Carolina (L), at Mississippi State (L), LSU (L), projected record 5-7 (Arkansas is playing better, but they likely need an upset at Mississippi State to get to 6-6)
Ole Miss (4-3) - at Arkansas (L), at Georgia (L), Vanderbilt (W), at LSU (L), Mississippi State (L), projected record 5-7 (it is still hard to say if the Rebels are ready for this step, but this week's game at Arkansas looms large)
SEC Reset:
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (BCS National Title Game)
2. Florida Gators (Sugar Bowl)
3. LSU Tigers (Capital One Bowl)
4. Mississippi State Bulldogs (Cotton Bowl)
5. South Carolina Gamecocks (Outback Bowl)
6. Georgia Bulldogs (Chick Fil-A Bowl)
7. Texas A&M Aggies (Gator Bowl)
8. Tennessee Volunteers (Music City Bowl)
9. Vanderbilt Commodores (Liberty Bowl)
10. Ole Miss Rebels
11. Arkansas Razorbacks
12. Missouri Tigers
13. Auburn Tigers
14. Kentucky Wildcats
(currently not filling Independence or BBVA Compass bowl slots)
Big 12
Note: Projecting 7 teams in from the Big 12, but the likelihood of an 8th is still there. TCU is a good team with a brutal finishing schedule.
Oklahoma State (4-2) - TCU (W), at Kansas State (L), West Virginia (L), Texas Tech (W), at Oklahoma (L), at Baylor (L), projected record 6-6 (The Cowboys looked pretty good this week, but the schedule remains an obstacle)
TCU (5-2) - at Oklahoma State (L), at West Virginia (L), Kansas State (L), at Texas (L), Oklahoma (L), projected record 5-7 (only need one more win, but who are they going to beat?)
Baylor (3-3) - at Iowa State (W), Kansas (W), at Oklahoma (L), Kansas State (L), Texas Tech (L), Oklahoma State (W) - projected record 6-6 (I am not sure how they beat both Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, so a win at Iowa State this week might be a necessity)
Iowa State (4-3) - Baylor (L), Oklahoma (L), at Texas (L), at Kansas (W), West Virginia (L), projected record 5-7 (pivotal game vs Baylor this week, with the loser in great danger of missing a bowl)
Big 12 Reset:
1. Kansas State Wildcats (Fiesta Bowl)
2. Oklahoma Sooners (Sugar Bowl)
3. Texas Tech Red Raiders (Alamo Bowl)
4. Texas Longhorns (Cotton Bowl)
5. West Virginia Mountaineers (Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl)
6. Oklahoma State Cowboys (Holiday Bowl)
7. Baylor Bears (Texas Bowl)
8. TCU Horned Frogs
9. Iowa State Cyclones
10. Kansas Jayhawks
(currently not filling Pinstripe Bowl slot)
ACC
Virginia Tech (4-4) - at Miami FL (L), Florida State (L), at Boston College (W), Virginia (W), projected record 6-6 (could easily win at Miami, FL this week and earn some breathing room)
Maryland (4-3) - at Boston College (W), Georgia Tech (W), at Clemson (L), Florida State (L), at North Carolina (L), projected record 6-6 (if they lose to BC or Georgia Tech, things will get tough)
Georgia Tech (3-4) - BYU (W), at Maryland (L), at North Carolina (L), Duke (W), at Georgia (L), projected record 5-7 (beating BYU and Maryland will give them their best chance)
Wake Forest (4-3) - Clemson (L), Boston College (W), at NC State (L), at Notre Dame (L), Vanderbilt (L), projected record 5-7 (BC is one, where is the other?)
