Draft tonight...here is my final Mock Draft.
1. Carolina Panthers select Cam Newton, QB, Auburn Tigers
2. Denver Broncos select Von Miller, LB, Texas A&M Aggies
3. Buffalo Bills select Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama Crimson Tide
4. Cincinnati Bengals select A.J. Green, WR, Georgia Bulldogs
5. Dallas Cowboys (from Arizona Cardinals) select Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU Tigers
(Arizona receives Dallas 2011 1st rd pick #9 and 2011 2nd rd pick #40, Dallas receives Arizona 2012 3rd rd pick)
6. Washington Redskins (from Cleveland Browns) select Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri Tigers
(Cleveland receives Washington 2011 1st rd pick #10 and 2011 2nd rd pick #41, Washington receives Cleveland 2011 4th rd pick #102 and 2012 4th rd pick)
7. San Francisco 49ers select Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska Cornhuskers
8. Tennessee Titans select Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn Tigers
9. Arizona Cardinals (from Dallas Cowboys) select Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina Tar Heels
10. Cleveland Browns (from Washington Redskins) select Julio Jones, WR, Alabama Crimson Tide
11. Houston Texans select Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri Tigers
12. Minnesota Vikings select Jake Locker, QB, Washington Huskies
13. Detroit Lions select Da Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson Tigers
14. San Diego Chargers (from St. Louis Rams) select J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin Badgers
(St. Louis receives San Diego 2011 1st rd pick #18 and 2011 2nd rd pick #50, San Diego receives St, Louis 2011 3rd rd pick #78)
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from Miami Dolphins) select Cameron Jordan, DE, California Golden Bears
(Miami receives Tampa Bay 2011 1st rd pick #20 and 2011 2nd rd pick #51, Tampa Bay receives Miami 2011 3rd rd pick #79)
16. Jacksonville Jaguars select Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue Boilermakers
17. New England Patriots select Mike Pouncey, G/C, Florida Gators
18. St. Louis Rams (from San Diego Chargers) select Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame Fighting Irish
19. New York Giants select Tyron Smith, OT, USC Trojans
20. Miami Dolphins (from Tampa Bay Buccaneers) select Andy Dalton, QB, TCU Horned Frogs
21. Kansas City Chiefs select Nate Solder, OT, Colorado Buffaloes
22. Indianapolis Colts select Anthony Costanzo, OT, Boston College Eagles
23. New York Jets (from Philadelphia Eagles) select Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois Fighting Illini
(Philadelphia receives New York 2011 1st rd pick #30, 2012 3rd rd pick and 2011 4th rd pick #126, New York receives Philadelphia 5th rd pick #153)
24. New Orleans Saints select Muhammed Wilkerson, DT, Temple Owls
25. Seattle Seahawks select Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado Buffaloes
26. Baltimore Ravens select Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State Buckeyes
27. Buffalo Bills (from Atlanta Falcons) select Christian Ponder, QB, Florida State Seminoles
(Atlanta receives Buffalo 2011 2nd rd pick #34, 2011 3rd rd pick #68 and 2011 6th rd pick #169, Buffalo receives Atlanta 2011 3rd rd pick #91 and 2011 6th rd pick #192)
28. New England Patriots select Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama Crimson Tide
29. Chicago Bears select Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin Badgers
30. Philadelphia Eagles (from New York Jets) select Brandon Harris, CB, Miami Hurricanes
31. Pittsburgh Steelers select Aaron Williams, CB, Texas Longhorns
32. Green Bay Packers select Brooks Reed, LB, Arizona Wildcats
Extra: 33. New England - Akeem Ayers, 34. Atlanta - Torrey Smith, 35. Cincinnati - Ryan Mallet 36. Denver - Marvin Austin, 37. Cleveland - Adrian Clayborn, 38. Arizona - Derek Sherrod, 39. Tennessee - Justin Houston, 40. Arizona - Jabaal Sheard, 41. Cleveland - Phil Taylor, 42. Houston - Ras-I Dowling, 43. Minnesota - James Carpenter, 44. Detroit - Martez Wilson, 45. San Francisco - Colin Kaepernick, 46. Denver - Ben Ijalana, 47. St. Louis - Mikel Leshoure, 48. Oakland - Stefen Wisniewski, 49. Jacksonville - Leonard Hankerson, 50. St. Louis - Stephen Paea, 51. Miami - Danny Watkins, 52. NY Giants - Ryan Williams, 53. Indianapolis - 54. Philadelphia - Rahim Moore, 55. Kansas City - Jon Baldwin, 56. New Orleans - Kendall Hunter, 57. Seattle - Rodney Hudson, 58. Baltimore - Titus Young, 59. Atlanta - Sam Acho, 60. New England - Allen Bailey, 61. San Diego - Randall Cobb, 62. Chicago - Davon House, 63. Pittsburgh - Orlando Franklin, 64. Green Bay - DeMarco Murray
Sports Blog specializing in Bracketology
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
NFL Mock Draft - April 20, 2011
As an amatuer mocker, I obviously have no inside information related to the draft. My mock draft is based on reading, gut and 30 years of watching NFL games. It did bring some minor satisfaction that after typing up my initial mock draft last Thursday Night and including a trade between Dallas and St. Louis, that a rumor started circling Friday with this exact scenario. I know I didn't start the rumor, as only 2 1/2 people read this, but it made me smile nonetheless. Here is version 2.0 of my mock draft, as I start making tweaks as better information comes available.
1. Carolina Panthers - Cam Newton, QB, Auburn Tigers
2. Denver Broncos - Marcell Darius, DT, Alabama Crimson Tide
3. Buffalo Bills - Von Miller, LB, Texas A&M Aggies
4. Cincinnati Bengals - A.J. Green, WR, Georgia Bulldogs
5. Arizona Cardinals - Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU Tigers
6. Cleveland Browns - Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn Tigers
7. San Francisco 49ers - Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina Tar Heels
8. Tennessee Titans - Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri Tigers
9. St. Louis Rams (From Dallas) - Julio Jones, WR, Alabama Crimson Tide
10. Washington Redskins - Da' Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson Tigers
11. Houston Texans - Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska Cornhuskers
12. Minnesota Vikings - Cameron Jordan, DE, California Golden Bears
13. Detroit Lions - Tyron Smith, OT, USC Trojans
14. Dallas Cowboys (from St. Louis) - J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin Badgers
15. Miami Dolphins - Mike Pouncey, G, Florida Gators
16. Jacksonville Jaguars - Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue Boilermakers
17. New England Patriots - Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama Crimson Tide
18. San Diego Chargers - Muhammed Wilkerson, DT, Temple Owls
19. New York Giants - Anthony Costanzo, OT, Boston College Eagles
20. Philadelphia Eagles (from Tampa Bay) - Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado Buffaloes
21. Kansas City Chiefs - Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin Badgers
22. Indianapolis Colts - Nate Solder, OT, Colorado Buffaloes
23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from Philadelphia) - Justin Houston, DE, Georgia Bulldogs
24. New Orleans Saints - Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois Fighting Illini
25. Seattle Seahwaks - Andy Dalton, QB, TCU Horned Frogs
26. Baltimore Ravens - Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State Buckeyes
27. Atlanta Falcons - Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri Tigers
28. Minnesota Vikings (from New England for 2012 First Round Pick +) - Jake Locker, QB, Washington Huskies
29. Chicago Bears - Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State Tigers
30. New York Jets - Akeem Ayers, LB/DE, UCLA Bruins
31. Pittsburgh Steelers - Ben Ijalana, G, Villanova Wildcats
32. Green Bay Packers - Randall Cobb, WR, Kentucky Wildcats
1. Carolina Panthers - Cam Newton, QB, Auburn Tigers
2. Denver Broncos - Marcell Darius, DT, Alabama Crimson Tide
3. Buffalo Bills - Von Miller, LB, Texas A&M Aggies
4. Cincinnati Bengals - A.J. Green, WR, Georgia Bulldogs
5. Arizona Cardinals - Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU Tigers
6. Cleveland Browns - Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn Tigers
7. San Francisco 49ers - Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina Tar Heels
8. Tennessee Titans - Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri Tigers
9. St. Louis Rams (From Dallas) - Julio Jones, WR, Alabama Crimson Tide
10. Washington Redskins - Da' Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson Tigers
11. Houston Texans - Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska Cornhuskers
12. Minnesota Vikings - Cameron Jordan, DE, California Golden Bears
13. Detroit Lions - Tyron Smith, OT, USC Trojans
14. Dallas Cowboys (from St. Louis) - J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin Badgers
15. Miami Dolphins - Mike Pouncey, G, Florida Gators
16. Jacksonville Jaguars - Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue Boilermakers
17. New England Patriots - Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama Crimson Tide
18. San Diego Chargers - Muhammed Wilkerson, DT, Temple Owls
19. New York Giants - Anthony Costanzo, OT, Boston College Eagles
20. Philadelphia Eagles (from Tampa Bay) - Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado Buffaloes
21. Kansas City Chiefs - Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin Badgers
22. Indianapolis Colts - Nate Solder, OT, Colorado Buffaloes
23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from Philadelphia) - Justin Houston, DE, Georgia Bulldogs
24. New Orleans Saints - Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois Fighting Illini
25. Seattle Seahwaks - Andy Dalton, QB, TCU Horned Frogs
26. Baltimore Ravens - Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State Buckeyes
27. Atlanta Falcons - Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri Tigers
28. Minnesota Vikings (from New England for 2012 First Round Pick +) - Jake Locker, QB, Washington Huskies
29. Chicago Bears - Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State Tigers
30. New York Jets - Akeem Ayers, LB/DE, UCLA Bruins
31. Pittsburgh Steelers - Ben Ijalana, G, Villanova Wildcats
32. Green Bay Packers - Randall Cobb, WR, Kentucky Wildcats
Friday, April 15, 2011
NFL Mock Draft - Jabesblog
We are now less than two weeks from the only NFL off-season activity not involving courtrooms, lawyers and mediators. The current landscape of no trades or free agency is also making this year's draft extremely interesting. One has to assume that there are quarterbacks available via trade, but without a deal in place or the uncertainty of how much time there will be once a deal is done and the season starts, which teams will risk potentially going into the season with the same quarterback mess they had in 2010? That is driving up the value of what appears to be a quarterback class full of as many question marks as glaring positives. With that, here is my Mock Draft version 1.0....
1. Carolina Panthers select Cam Newton, QB, Auburn Tigers - When it comes down to it, Newton is the type of player you take #1. The Panthers brass seems to like him and a trade out of this spot is unlikely, so I doubt this is a smoke screen. The red flag with this is that Jimmy Clausen was a high investment with a 2nd round pick a year ago, albeit under different direction. Right now, my gut tells me that Newton is the guy here.
2. Denver Broncos select Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama Crimson Tide - Dareus is probably the only lock to go in the top 2. He would be a great selection for the myriad of needs in Carolina, or more likely he will fall to the Broncos. Dareus will instantly upgrade a porous run defense in Denver.
