Instead of picking every game straight up this year, I thought I would go more Vegas-style and select certain games each week to pick against the spread. Last weeks record: 5-3-1. Season record: 5-3-1. Lock of the Week: 1-0.
Lock of the Week: BYU -4 at Utah. I am giving points on the road in a rivalry game, we will see how smart this is. Utah has to be deflated after losing to Utah State and losing their quarterback and BYU has been as solid as they come. BYU 27, Utah 13.
De Ja Vu Pick of the Week: Louisiana-Monroe +16.5 at Auburn. Not a lot of love for the Warhawks with this line. Auburn has a struggling quarterback and has scored 10 points in each of its first two games. As I stated last week, ULM is good on both sides of the ball. I expect a close one, and since it makes for a great story...Louisiana-Monroe 31, Auburn 24.
Thursday Night Special: Rutgers +7.5 at South Florida. I have Rutgers going to the BCS, but I had them losing at South Florida. The Scarlett Knights defense is really good, but they are struggling to score...South Florida 17, Rutgers 16.
Anti-Homer Pick of the Week: Utah State +14 at Wisconsin. I was going to stay away from this one, but I think my Badgers are getting too much love against the Aggies...Wisconsin 27, Utah State 24.
Other Picks of the Week:
Northern Illinois -3 at Army. Army was a mess last year and 2012 started in similar fashion. NIU's defense has been good as their offense round into form...Northern Illinois 33, Army 17.
Louisville -3 vs North Carolina. The Cardinals are looking to burst onto the national stage this year and the Tar Heels looked average last week in losing to Wake Forest...Louisville 38, North Carolina 28.
Northwestern -3.5 vs Boston College. The Wildcats seem to be another team that doesn't get much Vegas love, but they always seem to play close games so maybe 3.5 is a trick...Northwestern 31, Boston College 20.
Western Michigan +3 at Minnesota. The Gophers have been making a trend to lose a home game they shouldn't each season. Saturday is the day...Western Michigan 37, Minnesota 31.
Virginia +10.5 at Georgia Tech. I know the Virginia offense is struggling, but this line kept whispering to me based on how close I thought these two teams were before the season...Georgia Tech 26, Virginia 20.
Sports Blog specializing in Bracketology
Thursday, September 13, 2012
College Football 2012 - Week 3 Preview
Big 10
What I am watching: Michigan State hosting Notre Dame. The Spartans are now the torch-bearer for the Big 10 and have revenge on their minds as the Fighting Irish visit Saturday night. Michigan State's defense looks like it is for real, so maybe they will not need Andrew Maxwell to make many big plays to win. I expect the Irish to focus on Laveon Bell and make Maxwell try to beat them. I don't expect a ton of points in this one.
Upset alert: Western Michigan at Minnesota. The Broncos have not beaten a Big 10 team, but do bring an experienced quarterback and improving offense into visit the Gophers. While Minnesota is 2-0, they did need overtime to best a typically poor UNLV team. The game will likely come down to either MarQueis Gray or Alex Carder making (or not making) a key play. Last week: UCLA over Nebraska :)
Player on the spot: Montee Ball, RB, Wisconsin. The Heisman candidacy was short-lived, but its time to start winning football games. The offensive line has not helped, but Ball does not look like the same quick, decisive running back from 2011. Wisconsin needs the old Ball to get back on the winning track against an underrated Utah State team coming off a huge upset of Utah. Last week: Andrew Maxwell, 20-31, 275 yards, 2 TD in a win over Central Michigan.
ACC
What I am watching: The early-season battle of potential ACC Coastal contenders with Virginia at Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets played Virginia Tech tough and should have won the game, but that loss makes Saturday a must-win to avoid an 0-2 conference start. Virginia escaped against Penn State last week and needs to show more offensively to be a player in the ACC this season.
Upset alert: Virginia at Georgia Tech. Really the only one on the board to keep an eye on this week, but there is no reason the Cavaliers can't go into Bobby Dodd Stadium and steal a victory. Last week: Wake Forest over North Carolina :)
Player on the spot: Chase Rettig, QB, Boston College. Rettig is off to a great start in 2012 with over 600 yards passing and 5 TD's. Rettig leads the Eagles on the road at Northwestern this week and will need to continue his superb play for B.C. to have a chance at the upset. Last week: Perry Jones, 8 rushes for 14 yards and 4 catches for 14 yards in a 17-16 victory over Penn State.
SEC
What I am watching: Can Tennessee end their recent skid against the Gators or will Florida keep doing enough to get by? Things would appear to be aligning for a Volunteer victory on Saturday, but the last time Tennessee could claim bragging rights in this series was 2004. Injuries and a skittish offense might eventually do the Gators in and the Volunteers appear to be better stacked with weapons on both sides of the ball than in recent years.
Upset alert: Louisiana-Monroe at Auburn. The Tigers are 0-2 and ULM just beat Arkansas. It usually doesn't happen this way, but why not?? Last week: Northwestern over Vanderbilt :)
Player on the spot: James Franklin, QB, Missouri. After a second half beating at the hands of Georgia, Missouri hosts the white-hot offense of Arizona State this week. Franklin will need to step-up his game to keep up with the Sun Devils and avoid consecutive home losses. Last week: Dan Mullen, 28-10 winner over Auburn.
Big 12
What I am watching: How does Oklahoma State respond to last week's loss with a talented Louisiana-Lafayette visiting Stillwater? The Ragin' Cajuns are no slouch, so the Cowboys better figure out their defensive woes and turnover problems before they are staring at 1-2. The prescription might be a heavy dose of Joseph Randle and Jeremy Smith.
Upset alert: Sam Houston State at Baylor. Am I stretching on this one? Baylor looked really good in dispatching SMU in their opener but Sam Houston State was the FCS runner-up a year ago. If nothing else, expect this one to be closer than expected. Last week: Miami, FL over Kansas State (ouch!!).
Coach on the spot: Charlie Weis, Kansas. Last week's loss against Rice deflated any optimism in the Jayhawk program under it's first year coach. How Weis gets his team to respond this week as talented Big 12 newbie TCU visits will show me us a lot. Or is Weis just one of the most over-rated coaches in recent memory? Last week: Steele Jantz, 24-36, 241 Yards, 1 TD, 2 Int, 14 carries, 40 yards in Iowa State's 9-6 upset of Iowa.
PAC-12
What I am watching: USC's first big test at Stanford. I am not sure we really know who the real Stanford is at this point, but they can run the football and play solid defense which has to be a recipe to beat the Trojans. Keeping the ball away from Barkley/Redd/Lee/Woods would seem like a good idea. Detractors from USC say that depth will ultimately be their downfall, but having this one in the early season works in their favor.
Upset alert: Washington State at UNLV. The Rebels play much better at home and Mike Leach's Cougars are still an enigma. If the Rebels can cause some turnovers, Tim Cornett may be able to carry them to an upset. Last week: Illinois over Arizona State (ouch part II!!).
Player on the spot: Jon Hayes, QB, Utah. The career-ending injury to Jordan Wynn has thrust Hayes into the starting role. After failing to save the day against rival #1 Utah State, Hayes must now try to conquer rival #2 as BYU visits this week. The Cougar defense is vastly underrated, so Hayes will need an improved performance to keep the Utes in this one. Last week: Johnathan Franklin, 26 carries, 217 yards, 3 catches, 59 yards, 1 TD in the 36-30 upset of Nebraska.
Big East
What I am watching: The Thursday night tussle between Rutgers and South Florida, the first match-up between Big East favorites this season. Rutgers is struggling to find an offensive identity but boasts a strong defense. South Florida might have the top offense in the conference but has had some defensive lapses thus far. It will be interesting to see which unit shows the improvement to lead their team to victory.
Upset alert: Connecticut at Maryland. I get a little leery when I see Connecticut as a road favorite against another BCS school. I have been bashing Maryland (based on last season), but they are 2-0 coming off a win against another Big East school in Temple. Last week: Begrudgingly Maryland over Temple
Player in the spotlight: Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville. Let's put a spotlight on Mr. Bridgewater this week in a big non-conference game against North Carolina. The Tar Heels can score points, so it will be imperative for Bridgewater to continue his strong play to lead the Cardinals to victory and stamp Louisville as both a viable contender in the Big East and nationally. Last week: Ryan Nassib, 30-46, 322 yards, 2 TD, 2 Int in a 42-29 loss vs USC.
Non-BCS Conferences
What I am watching: I am always watching for how many victories the Non-BCS schools can accumulate against the BCS conferences. Ohio, Nevada, Colorado State, Utah State, Louisiana-Monroe, and Rice have done it the first two weeks with the victories over Penn State, California, Colorado, Utah, Arkansas and Kansas, respectively. Last season the total was 15. Which games this week might add to the current 6? Let's watch these 8...Louisiana-Monroe at Auburn, Texas A&M at SMU, Western Michigan at Minnesota, Ball State at Indiana, Washington State at UNLV, Colorado at Fresno State, Utah State at Wisconsin and Louisiana-Lafayette at Oklahoma State.
