Midwest Regional
Louisville
(1) Kentucky (16) Vermont/Miss Valley State
(8) Gonzaga vs (9) Purdue
Portland
(5) New Mexico vs (12) Colorado
(4) Georgetown vs (13) Long Beach State
Columbus
(6) Temple vs (11) VCU
(3) Michigan vs (14) Belmont
Omaha
(7) Cincinnati vs (10) Virginia
(2) Kansas vs (15) Detroit
West Regional
Omaha
(1) Missouri vs (16) Norfolk State
(8) St. Mary's vs (9) Connecticut
Nashville
(5) Murray State vs (12) Drexel/Iona
(4) Florida State vs (13) South Dakota State
Nashville
(6) Florida vs (11) Southern Miss
(3) Louisville vs (14) Montana
Columbus
(7) San Diego State vs (10) St. Louis
(2) Michigan State vs (15) Long Island
South Regional
Greensboro
(1) North Carolina vs (16) Western Kentucky/Lamar
(8) Notre Dame vs (9) Xavier
Portland
(5) Indiana vs (12) California
(4) Vanderbilt vs (13) Ohio
Louisville
(6) UNLV vs (11) Texas/South Florida
(3) Marquette vs (14) Davidson
Pittsburgh
(7) Kansas State vs (10) Harvard
(2) Ohio State vs (15) Lehigh
East Regional
Pittsburgh
(1) Syracuse vs (16) UNC-Asheville
(8) Iowa State vs (9) Alabama
Albuquerque
(5) Memphis vs (12) BYU
(4) Wisconsin vs (13) St. Bonaventure
Albuquerque
(6) Wichita State vs (11) Colorado State
(3) Baylor vs (14) New Mexico State
Greensboro
(7) Creighton vs (10) West Virginia
(2) Duke vs (15) Loyola-Maryland
Sports Blog specializing in Bracketology
Sunday, March 11, 2012
Friday, March 9, 2012
NCAA Field of 68 - March 9 Midday
- Kentucky overall #1, followed by Syracuse, Kansas and North Carolina
- I have done my best to balance the Top 4 in each region and consider distance. This is not easy, as the West can not always get the 4th team on a line.
- Last 6 In - Xavier, Drexel, South Florida, Iona, NC State and Tennessee (none are locked in)
- Next 6 (no order) - Miami, Seton Hall, Washington, Northwestern, Mississippi
- One First Four game moved to 11 line to accomodate travel.
Omaha
(1) Kansas (16) Norfolk State
(8) GONZAGA vs (9) CONNECTICUT
Portland
(5) TEMPLE vs (12) SOUTH FLORIDA
(4) WICHITA STATE vs (13) SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Columbus
(6) San Diego State vs (11) VCU
(3) Marquette vs (14) BELMONT
Columbus
(7) Florida vs (10) HARVARD
(2) Ohio State vs (15) LEHIGH
South Regional
Louisville
(1) Kentucky vs (16) Mississippi Valley State/Lamar
(8) Cincinnati vs (9) IOWA STATE
Portland
(5) Florida State vs (12) Xavier
(4) Louisville vs (13) Nevada
Albuquerque
(6) CREIGHTON vs (11) WEST VIRGINIA
(3) Baylor vs (14) MONTANA
Columbus
(7) New Mexico vs (10) Southern Miss
(2) Michigan State vs (15) LONG ISLAND
West Regional
Greensboro
(1) North Carolina vs (16) WESTERN KENTUCKY/Stony Brook
(8) KANSAS STATE vs (9) Purdue
Albuquerque
(5) UNLV vs (12) BYU
(4) GEORGETOWN vs (13) Long Beach State
Louisville
(6) Vanderbilt vs (11) NC STATE/IONA
(3) Michigan vs (14) DAVIDSON
Omaha
(7) ST. MARY'S vs (10) California
(2) Missouri vs (15) DETROIT
East Regional
Pittsburgh
(1) Syracuse vs (16) UNC-ASHEVILLE
(8) Alabama vs (9) VIRGINIA
Nashville
(5) MURRAY STATE vs (12) Texas
(4) INDIANA vs (13) Tennessee/DREXEL
Nashville
(6) Notre Dame vs (11) St. Louis
(3) Wisconsin vs (14) Akron
Greensboro
(7) Memphis vs (10) Colorado State
(2) Duke vs (15) LOYOLA-MARYLAND
Thursday, March 8, 2012
Field of 68 - Christmas in March
Today is the day it really starts. The Madness begins as all conference tournaments get underway today, including a plethora of bubble teams in action. Wall-to-Wall College Basketball for the next 3 days (Sunday has become less important in the overall landscape until the Selection Show). Here are the things I am looking for over the next 3 days, as well as some thoughts on my bracket.