ACC Reset
1. Florida State Seminoles (Orange Bowl)
2. Clemson Tigers (Chick Fil-A Bowl)
3. North Carolina State Wolfpack (Russell Athletic Bowl)
4. North Carolina Tar Heels
5. Miami Hurricanes (Belk Bowl)
6. Virginia Tech Hokies (Sun Bowl)
7. Duke Blue Devils (Music City Bowl)
8. Maryland Terrapins (Independence Bowl)
9. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
10. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
11. Virginia Cavaliers
12. Boston College Eagles
(currently not filling Military Bowl slot)
Big East
Pittsburgh (3-4) - Temple (W), at Notre Dame (L), at Connecticut (W), Rutgers (L), at South Florida (W), projected record 6-6 (I am giving Pitt the benefit of the doubt, but they have no margin for error)
Temple (3-3) - at Pittsburgh (L), at Louisville (L), Cincinnati (L), at Army (W), Syracuse (W), projected record 5-6 (This weeks game at Pittsburgh may likely determine the 4th bowl slot from the Big East.)
South Florida (2-5) - Syracuse (W), Connecticut (W), at Miami FL (L), at Cincinnati (L), Pittsburgh (L), projected record 4-8 (It's now or never for the Bulls in 2012)
Big East Reset:
1. Rutgers Scarlett Knights (Orange Bowl)
2. Louisville Cardinals (Russell Athletic Bowl)
3. Cincinnati Bearcats (Belk Bowl)
4. Pittsburgh Panthers (Pinstripe Bowl)
5. Temple Owls
6. South Florida Bulls
7. Syracuse Orange
8. Connecticut Huskies
(currently not filling BBVA Compass Bowl or Beef O'Brady's Bowl slots)
Other Conferences/Independents
Houston (3-4) - UTEP (W), at East Carolina (W), Tulsa (L), at Marshall (L), Tulane (W). projected record 6-6
Marshall (3-4) - UCF (L), Memphis(W), at UAB (W), Houston (W), at East Carolina (L), projected record 6-6
SMU (3-4) - Memphis (W), at UCF (L), Southern Miss (W), at Rice (W), Tulsa (L), projected record 6-6
Bowling Green (5-3) - Eastern Michigan (W), at Ohio (L), Kent State (L), Buffalo (W), projected record 7-5 (likely gets bowl-eligible this week)
Ball State (5-3) - at Army (W), at Toledo (L), Ohio (L), at Miami(OH) (L), projected record 6-6
Western Michigan (3-5) - Northern Illinois (L), at Central Michigan (W), at Buffalo (W), Eastern Michigan (W), projected record 6-6
Miami(OH) (3-4) - Ohio (L), at Buffalo (W), Kent State (L), at Central Michigan (L), Ball State (W), projected record 5-7
Central Michigan (2-5) - Akron (W), Western Michigan (L), at Eastern Michigan (W), Miami(OH) (W), at UMass (W), projected record 6-6
Air Force (4-3) - Nevada (L), at Army (W), at San Diego State (L), Hawaii (W), at Fresno State (L), projected record 6-6
New Mexico (4-4) - Fresno State (L), at UNLV (L), Wyoming (W), Nevada (L), at Colorado State (W), projected record 6-7
Arkansas State (4-3) - at LA-Lafayette (L), at North Texas (W), LA-Monroe (L), at Troy (W), Middle Tennessee (W), projected record 7-5
Troy (4-3) - at Florida Atlantic (W), at Tennessee (L), Navy (L), Arkansas State (L), at Middle Tennessee (L), projected record 5-7
San Jose State (5-2) - Texas State (W), at Idaho (W), at New Mexico State (W), BYU (L), Louisiana Tech (L), projected record 8-4
Navy (4-3) - at East Carolina (L), Florida Atlantic (W), at Troy (W), Texas State (W), Army (W), projected record 8-4
Other Conferences/Independents Reset:
1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Fiesta Bowl)
2. Ohio Bobcats (Little Caesars Bowl)
3. Boise State Broncos (Las Vegas Bowl)
4. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl)
5. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (Liberty Bowl)
6. Northern Illinois Huskies (GoDaddy.com Bowl)
7. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (New Orleans Bowl)
8. Toledo Rockets (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl)
9. Nevada Wolfpack (Poinsettia Bowl)
10. Kent State Golden Flash (Beef O'Brady's Bowl**)
11. Utah State Aggies (Independence Bowl**)
12. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (GoDaddy.com Bowl)
13. UCF Golden Knights (Armed Forces Bowl)
14. Fresno State Bulldogs (Hawaii Bowl)
15. San Diego State Aztecs (New Mexico Bowl)
16. BYU Cougars (Poinsettia Bowl)
17. East Carolina Pirates (New Orleans Bowl)
18. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (BBVA Compass Bowl**)
19. Middle Tennesse State Blue Raiders (Pinstripe Bowl**)
Other Projected Bowl Eligible Teams:
Marshall Thundering Herd (Beef O'Brady's Bowl)
Houston Cougars (Hawaii Bowl)
SMU Mustangs (Heart of Dallas Bowl)
Air Force Falcons (Armed Forces Bowl)
Navy Midshipmen (Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl)
Bowling Green Falcons (BBVA Compass Bowl**)
Ball State Cardinals (Military Bowl**)
Arkansas State (Military Bowl**)
San Jose State (Little Caesars Bowl**)
Washington (3-4) - Oregon State (L), at California (L), Utah (W), at Colorado (W), at Washington State (W), projected record 6-6 (the next 2 weeks are big so the Huskies aren't forced to win three in a row)
Arizona (4-3) - USC (L), at UCLA (L), Colorado (W), at Utah (W), Arizona State (L), projected record 6-6 (with a home game vs Colorado, the Wildcats just need to find one other victory)
California (3-5) - at Utah (W), Washington (W), Oregon (L), at Oregon State (L), projected record 5-7 (the loser of the game against Utah this week is realistically eliminated from bowl contention)
Utah (2-5) - California (L), Washington State (W), at Washington (L), Arizona (L), at Colorado (W), projected record 4-8 (it doesn't look good for the Utes this year)
PAC-12 Reset:
1. Oregon Ducks (BCS National Title Game)
2. USC Trojans (Rose Bowl)
3. Oregon State Beavers (Alamo Bowl)
4. Stanford Cardinal (Sun Bowl)
5. Arizona State Sun Devils (Holiday Bowl)
6. UCLA Bruins (Las Vegas Bowl)
7. Arizona Wildcats (New Mexico Bowl)
8. Washington Huskies (Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl)
9. California Golden Bears
10. Utah Utes
11. Washington State Cougars
12. Colorado Buffaloes
Big 10
Note: Many Bowl Projections are leaving 8 Big Ten Teams in this week. I am going with 7, as you see right now I am moving the Golden Gophers out this week.
Michigan State (4-4) - at Wisconsin (L), Nebraska (W), Northwestern (W), at Minnesota (W), projected record 7-5 (staring at 4-5, the Nebraska game could make or break the season)
Iowa (4-3) - at Northwestern (L), at Indiana (W), Purdue (W), at Michigan (L), Nebraska (L), projected record 6-6 (back to being squarely on the bubble, an upset at Northwestern would make things more comfortable)
Purdue (3-4) - at Minnesota (W), Penn State (L), at Iowa (L), at Illinois (W), Indiana (W) - projected record 6-6 (a huge game with Minnesota this week that could be a bowl elimination game)
Minnesota (4-3) - at Purdue (L), Michigan (L), at Illinois (W), at Nebraska (L), Michigan State (L), projected record 5-7 (with their two best shots at winning being on the road, it looks like another year home for the holidays for the Gophers)
Big 10 Reset:
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
2. Penn State Nittany Lions
3. Michigan Wolverines (Rose Bowl)
4. Nebraska Cornhuskers (Capital One Bowl*)
5. Wisconsin Badgers (Outback Bowl*)
6. Northwestern Wildcats (Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl)
7. Iowa Hawkeyes (Gator Bowl)
8. Michigan State Spartans (Texas Bowl)
9. Purdue Boilermakes (Heart of Dallas Bowl)
10. Minnesota Golden Gophers
11. Indiana Hoosiers
12. Illinois Fighting Illini
(currently not filling Little Caesars bowl slot)
*Nebraska and Wisconsin's bowl is determined by avoiding a Nebraska/South Carolina bowl rematch from last year
SEC
Note: Other Bowl Projections still have as many as 11 SEC teams bowl-eligible. As you see below, there is a good chance that number gets to 10, but 11 is a stretch unless there are big upsets.