Upset alert: East Carolina at Southern Mississippi. Both teams have uncertain quarterback situations, so don't be surprised if the Pirates pull the upset in this closely-contested conference rivalry. Last week: North Dakota State over Colorado State (5-2 on upsets, not too bad).
Player on the spot: Rakeem Cato, QB, Marshall. Cato has a chance to make a name for himself and halt my early talk of an unbeaten season for Ohio. Through two games Cato has been superb, but a different challenge awaits him with the Bobcats defense. If he can outplay his counterpart Tyler Tettleton, Marshall could exact revenge from last year's thrashing at Ohio. Last week: Travis Bush, OC, Houston, 93 total yards, 580 yards passing in a 56-49 loss to Louisiana Tech.
What I am watching: Michigan State hosting Notre Dame. The Spartans are now the torch-bearer for the Big 10 and have revenge on their minds as the Fighting Irish visit Saturday night. Michigan State's defense looks like it is for real, so maybe they will not need Andrew Maxwell to make many big plays to win. I expect the Irish to focus on Laveon Bell and make Maxwell try to beat them. I don't expect a ton of points in this one.
Upset alert: Western Michigan at Minnesota. The Broncos have not beaten a Big 10 team, but do bring an experienced quarterback and improving offense into visit the Gophers. While Minnesota is 2-0, they did need overtime to best a typically poor UNLV team. The game will likely come down to either MarQueis Gray or Alex Carder making (or not making) a key play. Last week: UCLA over Nebraska :)
Player on the spot: Montee Ball, RB, Wisconsin. The Heisman candidacy was short-lived, but its time to start winning football games. The offensive line has not helped, but Ball does not look like the same quick, decisive running back from 2011. Wisconsin needs the old Ball to get back on the winning track against an underrated Utah State team coming off a huge upset of Utah. Last week: Andrew Maxwell, 20-31, 275 yards, 2 TD in a win over Central Michigan.
ACC
What I am watching: The early-season battle of potential ACC Coastal contenders with Virginia at Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets played Virginia Tech tough and should have won the game, but that loss makes Saturday a must-win to avoid an 0-2 conference start. Virginia escaped against Penn State last week and needs to show more offensively to be a player in the ACC this season.
Upset alert: Virginia at Georgia Tech. Really the only one on the board to keep an eye on this week, but there is no reason the Cavaliers can't go into Bobby Dodd Stadium and steal a victory. Last week: Wake Forest over North Carolina :)
Player on the spot: Chase Rettig, QB, Boston College. Rettig is off to a great start in 2012 with over 600 yards passing and 5 TD's. Rettig leads the Eagles on the road at Northwestern this week and will need to continue his superb play for B.C. to have a chance at the upset. Last week: Perry Jones, 8 rushes for 14 yards and 4 catches for 14 yards in a 17-16 victory over Penn State.
SEC
What I am watching: Can Tennessee end their recent skid against the Gators or will Florida keep doing enough to get by? Things would appear to be aligning for a Volunteer victory on Saturday, but the last time Tennessee could claim bragging rights in this series was 2004. Injuries and a skittish offense might eventually do the Gators in and the Volunteers appear to be better stacked with weapons on both sides of the ball than in recent years.
Upset alert: Louisiana-Monroe at Auburn. The Tigers are 0-2 and ULM just beat Arkansas. It usually doesn't happen this way, but why not?? Last week: Northwestern over Vanderbilt :)
Player on the spot: James Franklin, QB, Missouri. After a second half beating at the hands of Georgia, Missouri hosts the white-hot offense of Arizona State this week. Franklin will need to step-up his game to keep up with the Sun Devils and avoid consecutive home losses. Last week: Dan Mullen, 28-10 winner over Auburn.
Big 12
What I am watching: How does Oklahoma State respond to last week's loss with a talented Louisiana-Lafayette visiting Stillwater? The Ragin' Cajuns are no slouch, so the Cowboys better figure out their defensive woes and turnover problems before they are staring at 1-2. The prescription might be a heavy dose of Joseph Randle and Jeremy Smith.
Upset alert: Sam Houston State at Baylor. Am I stretching on this one? Baylor looked really good in dispatching SMU in their opener but Sam Houston State was the FCS runner-up a year ago. If nothing else, expect this one to be closer than expected. Last week: Miami, FL over Kansas State (ouch!!).
Coach on the spot: Charlie Weis, Kansas. Last week's loss against Rice deflated any optimism in the Jayhawk program under it's first year coach. How Weis gets his team to respond this week as talented Big 12 newbie TCU visits will show me us a lot. Or is Weis just one of the most over-rated coaches in recent memory? Last week: Steele Jantz, 24-36, 241 Yards, 1 TD, 2 Int, 14 carries, 40 yards in Iowa State's 9-6 upset of Iowa.
PAC-12
What I am watching: USC's first big test at Stanford. I am not sure we really know who the real Stanford is at this point, but they can run the football and play solid defense which has to be a recipe to beat the Trojans. Keeping the ball away from Barkley/Redd/Lee/Woods would seem like a good idea. Detractors from USC say that depth will ultimately be their downfall, but having this one in the early season works in their favor.
Upset alert: Washington State at UNLV. The Rebels play much better at home and Mike Leach's Cougars are still an enigma. If the Rebels can cause some turnovers, Tim Cornett may be able to carry them to an upset. Last week: Illinois over Arizona State (ouch part II!!).
Player on the spot: Jon Hayes, QB, Utah. The career-ending injury to Jordan Wynn has thrust Hayes into the starting role. After failing to save the day against rival #1 Utah State, Hayes must now try to conquer rival #2 as BYU visits this week. The Cougar defense is vastly underrated, so Hayes will need an improved performance to keep the Utes in this one. Last week: Johnathan Franklin, 26 carries, 217 yards, 3 catches, 59 yards, 1 TD in the 36-30 upset of Nebraska.
Big East
What I am watching: The Thursday night tussle between Rutgers and South Florida, the first match-up between Big East favorites this season. Rutgers is struggling to find an offensive identity but boasts a strong defense. South Florida might have the top offense in the conference but has had some defensive lapses thus far. It will be interesting to see which unit shows the improvement to lead their team to victory.
Upset alert: Connecticut at Maryland. I get a little leery when I see Connecticut as a road favorite against another BCS school. I have been bashing Maryland (based on last season), but they are 2-0 coming off a win against another Big East school in Temple. Last week: Begrudgingly Maryland over Temple
Player in the spotlight: Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville. Let's put a spotlight on Mr. Bridgewater this week in a big non-conference game against North Carolina. The Tar Heels can score points, so it will be imperative for Bridgewater to continue his strong play to lead the Cardinals to victory and stamp Louisville as both a viable contender in the Big East and nationally. Last week: Ryan Nassib, 30-46, 322 yards, 2 TD, 2 Int in a 42-29 loss vs USC.
Non-BCS Conferences
What I am watching: I am always watching for how many victories the Non-BCS schools can accumulate against the BCS conferences. Ohio, Nevada, Colorado State, Utah State, Louisiana-Monroe, and Rice have done it the first two weeks with the victories over Penn State, California, Colorado, Utah, Arkansas and Kansas, respectively. Last season the total was 15. Which games this week might add to the current 6? Let's watch these 8...Louisiana-Monroe at Auburn, Texas A&M at SMU, Western Michigan at Minnesota, Ball State at Indiana, Washington State at UNLV, Colorado at Fresno State, Utah State at Wisconsin and Louisiana-Lafayette at Oklahoma State.
Upset alert: East Carolina at Southern Mississippi. Both teams have uncertain quarterback situations, so don't be surprised if the Pirates pull the upset in this closely-contested conference rivalry. Last week: North Dakota State over Colorado State (5-2 on upsets, not too bad).
Player on the spot: Rakeem Cato, QB, Marshall. Cato has a chance to make a name for himself and halt my early talk of an unbeaten season for Ohio. Through two games Cato has been superb, but a different challenge awaits him with the Bobcats defense. If he can outplay his counterpart Tyler Tettleton, Marshall could exact revenge from last year's thrashing at Ohio. Last week: Travis Bush, OC, Houston, 93 total yards, 580 yards passing in a 56-49 loss to Louisiana Tech.
Wednesday, September 12, 2012
College Football 2012 - Week 2 Recap
PAC-12
Predominant thought: The PAC-12 had a huge week 2, with UCLA, Arizona and Oregon State pulling off big upsets to support the usual winning ways of USC, Oregon and Stanford. Since we are still in the BCS Championship era, the computers will ultimately like what the PAC-12 did this week should a one-loss USC or Oregon need that support. As far as the teams pulling the upsets, UCLA looks like it might have the most staying power.