3. Buffalo Bills select Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M Aggies - The Bills are a wildcard when it comes to the draft, with C.J. Spiller coming as a surprise last year. They are one team that could opt quarterback, but may be comfortable enough with Ryan Fitzpatrick to wait until Round 2 for a competing signal-caller. The safe pick is Miller, who upgrades the pass rush immediately, especially from the outside.
4. Cincinnati Bengals select A.J. Green, WR, Georgia Bulldogs - The Bengals would be the place for Newton if Carolina passes on him, but with the Heisman winner off the board, Cincy opts for the top offensive playmaker in the draft. The undercurrent right now says the Bengals do not love Blaine Gabbert, so either they are trying to lay low or they will also address quarterback in Round 2. Right now, the tall, smooth Green is the pick.
5. Arizona Cardinals select Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU Tigers - Another spot for a QB, but the current vibe is that the Cardinals will bring in a veteran, maybe a Marc Bulger at the very least, to compete with their current less than mediocre possibilities at QB. Peterson is the top overall talent on many boards and also could be a plus special teams contributor on punt returns. Coach Wisenhunt is a smart man and smart men take the most talented player.
6. Cleveland Browns select Nick Fairley, DT/DE, Auburn Tigers - The Browns covet Green, so after the blow of seeing him going to a division rival, they upgrade their defensive line with the enigmatic Fairley, who might be the biggest boom/bust player in this draft. Julio Jones is also an option here, but Mike Holmgren has never had tremendous luck with high picks at WR.
7. San Francisco 49ers select Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri Tigers - San Fran wants to bring Alex Smith back, but there is no certainty he wants to come back at this point. Even so, bringing in a Gabbert to compete for the job would not be a bad move for Coach Harbaugh. The experts have gushed about Gabbert with many having him ahead of Newton, but the production test says that this ascension may be unwarranted.
8. Tennessee Titans select Da' Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson Tigers- This is always right about the time when the draft get interesting, mainly because something happens unexpected in the top 5-7 and then all heck breaks loose. Of course, without the Raiders or Jaguars to reach for a player in this area, maybe the script will be easier to follow. The Titans biggest need is probably quarterback, but with Newton/Gabbert off the board, they choose to address other areas. Bowers is a big risk/reward pick, with injuries being a major concern.
9. St. Louis Rams (from Dallas Cowboys) select Julio Jones, WR, Alabama Crimson Tide - With Jones sliding past Cleveland and Tennessee, the Rams choose not to risk it and move up to get Sam Bradford his new playmaker. The Cowboys have needs that can be addressed still at 14, so they make a perfect trade partner with St. Louis.
10. Washington Redskins select Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina Tar Heels - The Jake Locker watch starts here, but if the Redskins have been paying attention to my blog the last 18 months, they know Locker is a stretch at 10. The Redskins seem desperate for an offensive upgrade and might trade down out of this pick to obtain more help later. Right now, lets keep them here selecting the drafts best pass rusher from Carolina.
11. Houston Texans select Aldon Smith, LB/DE, Missouri Tigers - A change to the 3-4 is going to dictate this draft for Houston. Smith will be a perfect piece to aid in the transition for new D.Coordinator Wade Phillps.
12. Minnesota Vikings select Jake Locker, QB, Washington Huskies - With the coveted defensive lineman off the board, Minnesota could look at trading down a little and still secure Locker. The fascination of the Patriots at 17 with the former Husky probably means 16 is as low as they can go. Right now, I don't have a trading partner identified, as Jacksonville would have to be desperate for someone that fell to move to this spot.
13. Detroit Lions select Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska Cornhuskers - Lions brass gets their pick in immediately when the corner from Nebraska is still around.
14. Dallas Cowboys (from St. Louis Rams) select Tyron Smith, OT, USC Trojans - Dallas slides down and still gets their man in the Smith.
15. Miami Dolphins select Mike Pouncey, G, Florida Gators - There is a lot of talk about a RB here, but that is a position that can be had a little later. Some think this is the better Pouncey brother and based upon what Maurkice did a year ago, the Dolphins are the smart team that grabs Mike.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars select J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin Badgers - Watt's sack totals were deceiving a year ago, as his impact on each game was lost in the statistics. A high-motor, high character player, Watt will aid a Jaguar defense in need of a spark.
17. Philadelphia Eagels (from New England Patriots) select Anthony Costanzo, OT, Boston College Eagles - there is a danger that a run on OL is in progress and the Eagles will be left out at 23. The Patriots oblige and allow Philly to stick it to the Giants who want the B.C. product with the 19th selection.
18. San Diego Chargers select Muhammed Wilkerson, DE/DT, Temple Owls - The Chargers take the draft's fastest riser, not quite as quickly as the Jaguars did a year ago. Wilkerson is a five-technique who fits San Diego well.
19. New York Giants select Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin Badgers - New York settles for Carimi as the run on OL continues. The Badger product is solid prospect who should be a poor man's Joe Thomas.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue Boilermakers - Tampa probably does not want to sacrifice the ammunition to get up to 10 for Quinn, but the depth at this position will work out in their favor. Kerrigan, Cameron Heyward or J.J. Watt should be available here. I'll go with a high-character machine out of Purdue in Kerrigan at this spot.
21. Kansas City Chiefs select Justin Houston, DE/LB, Georgia Bulldogs - Kansas City has a myriad of choices here. Cameron Heyward continues to slide as Houston is the better fit for the Chiefs.
22. Indianapolis Colts select Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State Tigers - This is a toss-up between Sherrod and Nate Solder to give Peyton Manning a new left tackle.
23. New England Patriots (from Philadelphia Eagles) select Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama Crimson Tide - Benjarvus Green-Ellis is not a franchise back. A year ago, Mark Ingram was the next Emmitt Smith. Smith was picked in this area. The Patriots coach is a smart man. That is my math with this one.
24. New Orleans Saints select Cameron Jordan, DE/DT, California Golden Bears - The Saints are the beneficiary of the drop in Jordan who could go as high as 10-15. He fits a need and the Saints mold for this position.
25. Seattle Seahawks select Jimmy Smith, DB, Colorado Buffaloes - We are starting to get to the area where the early 2nd round teams that still need a QB will start to get antsy. I think Seattle stays put as Smith fills a priority and would be gone by the early 2nd.
26. Baltimore Ravens select Cameron Heyward, DE/DT, Ohio State Buckeyes - The Ravens get their man in Heyward and the QB trade-up has to wait one more slot.
27. Cincinnati Bengals (from Atlanta Falcons) select Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas Razorbacks - The Bengals get a tall, strong-armed replacement for the disgruntled Palmer by finding a trading partner in Atlanta. The Falcons can drop to 34 and get better value for another receiving weapon for Matty Ice.
28. New England Patriots select Akeem Ayers, LB/DE, UCLA Bruins - Nobody thinks New England will keep this pick. I think they will when they can add a defensive pick who is on their radar in Ayers.
29. Chicago Bears select Nate Solder, OT, Colorado Buffaloes - The Bears get protection for Cutler by securing the services of the last tackle with a first round grade.
30. New York Jets select Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois Fighting Illini - The Jets beef up their defense by getting great value in Liuget, who could go much higher.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers select Ben Ijalana, OL, Villanova Wildcats - Pittsburgh's offensive line woes were well-publicized in a Super Bowl run and the versatile Ijalana makes sense for the Steelers.
32. Green Bay Packers select Randall Cobb, WR, Kentucky Wildcats - The age of Donald Driver and the pending departure of James Jones trends the Super Bowl champs in this direction. A replacement for Cullen Jenkins is also an option, but no one jumps off the board at 32.
1. Carolina Panthers select Cam Newton, QB, Auburn Tigers - When it comes down to it, Newton is the type of player you take #1. The Panthers brass seems to like him and a trade out of this spot is unlikely, so I doubt this is a smoke screen. The red flag with this is that Jimmy Clausen was a high investment with a 2nd round pick a year ago, albeit under different direction. Right now, my gut tells me that Newton is the guy here.
2. Denver Broncos select Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama Crimson Tide - Dareus is probably the only lock to go in the top 2. He would be a great selection for the myriad of needs in Carolina, or more likely he will fall to the Broncos. Dareus will instantly upgrade a porous run defense in Denver.
3. Buffalo Bills select Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M Aggies - The Bills are a wildcard when it comes to the draft, with C.J. Spiller coming as a surprise last year. They are one team that could opt quarterback, but may be comfortable enough with Ryan Fitzpatrick to wait until Round 2 for a competing signal-caller. The safe pick is Miller, who upgrades the pass rush immediately, especially from the outside.
4. Cincinnati Bengals select A.J. Green, WR, Georgia Bulldogs - The Bengals would be the place for Newton if Carolina passes on him, but with the Heisman winner off the board, Cincy opts for the top offensive playmaker in the draft. The undercurrent right now says the Bengals do not love Blaine Gabbert, so either they are trying to lay low or they will also address quarterback in Round 2. Right now, the tall, smooth Green is the pick.
5. Arizona Cardinals select Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU Tigers - Another spot for a QB, but the current vibe is that the Cardinals will bring in a veteran, maybe a Marc Bulger at the very least, to compete with their current less than mediocre possibilities at QB. Peterson is the top overall talent on many boards and also could be a plus special teams contributor on punt returns. Coach Wisenhunt is a smart man and smart men take the most talented player.
6. Cleveland Browns select Nick Fairley, DT/DE, Auburn Tigers - The Browns covet Green, so after the blow of seeing him going to a division rival, they upgrade their defensive line with the enigmatic Fairley, who might be the biggest boom/bust player in this draft. Julio Jones is also an option here, but Mike Holmgren has never had tremendous luck with high picks at WR.
7. San Francisco 49ers select Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri Tigers - San Fran wants to bring Alex Smith back, but there is no certainty he wants to come back at this point. Even so, bringing in a Gabbert to compete for the job would not be a bad move for Coach Harbaugh. The experts have gushed about Gabbert with many having him ahead of Newton, but the production test says that this ascension may be unwarranted.
8. Tennessee Titans select Da' Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson Tigers- This is always right about the time when the draft get interesting, mainly because something happens unexpected in the top 5-7 and then all heck breaks loose. Of course, without the Raiders or Jaguars to reach for a player in this area, maybe the script will be easier to follow. The Titans biggest need is probably quarterback, but with Newton/Gabbert off the board, they choose to address other areas. Bowers is a big risk/reward pick, with injuries being a major concern.
9. St. Louis Rams (from Dallas Cowboys) select Julio Jones, WR, Alabama Crimson Tide - With Jones sliding past Cleveland and Tennessee, the Rams choose not to risk it and move up to get Sam Bradford his new playmaker. The Cowboys have needs that can be addressed still at 14, so they make a perfect trade partner with St. Louis.