Tennessee (3-4) - at South Carolina (L), Troy (W), Missouri (W), at Vanderbilt (W), Kentucky (W), projected record 7-5 (the Vols are included because they are staring 3-5 straight in the face. With Troy and Kentucky at home, it really comes down to splitting the Missouri/Vandy games.)
Vanderbilt (3-4) - Massachusetts (W), at Kentucky (W), at Ole Miss (L), Tennessee (L), at Wake Forest (W) - projected record 6-6 (a close win against Auburn leads into two winnable games upcoming, which would leave them only needing one of the last three)
Missouri (3-4) - Kentucky (W), at Florida (L), at Tennessee (L), Syracuse (W), at Texas A&M (L), projected record 5-7 (the game at Tennessee will be a huge game for both teams, but Missouri just hasn't been healthy enough to compete in the SEC this season)
Arkansas (3-4) - Ole Miss (W), Tulsa (W), at South Carolina (L), at Mississippi State (L), LSU (L), projected record 5-7 (Arkansas is playing better, but they likely need an upset at Mississippi State to get to 6-6)
Ole Miss (4-3) - at Arkansas (L), at Georgia (L), Vanderbilt (W), at LSU (L), Mississippi State (L), projected record 5-7 (it is still hard to say if the Rebels are ready for this step, but this week's game at Arkansas looms large)
SEC Reset:
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (BCS National Title Game)
2. Florida Gators (Sugar Bowl)
3. LSU Tigers (Capital One Bowl)
4. Mississippi State Bulldogs (Cotton Bowl)
5. South Carolina Gamecocks (Outback Bowl)
6. Georgia Bulldogs (Chick Fil-A Bowl)
7. Texas A&M Aggies (Gator Bowl)
8. Tennessee Volunteers (Music City Bowl)
9. Vanderbilt Commodores (Liberty Bowl)
10. Ole Miss Rebels
11. Arkansas Razorbacks
12. Missouri Tigers
13. Auburn Tigers
14. Kentucky Wildcats
(currently not filling Independence or BBVA Compass bowl slots)
Big 12
Note: Projecting 7 teams in from the Big 12, but the likelihood of an 8th is still there. TCU is a good team with a brutal finishing schedule.
Oklahoma State (4-2) - TCU (W), at Kansas State (L), West Virginia (L), Texas Tech (W), at Oklahoma (L), at Baylor (L), projected record 6-6 (The Cowboys looked pretty good this week, but the schedule remains an obstacle)
TCU (5-2) - at Oklahoma State (L), at West Virginia (L), Kansas State (L), at Texas (L), Oklahoma (L), projected record 5-7 (only need one more win, but who are they going to beat?)