3 Quick hits:
1. Oregon Ducks (BCS National Title Game)
2. USC Trojans (Rose Bowl)
3. UCLA Bruins (Alamo Bowl)
4. Stanford Cardinal (Holiday Bowl)
5. Washington Huskies (Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl)
6. Arizona Wildcats (Sun Bowl)
7. Arizona State Sun Devils (Las Vegas Bowl)
8. Utah Utes (New Mexico Bowl)
9. Washington State Cougars
10. California Golden Bears
11. Oregon State Beavers
99. Colorado Buffaloes
Big 10
Predominant thought: And then there was one. Michigan State is the lone remaining BCS Title contender after two weeks. Ohio State would be, but they can't be. Michigan, Nebraska and Wisconsin...done. And with these performances along with those of Iowa, Purdue and Illinois, the Big 10 has almost zero chance of having a one-loss team even mentioned in BCS Title conversation.
3 Quick hits:
1. Michigan State Spartans (Rose Bowl)
2. Michigan Wolverines (Capital One Bowl)
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (Probation Bowl)
4. Nebraska Cornhuskers (Outback Bowl)
5. Wisconsin Badgers (Gator Bowl)
6. Purdue Boilermakers (Valley of the Sun Bowl)
7. Northwestern Wildcats (Texas Bowl)
8. Iowa Hawkeyes (TicketCity Bowl)
9. Illinois Fighting Illini
10. Minnesota Golden Gophers
11. Penn State Nittany Lions
12. Indiana Hoosiers
(currently not filling the Little Caesars Bowl slot)
SEC
Predominant thought: Same old, same old. Alabama and LSU are building dynasties and the other teams in the SEC can't keep up. Arkansas is the latest contender to turn into fool's gold. Yes, they lost their quarterback for the 2nd half of the Louisiana-Monroe debacle, but he was getting hit hard in the first half by the ULM defense. What is going to happen when Arkansas faces Alabama's D this weekend? I still think Georgia is the best bet to dethrone the two powers, but as the weeks go on, smart money will be on the November 3rd winner for the National Championship.
3 Quick hits:
1. Georgia Bulldogs (BCS National Title Game)
2. LSU Tigers (Sugar Bowl)
3. Alabama Crimson Tide (Cotton Bowl)
4. South Carolina Gamecocks (Capital One Bowl)
5. Arkansas Razorbacks (Outback Bowl)
6. Tennessee Volunteers (Gator Bowl)
7. Florida Gators (Chick Fil-A Bowl)
8. Mississippi State Bulldogs (BBVA Compass Bowl)
9. Texas A&M Aggies (Music City Bowl)
10. Missouri Tigers (Liberty Bowl)
11. Vanderbilt Commodores (Independence Bowl)
12. Auburn Tigers
13. Ole Miss Rebels
14. Kentucky Wildcats
Big 12
Predominant thought: Kansas State is a contender and Oklahoma State, well, we will wait and see. The Wildcats impressive win over Miami proved last season was no fluke and with Oklahoma seeming fairly mortal at this point, K-State has to be considered as part of the Big 12 race. The Cowboys learned that life with a freshman quarterback can be dicey. They also lost the turnover battle, which was a key to their success a year ago. If these trends continue, Oklahoma State will be in for a long year.
3 Quick hits:
1. West Virginia Mountaineers (Sugar Bowl)
2. Oklahoma Sooners (Fiesta Bowl)
3. Kansas State Wildcats (Alamo Bowl)
4. Texas Longhorns (Cotton Bowl)
5. TCU Horned Frogs (Holiday Bowl)
6. Oklahoma State Cowboys (Valley of the Sun Bowl)
7. Baylor Bears (Texas Bowl)
8. Texas Tech Red Raiders
9. Iowa State Cyclones
10. Kansas Jayhawks
(currently not filling the Pinstripe Bowl slot)
ACC
Predominant thought: Clemson's offense looks unstoppable and they get Sammy Watkins back this week. Stop if you thought I was writing about 2011. The Tigers are starting out fast, much like a year ago. The defense is not dominant, but the offense ranks among the most feared in the nation. They have one week to work Watkins in the mix before traveling to Florida State for one of the best games of the year. Clemson hopes the repeat trend of last season continues with another victory over the 'Noles, but hopes to reverse the repeat trend and finish stronger in 2012.
3 Quick hits:
1. Florida State Seminoles (Orange Bowl)
2. Clemson Tigers (Fiesta Bowl)
3. Virginia Tech Hokies (Chick Fil-a Bowl)
4. North Carolina State Wolfpack (Russell Athletic Bowl)
5. Virginia Cavaliers (Sun Bowl)
6. Georgia Tech Yellowjackets (Belk Bowl)
7. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (Music City Bowl)
8. North Carolina Tar Heels (Probation Bowl)
9. Miami Hurricanes
10. Maryland Terrapins
11. Duke Blue Devils
12. Boston College Eagles
(currently not filling Independence Bowl or Military Bowl slots)
Big East
Predominant thought: I like the top 4 teams in the Big East, but they might be the only 4 to go bowling this year. It should be a wild race for the Big East Championship in the last year as currently constructed, but 0-2 starts from Pitt and Syracuse (the exiting members) and a suspect offense in Connecticut have me wondering if the Big East will get more than 4 teams bowl-eligible. Right now my money says no.
3 Quick hits:
1. Rutgers Scarlett Knights (Orange Bowl)
2. Louisville Cardinals (Pinstripe Bowl)
3. Cincinnati Bearcats (BBVA Compass Bowl)
4. South Florida Bulls (Russell Athletic Bowl)
5. Connecticut Huskies
6. Syracuse Orange
7. Pittsburgh Panthers
8. Temple Owls
(currently not filling Beef O'Brady's Bowl slot)
Other Conferences/Independents
Predominant thought: It is now time to find out who the real Notre Dame and BYU are in 2012. The Fighting Irish have the Michigan State/Michigan double dip the next two weeks while the Cougars have a Utah/Boise State back-to-back over the course of five days. If either one comes out 4-0 we will have a BCS caliber team on our hands.
3 Quick hits:
1. BYU Cougars (Poinsettia Bowl)
2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Belk Bowl)
3. Ohio Bobcats (Little Caesars Bowl)
4. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (New Orleans Bowl)
5. Boise State Broncos (Las Vegas Bowl)
6. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl)
7. Utah State Aggies (Little Caesars Bowl**)
8. Nevada Wolfpack (Poinsettia Bowl)
9. Louisiana Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (GoDaddy.com Bowl)
10. Northern Illinois Huskies (GoDaddy.com Bowl)
Other Projected Bowl Eligible Teams:
Tulsa Golden Hurricane (Liberty Bowl)
SMU Mustangs (TicketCity Bowl)
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (New Orleans Bowl)
Marshall Thundering Herd (Hawaii Bowl)
East Carolina Pirates (Beef O'Brady's Bowl)
Houston Cougars (Armed Forces Bowl)
Western Michigan Broncos (Pinstripe Bowl**)
Toledo Rockets (Military Bowl**)
Bowling Green Falcons (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl)
Fresno State Bulldogs (Hawaii Bowl)
San Diego State Aztecs (Military Bowl**)
Air Force Falcons (Armed Forces Bowl)
Wyoming Cowboys (New Mexico Bowl)
Florida International Panthers (Beef O'Brady's Bowl**)
Arkansas State Redhawks (Independence Bowl**)
Navy Midshipmen (Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl)
Predominant thought: The PAC-12 had a huge week 2, with UCLA, Arizona and Oregon State pulling off big upsets to support the usual winning ways of USC, Oregon and Stanford. Since we are still in the BCS Championship era, the computers will ultimately like what the PAC-12 did this week should a one-loss USC or Oregon need that support. As far as the teams pulling the upsets, UCLA looks like it might have the most staying power.
3 Quick hits:
- Utah is in trouble with Jordan Wynn done for his career. With the PAC-12 looking deeper this year and BYU looming this week, the usually consistent Utes are going to have to step-up their game to qualify for a bowl in 2012.
- Colorado is just terrible. Plain terrible.
- The middle of the PAC-12 is going to be wild this year, and by middle I mean everyone between Oregon/USC and Colorado. A couple of these teams are going to be left home for the holidays, so each game is of high importance. Three teams with a potential disadvantage - I mentioned Utah staring at a 1-2 start, so is California (at Ohio State this week) and Oregon State is short one very winnable game at this point in time (Nicholls State cancellation).
1. Oregon Ducks (BCS National Title Game)
2. USC Trojans (Rose Bowl)
3. UCLA Bruins (Alamo Bowl)
4. Stanford Cardinal (Holiday Bowl)
5. Washington Huskies (Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl)
6. Arizona Wildcats (Sun Bowl)
7. Arizona State Sun Devils (Las Vegas Bowl)
8. Utah Utes (New Mexico Bowl)
9. Washington State Cougars
10. California Golden Bears
11. Oregon State Beavers
99. Colorado Buffaloes
Big 10
Predominant thought: And then there was one. Michigan State is the lone remaining BCS Title contender after two weeks. Ohio State would be, but they can't be. Michigan, Nebraska and Wisconsin...done. And with these performances along with those of Iowa, Purdue and Illinois, the Big 10 has almost zero chance of having a one-loss team even mentioned in BCS Title conversation.