10. Washington Redskins select Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina Tar Heels - The Jake Locker watch starts here, but if the Redskins have been paying attention to my blog the last 18 months, they know Locker is a stretch at 10. The Redskins seem desperate for an offensive upgrade and might trade down out of this pick to obtain more help later. Right now, lets keep them here selecting the drafts best pass rusher from Carolina.
11. Houston Texans select Aldon Smith, LB/DE, Missouri Tigers - A change to the 3-4 is going to dictate this draft for Houston. Smith will be a perfect piece to aid in the transition for new D.Coordinator Wade Phillps.
12. Minnesota Vikings select Jake Locker, QB, Washington Huskies - With the coveted defensive lineman off the board, Minnesota could look at trading down a little and still secure Locker. The fascination of the Patriots at 17 with the former Husky probably means 16 is as low as they can go. Right now, I don't have a trading partner identified, as Jacksonville would have to be desperate for someone that fell to move to this spot.
13. Detroit Lions select Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska Cornhuskers - Lions brass gets their pick in immediately when the corner from Nebraska is still around.
14. Dallas Cowboys (from St. Louis Rams) select Tyron Smith, OT, USC Trojans - Dallas slides down and still gets their man in the Smith.
15. Miami Dolphins select Mike Pouncey, G, Florida Gators - There is a lot of talk about a RB here, but that is a position that can be had a little later. Some think this is the better Pouncey brother and based upon what Maurkice did a year ago, the Dolphins are the smart team that grabs Mike.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars select J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin Badgers - Watt's sack totals were deceiving a year ago, as his impact on each game was lost in the statistics. A high-motor, high character player, Watt will aid a Jaguar defense in need of a spark.
17. Philadelphia Eagels (from New England Patriots) select Anthony Costanzo, OT, Boston College Eagles - there is a danger that a run on OL is in progress and the Eagles will be left out at 23. The Patriots oblige and allow Philly to stick it to the Giants who want the B.C. product with the 19th selection.
18. San Diego Chargers select Muhammed Wilkerson, DE/DT, Temple Owls - The Chargers take the draft's fastest riser, not quite as quickly as the Jaguars did a year ago. Wilkerson is a five-technique who fits San Diego well.
19. New York Giants select Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin Badgers - New York settles for Carimi as the run on OL continues. The Badger product is solid prospect who should be a poor man's Joe Thomas.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue Boilermakers - Tampa probably does not want to sacrifice the ammunition to get up to 10 for Quinn, but the depth at this position will work out in their favor. Kerrigan, Cameron Heyward or J.J. Watt should be available here. I'll go with a high-character machine out of Purdue in Kerrigan at this spot.
21. Kansas City Chiefs select Justin Houston, DE/LB, Georgia Bulldogs - Kansas City has a myriad of choices here. Cameron Heyward continues to slide as Houston is the better fit for the Chiefs.
22. Indianapolis Colts select Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State Tigers - This is a toss-up between Sherrod and Nate Solder to give Peyton Manning a new left tackle.
23. New England Patriots (from Philadelphia Eagles) select Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama Crimson Tide - Benjarvus Green-Ellis is not a franchise back. A year ago, Mark Ingram was the next Emmitt Smith. Smith was picked in this area. The Patriots coach is a smart man. That is my math with this one.
24. New Orleans Saints select Cameron Jordan, DE/DT, California Golden Bears - The Saints are the beneficiary of the drop in Jordan who could go as high as 10-15. He fits a need and the Saints mold for this position.
25. Seattle Seahawks select Jimmy Smith, DB, Colorado Buffaloes - We are starting to get to the area where the early 2nd round teams that still need a QB will start to get antsy. I think Seattle stays put as Smith fills a priority and would be gone by the early 2nd.
26. Baltimore Ravens select Cameron Heyward, DE/DT, Ohio State Buckeyes - The Ravens get their man in Heyward and the QB trade-up has to wait one more slot.
27. Cincinnati Bengals (from Atlanta Falcons) select Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas Razorbacks - The Bengals get a tall, strong-armed replacement for the disgruntled Palmer by finding a trading partner in Atlanta. The Falcons can drop to 34 and get better value for another receiving weapon for Matty Ice.
28. New England Patriots select Akeem Ayers, LB/DE, UCLA Bruins - Nobody thinks New England will keep this pick. I think they will when they can add a defensive pick who is on their radar in Ayers.
29. Chicago Bears select Nate Solder, OT, Colorado Buffaloes - The Bears get protection for Cutler by securing the services of the last tackle with a first round grade.
30. New York Jets select Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois Fighting Illini - The Jets beef up their defense by getting great value in Liuget, who could go much higher.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers select Ben Ijalana, OL, Villanova Wildcats - Pittsburgh's offensive line woes were well-publicized in a Super Bowl run and the versatile Ijalana makes sense for the Steelers.
32. Green Bay Packers select Randall Cobb, WR, Kentucky Wildcats - The age of Donald Driver and the pending departure of James Jones trends the Super Bowl champs in this direction. A replacement for Cullen Jenkins is also an option, but no one jumps off the board at 32.
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
2011 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Retrospective
Alright, let's get back at this. After a few weeks off, I will start off by putting a bow on the 2011 Men's Basketball Tournament (in a random, haphazard, off-the-top-of-my-head order). First and foremost...
1) No matter how badly your bracket got busted, this was a great tournament full of close games with thrilling endings. It started from the get-go with Matt Howard's putback against Old Dominion and continued throughout the tournament. Pundits will argue that the quality of basketball is down, but in the end, I am happy with a tournament filled with nail-biters.
2) Welcome to the new landscape of Men's College Basketball. With the one-and-done currently ruling the day, mid-majors have the opportunity to make runs. Butler and VCU make five mid-majors in 6 years (remember, Memphis is a mid-major). It will not happen every year, but it will be more frequent. Then again, it did happen 5 times in the 1990's (UNLV twice, Cincinnati from the Great Midwest, UMass and Utah).
3) I can't wait until next year when someone picks a "first four" team to go to the Final Four and then uses the rationalization that this "always happens". I don't disagree that the 5 or 6 seed is at a slight disadvantage in the second round game (unless you make them play 36 hours later in a different location), but I think in the end, VCU got a floundering Purdue squad, gained confidence and made a run we won't see for a few years, if not more.
4) Everyone ragged the Big East for their tournament showing, but with 11 teams and 2 in-conference match-ups, the losses were going to pile-up. But what about the Big 10 and the Big 12? The Big 10 went 5-2 in the second round, but its top 3 all lost to teams seeded at least 3 lines worse. The Big 12 only placed one team in the Sweet 16, and that #1 seed promptly lost to a #11 in the Elite 8. This was on top of Colorado's initial exclusion. With Connecticut winning the National Championship, I think the Big 12 gets the award for worst conference showing.
5) A team that finished in 9th place in their conference won the National Championship. No conference had ever received more than 8 bids.
6) There was controversy yesterday because the coach at Northern Arizona did not vote Connecticut #1 in the Coaches Poll. Wait, why is there a Coaches Poll after the tournament? That should be the controversy. It makes sense in football where essentially the bowl equates to one more week of football and everyone plays one game. Someone explain to me how it makes sense after the Basketball Tournament.
7) Kemba Walker should come back to school. If he was NBA ready, he would have taken over the Championship Game.
8) San Diego State probably deserved a #2 seed, but I don't think these Mountain West schools were quite as good as their gaudy RPI's indicated.
9) My All-Tournament Team (I haven't seen if there is an actual one) - Kemba Walker, Jeremy Lamb, Shelvin Mack, Matt Howard and Jamie Skeen, with Brandin Knight as the 6th Man/Late Game Shooter.
10) One of these years, I want my Wisconsin Badgers to bow out of the tournament in a game where they play at the level they show during the regular season. Every year, it ends with me saying, "I know they can play better".
11) As someone who salivates at trends and statistics, this year's tournament is not going to do much for my data. By the way, I am looking for volunteers to pick my 8/9 and 7/10 games next year. As abysmal as my bracket was, I did go 24-0 in games involving a top 6 seed in the first round. That was the only highlight.
12) Is it safe to say Butler was the first team to ever defeat two teams from the Colonial Athletic Association in the same NCAA tournament?
13) No complaints about the 4-Network format here. I did spend the first 7 hours Thursday in a bar for the first time, which was awesome. Being able to pick my game to watch the rest of the tournament was great.
14) Kudos to CBS for bringing back the Luther Vandross version of "One Shining Moment" and recognizing the Jennifer Hudson debacle.
15) If Harrison Barnes does decide to come back, North Carolina would be my early favorite to cut down the nets in 2012.
On to Baseball....
1) No matter how badly your bracket got busted, this was a great tournament full of close games with thrilling endings. It started from the get-go with Matt Howard's putback against Old Dominion and continued throughout the tournament. Pundits will argue that the quality of basketball is down, but in the end, I am happy with a tournament filled with nail-biters.
2) Welcome to the new landscape of Men's College Basketball. With the one-and-done currently ruling the day, mid-majors have the opportunity to make runs. Butler and VCU make five mid-majors in 6 years (remember, Memphis is a mid-major). It will not happen every year, but it will be more frequent. Then again, it did happen 5 times in the 1990's (UNLV twice, Cincinnati from the Great Midwest, UMass and Utah).
3) I can't wait until next year when someone picks a "first four" team to go to the Final Four and then uses the rationalization that this "always happens". I don't disagree that the 5 or 6 seed is at a slight disadvantage in the second round game (unless you make them play 36 hours later in a different location), but I think in the end, VCU got a floundering Purdue squad, gained confidence and made a run we won't see for a few years, if not more.
4) Everyone ragged the Big East for their tournament showing, but with 11 teams and 2 in-conference match-ups, the losses were going to pile-up. But what about the Big 10 and the Big 12? The Big 10 went 5-2 in the second round, but its top 3 all lost to teams seeded at least 3 lines worse. The Big 12 only placed one team in the Sweet 16, and that #1 seed promptly lost to a #11 in the Elite 8. This was on top of Colorado's initial exclusion. With Connecticut winning the National Championship, I think the Big 12 gets the award for worst conference showing.
5) A team that finished in 9th place in their conference won the National Championship. No conference had ever received more than 8 bids.
6) There was controversy yesterday because the coach at Northern Arizona did not vote Connecticut #1 in the Coaches Poll. Wait, why is there a Coaches Poll after the tournament? That should be the controversy. It makes sense in football where essentially the bowl equates to one more week of football and everyone plays one game. Someone explain to me how it makes sense after the Basketball Tournament.
7) Kemba Walker should come back to school. If he was NBA ready, he would have taken over the Championship Game.
8) San Diego State probably deserved a #2 seed, but I don't think these Mountain West schools were quite as good as their gaudy RPI's indicated.
9) My All-Tournament Team (I haven't seen if there is an actual one) - Kemba Walker, Jeremy Lamb, Shelvin Mack, Matt Howard and Jamie Skeen, with Brandin Knight as the 6th Man/Late Game Shooter.