The Overall #1 Seed
Kentucky vs Syracuse. Kentucky has been #1 now since Syracuse took their first loss, but it could be argued that the Orange have played a tougher schedule and that the Big East is stronger than the SEC. If only one of them wins their conference tourney, its an easy choice. If both do, it will be interesting which way the committee goes.
The Final Two #1 Seeds
Kentucky and Syracuse are locked in as #1's. Book it. Conceivably Kansas, North Carolina, Ohio State, Missouri, Duke and Michigan State are still alive for the final two #1's. I think Kansas and North Carolina control their own destiny. The messiest scenario has Duke beating UNC in the ACC Final, Missouri beating Kansas in the Big 12 Final and Ohio State and Michigan State playing in the Big 10 Final as the committee is finishing the bracket.
Michigan State minus Brandon Dawson
While not a star player, Dawson plays a significant role for the Spartans, especially his athleticism on defense. If Michigan State does not show well on Friday or Saturday, I think a 3-seed may be more fitting for Sparty.
Mountain West Free-for-All
At times this year, UNLV, San Diego State and New Mexico have all looked the part of best in the Mountain West. It is still difficult to separate these teams, outside of UNLV's win over North Carolina that the other two don't have. The tragic aspect of the Mountain West Tourney is that UNLV is the host, but I am interested in seeing if the results the next 3 days will give a clearer picture of the order of these 3 schools.
Strong Mid-Major vs Decent High-Major
Currently, the 4 through 7 lines are potentially littered with best of the Mid-Majors this year. The second level of High-Major teams have been going backwards lately (think Florida) and there has been little movement from behind with any late chargers. Typically, there are a couple of hot teams that budge their way into this area (think Kansas State last year) and bump a few Mid-Majors into the 8-9 games against the underachieving High-Majors. Ultimately, the committee is going to have to compare a bunch of 10 and 11 loss High-Majors vs some 6 and 7 loss Mid-Majors.
The PAC-12 Debacle
Forget any East Coast bias, the PAC-12 has stunk this year. Their non-conference performance was beyond brutal. California should have the only legitimate at-large shot and even that will be iffy depending on when they would lose in the PAC-12 tourney. That said, the conference tournament should be wide-open from here on out, and I could see Cal, Washington, Arizona, Oregon, Colorado, UCLA or Stanford winning it. Seriously. These teams can lose to anyone on a given day, and none is particularly hot right now.
Bubble-Mania
I challenge the following teams to improve their resume and show why they deserve to be in the tournament ahead of Iona, Drexel and Oral Roberts (and Nevada if the Wolfpack would fall to a good New Mexico State team)...South Florida, Texas, Northwestern, Miami, Xavier, Mississippi State, Tennessee, NC State, Mississippi, St. Joseph's, Dayton and to some extent, St. Louis, Southern Mississippi and Colorado State.
Streaming Bracket Thoughts
The last two #4 seeds are giving me some headaches, so hopefully some clarity will come the next 3 days. I think I will end up with Murray State on the 5-line if Nashville is a viable destination. If the committee sends them to Portland I would be shocked. Despite RPI and SOS, doesn't St. Mary's deserve to be ahead of (even with) Gonzaga after winning both the regular season and post-season WCC titles? Teams I am most likely mis-seeding...St. Louis, Cincinnati, California and Southern Miss.
That's all for now. Merry Christmas in March everyone!!
The Overall #1 Seed
Kentucky vs Syracuse. Kentucky has been #1 now since Syracuse took their first loss, but it could be argued that the Orange have played a tougher schedule and that the Big East is stronger than the SEC. If only one of them wins their conference tourney, its an easy choice. If both do, it will be interesting which way the committee goes.
The Final Two #1 Seeds
Kentucky and Syracuse are locked in as #1's. Book it. Conceivably Kansas, North Carolina, Ohio State, Missouri, Duke and Michigan State are still alive for the final two #1's. I think Kansas and North Carolina control their own destiny. The messiest scenario has Duke beating UNC in the ACC Final, Missouri beating Kansas in the Big 12 Final and Ohio State and Michigan State playing in the Big 10 Final as the committee is finishing the bracket.