3 Quick hits:
- My homer apology - I honestly thought Wisconsin would just plug-in offensive lineman and keep the train moving. I am sorry I was wrong. No holes for the running game. Pressure on the quarterback (fyi-Danny O'Brien lacks pocket-presence). A season of high hopes on the brink.
- Despite the upset by UCLA, Nebraska seems to be in better shape than Wisconsin, although the Husker problems are on the defensive side of the ball. Fortunately for Nebraska, a good majority of the Big 10 appears offensively challenged.
- I really don't know how good Northwestern is, but kudos to the Wildcats for a 2-0 start against 2 BCS opponents. Syracuse and Vanderbilt are not the upper-echelon, but who else is playing fellow-BCS schools this time of year? Next up: Boston College out of the ACC.
1. Michigan State Spartans (Rose Bowl)
2. Michigan Wolverines (Capital One Bowl)
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (Probation Bowl)
4. Nebraska Cornhuskers (Outback Bowl)
5. Wisconsin Badgers (Gator Bowl)
6. Purdue Boilermakers (Valley of the Sun Bowl)
7. Northwestern Wildcats (Texas Bowl)
8. Iowa Hawkeyes (TicketCity Bowl)
9. Illinois Fighting Illini
10. Minnesota Golden Gophers
11. Penn State Nittany Lions
12. Indiana Hoosiers
(currently not filling the Little Caesars Bowl slot)
SEC
Predominant thought: Same old, same old. Alabama and LSU are building dynasties and the other teams in the SEC can't keep up. Arkansas is the latest contender to turn into fool's gold. Yes, they lost their quarterback for the 2nd half of the Louisiana-Monroe debacle, but he was getting hit hard in the first half by the ULM defense. What is going to happen when Arkansas faces Alabama's D this weekend? I still think Georgia is the best bet to dethrone the two powers, but as the weeks go on, smart money will be on the November 3rd winner for the National Championship.
3 Quick hits:
- Mississippi State finally solved the Auburn hex, but what to make of these two teams now? Auburn is in a bit of trouble as they are losing the physical battle and don't have some of the usual game-breaking talent to make up for it. Mississippi State is probably exactly what we thought and will beat the teams they are supposed to and lose to the teams they are not.
- Florida is going to need to continue to have the close game magic because this offense is going nowhere in 2012. 20 points on Texas A&M is like 10 against most SEC teams.
- 2012 appeared to be a year that Vanderbilt took a step forward as a program and built on a solid 2011. Two games in and two close losses have the Commodores stuck in neutral and dangerously close to reverse. A quick glance at the schedule shows that this team has their most winnable games on the road and better find a way to come out on the plus side of close games or it will be a long 2012 in Nashville.
1. Georgia Bulldogs (BCS National Title Game)
2. LSU Tigers (Sugar Bowl)
3. Alabama Crimson Tide (Cotton Bowl)
4. South Carolina Gamecocks (Capital One Bowl)
5. Arkansas Razorbacks (Outback Bowl)
6. Tennessee Volunteers (Gator Bowl)
7. Florida Gators (Chick Fil-A Bowl)
8. Mississippi State Bulldogs (BBVA Compass Bowl)
9. Texas A&M Aggies (Music City Bowl)
10. Missouri Tigers (Liberty Bowl)
11. Vanderbilt Commodores (Independence Bowl)
12. Auburn Tigers
13. Ole Miss Rebels
14. Kentucky Wildcats
Big 12
Predominant thought: Kansas State is a contender and Oklahoma State, well, we will wait and see. The Wildcats impressive win over Miami proved last season was no fluke and with Oklahoma seeming fairly mortal at this point, K-State has to be considered as part of the Big 12 race. The Cowboys learned that life with a freshman quarterback can be dicey. They also lost the turnover battle, which was a key to their success a year ago. If these trends continue, Oklahoma State will be in for a long year.
3 Quick hits:
- Iowa State is 2-0 and with wins over Tulsa and Iowa it is one of the better 2-0 records in the country. Despite their start, the offense will need to be better against the high fliers in the Big 12. It looks like 3-6 will be all that is needed for bowl eligibility, but right now I am still not sure how they get there.
- Texas remains a bit of a mystery as the Longhorns have been good, not great, through two weeks. Is this team ready when the competition takes a step-up?
- Kansas is bad, just not Colorado bad. Losing to Rice at home is something you never tell your family about.
1. West Virginia Mountaineers (Sugar Bowl)
2. Oklahoma Sooners (Fiesta Bowl)
3. Kansas State Wildcats (Alamo Bowl)
4. Texas Longhorns (Cotton Bowl)
5. TCU Horned Frogs (Holiday Bowl)
6. Oklahoma State Cowboys (Valley of the Sun Bowl)
7. Baylor Bears (Texas Bowl)
8. Texas Tech Red Raiders
9. Iowa State Cyclones
10. Kansas Jayhawks
(currently not filling the Pinstripe Bowl slot)
ACC
Predominant thought: Clemson's offense looks unstoppable and they get Sammy Watkins back this week. Stop if you thought I was writing about 2011. The Tigers are starting out fast, much like a year ago. The defense is not dominant, but the offense ranks among the most feared in the nation. They have one week to work Watkins in the mix before traveling to Florida State for one of the best games of the year. Clemson hopes the repeat trend of last season continues with another victory over the 'Noles, but hopes to reverse the repeat trend and finish stronger in 2012.
3 Quick hits:
- Giovanni Bernard is an important piece to any success North Carolina has in their probation season. His undisclosed absence from Saturday's game does not bode well as the Heels head to Louisville this week.
- On the flip side, Wake Forest is case in point of a Week 1 over-reaction. The Demon Deacons struggled to beat Liberty, but rebounded nicely with the win over North Carolina. The recent history of Wake Forest is that their record always ends up better than we thought.
- Kudos to Maryland for exacting revenge on Temple and moving to 2-0 despite injuries and player defections. The schedule will be much more difficult from here on out, but a little confidence can go a long way in a College Football season.
1. Florida State Seminoles (Orange Bowl)
2. Clemson Tigers (Fiesta Bowl)
3. Virginia Tech Hokies (Chick Fil-a Bowl)
4. North Carolina State Wolfpack (Russell Athletic Bowl)
5. Virginia Cavaliers (Sun Bowl)
6. Georgia Tech Yellowjackets (Belk Bowl)
7. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (Music City Bowl)
8. North Carolina Tar Heels (Probation Bowl)
9. Miami Hurricanes
10. Maryland Terrapins
11. Duke Blue Devils
12. Boston College Eagles
(currently not filling Independence Bowl or Military Bowl slots)
Big East
Predominant thought: I like the top 4 teams in the Big East, but they might be the only 4 to go bowling this year. It should be a wild race for the Big East Championship in the last year as currently constructed, but 0-2 starts from Pitt and Syracuse (the exiting members) and a suspect offense in Connecticut have me wondering if the Big East will get more than 4 teams bowl-eligible. Right now my money says no.
3 Quick hits:
- I think it is ironic that I forgot to type what I was watching in the Big East Week 2 preview. There wasn't much to see here.
- You don't hear much about Cincinnati, but do not overlook the Bearcats in the Big East race. Cincinnati has recruited good depth and if the quarterback play is there, we will hear from this team before the season is out.
- "Syracuse is the best 0-2 team in the country". Really? Are you taking the 'Cuse over Auburn or Vanderbilt? Didn't think so.
1. Rutgers Scarlett Knights (Orange Bowl)
2. Louisville Cardinals (Pinstripe Bowl)
3. Cincinnati Bearcats (BBVA Compass Bowl)
4. South Florida Bulls (Russell Athletic Bowl)
5. Connecticut Huskies
6. Syracuse Orange
7. Pittsburgh Panthers
8. Temple Owls
(currently not filling Beef O'Brady's Bowl slot)
Other Conferences/Independents
Predominant thought: It is now time to find out who the real Notre Dame and BYU are in 2012. The Fighting Irish have the Michigan State/Michigan double dip the next two weeks while the Cougars have a Utah/Boise State back-to-back over the course of five days. If either one comes out 4-0 we will have a BCS caliber team on our hands.
3 Quick hits:
- Kudos to the Warhawks. While I picked Louisiana-Monroe to win the Sun Belt and cover last week against Arkansas, I did not see that upset coming. This is a really solid team that should give Auburn everything they can handle this week.
- Raise your hand if you have any clue who is going to win Conference-USA this year. After all the quarterback losses to graduation, this conference appears as unpredictable as ever this season. The conference is also off to a 6-16 start, which does not bode well for bowl-eligibility slots either, especially with one team (UCF) already out of the mix.
- Name the three conferences where every team has at least one win...The ACC and the Big 12 are the first two answers. The 3rd is the Sun Belt Conference, often maligned as the worst of the FBS conferences.