Baylor (3-3) - at Iowa State (W), Kansas (W), at Oklahoma (L), Kansas State (L), Texas Tech (L), Oklahoma State (W) - projected record 6-6 (I am not sure how they beat both Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, so a win at Iowa State this week might be a necessity)
Iowa State (4-3) - Baylor (L), Oklahoma (L), at Texas (L), at Kansas (W), West Virginia (L), projected record 5-7 (pivotal game vs Baylor this week, with the loser in great danger of missing a bowl)
Big 12 Reset:
1. Kansas State Wildcats (Fiesta Bowl)
2. Oklahoma Sooners (Sugar Bowl)
3. Texas Tech Red Raiders (Alamo Bowl)
4. Texas Longhorns (Cotton Bowl)
5. West Virginia Mountaineers (Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl)
6. Oklahoma State Cowboys (Holiday Bowl)
7. Baylor Bears (Texas Bowl)
8. TCU Horned Frogs
9. Iowa State Cyclones
10. Kansas Jayhawks
(currently not filling Pinstripe Bowl slot)
ACC
Virginia Tech (4-4) - at Miami FL (L), Florida State (L), at Boston College (W), Virginia (W), projected record 6-6 (could easily win at Miami, FL this week and earn some breathing room)
Maryland (4-3) - at Boston College (W), Georgia Tech (W), at Clemson (L), Florida State (L), at North Carolina (L), projected record 6-6 (if they lose to BC or Georgia Tech, things will get tough)
Georgia Tech (3-4) - BYU (W), at Maryland (L), at North Carolina (L), Duke (W), at Georgia (L), projected record 5-7 (beating BYU and Maryland will give them their best chance)
Wake Forest (4-3) - Clemson (L), Boston College (W), at NC State (L), at Notre Dame (L), Vanderbilt (L), projected record 5-7 (BC is one, where is the other?)
ACC Reset
1. Florida State Seminoles (Orange Bowl)
2. Clemson Tigers (Chick Fil-A Bowl)
3. North Carolina State Wolfpack (Russell Athletic Bowl)
4. North Carolina Tar Heels
5. Miami Hurricanes (Belk Bowl)
6. Virginia Tech Hokies (Sun Bowl)
7. Duke Blue Devils (Music City Bowl)
8. Maryland Terrapins (Independence Bowl)
9. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
10. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
11. Virginia Cavaliers
12. Boston College Eagles
(currently not filling Military Bowl slot)
Big East
Pittsburgh (3-4) - Temple (W), at Notre Dame (L), at Connecticut (W), Rutgers (L), at South Florida (W), projected record 6-6 (I am giving Pitt the benefit of the doubt, but they have no margin for error)
Temple (3-3) - at Pittsburgh (L), at Louisville (L), Cincinnati (L), at Army (W), Syracuse (W), projected record 5-6 (This weeks game at Pittsburgh may likely determine the 4th bowl slot from the Big East.)
South Florida (2-5) - Syracuse (W), Connecticut (W), at Miami FL (L), at Cincinnati (L), Pittsburgh (L), projected record 4-8 (It's now or never for the Bulls in 2012)
Big East Reset:
1. Rutgers Scarlett Knights (Orange Bowl)
2. Louisville Cardinals (Russell Athletic Bowl)
3. Cincinnati Bearcats (Belk Bowl)
4. Pittsburgh Panthers (Pinstripe Bowl)
5. Temple Owls
6. South Florida Bulls
7. Syracuse Orange
8. Connecticut Huskies
(currently not filling BBVA Compass Bowl or Beef O'Brady's Bowl slots)
Other Conferences/Independents
Houston (3-4) - UTEP (W), at East Carolina (W), Tulsa (L), at Marshall (L), Tulane (W). projected record 6-6
Marshall (3-4) - UCF (L), Memphis(W), at UAB (W), Houston (W), at East Carolina (L), projected record 6-6
SMU (3-4) - Memphis (W), at UCF (L), Southern Miss (W), at Rice (W), Tulsa (L), projected record 6-6
Bowling Green (5-3) - Eastern Michigan (W), at Ohio (L), Kent State (L), Buffalo (W), projected record 7-5 (likely gets bowl-eligible this week)
Ball State (5-3) - at Army (W), at Toledo (L), Ohio (L), at Miami(OH) (L), projected record 6-6
Western Michigan (3-5) - Northern Illinois (L), at Central Michigan (W), at Buffalo (W), Eastern Michigan (W), projected record 6-6
