Field of 68 - FINAL BRACKET

Midwest Regional (Overall #1)
(1)  Louisville vs (16)  Southern/North Carolina A&T
Lexington, KY
(8)  Colorado State vs (9)  North Carolina State

(5)  Oklahoma State vs (12)  Akron
San Jose, CA
(4)  Wisconsin vs (13)  New Mexico State

(6)  VCU vs (11)  Boise State/St. Mary's
Dayton, OH
(3)  Ohio State vs (14)  Northwestern State

(7)  Oregon vs (10)  Cincinnati
Salt Lake City, UT
(2)  New Mexico vs (15)  Iona

West Regional (Overall #4)
(1)  Miami, FL vs (16)  James Madison
Lexington, KY
(8)  San Diego State vs (9)  Missouri

(5)  Syracuse vs (12)  LaSalle/Tennessee
Auburn Hills, MI
(4)  Michigan vs (13)  Bucknell

(6)  UCLA vs (11)  Iowa State
Austin, TX
(3)  Marquette vs (14)  Montana

(7)  Creighton vs (10)  Minnesota
Salt Lake City, UT
(2)  Gonzaga vs (15)  Pacific

East Regional
(1)  Indiana vs (16)  Liberty/Long Island
Dayton, OH
(8)  Pittsburgh vs (9)  Temple

(5)  Kansas State vs (12)  Mississippi
San Jose, CA
(4)  Arizona vs (13)  South Dakota State

(6)  Butler vs (11)  California
Austin, TX
(3)  Florida vs (14)  Florida Gulf Coast

(7)  Notre Dame vs (10)  Wichita State
Philadelphia, PA
(2)  Duke vs (15)  Albany

South Regional
(1)  Kansas vs (16)  Western Kentucky
Kansas City, MO
(8)  Illinois vs (9)  Villanova

(5)  UNLV vs (12)  Belmont
Kansas City, MO
(4)  St. Louis vs (13)  Valparaiso

(6)  Memphis vs (11)  Oklahoma
Auburn Hills, MI
(3)  Michigan State vs (14)  Davidson

(7)  North Carolina vs (10)  Colorado
Philadelphia, PA
(2)  Georgetown vs (15)  Harvard

Field of 68 - Final Seed List, March 17, 2013

Time to go final with the projected tournament seeds.  I am comfortable enough on Wisconsin at a #4 to just get this done.  I will follow with my bracket.  Thanks to everyone who has been following.

1 - LOUISVILLE, Indiana, KANSAS, MIAMI, FL
2 - GONZAGA, DUKE, NEW MEXICO, Georgetown
3 - Ohio State, Florida, Michigan State, Marquette
4 - ST. LOUIS, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin
5 - Kansas State, Syracuse, UNLV, Oklahoma State
6 - UCLA, VCU, MEMPHIS, Butler
7 - North Carolina, CREIGHTON, OREGON, Notre Dame
8 - Pittsburgh, San Diego State, Illinois, Colorado State
9 - Missouri, NC State, Villanova, Temple
10 - Minnesota, Colorado, Cincinnati, Wichita State
11 - Iowa State, California, Oklahoma, Boise State/St. Mary's
12 - MISSISSIPPI, AKRON, BELMONT, LaSalle/Tennessee
13 - BUCKNELL, NEW MEXICO STATE, SOUTH DAKOTA STATE, VALPARAISO
14 - DAVIDSON, FLORIDA GULF COAST, NORTHWESTERN STATE, MONTANA
15 - HARVARD, IONA, PACIFIC, ALBANY
16 - JAMES MADISON, WESTERN KENTUCKY, NORTH CAROLINA A&T/SOUTHERN, LONG ISLAND/LIBERTY

• Tough Call between Duke and Miami, FL for the final #1.  Miami, FL double dipped the ACC regular season and tournament championships, so I am going out on a limb that they will nab the final #1.  Duke was 18-1 with Ryan Kelly, but failed in the ACC Quarters with Kelly in the line-up.
• I wanted to put St. Louis as a #3, but there is not much historical context for an A-10 team with a 16 RPI and a bad loss to take that slot.  I instead went with Marquette, but I don't feel great about it, despite their share of the Big East championship.
• The quality of Wisconsin's wins has vaulted them past Kansas State.
• I have penalized Notre Dame and Pitt a seed line for their horrific Non-Conference schedules.  Let's see if the committee does the same.
• I wanted to put Butler lower, but you can't take away wins over Indiana, Gonzaga, Marquette and North Carolina.  They just can't beat St. Louis.
• Memphis as a 6?  At 30-4, it seemed like the right spot, but I over-seed them every year now.
• I went with my gut on Villanova as a 9 based on quality wins.
• Finally, I am giving Tennessee the last spot over Middle Tennessee.