10) One of these years, I want my Wisconsin Badgers to bow out of the tournament in a game where they play at the level they show during the regular season. Every year, it ends with me saying, "I know they can play better".
11) As someone who salivates at trends and statistics, this year's tournament is not going to do much for my data. By the way, I am looking for volunteers to pick my 8/9 and 7/10 games next year. As abysmal as my bracket was, I did go 24-0 in games involving a top 6 seed in the first round. That was the only highlight.
12) Is it safe to say Butler was the first team to ever defeat two teams from the Colonial Athletic Association in the same NCAA tournament?
13) No complaints about the 4-Network format here. I did spend the first 7 hours Thursday in a bar for the first time, which was awesome. Being able to pick my game to watch the rest of the tournament was great.
14) Kudos to CBS for bringing back the Luther Vandross version of "One Shining Moment" and recognizing the Jennifer Hudson debacle.
15) If Harrison Barnes does decide to come back, North Carolina would be my early favorite to cut down the nets in 2012.
On to Baseball....
Thursday, March 17, 2011
Jabesblog NCAA Picks
I hesitate to post my picks after such an abismal showing last year, despite pegging Duke as the tournament champion. That would be no fun though, so here is one man's vision as to how the "Big Dance" might orchestrate itself...
East Regional - 2nd Round
(1) Ohio State over (16) Texas-San Antonio
(9) Villanova over (8) George Mason
(5) West Virginia over (12) Clemson (this one is tough due to efficiency, but Clemson is the master of bloated efficiency, and the short turn-around makes it even tougher)
(4) Kentucky over (13) Princeton
(11) Marquette over (6) Xavier (Higher overall efficiency)
(3) Syracuse over (14) Indiana State
(7) Washington over (10) Georgia
(2) North Carolina over (15) Long Island
West Regional - 2nd Round
(1) Duke over (16) Hampton
(8) Michigan over (9) Tennessee
(5) Arizona over (12) Memphis
(4) Texas over (13) Oakland
(6) Cincinnati over (11) Missouri
(3) Connecticut over (14) Bucknell
(7) Temple over (10) Penn State
(2) San Diego State over (15) Northern Colorado
Southwest Regional - 2nd Round
(1) Kansas over (16) Boston U.
(8) UNLV over (9) Illinois
(12) Richmond over (5) Vanderbilt (Vandy def effeciency of 73 is greater than 34)
(13) Morehead State over (4) Louisville (Lousiville off efficiency of 40 is greater than 34, Morehead State plus 5.8 in created-possession margin)
(11) VCU over (6) Georgetown (Georgetown def efficiency of 52 is greater than 34, Chris Wright injury, very little difference in either margin)
(3) Purdue over (14) St. Peter's
(7) Texas A&M over (10) Florida State
(2) Notre Dame over (15) Akron
Southeast Regional - 2nd Round
(1) Pittsburgh over (16) UNC-Asheville
(9) Old Dominion over (8) Butler
(5) Kansas State over (12) Utah State
(4) Wisconsin over (13) Belmont
(11) Gonzaga over (6) St. John's (Gonzaga higher overall efficiency)
(3) BYU over (14) Wofford
(10) Michigan State over (7) UCLA
(2) Florida over (15) UC-Santa Barbara
East Regional - 3rd Round
(1) Ohio State over (9) Villanova
(5) West Virginia over (4) Kentucky
(3) Syracuse over (11) Marquette
(7) Washington over (2) North Carolina (identical overall efficiency and created-possession margin - Washington superior in scoring margin)
West Regional - 3rd Round
(1) Duke over (8) Michigan
(4) Texas over (5) Arizona
(3) Connecicut over (6) Cincinnati
(2) San Diego State over (7) Temple
Southwest Regional - 3rd Round
(1) Kansas over (8) UNLV
(12) Richmond over (13) Morehead State
(3) Purdue over (11) VCU
(2) Notre Dame over (7) Texas A&M
Southeast Regional - 3rd Round
(1) Pittsburgh over (9) Old Dominion
(4) Wisconsin over (5) Kansas State
(11) Gonzaga over (3) BYU
(2) Florida over (10) Michigan State
Sweet Sixteen
(1) Ohio State over (5) West Virginia
(7) Washington over (3) Syracuse
(4) Texas over (1) Duke
(2) San Diego State over (3) Connecticut
(1) Kansas over (12) Richmond
(3) Purdue over (2) Notre Dame
(1) Pittsburgh over (4) Wisconsin
(2) Florida over (11) Gonzaga
Elite Eight
(1) Ohio State over (7) Washington
(4) Texas over (2) San Diego State
(3) Purdue over (1) Kansas
(1) Pittsburgh over (2) Florida
Final Four
(1) Ohio State over (4) Texas
(1) Pittsburgh over (3) Purdue
National Championship
(1) Ohio State 72 (1) Pittsburgh 64
East Regional - 2nd Round
(1) Ohio State over (16) Texas-San Antonio
(9) Villanova over (8) George Mason
(5) West Virginia over (12) Clemson (this one is tough due to efficiency, but Clemson is the master of bloated efficiency, and the short turn-around makes it even tougher)
(4) Kentucky over (13) Princeton
(11) Marquette over (6) Xavier (Higher overall efficiency)
(3) Syracuse over (14) Indiana State
(7) Washington over (10) Georgia
(2) North Carolina over (15) Long Island
West Regional - 2nd Round
(1) Duke over (16) Hampton
(8) Michigan over (9) Tennessee
(5) Arizona over (12) Memphis
(4) Texas over (13) Oakland
(6) Cincinnati over (11) Missouri
(3) Connecticut over (14) Bucknell
(7) Temple over (10) Penn State
(2) San Diego State over (15) Northern Colorado
Southwest Regional - 2nd Round
(1) Kansas over (16) Boston U.
(8) UNLV over (9) Illinois
(12) Richmond over (5) Vanderbilt (Vandy def effeciency of 73 is greater than 34)
(13) Morehead State over (4) Louisville (Lousiville off efficiency of 40 is greater than 34, Morehead State plus 5.8 in created-possession margin)
(11) VCU over (6) Georgetown (Georgetown def efficiency of 52 is greater than 34, Chris Wright injury, very little difference in either margin)
(3) Purdue over (14) St. Peter's
(7) Texas A&M over (10) Florida State
(2) Notre Dame over (15) Akron
Southeast Regional - 2nd Round
(1) Pittsburgh over (16) UNC-Asheville
(9) Old Dominion over (8) Butler
(5) Kansas State over (12) Utah State
(4) Wisconsin over (13) Belmont
(11) Gonzaga over (6) St. John's (Gonzaga higher overall efficiency)
(3) BYU over (14) Wofford
(10) Michigan State over (7) UCLA
(2) Florida over (15) UC-Santa Barbara
East Regional - 3rd Round
(1) Ohio State over (9) Villanova
(5) West Virginia over (4) Kentucky
(3) Syracuse over (11) Marquette
(7) Washington over (2) North Carolina (identical overall efficiency and created-possession margin - Washington superior in scoring margin)
West Regional - 3rd Round
(1) Duke over (8) Michigan
(4) Texas over (5) Arizona
(3) Connecicut over (6) Cincinnati
(2) San Diego State over (7) Temple
Southwest Regional - 3rd Round
(1) Kansas over (8) UNLV
(12) Richmond over (13) Morehead State
(3) Purdue over (11) VCU
(2) Notre Dame over (7) Texas A&M
Southeast Regional - 3rd Round
(1) Pittsburgh over (9) Old Dominion
(4) Wisconsin over (5) Kansas State
(11) Gonzaga over (3) BYU
(2) Florida over (10) Michigan State
Sweet Sixteen
(1) Ohio State over (5) West Virginia
(7) Washington over (3) Syracuse
(4) Texas over (1) Duke
(2) San Diego State over (3) Connecticut
(1) Kansas over (12) Richmond
(3) Purdue over (2) Notre Dame
(1) Pittsburgh over (4) Wisconsin
(2) Florida over (11) Gonzaga
Elite Eight
(1) Ohio State over (7) Washington
(4) Texas over (2) San Diego State
(3) Purdue over (1) Kansas
(1) Pittsburgh over (2) Florida
Final Four
(1) Ohio State over (4) Texas
(1) Pittsburgh over (3) Purdue
National Championship
(1) Ohio State 72 (1) Pittsburgh 64
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
NCAA Tournament - Breaking it Down
Time to breakdown the brackets and see who is going to cut down the nets. I will use several criteria in breaking the brackets down. 1) Efficiency 2) Scoring Margin 3) Created Possession Margin 4) Guard play 5) Experience. I also like to start by figuring out who the winner of the bracket is, then working in some of the details.
Efficiency
The last 28 Final Four participants have been in the Top 30 in defensive efficiency. 2003, the last time 2 participants were outside this mark, Marquette and Texas ranked #1 and #3 in offensive efficiency, respectively. 29 out of the last 32 ranked in the Top 30 in offensive efficiency as well, the outliers being George Mason, LSU and Butler (the list includes two of the biggest Cinderellas in tournament history).
This year's candidates would seem to be Ohio State (1 off, 10 def), Kansas (4,12), Duke (5,3), Texas (19, 1), Pittsburgh (6,21), San Diego State (24,4), Kentucky (7,22), Purdue (18,8) and Syracuse (17,16). Teams that could play into this would be Louisville (36,5), North Carolina (37,7), Connecticut (21,31) and West Virginia (31,29). {Did anyone notice Pittsburgh is the only team in the Southeast here?}
Efficiency can also play into First and Second Round Success. Here are the efficiency numbers for teams the last few years that were a 6 or lower and lost a first round game or a 1 thru 4 who did not advance to the Sweet Sixteen. I will also include overall efficiency as the first number.