1. BYU Cougars (Poinsettia Bowl)
2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Belk Bowl)
3. Ohio Bobcats (Little Caesars Bowl)
4. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (New Orleans Bowl)
5. Boise State Broncos (Las Vegas Bowl)
6. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl)
7. Utah State Aggies (Little Caesars Bowl**)
8. Nevada Wolfpack (Poinsettia Bowl)
9. Louisiana Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (GoDaddy.com Bowl)
10. Northern Illinois Huskies (GoDaddy.com Bowl)
Other Projected Bowl Eligible Teams:
Tulsa Golden Hurricane (Liberty Bowl)
SMU Mustangs (TicketCity Bowl)
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (New Orleans Bowl)
Marshall Thundering Herd (Hawaii Bowl)
East Carolina Pirates (Beef O'Brady's Bowl)
Houston Cougars (Armed Forces Bowl)
Western Michigan Broncos (Pinstripe Bowl**)
Toledo Rockets (Military Bowl**)
Bowling Green Falcons (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl)
Fresno State Bulldogs (Hawaii Bowl)
San Diego State Aztecs (Military Bowl**)
Air Force Falcons (Armed Forces Bowl)
Wyoming Cowboys (New Mexico Bowl)
Florida International Panthers (Beef O'Brady's Bowl**)
Arkansas State Redhawks (Independence Bowl**)
Navy Midshipmen (Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl)
Friday, September 7, 2012
College Football Week 2 - Jabesblog picks
Instead of picking every game straight up this year, I thought I would go more Vegas-style and select certain games each week to pick against the spread. I skipped Week 1 as betting on Week 1 with all the unknowns seems like a losing proposition. So I start Week 2 with a 0-0 record.
Lock of the Week: Louisiana-Monroe +30.5 at Arkansas. Three factors lead me here. 1) The Arkansas defense is not necessarily strong enough to support this line. 2) Louisiana-Monroe is decent on both sides of the ball and 3) Arkansas is looking ahead to Alabama next week. Arkansas 41, Louisiana-Monroe 21.
Heavy Favorite Pick of the Week: USC -26 at Syracuse. The Trojans, even away from home, need to win big to impress voters. USC 45, Syracuse 10.
Heavy Underdog of the Week: Purdue +14 at Notre Dame. There has to be some type of travel discount for Notre Dame and I believe Purdue is slightly under-rated. I think Notre Dame wins a close one. Notre Dame 27, Purdue 24.
Other Picks of the Week:
Georgia -2 at Missouri. If the Dawgs are going to live up to billing, they have to get it together from the start this year. Georgia 38, Missouri 24.
UCLA +5 vs Nebraska. I talked about the PAC-12 factor in my Week 2 preview and Taylor Martinez needs to show me he can be that good 2 weeks in a row. UCLA 26, Nebraska 24.
Nevada +1 vs South Florida. Confidence should be high for the Wolfpack who might play with an edge as a home underdog a week after winning at Cal. Nevada 27, South Florida 20.
Louisiana Tech -3 at Houston. Houston seems like a disaster and I like Louisiana Tech this year. Tech also blew the game a year ago and gets revenge. Louisiana Tech 34, Houston 28.
Texas State +18.5 vs Texas Tech. Texas State is brimming with confidence and Texas Tech is a heavy road favorite. Texas Tech 31, Texas State 20.
Texas A&M pick'em vs Florida. Florida struggled somewhat last week and A&M brings the Sumlin magic to their offense. Texas A&M 23, Florida 17.
Lock of the Week: Louisiana-Monroe +30.5 at Arkansas. Three factors lead me here. 1) The Arkansas defense is not necessarily strong enough to support this line. 2) Louisiana-Monroe is decent on both sides of the ball and 3) Arkansas is looking ahead to Alabama next week. Arkansas 41, Louisiana-Monroe 21.
Heavy Favorite Pick of the Week: USC -26 at Syracuse. The Trojans, even away from home, need to win big to impress voters. USC 45, Syracuse 10.
Heavy Underdog of the Week: Purdue +14 at Notre Dame. There has to be some type of travel discount for Notre Dame and I believe Purdue is slightly under-rated. I think Notre Dame wins a close one. Notre Dame 27, Purdue 24.
Other Picks of the Week:
Georgia -2 at Missouri. If the Dawgs are going to live up to billing, they have to get it together from the start this year. Georgia 38, Missouri 24.
UCLA +5 vs Nebraska. I talked about the PAC-12 factor in my Week 2 preview and Taylor Martinez needs to show me he can be that good 2 weeks in a row. UCLA 26, Nebraska 24.
Nevada +1 vs South Florida. Confidence should be high for the Wolfpack who might play with an edge as a home underdog a week after winning at Cal. Nevada 27, South Florida 20.
Louisiana Tech -3 at Houston. Houston seems like a disaster and I like Louisiana Tech this year. Tech also blew the game a year ago and gets revenge. Louisiana Tech 34, Houston 28.
Texas State +18.5 vs Texas Tech. Texas State is brimming with confidence and Texas Tech is a heavy road favorite. Texas Tech 31, Texas State 20.
Texas A&M pick'em vs Florida. Florida struggled somewhat last week and A&M brings the Sumlin magic to their offense. Texas A&M 23, Florida 17.
College Football 2012 - Week 2 Preview
Big 10
What I am watching: How will Wisconsin, Nebraska and Illinois fair in a triumvirate of road games against PAC-12 squads? The left coast has not been kind to the Big 10 in the regular season or Rose Bowl, so these 3 teams are on danger alert this weekend. This will also give some indication how these two conferences stack up against each other come BCS time.
Upset alert: Nebraska at UCLA. See above, plus the uncertain status of Rex Burkhead. Can Taylor Martinez take his impressive passing show from a week ago on the road?
Player on the spot: Andrew Maxwell, QB, Michigan State. The Spartans make a road trip to Central Michigan and need to get their signal-caller going for upcoming games against Notre Dame and the Big 10. Sparty also needs receiving options to step forward and help the first-year starter.
ACC
What I am watching: Since I vested myself in North Carolina State with my 10-2 prediction for them, I am interested how they respond to the Tennessee loss with a trip at a solid Connecticut Huskies squad. An 0-2 start would be a disaster and would leave Clemson and Florida State likely in a two-team race in the ACC Atlantic.
Upset alert: North Carolina at Wake Forest. The Tar Heels looked good against Elon College, the Deacons struggled against Liberty. It wouldn't be the first time a team bounced back at home after such a performance.
Player on the spot: Perry Jones, RB, Virginia. The electric Jones may need to make some big plays to open up the passing game against a Penn State defense trying to rebound from a poor 2nd half against Ohio last week. Jones could be the difference-maker on the field Saturday in Charlottesville.
SEC
What I am watching: The two newbies, Missouri and Texas A&M get their first conference action by hosting Georgia and Florida, respectively. The two have held their own in the Big 12, but the SEC is supposed to be a different animal. A&M had their first game wiped out, so the Gators represent their opening act of 2012 with a new coach and quarterback. Based on Houston's performance last week, it appears Kevin Sumlin took a lot of offensive knowledge with him to College Station. Missouri gets Georgia and the unknown of the Dawgs suspended defensive players. Once Georgia gets back to 100%, this team should be elite. Missouri catches them at a good time.
Upset alert: Vanderbilt at Northwestern. The Commodores played South Carolina tough last week but as usual, ended up with a close loss against a supposed superior opponent. Northwestern is more on par with Vandy, but the Wildcats seem very dangerous as a home underdog.
Coach on the spot: Dan Mullen, Mississipp State. Mullen has never beaten Auburn. Last season the Bulldogs were a foot from overtime. This year Auburn appears vulnerable once again and optimism reins in Starkville. Mullen needs to find a way to beat Auburn if Mississippi State is ever going to take a step forward to the upper-division of the SEC West.
Big 12
What I am watching: Three Big 12 teams play against fellow BCS schools...Oklahoma State travels to Arizona, Iowa State slugs it out at Iowa and Kansas State hosts Miami, FL. The Big 12 did not schedule many games the likes of these, so these will provide a barometer of both these 3 teams and the conference as a whole. I am especially interested in the Kansas State/Miami game, as it was the game last year at Miami that announced Kansas State as a team to watch. A home victory here would signify that they plan on sticking around the upper-echelon in 2012.
Upset alert: Kansas State vs Miami, FL. The above being said, the Wildcats made a living of playing close games a season ago and anything can happen in such instances. The Hurricanes were good in Week 1 and have talent equal or better than K-State.
Player on the spot: Steele Jantz, QB, Iowa State. Jantz had a solid performance against Tulsa, but may need to improve on his 6.3 ypa to upset rival Iowa. It will also be Jantz's first trip into Iowa City, a place that most Cylcone quarterbacks come out with L's.
PAC-12
What I am watching: 7 PAC-12 teams are in action against fellow BCS conference teams and 2 others play non-slouches Fresno State and Utah State. With USC and Oregon already penciled-in for two match-ups that could leave both with at least one loss, the PAC-12 needs to show in these non-conference games to boost the BCS Title chances of the Trojans and Ducks. The biggest coup would be Washington going into LSU and throwing a huge wrench into the National Title picture. Regardless it will be a telling weekend in the PAC-12.
