Just a small update to account for the automatic bids won the past two nights (and a flip between UNLV and Pittsburgh for now). Things get busier starting today and really take-off tomorrow in the conference tournaments.
1 - Duke, Indiana, Louisville, GONZAGA
2 - Kansas, Georgetown, New Mexico, Miami, FL
3 - Michigan, Florida, Marquette, Michigan State
4 - Ohio State, Arizona, Kansas State, St. Louis
5 - Oklahoma State, Syracuse, UCLA, UNLV
6 - Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, Butler, VCU
7 - Memphis, Colorado State, CREIGHTON, Notre Dame
8 - North Carolina, Missouri, Minnesota, Temple
9 - Illinois, San Diego State, Villanova, Cincinnati
10 - Boise State, NC State, Oregon, Colorado
11 - Wichita State, California, Oklahoma, BELMONT
12 - Tennessee/St. Mary's, Kentucky/LaSalle, Iowa State, Bucknell
13 - Denver, Ohio, SOUTH DAKOTA STATE, Stephen F Austin
14 - HARVARD, VALPARAISO, DAVIDSON, FLORIDA GULF COAST
15 - Montana, IONA, Long Beach State, Vermont
16 - JAMES MADISON, LONG ISLAND, Norfolk State/Southern, WESTERN KENTUCKY/LIBERTY
I will end with the great Gonzaga debate today. The season is done for the "Zags", so besides the shuffling of RPI's based on other results, we at least have the quantitative aspect of their season complete. First the positives...Gonzaga looks really, really good. I would not want to play them in the early rounds of the tournament. They finished with just 2 losses and one of those was an amazing buzzer-beater that should never have happened. But it is still a loss. They have no bad losses, which Kansas, Miami and Michigan cannot attest to. So they are a slam dunk for a #1 seed? Here is where I pause. I have accumulated data on the past 12 NCAA tournaments and Gonzaga's 10 Top 100 wins would be the fewest of any #1 seed in that time. Granted their have been a couple with 11, but it is just to show out of the past 48 #1 seeds, none have had that few. Their 2 top 25 and 6 top 50 wins are on the low side. SOS of 72 is not usually that of a #1 seed.
My recent comparison is San Diego State from two years ago. Co-Champions of the Mountain West with BYU and MWC Tournament Champions that season, the Aztecs finished 31-2, with both losses coming to BYU who had an RPI of 5. SDSU had 4 Top 25 RPI wins, 7 top 50, and 13 top 100, all greater than that of Gonzaga. The SOS I have for those Aztecs was 22. Their final RPI of 3 is higher than where Gonzaga currently sits. San Diego State received a #2 seed in the West region, behind a 5-loss Pittsburgh team with an RPI of 10.
So what will the committee do this year? If Kansas wins the Big 12 tournament title, I can see them being #1 in the West with Gonzaga a #2. Miami FL could also do the same with a sweep through the ACC tournament. Otherwise, Gonzaga seems safe as the 4th #1, with Duke in the East, Indiana in the Midwest and either Louisville or Georgetown in the South.
Sports Blog specializing in Bracketology
Wednesday, March 13, 2013
Monday, March 11, 2013
Field of 68 - Seed List, March 11, 2013
I did a "seed scrub" yesterday as action was unfolding, so there are some adjustments where teams may have been moved more than expected from my last update. The Field is also solidifying, with very few spots up for grabs.
1 - Duke, Indiana, Gonzaga, Louisville
2 - Kansas, Georgetown, New Mexico, Miami, FL
3 - Michigan, Florida, Marquette, Michigan State
4 - Ohio State, Arizona, Kansas State, St. Louis
5 - Oklahoma State, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, UCLA
6 - Wisconsin, Butler, VCU, UNLV
7 - Memphis, Colorado State, CREIGHTON, Notre Dame
8 - North Carolina, Missouri, Minnesota, Temple
9 - Illinois, San Diego State, Villanova, Cincinnati
10 - Boise State, NC State, Oregon, Colorado
11 - Wichita State, California, Oklahoma, BELMONT
12 - Tennessee/St. Mary's, Kentucky/LaSalle, Iowa State, Akron
13 - Denver, Bucknell, South Dakota State, Valparaiso
14 - HARVARD, Stephen F Austin, Davidson, FLORIDA GULF COAST
15 - Montana, Iona, Florida International, Northeastern
16 - Long Beach State, Long Island, Vermont/Southern, Norfolk State/LIBERTY
1 - Duke, Indiana, Gonzaga, Louisville
2 - Kansas, Georgetown, New Mexico, Miami, FL
3 - Michigan, Florida, Marquette, Michigan State
4 - Ohio State, Arizona, Kansas State, St. Louis
5 - Oklahoma State, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, UCLA
6 - Wisconsin, Butler, VCU, UNLV
7 - Memphis, Colorado State, CREIGHTON, Notre Dame
8 - North Carolina, Missouri, Minnesota, Temple
9 - Illinois, San Diego State, Villanova, Cincinnati
10 - Boise State, NC State, Oregon, Colorado
11 - Wichita State, California, Oklahoma, BELMONT
12 - Tennessee/St. Mary's, Kentucky/LaSalle, Iowa State, Akron
13 - Denver, Bucknell, South Dakota State, Valparaiso
14 - HARVARD, Stephen F Austin, Davidson, FLORIDA GULF COAST
15 - Montana, Iona, Florida International, Northeastern
16 - Long Beach State, Long Island, Vermont/Southern, Norfolk State/LIBERTY
Friday, March 8, 2013
Bubble Mania (will keep adding as time permits)
By my count, it is down to 10 days until selection Sunday. It seems this year, the Field is solidifying better than in the past, with more teams all but locking down spots at this point than in the past few years. Seeding is a different story, as teams will use these 10 days to try and add quality victories that will enhance their resumes for the committee. So where do we stand right now? Let's take a look.