2010 First Round Upsets
#3 Georgetown (13, 9, 47)
#4 Vanderbilt (35, 24, 60) - Defeated By Murray State (50, 71, 35)
#5 Temple (22, 75, 7) - Defeated by Cornell (52, 16, 117)
#6 Marquette (33, 22, 57) - Defeated by Washington (30, 36, 31)
#6 Notre Dame (38, 6, 132) - Defeated by Old Dominion (34, 82, 10)
2010 Second Round Surprises
#1 Kansas (2, 2, 8) - Defeated by Northern Iowa (29, 61, 16)
#2 Villanova (21, 12, 62) - Defeated by St. Mary's (42, 20, 88)
#3 Pittsburgh (31, 40, 26) - Defeated by Xavier (14, 14, 39)
#3 New Mexico (54, 27, 90) - Defeated by Washington (30, 36, 31)
#4 Wisconsin (9, 17, 19) - Defeated by Cornell (52, 16, 117)
2009 First Round Upsets
#4 Wake Forest (25, 43, 23) - Defeated by Cleveland State (60, 107, 38)
#5 Utah (30, 63, 26) - Defeated by Arizona (41, 7, 142)
#5 Florida State (36, 100, 12) - Defeated by Wisconsin (29, 36, 49)
#5 Illinois (24, 98, 4) - Defeated by Western Kentucky (89, 56, 163)
#6 West Virginia (9, 18, 14) - Defeated by Dayton (78, 150, 27)
2009 Second Round Surprises
#4 Washington (17, 40, 9) - Defeated by Purdue (18, 54, 5)
2008 First Round Upsets
#4 Vanderbilt (53, 42, 81) - Defeated by Siena (99, 101, 102)
#4 Connecticut (22, 17, 41) - Defeated by San Diego (113, 173, 68)
#5 Drake (27, 5, 77) - Defeated by Western Kentucky (59, 55, 69)
#5 Clemson (13, 29, 12) - Defeated by Villanova (43, 51, 64)
#6 USC (26, 52, 17) - Defeated by Kansas State (17, 20, 23)
2008 Second Round Surprises
#2 Georgetown (7, 18, 6) - Defeated by Davidson (20, 14, 31)
#2 Duke (8, 11, 9) - Defeated by West Virginia (19, 21, 24)
#4 Pittsburgh (21, 8, 54) - Defeated by Michigan State (15, 12, 26)
2007 First Round Upsets
#6 Notre Dame (20, 10, 49) - Defeated by Winthrop (69, 75, 71)
#6 Duke (11, 40, 5) - Defeated by VCU (66, 28, 131)
2007 Second Round Surprises
#2 Wisconsin (8, 26, 6) - Defeated by UNLV (42, 35, 44)
#3 Washington State (29, 54, 19) - Defeated by Vanderbilt (35, 21, 56)
#4 Maryland (10, 34, 8) - Defeated by Butler (25, 16, 48)
#4 Texas (21, 5, 62) - Defeated by USC (27, 41, 24)
#4 Virginia (45, 30, 59) - Defeated by Tennessee (31, 14, 54)
2006 First Round Upsets
#3 Iowa (19, 129, 1)
#4 Kansas (6, 38, 2) - Defeated by Bradley (26, 70, 11)
#5 Syracuse (51, 60, 55) - Defeated by Texas A&M (25, 80, 8)
#5 Nevada (35, 58, 41) - Defeated by Montana (88, 45, 159)
#6 Oklahoma (50, 25, 102) - Defeated by UW-Milwaukee (63, 74, 63)
#6 Michigan State (33, 18, 103) - Defeated by George Mason (23, 49, 18)
2006 Second Round Surprises
#2 Tennessee (22, 8, 79) - Defeated by Wichita State (32, 33, 66)
#2 Ohio State (18, 34, 24) - Defeated by Georgetown (14, 9, 38)
#3 North Carolina (8, 10, 20) - Defeated by George Mason (23, 49, 18)
#4 Illinois (11, 16, 21) - Defeated by Washington (13, 13, 28)
2005 First Round Upsets
#3 Kansas (12, 11, 18)
#4 Syracuse (17, 16, 22) - Defeated by Vermont (71, 60, 99)
#5 Alabama (18, 8, 52) - Defeated by UW-Milwaukee (53, 61, 53)
#6 LSU (39, 21, 87) - Defeated by UAB (59, 65, 58)
2005 Second Round Surprises
#2 Wake Forest (11, 2, 72) - Defeated by West Virginia (30, 18, 78)
#2 Connecticut (13, 26, 7) - Defeated by NC State (20, 14, 39)
#3 Oklahoma (9, 17, 12) - Defeated by Utah (23, 32, 19)
#3 Gonzaga (33, 10, 121) - Defeated by Texas Tech (28, 43, 26)
#4 Florida (6, 13, 9) - Defeated by Villanova (4, 12, 4)
#4 Boston College (25, 20, 46) - Defeated by UW-Milwaukee (53, 61, 53)
2004 First Round Upsets
#5 Florida (24, 10, 69) - Defeated by Manhattan (54, 67, 47)
#5 Providence (25, 34, 24) - Defeated by Pacific (82, 80, 92)
2004 Second Round Surprises
#1 Kentucky (9, 19, 9) - Defeated by UAB (43, 68, 28)
#1 Stanford (16, 47, 6) - Defeated by Alabama (29, 16, 50)
#2 Gonzaga (15, 8, 40) - Defeated by Nevada (22, 39, 15)
#2 Mississippi State (17, 21, 17) - Defeated by Xavier (20, 20, 20)
#3 NC State (8, 3, 33) - Defeated by Vanderbilt (23, 26, 30)
#4 Maryland (19, 44, 7) - Defeated by Syracuse (28, 27, 36)
#4 Cincinnati (11, 14, 19) - Defeated by Illinois (12, 6, 35)
2003 First Round Upsets
#4 Dayton (48, 7, 160) - Defeated by Tulsa (43, 62, 37)
#5 Mississippi State (12, 59, 3) - Defeated by Butler (45, 16, 124)
#6 Creighton (30, 27, 46) - Defeated by Central Michigan (72, 42, 122)
2003 Second Round Surprises
#2 Wake Forest (22, 18, 38) - Defeated by Auburn (44, 77, 29)
#2 Florida (14, 8, 34) - Defeated by Michigan State (15, 40, 10)
#3 Xavier (19, 19, 28) - Defeated by Maryland (6, 23, 5)
#4 Stanford (35, 36, 43) - Defeated by Connecticut (21, 24, 24)
#4 Louisville (13, 10, 26) - Defeated by Butler (45, 16, 124)
#4 Illinois (5, 14, 8) - Defeated by Notre Dame (32, 9, 113)
28 out of 32 First Round Upsets were lost by a 6 seed or higher with either an offensive or defensive efficiency rating above 34 (11 offense, 14 defense, 3 both). Also, 29 of the 32 were of a 4-6 seed (it does not seem prudent to pick against a 1, 2 or 3 in round 1). It does not mean that a team with one of these attributes always is upset, please keep that in mind. This is just a mechanism for creating the pool of upset candidates. That pool for 2011 based on this stat is Wisconsin (9, 2, 63), Louisville (12, 36, 5), Arizona (15, 14, 67), Cincinnati (23, 55, 15), Kansas State (29, 50, 27), Georgetown (31, 27, 52), Vanderbilt (32, 15, 76), St. John's (35, 47, 35) and Xavier (37, 30, 61).
The data on who beats these teams is not as good. 18 of the 28 were beaten by teams superior in either offensive or defensive efficiency. Out of the 10 winners who were not superior in either category, 6 had an attribute in the Top 60 and 9 in the Top 80. The opponents for the above 9 teams are Belmont (18, 32, 19), Morehead State (95, 111, 91), Memphis (85, 134, 60), Missouri (34, 28, 53), Utah State (16, 57, 6), USC (44, 76, 30) or VCU (84, 59, 143), Richmond (46, 48, 51), Gonzaga (27, 49, 26) and Marquette (33, 20, 71). Morehead State would thus be eliminated and the pool of first round upsets sits at 8 potential.
There were 37 top 4 seeds to lose in the second round the last 8 years. 20 of them also had either an offensive or defensive efficiency rating of 34 or higher, similar to the first round pool. Of the 17 that didn't, 14 were defeated by a team with a Top 20 attribute, 16 a Top 30 and all a Top 35. Wisconsin would remain susceptible if they advance, along with Notre Dame (10, 3, 62), BYU (13, 8, 37), North Carolina (14, 37, 7) and Florida (19, 16, 40). Additional teams who could play a team with a top 20 attribute are North Carolina again (Washington 15, 9, 42), Texas (Arizona 25, 14, 67), Louisville (Vanderbilt 32, 15, 76), Syracuse (Marquette 33, 20, 71), Notre Dame again (Florida State 42, 153, 2), Wisconsin again (Utah State 16, 57, 6), Kansas (UNLV 22, 54, 14) and Connecticut (Cincinnati 23, 55, 15).
Looking further, 36 of the 37 top 4 seeds were defeated by a team with at least one attribute in the top 35, 33 in the top 30. This makes Duke and Pitt safe, with Florida and San Diego State meeting the 30 criteria for being safe but not the 35. This is not perfect data, but something to work with.
Scoring Margin
Scoring Margin is often a great determinant of tournament success. Belmont leads the way in scoring margin at 18.4, but that is a bit skewed due to the level of competition. Similarly, Utah State at 13.9 places 6th and George Mason 11.8 and Gonzaga 11.6 place high as well. While it cannot be completely ignored for these schools, it is a better indicator for power conference teams. Here is the 2010-11 scoring margins.
Belmont 18.4
Ohio St. 17.3
Kansas 17.1
Duke 16.8
BYU 14.1
Utah St. 13.9
Texas 13.5
San Diego St. 13.2
Pittsburgh 13.1
Washington 13.1
Kentucky 12.6
George Mason 11.8
Gonzaga 11.6
Purdue 11.2
Louisville 10.7
Notre Dame 10.4
Syracuse 10.3
Missouri 9.9
Wisconsin 9.9
Cincinnati 9.8
UNLV 9.3
Richmond 9.2
Arizona 9.1
Oakland 9
North Carolina 8.9
Temple 8.8
Long Island 8.7
Vanderbilt 8.6
Florida 8.5
Butler 8.2
Morehead St. 8.1
Xavier 8.1
Texas A&M 7.9
Old Dominion 7.5
Clemson 7.3
Bucknell 7.3
Villanova 7.2
Florida St. 7.1
Kansas St. 7.1
Connecticut 7
Marquette 7
UAB 6.6
Princeton 6.5
Northern Colo. 6.5
Illinois 6.1
Wofford 6
UNC Asheville 6
West Virginia 5.5
Hampton 5.3
Georgetown 4.9
Akron 4.9
Georgia 4.5
UCLA 4.2
Southern California 4.1
VCU 4.1
Memphis 3.9
St. John's (NY) 3.7
Michigan 3.4
Tennessee 3.3
UC Santa Barbara 3
Indiana St. 2.4
Michigan St. 2.3
Boston U. 2
St. Peter's 1.5
UTSA 1.3
UALR 1
Penn St. 0.6
Alabama St. -2.3
Obviously, Ohio State, Duke and Kansas rise to the top again. The Big East is interesting because with the level of competition this year, you would expect their numbers to be low, and for the most part they are. North Carolina and Florida jump out here as teams who probably don't have enough to make a Final Four run.