Michigan State minus Brandon Dawson
While not a star player, Dawson plays a significant role for the Spartans, especially his athleticism on defense. If Michigan State does not show well on Friday or Saturday, I think a 3-seed may be more fitting for Sparty.
Mountain West Free-for-All
At times this year, UNLV, San Diego State and New Mexico have all looked the part of best in the Mountain West. It is still difficult to separate these teams, outside of UNLV's win over North Carolina that the other two don't have. The tragic aspect of the Mountain West Tourney is that UNLV is the host, but I am interested in seeing if the results the next 3 days will give a clearer picture of the order of these 3 schools.
Strong Mid-Major vs Decent High-Major
Currently, the 4 through 7 lines are potentially littered with best of the Mid-Majors this year. The second level of High-Major teams have been going backwards lately (think Florida) and there has been little movement from behind with any late chargers. Typically, there are a couple of hot teams that budge their way into this area (think Kansas State last year) and bump a few Mid-Majors into the 8-9 games against the underachieving High-Majors. Ultimately, the committee is going to have to compare a bunch of 10 and 11 loss High-Majors vs some 6 and 7 loss Mid-Majors.
The PAC-12 Debacle
Forget any East Coast bias, the PAC-12 has stunk this year. Their non-conference performance was beyond brutal. California should have the only legitimate at-large shot and even that will be iffy depending on when they would lose in the PAC-12 tourney. That said, the conference tournament should be wide-open from here on out, and I could see Cal, Washington, Arizona, Oregon, Colorado, UCLA or Stanford winning it. Seriously. These teams can lose to anyone on a given day, and none is particularly hot right now.
Bubble-Mania
I challenge the following teams to improve their resume and show why they deserve to be in the tournament ahead of Iona, Drexel and Oral Roberts (and Nevada if the Wolfpack would fall to a good New Mexico State team)...South Florida, Texas, Northwestern, Miami, Xavier, Mississippi State, Tennessee, NC State, Mississippi, St. Joseph's, Dayton and to some extent, St. Louis, Southern Mississippi and Colorado State.
Streaming Bracket Thoughts
The last two #4 seeds are giving me some headaches, so hopefully some clarity will come the next 3 days. I think I will end up with Murray State on the 5-line if Nashville is a viable destination. If the committee sends them to Portland I would be shocked. Despite RPI and SOS, doesn't St. Mary's deserve to be ahead of (even with) Gonzaga after winning both the regular season and post-season WCC titles? Teams I am most likely mis-seeding...St. Louis, Cincinnati, California and Southern Miss.
That's all for now. Merry Christmas in March everyone!!
NCAA Field of 68 - March 8, 2012 Edition
- Kentucky overall #1, followed by Syracuse, Kansas and North Carolina
- I have done my best to balance the Top 4 in each region and consider distance. This is not easy, as the West can not always get the 4th team on a line.
- Last 6 In - BYU, Xavier, Northwestern, South Florida, Iona, and Tennessee (none are locked in)
- Next 6 (no order) - Texas, Miami, Seton Hall, Oregon, St. Joseph's, Mississippi
- One First Four game moved to 11 line to accomodate travel, Northwestern, California and BYU moved to 12 line, but ahead of these teams in my S-curve
Omaha
(1) Kansas (16) Texas-Arlington
(8) GONZAGA vs (9) Virginia
Albuquerque
(5) Louisville vs (12) California
(4) Wisconsin vs (13) Long Beach State
Columbus
(6) Florida vs (11) VCU
(3) Marquette vs (14) DAVIDSON
Columbus
(7) CREIGHTON vs (10) Colorado State
(2) Michigan State vs (15) LEHIGH
South Regional
Louisville
(1) Kentucky vs (16) Mississippi Valley State/Stony Brook
(8) Memphis vs (9) Connecticut
Portland
(5) UNLV vs (12) Northwestern
(4) Temple vs (13) SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Nashville
(6) Notre Dame vs (11) Mississippi State
(3) Michigan vs (14) Akron
Greensboro
(7) Kansas State vs (10) HARVARD
(2) Duke vs (15) LONG ISLAND
West Regional
Greensboro
(1) North Carolina vs (16) WESTERN KENTUCKY/UNC-ASHEVILLE
(8) Alabama vs (9) Cincinnati
Nashville
(5) WICHITA STATE vs (12) IONA/Tennessee
(4) Georgetown vs (13) Washington
Albuquerque
(6) San Diego State vs (11) St. Louis
(3) Baylor vs (14) MONTANA
Pittsburgh
(7) ST. MARY'S vs (10) West Virginia
(2) Ohio State vs (15) LOYOLA-MARYLAND
East Regional
Pittsburgh
(1) Syracuse vs (16) Norfolk State
(8) Iowa State vs (9) Purdue
Portland
(5) Florida State vs (12) BYU
(4) Vanderbilt vs (13) Nevada
Louisville
(6) MURRAY STATE vs (11) South Florida/Xavier
(3) Indiana vs (14) BELMONT
Omaha
(7) New Mexico vs (10) Southern Miss
(2) Missouri vs (15) DETROIT
Tuesday, March 6, 2012
NCAA Field of 68 - March 7, 2012 Edition
- Kentucky overall #1, followed by Syracuse, Kansas and North Carolina
- I have done my best to balance the Top 4 in each region and consider distance. This is not easy, as the West can not always get the 4th team on a line.