Field of 68 - Seed List, March 16, 2013

The eve of Selection Sunday and the Bubble just opened up.

1 - Indiana, Duke, Louisville, GONZAGA
2 - Kansas, Georgetown, New Mexico, Miami, FL
3 - Florida, Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan
4 - Marquette, Kansas State, St. Louis, Arizona
5 - Syracuse, UCLA, UNLV, Oklahoma State
6 - Wisconsin, Butler, VCU, Notre Dame
7 - Memphis, Colorado State, CREIGHTON, Pittsburgh
8 - North Carolina, San Diego State, Illinois, NC State
9 - Missouri, Minnesota, Cincinnati, Oregon
10 - Villanova, Colorado, Iowa State, Temple
11 - Wichita State, California, Oklahoma, BELMONT
12 - Tennessee/St. Mary's, Kentucky/LaSalle, Boise State, Bucknell
13 - New Mexico State, Ohio, SOUTH DAKOTA STATE, Stephen F Austin
14 - HARVARD, VALPARAISO, DAVIDSON, FLORIDA GULF COAST
15 - Montana, IONA, Pacific, Vermont
16 - JAMES MADISON, LONG ISLAND, Morgan State/Southern, WESTERN KENTUCKY/LIBERTY

• Remaining Bid-Stealers - UTEP, Tulsa, Southern Miss, Charlotte, St. Joseph's, Boston College, Maryland, Florida State, Nebraska, Utah, LSU, Vanderbilt
• Bid Stealers Lite (may need only to get to Championship Game and get help) - Massachusetts, Alabama, Ole Miss, Iowa
• 69th Team - Virginia

• Kansas can put a lot of pressure on the committee with a win over Kansas State tonight.  Should they be a #1 seed?
• Michigan State and Ohio State play for a possible #2 seed should New Mexico or Miami FL slip-up.
• If Kansas State defeats Kansas, they should supplant a Big Ten team on the #3 line, probably Michigan.
• What does the committee do with UCLA?  They will only have one game to judge them without second leading scorer Jordan Adams.
• If Syracuse wins the Big East tournament, they will make a case for the #4 line.
• The Atlantic 10 semis will have seeding implications.
• I know the committee awards bids to teams, not conferences, but doesn't it seem like UMass is playing for LaSalle's bid and that Ole Miss and Alabama are competing directly with Tennessee and Kentucky?
• I am holding firm on my field until the results of today's games are in.  I don't know if beating Missouri vaults Ole Miss into the field like Joe Lunardi says.
• I really want to say Villanova will be a #9 seed.
• North Carolina or NC State can move-up to a #7 yet, with Colorado State and Pitt the ones likely to move down.

Field of 68 - Friday Updates

Friday afternoon thoughts...

• The losses by Tennessee, LaSalle and Virginia open up the field to the next wave of teams.  I believe Virginia is out no matter what.  Some will disagree, but I am sticking to it.
• I still think Alabama needs to beat Florida tomorrow to be under full consideration.
• Same story for Iowa if they beat Michigan State this evening.
• Kentucky is in with a win over Vanderbilt, otherwise they join the Volunteers, Explorers and Cavaliers wondering who is the most vulnerable.
• Did Michigan fall to a #4 today?  A lot will depend on some other results, but it is a real possibility.
• NC State might have solidified an 8-9 seed and looked very good today.
• Wisconsin has a strange resume.

Top Seeds - Records vs Top Seeds

Here is just a quick look at how the top seeds have fared against one another.  I used my projected Top 5 seed lines as the cut-off, which includes 20 teams.  Not sure what it means, but I thought it would be interesting to look at.