Created Possession Margin
Created possession margin is simply your rebound margin plus your turnover margin, essentially calculating how many more possessions you will get than your opponent. Here are the numbers (rebound, turnover, total):
Old Dominion 12.2 -1 11.2
Pittsburgh 10.4 -0.3 10.1
Ohio St. 4.8 4.9 9.7
Morehead St. 9.2 0.1 9.3
Belmont 3.9 5.2 9.1
Kansas 7.8 0.9 8.7
Utah St. 8 0.3 8.3
San Diego St. 6.7 1.6 8.3
Texas 6.6 1.2 7.8
Kansas St. 6.8 0.9 7.7
Cincinnati 4.7 2.8 7.5
North Carolina 6.5 0.7 7.2
Washington 4.6 2.6 7.2
Gonzaga 5.9 1.2 7.1
Texas A&M 6.5 0.4 6.9
BYU 3.4 3.4 6.8
Florida 6.1 0.1 6.2
Wisconsin 3.8 2.3 6.1
Kentucky 4.2 1.6 5.8
Syracuse 3.7 1.9 5.6
Duke 2.7 2.8 5.5
Purdue 1.5 4 5.5
Northern Colo. 5.4 -0.1 5.3
UNLV 1.7 3.6 5.3
Temple 2.8 2.5 5.3
Tennessee 4.2 0.9 5.1
George Mason 2.3 2.7 5
Butler 3.4 1.6 5
Xavier 4.4 0.5 4.9
Marquette 2.7 2.1 4.8
Villanova 4.6 0.2 4.8
Long Island 5.1 -0.4 4.7
Connecticut 4.1 0.4 4.5
Notre Dame 4.5 -0.3 4.2
Florida St. 4.7 -0.6 4.1
Princeton 4.2 -0.2 4
St. John's (NY) 0.1 3.7 3.8
Arizona 3.9 -0.1 3.8
Oakland 5.2 -1.5 3.7
Clemson 1.9 1.8 3.7
Missouri -1.9 5.5 3.6
Louisville 0.5 3 3.5
West Virginia 3.5 0 3.5
Georgia 4.7 -1.2 3.
Michigan St. 4.2 -1.3 2.9
Wofford 1.2 1.6 2.8
UAB 2.5 0.2 2.7
UNC Asheville -0.4 2.6 2.2
Southern California 1.2 0.6 1.8
UCLA 4.5 -2.8 1.7
Penn St. 1.4 0.2 1.6
Vanderbilt 2.2 -0.9 1.3
Illinois 1.7 -0.5 1.2
Bucknell 0.4 0.6 1
Alabama St. 0.9 -0.2 0.7
Georgetown 2.5 -1.9 0.6
Indiana St. 1.5 -1 0.5
UALR -1.5 2 0.5
Richmond -1.7 2 0.3
Memphis 0.7 -0.4 0.3
Boston U. 0.8 -0.7 0.1
VCU -3.7 3.3 -0.4
Michigan -1.9 1.4 -0.5
Akron -2.8 2.2 -0.6
Hampton -4.3 3.5 -0.8
UTSA -1.4 0.6 -0.8
UC Santa Barbara -0.3 -0.7 -1
St. Peter's -0.5 -0.9 -1.4
The usual suspects, Pittsburgh, Ohio State and Kansas toward the top here. San Diego State and Texas not far behind. Old Dominion would look like a nightmare for most teams, but a second round date with Pittsburgh provides them a clone match-up.
Guard Play
Experienced, savvy, talented guards can make a big difference in March. Here are some of the potential difference makers here:
Duke - Nolan Smith
Ohio State - William Buford, Jon Diebler
Connecticut - Kemba Walker
BYU - Jimmer Fredette
Notre Dame - Ben Hansborough
Wisconsin - Jordan Taylor
Kansas State - Jacob Pullen
Xavier - Tu Holloway
Washington - Isaiah Thomas
Michigan State - Kalin Lucas
Pittsburgh - Brad Wanamaker
Illinois - Demetri McCamey
Villanova - Corey Fisher, Corey Stokes
St. John's - Dwight Hardy
Georgetown - Austin Freeman
Louisville - Preston Knowles
Richmond - Kevin Anderson
Experience
Experience can be measured two ways - tournament experience and overall experience. Here are some observations here:
Experienced Rosters:
Duke has the two seniors, Singler and Smith, plus the Plumlees and Dawkins were through it last year.
Ohio State has the three seniors and one junior to go along with their 3 freshman.
Kansas starts five upperclassmen, but none have been stars in any tourney run.
Pittsburgh starts five upperclassmen who have yet to make a deep run.
Notre Dame starts five seniors, but they also have not made any big tourney runs for experience.
San Diego State has four seniors in their rotation.
Purdue starts four upperclassmen including two big-time seniors in Johnson and Moore.
Florida and BYU start four upperclassmen, including Jimmer of course.
Louisville, Vanderbilt and Georgetown all start four upperclassmen.
Wisconsin starts four upperclassmen, including Taylor and Leuer.
West Virginia starts all upperclassmen.
Xavier starts four upperclassmen who all have good tourney experience.
St. John's starts four seniors with no tournament experience.
Temple has good experience with Fernandez, Moore and Allen all upperclassmen.
George Mason starts four upperclassmen, but they all make their first tourney appearance.
Old Dominion starts four seniors who made the second round last year.
Villanova starts three seniors with tourney experience.
Illinois starts four seniors.
Georgia starts five upperclassmen, but they lack NCAA experience.
Michigan State starts four upperclassmen with loads of NCAA experience.
Penn State starts four seniors, but all are playing in their first NCAA tournament.
Missouri has four juniors who average 10 PPG.
Marquette starts four upperclassmen, but they have little tourney experience in their current roles.
USC starts five upperclassmen lacking in tourney experience.
VCU also starts five upperclassmen.
Richmond starts four upperclassmen.
Clemson starts four upperclassmen who have yet to win a tournament game.
Oakland has 4 upperclassmen who combined average 58 PPG.
Utah State and Wofford both start five upperclassmen who have been to the tourney before.
Inexperienced Rosters:
North Carolina starts no seniors and are led by freshman.
Connecticut is very young outside of Kemba Walker.
Texas' three top players are freshman or sophomores.
Kentucky is very young with three prominent freshman.
Arizona has no senior starters.
Memphis starts four freshman.
Michigan is very, very young.
UCLA starts no seniors.
There you have it. Five good factors to help you fill out your bracket. Not one of them is going to work on its own every year, but when you get to a close match-up, check out these five factors.
Efficiency
The last 28 Final Four participants have been in the Top 30 in defensive efficiency. 2003, the last time 2 participants were outside this mark, Marquette and Texas ranked #1 and #3 in offensive efficiency, respectively. 29 out of the last 32 ranked in the Top 30 in offensive efficiency as well, the outliers being George Mason, LSU and Butler (the list includes two of the biggest Cinderellas in tournament history).
This year's candidates would seem to be Ohio State (1 off, 10 def), Kansas (4,12), Duke (5,3), Texas (19, 1), Pittsburgh (6,21), San Diego State (24,4), Kentucky (7,22), Purdue (18,8) and Syracuse (17,16). Teams that could play into this would be Louisville (36,5), North Carolina (37,7), Connecticut (21,31) and West Virginia (31,29). {Did anyone notice Pittsburgh is the only team in the Southeast here?}
Efficiency can also play into First and Second Round Success. Here are the efficiency numbers for teams the last few years that were a 6 or lower and lost a first round game or a 1 thru 4 who did not advance to the Sweet Sixteen. I will also include overall efficiency as the first number.
2010 First Round Upsets
#3 Georgetown (13, 9, 47)
#4 Vanderbilt (35, 24, 60) - Defeated By Murray State (50, 71, 35)
#5 Temple (22, 75, 7) - Defeated by Cornell (52, 16, 117)
#6 Marquette (33, 22, 57) - Defeated by Washington (30, 36, 31)
#6 Notre Dame (38, 6, 132) - Defeated by Old Dominion (34, 82, 10)
2010 Second Round Surprises
#1 Kansas (2, 2, 8) - Defeated by Northern Iowa (29, 61, 16)
#2 Villanova (21, 12, 62) - Defeated by St. Mary's (42, 20, 88)
#3 Pittsburgh (31, 40, 26) - Defeated by Xavier (14, 14, 39)
#3 New Mexico (54, 27, 90) - Defeated by Washington (30, 36, 31)
#4 Wisconsin (9, 17, 19) - Defeated by Cornell (52, 16, 117)
2009 First Round Upsets
#4 Wake Forest (25, 43, 23) - Defeated by Cleveland State (60, 107, 38)
#5 Utah (30, 63, 26) - Defeated by Arizona (41, 7, 142)
#5 Florida State (36, 100, 12) - Defeated by Wisconsin (29, 36, 49)
#5 Illinois (24, 98, 4) - Defeated by Western Kentucky (89, 56, 163)
#6 West Virginia (9, 18, 14) - Defeated by Dayton (78, 150, 27)
2009 Second Round Surprises
#4 Washington (17, 40, 9) - Defeated by Purdue (18, 54, 5)
2008 First Round Upsets
#4 Vanderbilt (53, 42, 81) - Defeated by Siena (99, 101, 102)
#4 Connecticut (22, 17, 41) - Defeated by San Diego (113, 173, 68)
#5 Drake (27, 5, 77) - Defeated by Western Kentucky (59, 55, 69)
#5 Clemson (13, 29, 12) - Defeated by Villanova (43, 51, 64)
#6 USC (26, 52, 17) - Defeated by Kansas State (17, 20, 23)
2008 Second Round Surprises
#2 Georgetown (7, 18, 6) - Defeated by Davidson (20, 14, 31)
#2 Duke (8, 11, 9) - Defeated by West Virginia (19, 21, 24)
#4 Pittsburgh (21, 8, 54) - Defeated by Michigan State (15, 12, 26)
2007 First Round Upsets
#6 Notre Dame (20, 10, 49) - Defeated by Winthrop (69, 75, 71)
#6 Duke (11, 40, 5) - Defeated by VCU (66, 28, 131)
2007 Second Round Surprises
#2 Wisconsin (8, 26, 6) - Defeated by UNLV (42, 35, 44)
#3 Washington State (29, 54, 19) - Defeated by Vanderbilt (35, 21, 56)
#4 Maryland (10, 34, 8) - Defeated by Butler (25, 16, 48)
#4 Texas (21, 5, 62) - Defeated by USC (27, 41, 24)
#4 Virginia (45, 30, 59) - Defeated by Tennessee (31, 14, 54)
2006 First Round Upsets
#3 Iowa (19, 129, 1)