Locks (59)
ACC - Duke, Miami FL, North Carolina, North Carolina State
Atlantic 10 - St. Louis, VCU, Butler
Big East - Louisville, Georgetown, Marquette, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
Big Ten - Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois
Big 12 - Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma
Conference USA - Memphis
Missouri Valley - Creighton, Wichita State
Mountain West - New Mexico, UNLV, Colorado State, San Diego State
PAC 12 - Arizona, UCLA, Oregon, California, Colorado
SEC - Florida, Missouri
WCC - Gonzaga
20 Automatic Qualifiers from Conferences not listed above
Should Be In (3)
Villanova (18-12) - I will start with the Wildcats, who have completed their Big East regular season with a 10-8 conference mark. The resume now includes 4 Top 25 wins, a mark that almost guarantees a bid unless your RPI is unsightly, which Villanova's is not at 53 due to a SOS of 19. They will face off against St. John's or Cincinnati in the first round of the Big East tournament, neither of which would be a bad loss. Do I think they are in? Yes. Win one game in the Big East Tourney and its a lock.
Cincinnati (20-10) - The Bearcats finish the Big East season at home vs South Florida. The Bearcats actually compiled a decent non-conference resume this year, so a .500 conference record should be good enough to earn a bid this year. Things get trickier if they lose to the Bulls, which may then require a victory over Villanova in the Big East Tourney.
Temple (22-8) - The Owls have won 5 in a row after the Duquesne debacle and close the year with VCU at home. A win their is a trip to the NCAA's, but a loss there and another loss to a bottom-division team in the First Round of the A-10 Tourney would put them square on the Bubble, despite their win over Syracuse and 9 overall Top 100 wins.
Bubble (6 spots available)
St. Mary's (25-5) - The Gaels will have an interesting resume to compare to if they fail to earn the WCC automatic bid. If that loss is to Gonzaga, their RPI should not take much of a hit, putting them in solid position. The big question is, can a resume that includes a victory over Creighton and 3 over BYU but not much else get you into the dance?
Boise State (18-9) - Yes, the Broncos do play more than football. Have they played it well enough to dance? With an RPI of 44, a road win at Creighton and victories over UNLV and Colorado State, there is a lot to like about this resume. The losses to Nevada and Utah are what is holding it back a little. Their regular season finale is San Diego State at home, which is likely a win and get in scenario. Should they lose, they will see those same Aztecs on a neutral floor next week. If they get swept, it will come down to what has happened around them.
Iowa State (20-10) - The Cyclones have beaten Kansas State, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, but have some holes in their resume. More specifically, a 3-8 road record and a loss to Texas Tech, combined with just 6 Top 100 victories. They close at West Virginia, and given their road woes, that is no gimme. It looks like Oklahoma or Oklahoma State in the first round of the Big 12, so if they trip up in Morgantown, they have a tough one right away next week. It would be nice to see another quality victory here, but just getting that additional road win might be enough.
LaSalle (21-7) - The Explorers sit with just 5 Top 100 victories, a mark that typically does not get an Atlantic 10 team into the tournament. They have the big road win at VCU and home win vs Butler, as well as beating Villanova. The other black mark is the loss to Central Connecticut State. LaSalle closes at St. Louis, a tough game but one that won't do much damage to their RPI of 41. They could still secure a top 4 seed in the A-10 Tourney with a loss, landing them an initial game against Temple, UMass or Xavier. All those teams would provide an additional top 100 win
Tennessee (18-11) - The Volunteers have emerged in February, positioning them to be part of the March conversation. They have a signature win over Florida, coupled with 8 Top 100 wins. Their worst losses were a sweep by Georgia (RPI of 122) , but their best road win is Texas A&M (RPI of 93). Tennessee also has a 200 +/- of 1, so two losses to end the season would put them at -1, a mark few have gained an at-large berth with. They can probably put a bid to rest by beating Missouri at home on Saturday. If they lose, the SEC is too jumbled to have any clue how the conference tourney will look, but the Vols would need to secure one, maybe two wins their to gain comfortable status.
Virginia (20-10) - What to do about the Cavaliers? It is probably the most controversial part of the Bubble Talk right now. 7-3 vs the Top 100, with wins over Duke, North Carolina, NC State, at Wisconsin and over fellow bubbler Tennessee. 13-7 against the 101+, including a loss to Old Dominion (RPI of 318). On one hand, you want a team in the tournament capable of beating the likes that UVA has defeated, but on the other hand, can you reward a team that has lost so many bad games? The Cavs finish the regular season at home against Maryland, an opportunity for another top 100 win. With a win, they can possibly get to the #4 seed in the ACC, which would help them avoid the 5-12 game which could prove disastrous.
Iowa (19-11) - The Hawkeyes host Nebraska this weekend, a win would give them a .500 record in the Big 10 and 20 wins on the season. They have wins against Minnesota, Illinois and Wisconsin, but their best road win is Penn State (RPI of 176). The non-conference SOS of 308 brings their RPI in at 75, so there is work left to do. A win over Nebraska would give Iowa the 6 or 7 seed and a match-up with Nebraska or Northwestern. They would then have one last shot at an Ohio State or Michigan State to get that real signature win on a neutral floor.