- Last 5 In - BYU, Xavier, Northwestern, Iona, and Tennessee
- Next 6 (no order) - Texas, Miami, Seton Hall, Oregon, St. Joseph's, Mississippi
- One First Four game moved to 11 line to accomodate travel, Northwestern and BYU moved to 12 line, but ahead of these teams in my S-curve
Omaha
(1) Kansas (16) Texas-Arlington
(8) GONZAGA vs (9) Virginia
Albuquerque
(5) Louisville vs (12) VCU
(4) Wisconsin vs (13) Long Beach State
Columbus
(6) Florida vs (11) California
(3) Marquette vs (14) DAVIDSON
Columbus
(7) CREIGHTON vs (10) Colorado State
(2) Michigan State vs (15) Bucknell
South Regional
Louisville
(1) Kentucky vs (16) Mississippi Valley State/Stony Brook
(8) Memphis vs (9) Connecticut
Portland
(5) UNLV vs (12) Northwestern
(4) Temple vs (13) SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Nashville
(6) Notre Dame vs (11) Mississippi State
(3) Michigan vs (14) LOYOLA-MARYLAND
Greensboro
(7) Kansas State vs (10) Harvard
(2) Duke vs (15) Long Island
West Regional
Greensboro
(1) North Carolina vs (16) WESTERN KENTUCKY/Savannah State
(8) Alabama vs (9) West Virginia
Nashville
(5) WICHITA STATE vs (12) IONA/Tennessee
(4) Georgetown vs (13) Washington
Albuquerque
(6) San Diego State vs (11) St. Louis
(3) Baylor vs (14) Akron
Pittsburgh
(7) ST. MARY'S vs (10) Cincinnati
(2) Ohio State vs (15) DETROIT
East Regional
Pittsburgh
(1) Syracuse vs (16) UNC-ASHEVILLE
(8) Iowa State vs (9) Purdue
Portland
(5) Florida State vs (12) BYU
(4) Vanderbilt vs (13) Nevada
Louisville
(6) MURRAY STATE vs (11) Seton Hall/Xavier
(3) Indiana vs (14) BELMONT
Omaha
(7) New Mexico vs (10) Southern Miss
(2) Missouri vs (15) Montana
NCAA Field of 68 - March 6, 2012 Edition
- Kentucky overall #1, followed by Syracuse, Kansas and North Carolina
- I have done my best to balance the Top 4 in each region and consider distance. This is not easy, as the West can not always get the 4th team on a line.