#4 Kansas (6, 38, 2) - Defeated by Bradley (26, 70, 11)
#5 Syracuse (51, 60, 55) - Defeated by Texas A&M (25, 80, 8)
#5 Nevada (35, 58, 41) - Defeated by Montana (88, 45, 159)
#6 Oklahoma (50, 25, 102) - Defeated by UW-Milwaukee (63, 74, 63)
#6 Michigan State (33, 18, 103) - Defeated by George Mason (23, 49, 18)
2006 Second Round Surprises
#2 Tennessee (22, 8, 79) - Defeated by Wichita State (32, 33, 66)
#2 Ohio State (18, 34, 24) - Defeated by Georgetown (14, 9, 38)
#3 North Carolina (8, 10, 20) - Defeated by George Mason (23, 49, 18)
#4 Illinois (11, 16, 21) - Defeated by Washington (13, 13, 28)
2005 First Round Upsets
#3 Kansas (12, 11, 18)
#4 Syracuse (17, 16, 22) - Defeated by Vermont (71, 60, 99)
#5 Alabama (18, 8, 52) - Defeated by UW-Milwaukee (53, 61, 53)
#6 LSU (39, 21, 87) - Defeated by UAB (59, 65, 58)
2005 Second Round Surprises
#2 Wake Forest (11, 2, 72) - Defeated by West Virginia (30, 18, 78)
#2 Connecticut (13, 26, 7) - Defeated by NC State (20, 14, 39)
#3 Oklahoma (9, 17, 12) - Defeated by Utah (23, 32, 19)
#3 Gonzaga (33, 10, 121) - Defeated by Texas Tech (28, 43, 26)
#4 Florida (6, 13, 9) - Defeated by Villanova (4, 12, 4)
#4 Boston College (25, 20, 46) - Defeated by UW-Milwaukee (53, 61, 53)
2004 First Round Upsets
#5 Florida (24, 10, 69) - Defeated by Manhattan (54, 67, 47)
#5 Providence (25, 34, 24) - Defeated by Pacific (82, 80, 92)
2004 Second Round Surprises
#1 Kentucky (9, 19, 9) - Defeated by UAB (43, 68, 28)
#1 Stanford (16, 47, 6) - Defeated by Alabama (29, 16, 50)
#2 Gonzaga (15, 8, 40) - Defeated by Nevada (22, 39, 15)
#2 Mississippi State (17, 21, 17) - Defeated by Xavier (20, 20, 20)
#3 NC State (8, 3, 33) - Defeated by Vanderbilt (23, 26, 30)
#4 Maryland (19, 44, 7) - Defeated by Syracuse (28, 27, 36)
#4 Cincinnati (11, 14, 19) - Defeated by Illinois (12, 6, 35)
2003 First Round Upsets
#4 Dayton (48, 7, 160) - Defeated by Tulsa (43, 62, 37)
#5 Mississippi State (12, 59, 3) - Defeated by Butler (45, 16, 124)
#6 Creighton (30, 27, 46) - Defeated by Central Michigan (72, 42, 122)
2003 Second Round Surprises
#2 Wake Forest (22, 18, 38) - Defeated by Auburn (44, 77, 29)
#2 Florida (14, 8, 34) - Defeated by Michigan State (15, 40, 10)
#3 Xavier (19, 19, 28) - Defeated by Maryland (6, 23, 5)
#4 Stanford (35, 36, 43) - Defeated by Connecticut (21, 24, 24)
#4 Louisville (13, 10, 26) - Defeated by Butler (45, 16, 124)
#4 Illinois (5, 14, 8) - Defeated by Notre Dame (32, 9, 113)
28 out of 32 First Round Upsets were lost by a 6 seed or higher with either an offensive or defensive efficiency rating above 34 (11 offense, 14 defense, 3 both). Also, 29 of the 32 were of a 4-6 seed (it does not seem prudent to pick against a 1, 2 or 3 in round 1). It does not mean that a team with one of these attributes always is upset, please keep that in mind. This is just a mechanism for creating the pool of upset candidates. That pool for 2011 based on this stat is Wisconsin (9, 2, 63), Louisville (12, 36, 5), Arizona (15, 14, 67), Cincinnati (23, 55, 15), Kansas State (29, 50, 27), Georgetown (31, 27, 52), Vanderbilt (32, 15, 76), St. John's (35, 47, 35) and Xavier (37, 30, 61).
The data on who beats these teams is not as good. 18 of the 28 were beaten by teams superior in either offensive or defensive efficiency. Out of the 10 winners who were not superior in either category, 6 had an attribute in the Top 60 and 9 in the Top 80. The opponents for the above 9 teams are Belmont (18, 32, 19), Morehead State (95, 111, 91), Memphis (85, 134, 60), Missouri (34, 28, 53), Utah State (16, 57, 6), USC (44, 76, 30) or VCU (84, 59, 143), Richmond (46, 48, 51), Gonzaga (27, 49, 26) and Marquette (33, 20, 71). Morehead State would thus be eliminated and the pool of first round upsets sits at 8 potential.
There were 37 top 4 seeds to lose in the second round the last 8 years. 20 of them also had either an offensive or defensive efficiency rating of 34 or higher, similar to the first round pool. Of the 17 that didn't, 14 were defeated by a team with a Top 20 attribute, 16 a Top 30 and all a Top 35. Wisconsin would remain susceptible if they advance, along with Notre Dame (10, 3, 62), BYU (13, 8, 37), North Carolina (14, 37, 7) and Florida (19, 16, 40). Additional teams who could play a team with a top 20 attribute are North Carolina again (Washington 15, 9, 42), Texas (Arizona 25, 14, 67), Louisville (Vanderbilt 32, 15, 76), Syracuse (Marquette 33, 20, 71), Notre Dame again (Florida State 42, 153, 2), Wisconsin again (Utah State 16, 57, 6), Kansas (UNLV 22, 54, 14) and Connecticut (Cincinnati 23, 55, 15).
Looking further, 36 of the 37 top 4 seeds were defeated by a team with at least one attribute in the top 35, 33 in the top 30. This makes Duke and Pitt safe, with Florida and San Diego State meeting the 30 criteria for being safe but not the 35. This is not perfect data, but something to work with.
Scoring Margin
Scoring Margin is often a great determinant of tournament success. Belmont leads the way in scoring margin at 18.4, but that is a bit skewed due to the level of competition. Similarly, Utah State at 13.9 places 6th and George Mason 11.8 and Gonzaga 11.6 place high as well. While it cannot be completely ignored for these schools, it is a better indicator for power conference teams. Here is the 2010-11 scoring margins.
Belmont 18.4
Ohio St. 17.3
Kansas 17.1
Duke 16.8
BYU 14.1
Utah St. 13.9
Texas 13.5
San Diego St. 13.2
Pittsburgh 13.1
Washington 13.1
Kentucky 12.6
George Mason 11.8
Gonzaga 11.6
Purdue 11.2
Louisville 10.7
Notre Dame 10.4
Syracuse 10.3
Missouri 9.9
Wisconsin 9.9
Cincinnati 9.8
UNLV 9.3
Richmond 9.2
Arizona 9.1
Oakland 9
North Carolina 8.9
Temple 8.8
Long Island 8.7
Vanderbilt 8.6
Florida 8.5
Butler 8.2
Morehead St. 8.1
Xavier 8.1
Texas A&M 7.9
Old Dominion 7.5
Clemson 7.3
Bucknell 7.3
Villanova 7.2
Florida St. 7.1
Kansas St. 7.1
Connecticut 7
Marquette 7
UAB 6.6
Princeton 6.5
Northern Colo. 6.5
Illinois 6.1
Wofford 6
UNC Asheville 6
West Virginia 5.5
Hampton 5.3
Georgetown 4.9
Akron 4.9
Georgia 4.5
UCLA 4.2
Southern California 4.1
VCU 4.1
Memphis 3.9
St. John's (NY) 3.7
Michigan 3.4
Tennessee 3.3
UC Santa Barbara 3
Indiana St. 2.4
Michigan St. 2.3
Boston U. 2
St. Peter's 1.5
UTSA 1.3
UALR 1
Penn St. 0.6
Alabama St. -2.3
Obviously, Ohio State, Duke and Kansas rise to the top again. The Big East is interesting because with the level of competition this year, you would expect their numbers to be low, and for the most part they are. North Carolina and Florida jump out here as teams who probably don't have enough to make a Final Four run.
Created Possession Margin
Created possession margin is simply your rebound margin plus your turnover margin, essentially calculating how many more possessions you will get than your opponent. Here are the numbers (rebound, turnover, total):
Old Dominion 12.2 -1 11.2
Pittsburgh 10.4 -0.3 10.1
Ohio St. 4.8 4.9 9.7
Morehead St. 9.2 0.1 9.3
Belmont 3.9 5.2 9.1
Kansas 7.8 0.9 8.7
Utah St. 8 0.3 8.3
San Diego St. 6.7 1.6 8.3
Texas 6.6 1.2 7.8
Kansas St. 6.8 0.9 7.7
Cincinnati 4.7 2.8 7.5
North Carolina 6.5 0.7 7.2
Washington 4.6 2.6 7.2
Gonzaga 5.9 1.2 7.1
Texas A&M 6.5 0.4 6.9
BYU 3.4 3.4 6.8
Florida 6.1 0.1 6.2
Wisconsin 3.8 2.3 6.1
Kentucky 4.2 1.6 5.8
Syracuse 3.7 1.9 5.6
Duke 2.7 2.8 5.5
Purdue 1.5 4 5.5
Northern Colo. 5.4 -0.1 5.3
UNLV 1.7 3.6 5.3
Temple 2.8 2.5 5.3
Tennessee 4.2 0.9 5.1
George Mason 2.3 2.7 5
Butler 3.4 1.6 5
Xavier 4.4 0.5 4.9
Marquette 2.7 2.1 4.8
Villanova 4.6 0.2 4.8
Long Island 5.1 -0.4 4.7
Connecticut 4.1 0.4 4.5
Notre Dame 4.5 -0.3 4.2
Florida St. 4.7 -0.6 4.1
Princeton 4.2 -0.2 4
St. John's (NY) 0.1 3.7 3.8
Arizona 3.9 -0.1 3.8
Oakland 5.2 -1.5 3.7
Clemson 1.9 1.8 3.7
Missouri -1.9 5.5 3.6
Louisville 0.5 3 3.5
West Virginia 3.5 0 3.5
Georgia 4.7 -1.2 3.
Michigan St. 4.2 -1.3 2.9
Wofford 1.2 1.6 2.8
UAB 2.5 0.2 2.7
UNC Asheville -0.4 2.6 2.2
Southern California 1.2 0.6 1.8
UCLA 4.5 -2.8 1.7
Penn St. 1.4 0.2 1.6
Vanderbilt 2.2 -0.9 1.3
Illinois 1.7 -0.5 1.2
Bucknell 0.4 0.6 1
Alabama St. 0.9 -0.2 0.7
Georgetown 2.5 -1.9 0.6
Indiana St. 1.5 -1 0.5
UALR -1.5 2 0.5
Richmond -1.7 2 0.3
Memphis 0.7 -0.4 0.3
Boston U. 0.8 -0.7 0.1
VCU -3.7 3.3 -0.4
Michigan -1.9 1.4 -0.5
Akron -2.8 2.2 -0.6
Hampton -4.3 3.5 -0.8
UTSA -1.4 0.6 -0.8
UC Santa Barbara -0.3 -0.7 -1
St. Peter's -0.5 -0.9 -1.4
The usual suspects, Pittsburgh, Ohio State and Kansas toward the top here. San Diego State and Texas not far behind. Old Dominion would look like a nightmare for most teams, but a second round date with Pittsburgh provides them a clone match-up.