Locks (59)
ACC - Duke, Miami FL, North Carolina, North Carolina State
Atlantic 10 - St. Louis, VCU, Butler
Big East - Louisville, Georgetown, Marquette, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
Big Ten - Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois
Big 12 - Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma
Conference USA - Memphis
Missouri Valley - Creighton, Wichita State
Mountain West - New Mexico, UNLV, Colorado State, San Diego State
PAC 12 - Arizona, UCLA, Oregon, California, Colorado
SEC - Florida, Missouri
WCC - Gonzaga
20 Automatic Qualifiers from Conferences not listed above
Should Be In (3)
Villanova (18-12) - I will start with the Wildcats, who have completed their Big East regular season with a 10-8 conference mark. The resume now includes 4 Top 25 wins, a mark that almost guarantees a bid unless your RPI is unsightly, which Villanova's is not at 53 due to a SOS of 19. They will face off against St. John's or Cincinnati in the first round of the Big East tournament, neither of which would be a bad loss. Do I think they are in? Yes. Win one game in the Big East Tourney and its a lock.
Cincinnati (20-10) - The Bearcats finish the Big East season at home vs South Florida. The Bearcats actually compiled a decent non-conference resume this year, so a .500 conference record should be good enough to earn a bid this year. Things get trickier if they lose to the Bulls, which may then require a victory over Villanova in the Big East Tourney.
Temple (22-8) - The Owls have won 5 in a row after the Duquesne debacle and close the year with VCU at home. A win their is a trip to the NCAA's, but a loss there and another loss to a bottom-division team in the First Round of the A-10 Tourney would put them square on the Bubble, despite their win over Syracuse and 9 overall Top 100 wins.
Bubble (6 spots available)
St. Mary's (25-5) - The Gaels will have an interesting resume to compare to if they fail to earn the WCC automatic bid. If that loss is to Gonzaga, their RPI should not take much of a hit, putting them in solid position. The big question is, can a resume that includes a victory over Creighton and 3 over BYU but not much else get you into the dance?
Boise State (18-9) - Yes, the Broncos do play more than football. Have they played it well enough to dance? With an RPI of 44, a road win at Creighton and victories over UNLV and Colorado State, there is a lot to like about this resume. The losses to Nevada and Utah are what is holding it back a little. Their regular season finale is San Diego State at home, which is likely a win and get in scenario. Should they lose, they will see those same Aztecs on a neutral floor next week. If they get swept, it will come down to what has happened around them.
Iowa State (20-10) - The Cyclones have beaten Kansas State, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, but have some holes in their resume. More specifically, a 3-8 road record and a loss to Texas Tech, combined with just 6 Top 100 victories. They close at West Virginia, and given their road woes, that is no gimme. It looks like Oklahoma or Oklahoma State in the first round of the Big 12, so if they trip up in Morgantown, they have a tough one right away next week. It would be nice to see another quality victory here, but just getting that additional road win might be enough.
LaSalle (21-7) - The Explorers sit with just 5 Top 100 victories, a mark that typically does not get an Atlantic 10 team into the tournament. They have the big road win at VCU and home win vs Butler, as well as beating Villanova. The other black mark is the loss to Central Connecticut State. LaSalle closes at St. Louis, a tough game but one that won't do much damage to their RPI of 41. They could still secure a top 4 seed in the A-10 Tourney with a loss, landing them an initial game against Temple, UMass or Xavier. All those teams would provide an additional top 100 win
Tennessee (18-11) - The Volunteers have emerged in February, positioning them to be part of the March conversation. They have a signature win over Florida, coupled with 8 Top 100 wins. Their worst losses were a sweep by Georgia (RPI of 122) , but their best road win is Texas A&M (RPI of 93). Tennessee also has a 200 +/- of 1, so two losses to end the season would put them at -1, a mark few have gained an at-large berth with. They can probably put a bid to rest by beating Missouri at home on Saturday. If they lose, the SEC is too jumbled to have any clue how the conference tourney will look, but the Vols would need to secure one, maybe two wins their to gain comfortable status.
Virginia (20-10) - What to do about the Cavaliers? It is probably the most controversial part of the Bubble Talk right now. 7-3 vs the Top 100, with wins over Duke, North Carolina, NC State, at Wisconsin and over fellow bubbler Tennessee. 13-7 against the 101+, including a loss to Old Dominion (RPI of 318). On one hand, you want a team in the tournament capable of beating the likes that UVA has defeated, but on the other hand, can you reward a team that has lost so many bad games? The Cavs finish the regular season at home against Maryland, an opportunity for another top 100 win. With a win, they can possibly get to the #4 seed in the ACC, which would help them avoid the 5-12 game which could prove disastrous.
Iowa (19-11) - The Hawkeyes host Nebraska this weekend, a win would give them a .500 record in the Big 10 and 20 wins on the season. They have wins against Minnesota, Illinois and Wisconsin, but their best road win is Penn State (RPI of 176). The non-conference SOS of 308 brings their RPI in at 75, so there is work left to do. A win over Nebraska would give Iowa the 6 or 7 seed and a match-up with Nebraska or Northwestern. They would then have one last shot at an Ohio State or Michigan State to get that real signature win on a neutral floor.
