College Football Week 11 - Jabesblog Picks

Season Record:  207-174-5 (ATS) 295-91 (Straight-Up)
Last Week: 22-25-1 (ATS)  38-10 (Straight-Up)

Week 10 represents a new low mark, but I didn't like the week going in, so that is what I get.  Week 11 I am going to go with more gut and only look at trends when I need to.  I'll make the picks free again this week.

WEEK 11 PICKS

MAC
Buffalo (-4) 31, Ohio 24  (W)
Bowling Green (-23.5) 38, Miami, OH 10  (W)
Ball State (-20) 45, Central Michigan 21  (T)
Western Michigan (-2.5) 24, Eastern Michigan 20  (L)

Nothing here that I love, but I am a proponent of taking the favorite in MAC games.

BIG 12
Baylor (-15) 52, Oklahoma 31  (W)
TCU 23, Iowa State (+7) 20  (W)
*Kansas State (+3) 38, Texas Tech 33  (W)
*Texas (-6.5) 34, West Virginia 17  (W)
Oklahoma State (-31) 55, Kansas 13  (W)

I would never have thought I would give 15 points to Oklahoma, but Baylor is so good at home and the Texas games still sticks in my head.  I feel like Bill Snyder has his team finally figured out and Texas Tech is doing their annual last season swoon.  Texas looks strong and I love only having to give 6.5.

SUN BELT
Louisiana-Lafayette (-13.5) 45, Troy 27  (L)
Western Kentucky (-6.5) 37, Army 28  (L)
Louisiana-Monroe (-4.5) 27, Arkansas State 20  (L)

All 3 favorites in the Sun Belt as well, but none would be considered strong plays in my mind.

PAC-12
*Oregon (-10.5) 43, Stanford 22  (L)
Washington 41, Colorado (+28) 17  (L)
*Arizona State (-6.5) 46, Utah 27  (L)
USC (-16.5) 35, California 13  (W)
Arizona (-1.5) 34, UCLA 31  (L)

Oregon's last 20 wins have come by more than 10.5.  I think Oregon wins tonight.  I also love Arizona State this week, which probably means they lose at Utah.

AAC
Louisville (-27) 45, Connecticut 10  (L)
*Cincinnati (-8) 48, SMU 31  (L)
UCF 37, Houston (+11) 34  (W)

Connecticut can't score, so Louisville covering probably hinges on whether they get off to a hot start.  I guess I am back on the Cincinnati train, I like them a lot this week at home.  Houston finally failed me last week, but I will stick with them again to keep it close against UCF.

MWC
New Mexico (-3) 42, Air Force 35  (W)
Fresno State 38, Wyoming (+8.5) 37  (L)
Colorado State (-8) 44, Nevada 31  (W)
*Navy (-16.5) 42, Hawaii 21  (L)
Utah State (-14.5) 41, UNLV 20  (L)
*San Jose State (-6.5) 37, San Diego State 24  (L)

Hawaii has a 2nd straight road game on the mainland, so Navy looks like a strong pick.  Fresno State has been too Jekyll and Hyde to trust them on the road.  I also really like the way San Jose State is playing and they get the Aztecs at home.

Big Ten
Iowa (-14.5) 27, Purdue 7  (W)
Indiana (-9.5) 40, Illinois 28  (W)
Minnesota (-2.5) 26, Penn State 20  (W)
Michigan (-6.5) 37, Nebraska 24  (L)

All favorites in the Big 10 too, but Iowa is the only one who has to cover substantial points and Purdue can't score.  Besides Michigan, Penn State has really struggled and Minnesota is playing with confidence.  Michigan has been a different team at home.  I am least confident in Indiana, who may have realized it is another season home for the holidays.

ACC
Duke (-10) 38, NC State 22  (W)
*Florida State (-34.5) 48, Wake Forest 3  (W)
Miami, FL 20, Virginia Tech (+6.5) 17  (W)
North Carolina 27, Virginia (+13.5) 20  (L)
*Notre Dame (-3.5) 31, Pittsburgh 17  (L)
Boston College 38, New Mexico State (+24.5) 17  (W)
Maryland (-5.5) 27, Syracuse 17  (L)

Giving 10 points with Duke seems odd and uncomfortable.  Without Campanaro, how does Wake score?  Without Duke Johnson, can Miami move the ball?  Pittsburgh seems like a mess, even if they do always play Notre Dame well.  Boston College rarely has a line like this and it is on the road.

C-USA
East Carolina 34, Tulsa (+16.5) 24  (L)
Marshall (-23.5) 52, UAB 24  (W)
UTSA 27, Tulane (+8.5) 24  (W)
*North Texas (-25) 34, UTEP 0  (W)
Middle Tennessee 34, Florida International (+18.5) 21  (L)
Louisiana Tech (-16) 34, Southern Mississippi 9  (W)

East Carolina hasn't been impressive enough recently for me to think they can blow out Tulsa.  I am sticking with Tulane after they did me wrong last week.  Middle Tennessee has trouble blowing teams out.  If Louisian Tech can beat FIU by 16, they can definitely do the same to USM.

SEC
*Missouri (-13) 37, Kentucky 17  (W)
Auburn (-7) 34, Tennessee 20  (W)
Florida 23, *Vanderbilt (+10.5) 21  (W)
Ole Miss 30, Arkansas (+17) 20  (W)
Texas A&M (-19) 55, Mississippi State 28  (L)
LSU (+11.5) 31, Alabama 30  (L)

I really like Vandy getting 10.5 in the swamp.  Florida has yet to prove they can be elite this year.  I would not be surprised if the Commodores pulled the upset.  Missouri had one bad quarter, otherwise they have been dominant enough to beat a pretty bad Kentucky team by a comfortable margin.  Finally, I was going to take LSU ATS anyway, so why not take just my second upset of the entire week in 49 games.  BCS chaos?  Try having the SEC on the outside looking in...

Record This Week:  26-22-1    (38-11 SU)
Record This Year:  233-196-6  54.3%