- Last 5 In - BYU, Xavier, Northwestern, Iona, and Tennessee
- Next 6 (no order) - Texas, Miami, Seton Hall, Oregon, St. Joseph's, Mississippi
- One First Four game moved to 11 line to accomodate travel, Northwestern and BYU moved to 12 line, but ahead of these teams in my S-curve
Omaha
(1) Kansas (16) Texas-Arlington
(8) GONZAGA vs (9) Virginia
Albuquerque
(5) Louisville vs (12) VCU
(4) Wisconsin vs (13) Long Beach State
Columbus
(6) Florida vs (11) California
(3) Marquette vs (14) DAVIDSON
Columbus
(7) CREIGHTON vs (10) Colorado State
(2) Michigan State vs (15) Bucknell
South Regional
Louisville
(1) Kentucky vs (16) Mississippi Valley State/Stony Brook
(8) Memphis vs (9) Connecticut
Portland
(5) UNLV vs (12) Northwestern
(4) Temple vs (13) South Dakota State
Nashville
(6) Notre Dame vs (11) Mississippi State
(3) Michigan vs (14) LOYOLA-MARYLAND
Greensboro
(7) Kansas State vs (10) Harvard
(2) Duke vs (15) Long Island
West Regional
Greensboro
(1) North Carolina vs (16) North Texas/Savannah State
(8) Alabama vs (9) St. Louis
Nashville
(5) WICHITA STATE vs (12) IONA/Tennessee
(4) Georgetown vs (13) Washington
Albuquerque
(6) San Diego State vs (11) Southern Miss
(3) Baylor vs (14) Akron
Pittsburgh
(7) ST. MARY'S vs (10) Cincinnati
(2) Ohio State vs (15) Detroit
East Regional
Pittsburgh
(1) Syracuse vs (16) UNC-ASHEVILLE
(8) Iowa State vs (9) Purdue
Portland
(5) Florida State vs (12) BYU
(4) Vanderbilt vs (13) Nevada
Louisville
(6) MURRAY STATE vs (11) South Florida/Xavier
(3) Indiana vs (14) BELMONT
Omaha
(7) New Mexico vs (10) West Virginia
(2) Missouri vs (15) Montana
Monday, March 5, 2012
Breaking Down the Field - March 5, 2012
With one week to go, some teams are playing for seed, while other are trying to add to their resumes in hopes of making the field. Here is a lock/bubble breakdown as I have it, with a little additional bubble analysis.
LOCKS (55)
ACC(4) - North Carolina, Duke, Florida State, Virginia
Big East(5) - Syracuse, Marquette, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame
Big 12(5) - Kansas, Missouri, Baylor, Kansas State, Iowa State
Big 10(6) - Ohio State, Michigan State, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Purdue
SEC(4) - Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Florida, Alabama
Mountain West(3) - UNLV, San Diego State, Wyoming
Atlantic 10(2) - Temple, St. Louis
Missouri Valley(2) - Creighton, Wichita State
West Coast(2) - Gonzaga, St. Mary's
Conference USA(1) - Memphis
Ohio Valley(1) - Murray State
Atlantic Sun(1) - Belmont
Big South (1) - UNC-Asheville
Colonial (1) - VCU
Metro Atlantic (1) - Loyola-Maryland
Southern (1) - Davidson
Other Automatic Bids (15) - PAC-12, WAC, Ivy League, Horizon, Summit, Mid-American, Sun Belt, Patriot, Big West, Big Sky, Northeast, Southland, America East, MEAC, SWAC
That leaves 13 bids. Connecticut is probably safe, but beating DePaul on Tuesday would take any doubt I have away. If the Huskies win, they would face West Virginia in the 2nd round. I also believe the Mountaineers are safe, but again, an extra win never hurts. Cincinnati finally has a palatable RPI, but the non-conference schedule does not go away. They have to wait two days for a probable match-up with Georgetown. A win over the Hoyas will for sure do it, although I think they are fine as well.
That leaves 10 bids, with a few teams closer to those bids than others.
Southern Mississippi (22-7, RPI 17) is a bit of a lightning rod, but with 3 Top 50 wins and 9 Top 100 wins, the Golden Eagles are likely part of the field. They also own a road win against Colorado State and home wins against South Florida and Mississippi, all teams on the bubble. That said, beating Rice/East Carolina and avoiding a 4th 100+ loss would remove any doubt.
Colorado State (18-10, RPI 22) is the epitome of the "Homecourt Hero", but when three of those are against UNLV, New Mexico and San Diego State, you can't argue with some of the quality. The Rams are 8-9 against the RPI top 100 and have just one bad loss. My research indicated 6 road/neutral wins was suggested, so a win over TCU would take care of that and likely salt away a bid.
California (23-8, RPI 37) is in a bit of a precarious position. The loss at Stanford denied the Golden Bears a share of the PAC-12 title, so a loss in the PAC-12 tournament would leave Cal without either a regular-season or post-season title in a likely max 2-bid league. While Cal sits with 2 Top 50 wins today, they have 0 Top 49 wins. If Oregon falls one spot, that number changes. The 7 top 100 wins stack up well with some of the others, but the lack of a big win could spell doom come Sunday if the Golden Bears need an at-large berth.