Thursday, March 7, 2013
Field of 68 - Seed List and Bracket, March 7, 2013
After Wednesday's Action:
1 - Duke, Gonzaga, Indiana, Kansas
2 - Louisville, New Mexico, Michigan, Georgetown
3 - Miami, FL, Florida, Marquette, Michigan State
4 - Arizona, Kansas State, Ohio State, UNLV
5 - Syracuse, Oklahoma State, St. Louis, Pittsburgh
6 - Wisconsin, Butler, VCU, UCLA
7 - Memphis, Oregon, North Carolina, Minnesota
8 - NC State, Notre Dame, Colorado State, Missouri
9 - San Diego State, Oklahoma, Illinois, Creighton
10 - Colorado, California, Cincinnati, Temple
11 - Wichita State, St. Mary's, Belmont, Villanova
12 - Tennessee/LaSalle, Iowa State/Virginia, Louisiana Tech, Boise State
13 - Middle Tennessee, Akron, Bucknell, South Dakota State
14 - Valparaiso, Princeton, Stephen F Austin, Davidson
15 - Stony Brook, Montana, Robert Morris, Niagara
16 - Long Beach State, Northeastern, Mercer/Southern, Norfolk State/Charleston Southern
East
(1) Duke vs (16) Norfolk State/Charleston Southern
Philadelphia, PA
(8) Colorado State vs (9) Illinois
(5) Syracuse vs (12) LaSalle/Tennessee
Kansas City, MO
(4) Kansas State vs (13) Middle Tennessee
(6) VCU vs (11) Belmont
Dayton, OH
(3) Marquette vs (14) Stephen F Austin
(7) Memphis vs (10) Colorado
Auburn Hills, MI
(2) Michigan vs (15) Robert Morris
South
(1) Kansas vs (16) Northeastern
Kansas City, MO
(8) Notre Dame vs (9) San Diego State
(5) St. Louis vs (12) Virginia/Iowa State
Lexington, KY
(4) Ohio State vs (13) Bucknell
(6) Wisconsin vs (11) Wichita State
Austin, TX
(3) Miami, FL vs (14) Valparaiso
(7) Oregon vs (10) Temple
Dayton, OH
(2) Louisville vs (15) Stony Brook
Midwest
(1) Indiana vs (16) Mercer/Southern
Lexington, KY
(8) NC State vs (9) Creighton
(5) Oklahoma State vs (12) Louisiana Tech
San Jose, CA
(4) UNLV vs (13) Akron
(6) UCLA vs (11) St. Mary's
Austin, TX
(3) Florida vs (14) Davidson
(7) Minnesota vs (10) Cincinnati
Philadelphia, PA
(2) Georgetown vs (15) Niagara
West
(1) Gonzaga vs (16) Long Beach State
Salt Lake City, UT
(8) Missouri vs (9) Oklahoma
(5) Pittsburgh vs (12) Boise State
San Jose, CA
(4) Arizona vs (13) South Dakota State
(6) Butler vs (11) Villanova
Auburn Hills, MI
(3) Michigan State vs (14) Princeton
(7) North Carolina vs (10) California
Salt Lake City, UT
(2) New Mexico vs (15) Montanta
1 - Duke, Gonzaga, Indiana, Kansas
2 - Louisville, New Mexico, Michigan, Georgetown
3 - Miami, FL, Florida, Marquette, Michigan State
4 - Arizona, Kansas State, Ohio State, UNLV
5 - Syracuse, Oklahoma State, St. Louis, Pittsburgh
6 - Wisconsin, Butler, VCU, UCLA
7 - Memphis, Oregon, North Carolina, Minnesota
8 - NC State, Notre Dame, Colorado State, Missouri
9 - San Diego State, Oklahoma, Illinois, Creighton
10 - Colorado, California, Cincinnati, Temple
11 - Wichita State, St. Mary's, Belmont, Villanova
12 - Tennessee/LaSalle, Iowa State/Virginia, Louisiana Tech, Boise State
13 - Middle Tennessee, Akron, Bucknell, South Dakota State
14 - Valparaiso, Princeton, Stephen F Austin, Davidson
15 - Stony Brook, Montana, Robert Morris, Niagara
16 - Long Beach State, Northeastern, Mercer/Southern, Norfolk State/Charleston Southern
- Wednesday night was a dream and a nightmare in the bracketology world. The nightmare was some strange losses by teams toward the top of the bracket, including 3 of my projected 5 seeds. The dream was the work done by the Bubble squads, including huge wins for Villanova and Iowa State, plus necessary wins for LaSalle and Tennessee. So while the field got stronger, the seeding becomes a little more tricky at this point.