Miami(OH) (3-4) - Ohio (L), at Buffalo (W), Kent State (L), at Central Michigan (L), Ball State (W), projected record 5-7
Central Michigan (2-5) - Akron (W), Western Michigan (L), at Eastern Michigan (W), Miami(OH) (W), at UMass (W), projected record 6-6
Air Force (4-3) - Nevada (L), at Army (W), at San Diego State (L), Hawaii (W), at Fresno State (L), projected record 6-6
New Mexico (4-4) - Fresno State (L), at UNLV (L), Wyoming (W), Nevada (L), at Colorado State (W), projected record 6-7
Arkansas State (4-3) - at LA-Lafayette (L), at North Texas (W), LA-Monroe (L), at Troy (W), Middle Tennessee (W), projected record 7-5
Troy (4-3) - at Florida Atlantic (W), at Tennessee (L), Navy (L), Arkansas State (L), at Middle Tennessee (L), projected record 5-7
San Jose State (5-2) - Texas State (W), at Idaho (W), at New Mexico State (W), BYU (L), Louisiana Tech (L), projected record 8-4
Navy (4-3) - at East Carolina (L), Florida Atlantic (W), at Troy (W), Texas State (W), Army (W), projected record 8-4
Other Conferences/Independents Reset:
1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Fiesta Bowl)
2. Ohio Bobcats (Little Caesars Bowl)
3. Boise State Broncos (Las Vegas Bowl)
4. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl)
5. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (Liberty Bowl)
6. Northern Illinois Huskies (GoDaddy.com Bowl)
7. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (New Orleans Bowl)
8. Toledo Rockets (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl)
9. Nevada Wolfpack (Poinsettia Bowl)
10. Kent State Golden Flash (Beef O'Brady's Bowl**)
11. Utah State Aggies (Independence Bowl**)
12. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (GoDaddy.com Bowl)
13. UCF Golden Knights (Armed Forces Bowl)
14. Fresno State Bulldogs (Hawaii Bowl)
15. San Diego State Aztecs (New Mexico Bowl)
16. BYU Cougars (Poinsettia Bowl)
17. East Carolina Pirates (New Orleans Bowl)
18. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (BBVA Compass Bowl**)
19. Middle Tennesse State Blue Raiders (Pinstripe Bowl**)
Other Projected Bowl Eligible Teams:
Marshall Thundering Herd (Beef O'Brady's Bowl)
Houston Cougars (Hawaii Bowl)
SMU Mustangs (Heart of Dallas Bowl)
Air Force Falcons (Armed Forces Bowl)
Navy Midshipmen (Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl)
Bowling Green Falcons (BBVA Compass Bowl**)
Ball State Cardinals (Military Bowl**)
Arkansas State (Military Bowl**)
San Jose State (Little Caesars Bowl**)
College Football 2012 - Updated Bowl Projections (after week 8)
New Mexico Bowl - Arizona Wildcats vs San Diego State Aztecs
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl - Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs Toledo Rockets
Poinsettia Bowl - Nevada Wolfpack vs BYU Cougars
Beef O'Brady's Bowl - Kent State Golden Flash vs Marshall Thundering Herd
New Orleans Bowl - East Carolina Pirates vs Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
Las Vegas Bowl - Boise State Broncos vs UCLA Bruins
Hawaii Bowl - Fresno State Bulldogs vs Houston Cougars
Little Caesars Bowl - Ohio Bobcats vs San Jose State Spartans
Military Bowl - Arkansas State Redwolves vs Ball State Cardinals
Belk Bowl - Miami Hurricanes vs Cincinnati Bearcats
Holiday Bowl - Arizona State Sun Devils vs Oklahoma State Cowboys
Russell Athletic Bowl - Louisville Cardinals vs North Carolina State Wolfpack
Independence Bowl - Maryland Terrapins vs Utah State Aggies
Texas Bowl - Baylor Bears vs Michigan State Spartans
Armed Forces Bowl - UCF Golden Knights vs Air Force Falcons
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl - Washington Huskies vs Navy Midshipmen