BYU (23-8, RPI 44) is sitting and waiting and hoping they are not forgotten. They have 3 Top 50 wins, including their one big win at home vs Gonzaga. The other two are Nevada(46) and Oregon(50) and BYU sits at 5-6 vs the Top 100, so the resume isn't sparkling. The worry for BYU should be a shrinking bubble and wins by their fellow bubble partners.
Iona (25-7, RPI 43) needs to overcome the stigma of the Metro Atlantic Conference, a conference that has never received multiple bids. The Gaels have just one top 50 win over Nevada(46) and 5 Top 100 wins. In their defense, it only took them 2 games to have 1 top 50 win, while Northwestern has had 11 chances, South Florida 10, Mississippi and Washington 7 and they each only have 1 Top 50 win as well. The 5 Top 100 wins currently exceeds that of Texas(4), Washington(4) and Miami(3) and matches that of Creighton, Iowa State, BYU, Northwestern and Oregon. I guess what I am saying, is they should not automatically be dismissed.
Mississippi State (21-10, RPI 63) hopes a 2-game winning streak to finish the season will erase the lingering doubts precipitated by a 5-game losing streak. The RPI is shaky, but the Rebels have 3 top 50 wins and are 8-8 vs the Top 100. They have a good non-conference win against West Virginia and a key road win at Vandy. Despite that, a loss to Georgia in the SEC first round will send the RPI lower and put them in great danger.
Tennessee (17-13, RPI 75) has won 8 of 9 and owns victories over Vanderbilt, Connecticut and a sweep of Florida. The RPI is still too low, so the Vols need to do some damage in the SEC tournament. Potential games against Mississippi and then either Vanderbilt or Mississippi State provide UT with the opportunities. I think two wins gets it done for the Vols.
Mississippi (18-12, RPI 58) is the forgotten team in the SEC. They have the same problem as others, with a 1-6 record vs the RPI top 50, but their 7 top 100 wins exceed many of their counterparts. They own victories over Alabama, as well as fellow bubble squads Mississippi State and Miami. They start with Auburn in the SEC tournament, with Tennessee waiting. Winning the first two will get them more in the discussion, but a run to the SEC Championship game is probably needed.
South Florida (18-12, RPI 45) hopes a 12-6 Big East record is at least in the minds of the committee. Wins over Seton Hall, Cincinnati and at Louisville give them quality wins, but is there enough? The 6 seed in the Big East tournament does not initially help, as a game vs Rutgers/Villanova is only a losing proposition. The Bulls might need a quarterfinal win over Notre Dame depending on what happens around them.
Seton Hall (19-11, RPI 60) just lost to DePaul by 28. They have a respectable 4 top 50 wins, including one over Georgetown and are 7-8 vs the Top 100. They are just 4-9 in their last 13, and while the committee does not look at that, they are human. Providence is first up on Tuesday, followed by an opportunity to play their way in against Louisville. Based upon Saturday, the Pirates will not even be playing by Wednesday.
Xavier (19-11, RPI 57) has had a tale of two seasons. A hot start included wins over Purdue, Cincinnati and at Vanderbilt. Then the brawl came and the rest of the season has been average at best. The committee will give some consideration to their 0-3 record during the suspensions, but how much nobody knows. A win over Dayton/George Washington should be enough, but a loss in the quarterfinal might send them to the NIT.
Northwestern (18-12, RPI 48) is a committee nightmare. A top SOS, no bad losses, but only one big win at home vs Michigan State. With just 5 RPI top 100 wins, the Wildcats are on shaky ground. They get Minnesota first on Thursday, which would add a Top 100 win. They would then get Michigan, who they played tough in two losses earlier in the year. They need two wins to feel safe with everything else going on around them.
Texas (19-12, RPI 52) has 3 RPI top 50 wins (Temple, Iowa State and Kansas State0 but only 4 top 100 wins, putting them on shaky footing despite a strong SOS. They get Iowa State and then likely Missouri, a chance to get to 6 top 100 wins if they can get to the Big 12 Final.
Miami (18-11, RPI 54) has two big wins (at Duke, vs Florida State), but just 3 total against the Top 100. Throw in a 5-8 Road/Neutral record and things don't look good for the Hurricanes. They start with Georgia Tech and have Florida State waiting in Round 2. Duke is the Round 3 possibility. I think the Hurricanes need to run all the way to the ACC final to solidify a bid.