East
(1) Duke vs (16) Norfolk State/Charleston Southern
Philadelphia, PA
(8) Colorado State vs (9) Illinois
(5) Syracuse vs (12) LaSalle/Tennessee
Kansas City, MO
(4) Kansas State vs (13) Middle Tennessee
(6) VCU vs (11) Belmont
Dayton, OH
(3) Marquette vs (14) Stephen F Austin
(7) Memphis vs (10) Colorado
Auburn Hills, MI
(2) Michigan vs (15) Robert Morris
South
(1) Kansas vs (16) Northeastern
Kansas City, MO
(8) Notre Dame vs (9) San Diego State
(5) St. Louis vs (12) Virginia/Iowa State
Lexington, KY
(4) Ohio State vs (13) Bucknell
(6) Wisconsin vs (11) Wichita State
Austin, TX
(3) Miami, FL vs (14) Valparaiso
(7) Oregon vs (10) Temple
Dayton, OH
(2) Louisville vs (15) Stony Brook
Midwest
(1) Indiana vs (16) Mercer/Southern
Lexington, KY
(8) NC State vs (9) Creighton
(5) Oklahoma State vs (12) Louisiana Tech
San Jose, CA
(4) UNLV vs (13) Akron
(6) UCLA vs (11) St. Mary's
Austin, TX
(3) Florida vs (14) Davidson
(7) Minnesota vs (10) Cincinnati
Philadelphia, PA
(2) Georgetown vs (15) Niagara
West
(1) Gonzaga vs (16) Long Beach State
Salt Lake City, UT
(8) Missouri vs (9) Oklahoma
(5) Pittsburgh vs (12) Boise State
San Jose, CA
(4) Arizona vs (13) South Dakota State
(6) Butler vs (11) Villanova
Auburn Hills, MI
(3) Michigan State vs (14) Princeton
(7) North Carolina vs (10) California
Salt Lake City, UT
(2) New Mexico vs (15) Montanta
Wednesday, March 6, 2013
Field of 68 - Seed List and Bracket, March 6, 2013
After Tuesday's Action:
1 - Duke, Gonzaga, Indiana, Kansas
2 - Georgetown, New Mexico, Miami, FL, Louisville
3 - Florida, Michigan, Marquette, Michigan State
4 - Arizona, Kansas State, Ohio State, UNLV
5 - Syracuse, Oklahoma State, St. Louis, UCLA
6 - Wisconsin, Butler, Pittsburgh, Minnesota
7 - Memphis, VCU, Oregon, North Carolina
8 - NC State, Notre Dame, Colorado State, Missouri
9 - San Diego State, Oklahoma, California, Illinois
10 - Colorado, Creighton, Cincinnati, Temple
11 - Wichita State, Boise State, St. Mary's, Belmont
12 - Iowa State, Virginia/LaSalle, Villanova/Tennessee, Louisiana Tech
13 - Middle Tennessee, Akron, Bucknell, South Dakota State
14 - Valparaiso, Princeton, Stephen F Austin, Davidson
15 - Stony Brook, Montana, Robert Morris, Niagara
16 - Long Beach State, Northeastern, Mercer/Texas Southern, Norfolk State/Charleston Southern
East
(1) Duke vs (16) Norfolk State/Charleston Southern
Philadelphia, PA
(8) Notre Dame vs (9) Illinois
(5) Oklahoma State vs (12) Louisiana Tech
San Jose, CA
(4) UNLV vs (13) Middle Tennessee
(6) Butler vs (11) Belmont
Auburn Hills, MI
(3) Michigan vs (14) Davidson
(7) Oregon vs (10) Creighton
Dayton, OH
(2) Louisville vs (15) Robert Morris
South
(1) Kansas vs (16) Northeastern
Kansas City, MO
(8) NC State vs (9) California
(5) Syracuse vs (12) LaSalle/Tennessee
Lexington, KY
(4) Ohio State vs (13) Bucknell
(6) Minnesota vs (11) St. Mary's
Austin, TX
(3) Florida vs (14) Valparaiso
(7) VCU vs (10) Cincinnati
Salt Lake City, UT
(2) New Mexico vs (15) Montana
Midwest
(1) Indiana vs (16) Mercer/Texas Southern
Lexington, KY
(8) Missouri vs (9) San Diego State
(5) UCLA vs (12) Villanova/Virginia
Kansas City, MO
(4) Kansas State vs (13) Akron
(6) Wisconsin vs (11) Wichita State
Dayton, OH
(3) Marquette vs (14) Stephen F Austin
(7) Memphis vs (10) Temple
Austin, TX
(2) Miami, FL vs (15) Niagara
West
(1) Gonzaga vs (16) Long Beach State
Salt Lake City, UT
(8) Colorado State vs (9) Oklahoma
(5) St. Louis vs (12) Iowa State
San Jose, CA
(4) Arizona vs (13) South Dakota State
(6) Pittsburgh vs (11) Boise State
Auburn Hills, MI
(3) Michigan State vs (14) Princeton
(7) North Carolina vs (10) Colorado
Philadelphia, PA
(2) Georgetown vs (15) Stony Brook
1 - Duke, Gonzaga, Indiana, Kansas
2 - Georgetown, New Mexico, Miami, FL, Louisville
3 - Florida, Michigan, Marquette, Michigan State
4 - Arizona, Kansas State, Ohio State, UNLV
5 - Syracuse, Oklahoma State, St. Louis, UCLA
6 - Wisconsin, Butler, Pittsburgh, Minnesota
7 - Memphis, VCU, Oregon, North Carolina
8 - NC State, Notre Dame, Colorado State, Missouri
9 - San Diego State, Oklahoma, California, Illinois
10 - Colorado, Creighton, Cincinnati, Temple
11 - Wichita State, Boise State, St. Mary's, Belmont
12 - Iowa State, Virginia/LaSalle, Villanova/Tennessee, Louisiana Tech
13 - Middle Tennessee, Akron, Bucknell, South Dakota State
14 - Valparaiso, Princeton, Stephen F Austin, Davidson
15 - Stony Brook, Montana, Robert Morris, Niagara
16 - Long Beach State, Northeastern, Mercer/Texas Southern, Norfolk State/Charleston Southern
- I'll start with Indiana. It seems everyone thinks they are the best team, but they continue to give reasons to the contrary. Their RPI sits dangerously at 9 and they are in danger of losing out on Indianapolis. That being said, a road win at Michigan this weekend gives them the outright Big 10 Title and an 8th Top 25 win. That should lock up a #1 seed regardless of the Big 10 Tourney. Lose to Michigan, and its a whole different story.