Alamo Bowl - Oregon State Beavers vs Texas Tech Red Raiders
Pinstripe Bowl - Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders vs Pittsburgh Panthers
Music City Bowl - Duke Blue Devils vs Tennessee Volunteers
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl - West Virginia Mountaineers vs Northwestern Wildcats
Sun Bowl - Stanford Cardinal vs Virginia Tech Hokies
Liberty Bowl - Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Vanderbilt Commodores
Chick-Fil-A Bowl - Georgia Bulldogs vs Clemson Tigers
Heart of Dallas Bowl - SMU Mustangs vs Purdue Boilermakers
Capital One Bowl - Nebraska Cornhuskers vs LSU Tigers
Outback Bowl - Wisconsin Badgers vs South Carolina Gamecocks
Gator Bowl - Texas A&M Aggies vs Iowa Hawkeyes
Cotton Bowl - Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Texas Longhorns
BBVA Compass Bowl - Bowling Green Falcons vs Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
GoDaddy Bowl - Northern Illinois Huskies vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Rose Bowl - USC Trojans vs Michigan Wolverines
Orange Bowl - Florida State Seminoles vs Rutgers Scarlett Knights
Fiesta Bowl - Kansas State Wildcats vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Sugar Bowl - Florida Gators vs Oklahoma Sooners
BCS National Championship - Oregon Ducks vs Alabama Crimson Tide
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl - Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs Toledo Rockets
Poinsettia Bowl - Nevada Wolfpack vs BYU Cougars
Beef O'Brady's Bowl - Kent State Golden Flash vs Marshall Thundering Herd
New Orleans Bowl - East Carolina Pirates vs Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
Las Vegas Bowl - Boise State Broncos vs UCLA Bruins
Hawaii Bowl - Fresno State Bulldogs vs Houston Cougars
Little Caesars Bowl - Ohio Bobcats vs San Jose State Spartans
Military Bowl - Arkansas State Redwolves vs Ball State Cardinals
Belk Bowl - Miami Hurricanes vs Cincinnati Bearcats
Holiday Bowl - Arizona State Sun Devils vs Oklahoma State Cowboys
Russell Athletic Bowl - Louisville Cardinals vs North Carolina State Wolfpack
Independence Bowl - Maryland Terrapins vs Utah State Aggies
Texas Bowl - Baylor Bears vs Michigan State Spartans
Armed Forces Bowl - UCF Golden Knights vs Air Force Falcons
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl - Washington Huskies vs Navy Midshipmen
Alamo Bowl - Oregon State Beavers vs Texas Tech Red Raiders
Pinstripe Bowl - Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders vs Pittsburgh Panthers
Music City Bowl - Duke Blue Devils vs Tennessee Volunteers
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl - West Virginia Mountaineers vs Northwestern Wildcats
Sun Bowl - Stanford Cardinal vs Virginia Tech Hokies
Liberty Bowl - Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Vanderbilt Commodores
Chick-Fil-A Bowl - Georgia Bulldogs vs Clemson Tigers
Heart of Dallas Bowl - SMU Mustangs vs Purdue Boilermakers
Capital One Bowl - Nebraska Cornhuskers vs LSU Tigers
Outback Bowl - Wisconsin Badgers vs South Carolina Gamecocks
Gator Bowl - Texas A&M Aggies vs Iowa Hawkeyes
Cotton Bowl - Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Texas Longhorns
BBVA Compass Bowl - Bowling Green Falcons vs Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
GoDaddy Bowl - Northern Illinois Huskies vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Rose Bowl - USC Trojans vs Michigan Wolverines
Orange Bowl - Florida State Seminoles vs Rutgers Scarlett Knights
Fiesta Bowl - Kansas State Wildcats vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Sugar Bowl - Florida Gators vs Oklahoma Sooners
BCS National Championship - Oregon Ducks vs Alabama Crimson Tide
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