Guard Play
Experienced, savvy, talented guards can make a big difference in March. Here are some of the potential difference makers here:
Duke - Nolan Smith
Ohio State - William Buford, Jon Diebler
Connecticut - Kemba Walker
BYU - Jimmer Fredette
Notre Dame - Ben Hansborough
Wisconsin - Jordan Taylor
Kansas State - Jacob Pullen
Xavier - Tu Holloway
Washington - Isaiah Thomas
Michigan State - Kalin Lucas
Pittsburgh - Brad Wanamaker
Illinois - Demetri McCamey
Villanova - Corey Fisher, Corey Stokes
St. John's - Dwight Hardy
Georgetown - Austin Freeman
Louisville - Preston Knowles
Richmond - Kevin Anderson
Experience
Experience can be measured two ways - tournament experience and overall experience. Here are some observations here:
Experienced Rosters:
Duke has the two seniors, Singler and Smith, plus the Plumlees and Dawkins were through it last year.
Ohio State has the three seniors and one junior to go along with their 3 freshman.
Kansas starts five upperclassmen, but none have been stars in any tourney run.
Pittsburgh starts five upperclassmen who have yet to make a deep run.
Notre Dame starts five seniors, but they also have not made any big tourney runs for experience.
San Diego State has four seniors in their rotation.
Purdue starts four upperclassmen including two big-time seniors in Johnson and Moore.
Florida and BYU start four upperclassmen, including Jimmer of course.
Louisville, Vanderbilt and Georgetown all start four upperclassmen.
Wisconsin starts four upperclassmen, including Taylor and Leuer.
West Virginia starts all upperclassmen.
Xavier starts four upperclassmen who all have good tourney experience.
St. John's starts four seniors with no tournament experience.
Temple has good experience with Fernandez, Moore and Allen all upperclassmen.
George Mason starts four upperclassmen, but they all make their first tourney appearance.
Old Dominion starts four seniors who made the second round last year.
Villanova starts three seniors with tourney experience.
Illinois starts four seniors.
Georgia starts five upperclassmen, but they lack NCAA experience.
Michigan State starts four upperclassmen with loads of NCAA experience.
Penn State starts four seniors, but all are playing in their first NCAA tournament.
Missouri has four juniors who average 10 PPG.
Marquette starts four upperclassmen, but they have little tourney experience in their current roles.
USC starts five upperclassmen lacking in tourney experience.
VCU also starts five upperclassmen.
Richmond starts four upperclassmen.
Clemson starts four upperclassmen who have yet to win a tournament game.
Oakland has 4 upperclassmen who combined average 58 PPG.
Utah State and Wofford both start five upperclassmen who have been to the tourney before.
Inexperienced Rosters:
North Carolina starts no seniors and are led by freshman.
Connecticut is very young outside of Kemba Walker.
Texas' three top players are freshman or sophomores.
Kentucky is very young with three prominent freshman.
Arizona has no senior starters.
Memphis starts four freshman.
Michigan is very, very young.
UCLA starts no seniors.
There you have it. Five good factors to help you fill out your bracket. Not one of them is going to work on its own every year, but when you get to a close match-up, check out these five factors.
Monday, March 14, 2011
NCAA Selection Committee Commandments
Year two of bracketiatry is now complete. I am pleased to say that I was the 4th most accurate bracket contributor on the web based upon the bracket matrix (Matrix)!! I also continue to learn things about the selection process, some new to me this year and some that I picked up on in time for this year's bracket.
NCAA Selection Committee Commandments
1. Thou shall place an ACC team on the #1 line if at all possible. A lot of talk leading up to the bracket centered around whether Duke would get a #1 seed or whether the Big East would garner two. Once Duke made the finals of the ACC tournament, I don't think the selection committee blinked an eye at it the rest of the weekend.
2. Thou shall never have Duke or North Carolina play a regional outside of their home state. Pittsburgh, the overall #3 seed, is closer to Cleveland than to Washington D.C. In order to have one of the 16 vs 16 play-in games played on Thursday, Pittsburgh was moved to Washington D.C. (albeit just an extra 100 miles). The overall #4 seed Duke, could also have moved just 100 miles to play in D.C. instead of Charlotte, but of course, they received preferential treatment.
3. Thou shall ignore the results of Sunday Conference Tournament games unless a surprise automatic bid is on the line. North Carolina and Florida were beaten soundly but were able to maintain their placement on the #2 line. Why? Even 3 hours before the big reveal is too late to start shifting teams on seed lines. There are two many dominoes that fall every time you move a team. While I listened to this commandment and left these teams alone, I broke this rule and switched BYU and Kentucky around after the Wildcats impressive win. Never again.
4. Thou shall never seed a team from the Colonial Athletic Association higher than 8. Old Dominion had one of the best mid-major resumes in recent history but garnered only a #9 seed. I agree my assessment of a #6 was a bit over-zealous, but I deemed their resume to be more impressive than Xavier and Temple out of the Atlantic 10 who were sure to get top 7 seeds. Beyond that, can anyone explain how they are the #9 and Butler the #8 within their own game? Old Dominion's resume dwarfs Butler's.
5. Thou shall always put Virginia Tech on the wrong side of the bubble. I have no argument for their inclusion in the tournament, but it seems no matter what they do, Seth Greenberg can't get them in. Schedule harder-check! Beat a top team-check! Win an ACC tournament game against a fellow bubble team-check! Get left out of the dance once again-check!!
6. Thou shall include two mid-majors in the first-four games in the middle of the bracket. I had a gut feeling on this one, just made the wrong call between St. Mary's and UAB. With the expansion of the tournament by three teams, the committee would have looked like Big 6 propagandists if the play-in games were USC-Virginia Tech and Clemson-Colorado. In my opinion, I am all for giving deserving mid-majors this chance.
7. Thou shall be lazy in seeding teams despite having the entire weekend. My biggest beef here is with the two potential Big East vs Big East 2nd round games. I know with 11 Big East teams the rules no longer applied. Still, to move one of the 6 seeds up or down a line and have Marquette be a 10 or 12 are not hard changes to make. I dealt with this for 6 weeks of bracketing. It is not overly difficult.
8. Thou shall ignore zero top 50 victories if such team is from the ACC. Clemson has zero top 50 wins. They had 6 chances, including blowing a big lead against North Carolina in the ACC semis. If you think about it, there are 18 teams seeded 13 or lower that are basically the automatic bids from mid to low major conferences. That means the top 50 teams receive the rest of the automatic and at-large bids. Clemson has proven they cannot beat these teams. Yes, Colorado had 12 chances, but were successful 5 times, including road and neutral wins against a 5 seed. Furthermore, Clemson beat only two teams in the field, Florida State and Wofford, both at home.
9. Thou shall make some unusual geographical decisions. If I am Syracuse, the prospect of playing the 6 seed Xavier in their home state does not seem advantageous. I understand only top 4 seeds are to be protected, but St. John's drawing Gonzaga in Denver and Washington getting Georgia in Charlotte are two other examples of site advantages for lower seeds.
10. Thou shall create the most exciting 3 weeks of the year. With all that is said above, the committee does a wonderful job at providing a tournament matched by no other. I now look forward to the bracket filling itself out.
NCAA Selection Committee Commandments
1. Thou shall place an ACC team on the #1 line if at all possible. A lot of talk leading up to the bracket centered around whether Duke would get a #1 seed or whether the Big East would garner two. Once Duke made the finals of the ACC tournament, I don't think the selection committee blinked an eye at it the rest of the weekend.
2. Thou shall never have Duke or North Carolina play a regional outside of their home state. Pittsburgh, the overall #3 seed, is closer to Cleveland than to Washington D.C. In order to have one of the 16 vs 16 play-in games played on Thursday, Pittsburgh was moved to Washington D.C. (albeit just an extra 100 miles). The overall #4 seed Duke, could also have moved just 100 miles to play in D.C. instead of Charlotte, but of course, they received preferential treatment.
3. Thou shall ignore the results of Sunday Conference Tournament games unless a surprise automatic bid is on the line. North Carolina and Florida were beaten soundly but were able to maintain their placement on the #2 line. Why? Even 3 hours before the big reveal is too late to start shifting teams on seed lines. There are two many dominoes that fall every time you move a team. While I listened to this commandment and left these teams alone, I broke this rule and switched BYU and Kentucky around after the Wildcats impressive win. Never again.
4. Thou shall never seed a team from the Colonial Athletic Association higher than 8. Old Dominion had one of the best mid-major resumes in recent history but garnered only a #9 seed. I agree my assessment of a #6 was a bit over-zealous, but I deemed their resume to be more impressive than Xavier and Temple out of the Atlantic 10 who were sure to get top 7 seeds. Beyond that, can anyone explain how they are the #9 and Butler the #8 within their own game? Old Dominion's resume dwarfs Butler's.
5. Thou shall always put Virginia Tech on the wrong side of the bubble. I have no argument for their inclusion in the tournament, but it seems no matter what they do, Seth Greenberg can't get them in. Schedule harder-check! Beat a top team-check! Win an ACC tournament game against a fellow bubble team-check! Get left out of the dance once again-check!!
6. Thou shall include two mid-majors in the first-four games in the middle of the bracket. I had a gut feeling on this one, just made the wrong call between St. Mary's and UAB. With the expansion of the tournament by three teams, the committee would have looked like Big 6 propagandists if the play-in games were USC-Virginia Tech and Clemson-Colorado. In my opinion, I am all for giving deserving mid-majors this chance.
7. Thou shall be lazy in seeding teams despite having the entire weekend. My biggest beef here is with the two potential Big East vs Big East 2nd round games. I know with 11 Big East teams the rules no longer applied. Still, to move one of the 6 seeds up or down a line and have Marquette be a 10 or 12 are not hard changes to make. I dealt with this for 6 weeks of bracketing. It is not overly difficult.
8. Thou shall ignore zero top 50 victories if such team is from the ACC. Clemson has zero top 50 wins. They had 6 chances, including blowing a big lead against North Carolina in the ACC semis. If you think about it, there are 18 teams seeded 13 or lower that are basically the automatic bids from mid to low major conferences. That means the top 50 teams receive the rest of the automatic and at-large bids. Clemson has proven they cannot beat these teams. Yes, Colorado had 12 chances, but were successful 5 times, including road and neutral wins against a 5 seed. Furthermore, Clemson beat only two teams in the field, Florida State and Wofford, both at home.
9. Thou shall make some unusual geographical decisions. If I am Syracuse, the prospect of playing the 6 seed Xavier in their home state does not seem advantageous. I understand only top 4 seeds are to be protected, but St. John's drawing Gonzaga in Denver and Washington getting Georgia in Charlotte are two other examples of site advantages for lower seeds.
10. Thou shall create the most exciting 3 weeks of the year. With all that is said above, the committee does a wonderful job at providing a tournament matched by no other. I now look forward to the bracket filling itself out.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)