Duke  3-1
Indiana  6-1
Louisville  2-3
Gonzaga  2-0
Kansas  5-2
Georgetown  5-2
Miami FL  2-2
New Mexico  1-2
Michigan State 3-5
Florida  1-2
Michigan  3-4
Ohio State  3-5
Arizona  2-2
Marquette  2-3
Kansas State  2-5
St. Louis  1-1
Oklahoma State  2-3
Syracuse  1-4
UCLA  2-1
UNLV  1-1

Field of 68 - Seed List, March 15, 2013

Three days to go until this all becomes real.  Today will be a big game in bubble land and for the elimination of most of the Bid-stealers.  I will try to bracket this up later to check out locations and potential match-ups.

1 - Duke, Indiana, Louisville, GONZAGA
2 - Kansas, Georgetown, New Mexico, Miami, FL
3 - Michigan, Florida, Michigan State, Ohio State
4 - Marquette, Arizona, Kansas State, St. Louis
5 - Oklahoma State, Syracuse, UCLA, UNLV
6 - Wisconsin, Butler, VCU, Notre Dame
7 - Memphis, Colorado State, CREIGHTON, Pittsburgh
8 - North Carolina, Missouri, San Diego State, Illinois
9 - Minnesota, Temple, Cincinnati, Oregon
10 - NC State, Villanova, Colorado, Iowa State
11 - Wichita State, Boise State, Oklahoma, BELMONT
12 - Tennessee/St. Mary's, Kentucky/LaSalle, California, Bucknell
13 - New Mexico State, Ohio, SOUTH DAKOTA STATE, Stephen F Austin
14 - HARVARD, VALPARAISO, DAVIDSON, FLORIDA GULF COAST
15 - Montana, IONA, Long Beach State, Vermont
16 - JAMES MADISON, LONG ISLAND, Morgan State/Southern, WESTERN KENTUCKY/LIBERTY

• Remaining Bid-Stealers - UTEP, Tulsa, Southern Miss, Charlotte, St. Joseph's, Boston College, Maryland, Florida State, Nebraska, Utah, LSU, Vanderbilt
• Bid Stealers Lite (may need only to get to Championship Game and get help) - Massachusetts, Alabama, Ole Miss, Iowa
• 69th Team - Virginia

Field of 68 - The Bracket, March 15, 2013

(1) East Region (to play West Region in Final Four)
(1)  Duke vs (16)  Long Island
Philadelphia, PA
(8)  San Diego State vs (9) Minnesota

(5)  UCLA vs (12)  Tennessee/LaSalle
Lexington, KY
(4)  Marquette vs (13)  Stephen F. Austin

(6)  Notre Dame vs (11)  Oklahoma
Auburn Hills, MI
(3)  Michigan vs (14)  Valparaiso

(7)  Creighton vs (10)  NC State
Salt Lake City, UT
(2)  New Mexico vs (15)  Long Beach State

(4)  West Region (to play East Region in Final Four)
(1)  Gonzaga vs (16)  James Madison
Salt Lake City, UT
(8)  Missouri vs (9)  Temple

(5)  Syracuse vs (12)  Boise State
San Jose, CA
(4)  Arizona vs (13)  South Dakota State

(6)  VCU vs (11)  California
Austin, TX
(3)  Ohio State vs (14)  Davidson

(7)  Colorado State vs (10)  Villanova
Kansas City, MO
(2)  Kansas vs (15)  Montana

(2)  Midwest Region (to play South Region in Final Four)
(1)  Indiana vs (16)  Western Kentucky/Liberty
Dayton, OH
(8)  North Carolina vs (9)  Cincinnati

(5)  Oklahoma State vs (12)  Bucknell
San Jose, CA
(4)  St. Louis vs (13)  New Mexico State

(6)  Wisconsin vs (11)  Wichita State
Dayton, OH
(3)  Florida vs (14)  Florida Gulf Coast

(7)  Memphis vs (10)  Iowa State
Philadelphia, PA
(2)  Georgetown vs (15)  Vermont

(3)  South Region (to play Midwest Region in Final Four)
(1)  Louisville vs (16)  Southern/Morgan State
Lexington, KY
(8)  Illinois vs (9)  Oregon

(5)  UNLV vs (12)  Kentucky/St. Mary's
Kansas City, MO
(4)  Kansas State vs (13)  Ohio

(6)  Butler vs (11)  Belmont
Auburn Hills, MI
(3)  Michigan State vs (14)  Harvard

(7)  Pittsburgh vs (10)  Colorado
Austin, TX
(2)  Miami, FL vs (15)  Iona