Upset alert: Arizona State vs Illinois. The Sun Devils have the PAC-12 history on their side and the offense looked impressive a week ago, but Illinois beat Arizona State a year ago and have a veteran quarterback leading them into Tempe. The Illini were a sleeper for some in the Big 10 and can capture some attention with a road win Saturday.
Player on the spot: Johnathan Franklin, RB, UCLA. If the Bruins are going to upset the Cornhuskers, Franklin is going to need to play a huge role. After thrashing Rice for 214 yards a week ago, Franklin should be bursting with confidence going in against a fairly inexperienced Husker run defense.
Big East
What I am watching:
Upset alert: Temple vs Maryland. Because their are no others on the board. I don't think this will happen either.
Player on the spot: Ryan Nassib, QB, Syracuse. If he somehow outplays Matt Barkley, is Nassib a Heisman contender?
Non-BCS Conferences
What I am watching: Will any teams from the non-BCS conferences add to the wins over BCS conference teams this week? Ohio, Nevada and Colorado State tallied wins over BCS conference teams a week ago. Potential spots for week 2...Utah State vs Utah, Texas State vs Texas Tech, Kent State at Kenucky and Rice at Kansas.
Upset alert: Colorado State vs North Dakota State. The Rams, fresh off a win vs rival Colorado, take on the FCS champions from a year-ago in North Dakota State. The talent difference will not likely be that great if Colorado State is not ready.
Coordinator on the spot: Travis Bush, OC, Houston. When your offensive coordinator resigns after one week something is amiss. Bush steps in Mike Nesbitt after last week's debacle vs Texas State. With big expectations, the Cougars need to rebound against a talented Louisiana Tech team.
What I am watching: How will Wisconsin, Nebraska and Illinois fair in a triumvirate of road games against PAC-12 squads? The left coast has not been kind to the Big 10 in the regular season or Rose Bowl, so these 3 teams are on danger alert this weekend. This will also give some indication how these two conferences stack up against each other come BCS time.
Upset alert: Nebraska at UCLA. See above, plus the uncertain status of Rex Burkhead. Can Taylor Martinez take his impressive passing show from a week ago on the road?
Player on the spot: Andrew Maxwell, QB, Michigan State. The Spartans make a road trip to Central Michigan and need to get their signal-caller going for upcoming games against Notre Dame and the Big 10. Sparty also needs receiving options to step forward and help the first-year starter.
ACC
What I am watching: Since I vested myself in North Carolina State with my 10-2 prediction for them, I am interested how they respond to the Tennessee loss with a trip at a solid Connecticut Huskies squad. An 0-2 start would be a disaster and would leave Clemson and Florida State likely in a two-team race in the ACC Atlantic.
Upset alert: North Carolina at Wake Forest. The Tar Heels looked good against Elon College, the Deacons struggled against Liberty. It wouldn't be the first time a team bounced back at home after such a performance.
Player on the spot: Perry Jones, RB, Virginia. The electric Jones may need to make some big plays to open up the passing game against a Penn State defense trying to rebound from a poor 2nd half against Ohio last week. Jones could be the difference-maker on the field Saturday in Charlottesville.
SEC
What I am watching: The two newbies, Missouri and Texas A&M get their first conference action by hosting Georgia and Florida, respectively. The two have held their own in the Big 12, but the SEC is supposed to be a different animal. A&M had their first game wiped out, so the Gators represent their opening act of 2012 with a new coach and quarterback. Based on Houston's performance last week, it appears Kevin Sumlin took a lot of offensive knowledge with him to College Station. Missouri gets Georgia and the unknown of the Dawgs suspended defensive players. Once Georgia gets back to 100%, this team should be elite. Missouri catches them at a good time.
Upset alert: Vanderbilt at Northwestern. The Commodores played South Carolina tough last week but as usual, ended up with a close loss against a supposed superior opponent. Northwestern is more on par with Vandy, but the Wildcats seem very dangerous as a home underdog.
Coach on the spot: Dan Mullen, Mississipp State. Mullen has never beaten Auburn. Last season the Bulldogs were a foot from overtime. This year Auburn appears vulnerable once again and optimism reins in Starkville. Mullen needs to find a way to beat Auburn if Mississippi State is ever going to take a step forward to the upper-division of the SEC West.
Big 12
What I am watching: Three Big 12 teams play against fellow BCS schools...Oklahoma State travels to Arizona, Iowa State slugs it out at Iowa and Kansas State hosts Miami, FL. The Big 12 did not schedule many games the likes of these, so these will provide a barometer of both these 3 teams and the conference as a whole. I am especially interested in the Kansas State/Miami game, as it was the game last year at Miami that announced Kansas State as a team to watch. A home victory here would signify that they plan on sticking around the upper-echelon in 2012.
Upset alert: Kansas State vs Miami, FL. The above being said, the Wildcats made a living of playing close games a season ago and anything can happen in such instances. The Hurricanes were good in Week 1 and have talent equal or better than K-State.
Player on the spot: Steele Jantz, QB, Iowa State. Jantz had a solid performance against Tulsa, but may need to improve on his 6.3 ypa to upset rival Iowa. It will also be Jantz's first trip into Iowa City, a place that most Cylcone quarterbacks come out with L's.
PAC-12
What I am watching: 7 PAC-12 teams are in action against fellow BCS conference teams and 2 others play non-slouches Fresno State and Utah State. With USC and Oregon already penciled-in for two match-ups that could leave both with at least one loss, the PAC-12 needs to show in these non-conference games to boost the BCS Title chances of the Trojans and Ducks. The biggest coup would be Washington going into LSU and throwing a huge wrench into the National Title picture. Regardless it will be a telling weekend in the PAC-12.
Upset alert: Arizona State vs Illinois. The Sun Devils have the PAC-12 history on their side and the offense looked impressive a week ago, but Illinois beat Arizona State a year ago and have a veteran quarterback leading them into Tempe. The Illini were a sleeper for some in the Big 10 and can capture some attention with a road win Saturday.
Player on the spot: Johnathan Franklin, RB, UCLA. If the Bruins are going to upset the Cornhuskers, Franklin is going to need to play a huge role. After thrashing Rice for 214 yards a week ago, Franklin should be bursting with confidence going in against a fairly inexperienced Husker run defense.
Big East
What I am watching:
Upset alert: Temple vs Maryland. Because their are no others on the board. I don't think this will happen either.
Player on the spot: Ryan Nassib, QB, Syracuse. If he somehow outplays Matt Barkley, is Nassib a Heisman contender?
Non-BCS Conferences
What I am watching: Will any teams from the non-BCS conferences add to the wins over BCS conference teams this week? Ohio, Nevada and Colorado State tallied wins over BCS conference teams a week ago. Potential spots for week 2...Utah State vs Utah, Texas State vs Texas Tech, Kent State at Kenucky and Rice at Kansas.
Upset alert: Colorado State vs North Dakota State. The Rams, fresh off a win vs rival Colorado, take on the FCS champions from a year-ago in North Dakota State. The talent difference will not likely be that great if Colorado State is not ready.
Coordinator on the spot: Travis Bush, OC, Houston. When your offensive coordinator resigns after one week something is amiss. Bush steps in Mike Nesbitt after last week's debacle vs Texas State. With big expectations, the Cougars need to rebound against a talented Louisiana Tech team.
Thursday, September 6, 2012
College Football 2012 - Week 1 Recap
Here are my thoughts and observations from Week 1 in College Football. Before the season, I picked every game for each team in order to compile the records in my Conference predictions. After one week there are things I feel good about and other places I am willing to admit I made mistakes...
Big 10
Predominant thought: All the talk about the Big 10 being a stronger conference and making amends for their abysmal bowl record a year ago did not play out on the field very well. Michigan getting trounced by Alabama in the signature game of the week was not the only eyesore. Wisconsin had to squeak by an FCS team, Michigan State has to be worried about their quarterback at least a little, Iowa escaped a game they should have lost, etc. Ohio State looked really good, but they can't help the Big 10 come the post-season.
I was wrong about Wisconsin's adjustment period. Wisconsin usually plugs in new offensive lineman without missing a beat, but the Badgers were beaten consistently up front by Northern Iowa and were not getting blocks on the 2nd level. Wisconsin also failed to challenge Northern Iowa downfield despite 8 and 9 man boxes. While Danny O'Brien ended with a nice stat line, he is going to have to prove he can push the ball downfield to open up the running game.
I was right about Penn State's karma season. Nothing against the current players and coaches, but the NCAA made sure that Penn State would suffer and suffer immediately. It is going to be a long season in Happy Valley.
ACC
Predominant thought: The ACC Coastal Division appears to be a wide open race. Virginia Tech showed in Monday night's opener that they are a work in progress offensively. Just how long this work in progress takes will determine how wide open this division is. Georgia Tech impressed in a loss on a hostile environment, North Carolina looks to be an offensive force, Virginia will be right there and both Miami and Duke far exceeded expectations in week 1.