Washington (21-9, RPI 53) has the PAC-12 regular season title and that's about it. Currently 1 Top 50 win (Oregon(50)) and 4 Top 100 wins lends to a pretty weak at-large resume. A semifinal win over Arizona would add one more good win, but my suggestion for all PAC-12 teams would be to win the tournament. That includes Oregon (22-8, RPI 50), who can add 2 top 100 wins if it makes the final, but would have to be chosen over the regular season champion to get a berth.
St. Joseph's (19-12, RPI 55) has wins over Creighton, Temple and Drexel amongst its 6 top 100 wins. A win over St. Bonaventure may get them another one, but I think they need to also beat Temple in the A-10 semis to play their way into the field.
If NC State beats Virginia and North Carolina, they re-enter the discussion. Dayton needs a run to the A-10 finals to gain any consideration. Drexel is likely done, especially in comparisons to Iona and Oral Roberts.
LOCKS (55)
ACC(4) - North Carolina, Duke, Florida State, Virginia
Big East(5) - Syracuse, Marquette, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame
Big 12(5) - Kansas, Missouri, Baylor, Kansas State, Iowa State
Big 10(6) - Ohio State, Michigan State, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Purdue
SEC(4) - Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Florida, Alabama
Mountain West(3) - UNLV, San Diego State, Wyoming
Atlantic 10(2) - Temple, St. Louis
Missouri Valley(2) - Creighton, Wichita State
West Coast(2) - Gonzaga, St. Mary's
Conference USA(1) - Memphis
Ohio Valley(1) - Murray State
Atlantic Sun(1) - Belmont
Big South (1) - UNC-Asheville
Colonial (1) - VCU
Metro Atlantic (1) - Loyola-Maryland
Southern (1) - Davidson
Other Automatic Bids (15) - PAC-12, WAC, Ivy League, Horizon, Summit, Mid-American, Sun Belt, Patriot, Big West, Big Sky, Northeast, Southland, America East, MEAC, SWAC
That leaves 13 bids. Connecticut is probably safe, but beating DePaul on Tuesday would take any doubt I have away. If the Huskies win, they would face West Virginia in the 2nd round. I also believe the Mountaineers are safe, but again, an extra win never hurts. Cincinnati finally has a palatable RPI, but the non-conference schedule does not go away. They have to wait two days for a probable match-up with Georgetown. A win over the Hoyas will for sure do it, although I think they are fine as well.
That leaves 10 bids, with a few teams closer to those bids than others.
Southern Mississippi (22-7, RPI 17) is a bit of a lightning rod, but with 3 Top 50 wins and 9 Top 100 wins, the Golden Eagles are likely part of the field. They also own a road win against Colorado State and home wins against South Florida and Mississippi, all teams on the bubble. That said, beating Rice/East Carolina and avoiding a 4th 100+ loss would remove any doubt.
Colorado State (18-10, RPI 22) is the epitome of the "Homecourt Hero", but when three of those are against UNLV, New Mexico and San Diego State, you can't argue with some of the quality. The Rams are 8-9 against the RPI top 100 and have just one bad loss. My research indicated 6 road/neutral wins was suggested, so a win over TCU would take care of that and likely salt away a bid.
California (23-8, RPI 37) is in a bit of a precarious position. The loss at Stanford denied the Golden Bears a share of the PAC-12 title, so a loss in the PAC-12 tournament would leave Cal without either a regular-season or post-season title in a likely max 2-bid league. While Cal sits with 2 Top 50 wins today, they have 0 Top 49 wins. If Oregon falls one spot, that number changes. The 7 top 100 wins stack up well with some of the others, but the lack of a big win could spell doom come Sunday if the Golden Bears need an at-large berth.
BYU (23-8, RPI 44) is sitting and waiting and hoping they are not forgotten. They have 3 Top 50 wins, including their one big win at home vs Gonzaga. The other two are Nevada(46) and Oregon(50) and BYU sits at 5-6 vs the Top 100, so the resume isn't sparkling. The worry for BYU should be a shrinking bubble and wins by their fellow bubble partners.
Iona (25-7, RPI 43) needs to overcome the stigma of the Metro Atlantic Conference, a conference that has never received multiple bids. The Gaels have just one top 50 win over Nevada(46) and 5 Top 100 wins. In their defense, it only took them 2 games to have 1 top 50 win, while Northwestern has had 11 chances, South Florida 10, Mississippi and Washington 7 and they each only have 1 Top 50 win as well. The 5 Top 100 wins currently exceeds that of Texas(4), Washington(4) and Miami(3) and matches that of Creighton, Iowa State, BYU, Northwestern and Oregon. I guess what I am saying, is they should not automatically be dismissed.