- Ohio State was the beneficiary and filled the quality road win hole on their resume. The Buckeyes still only have 7 Top 100 wins, but the quality of those wins is better than the teams just below them. They can also share the Big 10 Title with a win and a Michigan win over Indiana, something that can not be discounted.
- I bumped Syracuse back to a 5 seed, but they can reclaim the #4 line with a win against Georgetown this weekend. Otherwise, the 5 line seems like where they should be.
East
(1) Duke vs (16) Norfolk State/Charleston Southern
Philadelphia, PA
(8) Notre Dame vs (9) Illinois
(5) Oklahoma State vs (12) Louisiana Tech
San Jose, CA
(4) UNLV vs (13) Middle Tennessee
(6) Butler vs (11) Belmont
Auburn Hills, MI
(3) Michigan vs (14) Davidson
(7) Oregon vs (10) Creighton
Dayton, OH
(2) Louisville vs (15) Robert Morris
South
(1) Kansas vs (16) Northeastern
Kansas City, MO
(8) NC State vs (9) California
(5) Syracuse vs (12) LaSalle/Tennessee
Lexington, KY
(4) Ohio State vs (13) Bucknell
(6) Minnesota vs (11) St. Mary's
Austin, TX
(3) Florida vs (14) Valparaiso
(7) VCU vs (10) Cincinnati
Salt Lake City, UT
(2) New Mexico vs (15) Montana
Midwest
(1) Indiana vs (16) Mercer/Texas Southern
Lexington, KY
(8) Missouri vs (9) San Diego State
(5) UCLA vs (12) Villanova/Virginia
Kansas City, MO
(4) Kansas State vs (13) Akron
(6) Wisconsin vs (11) Wichita State
Dayton, OH
(3) Marquette vs (14) Stephen F Austin
(7) Memphis vs (10) Temple
Austin, TX
(2) Miami, FL vs (15) Niagara
West
(1) Gonzaga vs (16) Long Beach State
Salt Lake City, UT
(8) Colorado State vs (9) Oklahoma
(5) St. Louis vs (12) Iowa State
San Jose, CA
(4) Arizona vs (13) South Dakota State
(6) Pittsburgh vs (11) Boise State
Auburn Hills, MI
(3) Michigan State vs (14) Princeton
(7) North Carolina vs (10) Colorado
Philadelphia, PA
(2) Georgetown vs (15) Stony Brook
Tuesday, March 5, 2013
Field of 68 - Seed List and Bracket, March 5, 2013
After Monday's Action:
1 - Indiana, Duke, Gonzaga, Kansas
2 - Georgetown, New Mexico, Miami, FL, Louisville
3 - Florida, Michigan, Marquette, Michigan State
4 - Arizona, Kansas State, Syracuse, Oklahoma State
5 - UNLV, Ohio State, St. Louis, UCLA
6 - Wisconsin, Butler, Pittsburgh, Minnesota
7 - Illinois, Memphis, VCU, Oregon
8 - NC State, Notre Dame, Colorado State, North Carolina
9 - San Diego State, Oklahoma, Missouri, California
10 - Colorado, Creighton, Cincinnati, Temple
11 - Wichita State, Boise State, St. Mary's, Belmont
12 - Iowa State, Virginia/LaSalle, Villanova/Tennessee, Louisiana Tech
13 - Middle Tennessee, Akron, Bucknell, South Dakota State
14 - Valparaiso, Princeton, Stephen F Austin, Davidson
15 - Stony Brook, Montana, Robert Morris, Niagara
16 - Long Beach State, Northeastern, Mercer/Texas Southern, Norfolk State/Charleston Southern
(1) Duke vs (16) Norfolk State/Charleston Southern
Philadelphia, PA
(8) Notre Dame vs (9) California
(5) UNLV vs (12) Louisiana Tech
San Jose, CA
(4) Oklahoma State vs (13) Middle Tennessee
(6) Butler vs (11) Belmont
Auburn Hills, MI
(3) Michigan vs (14) Davidson
(7) Oregon vs (10) Creighton
Dayton, OH
(2) Louisville vs (15) Robert Morris
South
(1) Kansas vs (16) Northeastern
Kansas City, MO
(8) NC State vs (9) San Diego State
(5) Ohio State vs (12) LaSalle/Virginia
Lexington, KY
(4) Syracuse vs (13) Bucknell
(6) Minnesota vs (11) St. Mary's
Austin, TX
(3) Florida vs (14) Valparaiso
(7) VCU vs (10) Cincinnati
Salt Lake City, UT
(2) New Mexico vs (15) Montana
Midwest
(1) Indiana vs (16) Mercer/Texas Southern
Lexington, KY
(8) Colorado State vs (9) Missouri
(5) UCLA vs (12) Villanova/Tennessee
Kansas City, MO
(4) Kansas State vs (13) Akron
(6) Wisconsin vs (11) Wichita State
Dayton, OH
(3) Marquette vs (14) Stephen F Austin
(7) Memphis vs (10) Temple
Austin, TX
(2) Miami, FL vs (15) Niagara
West
(1) Gonzaga vs (16) Long Beach State
Salt Lake City, UT
(8) North Carolina vs (9) Oklahoma
(5) St. Louis vs (12) Iowa State
San Jose, CA
(4) Arizona vs (13) South Dakota State
(6) Pittsburgh vs (11) Boise State
Auburn Hills, MI
(3) Michigan State vs (14) Princeton
(7) Illinois vs (10) Colorado
Philadelphia, PA
(2) Georgetown vs (15) Stony Brook
1 - Indiana, Duke, Gonzaga, Kansas
2 - Georgetown, New Mexico, Miami, FL, Louisville
3 - Florida, Michigan, Marquette, Michigan State