I was wrong about North Carolina State. Two years in a row I have selected an ACC team to make a leap toward potential BCS qualification and a top 10-15 program. A year ago Maryland rewarded me with a downright awful season. The Wolfpack are off to that kind of start after a lackluster showing that included 4 interceptions by their senior quarterback and a torching of their All-American cornerback. I think this will turn out better than Maryland, but NC State has to get it together and fast.
I was right about the long year ahead of Maryland. I was not going to be fooled twice by the crazy uniforms and a 7-6 win over William & Mary confirms this is a program headed in the wrong direction. Losing your starting quarterback before the season is never good, but when the expectations were already low, disaster is likely to follow.
Big 12
Predominant thought: After one week is it too early to worry about Oklahoma? The Sooners are not the only team that struggled week 1, but they are the highest rated team to struggle. Landry Jones continues to make me wonder whether he was a product of Ryan Broyles. The Sooner defense played well, so maybe all is not lost in an overall lackluster performance.
I was wrong about West Virginia's title chances. Like Oklahoma State last year, a high-powered offense can make up for some defensive deficiencies. The Mountaineers look to have the top offense on the East Coast, if not the nation. The defense has some work and the Cowboys added an unreal turnover margin to their offense a year ago, but West Virginia has to be mentioned right now as Big 12 and National Title contenders.
I was right about the Big 12's non non-conference schedule. 9-0 after week 1 and headed toward 28-2 or 29-1. While the numbers look great, the strength behind those numbers is not very awe-inspiring. It will be interesting to see how a one-loss Big 12 team will compare on the computers this season. The good news is the strength at the top of this conference should boost those numbers and the Big 12 plays a full round-robin, so there are no Georgia-like schedules here.
PAC-12
Predominant thought: How many days until USC vs Oregon version 1? The SEC can get all Jonesed-up about their Alabama-LSU snoozefests, but this is the game I am most looking forward to this year and neither teams offense disappointed in week 1. The weapons that will be on display November 3rd will be unrivaled in any other College Football game this year. There are obvious trip-ups along the way, but I fully expect these two teams to battle it out for one of the spots in the National Title Game.
I was wrong about the immediate impact of Mike Leach on the Washington State offense. Or is BYU's defense just that good? The Cougars were stymied by BYU and make my positive outlook on the Washington State season seem a little ambitious. There is a lot of season left to play and the PAC-12 has plenty of mediocre teams to tussle with, I am just a little more unsure now where WSU fits in the mediocrity hierarchy.
I was right about Colorado. The Buffaloes are not a very good team and like Maryland, are in for a long year with about a 3 win ceiling.
SEC
Predominant thought: How good did Alabama look and why did I put them in the Cotton Bowl? The Tide were definitely the big winners week 1 and have taken a small lead over LSU in the race for SEC/World dominance. It is a long season though and I will stick to my guns that this team will lose along the way, but it has to be a team stout up front that makes AJ McCarron have to win the game for Bama. I thought Arkansas might have what it takes in a few weeks, but they don't fit the physical bill.
I was wrong about Tennessee. I thought the Vols were a bit over-rated coming into the season and would be ripe for the pickings by NC State. Oops. Tennessee was impressive on both sides, flashed some new weapons offensively and may well be a factor in the SEC East after all.
I was right about Florida. The Gators are a work in progress offensively and the defense was not as dominating as predicted in week 1. The schedule gets tougher now and this team doesn't appear ready to be an SEC East contender yet. In fact, I think Tennessee may have passed them by to the 3rd chair. Should be a good matchup September 15th when they meet at the checkerboards.
Big East
Predominant thought: Can a BCS team lose to an FCS school and still contend for their league title? Pittsburgh had the biggest "ouch" of the week losing to Youngstown State. The Big East appears to be a wide open race, but Pittsburgh's name has to have fallen out of the running based on Week 1. The Panthers now need to fight for bowl eligibility (with Notre Dame and Virginia Tech still on the non-conference schedule).
I was wrong about Pittsburgh. See above. I had them as co-champions. I would replace them with South Florida at this time.
I was right about Syracuse. The Orange(men) stay competitive in the Carrier Dome, but I don't expect the "W" column to get much action this year. Ryan Nassib is a very good quarterback, the 'Cuse just lacks the talent that their basketball counterparts are able to bring in annually.
The Notre Dame conference
Predominant thought: The Irish handled Navy better than expected, does this mean big things in South Bend this season? My current thought is maybe. The schedule looked to be a huge obstacle, but Stanford, Pittsburgh, Michigan and even Michigan State have to look slightly less daunting after week 1. This will be an interesting case to follow.
I was right about BYU. The Cougars ended 2011 playing extremely well, returned key veterans and actually have a defense in Provo. BYU and Ohio are my two BCS busters to watch. The key stretch for BYU is the Sat/Thur back-to-back featuring Utah and Boise State Sept 15/20.
Non-BCS Conferences
Predominant thought: What a bad week for Conference USA. The usually competitive conference went 2-10, including losses to Texas State and Tennessee-Martin. The wins were against Akron and Appalachian State. The silver lining is that 7 losses were to BCS schools...by an average of 24 points.
I was wrong about Houston. The Cougars can thank Pittsburgh for taking some of the spotlight off their terrible loss to Texas State. A new coach and a new quarterback equalled no offense for Houston, who I had winning Conference USA. As you can see above, Houston is by know means alone and could still be a player in the title chase.
I was right about Ohio. The Bobcats did me proud and dispatched Penn State with a solid effort. Ohio, behind Tyler Tettleton and a very good defense, should be favored the rest of the way out, with road games against Marshall and Miami(OH) the apparent toughest tests. I am rooting for a 13-0 MAC teams to see if they qualify for the BCS.
Big 10
Predominant thought: All the talk about the Big 10 being a stronger conference and making amends for their abysmal bowl record a year ago did not play out on the field very well. Michigan getting trounced by Alabama in the signature game of the week was not the only eyesore. Wisconsin had to squeak by an FCS team, Michigan State has to be worried about their quarterback at least a little, Iowa escaped a game they should have lost, etc. Ohio State looked really good, but they can't help the Big 10 come the post-season.
I was wrong about Wisconsin's adjustment period. Wisconsin usually plugs in new offensive lineman without missing a beat, but the Badgers were beaten consistently up front by Northern Iowa and were not getting blocks on the 2nd level. Wisconsin also failed to challenge Northern Iowa downfield despite 8 and 9 man boxes. While Danny O'Brien ended with a nice stat line, he is going to have to prove he can push the ball downfield to open up the running game.
I was right about Penn State's karma season. Nothing against the current players and coaches, but the NCAA made sure that Penn State would suffer and suffer immediately. It is going to be a long season in Happy Valley.
ACC
Predominant thought: The ACC Coastal Division appears to be a wide open race. Virginia Tech showed in Monday night's opener that they are a work in progress offensively. Just how long this work in progress takes will determine how wide open this division is. Georgia Tech impressed in a loss on a hostile environment, North Carolina looks to be an offensive force, Virginia will be right there and both Miami and Duke far exceeded expectations in week 1.
I was wrong about North Carolina State. Two years in a row I have selected an ACC team to make a leap toward potential BCS qualification and a top 10-15 program. A year ago Maryland rewarded me with a downright awful season. The Wolfpack are off to that kind of start after a lackluster showing that included 4 interceptions by their senior quarterback and a torching of their All-American cornerback. I think this will turn out better than Maryland, but NC State has to get it together and fast.
I was right about the long year ahead of Maryland. I was not going to be fooled twice by the crazy uniforms and a 7-6 win over William & Mary confirms this is a program headed in the wrong direction. Losing your starting quarterback before the season is never good, but when the expectations were already low, disaster is likely to follow.
Big 12
Predominant thought: After one week is it too early to worry about Oklahoma? The Sooners are not the only team that struggled week 1, but they are the highest rated team to struggle. Landry Jones continues to make me wonder whether he was a product of Ryan Broyles. The Sooner defense played well, so maybe all is not lost in an overall lackluster performance.
I was wrong about West Virginia's title chances. Like Oklahoma State last year, a high-powered offense can make up for some defensive deficiencies. The Mountaineers look to have the top offense on the East Coast, if not the nation. The defense has some work and the Cowboys added an unreal turnover margin to their offense a year ago, but West Virginia has to be mentioned right now as Big 12 and National Title contenders.
I was right about the Big 12's non non-conference schedule. 9-0 after week 1 and headed toward 28-2 or 29-1. While the numbers look great, the strength behind those numbers is not very awe-inspiring. It will be interesting to see how a one-loss Big 12 team will compare on the computers this season. The good news is the strength at the top of this conference should boost those numbers and the Big 12 plays a full round-robin, so there are no Georgia-like schedules here.