Mississippi State (21-10, RPI 63) hopes a 2-game winning streak to finish the season will erase the lingering doubts precipitated by a 5-game losing streak. The RPI is shaky, but the Rebels have 3 top 50 wins and are 8-8 vs the Top 100. They have a good non-conference win against West Virginia and a key road win at Vandy. Despite that, a loss to Georgia in the SEC first round will send the RPI lower and put them in great danger.
Tennessee (17-13, RPI 75) has won 8 of 9 and owns victories over Vanderbilt, Connecticut and a sweep of Florida. The RPI is still too low, so the Vols need to do some damage in the SEC tournament. Potential games against Mississippi and then either Vanderbilt or Mississippi State provide UT with the opportunities. I think two wins gets it done for the Vols.
Mississippi (18-12, RPI 58) is the forgotten team in the SEC. They have the same problem as others, with a 1-6 record vs the RPI top 50, but their 7 top 100 wins exceed many of their counterparts. They own victories over Alabama, as well as fellow bubble squads Mississippi State and Miami. They start with Auburn in the SEC tournament, with Tennessee waiting. Winning the first two will get them more in the discussion, but a run to the SEC Championship game is probably needed.
South Florida (18-12, RPI 45) hopes a 12-6 Big East record is at least in the minds of the committee. Wins over Seton Hall, Cincinnati and at Louisville give them quality wins, but is there enough? The 6 seed in the Big East tournament does not initially help, as a game vs Rutgers/Villanova is only a losing proposition. The Bulls might need a quarterfinal win over Notre Dame depending on what happens around them.
Seton Hall (19-11, RPI 60) just lost to DePaul by 28. They have a respectable 4 top 50 wins, including one over Georgetown and are 7-8 vs the Top 100. They are just 4-9 in their last 13, and while the committee does not look at that, they are human. Providence is first up on Tuesday, followed by an opportunity to play their way in against Louisville. Based upon Saturday, the Pirates will not even be playing by Wednesday.
Xavier (19-11, RPI 57) has had a tale of two seasons. A hot start included wins over Purdue, Cincinnati and at Vanderbilt. Then the brawl came and the rest of the season has been average at best. The committee will give some consideration to their 0-3 record during the suspensions, but how much nobody knows. A win over Dayton/George Washington should be enough, but a loss in the quarterfinal might send them to the NIT.
Northwestern (18-12, RPI 48) is a committee nightmare. A top SOS, no bad losses, but only one big win at home vs Michigan State. With just 5 RPI top 100 wins, the Wildcats are on shaky ground. They get Minnesota first on Thursday, which would add a Top 100 win. They would then get Michigan, who they played tough in two losses earlier in the year. They need two wins to feel safe with everything else going on around them.
Texas (19-12, RPI 52) has 3 RPI top 50 wins (Temple, Iowa State and Kansas State0 but only 4 top 100 wins, putting them on shaky footing despite a strong SOS. They get Iowa State and then likely Missouri, a chance to get to 6 top 100 wins if they can get to the Big 12 Final.
Miami (18-11, RPI 54) has two big wins (at Duke, vs Florida State), but just 3 total against the Top 100. Throw in a 5-8 Road/Neutral record and things don't look good for the Hurricanes. They start with Georgia Tech and have Florida State waiting in Round 2. Duke is the Round 3 possibility. I think the Hurricanes need to run all the way to the ACC final to solidify a bid.
Washington (21-9, RPI 53) has the PAC-12 regular season title and that's about it. Currently 1 Top 50 win (Oregon(50)) and 4 Top 100 wins lends to a pretty weak at-large resume. A semifinal win over Arizona would add one more good win, but my suggestion for all PAC-12 teams would be to win the tournament. That includes Oregon (22-8, RPI 50), who can add 2 top 100 wins if it makes the final, but would have to be chosen over the regular season champion to get a berth.
St. Joseph's (19-12, RPI 55) has wins over Creighton, Temple and Drexel amongst its 6 top 100 wins. A win over St. Bonaventure may get them another one, but I think they need to also beat Temple in the A-10 semis to play their way into the field.
If NC State beats Virginia and North Carolina, they re-enter the discussion. Dayton needs a run to the A-10 finals to gain any consideration. Drexel is likely done, especially in comparisons to Iona and Oral Roberts.
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