4 - Arizona, Kansas State, Syracuse, Oklahoma State
5 - UNLV, Ohio State, St. Louis, UCLA
6 - Wisconsin, Butler, Pittsburgh, Minnesota
7 - Illinois, Memphis, VCU, Oregon
8 - NC State, Notre Dame, Colorado State, North Carolina
9 - San Diego State, Oklahoma, Missouri, California
10 - Colorado, Creighton, Cincinnati, Temple
11 - Wichita State, Boise State, St. Mary's, Belmont
12 - Iowa State, Virginia/LaSalle, Villanova/Tennessee, Louisiana Tech
13 - Middle Tennessee, Akron, Bucknell, South Dakota State
14 - Valparaiso, Princeton, Stephen F Austin, Davidson
15 - Stony Brook, Montana, Robert Morris, Niagara
16 - Long Beach State, Northeastern, Mercer/Texas Southern, Norfolk State/Charleston Southern
- Two weeks to go and there is nothing settled. I believe the 4 teams on the #1 line will be there if they win out. The only question would be if Georgetown wins out, how their final resume would match-up with Gonzaga or Kansas. The ceiling for New Mexico is probably a 2, but has anyone noticed they have 4 more top 100 wins than any other team? Louisville is streaking and I count the loss to Duke as .5 because it was with out Gorgui Dieng. That is enough to get them ahead of Florida and Michigan.
- Teams that could use some additional top 100 wins to maintain their current spot would be Michigan State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Ohio State and Butler.
- Conference tournaments start today, so the watch for Bubble Shrinkers and the Annual Weakening of the 14-16 seeds starts.
(1) Duke vs (16) Norfolk State/Charleston Southern
Philadelphia, PA
(8) Notre Dame vs (9) California
(5) UNLV vs (12) Louisiana Tech
San Jose, CA
(4) Oklahoma State vs (13) Middle Tennessee
(6) Butler vs (11) Belmont
Auburn Hills, MI
(3) Michigan vs (14) Davidson
(7) Oregon vs (10) Creighton
Dayton, OH
(2) Louisville vs (15) Robert Morris
South
(1) Kansas vs (16) Northeastern
Kansas City, MO
(8) NC State vs (9) San Diego State
(5) Ohio State vs (12) LaSalle/Virginia
Lexington, KY
(4) Syracuse vs (13) Bucknell
(6) Minnesota vs (11) St. Mary's
Austin, TX
(3) Florida vs (14) Valparaiso
(7) VCU vs (10) Cincinnati
Salt Lake City, UT
(2) New Mexico vs (15) Montana
Midwest
(1) Indiana vs (16) Mercer/Texas Southern
Lexington, KY
(8) Colorado State vs (9) Missouri
(5) UCLA vs (12) Villanova/Tennessee
Kansas City, MO
(4) Kansas State vs (13) Akron
(6) Wisconsin vs (11) Wichita State
Dayton, OH
(3) Marquette vs (14) Stephen F Austin
(7) Memphis vs (10) Temple
Austin, TX
(2) Miami, FL vs (15) Niagara
West
(1) Gonzaga vs (16) Long Beach State
Salt Lake City, UT
(8) North Carolina vs (9) Oklahoma
(5) St. Louis vs (12) Iowa State
San Jose, CA
(4) Arizona vs (13) South Dakota State
(6) Pittsburgh vs (11) Boise State
Auburn Hills, MI
(3) Michigan State vs (14) Princeton
(7) Illinois vs (10) Colorado
Philadelphia, PA
(2) Georgetown vs (15) Stony Brook
Friday, March 1, 2013
Field of 68 - Seed List and Bracket, March 1, 2013
After Thursday's Action:
1 - Indiana, Gonzaga, Miami, FL, Duke
2 - Kansas, Georgetown, Florida, New Mexico
3 - Louisville, Michigan, Michigan State, Arizona
4 - Syracuse, Kansas State, Wisconsin, Marquette
5 - UNLV, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, St. Louis
6 - Colorado State, Butler, Notre Dame, Minnesota
7 - Illinois, Pittsburgh, UCLA, Memphis
8 - Oregon, NC State, Colorado, VCU
9 - San Diego State, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Missouri
10 - Wichita State, Cincinnati, California, Temple
11 - Creighton, Iowa State, Belmont, Villanova
12 - LaSalle, St. Mary's/Kentucky, Virginia/Tennessee, Middle Tennessee
13 - Louisiana Tech, Akron, Bucknell, South Dakota State
14 - Valparaiso, Harvard, Stephen F Austin, Davidson
15 - Stony Brook, Montana, Robert Morris, Niagara
16 - Long Beach State, Northeastern, Mercer/Norfolk State, Southern/Charleston Southern
(1) Duke vs (16) Northeastern
Philadelphia, PA
(8) Oregon vs (9) San Diego State
(5) Oklahoma State vs (12) LaSalle
San Jose, CA
(4) Marquette vs (13) South Dakota State
(6) Notre Dame vs (11) Creighton
Auburn Hills, MI
(3) Michigan State vs (14) Harvard
(7) Memphis vs (10) Wichita State
Austin, TX
(2) Florida vs (15) Niagara
South
(1) Miami, FL vs (16) Norflok State/Charleston Southern
Lexington, KY
(8) VCU vs (9) Missouri
(5) UNLV vs (12) Middle Tennessee
Austin, TX