PAC-12
Predominant thought: How many days until USC vs Oregon version 1? The SEC can get all Jonesed-up about their Alabama-LSU snoozefests, but this is the game I am most looking forward to this year and neither teams offense disappointed in week 1. The weapons that will be on display November 3rd will be unrivaled in any other College Football game this year. There are obvious trip-ups along the way, but I fully expect these two teams to battle it out for one of the spots in the National Title Game.
I was wrong about the immediate impact of Mike Leach on the Washington State offense. Or is BYU's defense just that good? The Cougars were stymied by BYU and make my positive outlook on the Washington State season seem a little ambitious. There is a lot of season left to play and the PAC-12 has plenty of mediocre teams to tussle with, I am just a little more unsure now where WSU fits in the mediocrity hierarchy.
I was right about Colorado. The Buffaloes are not a very good team and like Maryland, are in for a long year with about a 3 win ceiling.
SEC
Predominant thought: How good did Alabama look and why did I put them in the Cotton Bowl? The Tide were definitely the big winners week 1 and have taken a small lead over LSU in the race for SEC/World dominance. It is a long season though and I will stick to my guns that this team will lose along the way, but it has to be a team stout up front that makes AJ McCarron have to win the game for Bama. I thought Arkansas might have what it takes in a few weeks, but they don't fit the physical bill.
I was wrong about Tennessee. I thought the Vols were a bit over-rated coming into the season and would be ripe for the pickings by NC State. Oops. Tennessee was impressive on both sides, flashed some new weapons offensively and may well be a factor in the SEC East after all.
I was right about Florida. The Gators are a work in progress offensively and the defense was not as dominating as predicted in week 1. The schedule gets tougher now and this team doesn't appear ready to be an SEC East contender yet. In fact, I think Tennessee may have passed them by to the 3rd chair. Should be a good matchup September 15th when they meet at the checkerboards.
Big East
Predominant thought: Can a BCS team lose to an FCS school and still contend for their league title? Pittsburgh had the biggest "ouch" of the week losing to Youngstown State. The Big East appears to be a wide open race, but Pittsburgh's name has to have fallen out of the running based on Week 1. The Panthers now need to fight for bowl eligibility (with Notre Dame and Virginia Tech still on the non-conference schedule).
I was wrong about Pittsburgh. See above. I had them as co-champions. I would replace them with South Florida at this time.
I was right about Syracuse. The Orange(men) stay competitive in the Carrier Dome, but I don't expect the "W" column to get much action this year. Ryan Nassib is a very good quarterback, the 'Cuse just lacks the talent that their basketball counterparts are able to bring in annually.
The Notre Dame conference
Predominant thought: The Irish handled Navy better than expected, does this mean big things in South Bend this season? My current thought is maybe. The schedule looked to be a huge obstacle, but Stanford, Pittsburgh, Michigan and even Michigan State have to look slightly less daunting after week 1. This will be an interesting case to follow.
I was right about BYU. The Cougars ended 2011 playing extremely well, returned key veterans and actually have a defense in Provo. BYU and Ohio are my two BCS busters to watch. The key stretch for BYU is the Sat/Thur back-to-back featuring Utah and Boise State Sept 15/20.
Non-BCS Conferences
Predominant thought: What a bad week for Conference USA. The usually competitive conference went 2-10, including losses to Texas State and Tennessee-Martin. The wins were against Akron and Appalachian State. The silver lining is that 7 losses were to BCS schools...by an average of 24 points.
I was wrong about Houston. The Cougars can thank Pittsburgh for taking some of the spotlight off their terrible loss to Texas State. A new coach and a new quarterback equalled no offense for Houston, who I had winning Conference USA. As you can see above, Houston is by know means alone and could still be a player in the title chase.
I was right about Ohio. The Bobcats did me proud and dispatched Penn State with a solid effort. Ohio, behind Tyler Tettleton and a very good defense, should be favored the rest of the way out, with road games against Marshall and Miami(OH) the apparent toughest tests. I am rooting for a 13-0 MAC teams to see if they qualify for the BCS.
Friday, August 31, 2012
College Football 2012 Bowl Predictions
New Mexico Bowl - UCLA Bruins vs Wyoming Cowboys
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl - Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs Western Michigan Broncos
Poinsettia Bowl - Nevada Wolfpack vs BYU Cougars
Beef O'Brady's Bowl - Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Louisiana-Lafayette Rajun Cajuns
New Orleans Bowl - East Carolina Pirates vs Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
Las Vegas Bowl - Boise State Broncos vs Washington State Huskies
Hawaii Bowl - Fresno State Bulldogs vs Marshall Thundering Herd
Little Caesars Bowl - Norther Illinois Huskies vs Illinois Fighting Illini
Military Bowl - Arkansas State Redwolves vs Bowling Green Falcons
Belk Bowl - Clemson Tigers vs Cincinnati Bearcats
Holiday Bowl - Utah Utes vs Kansas State Wildcats
Champs Bowl - Louisville Cardinals vs Virginia Tech Hokies
Independence Bowl - San Diego State Aztecs vs Georgia Tech Yellowjackets
Texas Bowl - Baylor Bears vs Northwestern Wildcats
Armed Forces Bowl - SMU Mustangs vs Air Force Falcons
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl - California Golden Bears vs Navy Midshipmen
Alamo Bowl - Stanford Cardinal vs West Virginia Mountaineers
Pinstripe Bowl - Pittsburgh Panthers vs Missouri Tigers
Music City Bowl - Virginia Cavaliers vs Vanderbilt Commodores
Insight Bowl - TCU Horned Frogs vs Iowa Hawkeyes
Sun Bowl - Washington Huskies vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Liberty Bowl - Houston Cougars vs Tennessee Volunteers
Chick-Fil-A Bowl - Florida Gators vs NC State Wolfpack
Ticket City Bowl - Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs Texas A&M Aggies
Capital One Bowl - Michigan Wolverines vs Arkansas Razorbacks
Outback Bowl - Nebraska Cornhuskers vs South Carolina Gamecocks
Gator Bowl - Auburn Tigers vs Purdue Boilermakers
Cotton Bowl - Alabama Crimson Tide vs Texas Longhorns
BBVA Compass Bowl - South Florida Bulls vs Mississippi State Tigers
GoDaddy Bowl - Ohio Bobcats vs Florida International Panthers
Rose Bowl - USC Trojans vs Wisconsin Badgers
Orange Bowl - Florida State Seminoles vs Rutgers Scarlett Knights
Fiesta Bowl - Oklahoma Sooners vs Michigan State Spartans
Sugar Bowl - LSU Tigers vs Oklahoma State Cowboys
BCS National Championship - Oregon Ducks vs Georgia Bulldogs
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl - Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs Western Michigan Broncos
Poinsettia Bowl - Nevada Wolfpack vs BYU Cougars
Beef O'Brady's Bowl - Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Louisiana-Lafayette Rajun Cajuns
New Orleans Bowl - East Carolina Pirates vs Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
Las Vegas Bowl - Boise State Broncos vs Washington State Huskies
Hawaii Bowl - Fresno State Bulldogs vs Marshall Thundering Herd
Little Caesars Bowl - Norther Illinois Huskies vs Illinois Fighting Illini
Military Bowl - Arkansas State Redwolves vs Bowling Green Falcons
Belk Bowl - Clemson Tigers vs Cincinnati Bearcats
Holiday Bowl - Utah Utes vs Kansas State Wildcats
Champs Bowl - Louisville Cardinals vs Virginia Tech Hokies
Independence Bowl - San Diego State Aztecs vs Georgia Tech Yellowjackets
Texas Bowl - Baylor Bears vs Northwestern Wildcats
Armed Forces Bowl - SMU Mustangs vs Air Force Falcons
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl - California Golden Bears vs Navy Midshipmen
Alamo Bowl - Stanford Cardinal vs West Virginia Mountaineers
Pinstripe Bowl - Pittsburgh Panthers vs Missouri Tigers
Music City Bowl - Virginia Cavaliers vs Vanderbilt Commodores
Insight Bowl - TCU Horned Frogs vs Iowa Hawkeyes
Sun Bowl - Washington Huskies vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Liberty Bowl - Houston Cougars vs Tennessee Volunteers
Chick-Fil-A Bowl - Florida Gators vs NC State Wolfpack
Ticket City Bowl - Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs Texas A&M Aggies
Capital One Bowl - Michigan Wolverines vs Arkansas Razorbacks
Outback Bowl - Nebraska Cornhuskers vs South Carolina Gamecocks
Gator Bowl - Auburn Tigers vs Purdue Boilermakers
Cotton Bowl - Alabama Crimson Tide vs Texas Longhorns
BBVA Compass Bowl - South Florida Bulls vs Mississippi State Tigers
GoDaddy Bowl - Ohio Bobcats vs Florida International Panthers
Rose Bowl - USC Trojans vs Wisconsin Badgers
Orange Bowl - Florida State Seminoles vs Rutgers Scarlett Knights
Fiesta Bowl - Oklahoma Sooners vs Michigan State Spartans
Sugar Bowl - LSU Tigers vs Oklahoma State Cowboys
BCS National Championship - Oregon Ducks vs Georgia Bulldogs
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