(4) Wisconsin vs (13) Akron
(6) Minnesota vs (11) Belmont
Dayton, OH
(3) Louisville vs (14) Stephen F Austin
(7) UCLA vs (10) Cincinnati
Kansas City, MO
(2) Kansas vs (15) Robert Morris
Midwest
(1) Indiana vs (16) Mercer/Southern
Dayton, OH
(8) NC State vs (9) Oklahoma
(5) St. Louis vs (12) Tennessee/St. Mary's
Lexington, KY
(4) Syracuse vs (13) Bucknell
(6) Colorado State vs (11) Iowa State
San Jose, CA
(3) Arizona vs (14) Valparaiso
(7) Illinois vs (10) Temple
Philadelphia, PA
(2) Georgetown vs (15) Stony Brook
West
(1) Gonzaga vs (16) Long Beach State
Salt Lake City, UT
(8) Colorado vs (9) North Carolina
(5) Ohio State vs (12) Kentucky/Virginia
Kansas City, MO
(4) Kansas State vs (13) Louisiana Tech
(6) Butler vs (11) Villanova
Auburn Hills, MI
(3) Michigan vs (14) Davidson
(7) Pittsburgh vs (10) California
Salt Lake City, UT
(2) New Mexico vs (15) Montana
1 - Indiana, Gonzaga, Miami, FL, Duke
2 - Kansas, Georgetown, Florida, New Mexico
3 - Louisville, Michigan, Michigan State, Arizona
4 - Syracuse, Kansas State, Wisconsin, Marquette
5 - UNLV, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, St. Louis
6 - Colorado State, Butler, Notre Dame, Minnesota
7 - Illinois, Pittsburgh, UCLA, Memphis
8 - Oregon, NC State, Colorado, VCU
9 - San Diego State, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Missouri
10 - Wichita State, Cincinnati, California, Temple
11 - Creighton, Iowa State, Belmont, Villanova
12 - LaSalle, St. Mary's/Kentucky, Virginia/Tennessee, Middle Tennessee
13 - Louisiana Tech, Akron, Bucknell, South Dakota State
14 - Valparaiso, Harvard, Stephen F Austin, Davidson
15 - Stony Brook, Montana, Robert Morris, Niagara
16 - Long Beach State, Northeastern, Mercer/Norfolk State, Southern/Charleston Southern
- A quiet Thursday as far as any bracket shuffling, with only Oregon moving up. Dominic Artis returned for the Ducks last evening, although he did not start. The Ducks were 5-4 without Artis and are now 18-2 with him in the line-up. If they can win at Colorado and at Utah and at least share the PAC-12 Title, they should benefit from an injury-related seed bump.
- Virginia got a signature win and continues to have the most polarizing resume out there. If I am on the committee and it comes down to a team with a bunch of really good wins and some really bad losses vs a team with nothing special for wins and no bad losses, I take the team who has proven they can beat somebody when the tournament starts.
- This weekend is a beautiful weekend of College Basketball...Harvard at Princeton, Louisville at Syracuse, Butler at VCU, Iowa State at Oklahoma, Notre Dame at Marquette, Wichita State at Creighton, Connecticut at Cincinnati, Kentucky at Arkansas, Tennessee at Gerogia, Colorado at California, Miami, FL at Duke, Kansas State at Baylor, Colorado State at Boise State, Arizona at UCLA, Villanova at Pittsburgh and Michigan State at Michigan.
(1) Duke vs (16) Northeastern
Philadelphia, PA
(8) Oregon vs (9) San Diego State
(5) Oklahoma State vs (12) LaSalle
San Jose, CA
(4) Marquette vs (13) South Dakota State
(6) Notre Dame vs (11) Creighton
Auburn Hills, MI
(3) Michigan State vs (14) Harvard
(7) Memphis vs (10) Wichita State
Austin, TX
(2) Florida vs (15) Niagara
South
(1) Miami, FL vs (16) Norflok State/Charleston Southern
Lexington, KY
(8) VCU vs (9) Missouri
(5) UNLV vs (12) Middle Tennessee
Austin, TX
(4) Wisconsin vs (13) Akron
(6) Minnesota vs (11) Belmont
Dayton, OH
(3) Louisville vs (14) Stephen F Austin
(7) UCLA vs (10) Cincinnati
Kansas City, MO
(2) Kansas vs (15) Robert Morris
Midwest
(1) Indiana vs (16) Mercer/Southern
Dayton, OH
(8) NC State vs (9) Oklahoma
(5) St. Louis vs (12) Tennessee/St. Mary's
Lexington, KY
(4) Syracuse vs (13) Bucknell
(6) Colorado State vs (11) Iowa State
San Jose, CA
(3) Arizona vs (14) Valparaiso
(7) Illinois vs (10) Temple
Philadelphia, PA
(2) Georgetown vs (15) Stony Brook
West
(1) Gonzaga vs (16) Long Beach State
Salt Lake City, UT
(8) Colorado vs (9) North Carolina
(5) Ohio State vs (12) Kentucky/Virginia
Kansas City, MO
(4) Kansas State vs (13) Louisiana Tech
(6) Butler vs (11) Villanova
Auburn Hills, MI
(3) Michigan vs (14) Davidson
(7) Pittsburgh vs (10) California
Salt Lake City, UT
(2) New Mexico vs (15) Montana
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